Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
962
FXUS64 KFWD 131120
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
520 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog will affect portions of Central Texas through
the morning before visibilities improve by midday. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect.
- A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight leading
to colder and windy conditions on Sunday. Light rain and drizzle
may accompany this front`s passage.
- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region next week
with minimal rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Yesterday`s weak stalled frontal boundary and the nearly calm
winds in its vicinity are serving as an impetus for dense fog
development across Central Texas. Higher surface dewpoints remain
pooled along and south of this boundary where a Dense Fog
Advisory is already in effect, but additional fog development
could occur through parts of East Texas yet this morning along a
northward protrusion of the moist axis. We`ll continue to monitor
trends for any necessary expansion of the current Advisory. Slow
partial clearing of fog and low stratus should occur through the
daytime before a strong cold front arrives this evening and
tonight. This frontal boundary and its attendant ascent should
support additional low cloud cover and perhaps pockets of light
rain and drizzle from late this afternoon into tonight. Post-
frontal northerly winds will also increase to 15-20 mph with some
gusts of 25-30 mph immediately following its passage. Strong cold
advection will send overnight lows into the upper 20s and 30s for
most locations, some 30+ degrees colder than this afternoon`s
highs.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Sunday morning will feature crisp wind chills in the teens and
20s following the overnight frontal passage, and cold advection
will offset diabatic heating with afternoon highs only reaching
the 40s. Wind speeds will gradually lessen throughout the daytime,
becoming calm on Sunday night. Despite a cold start to Monday
morning, an abrupt warming trend will commence through the first
half of the workweek as a warm advection regime becomes
reestablished, with highs returning to above normal as early as
Tuesday. Another fast-moving Central Plains system could sweep
through the area during the second half of the week, but the
degree of moisture recovery preceding it remains uncertain. For
now, rain chances with an additional late week frontal passage are
too slim to mention, with an abnormally warm and dry forecast
being the most likely solution.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Low stratus near 2 kft has advanced to the immediate southern
fringes of the D10 TAF sites as of 11z, and should be able to
overspread the Metroplex airports within the next few hours. MVFR
conditions should be the prevailing condition for North Texas
airports through the daytime, with perhaps brief scattering to VFR
occurring later this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. For
Waco, IFR/LIFR conditions currently prevail with fog reducing
visibility to less than 1 mile, and these conditions are unlikely
to improve until late morning. The strong cold front will push
through Metroplex airports beginning around 03z and Waco closer to
05-06z, and may be accompanied by patchy mist/drizzle and a brief
drop to IFR cigs. Gusty north winds to 25 kts will exist behind
the front into Sunday morning with cig heights gradually lifting
to VFR beyond 12z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 31 43 28 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 66 39 47 30 / 20 10 0 0
Paris 59 31 43 23 / 10 10 0 0
Denton 63 26 42 24 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 62 29 43 25 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 63 33 46 29 / 0 10 0 0
Terrell 64 33 45 25 / 10 10 0 0
Corsicana 67 40 50 29 / 20 10 0 0
Temple 69 39 49 28 / 20 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 67 29 46 26 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ147-148-
156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
