Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
053
FXUS64 KFWD 152323
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- More robust rain chances (30-60%) return to the region daily
beginning Sunday and into the middle of next week. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible during this time frame.
- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
The weak disturbance responsible for last night`s convection
across Northwest Texas has shifted east, leaving North and Central
Texas precipitation-free so far this afternoon. High clouds will
continue to stream overhead through the rest of the day within the
subtropical jet, while another subtle shortwave over Arizona
approaches from the west. This feature should encourage isolated
dryline convection well to our west later this afternoon and
evening, but any activity moving toward North Texas would likely
be elevated and weakening as it outruns the better forcing and
encounters stronger inhibition with eastward extent. Most
locations will remain dry. Any storms that survive into the
forecast area should remain isolated and sub-severe, though steep
lapse rates above the warm layer may support some small hail
should a strong updraft persist.
Outside of the low storm chances, today`s winds may end up being
the most noticeable weather impact. A fairly tight surface
pressure gradient ahead of the approaching shortwave and lee
troughing to our northwest will support breezy south winds through
the afternoon. Sustained speeds will increase to around 15 to 20
mph with occasional gusts up to 35 mph. Though we will remain
below Wind Advisory criteria, lightweight objects may be blown
around this afternoon and high-profile vehicles may have some
difficulty on east-west roadways. Winds will briefly ease tonight
before the low-level jet develops. Persistent warm advection will
keep temperatures mild overnight with lows hovering in the upper
60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
A digging western CONUS trough and persistent lee Rockies cyclone
will maintain warm and breezy conditions across North and Central
Texas this weekend. Southwest flow aloft will already be in place
Saturday, but the more meaningful forcing should remain displaced
to our west and northwest. The dryline will also remain well west
of the forecast area while lingering inhibition keeps North and
Central Texas dry. Increasing storm chances will arrive late
Sunday as a smaller-scale shortwave embedded within the larger
western trough approaches the Southern Plains. Convective
activity should initially attempt to develop along the dryline,
which is expected to still be west of the I-35 corridor by late
afternoon or early evening. With that said, storm development is
far from guaranteed. The strongest ascent still appears displaced
north of much of the forecast area, and it is likely that there
will be several failed convective attempts over North Texas before
one or two storms finally break through. This should keep storm
coverage isolated, with the best chances generally near and north
of I-20. Any sustained storm would likely be discrete and could
become severe given good instability and modest flow aloft, with
large hail and damaging winds the main concerns.
A stronger shortwave will round the base of the trough and lift
northeast through the Plains on Monday. This wave should provide
stronger ascent and broader height falls, making dryline-induced
convection more likely Monday afternoon and evening. The more
southward trajectory of this disturbance should also bring storm
chances farther south into parts of western Central Texas compared
to Sunday. Moisture loading will also be more substantial by this
time, with dewpoints peaking in the low to mid 70s across much of
the warm sector supporting strong afternoon instability. Initial
storm mode may be semi-discrete or discrete near the dryline
before mergers and cold pool interactions begin increasing with
time. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards,
though a tornado threat cannot be ruled out where low-level winds
locally back near outflow boundaries or remnant mesoscale
features.
By Tuesday, attention turns to the main trough axis and the
associated cold front. Guidance has trended more aggressive with
the east and southeast push of the boundary compared to earlier
forecasts, with the front entering our northwest zones Tuesday
morning. This should provide the most coherent mesoscale forcing
of the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop
along and ahead of the front, then spread southeast through North
and Central Texas Tuesday afternoon and overnight into early Wednesday.
With frontal forcing becoming more dominant, storm mode should
trend more linear or clustered with time, supporting a continued
threat for damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
The heavy rainfall signal is still worth watching, but the faster
frontal progression lowers the QPF ceiling somewhat compared to a
slower or stalled-boundary scenario. Even so, rainfall efficiency
will be high where storms interact with the front or any pre-
existing outflow boundaries, and brief training could still
produce localized flooding. This is especially true Tuesday into
early Wednesday when the front intercepts the moist and unstable
airmass. Forecast confidence decreases by late Wednesday into
Thursday. The large-scale pattern remains unsettled, but the
details become increasingly dependent on the timing and amplitude
of additional upstream shortwaves, how far the front clears the
area, and where residual boundaries and deeper moisture end up.
Additional showers and storms may return late next week, but the
confidence in timing, coverage, and intensity is lower than the
Sunday through Tuesday period. The main message remains the same:
occasional interruptions to outdoor activities are possible from
Sunday through midweek, with the highest storm coverage currently
favored Monday into Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Widespread mid and high cloud cover will prevail for another
several hours along with some high based showers. Most of this
activity is not reaching the ground but stronger radar
reflectivity suggests some light rain will be possible for the
next few hours before the upper level support pulls off to the
east. VFR will prevail through the late evening but MVFR cigs are
expected to develop and spread north through the overnight hours.
We`ll maintain VFR at this time given the low level flow should
keep the bulk of the lower cigs just to the east of the major
airports, but it`s not out of the question that we`ll need to AMD
for lower cigs during the early morning hours on Saturday.
Otherwise, breezy southerly flow will continue through the period.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 90 73 90 / 10 0 0 10
Waco 70 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 70 87 70 87 / 10 0 0 10
Denton 71 89 74 89 / 10 0 0 10
McKinney 71 90 72 89 / 10 0 0 10
Dallas 71 91 73 91 / 10 0 0 10
Terrell 71 89 72 90 / 10 0 0 10
Corsicana 71 90 74 91 / 10 0 0 10
Temple 69 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 68 90 71 89 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Dunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
