Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
285
FXUS64 KFWD 111816
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
116 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms will be this afternoon across parts
of Central and North Texas.
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most
areas rain-free this weekend and beyond.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across North and Central
Texas this morning, currently near/just north of the I-20
corridor. As we progress through the rest of the afternoon,
expect this boundary to gradually lift north and become more
diffused.
Prior to it lifting northward, we`ll continue to see isolated
showers and potentially a storm or two along the boundary given
weak convergence at the surface. Overall, expect precipitation to
remain isolated with most locations staying dry today. The
increased cloud cover will help keep temperatures slightly lower
today compared to yesterday with mid to upper 90s across the
region. As we approach peak heating, a few additional showers and
storms may form along any remnant outflow boundaries, however,
confidence in additional showers and storms remains low. Coverage
this afternoon will likely remain below 20% and remain mostly
south of I-20.
Mid-level ridging begins to increase its influence across the
region tomorrow, leading to precipitation-free conditions as well
as a slight increase in temperatures. Highs tomorrow will range
from 99-103 degrees, with the hottest weather conditions expected
west of I-35 and north of I-20. Heat index values will largely
remain below Heat Advisory criteria (below 105F), however, a few
isolated spots may temporarily reach 105-106 for a few hours
Saturday afternoon. Given the 105-106 degree heat index value
readings are not expected to be widespread, a Heat Advisory will
not be issued for tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
High pressure will continue to build through the weekend and into
next week. This will ensure precipitation-free dry days through
the first half of the week. Highs will continue to be well above
normal in the upper 90s to around 103 each day. Low-level
southerly flow will allow for afternoon humidity to increase heat
index values a few degrees above the actual temperature.
Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a pattern change arriving
next weekend as ridging gets shunted southward and mid-level
troughs begin taking a slightly southern track compared to much of
the summer. Although this is still beyond the official 7 day
forecast, the passing of a cold front may lead to temperatures
much closer to seasonal normals as well as as the return of low
rain chances to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
VFR conditions and southerly winds are ongoing across all of North
and Central Texas. The remnants of a cluster of showers is now
moving atop D10, with a sprinkle or two possible within the
vicinity of any of the DFW TAF sites. A brief period of variable
wind direction is possible as the sprinkles move overhead.
As this area of elevated showers continues to move east, the
potential to see additional showers and storms increases closer to
21z. By 21z, the expectation is for any remnant elevated showers
to be southeast the terminals, however, still within the vicinity
to generate potential impacts to arrival/departure routes.
Once this activity shifts away from D10, expect precipitation-free
conditions after 00z with southerly winds and VFR skies.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 101 79 100 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 76 100 76 99 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 73 99 74 98 / 10 10 0 0
Denton 76 101 76 100 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 75 100 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 79 101 80 101 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 75 100 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 100 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 102 74 101 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
