Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
021
FXUS64 KFWD 041025
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
525 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic storm chances will continue through the weekend with
the highest coverage Friday night through Sunday. The severe
weather threat is low, but strong storms could produce gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
This morning will be quiet for most, outside of some isolated
warm- advection induced showers spreading north into Central
Texas. Slightly better chances for showers and storms will occur
over this afternoon as diurnal heating ramps up, primarily for
areas near and east of I-35/I-35W where better moisture is
located. With no real forcing mechanism at play other than
nebulous diurnal heating, coverage will remain quite spotty. Not
everyone will observe rain later today, though anyone that is may
be impacted by lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain.
Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be fairly mild for early
June, with highs peaking in the 80s. Coverage of showers and
storms will dissipate over the evening with little to no rain
expected overnight.
Some isolated showers may once again surge northward tomorrow
morning, but the better window for rain will be a bit later
towards the afternoon and evening. A closed mid-level low to our
west/southwest will continue to move east into far West Texas/NE
Mexico during the day, spreading upper level lift a bit closer to
the region. With the best lift remaining west of us tomorrow
afternoon, diurnal heating will again the main driver for
afternoon convection. Unlike today, abundant moisture will be
spread further west, meaning the entirety of North and Central
Texas will have at least a low chance for rain. However, coverage
will remain scattered and not everyone will see a shower or storm
tomorrow afternoon. Any storm that develops would have a threat
for lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
The closed low will gradually swing to the northeast across Texas
and into Oklahoma late Friday through Sunday morning, spreading
increased lift overhead. Expect an increase in coverage of on-and-
off showers and storms during this time period, spreading from
west to east. The overall severe threat during this time remains
low, though a couple stronger storms could produce gusty, erratic
winds. However, isolated marginally severe wind gusts will not be
out of the question. PWATs of around 2" will also promote very
efficient rainfall producers, and those areas that see multiple
rounds of storms would have a better threat for minor flooding.
The low will eventually shift to our northeast, exiting towards
the Midwest towards the end of the weekend. Upper-level ridging
will begin to build in behind the departing low, generally
stunting additional chances for rain heading into this upcoming
week. With more subsident air overhead, an uptick in temperatures
is also expected. Afternoon highs this next week will feel a bit
warmer, peaking into the 90s region-wide by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
MVFR stratus has arrived at ACT and is expected to continue
northward, impacting the D10 terminals closer to around 12Z.
These lower cigs will linger through much of the morning before
finally lifting and scattering back to VFR around 16-17Z. South-
southeasterly winds with speeds up to around 10-11 KT will
prevail this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will begin to develop this afternoon, approaching the terminals
between 21-00Z. There remains low enough confidence of a direct
terminal impact, so have persisted with a mention of VCTS for
now. Any convection will wane with the loss of daytime heating.
Overnight into tomorrow, expect another round of MVFR stratus to
develop and linger through much of the morning, with denser
coverage than compared to this morning. There will also be a
potential window for IFR cigs around/just after daybreak, though
probabilities hover around 30% with latest guidance. Have decided
to wait for higher confidence before including in the TAF this far
out. There is also potential for some morning convection in the
extended DFW TAF, though once again, uncertainty in coverage and
location is enough to keep the forecast dry for now. Will
continue to keep an eye on future guidance for better agreement.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 72 87 73 / 30 20 20 50
Waco 84 71 84 72 / 40 30 20 60
Paris 82 70 84 71 / 50 20 30 30
Denton 86 72 86 72 / 20 10 20 50
McKinney 85 71 85 72 / 30 20 20 50
Dallas 88 72 88 73 / 30 20 20 50
Terrell 85 70 86 72 / 40 20 20 40
Corsicana 86 72 87 73 / 40 20 20 50
Temple 85 71 85 72 / 40 30 30 70
Mineral Wells 86 70 85 70 / 10 10 30 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
