Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
511
FXUS64 KFWD 131834
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
134 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will continue today with highs in the
90s and peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) will
return to the area Sunday and Sunday night. Gusty winds and
heavy rainfall will be the main threats.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Temperatures this afternoon have reached the mid 90s across north
Texas. Dewpoints in the low 70s, resulting in heat indices of 100-
104. Anyone participating in outside activities should take proper
precautions to avoid heat exhaustion by staying hydrated and taking
frequent breaks in the shade as much as possible. Areas west of a
line from Lampasas to Decatur are less humid so heat indices there
are in the mid to upper 90s.
The pattern will become active again for tomorrow through tomorrow
night. An upper-level trough axis will move to the Great Lakes
tonight through Sunday which will flatten out the ridge across north
Texas. Several embedded shortwaves should traverse the southern
Plains on Sunday and Sunday night. At the surface, a cold front will
move into north Texas tomorrow morning and stall along the I-30
corridor. Hi-res models show that showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the Red River overnight in southeast Oklahoma then
slowly push into northeast Texas after sunrise. While this initial
activity may weaken or dissipate by mid-morning, new scattered
storms are expected to develop along and near the front by early
afternoon. Forecast soundings show a small inverted V near the
surface so some locally gusty downburst winds could occur with any
cell that develops. However, locally heavy rainfall will be the
bigger concern with PWATs of 1.8-2.3 inches. A widespread flood
event is not expected during the daytime, but given the plentiful
moisture in this airmass, any cell could produce a quick 1-2 inches
of rain. Furthermore, repeated rounds of storms over any location
could result in locally higher amounts of near 3 inches. Outside of
convection, the airmass will be quite hot and humid with high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The dewpoints look to be in the
low to mid 70s which would put heat indices in the 100-104 degree
range yet again. However, additional clouds and precipitation
compared to today could result in lower afternoon temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Chances for rain and thunderstorms will increase Sunday night as
another wave of upper-level energy approaches the region from the
north-central US. Storm coverage should start to increase by late
Sunday evening across the I-30 corridor and activity will slowly
push southeastward through Monday morning. Additional heavy rainfall
of 1-2 inches could occur with these storms as PWAT values increase
to around 2.5 inches in some places. The highest rain chances should
shift southeastward through the day and be mostly confined to the
Brazos Valley and east Texas. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a
concern for these areas as storms could produce 1-2 inches with
higher amounts possible.
The southern Plains should remain in a predominantly northwest flow
aloft pattern for the middle to latter part of next week. The
frontal boundary should continue further southward on Tuesday and
allow rain chances to be confined mainly to southeast Texas although
some lingering showers and storms could occur for the Brazos Valley.
Southerly surface flow will return by midweek. This should allow
hot and humid conditions to return for Wednesday and Thursday. High
temperatures could push back into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s. There is a low to medium (20-50%) chance that
heat indices could reach 100-105 for both days. The X factor,
however, is that a weak tropical system that will move northeast out
of south Texas on Wednesday. This could introduce some higher rain
chances for Thursday and Friday. For now, these were kept to 30-40%
until models resolve details a bit better.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
VFR conditions with breezy southerly winds are expected to
continue this evening and for most of the night. By sunrise, a
cold front will move into north Texas. This will introduce MVFR
ceilings and chances for brief showers and thunderstorms for
terminals in D10. Winds will turn out of the north behind the
front, but should remain less than 10KT. For terminals south of
the front, southerly winds will continue through 18Z tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 91 71 82 / 0 60 80 60
Waco 77 92 73 81 / 0 30 100 80
Paris 76 85 69 78 / 30 70 70 60
Denton 78 88 68 81 / 20 80 70 50
McKinney 78 88 69 79 / 20 60 80 50
Dallas 79 93 71 82 / 0 50 80 60
Terrell 77 91 70 80 / 0 40 70 70
Corsicana 77 94 73 83 / 0 30 90 80
Temple 76 92 74 83 / 0 30 90 90
Mineral Wells 76 89 67 80 / 0 70 70 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kearney
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Kearney
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
