Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
621
FXUS64 KFWD 221048
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered light rain showers and patchy fog are expected through
this morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along and east of
I-35.
- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve
later this week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Widespread, dense stratus will remain overhead North and Central
Texas through the night and into Wednesday morning. Convective
rain showers have largely diminished as the main shortwave
continues its progression toward the SE CONUS and weak mid-level
ridging begins to build overhead. Warm-moist advection will remain
rather strong through tonight and into Wednesday across most of
the region. Areas of mist/patchy drizzle beneath this thick lower
deck of clouds will remain possible through at least late
Wednesday morning when clouds are expected to start scattering
out. We can`t rule out some areas of patchy to dense fog as well
later tonight into Wednesday morning, primarily in locations that
avoid light precipitation (latest high-res guidance favors a
corridor from Bell County up towards Erath County for reduced
visibilities.
Conditions will improve by midday Wednesday with most getting a
glimpse of the sun by early Wednesday afternoon as
clouds/fog/drizzle diminish in coverage. With increased
insolation and persistent southeasterly surface winds, expect
temperatures to rise into the 70s across most of our forecast area
Wednesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
potentially even a few thunderstorms may develop once again
along/east of I-35 in the deeper moisture. There may even be a few
hour window Wednesday afternoon and early evening for a strong
storm or two capable of producing gusty winds and small hail in
our far southern and Brazos Valley counties. Any lingering
convection will quickly dissipate after sunset Wednesday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
By Thursday, a dryline will sharpen over parts of northwest Texas
and the Big Country with sprawling surface dewpoints in the mid
60s in the warm sector over our forecast area. A 90-100 kt
jetstreak will be moving in from the west by Thursday afternoon
with the primary mid-level shortwave shifting across OK/KS.
Convective initiation is more likely to occur well north of our
forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening beneath better
synoptic-scale ascent. A very strong capping inversion will
likely inhibit thunderstorm development across North and Central
Texas, but we will carry 10%-15% PoPs generally northwest of the
Metroplex to account for the very low end potential of a storm or
two developing late in the evening off the dryline.
By Friday, zonal flow aloft with embedded shortwaves will dominate
the upper-level pattern over North and Central Texas. A weak
surface low is forecast to slide east along the Red River placing
a dryline somewhere in between the US-281 and I-35 corridors
Friday afternoon. Convergence near the center of the surface low
and circulations along the eastward-mixing dryline may provide
enough lift to initiate isolated to scattered thunderstorms late
Friday afternoon and evening. Strong instability and sufficient
deep layer shear will lead to a severe threat that looks to
maximize along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20 where capping
is expected to be weaker. This severe weather threat will
materialize again late Saturday as the dryline sets up west of
I-35. More specific locations details will be fine-tuned in the
coming days as we start to nail down the placement of these
mesoscale features.
By Sunday, troughing is expected to eject over the Central Plains
with embedded shortwaves in the southwesterly flow aloft
traversing over North and Central Texas. A broad warm sector will
likely set up once again late Sunday with high instability and
sufficient deep-layer shear leading to a severe weather threat
across much of the region. With this weekend still several days
away, expect the finer details of this potential active weather
period to be hashed out as we move through this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
IFR cigs currently overspread much of North and Central Texas with
intermittent LIFR cigs observed at KAFW and KFTW. Expect IFR cigs
to prevail through 17Z-18Z with VFR conditions returning by
20Z-21Z this afternoon. A batch of light to moderate rain showers
is currently pushing east of the Metroplex TAF sites. We will
keep a VCSH group going for the next hour, but any visibility
reductions after 12Z will likely come in the form of mist/drizzle
or patchy fog.
Later this afternoon and early evening, additional isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
primarily east of the terminals. Otherwise, expect SSE winds at
7-12kts through the TAF period with MVFR/IFR cigs returning
tonight generally after 06Z.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 66 81 68 / 20 0 10 10
Waco 77 66 81 68 / 20 0 0 10
Paris 74 63 80 67 / 30 10 10 20
Denton 75 64 80 66 / 20 10 10 10
McKinney 75 65 80 67 / 30 10 10 10
Dallas 77 67 82 69 / 20 0 10 10
Terrell 77 65 82 67 / 30 0 10 10
Corsicana 79 68 84 69 / 20 0 10 10
Temple 78 66 83 68 / 20 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 77 64 83 66 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
