Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
281
FXUS64 KFWD 061037
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Additional showers and storms will affect much of North and
Central Texas today through Sunday. Localized heavy rainfall
and flash flooding is the main hazard, and a Flood Watch is in
effect for much of North Texas.
- A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail are also
possible from this afternoon into tonight.
- Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the
upcoming week with heat index values near or above 100 degrees
each afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Flash flooding will be at the forefront of concerns through the
next ~36 hours as a slow-moving upper low interacts with rich
Gulf moisture content to produce locally heavy rainfall.
As of midnight, an upper low positioned over the Permian Basin
continues to make gradual northeastward progress, its attendant
ascent clearly evident by widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity stretching from the Texas Hill Country to southwestern
Oklahoma. Most of this convection is expected to remain west of
the CWA this morning and tied more closely to the center of the
upper low. However, scattered convection with moderate/heavy
rainfall will continue to affect our Central Texas counties
through the pre-dawn hours, before a likely rapid expansion up
the I-35 corridor occurs around or after sunrise. Most of the
activity through the daytime is likely to be near and east of
I-35 within a band a localized ascent, while the western half of
the CWA stays relatively inactive through the afternoon hours.
By this evening, the upper low and trough axis along with
anomalously high PW values will become juxtaposed such that
widespread new convective development capable of heavy rainfall
will begin training across western portions of North Texas, and
this could persist for several hours into Sunday morning. Where
exactly this corridor of heavy rainfall will materialize is still
uncertain, but recent high-res guidance has been consistently
targeting an area roughly near/west of I-35 and near/north of
I-20. The 00z HREF PMM guidance suggests a reasonable worst-case
bulls-eye of as mush as 8-10" of rain, but we will advertise a
slightly more conservative 6-8" in the recently issued Flood Watch
as these higher-end values are only supported by 1-2 ensemble
members at this time.
In addition to the flooding threat, there may also be a few
strong or marginally severe storms with hail/wind hazards mainly
from late this afternoon into tonight, but this potential overall
remains rather low. The slightly cooler mid-level temps in closer
proximity to the cold core low may steepen lapse rates
sufficiently to support a few occurrences of hail. The microburst
potential will be on the low side with an overall poor
thermodynamic environment in the presence of tropical-like thermal
profiles and low cloud bases.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will steadily taper off from west
to east during the daytime Sunday with the eventual departure of
the ejecting upper trough axis, and most of the area will clear
out by mid afternoon. Due to clearing skies, high temperatures
will be able to climb a few degrees higher than preceding days
with many areas peaking near 90 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The long term portion of the forecast appears rather uneventful at
this time following the departure of the weekend storm system. As
the trough axis vacates the area to the northeast, mid-level
ridging will take its place, and a 590+ dam high will build in
through most of the upcoming workweek. This will mean a return to
above normal temperatures with highs in the mid 90s and some upper
90s possible through the second half of the week. This will also
be our first extended period so far this summer of heat index
values near or exceeding 100F while overnight lows only fall to
the mid or upper 70s. Some medium-range guidance is suggesting a
possible frontal intrusion next weekend, but that is a
climatologically unlikely scenario that is difficult to believe at
this time range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Widespread precipitation will continue to affect the TAF sites
through this morning before a lull in convective activity occurs
roughly from midday through most of the afternoon. Lightning
activity near the airports has been scarce, but will retain VCTS
for the next couple of hours before this potential likely draws
to a close by mid morning. MVFR/IFR cig heights occasionally
accompany bouts of heavier rain, but VFR is likely to be the
predominant condition for the next few hours. A period of low cigs
may follow the departure of precipitation later this morning
before a permanent scattering to VFR occurs around/after 18z.
Following a minimum in convective coverage this afternoon and
early evening, additional showers and storms should develop and
spread into the area from the west tonight, although this timing
remains quite uncertain. Will carry a period of SHRA/VCTS towards
the end of the valid forecast period, although this may need to be
moved a few hours in either direction depending on trends later
today.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 72 90 76 / 60 60 70 10
Waco 86 73 88 75 / 60 40 20 0
Paris 81 71 85 73 / 80 30 80 20
Denton 86 71 89 76 / 60 70 80 10
McKinney 83 72 87 75 / 80 50 70 10
Dallas 85 73 91 76 / 70 60 70 10
Terrell 84 72 88 74 / 80 40 50 10
Corsicana 84 74 90 76 / 80 30 30 10
Temple 86 74 89 75 / 40 30 20 0
Mineral Wells 86 69 90 74 / 40 80 60 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
