Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
988
FXUS64 KFWD 160625
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1225 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will return to the region for the
rest of the workweek with low rain chances (10-20%) on
Wednesday and Thursday in parts of Central and East Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Southerly low-level flow has resumed, and attendant warm advection
will result in above normal temperatures through the short term
forecast period. The strengthened low-level wind fields are
occurring in response to a mid-level disturbance which will be
encroaching on North Texas later today, and the overcast cirrus
plume overhead is a harbinger of its arrival. This trough does not
possess a well-defined corresponding surface boundary, so its
mid-level ascent will be the only noteworthy source of lift in
its vicinity. Some mid-level showers/sprinkles should be the
extent of precipitation chances with its passage later today, and
we`ll retain a mention of sprinkles in the worded forecast across
the northeast zones with chances for measurable rainfall being
slim to none.
Following the eastward departure of this trough axis to the east
overnight, another stronger disturbance will begin approaching the
area from the northwest heading into Wednesday morning.
Persistent southerly flow and moisture return should finally
become sufficient for slightly higher precipitation chances, as
low-level warm advection supports isolated/scattered rain shower
activity mainly across Central and East Texas. Despite the mostly
cloudy skies, temperatures will still be able to climb into the
mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
As the midweek Central CONUS trough continues to make eastward
progress, its strong cold front will be pulled through the area
during the daytime on Thursday. Additional isolated rain shower
activity is possible across East Texas preceding it arrival, but
this will be a dry frontal passage for a majority of North and
Central Texas. The post-frontal cP airmass source region will have
been experiencing near or above normal temperatures during the
preceding several days, and so this front will not feature a
significant cooldown for us locally for the end of the workweek.
In fact, it will barely be able to knock temperatures down to near
normal, with Friday`s forecast highs still in the 60s. Much drier
air will be present following the front though, with dewpoints
falling into the teens and 20s. A quick return to southerly flow
by Saturday should send temperature soaring into the 70s and even
lower 80s, at least 15-20 degrees above normal. Warm and mostly
rain-free weather look to continue into at least the early
portion of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
VFR will prevail through most of the period before MVFR stratus
returns overnight into Wednesday morning. Overcast cirrus will
continue to overspread the region today, while southeasterly winds
increase to 10-15 kts with a few higher daytime gusts. A few low
clouds at VFR heights of 3-5 kft will be present through the
daytime, but this deck will thicken and lower to 2-3 kft by the
end of the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 52 41 60 47 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 51 40 60 53 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 49 33 57 45 / 0 0 10 10
Denton 52 39 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 50 37 59 46 / 0 0 10 0
Dallas 53 42 61 49 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 51 36 59 49 / 0 0 10 0
Corsicana 52 40 61 53 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 53 39 61 52 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 54 42 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
