Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
993
FXUS64 KFWD 101039
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry conditions will continue today with heat index
values up to 105 degrees.
- Rain and storm chances return to the region late Saturday
through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
Another seasonably hot and breezy day is in store today with highs
of 95-100 and heat index values up to 105. Expect southerly winds
of 10-20 mph with some daytime gusts exceeding 25 mph before
speeds decline in the evening. A modest low-level southerly fetch
may allow for isolated seabreeze convection to encroach on our
southeastern zones this afternoon, although these chances are too
low to include a mention of thunderstorms in the public forecast
at this time. While the upper ridge is presently quite diffuse, it
will amplify and strengthen to our west/northwest heading into
the weekend. This pattern shift will open the door for a trough
axis to sag southward into the Central/Southern Plains on the
ridge`s southeast periphery, resulting in increasingly unsettled
weather later in the weekend. This weakness aloft should allow
for a greater potential for convective activity mainly across
Central Texas on Saturday afternoon, perhaps also aided by
outflows from inland-advancing seabreeze convection.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026
A period of unsettled weather is expected from late Saturday into
next week. This will be due to an amplified upper ridge to our
northwest, while mid-level troughing and an easterly wave slowly
traverse the Southern Plains over the course of a few days. The
result will be disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity each
day, which will not necessarily be diurnally driven due to the
added source of dynamic ascent present from the easterly wave/low.
Shear will be quite weak in the presence of this feature, while
seasonably moderate/high instability exists along with above
normal (90th+ percentile) PW values. This will likely result in
isolated flooding problems being the primary forecast highlight,
with secondary wind/hail threats accompanying any stronger
thunderstorms through the extended forecast period. A flooding
threat could also be accentuated due to slow storm motions, with
very weak flow through the column during this time period.
Convective mode should largely consist of a combination of
multicellular clusters along with a few more structured linear
segments. Peak thunderstorm chances will be Sunday through Tuesday
when the upper trough/low will have its maximum influence
locally, before convective chances wind down beyond midweek. The
presence of daytime precipitation/outflows along with extra cloud
cover will aid in keeping temperatures near or below normal for
these few days, with highs in the lower 90s or perhaps even only
upper 80s depending on the amount of convection that does end up
occurring. An east/southeast expansion of the upper ridge by
Thursday/Friday will send temperatures back to the upper 90s to
around 100 with a return to seasonably hot and dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with breezy south winds.
Expect some daytime gusts around 25 kts before wind speeds decline
this evening. All convective activity is expected to remain south
of the airports today.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 99 80 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 96 77 95 78 / 0 0 20 20
Paris 97 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 30
Denton 100 77 98 79 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 100 79 98 79 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 100 81 99 80 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 99 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 98 77 96 79 / 0 0 20 20
Temple 95 75 94 77 / 0 0 20 20
Mineral Wells 98 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
