Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
052
FXUS64 KFWD 311754
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of North and Central
Texas through 8 PM tonight due to heat indices between 105-110.
- There is a low chance for showers/storms late this evening
through Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and
Central Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
The upper-level ridge responsible for our hot and dry weather is
currently being pushed back west in response to a shortwave
disturbance swinging into the Great Lakes. This slight pattern
shift will put North and Central Texas underneath north-northwest
flow aloft, allowing a weak cold front to slide south through the
Plains. Ahead of the boundary, expect winds to shift more out of
the west-southwest, which will promote downslope flow and
compressional warming. This will result in pretty hot conditions
this afternoon, with high temperatures peaking between 99-105
degrees across North Texas (98-102 in Central Texas). These hot
temperatures, combined with modest humidity, will push heat
indices to 99-110 degrees. The current Heat Advisory for North and
eastern Central Texas remains in effect until 8 PM tonight, but
has been expanded slightly west towards the I-35 corridor. There
may be a couple of sites in North Texas where heat indices exceed
110 degrees, but these will be isolated in nature and will hence
forego issuing an Extreme Heat Warning for this afternoon. Outside
of the heat, there is potential for isolated showers and storms
to develop near the front this evening as it reaches the Red
River. The overall threat for severe weather is low, though any
more robust storm would be capable of gusty downburst winds and
brief heavy rain.
The front will continue to move south overnight through Saturday,
though precipitation will likely diminish as the front moves
south of US-380. Behind the front, expect slightly cooler and
drier conditions as north winds prevail. A period of renewed
development is expected in Central Texas over the morning and
afternoon tomorrow as the front interacts with abundant moisture
and instability. Once again, the threat for severe weather is not
high at this time, though any storm in the afternoon would be
capable of gusty downburst winds and heavy rain. This would impact
any outdoor plans, especially if on or around area lakes.
With the front not expected to reach Central Texas until the
afternoon, lingering humid conditions will allow heat indices in
some spots to perk up to between 103-110 for areas generally south
of US-284. However, we will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory
for now due to the potential for increased cloud cover and rain-
cooled air, which may help to keep heat indices a bit more
manageable tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
With continued northerly winds, expect slightly cooler
temperatures in the 90s once again on Sunday. However, this
respite to the heat will not last long as the upper-level ridge
will begin to build eastward over next week. Additionally,
southerly winds will return Monday onward, so a warming pattern
with little in the way of rain is expected across much of next
week. Afternoon highs will perk back up into the mid 90s to around
101-102 each day next week, with increasing humidity pushing heat
indices into the triple digits across much of North and Central
Texas. Unfortunately, we will likely have to deal with Heat
Advisories starting back up next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
South-to-southwesterly winds and occasional mid to high cloud
cover will prevail at all TAF sites the rest of today. A weak cold
front is expected to push south into the Red River tonight, with
wind directions shifting further out of the west-southwest after
08Z at D10. There may be some isolated development to the north-
northwest tonight, but any activity should remain outside of D10
airports. The front should push through D10 between 10-11Z, with
northerly winds prevailing the rest of the period. The front will
reach ACT closer to 17-18Z tomorrow. Additional spotty storm
development is expected across Central Texas tomorrow morning and
afternoon, but terminal impacts at ACT are uncertain enough to
include in the ACT TAF at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 82 98 76 / 0 10 10 0
Waco 101 79 99 74 / 0 20 20 0
Paris 101 77 93 69 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 104 79 98 72 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 103 79 96 73 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 104 83 99 76 / 0 10 10 0
Terrell 103 79 98 72 / 0 10 10 0
Corsicana 101 80 99 73 / 0 10 10 0
Temple 100 77 99 74 / 0 20 30 0
Mineral Wells 105 76 99 70 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-159>162-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
