Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
344
FXUS64 KFWD 301757
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1157 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 12 AM to 11 AM
Saturday due to wind chills ranging from 0 to 15 degrees.
- Much colder temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected
Saturday into Sunday.
- A warm up will occur Sunday through early next week, with rain
chances returning to the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
Late morning water vapor imagery shows a broad longwave trough
stretching from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast, with
shortwave energy embedded within the flow continuing to dig
southeastward across the Plains. At the surface, a sprawling high
pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is beginning to sag
southward and is expected to strengthen the pressure gradient
across the Southern Plains by this evening. Ahead of this,
afternoon temperatures will remain seasonably cool, generally in
the 40s to lower 50s with light northerly winds around 10 mph or
less.
Tonight, a reinforcing push of colder air will move in behind a
secondary cold front resulting in another night of widespread
freezing temperatures. This boundary is expected to reach North
Texas shortly after sunset, with a more pronounced increase in
north winds (up to 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 25 mph)
developing after 9 PM. The resulting cold air advection will drive
temperatures well into the teens north of the I-20 corridor and
into the low to mid 20s across Central Texas by sunrise Saturday.
The combination of cold temperatures and brisk winds will yield
wind chills ranging from near 0 up to around 10 degrees across
North Texas and 9 to 15 degrees farther south. A Cold Weather
Advisory remains in effect for the entire region from midnight
through Saturday morning amid these dangerously cold conditions.
Only a modest moderation of temperatures is expected during the
daytime hours on Saturday as surface high pressure slides
southeast into Oklahoma and weak height rises ensue aloft. Despite
increasing insolation, highs will once again remain below
seasonal norms (ranging from the low 30s to near 40 degrees) with
continued north/northeast flow. While weak perturbations in the NW
flow could induce areas of mid/high cloudiness at times, any
precipitation potential remains well displaced to the north during
this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
A fairly progressive and amplified pattern will persist into
early next week with broad troughing remaining entrenched over the
eastern half of the U.S. and a more zonal to northwesterly flow
regime extending across the Southern Plains. In the wake of
Saturday`s reinforcing cold push, quiet and dry weather will
continue through early next week. Surface high pressure will
slowly shift eastward, allowing low-level flow to gradually veer
to the south by Sunday. This will result in a modest warming trend
beginning Sunday, with highs returning to the 60s for most areas
by Monday afternoon.
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement on a shortwave
digging through the Southwest before emerging over the Southern
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. In response, surface cyclogenesis
is expected across the Southern plains, allowing for a better
return of low-level moisture and increasing rain chances across
North and Central Texas beginning early Tuesday. The degree of
moisture return still appears modest given the recent cold/dry
pattern, but enough recovery looks likely to support at least
scattered showers, primarily across Central and East Texas Tuesday
and Tuesday night. While instability will be meager, some
embedded convection can`t be ruled out near and southeast of the
I-35 corridor. Severe storms are not expected at this time.
A cold front is expected to accompany or follow this system,
ushering in another round of cold and dry air for the latter half
of the week. Current guidance favors a return to subfreezing
temperatures by Wednesday night into Thursday morning across much
of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
period with only passing high clouds this afternoon and evening.
Winds remain light from the north around 8-10 kt, but will
increase notably after 06Z as a reinforcing surge of cold air
arrives. Expected sustained north-northeast winds of 15-18 kts
with gusts up to 25 kt at the D10 terminals late tonight into
early Saturday morning. The frontal passage will reach KACT closer
to 10Z with a similar upticks in wind speeds thereafter.
Winds will gradually ease after sunrise Saturday with continued
VFR and SCT-FEW high-based stratocu around 5-8 kft.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 19 34 23 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 49 25 37 22 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 43 15 32 20 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 46 14 32 19 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 44 16 32 20 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 47 20 35 24 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 46 18 34 20 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 48 23 37 23 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 51 24 40 20 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 50 18 36 20 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST
Saturday for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-
174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
