Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
924
FXUS64 KFWD 302338
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central
Texas through Friday. Heat index values between 105-110 can be
expected again tomorrow.
- There is a low chance for showers/storms late Friday evening
into Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and
Central Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
The upper-level ridge will remain planted atop the Southern
Plains today. Continued subsident air, mostly sunny skies, and
southerly winds will allow temperatures to peak in the upper 90s
to around 102. We continue to mix out a bit more in the afternoons
compared to the NBM guidance, so have lowered dewpoints slightly
this afternoon. Nonetheless, modest humidity will push heat index
values into the upper 90s to around 109. The Heat Advisory
currently in effect for portions of North and Central Texas this
afternoon remains unchanged.
An upper-level shortwave is expected to move towards the Great
Lakes tomorrow, shunting the ridge back to the west over the day
tomorrow. This pattern shift will allow a cold front to slide
south over the day, approaching the Red River tomorrow evening.
Out ahead of the incoming front, surface winds are expected to
shift a bit more out of the southwest, which will promote
increased afternoon temperatures. Expect highs on Friday to peak
in the upper 90s to around 104, with the hottest temperatures
generally across North Texas. Heat indices will again peak in the
upper 90s to around 109, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for
much of North Texas and eastern Central Texas for heat indices
above 105.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
The front will continue to advance south Friday evening into
Saturday, shifting winds out of the north-northeast. Abundant
moisture looks to pool just along/ahead of the frontal boundary
late Friday, allowing for some isolated shower and storm
development near the Red River going into early Saturday morning.
Additional development looks to occur after the front pushes south
of the I-20 corridor during the day Saturday, with isolated-
scattered coverage likely. With any storm during the afternoon
hours, there may be a threat for gusty downburst winds and brief,
heavy rain. Caution should be taken if on or around area lakes as
lightning and gusty winds in/around storms will be hazardous to
those outdoors. The front will push south of the region late
Saturday, effectively cutting off any additional rain chances.
Expect slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend in the wake
of the cold front, with afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday
peaking in the low to upper 90s. Looking further into next week,
expect the upper-level ridge to gradually shift back over top the
Southern Plains throughout next week along with a return of
southerly winds, promoting a warming trend back to highs in the
upper 90s to around 101-102 early next week. Heat indices will
likely return into the triple digits for much of the region
Tuesday onward, and additional Heat Advisories may be needed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with diurnal cumulus near 7
kft and some passing cirrus. Winds will remain out of the
south/southwest around 10 kts with daytime gusts near 20 kts again
tomorrow. The arrival of a weak frontal boundary will shift winds
to north/northwesterly just beyond the current valid TAF period
late Friday night.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 103 81 97 / 0 0 10 10
Waco 77 100 78 98 / 0 0 20 20
Paris 78 100 78 92 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 79 103 78 98 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 79 102 79 96 / 0 0 10 0
Dallas 82 104 82 99 / 0 0 10 10
Terrell 77 100 78 97 / 0 0 20 10
Corsicana 78 101 79 99 / 0 0 30 10
Temple 75 99 76 98 / 0 0 10 20
Mineral Wells 75 104 76 98 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-146>148-162.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ144-145-157>161-
174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
