Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
481
FXUS64 KFWD 012357 AAA
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
657 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20-30% storm coverage is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A few
storms could produce strong gusty winds, but widespread severe
weather is not expected.
- Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The overall forecast message below remains on-track, but we did
update our PoP forecast to better capture tomorrow`s convective
trends. We are still expecting the coverage of storms to remain
scattered (~30%), but we have higher confidence of storms
developing. Forecast soundings indicate that it should not take
much lift to initiate storms tomorrow afternoon. Since multiple
clusters of storms have developed in Kansas, Oklahoma, and
Arkansas, we should have at least a couple remnant outflow
boundaries or gravity waves in our area that will help initiate
storms. There is still uncertainty regarding placement of these
boundaries and the timing of storms, but it`s now less a question
of *if* storms develop, and now more a question of *when and
where* storms develop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The rest of this afternoon will remain warm and dry as mid-level
ridge axis remains centered over North and Central Texas. Expect
today`s highs to reach the mid 90s across much of the region. Heat
index values will range from 98 to 102 degrees; make sure you`re
staying hydrated if spending time outdoors!
On Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will weaken while a weak backdoor
front approaches the ArkLaTex region. This boundary will
gradually progress to the southwest through the afternoon,
allowing scattered storms to develop initially along and east of
I-35. With continued forward progress, storm chances will also
migrate southeast as the day goes on.
Storm coverage should remain scattered, with the best chances
across North and East Texas. Strong heating and modest instability
will support a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds, small
hail and brief heavy rainfall. The overall severe threat remains
low, but an isolated severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Storms
should decrease Tuesday night with the loss of daytime heating,
though isolated showers or storms may linger into the evening
across eastern portions of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
A subtle pattern change will begin Wednesday as weak upper
troughing spreads out of northern Mexico into West Texas. This
will bring daily low-end storm chances back to portions of North
and Central Texas through late week.
On Wednesday, slightly drier air may filter into the eastern
counties while better moisture and lift remain west of I-35.
Scattered storms may develop along a dryline or weak surface
trough well to our west, with some activity possibly reaching the
western counties late in the day or evening.
A similar setup is expected Thursday, with the better storm
chances generally across western portions of the forecast area. A
few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail, but
organized severe weather remains unlikely.
Rain chances should increase Friday into early Saturday as
stronger height falls overspread North and Central Texas ahead of
the main disturbance. This appears to be the best window for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms, though timing differences
remain among the guidance.
Rain chances should begin to decrease by Sunday as the disturbance
moves east of the region. Temperatures will trend closer to
seasonal normal by mid to late week due to increased cloud cover
and rain chances, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower
90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
VFR and south flow should prevail this evening, with the winds
going calm or light/variable after midnight. Multiple clusters of
storms well to the north of D10 will send a few outflow boundaries
south tonight. These outflows should make the winds a challenge
tomorrow, but the newest TAFs attempt to capture the larger-scale
flow trends, knowing there may be some erratic wind shifts from
about 09-16Z.
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NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
