Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
414
FXUS64 KFWD 011131
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another cold night is expected with lows in the teens and low
20s areawide by early Sunday morning.
- A warm up will occur Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with low
rain chances returning to areas east of the I-35 corridor on
Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Another cold night is in progress across North and Central TX with
most locations already in the low to mid 20s. Temperatures
shouldn`t drop too much farther as the center of a 1035 mb surface
high will continue to shift eastward overnight allowing a light
southerly wind to become established prior to sunrise. A weak
upstream shortwave is also moving through the Southern Plains
tonight and has resulted in some mid level cloud cover across the
northeast half of the CWA. Some light radar returns are noted and
this is likely some light snow flurries, but it`s unlikely any of
this is making it to the ground given the very dry sub cloud
layer. This activity will move east of the area overnight with
clearing skies by morning. Southerly winds will return on Sunday
with temperatures climbing back into the 50s which will be about
20 degrees warmer than Saturday`s highs.
The warmup will continue into Monday as a weak mid level ridge
slides through the Southern Plains. Highs on Monday should top out
in the mid to upper 60s. A strong upper trough will begin to dig
into the Central Plains on Monday with a surface low over the TX
Panhandle deepening. This will gradually pull some moisture
northward into North Texas, primarily east of I-35. This moisture
should result in increasing cloud cover through the day and will
occur ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
The cold front will enter our northwest counties early Tuesday
morning and we`ll likely see a few scattered warm advection
showers across our eastern counties through the morning hours.
Coverage will increase into the early afternoon as the front
moves eastward, but the best moisture will quickly get pushed
out of our area by evening. Coverage of showers will be highest
across our southeast counties with areas farther to the north and
west missing out on any rainfall potential with this system.
Wednesday will be cooler with highs in the 50s and we`ll continue
to monitor a low potential for temperatures to be considerably
cooler than currently forecast. As the strong shortwave digs into
the Southern Plains, very strong synoptic forcing for ascent will
overspread North Texas through the day Wednesday. Model guidance
has come in a little less aggressive with moisture, which means
despite the strong lift, we won`t likely see any extensive clouds
or precipitation. But, if there is a little more moisture, we
could quickly go from mostly sunny skies to overcast conditions
which would result in a significant deviation in temperatures from
the current forecast. We`ll likely have a little better handle on
this potential in the next 24-48 hours.
Otherwise, mid level ridging will quickly build in behind the
departing shortwave promoting a warming trend through the end of
the week. Highs will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday
and Saturday.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026
VFR conditions with south to southwest winds AOB 10 kts will
persist today through Monday morning. Wind speeds are expected to
increase to 10-15 kts after 18Z tomorrow. Outside of FEW-SCT mid-
level clouds, no other impacts are expected through the period.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 35 68 48 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 55 34 66 54 / 0 0 0 10
Paris 47 30 63 47 / 0 0 0 20
Denton 53 31 66 43 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 51 32 65 47 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 55 36 67 52 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 52 32 66 50 / 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 54 35 69 53 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 57 34 69 53 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 60 33 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
