Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
796
FXUS64 KFWD 020558
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20-40% storm coverage is forecast today and Wednesday. A few
storms could produce strong gusty winds and heavy rain, but
widespread severe weather is not expected.
- Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Today will be another warm day as upper level ridging continues
to keep afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Minute weaknesses in the ridge overtop of the region will allow
for diurnally-driven chances for showers and storms this
afternoon and evening, though more nebulous forcing will keep the
overall coverage scattered in nature. Most locations would have
the potential to see isolated development, however, remnant
outflow boundaries from early morning convection and an incoming
backdoor cold front will provide the better locations for
convective development later today. With the aforementioned lack
of good ascent, the severe threat will remain low. However, we
cannot rule out an isolated severe wind gust this afternoon. More
confidently, a few storms may become strong with gusty, erratic
winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning the main hazards. As the
backdoor front moves from NE to SW, so will the showers and
storms. Coverage will begin to wane with the loss of daytime
heating, with minimal to maybe isolated convection expected
overnight into Wednesday morning across our southwest.
Another day with afternoon pop up convection in portions of the
region is likely as continued disturbances meander across the
ridge, Coverage will be a bit more isolated in nature and more
confined to western portions of North and Central Texas, so not
everyone will see a shower or storm on Wednesday. Once again,
gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain will be the main
hazards through midweek. The up-sloping easterly winds from the
backdoor cold front will aid in keeping temperatures a bit more
mild for the beginning of June, with highs peaking in the 80s to
low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
Daily chances for showers and storms will persist through the
rest of the week into the weekend, with with an uptick in
coverage expected particularly from Friday to Sunday. This
increase in coverage is due to a deeper closed low over the
Desert Southwest eventually being enveloped into the overall
upper flow and swinging to the northeast, shunting the upper
level ridge further east. The overall severe threat through the
rest of the long term forecast remains low, though a few stronger
storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. PWATS of
1.5-2" will continue to promote efficient rainfall producers, so
a low flooding threat could emerge in locations that see multiple
periods of heavy rain.
Going into early next week, isolated to scattered rain chances
will likely continue. As for temperatures, while those milder 80s
are expected to remain into the weekend, the return of southerly
winds will pump temperatures back up into the 90s by early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
VFR and light south-to-southeasterly flow will prevail at all TAF
sites through this morning. Wind directions will shift to more
east- northeast later this morning in response to lingering
outflow boundaries from convection to our northeast, as well as
an incoming backdoor cold front. Scattered showers and storms are
likely to develop within the vicinity of the airports this
afternoon and evening as the boundaries continue to move to the
west/southwest. D10 will have their window of convection between
20-00Z, and ACT closer to 00-02Z. Lightning, gusty, erratic winds,
and brief heavy rain will be the main hazards with any storm.
Coverage will wane with the loss of daytime heating, with no
additional convection expected overnight into Wednesday. Winds
will gradually shift more easterly, ranging from ENE to ESE with
speeds around 7 kt or less towards the end of the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 74 89 72 / 30 30 10 20
Waco 92 72 87 70 / 20 30 30 30
Paris 92 69 85 68 / 30 10 0 10
Denton 93 72 87 69 / 30 30 10 20
McKinney 93 71 86 70 / 30 20 0 10
Dallas 96 74 90 72 / 30 30 10 20
Terrell 95 71 88 69 / 30 30 0 20
Corsicana 95 73 90 71 / 30 30 10 20
Temple 92 73 88 70 / 20 30 30 40
Mineral Wells 92 70 86 67 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
