Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
585
FXUS64 KFWD 061642
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few days of near or below normal temperatures can be expected
through the middle of the week.
- Thunderstorm chances return by the end of the week and
continue into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026
North and Central Texas remains under the influence of surface
high pressure as a weak mid-level disturbance departs to the east.
This setup will maintain tranquil and seasonable conditions
across the region today.
At the surface, the ridge axis will migrate slowly toward the
Midwest, causing current light northerly winds to veer to the
northeast and eventually the east by this afternoon. A dry airmass
remains entrenched, supporting efficient diurnally driven
temperature swings. Tomorrow morning`s lows in the 40s will give
way to afternoon highs in the lower 70s. Areas in and around the
DFW Metroplex can expect a slightly warmer morning start in the
lower 50s due to the local urban heat island effect.
A moisture-starved shortwave will traverse the region tomorrow.
While mid and high-level cloud cover will increase, the lack of
boundary layer moisture will preclude measurable precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026
The primary forecast challenge in the extended period will be the
transition from a tranquil zonal pattern to a more active and
potentially severe spring weather setup by the weekend.
As the surface ridge moves east on Wednesday, robust southerly
return flow will commence, initiating a steady increase in
moisture across the area. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s by Thursday under continued zonal flow aloft.
The main focus will be this weekend as our attention shifts to a
deep closed low that will move onshore the California coast on
Friday. Ahead of this feature, southwesterly flow aloft will
strengthen, increasing deep-layer shear. While Friday remains
mostly dry with only isolated showers and storms possible, precipitable
water values are progged to approach daily maximums as we head
into Saturday.
A sharpening dryline to our west will become the focal point for
convective initiation late Saturday. While the strongest activity
may initially remain west of our CWA, some storms may skirt our
western counties Saturday evening/night. A more potent shortwave
is expected to eject overhead on Sunday. With the dryline likely
stalling west of I-35 and ample instability in place, this period
will be the primary window for organized strong to severe storms.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at all North and Central Texas TAF
sites during this period. The primary aviation concern will be the
gradual veering of winds over the next 24 hours. Light northerly
winds will shift to the northeast this afternoon, then southeast
by this evening. Similar trends are expected in Waco. No ceiling
or visibility restrictions are anticipated, however, there should
be a deck of clouds that develops overnight at around FL200 and
remain through tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 74 56 78 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 47 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 10
Paris 45 72 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 45 73 52 76 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 47 73 53 76 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 51 74 57 77 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 47 74 53 78 / 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 49 76 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 47 75 52 78 / 0 0 10 10
Mineral Wells 45 73 51 77 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
