Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
623
FXUS64 KFWD 280629
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
129 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM Tuesday evening
across much of North and Central Texas where heat index
readings could reach up to 109.
- Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the work week
with little relief in sight, and additional Heat Advisories or
possibly Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Ridging aloft will dominate the weather pattern over the next
several days keeping hot and dry conditions over North and
Central Texas through the short-term forecast period and much of
the work week. Expect highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s Tuesday
afternoon with heat index values peaking in the 105-109 degree
range across much of the region. Several Central Texas counties,
including Bell and McLennan, were added to the Heat Advisory that
is in effect through 8PM Tuesday evening. Make sure you are taking
the necessary precautions to keep you and your loved ones safe
from heat-related illnesses. More efficient mixing will keep
heat index values in our Big Country counties along and west of
Hwy 281 near the ambient air temperature. Still hot! But not
meeting Heat Advisory criteria. Expect Tuesday night lows in the
mid 70s to low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Hot, dry, and mostly sunny conditions will persist through the end
of the work week. Afternoon highs may actually start to creep up
two to three degrees Thursday-Friday as upper ridging strengthens
and spins back toward the Texas Panhandle. Increasing moisture
ahead of a weak frontal boundary may also tick heat index values
above 110 degrees across parts of North Texas late in the work
week, potentially requiring the eventual issuance of an Extreme
Heat Warning.
Latest model guidance continues to highlight a rather strong upper
low pushing southeastward across the Upper Mississippi River
Valley over the weekend shunting the upper ridge west toward the
Four Corners and allowing for a weak frontal boundary to slide
into North Texas early in the weekend. This may allow for slightly
"cooler" temperatures Saturday and Sunday, however the main
difference that will be felt is a subtle drop in humidity keeping
heat index values mostly below 105 degrees. There will be some
moisture to work with along and ahead of the front, so the
weakness in the heights aloft along with subtle forcing along the
front may be enough to initiate a few showers and storms over the
weekend across parts of North and Central Texas. This activity
will likely remain very isolated and most locations will continue
to experience dry weather conditions. Wind speeds will remain
relatively light through at least the next 7 days, but persistent
dry and hot conditions and emerging dry, fine vegetation/fuels
may lead to an environment supportive of new fire starts as we
head further into the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
VFR conditions with south winds around 10 kts will prevail at all
terminals through the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 81 102 83 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 99 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 102 79 102 81 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 102 79 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 103 82 102 83 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 101 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 103 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
