Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
880
FXUS64 KFWD 121655
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
through 8 PM this evening.
- A stray shower or storm (10-15% chance) can`t be ruled out
across portions of East and Central Texas this afternoon.
- Near-record high temperatures will continue into the upcoming
work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
As ridging amplifies over the South and Southeast CONUS, high
heights building in across the region will result in clear skies
and dry conditions for the vast majority of those across North
and Central Texas. Temperatures will remain at near record warm
levels for this time of year with triple digit highs expected this
weekend for much of the region.
Despite strong diurnal mixing during the afternoon and evening
hours, deep Gulf moisture will remain in place especially along
and east of the I-35 corridor with dew points struggling to drop
below the upper-60s/lower-70s. This combined with temperatures
ranging from 95-103 will result in afternoon heat indices in the
100-108 degree range today. As such, a Heat Advisory has been
issued for much of the area today through 8 PM. There may need to
be another Heat Advisory for areas along and east of the I-35
corridor tomorrow, but uncertainties in the degree of diurnal
mixing precludes an issuance decision at this time. Regardless,
heat indices Sunday afternoon and evening will be very hot, likely
ranging from 100-104 with isolated pockets (primarily north of
I-20 and east of I-35) of 105-106 degree heat indices possible.
Given the amount of boundary layer moisture in place and strong
diurnal heating expected, a stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out (10-15% chance) across portions of Central Texas and for
areas North of I-20 and east of I-35. However, strong synoptic
scale subsidence and the lack of any surface boundaries in the
area may very well prevent the development of any convection
across the region this weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Strong upper-level ridging and surface high pressure are expected
to dominate the region`s weather pattern this upcoming work week.
Expect dry conditions and near-record highs (95-103 degrees) each
day.
Just beyond the current forecast period, some medium-range
guidance suggests a cold front may make it as far south as Texas
sometime next weekend. We will continue to monitor this signal and
discuss it more in future forecasts should subsequent model runs
continue to resolve this scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
There is a low chance (10-20%) for periodic MVFR CIGS at KACT
11Z-15Z. However, confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this
time. Otherwise, VFR conditions and southerly flow (150-200) at
7-13 knots will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of this
forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 81 101 81 / 0 0 10 10
Waco 101 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 0
Paris 99 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 10
Denton 102 78 101 78 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 102 77 101 77 / 10 0 10 10
Dallas 102 81 102 81 / 0 0 10 10
Terrell 101 77 101 77 / 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 100 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10
Temple 100 76 100 75 / 10 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 102 74 101 75 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
