Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
769
FXUS64 KFWD 221827
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1227 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another cold night is expected tonight with overnight lows near
or below freezing for much of the region. Warmer and rain-free
conditions are forecast through most of the upcoming week.
- An elevated wildfire threat will materialize Tuesday through
Thursday due to above normal temperatures, low humidity, and
breezy southwesterly winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
After a chilly Sunday morning, temperatures are steadily rising
into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Despite the abundant sunshine,
persistent northerly breeze will help keep this afternoon`s highs
generally in the 50s, which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for
this time of the year. As a surface high pressure slides eastward
and closer to our region tonight into tomorrow morning, winds will
become light. With dry air, mostly clear skies, and light winds,
expect another cold night with more locations seeing near or below
freezing temperatures by Monday morning. Lows will range from 28
to 34 degrees, so make sure to bundle up for the morning commute.
As the center of the surface high moves east of our area tomorrow
afternoon, winds will begin to shift to the east-southeast. With
little change in the air mass, tomorrow`s highs will be on the
cooler side but a few degrees warmer than today. Many areas
across the Big Country and Central Texas will see highs in the
low to mid 60s with mid-upper 50s elsewhere. With the return of
the southerly winds Monday night`s temperatures will range from
the mid 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
The extended portion of the forecast continues to highlight a
warming trend, dry weather, and increased fire weather threat
during the mid-late week period.
Temperatures will quickly warm into the 70s on Tuesday as the
southerly flow becomes fully established and a thermal ridge in
the lower levels expands eastward across the region. Winds will
also increase during the day thanks to a tight pressure gradient
between the surface high to our east and an approaching surface
low east of the Rockies. Southwest winds 10-20 mph and gusts near
25-30 mph can be expected generally from mid morning through the
afternoon hours. Unfortunately, moisture will be limited with RH
dropping to 20-35 percent in the afternoon. As it has been
highlighted over the last few days, the combination of low
humidity and breezy winds will result in elevated fire weather
conditions. While the focus is mainly across the western zones due
to the lower humidity, any area with rainfall deficit (i.e. areas
that have seen less than half of what is normal for the month)
will also be susceptible to at least initial attack grass fires.
The threat will continue on Wednesday as a dryline approaches our
region.
The surface low and associated cold front will move southward
Wednesday night into Thursday with breezy northerly winds behind
it. This system won`t bring any decent rain chances as the best
moisture will remain east of our area. Additionally, we won`t see
a big drop in temperatures as the bulk of the cold air stays
north. Afternoon highs are forecast to remain in the 70s both
Thursday and Friday. The combination of breezy conditions and
lower humidity on Thursday may still result in some elevated fire
threat mainly across West TX. Looking ahead into next weekend,
models are showing another front pushing south that could bring
another slight cool down but very low rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
VFR conditions will continue through Monday afternoon. Light
northerly winds will prevail this evening through tomorrow
morning before they become southerly in the afternoon. Outside of
a few passing high clouds, no other impacts are anticipated.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 34 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 59 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 53 28 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 56 27 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 55 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 58 34 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 57 29 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 60 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 61 31 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 58 29 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
