Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
705
FXUS64 KFWD 291757
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central
Texas through Thursday. Heat index value between 105-108 can be
expected.
- There is a low chance for showers/storms on Saturday as a weak
cold front moves into North Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Hot conditions will continue through Thursday as North Texas
remains under the influence of strong mid level ridging. Some thin
high clouds have filtered sun across the region a bit, but only
minor impacts to afternoon high temperatures are expected. Highs
will top out near 100 degrees today and climb a few degrees on
Thursday to between 100-102 degrees. Deep afternoon mixing will
allow dewpoints to fall into the mid 60s keeping heat index values
generally around 105 degrees. An uptick in RH values along and
north of I-20 on Thursday will push heat indices to near 108
degrees in a few locations. An axis of moisture is present on the
western periphery of a surface high over the eastern CONUS. This
moisture is present on the GOES-PW imagery extending from
Louisiana northwest into eastern Oklahoma. Some higher moisture
content across the Arklatex could result in a few isolated showers
this afternoon and again Thursday. PoPs in North Texas will remain
around 5%.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Heat will continue through the end of the week with Friday likely
being the hottest day over the next 7 days. With the ridge axis
shifting westward by Friday, increasing northerly flow will
develop through the Central Plains allowing a weak cold front to
slide southward. This front will approach the Red River Friday
evening with weak compressional warming adding to the already hot
temperatures. This should send highs upward into the 102-105
degree range. Some moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will
also add to the discomfort sending heat indices up near 110
degrees. Heat Advisories or Extreme Heat Warnings will likely be
needed/expanded for Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, the boundary will slide south of I-20 during the day
Saturday with weak northerly winds and slightly cooler air. Highs
should top out in the mid to upper 90s. There is a slight chance
for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the frontal
boundary during the afternoon on Saturday. While widespread
rainfall isn`t expected across the region, any storms that develop
could have some potential for strong downburst winds. Drier air
will continue to spread south into the region Sunday with highs in
the mid/upper 90s into early next week. Other than the low rain
chances along the front on Saturday, no significant rain chances
are expected into next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the current period with southerly
winds around 10kts. Some afternoon cumulus is expected. No
significant aviation concerns at this time.
Dunn/Borst
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 98 76 99 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 78 101 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 101 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
117>123-133>135-145-146.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ116-131-132-144-
147-148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
