Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
316
FXUS64 KFWD 050700
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A long period of above-normal temperatures is expected today
through the middle of next week, with highs mainly in the 70s.
- Low rain chances of 20-30% return Monday night through Tuesday
but no significant rain amounts are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Sunday)
Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026
Beautiful but chilly night across North and Central Texas this
morning with clear skies and current temperatures in the 30s to
around 40. Temps across our western and northern counties are
already at or below forecast lows for this morning, so have had to
lower min temps several degrees accordingly. Much of North Texas
outside of the DFW metroplex as well as western Central Texas will
see a light freeze this morning and fall into the upper 20s to low
30s. Some isolated patchy fog is also possible as dewpoint
depressions are near zero in some areas, but the overall dry
atmosphere will keep any fog limited.
After the chilly start, a lengthy period of very warm, well-
above normal temperatures begins today and lasts through at least
the middle of next week. This early February warmth will be due
to a large amplified upper level ridge of high pressure building
from the western Gulf northward into western Canada. 00Z guidance
indicates this ridge will remain in place through the middle to
end of next week, giving us around 7 to 9 days of above normal
temperatures. Highs look to reach the mid 60s to low 70s today,
and 70s to near 80 on Friday. A weak cold front will knock temps
down slightly for Saturday with upper 60s to upper 70s, but highs
go right back up for Sunday into the mid 70s to low 80s. Despite
these temps being around 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year, they are still well below daily records which are
in the mid to upper 80s. No rain is anticipated through Sunday
either as moisture levels will remain quite low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026
By early to mid next week, a large H5 low situated beneath the
upper ridge over northern Mexico is expected to weaken while
shifting eastward across Texas. With southerly flow from the Gulf
increasing ahead of this system and dewpoints rising into the 50s
and 60s, widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms appear
possible at times from Monday night into Wednesday. However,
timing differences between the 00Z GFS/ECMWF are substantial so
will keep pops low for now. Even with these rain chances,
temperatures will remain quite warm in the 70s to near 80 all
three days. Towards the end of next week, guidance suggests a
stout upper trough could bring us cooler temperatures and more
substantial rain chances, but at this extended range this
potential remains up in the air - no pun intended.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026
VFR conditions with SKC are anticipated this TAF period. Light
northwest winds up to 5 knots this morning will become
westerly/southwesterly up to 15 knots this afternoon, then
decrease to around 5 knots tonight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 44 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 68 44 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 64 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 69 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 67 41 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 68 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 67 42 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 68 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 69 42 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 40 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
