Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
519
FXUS64 KFWD 011914
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
114 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain showers and occasional lightning will continue mainly
near and east of I-35 this afternoon.
- Sub-freezing temperatures with wind chills in the 20s are
expected on tonight into Tuesday morning.
- Brief warming is expected mid-week before another cold front
brings cooler air and scattered rain chances to the region late
Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Isolated to scattered light showers and the occasional lightning
strike are expected to blossom across portions of eastern North
Texas and Central Texas this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave
disturbance treks across the Southern Plains. Greatest chances to
observe rain will be in our far East Texas and eastern Central
Texas counties, but there remains potential for light rain and
drizzle closer to the I-35 corridor. Persistent cloud cover and
east-northeast winds will keep this afternoon chilly, with high
temperatures only ranging from the mid 30s to mid-upper 40s.
As the aforementioned shortwave begins to exit to the northeast
this evening, rain chances will shift east and a slug of drier,
colder air is expected to spread across the region. In response,
temperatures overnight into Tuesday will be quite a bit chillier
than this morning, with lows expected to bottom out in the mid 20s
to around 32. Wind chills will be near to slightly below ambient
temperatures in the low 20s to around 30-31. It would be pertinent
to bundle up appropriately on your way out the door Tuesday
morning!
Over Tuesday, the surface high will slide through the region,
eventually forcing winds to return out of the southeast later in
the afternoon. This, along with mostly sunny skies, will allow for
slightly warmer afternoon high temperatures in the mid 40s to
mid- upper 50s. &&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
With southerly winds persisting into midweek, expect additional
warming on Wednesday as highs are able to reach back into the
upper 50s to around 70. Our next storm system is expected to
impact the region beginning mid-late this week. A shortwave trough
will spread across the Plains, urging higher-quality moisture
northward by Wednesday. Lift from the system`s cold front will
interact with the increased moisture and allow for rain chances
mainly across portions of Central Texas late Wednesday into
Thursday, while much of the rest of the region looks to remain dry
as the front passes.
A quickly approaching shortwave disturbance moving across the
Southern Plains will promote isentropic upglide overtop the cooler
post-frontal airmass, allowing for more showers to spread across
North and Central Texas Thursday into Friday. With much cooler
post-frontal temperatures expected late this week, particularly
on Thursday night into Friday where a most of North and western
Central Texas may dip below freezing, we will need to keep an eye
on the temperature profiles and the timing of freezing
temperatures and precipitation. If everything were to align, then
there may be a shot at some wintry precipitation during this time.
Since there still remains quite a bit uncertainty on the exact
potential for any freezing precipitation and more specific
locations, have kept all precipitation liquid with this forecast
update and will continue to monitor latest guidance as it comes in
for more confidence. All this being said, keep an eye on the
forecast this week as more details become available in the coming
days.
Behind the departing shortwave, expect another warm up as we go
into next weekend. Guidance is hinting at yet another cold front
heading into next week, but timing and exact details remain
uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
MVFR cigs will continue to very slowly lift over the rest of the
afternoon, before finally lifting and exiting the region around 00-
01Z this evening. Northerly winds have once again become
established across D10 after a period of more east-northeast
winds earlier this morning (ACT has remained northerly). Northerly
winds will prevail with speeds less than 10 kts through much of
the period as a surface high moves into and across the region
tomorrow. Once the surface high moves to our east, winds will
begin to return out of the south closer to 18Z tomorrow within
D10, and a few hours later at ACT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 30 52 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 30 52 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 26 47 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 24 51 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 26 50 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 31 51 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 27 50 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 32 52 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 30 55 37 67 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 26 57 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
