Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
430
FXUS64 KFWD 120652
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday,
before a strong cold front brings colder temperatures on Sunday
with highs in the 40s and 50s.
- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region by the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Above normal temperatures will continue today, with a weak cold
front sagging into North Texas during the daytime. Aside from a
north wind shift around 10 mph, this boundary will have little
impact on sensible weather with minimal cold advection behind it.
Prior to the front`s arrival, increasing moisture content within
strengthening southerly low-level flow should send a swath of low
stratus and perhaps some fog into parts of Central/East Texas
this morning which will mix out with daytime mixing as surface
winds veer westerly. Some of this fog may even briefly become
dense roughly southeast of a Temple to Palestine line before
visibilities quickly improve by mid-morning. Highs will be in the
70s south of the frontal boundary and mostly in the mid/upper 60s
across North Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Low-level flow will already begin recovering to southerly on
Saturday which will allow temperatures to climb above normal once
again with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Since today`s front
will not scour moisture from Central Texas, renewed warm
advection should provide sufficient lift for some light
precipitation across our southern zones during the daytime on
Saturday with chances for measurable rainfall of 10-20%. The vast
majority of the area will remain dry and unseasonably warm. A much
stronger cold front is progged to move into the area late
Saturday night and Sunday morning associated with a stronger
Northern Plains trough and surface high pressure becoming anchored
over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Post-frontal gusty north
winds will keep temperatures much cooler on Sunday with highs
likely only reaching the 40s. Rain showers could accompany this
boundary through parts of Central Texas where lingering moisture
will still exist, but the frontal passage will be dry for most of
the CWA. A renewed warm advection regime will take shape through
the first half of next week, but it remains unclear how much
moisture recovery will be able to occur ahead of another midweek
system. For now, rain chances through the remainder of the
forecast are below mentionable levels, and a return to warm and
dry weather is the most likely solution at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing
cirrus. This morning`s fog and low stratus will remain well
southeast of Metroplex airports, but could briefly encroach on
Waco after sunrise. A weak cold front will result in a north wind
shift around midday for D10 TAF sites and closer to 22z for Waco,
but speeds will remain light at 10 kts or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 45 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 69 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 64 41 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 67 40 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 66 42 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 67 46 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 65 43 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 67 47 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 67 44 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 70 42 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
