Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
912
FXUS64 KFWD 151137
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through
early Friday. Heavy rain may increase the threat for flooding
during this period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
A rather uneventful weather day is once again expected today
across North and Central Texas as high pressure remains in
control. With subsidence atop our region, afternoon temperatures
this afternoon will rise into the 80s with a few 90s possible
near Mineral Wells, Graham and Breckenridge. Similar to the past
several afternoons, a south/southwesterly breeze will be in place
with gusts reaching 20-30 mph through around sunset.
The area of high pressure will begin to break down as we head into
tomorrow as a trough enters the western CONUS. Concurrent with the
slow moving West Coast trough, a much more amplified longwave
trough will impact the eastern half of the country. Although
impacts from the eastern trough will be minimal, a weak cold front
will manage to temporarily make an appearance tomorrow morning
and afternoon, stalling across North Texas. With northerly winds
in place across some parts of North Texas, afternoon highs will be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
The new week ahead will bring a series of weather changes as the
pattern overhead gradually becomes more complex. On Monday, the
West Coast trough referenced in the short-term discussion will be
migrating across the Rockies. This will induce lee cyclogenesis
across central Colorado, thus, inducing a rapid northward mass
response over our region. PWATs will rise by about 0.5" across the
region from Monday to Tuesday, with an additional 0.5-0.75"
increase from Tuesday to Wednesday. With abundant moisture in
place, cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will arrive on Tuesday and
persist through the latter half of the week.
With the shortwave across the Front Range sliding east into the
Upper Mid-West, another shortwave will enter the southwestern
CONUS and begin tracking eastward through the first half of the
week. This system will likely bring more impactful weather to the
region as it slowly inches closer, and in doing so, it`ll send
embedded disturbances atop our region as early as Tuesday Night.
With each passing disturbance, expect rain chance to increase.
Rain chances will be the greatest on Thursday as the main upper
trough moves overhead.
Given the complexity of the overall weather pattern across the
region, there are still some uncertainties when it comes to total
rainfall amounts and thunderstorm intensity. The latest cluster
analysis has sided with the slower eastward progression of the
system, meaning, just over half of the available ensemble members
keep the shortwave west of our region through Thursday. This
slower solution would allow for moisture to continue to be drawn
northward into North and Central Texas as periodic waves of
forcing for ascent move overhead. Given the slower progression,
most likely rainfall amounts will range between 2-4" over the 3
day period starting Tuesday night. Timing of the heaviest rain
remains unclear at this time, however, given near record amounts
of moisture in the atmosphere, the threat for flooding will
increase. The overall strong-severe potential remains unclear
given weak to moderately-weak shear profiles and the amount of
competing updrafts that are likely to develop. These details are
expected to clear up as we get closer to next week, therefore,
make sure to monitor over the next several days as the specific
details are likely to change between today and the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
MVFR conditions are ongoing across KACT at this time and will
likely continue through around 16z. Across North Texas, an MVFR
deck has developed within D10, however, it is currently just east
of all TAF sites. There will continue to be a potential for the
MVFR ceilings to expand towards KDFW, KGKY and KDAL, therefore, a
TEMPO group was retained from 13-16z. For KAFW and KFTW, the
potential for MVFR has decreased and is now looking unlikely,
therefore, the MVFR mention has been removed.
Once the MVFR deck lifts later today, expected VFR conditions with
southerly winds in place. A few gusts to near 25 kts will be
possible this afternoon.
Beyond the next 24 hours, a cold front will slide southward into
North Texas and produce a wind shift closer to 12z. Winds behind
the front will be between 7-9 kts. Precipitation is not expected
along the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 84 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 81 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 86 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 84 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 86 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 84 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 85 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 85 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 91 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
