Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
829
FXUS64 KFWD 022322
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is possible mainly along and east of Interstate 35
overnight into Saturday morning.
- Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week.
- Low rain chances return to the region Wednesday and Thursday of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 445 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
Based on recent guidance, have introduced a mention of fog in the
forecast overnight into Saturday morning, some of which may become
dense. This would be most likely roughly along/east of I-35 as
pooled moisture behind a surface frontal boundary results in the
development of advection fog after midnight. This frontal passage
along with the presence of some cloud cover during the daytime
tomorrow will hold high temperatures as much as 10-20 degrees
cooler than today, following exceptionally warm temperatures in
Central Texas this afternoon. Waco has shattered its previous
record (80 in 2009) for a January 2nd high temperature by reaching
87 today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
The center of a surface low pressure system is located right along
the Red River north of the Metroplex. Gusty west winds have
overspread much of the region south of I-20 while areas to the
north have generally seen lighter winds. Sunny skies, west winds,
and lowering humidity will lead to a warm afternoon with highs in
the lower 80s across the southern half of the CWA. We`ll stay a
little cooler along and north of I-20 with highs in the lower 70s.
An upstream shortwave will move eastward this afternoon and our
surface low will eventually move east with it dragging a weak cold
front into the region this evening. Winds will gradually come
around to the north as cooler air spills southward. We`ll see
overnight lows fall into the lower 40s across the northwest with
mid/upper 40s elsewhere. Given the location of the surface low,
some wrap around moisture is expected to spread back into the
region late tonight into Saturday, mainly east of I-35. This may
result in some increased cloud cover across our eastern counties
through late morning Saturday. Cloud cover will gradually erode
into the afternoon with highs topping out in the 60s and lower
70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
High pressure will briefly build into the Southern Plains late
Saturday with the upper pattern remaining fairly progressive.
Despite the progressive nature of the upper levels, ridging will
generally prevail across the Southern Plains through the middle of
the week. This will continue to support well above normal
temperatures with readings climbing back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Tuesday. Very dry air will also work into the I-35
corridor by Tuesday afternoon with RH values dropping to 15-25%.
With temperatures near 80 degrees and a west-southwest wind, we`ll
likely see an uptick in grass fire activity on Tuesday afternoon.
Wind speeds will generally remain around 10 mph which should
inhibit a more significant fire weather day.
By Wednesday, a fast moving potent upper shortwave will move out
of the Desert Southwest with strong height falls spreading into
West Texas. This will allow a surface low to quickly deepen across
the Panhandle, and low level moisture to surge northward ahead of
the upper trough. Strong forcing for ascent will overspread North
Texas late Wednesday night into early Thursday and should be
sufficient for showers and perhaps an elevated storm or two to
develop. We`ll keep PoPs at 30% for now given some uncertainty in
the handling of the upper trough amongst the guidance, but these
are likely to go up in the coming days.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
Winds have veered increasingly northwesterly this afternoon with
the arrival of a slow-moving surface frontal boundary. A secondary
frontal passage will occur tonight, reinforcing north winds around
10 kts where they will remain into Saturday. Probabilities are
increasing for advection fog to develop following this overnight
frontal passage where pooled moisture will exist, and worsened
conditions will be introduced with this TAF issuance to address
this potential. Fog and low stratus should translate southward
fairly quickly and should only persist for a few hours at any
given site. VFR will prevail thereafter with north winds through
the rest of the daytime tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 50 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 48 62 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 42 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 45 64 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 49 67 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 47 66 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 49 69 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 50 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 43 68 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dunn
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
