Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 251054
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No changes to the current forecast through Monday night. Some thin
high cloud is spreading in from the east this morning across parts
of the region, but mostly sunny skies should prevail through the
day. High temperatures will top out near or just above 100 degrees
in most locations along and west of I-35. We`ll leave the heat
advisory unchanged this morning and monitor the degree of
afternoon mixing before potentially extending it into Monday.

Dunn

&&

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Monday Night/

Mid level ridging will remain in place through Monday keeping all
of North and Central Texas hot and dry. Today should be the day
that we hit 100 degrees at DFW along with many other locations
across the region. Afternoon mixing should allow dewpoints to fall
into the mid 60s during peak heating resulting in heat indices in
the 100-105 degree range. A touch more moisture pooled in our
northeast counties along with weaker winds will likely result in a
little more humidity and perhaps a few heat indices above 105
degrees. The current heat advisory for this area will remain
unchanged. We`ll hold off on any extension for now and see how
well we mix this afternoon. Similar conditions on Monday should
result in borderline heat advisory criteria.

Otherwise, mostly clear skies through the period and light
southerly winds will prevail as we enter the hottest part of Texas
summertime.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 220 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021/
/Tuesday Through Next Weekend/

Hot and mostly rain-free weather will continue through the last
week of July as the Texas summer heat takes hold of North and
Central Texas.

A mid-level ridge centered over the Central CONUS will be the
driving force of our hot weather over the next week or so. Some
relief, in the form of showers and thunderstorms, may be possible
east of I-35 on Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches the
forecast area. Better rain chances will arrive to areas near and
south of I-20 on Wednesday as the shortwave continues to track
west along the periphery of the mid-level ridge. Only a lucky few
will see rain, however, as coverage should remain fairly
scattered. Thankfully, increased cloud cover should subdue the
triple-digit heat across most of the area on Wednesday, with highs
in the 90s.

Fewer rain chances and hotter temperatures will return late-week
and next weekend as ridging strengthens over the area. High
temperatures will top out in the mid 90s to near 104 degrees, with
morning lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

No significant aviation concerns are expected through the period
other than a brief period of patchy MVFR south and southeast of
Waco. VFR will prevail with southerly winds around 10 kt this
afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  78 102  80 101 /   0   5   0   5  10
Waco                99  74 100  76  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               97  75  97  76  96 /   5   5  10  10  20
Denton             100  75 102  76 100 /   0   5   5   5  10
McKinney            98  76 100  77  99 /   0   5   5   5  20
Dallas             100  79 101  81 100 /   0   5   0   5  20
Terrell             97  74  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   5  20
Corsicana           97  74  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              99  72  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells      100  72 100  74 100 /   0   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-102>107-118>123.

&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion