Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
003
FXUS64 KFWD 232313
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily low storm chances can be expected through the weekend
across parts of North and Central Texas. Most locations will
stay dry! A couple severe thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening through at least Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Zonal flow in the mid and upper levels is now in place across
North and Central Texas with a series of shortwaves lined up from
Texas westward to the Pacific Ocean. These compact shortwaves will
be the impetus for thunderstorm activity throughout the weekend.
Our first opportunity to see thunderstorm activity will be late
this afternoon and overnight north and northwest of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This area will remain highly unstable
through the afternoon as the dryline continues to sharpen just to
our northwest. If a thunderstorm develops, it would likely be
near the Wichita Falls area with initial storm motion to the
northeast. However, as the storm matures, storm motion would
likely become easterly to southeasterly which would place our Red
River counties in the severe thunderstorm threat area. Again, this
afternoon`s severe weather potential hinges on there being a
storm or two that move east into our region.
Overnight, a thunderstorm complex is expected to shift south out
of Kansas and into Oklahoma with the potential for westward back
building along the leading edge of the MCS. Given favorable
instability and moisture in place, it`s not outside of the realm
of possibilities that our northeastern counties experience a few
storms close to sunrise Friday. This activity is expected to be on
a weakening trend as it approaches North Texas, however, gusty
winds cannot be ruled out.
Late tomorrow morning and into the afternoon, a surface low is
expected to develop across Oklahoma and slide south towards North
Texas. This feature will create two areas that will need to be
monitored tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. The greatest
confidence in thunderstorm activity will be across our East Texas
counties, where a psuedo-cold front is expected to stall.
Instability of nearly 3000 J/Kg is expected with about 40 kts of
effective shear. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
hazards, however, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
A secondary area of thunderstorm activity is being depicted by
the latest guidance across Central Texas. This is likely
attributed to a subtle shortwave expected to emerge out of
northern Mexico and move east during the afternoon. With the
dryline draped from northeast to southwest across Central Texas,
enough vertical forcing may be in place for a few strong to severe
storms. The strength of the cap tomorrow afternoon will dictate
whether storms develop or not. Large hail and damaging winds would
be the main threats.
Storm chances will come to an end tomorrow night with the loss of
daytime heating and a departing mid-level supporting system.
Overnight temperatures both tonight and tomorrow will be in the
60s and 70s across the region with highs in the 80s to 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
By Saturday, our zonal flow will begin to take more of a
southwesterly direction as troughing amplifies across the western
US. The psudo-cold front mentioned above will quickly migrate
northward, leaving all of North and Central Texas with southerly
low-level winds. The dryline will once again sharpen in the
afternoon, coexisting with very high instability and 30-40 kts of
deep layer shear. Although the main forcing for ascent is
expected to bypass our region to the north, temperatures in the
upper 80s to mid 90s may be sufficient to reach convective
temperature and generate a few severe thunderstorms. All
convective hazards will be possible.
By early Sunday, surface cyclogenesis across Oklahoma will help
push a cold front south into our region. High instability will
precede the approaching cold front which could help fire off
showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level diffluence, in conjunction
with the passing shortwave, will once again lead to a return of
strong to severe thunderstorms. The highest thunderstorm
potential will remain along and north of I-20 given the highest
forcing will for ascent will remain across Oklahoma. The latest
soundings for areas south of I-20 depict a stronger capping
inversion in place which should prevent thunderstorm development.
Going into next week, North and Central Texas will remain in an
unsettled weather pattern as we remain wedged between a trough in
the western CONUS and a ridge across northern Mexico. An influx of
low-level moisture, coupled with daily transient shortwaves, will
lead to low rain chances each afternoon through Thursday.
Thermodynamic profiles suggest there may be a continued strong to
severe weather threat, however, confidence in exact hazards,
timing and location remains low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Will need to keep an eye on dryline convection which may impact
the UKW corner post later this evening, but direct thunderstorm
impacts are not expected at any of the TAF locations. The main
impacts will be a return of MVFR ceilings tonight, which should
arrive around 05Z at KACT and 07Z in the DFW Metroplex. Conditions
will improve to VFR around midday Friday. Gusty south winds will
continue tonight into Friday, eventually decreasing to 5-10 kt
Friday evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
Waco 70 88 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
Paris 68 83 63 83 / 30 40 40 10
Denton 68 88 63 89 / 10 10 10 10
McKinney 69 86 65 87 / 10 10 20 10
Dallas 70 90 68 90 / 10 10 20 10
Terrell 69 86 66 87 / 10 10 30 10
Corsicana 71 87 70 89 / 10 10 20 10
Temple 70 87 69 89 / 10 20 20 10
Mineral Wells 67 90 63 91 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
