Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
433
FXUS64 KFWD 011847
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
147 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through the holiday weekend
with highs mainly in the mid and upper 90s and peak heat index
values of 100 to 105 degrees.
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through
Saturday, with better rain and storm chances Sunday through
Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
The longwave upper-level ridge that has been located to our east
this week has remained quasi-stationary, resulting in another day
of relatively quiet and dry weather. The associated elongated 1018
mb surface high centered over the Southern Appalachians has
resulted in southerly flow off the Gulf which has maintained our
typical hot and humid conditions across North Central Texas. The
12Z Fort Worth sounding earlier this morning showed boundary
layer dewpoints in the low 70s, with much drier air above the
shallow moist layer. As we are expected to heat up into the upper
90s today, some of this drier air aloft is expected to mix down to
the surface which will likely decrease our dewpoints down into
the mid to upper 60s by late afternoon and early evening, which is
similar to what we have seen these past few days. While some hi-
res guidance has hinted at a few remnant sea breeze-induced storms
creeping up into our extreme southern and eastern counties,
similar to what we saw yesterday across Leon and Robertson
Counties, confidence isn`t high enough to include this in the
grids at this time. Otherwise, expect scattered fair weather
cumulus later in the afternoon and early evening, with peak heat
indices in the low 100s. Tonight will essentially be a repeat of
the last few nights, with increasing low-level moisture after
sunset and a gradual decrease in our wind speeds, down to 5-10
knots. Overnight lows will again be in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees for the Metroplex, with low to mid 70s elsewhere.
On Thursday, expect similar conditions with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 100-105
degrees. One change is that eastern portions of the DFW Metroplex
and areas east of I-35 have a slightly higher chance (15-25%) of a
late day shower or storm, which high-resolution ensemble guidance
is showing as well. Even if storms form well to the east of the
Metroplex, any outflow boundaries that propagate towards the north
or west from any convection may produce gusty winds of 25-35 mph,
even if storms aren`t directly located over DFW. Due to the lack
of deep-layer wind shear (which is typical for this time of year),
expect any storms to be short-lived.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
Heading into Friday, the downstream longwave ridge begins to
dampen as we remain on the western periphery of an associated
surface high, keeping winds out of the SSE. Maximum temperatures
again look to be near to slightly above climatology in the mid to
upper 90s, with heat indices around 100 degrees and therefore
keeping us below heat advisory criteria. Much like Thursday, an
isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out given
weakening flow aloft and dewpoints in the upper 60s, but no
organized convection is anticipated due to the lack of large-scale
forcing for ascent.
For our celebratory day on Saturday, a weak shortwave trough will
propagate across the Southern Great Plains, which will provide a
greater source for lift on the synoptic-scale relative to the
previous days. This will set the stage for a few isolated
thunderstorms, which will mainly be confined to areas north of
I-20 and east of I-35. Similar to the previous couple of days, any
residual outflow boundaries may result in erratic changes in wind
speed and direction which can still pose a hazard for any
festivities even if thunderstorms aren`t directly located over the
area. Further, forecast soundings are showing "dry" subcloud
layers with 20-25 degree spreads at the surface, so can expect
efficient cold pool formation especially with any collapsing
thunderstorms. Highs on the 4th of July are anticipated to
approach 100 degrees with heat indices just below advisory
criteria between 100-105 degrees.
Moving onto Sunday and Monday, precipitation chances increase for
North Central Texas as flow aloft weakens underneath the ridge
and moisture lingers, with PWAT in the 75-80th percentile relative
to climatology. While nothing widespread is anticipated, current
ECMWF ensembles have 50th percentile QPF for Sunday around 0.2"
for most of the DFW Metroplex, with slightly lower totals on
Monday and mainly focused south of I-20. High temperatures look to
remain around or slightly above average in the mid to upper-90s.
We look to dry out on Tuesday as the mid-level ridge builds over
the 4 Corners region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with
a widespread cumulus field shown on visible satellite imagery.
SSE winds with peak gusts of 20-25 knots are expected to continue
until around 02Z before winds relax and gradually back to more SE
around 10 knots. From 09-13Z, have added a TEMPO group for KACT
given a similar pattern and observations from the last few days in
addition to forecast soundings indicating some low-level
moistening below 925 mb. This moisture should begin to mix out by
14Z and therefore increasing cig heights.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 97 79 98 / 0 0 10 10
Waco 76 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 75 92 75 92 / 0 30 10 30
Denton 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 10 10
McKinney 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 10 10
Dallas 79 98 79 99 / 0 0 10 10
Terrell 77 95 76 96 / 0 20 10 10
Corsicana 77 96 77 98 / 0 10 10 10
Temple 75 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brauer
LONG TERM....Brauer
AVIATION...Brauer
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
