Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
609
FXUS64 KFWD 180822
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
222 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures are expected once again
today.
- Thunderstorm chances return tomorrow and continue through early
Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during
this period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Another day with record-breaking temperatures is expected today
across North and Central Texas. The combination of southwesterly
wind and a weak southward progressing front will make for
efficient compressional warming. This will drive temperatures into
the upper 80s, with even a few 90s across North Texas. The record
high at DFW today stands at 83 degrees while Waco`s record high
stands at 84 degrees. Given today`s temperatures will be warmer in
North Texas, the probability of breaking a record at DFW Airport
is almost certain. For Waco, slightly more cloud cover and an
increased distance from the weak front along the Red River will
may keep temperatures at or just shy of record territory. If the
front pushes a little farther south than currently expected, the
potential for breaking Waco`s high will increase.
Regardless of whether records are broken or not, today can
certainly be considered a "hot" day by mid-November standards.
Precipitation is not expected today, although a weather system
will be drawing closer to our region, bringing wholesale changes
to our sensible weather starting tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Our long advertised midweek weather system is now churning atop
San Francisco at this time. By tomorrow morning, the center of the
system will dig southward and be atop San Diego. As the area of
low pressure digs south, surface high pressure will strengthen
across the northern Gulf and into the lower Mississippi River
Valley. These opposing systems will induce a northward migration
of low-level moisture Wednesday morning. With strong warm air
advection in place, low and mid-level cloud cover will be on the
rise with drizzle or even a few sprinkles possible during the
morning hours. Rain chances will gradually increase from west to
east through the late morning and into the afternoon hours as a
leading shortwave makes its way out of the Sonora Desert and into
West Texas. Precipitation through much of day will be in the form
of light rain showers. By late in the afternoon, rapid height
falls will move in from the west as the shortwave continues its
eastward shift. With a capping inversion in place much of the day,
the approaching system may help erode/lift the inversion. This
would allow for a few robust storms to develop west of I-35, some
of which could be strong to severe. If a severe storm is able to
develop, the main concern would be large hail. The low-level wind
field will be strengthening after sunset, however, surface based
convection will be harder to come by given near-surface diurnal
cooling. If the wind fields strengthens earlier than currently
expected, there may be a slight increase in the potential for a
brief spin-up west of I-35 with any supercell that develops. We`ll
continue to monitor these fine details over the next day.
As the main area of low pressure continues to move closer to
North and Central Texas, forcing for ascent will only increase
and lead to additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
into Friday. Although the bulk of the ascent is now anticipated
to be across Oklahoma and Kansas, ample amounts of moisture will
lead to efficient rainfall producing thunderstorms. The latest
guidance suggest much much of the region will likely experience
around 1-2" of rain. Some higher totals are possible, however,
only about 10% of the the region will experience totals of 3-4".
In addition to the bursts of heavy rainfall, a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out as storm clusters move from west to east.
Instability remains marginal, however, deep layer shear will be
strong which could support a few stronger storms capable of gusty
winds.
Rain chances will linger through Thursday night as the parent
shortwave slowly moves moves northeast, away from North and
Central Texas. A cold front will move through Friday morning,
shunting moisture south and east of our region. This will lead to
mostly dry conditions on Friday and much of Saturday. As we head
into Sunday, another robust trough will take a similar path
compared to our midweek system, leading to a regeneration of
precipitation across the Southern Plains. The progression of the
late week system will impact the timing of Sunday`s rain chances
and how long the rain will stick around for. For now, rain chances
will be advertised through early Tuesday (11/25) as model
consensus suggest a slow eastward progression of the system. As we
head into some of the busiest travel days of the year, make sure
to check back the to get the most up-to-date weather information.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
MVFR has invaded much of Central Texas with a continued northward
advancement into part of North Texas. This will continue to be the
trend through the coming hours with all of the TAF sites
experiencing MVFR through the morning hours. A period of IFR will
be possible between 11-15z as continued moistening occurs. After
sunrise, the low clouds will gradually disperse, leaving behind
VFR across all TAF sites.
There is a bit of uncertainty in the wind direction heading into
the evening as a weak front attempts to enter our region after 02z
Wed. Most likely, the front will stop its southward progress prior
to reaching any of the TAF sites. However, there is a low chance
winds shift out of the north near the tail end of this forecast
cycle. This will continue to be assessed through the next few TAF
iterations.
Aside from the ceilings and potential wind shift, no precipitation
is expected through the next 30 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 65 83 66 / 0 0 20 70
Waco 83 65 82 68 / 10 10 20 50
Paris 84 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 60
Denton 87 60 82 63 / 0 0 20 70
McKinney 86 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 70
Dallas 87 67 84 67 / 0 0 20 70
Terrell 85 64 83 66 / 10 0 20 60
Corsicana 85 67 84 68 / 10 0 20 50
Temple 84 64 83 66 / 10 10 30 40
Mineral Wells 90 61 85 63 / 0 10 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
