Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

851
FXUS64 KFWD 061758
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1258 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s will continue
  through the rest of this week into next week.

- Low rain chances (10% or less) are expected across East Texas
  and eastern Central Texas each afternoon through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

It`s another typical summer day across North and Central Texas
with current temperatures in the 90s under mostly sunny skies.
Still anticipating highs to reach the usual upper 90s to low 100s
across the area. Low level moisture has increased somewhat across
our southeast half with dewpoints in the 70s, which will lead to
higher heat index values in the low 100s there this afternoon.
The increased moisture is also expected to allow for a few
isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm to pop up late this
afternoon, although coverage will remain quite sparse. Across our
northwest half, lower moisture/dewpoints will keep heat indices
below 105 once again today, despite highs reaching the low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The large upper ridge centered over AZ/NM that has been bringing
us the hot weather will shift slightly westward and erode some on
its eastern side from tomorrow into early next week. This pattern
shift should knock temperatures down a degree or so from what we
have seen so far this week, as well as allow for a bit more
convection to develop/propagate northwestward into our southeast
counties each afternoon from Friday through Monday due to the more
active seabreeze along the Texas coast. Even so, coverage looks
to remain isolated and will keep pops around 10 percent or less.
In addition, 12Z guidance shows a weak H5 shortwave moving
southward across the southern Plains on Friday which will help
spark scattered showers/storms across Oklahoma. This activity will
move southward towards the Red River and weaken by late Friday
afternoon/evening, but some of it may survive into our far
northern counties. Confidence is not high in this occurring,
however, and have kept pops around 10 percent. By mid to late next
week, global models indicate the upper ridge will expand back
along the Gulf Coast and restrengthen, which should shut off our
already low precip chances as well as heat temperatures back up a
few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with just some
isolated cumulus/cirrus clouds. Winds will remain southerly around
8-13 kts through tomorrow.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80 100  80  99 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  98  77  97 /   0  10   0  10
Paris               77  97  76  97 /   0   0  10  10
Denton              78 101  78 100 /   0   0  10   0
McKinney            77  99  77  97 /   0   0  10   0
Dallas              81 101  81 100 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           76  99  76  98 /   0  10   0  10
Temple              75  98  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Mineral Wells       75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion