Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
230
FXUS64 KFWD 171914
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect for North Texas Tuesday
afternoon with temperatures up to 108 degrees.
- Elsewhere, hot temperatures will continue this week with highs
between 99 to 105 each day.
- Little to no rainfall is expected the next 7 days, and low
humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity the
first half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Our main weather story through the rest of the week will remain
the ongoing heatwave. A strong mid-level ridge remains centered
over the Southern Plains and will keep North and Central Texas hot
and mostly rain-free through Tuesday. Afternoon highs today will
generally range from 102 to 105. Tomorrow`s highs will be a few
degrees warmer with the hottest readings across North Texas.
Despite the hot temperatures, dew points will once again mix out
into the 50s across much of the area this afternoon. This will
keep heat index values fairly close to the actual air temperature,
but ambient temperatures alone will be sufficient to support the
heat advisory currently across a large portion of the area.
The lower humidity will also contribute to an increasing grass
fire concern. Afternoon RH values will fall into the lower to mid
20s especially west of I-35. Winds will remain light enough to
prevent more significant fire activity, but dry fuels and
persistent heat will support new fire starts.
A weak frontal boundary has moved towards the Red River with
thunderstorms expected north of the region across Oklahoma later
today. For our region, strong subsidence and dry boundary-layer
air should keep convection from moving into North Texas. We`ll
maintain 10% precipitation chances across our northern counties,
but once again, expect most locations to remain dry.
Heading into tomorrow, the hot and dry weather will persist with
temperatures 1-2 degrees above today`s readings. For that reason,
an Extreme Heat Warning will will be in effect for all of North
Texas as some locations reach 108 degrees along the Red River. As
a reminder, extreme heat is dangerous, especially for those
without reliable shelter or a way to stay cool. Limit time
outdoors during the hottest time of the day and rest in the shade
when possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
The hot and dry weather will persist through the remainder of the
week as the upper ridge remains the dominant feature across the
Southern Plains. The ridge will shift slightly westward late week,
which may allow for weak northerly flow aloft to develop. We`ll
continue to monitor for a weak front that may approach North
Texas by Friday, but moisture and forcing do not look promising
for precipitation. For now, we`ll continue to advertise rain
chances below 10% until there is better confidence in
precipitation changes.
To complement the heat-related hazards, fire weather concerns will
also continue through the middle of the week as afternoon
humidity remains low and fuels continue to be dry. Wind speeds
will remain too light for a more substantial fire weather threat,
however, the prolonged stretch of hot and dry weather will
maintain an elevated grass fire threat.
The ridge will likely persist well into next week with continued
hot weather in place. Ensemble guidance keeps triple digit heat
trough at least the next 10 days before returning to the upper 90s
by the first week of September.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period across all of
North and Central Texas.
Winds across the D10 airspace are light with some locations
currently experiencing northwesterly winds. The northwesterly
winds are expected to persist through around 21z before southerly
winds once again become established. An isolated shower may
develop north of D10 this afternoon, however, overall probability
of precipitation will remain below 15%.
Overnight, expect continued southerly winds with VFR skies across
the region.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 106 82 104 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 78 103 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 77 104 80 103 / 10 10 0 0
Denton 79 106 81 104 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 79 105 81 103 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 82 106 83 105 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 78 105 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 76 103 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 107 77 105 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until noon CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>134.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ135-144>148-159>162-
175.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ141>143-
156>158-174.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
