Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
541
FXUS64 KFWD 171048
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid weather will prevail during the middle of this
week, with heat index values of 100 to 105 today and 105 to 110
on Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide for
Thursday afternoon.
- The arrival of another front late Thursday and Friday will bring
additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the
area for the end of the workweek and the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
The main focus through the short term forecast will be the
building heat and humidity through the midweek period. The
warming trend will continue today as mid-level troughing slowly
translates eastward from the Texas Gulf Coast, while height rises
take its place. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday as a result, while max heat index values climb into the
100-105 degree range area-wide. WBGTs will peak around 85-86 this
afternoon. Dewpoints will only mix into the upper 60s and lower
70s, also a few degrees higher than yesterday, and the increased
humidity will not go unnoticed. One offsetting factor today will
be a decent southerly breeze of 10-15 mph with some gusts of 20-25
mph which will offer modest relief.
More oppressive heat will take hold on Thursday as a weak frontal
zone sags southward towards the Red River late in the day. Mid
70s dewpoints will be present all day, even through peak heating,
while temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s. The result
will be widespread heat index values of 105-110 with max WBGTs
around 90. Heat Advisory criteria will undoubtedly be met across
the entire area as there is essentially no risk for cloud cover
or convection to interrupt what will be a dangerously hot
afternoon, and one valid for Thursday afternoon has been issued
with this morning`s forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Weather concerns will temporarily shift from heat to convection
Thursday evening/night as the slow-moving frontal zone continues
to advance towards North Texas while accompanied by thunderstorm
chances. Convection may attempt initiate near a triple point
intersection across the Big Country as early as Thursday afternoon
which would spread into parts of North Texas in the evening.
However, the extent of this development in the vicinity of the
dryline is still quite uncertain due to what should be strong
mixing out of low-level moisture and significant dry air
entrainment for updrafts to overcome. The greater chance for
convection will be along the front in North Texas Thursday night
into Friday where persistent lift will be present in the vicinity
of this boundary, along with a weak mid-level trough which will
have aided in breaking down shortwave ridging from the previous
days. Scattered convection will be a possibility across much of
the area heading overnight and into Friday as a result, with
coverage of 30-50%. While the chance for organized severe weather
will be low during this time window, there will be a potential
for strong downburst wind gusts as well as heavy rain and
localized flooding. Areas unaffected by convection on Friday will
likely be dealing with another afternoon of oppressive heat and
humidity, and a subset of counties may need the Heat Advisory to
be continued for a second day as a result.
The frontal boundary will become increasingly washed
out heading into the weekend as moist southerly flow becomes
reestablished, while daily chances for isolated/scattered
convection continue. The presence of occasional precipitation and
increased cloud cover may temper heat index values to an extent
over the upcoming weekend, but if convective coverage is less
than presently forecast, then a return to 105+ heat index values
would certainly be of concern. Recent medium-range guidance is in
decent agreement on another frontal intrusion occurring during
the first half of next week as an unusually active pattern
persists into late June.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
MVFR stratus has struggled to expand northward overnight with
cigs remaining well south of the airports in closer proximity to a
coastal low pressure system. This trend is likely to continue
through the morning, and it is unlikely that anything more than
intermittent cigs near 2 kft are able to materialize near D10 TAF
sites through the next few hours. For this reason, we will
indicate only a short Tempo group with MVFR cigs, with VFR likely
to be the prevailing condition this morning. For Waco, a few
hours of low cigs are still expected after sunrise, and degraded
flight categories will be prevailed for the KACT TAF through much
of the morning. Otherwise, a south breeze around 15G25KT can be
expected through much of the afternoon before lighter winds and
another brief stratus intrusion occurs tonight into Thursday
morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 77 98 79 / 0 0 0 40
Waco 92 76 95 78 / 0 0 0 10
Paris 91 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 60
Denton 93 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 50
McKinney 92 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 50
Dallas 94 77 97 79 / 0 0 0 30
Terrell 92 75 96 77 / 0 0 0 30
Corsicana 91 76 96 79 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 91 75 95 79 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 95 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
