Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
620
FXUS64 KFWD 241106
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very hot temperatures between 102 to 112 will continue through
Tuesday. The Extreme Heat Warning for all of North and Central
Texas is in effect through this evening, and will likely be
needed on Tuesday as well.
- A drop in temperatures down into the upper 90s to mid 100s is
expected from Wednesday into next weekend as low rain chances
return areawide each day. However, most locations will remain
hot and dry through the weekend.
- Hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions
will contribute to increased wildfire starts through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air raob analysis show a mid-
level ridge centered near southern New Mexico early this morning.
Westerly flow over the Rockies on the northern periphery of the
ridge has led to lee cyclogenesis, resulting in a weak 1008mb
surface low centered over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Lift
from a shortwave propagating around the ridge will promote
pressure falls over an existing weak front in western OK,
migrating the surface low eastward by late morning. This will
tighten the pressure gradient over North and Central TX and veer
surface winds to the SSW.
Given mid-level subsidence from the ridge and downslope effects from
the 15-20 mph SSW winds, we expect dangerous, extreme heat across
North and Central TX today. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect
from 12-9pm for high temps and/or heat index values up to 111
degrees. Know the signs and symptoms of heat illness, and limit
strenuous outdoor activities today! While early morning convection
upstream of our area may bring mid or high clouds into the area,
these unfortunately will not prevent compressional warming from the
downslope flow.
Additionally, the hot, breezy conditions combined with extremely dry
fuels and low afternoon RH (15-20%) will elevate our fire threat
today. A Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for areas west
of I-35 this afternoon, where RH will be lowest, temperatures
hottest, and skies clearest.
Precip chances remain below mentionable in the short term, although
silent (10%) PoPs have been added in Northeast TX due to the
possibility that the shortwave will bring isolated showers and
storms through that area Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
The upper ridge will begin to shift west on Tuesday, but the air
mass over North and Central Texas will remain quite hot.
Afternoon temperatures will again climb into the 100-109 range,
with the warmest temperatures across North Texas. Heat headlines
will once again be needed, however, given the lower temperatures
across Central Texas, the ongoing Excessive Heat Warning may be
converted to a Heat Advisory. This decision will be made later
today with the afternoon forecast package.
A more noticeable pattern adjustment arrives Wednesday as the
ridge axis settles farther west across the Desert Southwest. This
will place the Southern Plains within weak northerly flow aloft
and allow temperatures to back off a few degrees. Highs from
Wednesday through the weekend should generally range from the
upper 90s to 105 degrees.
The northerly flow pattern will also open the door for occasional
weak disturbances to move south into the region. Rain chances
will remain low and poorly timed, but isolated to scattered
showers and storms will be possible at times from midweek into the
weekend. Most areas will stay dry on any given day. Where storms
do develop, gusty outflow winds, lightning and brief heavy
rainfall will be the main concerns.
The prolonged stretch of hot and mostly dry weather will continue
to aggravate drought and fire weather concerns. Afternoon
humidity will remain low enough to support additional initial
attack fire starts, especially in areas that miss out on any
rainfall.
Late in the weekend into next Monday, guidance suggests the ridge
may attempt to expand east again. If this occurs, temperatures
would trend upward and rain chances would decrease once more
heading into the final week of August.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. A
weak low pressure system is slowly migrating eastward into western
Oklahoma; our proximity to this low and its associated pressure
gradient will keep winds sustained around 12-15KT today with
occasional gusts up to 20-25KT. The influence of this low will
likely override any effects of thermal eddies, which had caused
variable winds on Sunday afternoon.
Metroplex sites will have a very low (10-15%) chance to be clipped
by showers that may move through Northeast TX on Tuesday morning
(most likely 09-15Z) associated with a shortwave. Given the low
probability and continued disagreement in short-term ensemble
guidance on this scenario, we have opted not to include a precip
mention in the 24-30 hour period of the DFW TAF. No precipitation is
expected at KACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 108 84 105 83 / 0 10 10 0
Waco 106 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 104 78 103 77 / 10 10 10 10
Denton 109 82 106 79 / 10 10 10 0
McKinney 106 82 104 79 / 10 10 10 0
Dallas 108 83 106 82 / 0 10 10 0
Terrell 107 79 104 78 / 0 10 10 10
Corsicana 107 78 103 79 / 0 0 10 10
Temple 106 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 110 78 107 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Fenske/Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
