Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
143
FXUS64 KFWD 140718
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storms may impact our far western counties late this
afternoon and evening with a threat for severe hail and wind.
- An active pattern with chances for showers and storms will
persist this week. There is potential for strong to severe
storms again on Wednesday.
- A strong cold front on Saturday is expected to bring much cooler
temperatures and drier weather to end the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
The rest of this morning will be cloudy and breezy as winds
remain elevated and a slug of low-level stratus blankets much of
North and Central Texas by daybreak. We`ll remain dry going into
the early afternoon as lift from our incoming shortwave remains a
bit further west. Like yesterday, scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop along a dryline draped from the Panhandles
down into the Permian Basin in the afternoon in response to
upper- level lift spreading into the region, and will spread east
through the evening.
Latest thinking is that this activity will not reach our
northwest and Big Country counties really until the early evening,
with scattered storms impacting areas mainly west of the I-35
corridor this evening. With lapse rates near 7.5-8 degC/km, deep
layer shear > 40 KT, and plenty of instability, any storm that
moves into our area will have a primary threat of large hail and
damaging winds. The tornado threat will be non-zero, and may
become slightly increased later in the evening as the low-level
jet picks up and increases the 0-1 km wind shear and SRH.
Additional dryline-induced showers and storms may move in from the
southwest overnight into Wednesday morning, but the severe risk
with these would decrease the further they get into Central and
North Texas due to increasing inhibition.
Wednesday afternoon`s storm chances remain conditional on just
how much activity we observe during the morning. If we see enough
in the morning, the atmosphere may be worked over enough to
prohibit much additional development in the afternoon, which is
what the majority of CAMs are currently outputting. However if
there is not much morning convection, then the afternoon
environment would be primed for the development of scattered
storms as the upper-level shortwave moves across the Plains. Lapse
rates ~ 7 degC/km and efficient instability and deep layer shear
would promote the potential for some severe storms capable of
large hail and damaging winds. With uncertainty on the coverage of
storms in both the afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, have
lowered forecast PoPs from the NBM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
An overall lull in precipitation is expected most of the day
Thursday as upper-level ridging moves into the region in between
shortwave troughs. With the dryline remaining to our west,
afternoon high temperatures will still peak mainly in the 80s
across the region. However, isolated showers and storms may occur
in North Texas near the Red River on Friday as the ridge gets
shoved to the east ahead of our next shortwave. Lee-side troughing
out ahead of the incoming shortwave will tighten the pressure
gradient, resulting in wind gusts to around 25-30 mph on Friday.
The deepening shortwave is expected to cross the Continental
Divide Friday into Saturday, shunting the attendant cold front
south through the Plains. This front will quickly overtake our
resident dryline, moving through North and Central Texas early in
the day Saturday. Showers and storms are expected to develop near
and along the front as it advances through the region, though
severe weather is not anticipated with this activity at this time.
Behind the front, expect cooler conditions going into next week
with highs in the 60s and 70s both Sunday and Monday. Another
chance for precipitation may be possible next Monday as quick
moisture return over the cooler post-frontal airmass promotes
overrunning precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
MVFR cigs are currently spreading across much of North and
Central Texas as of 07Z, with ACT already below 2 kft and the
clouds now encroaching into eastern D10. All of D10 is expected to
drop below 2 kft by 08Z. These cigs and continued breezy south-
southeasterly winds will persist through the rest of the morning,
gradually lifting above 2 kft around noon, and finally lifting
back to VFR by mid-late this afternoon. Sustained speeds and gusts
will increase this afternoon at the TAF sites with gusts to
around 25 kts not uncommon. There is low potential for some
isolated showers this afternoon, but coverage will remain minimal
and am not confident enough for inclusion. Similar to yesterday,
scattered storm development is expected well west of the TAF sites
this afternoon and will spread east tonight, but confidence in
how far east the storms will make it is low enough to not include
in the TAF for now. Otherwise, expect another stratus intrusion
around the same time going into Wednesday morning (~08Z).
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 79 66 / 20 50 40 40
Waco 82 67 80 66 / 10 20 40 40
Paris 82 65 79 65 / 10 20 40 40
Denton 82 65 78 64 / 20 50 40 40
McKinney 82 67 78 66 / 10 40 40 40
Dallas 84 67 80 66 / 10 40 40 40
Terrell 82 67 81 66 / 10 20 40 40
Corsicana 84 68 84 69 / 10 10 40 40
Temple 83 67 82 66 / 10 10 40 40
Mineral Wells 83 65 79 63 / 40 50 50 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
