Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
121
FXUS64 KFWD 020513
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A line of thunderstorms will continue to move through most of
North and Central Texas through the early morning hours, with
isolated strong wind gusts possible.
- Another more widespread round of showers and storms will affect
the area from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, with
additional severe thunderstorms and localized flooding.
- A cold frontal passage on Saturday will bring a few days of
near or below normal temperatures from Easter Sunday into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
A line of marginally severe convection is making eastward progress
through the forecast area as of 1130pm, but will continue to
undergo a weakening trend as it encounters slightly drier air,
waning instability, and nocturnally increasing convective
inhibition. A borderline strong/severe wind threat could continue
to accompany localized segments of the line, although this
potential is expected to remain rather isolated. Showers and
thunderstorms will advance into the I-35 corridor after ~2am and
will linger through the morning commute, and will then shift
eastward after sunrise where scattered convection will persist
through the morning. An eventual dissipation of all convective
activity is forecast by midday, with a warm and tranquil afternoon
expected. Without a scouring frontal boundary accompanying
today`s convection, tonight will be warm and muggy with lows only
falling into the upper 60s. The southerly flow regime will recover
quickly, with stout theta-e advection taking place heading into
Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast from
Friday afternoon into the daytime Saturday, as a potent upper
trough traverses the Central Plains. Stronger instability will be
in place preceding this system`s arrival, mainly owing to
increased low-level moisture content with dewpoints climbing into
the 65-70F range. A subtle southern stream impulse will begin to
phase with the deeper mid-level system on Friday afternoon, and
this lead wave may contribute to open warm sector convective
development within the forecast area prior to the arrival of the
large-scale synoptic boundaries. This activity would likely only
be isolated to scattered in coverage given the lack of a well-
defined organizing boundary, but could be capable of at least
marginal strong/severe hazards.
Late Friday night into Saturday, this system`s trailing cold
front will be pulled southward into the forecast area. The
boundary itself will be accompanied by the most widespread
convective coverage, some of which is likely to reach
strong/severe levels with hail and wind threats. In addition,
rich moisture content characterized by near-record PW values of
about 1.8" will support heavy rainfall and localized flooding,
especially given shear/flow vectors that will be rather parallel
to the front`s southwest-northeast orientation. Localized flash
flooding will be of concern between midnight and noon as the front
slowly advances southward through the entire forecast area before
exiting later in the day.
In the wake of Saturday`s frontal passage, much cooler and
predominantly rain-free weather will prevail from Easter Sunday
through the early portion of next week with temperatures near or
slightly below normal. Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s,
with overnight lows in the 40s and lower 50s. A return to more
active weather is forecast in the Day 7-10 time period as deep
upstream troughing takes shape heading into mid April.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026
A sub-severe line of thunderstorms is on track to move through
the D10 airports during the predawn hours, with gusty winds and
occasional lightning. Category reductions to MVFR can be expected
within light/moderate precipitation between 08-11z before activity
tapers off to the east around sunrise. MVFR stratus is likely to
linger behind the precipitation for a few hours before clearing
out by midday. Breezy southerly winds will recover through the
rest of the afternoon and evening, with VFR prevailing through the
remainder of the period. Another MVFR stratus intrusion is
forecast on Friday morning, and this has been introduced for the
extended DFW TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 67 84 68 / 10 90 60 10
Waco 87 67 83 68 / 0 60 70 10
Paris 85 66 80 66 / 10 70 80 30
Denton 86 64 84 65 / 10 90 40 10
McKinney 85 67 83 68 / 10 90 60 20
Dallas 86 67 85 68 / 10 80 60 10
Terrell 86 67 82 68 / 0 70 80 10
Corsicana 86 69 83 70 / 0 50 80 10
Temple 87 67 83 68 / 0 40 70 10
Mineral Wells 88 64 86 65 / 10 90 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
