Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
585
FXUS64 KFWD 221057
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
557 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into next
week with several bouts of showers and thunderstorms across the
region. The severe weather threat is low at this time. Flash
flooding will be the main threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Showers and thunderstorms have largely diminished this evening,
with only a few very light remnant showers lingering across
portions of East Texas. Any remaining activity should continue to
fade or shift east of the forecast area through the next couple of
hours as the weak disturbance responsible for today`s activity
departs. Lingering low cloud cover behind this evening`s
convection should limit the overall fog potential late tonight,
but the near-surface environment remains very moist following
widespread rainfall and with no frontal passage to scour out
moisture. Light winds may still allow scattered areas of lowered
visibility or patchy fog to develop around daybreak Friday, which
could affect the morning commute in some areas.
Friday should be quieter for most of North and Central Texas with
weak subsidence in place between disturbances. A few showers or
storms may redevelop Friday afternoon across our far eastern and
southeastern counties where deeper moisture lingers and low-level
moisture convergence becomes a bit more focused, but coverage
should remain low. The next shortwave will move into the Southern
Plains late Friday night into early Saturday, with thunderstorms
expected to develop upstream across northwest Texas and western
Oklahoma before moving east along the Red River through daybreak
Saturday. High-resolution guidance has generally converged on this
scenario, but the low-level jet looks far too modest to support a
long-lived MCS making a convective cluster(s) the more likely
convective mode. PoPs will still increase late Friday night
across our northwest counties and the Big Country, with the better
storm chances spreading east Saturday morning mostly north of
I-20. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main
concerns, with a low damaging wind threat if storms are able to
maintain better organization into North Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Saturday`s forecast will depend heavily on how much of the Friday
night/Saturday morning storm cluster survives into North Texas
and where any outflow is left behind. Subsidence in the wake of
the departing convection should limit redevelopment across much of
North Texas through the afternoon, and PoPs have been lowered in
this area compared to the deterministic NBM. Low PoPs remain in
place given the potential for the morning activity to be weaker,
more displaced, or less stabilizing, which would allow a broader
portion of the region to recover enough for isolated to scattered
afternoon storms. The better afternoon redevelopment chances
should favor Central and Southeast Texas, including the Brazos
Valley, where richer moisture and better instability recovery are
more likely. Severe weather potential remains low, but brief
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain will be
possible with any stronger storms.
By Sunday, guidance generally brings a weak upper low or compact
trough into North Texas. This feature should provide a better
focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially where
low-level convergence, remnant outflow, and daytime heating
overlap. Weak steering flow and a moist air mass will keep
rainfall efficiency high, so pockets of heavy rain may occur even
with loosely organized convection. The exact placement of the
heaviest rain will depend on where Saturday`s boundaries settle
and how the upper low evolves, but Central Texas, eastern North
Texas, and the Brazos Valley will be areas to watch through the
second half of the weekend.
Rain and storm chances will continue Memorial Day into the middle
of next week as the weekend disturbance slowly shifts east and
another western CONUS trough eventually turns the flow aloft more
southwesterly again. This will keep enough moisture and weak lift
over the region for daily shower and storm chances, with another
uptick possible Tuesday and Wednesday as the next disturbance
approaches. This still looks more like a heavy rain and nuisance
storm pattern than an organized severe weather setup, though a
few stronger storms cannot be ruled out during peak heating.
Flooding concerns will remain localized, but the risk will
increase where repeated rounds occur over areas that have already
seen meaningful rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Low ceilings remain the main aviation concern this morning, with
conditions fluctuating between low-end MVFR and brief IFR across
parts of D10 with a few breaks in the clouds noted over the last
several hours. Additional brief drops near or below 1 kft will
remain possible through mid-morning, particularly at western
Metroplex terminals. Despite light to calm winds and a very moist
near-surface layer, persistent low-cloud cover should continue to inhibit
widespread fog development, with lower visibilities remaining
mainly west of the Metroplex. Ceilings should lift and scatter by
early afternoon, with VFR prevailing for the rest of the day.
The next aviation concern will arrive late tonight into early
Saturday morning as a shortwave moves into the Plains supporting one
or more convective clusters moving east along/near the Red River.
Guidance continues to bring this activity into North Texas after
06Z, with the most likely window for impacts along the I-35
corridor between 08-14Z. A modest low-level jet favors clusters of
showers and storms rather than a more organized MCS, so timing
and coverage (including the southward extent of impacts) remain
somewhat uncertain. VCTS will be introduced for the Metroplex
terminals with this issuance, while confidence in thunder impacts
at KACT remains lower with only VCSH included at this time.
Gusty/erratic winds will be possible near any stronger storms.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 68 83 67 / 10 70 70 40
Waco 85 68 82 66 / 10 10 60 50
Paris 80 64 80 64 / 40 50 70 60
Denton 83 66 82 65 / 10 70 70 30
McKinney 83 66 82 66 / 10 70 80 40
Dallas 85 68 84 67 / 10 70 70 40
Terrell 84 66 83 66 / 10 60 70 40
Corsicana 87 70 85 68 / 10 30 70 50
Temple 86 69 82 66 / 10 10 70 60
Mineral Wells 84 64 83 63 / 10 70 60 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
