Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
666
FXUS64 KFWD 251046
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be well above normal through Thursday. A cold
front will bring temperatures back to normal Friday night
through Saturday night.
- Another warming trend will take place Sunday through the middle
of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
IR imagery tonight reveals large scale anticyclonic flow around a
dominant mid/upper ridge currently moving slowly eastward over the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, North and Central Texas is
situated between a ridge just off the East Coast and a lee-Rockies
trough. The resulting return flow at the surface combined with the
approaching ridge at the upper levels will keep temperatures well
above normal through the midweek period. Highs this afternoon
will climb well into the 80s, with some lower 90s likely along and
west of Highway 281. Some low clouds will linger along and south
of I-20, but skies will become sunny in the afternoon. Lows
generally in the lower to mid 60s can otherwise be expected this
morning and again tonight/Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
Strong ridging aloft will ensure that the warm streak continues
into Thursday, with highs again in the 80s to lower 90s, or around
15 to 20 degrees above normal. By Thursday night, a deepening
trough along the East Coast will compromise the ridge along its
northeast flank, while simultaneously forcing a cold front
southward through the Plains. The front will cross the Red River
Friday morning, the I-20 corridor around midday, eventually
clearing the southern Central Texas counties late afternoon or
Friday evening. The high temperature forecast will be a bit tricky
and highly dependent on the arrival time of the front, but there
should be a pretty clear north-south gradient. The NBM numbers
look reasonable, with highs ranging from the mid 70s along the Red
River to the mid 80s across Central Texas.
A few rain showers will be possible in the vicinity of the front,
but subsidence aloft will keep most areas dry. The passage of the
front will bring a short break from the above-normal temperature
streak. Lows in the upper 40s and 50s are expected Friday night
and Saturday night, along with Saturday highs in the 60s and 70s.
The cool air will be short-lived, as the ridge will restrengthen
aloft while return flow commences on Sunday. Highs in the 80s will
return Sunday and Monday, with some low 90s back into the picture
by Tuesday. Any significant rain chances will likely have to wait
until the middle part of next week (April 1st) with the arrival
of a shortwave trough and a Pacific front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026
A northward surge of morning stratocumulus has become split into
2 distinct areas...one headed for eastern portions of the DFW
Metroplex and the other over western portions of Central Texas.
Both are spreading north, so will keep the TEMPO group for MVFR at
KDAL, KDFW and KGKY 12-16Z, but hold off another hour (13-16Z)
for KAFW and KFTW, as it will take the western swath longer to
arrive.
KACT had a brief bout of low cigs about an hour ago, but is
currently positioned in between the 2 areas. Will still likely
keep a TEMPO for MVFR at KACT, as recent guidance indicates this
gap closing in a couple of hours. All cigs will scatter 16-17Z,
giving way to VFR and south winds increasing to 15-20 kt this
afternoon. Similar conditions are expected Thursday morning,
which will be added at the end of the KACT TAF cycle.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 64 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 87 63 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 85 63 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 88 61 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 87 63 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 88 65 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 87 62 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 88 64 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 88 62 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 90 60 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
