Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
285
FXUS64 KFWD 081056
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
556 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through next week.
- Low storm chances are expected this afternoon across the region.
Gusty winds will be the main threat.
- Isolated storms are expected to continue into next week across
our east/southeast counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Earlier convection continues to weaken across the Arklatex tonight
with a canopy of high clouds streaming back across North Texas.
The rest of the night will generally be quiet although we can`t
rule out an isolated shower along the remnant outflow boundary
that is draped along I-20 at this hour. Mid level ridging will
continue to prevail across the Southern Plains today but the
center of the ridge axis is located over the Four Corners region.
Weak height falls around the eastern periphery of this ridge will
overspread the region this afternoon. With the aforementioned
remnant outflow boundary still serving as a focus for low level
convergence, we`ll likely see some widely scattered showers and
storms develop during peak heating. The focused area of low level
convergence will likely remain in the general area of the I-20
corridor into the afternoon and this is where we`ll have some
20-30% PoPs. With temperatures again expected to be near 100
degrees, T/Td spreads will approach 30-35 degrees and will be
more than supportive for an isolated severe downburst wind gust
with the strongest storm cores that develop. This activity will be
diurnally driven and decrease in coverage into the evening hours.
Ridging will become a little more pronounced on Sunday with
convective coverage likely limited to sea breeze activity
spreading into our southeast counties. Highs will top out in the
99-102 degree range. With deep boundary layer mixing expected
today and Sunday, only a few isolated locations are likely to hit
heat index values of 105 degrees.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Mid level ridging will continue to prevail across the southern
Plains through the end of the week with little chance for rainfall
outside of some isolated sea breeze activity in the southeast.
Temperatures will continue to run about 5-7 degrees above normal
with highs in the 100-103 degree range for much of the week.
Continued drying of fine fuels and low afternoon RH will support
increased grass fire starts across the region despite generally
light winds. This pattern is likely to continue into mid/late
August.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
VFR prevails across the region this morning with a BKN deck of
clouds around 15,000 ft just east of the major airports. Radar
also shows a few spotty showers trying to develop. We`ll maintain
VFR through the morning with coverage too low to mention any
precip during the morning hours, however the short term guidance
is a little more aggressive with convective development later this
afternoon along that old outflow boundary near the I-20 corridor.
That being said, we`ll have a PROB30 for TSRA from 21-00Z and
include a variable wind gust as the environment will be favorable
for strong outflow winds. Outside of any convection, VFR will
prevail with south flow around 10 kt. Any scattered storms in the
area will diminish with loss of daytime heating.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 100 80 / 20 10 0 0
Waco 99 76 100 76 / 10 10 0 0
Paris 97 74 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 101 77 100 77 / 10 10 0 0
McKinney 99 76 100 76 / 20 10 0 0
Dallas 101 80 101 80 / 20 10 0 0
Terrell 99 75 99 76 / 30 10 0 0
Corsicana 99 76 99 76 / 20 20 0 0
Temple 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 100 74 101 75 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
