Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
931
FXUS64 KFWD 130645
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
145 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
this afternoon. Heat indices of up to 106 can be expected.
- Hot and dry conditions will continue into the upcoming work
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Recent water vapor imagery portrays an eastward migration of the
anticyclonic flow associated with the 594dam 500mb subtropical ridge
currently centered over New Mexico. This is consistent with the
global model suite, which depicts amplification of the mid/upper
level cyclone over the Pacific Northwest and a continued eastward
translation of the shortwave over the Mid-South.
The region will be void of any notable surface features as the ridge
moves overhead, which, when coupled with synoptic subsidence, will
result in mostly clear skies and dry conditions as is seen on
satellite imagery tonight (aside from some convective cloud debris
near the Red River associated with decaying thunderstorms across
Central and Northern Oklahoma). A few of the CAMs have some sea
breeze activity approaching the Brazos Valley late tomorrow
afternoon. Not expecting this to survive into our southern counties.
This overall pattern also means that temperatures will remain around
10 degrees above average for this time of year. Despite strong
diurnal mixing during the afternoon, surface dewpoints are expected
to hold in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area. Paired with
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, heat indices will breach 105 in
many spots, warranting an extension of the Heat Advisory for most of
North and Central Texas for the day on Sunday.
Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week. An increasing
pressure gradient between a surface low over the Northern High
Plains and ridging over the Southeast will drive winds up to around
15 kts primarily west of the I-35 corridor on Monday. RH values in
the 35% range aren`t overly concerning, though the potential for
grass fire starts may be slightly elevated.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Well above normal temperatures and a lack of rainfall will continue
through the end of the week as persistent mid level ridging remains
in place across the Southern Plains and southeastern CONUS. By the
end of the week, the center of the ridge will become squeezed
between a strong trough moving out of the Intermountain West and a
slow westward moving upper trough over the northern Gulf. As mid
level heights decrease, we`ll see temperatures fall a few degrees
over the latter part of the week into next weekend. A cold front
will also slide south through the Plains during this time with
convection initially remaining to our north. There is still some
consistency among the medium range guidance for another front to
slide into Texas by early next week with some cooler weather and
increasing rain chances.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
KACT: Forecast soundings are suggestive of some low ceilings moving
in around 09Z. There are some ragged low clouds beginning to
develop across the Hill Country as of 0600Z, where better moisture
resides amidst some orographic uplift. The HRRR keeps these
largely southwest of the terminal, however satellite trends will
continue to be monitored.
VFR conditions will ultimately prevail for both ACT and the D10
terminals. Southerly winds around 10 kts will undergo their diurnal
variation, veering to SSE during the day then backing to SSW
tonight. Fair weather cumulus of bases ~7 kft can be expected by mid-
afternoon.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 101 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 101 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 100 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 101 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
