Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

956
FXUS64 KFWD 040704
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
104 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in
  the 30s are expected today and tonight. A few sprinkles are
  possible in North Texas today but little or no measurable precip
  is expected.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
  from Thursday through this weekend with highs in the 60s/70s to
  near 80.

- Low rain chances return early next week along with continued
  warm above-normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1246 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

It`s a cooler morning across North and Central Texas in the wake
of yesterday`s cold front, with current temperatures in the low
40s north to low 50s south. With dewpoints in the 30s, lows are
expected to drop into the 30s to around 40 by sunrise. However,
mid level clouds spreading southward from Oklahoma could keep lows
from dropping as much as forecast. Highs today will only reach
the 50s to low 60s, which is right around or slightly below normal
for early February. An upper level positive-tilt trough currently
seen on water vapor imagery diving southward across the Southern
Plains will move across North and Central Texas today, bringing
more widespread clouds and a few sprinkles or light rain showers
to North Texas this morning, mainly across our northwest counties.
After that, another cold night is anticipated tonight as skies
clear out allowing lows to drop into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

After the lengthy period of below normal temperatures in late
January, the opposite will occur with above normal temperatures
beginning Thursday and lasting through at least Tuesday of next
week - all thanks to a large upper ridge building northward from
the western Gulf up into western Canada. Highs look to reach the
60s/70s on Thursday and 70s to around 80 from Friday through
Sunday per NBM guidance. Several models are notably even warmer
during this timeframe, although still well below record highs
which are in the mid to upper 80s. Low level flow will remain
weak from Thursday through Sunday with no notable return flow
from the Gulf, so no rain is anticipated. By early next week,
stronger southerly flow from the Gulf will setup as a large H5
trough takes hold across the western CONUS, while an upper low
noted on 00Z guidance moves slowly from northern Mexico into
Texas from Monday through Wednesday. This system could bring us
some low rain chances these three days, but guidance remains
vastly different on this potential and only slight chance pops
are warranted at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period with scattered low
clouds around 5-10k ft and broken mid level clouds between 10-20k
ft. North winds up to 10 knots this morning will increase up to
around 15 knots and become more northwesterly this afternoon,
before decreasing again below 10 knots after 04/01Z.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  35  66  43 /  10   0   0   0
Waco                60  35  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               53  31  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              56  30  66  38 /  10   0   0   0
McKinney            56  32  65  40 /  10   0   0   0
Dallas              58  36  65  45 /  10   0   0   0
Terrell             57  32  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           61  35  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              61  34  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       59  31  69  40 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion