Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

404
FXUS64 KFWD 011015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
515 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot weather will continue through the holiday weekend
  with highs mainly in the mid and upper 90s and peak heat index
  values of 100 to 105 degrees.

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through
  Saturday, with better rain and storm chances Sunday through
  Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The dominant meteorological feature across the CONUS through the
midweek period is a 595 decameter 500mb ridge, which is currently
centered over the Mid Atlantic region. The system is expansive
and stretches southwestward across the MS Valley and into Central
Texas, which continues to keep our above-normal temperatures in
place. Highs in the mid and upper 90s, humid, and rain-free
conditions will be the end result across the vast majority of the
forecast area.

A few exceptions may be the East Texas and eastern Central Texas
counties, where onshore flow around the southwest flank of the
ridge could enhance the seabreeze/gulf breeze enough to produce
isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Will hence
include 10% to 20% POPs for areas generally along and east of
I-35, and along and south of I-20, for both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons. Otherwise, a broader surface pressure gradient will
lower wind speeds compared to the past several days, with south
winds of generally 10-20 MPH expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The eastern ridge will flatten while expanding west across the
rest of Texas into the Desert Southwest late week, which will
simply maintain above normal temperatures into the holiday weekend.
Meanwhile, a shortwave trough traversing the Plains and easterly
wave moving inland from the northwest Gulf will weaken the ridge
enough to allow for diurnally driven convection this weekend into
early next week. It had initially appeared that storm chances
would wait until Sunday, but it now appears that at least isolated
convection is possible Saturday afternoon and evening as the
ridge initially becomes compromised aloft. Most areas will likely
remain rain-free for evening festivities, but will need to keep a
close eye on the radar, as thunderstorm outflow can still affect
fireworks and/or drones even in areas that stay dry.

The better rain and storm chances will occur Sunday through
Tuesday when the weakness aloft is most pronounced. Convection
will be disorganized and most likely sub-severe, and not everyone
will receive rain each day; but gusty winds, frequent lightning
and locally heavy rain may still accompany some of the stronger
storms. The good news is that the scattered showers and storms
along with the associated cloud cover should bring temporary
relief from the summer heat. The ridge aloft will reestablish
itself overhead mid to late next week, which should decrease rain
and storm chances, but mid range guidance indicates that there
will be enough lingering moisture and instability to produce at
least a slight chance of storms during the middle to latter part
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Patchy MVFR ceilings have reached KACT and attained a slightly
stronger northward push than previously expected. Low clouds will
still remain mostly south of the DFW Metroplex, but probabilities
have increased enough to include a TEMPO from 12-15Z for MVFR
cigs in the Metroplex TAFs. VFR can otherwise be expected along
with south to southeast winds of 10-20 kt.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  79  98  79 /   0   0  10  10
Waco                95  76  95  77 /  10  10  10  10
Paris               94  76  93  75 /  10  10  20  10
Denton              97  78  97  78 /   0   0  10  10
McKinney            96  78  95  78 /   0   0  10  10
Dallas              99  80  98  79 /   0   0  10  10
Terrell             97  77  95  76 /  10  10  20  10
Corsicana           98  77  97  77 /  10  10  20  10
Temple              96  75  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       96  75  96  75 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion