Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
185
FXUS64 KFWD 190631
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
131 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on
Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these
storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail.
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue
Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible
but the severe weather threat appears low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Satellite imagery shows a rapid expansion of low clouds over the
last 2 hours across Central and North Texas indicative of strong
low level warm moist advection. A 40-50 kt low level jet is
indicated on both the FWS and GRK VAD wind profiles which will
continue to transport Gulf moisture northward into the region
overnight while resulting in intermittent strong wind gusts.
Farther to our north, a cold front is sagging south through
Oklahoma with a line of showers and thunderstorms draped across
the northwest part of the state. This front will continue to move
south toward the Red River by sunrise and will serve as a focus
for showers and thunderstorms across North Texas later in the day.
Continued warm advection ahead of the front should result in a few
scattered showers beneath a modest capping inversion through the
early morning hours, but convection should become more numerous
by late morning and early afternoon as the front approaches the
I-20 corridor. The high resolution guidance has a pretty good
handle on the frontal boundary, but there are some differences in
convective evolution through midday. As the low level jet begins
to veer and pull off to the northeast, some of the guidance takes
the bulk of the stronger storms through the Arklatex, with a
weaker line extending westward along the I-20 corridor. This seems
plausible given that we`ll have some capping and time of day would
result in a minimum in surface based instability across the
Metroplex. Additional strong storms would then be likely to
develop a little later in the day farther to the south and west
along the frontal boundary when stronger heating results in more
instability. The rest of the guidance just brings a line of
showers and storms all the way through North Texas with no general
weakening trend through midday and further intensification south
of I-20 into the afternoon.
While it`s difficult to pin down the exact scenario that will play
out, given the current radar trends to the north, strength of the
low level jet and availability of 3000+J/kg of MUCAPE, we`ll lean
toward this line of storms maintaining some intensity through the
early morning hours as it crosses the Red River and approaches
I-20 through midday. Further intensification of this line is
expected by afternoon as very strong instability will be present
along with additional support from a weak embedded shortwave
spreading out of Mexico. There will be a threat for severe wind
gusts and large hail with any of the storms today. The tornado
threat is very low compared to our last few severe weather events.
High temperatures will likely be held in check with extensive
cloud cover and scattered convection. We`ll keep highs in the
low/mid 80s Tuesday afternoon.
The front and the line of storms should push into Central TX by
late in the day with the frontal boundary becoming stalled out
Tuesday night. There will be an increasing potential for heavy
rainfall, mainly in Central Texas with any lingering activity
Tuesday night.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
With the remnant frontal boundary still draped across Central
Texas on Wednesday, we`ll see scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue, although the best coverage will be to our south and east
through the afternoon. Most areas in North Texas will remain dry
with PoPs only around 20%. By Wednesday night into Thursday, an
upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas with height falls
overspreading the Southern Plains. A moisture rich atmosphere
will be in place across North Texas with PWs in the 1.7-1.9"
range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across West Texas Wednesday night and across all of North
and Central TX on Thursday. This will likely be the day we see the
heaviest rainfall and potential for flash flooding. At this time,
the current forecast has most areas picking up 1 to 3 inches of
rain, but some of our southern and southeastern counties may
receive as much as 5 inches of rain through the end of the week.
With the upper pattern continuing to feature slow moving upper
disturbances within an area of broad forcing for ascent and PW
values just shy of 2 inches, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into
the weekend. The overall severe weather threat appears to be
pretty low during this time, but the threat for efficient rainfall
producing storms and associated flooding will increase by Thursday
into the weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
MVFR cigs are rapidly expanding across the region early this
morning and expect them to overspread all TAF sites here within
another hour or so. These low cigs will continue into Tuesday
morning ahead of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected along and ahead of the front and should move through the
D10 airspace between 16-20Z. We`ll show VCSH by 13Z as some
scattered showers may develop beneath a capping inversion during
the early morning hours. TS potential will increase by late
morning and we`ll have a TEMPO for TSRA from 17-20Z. Winds behind
this initial line of storms will likely be lighter and more
variable with a very general easterly direction prevailing. Flow
will gradually become more northeast through the late evening
hours. MVFR cigs will prevail again Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 64 80 67 / 90 20 20 50
Waco 84 66 81 68 / 90 90 20 50
Paris 81 63 77 66 / 90 20 20 40
Denton 80 62 78 65 / 90 20 20 50
McKinney 81 63 81 66 / 90 20 20 50
Dallas 82 65 80 68 / 90 20 20 50
Terrell 82 64 81 66 / 90 40 20 50
Corsicana 86 65 80 70 / 100 80 30 50
Temple 86 66 80 69 / 70 100 20 60
Mineral Wells 83 61 78 64 / 90 20 20 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
