Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
696
FXUS64 KFWD 070616
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1216 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front overnight
through Saturday. A few severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds are possible. Heavy rain may also cause localized
flooding.
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday
with an upper low and the next cold front. Some severe storms
will again be possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
A shortwave trough and Pacific cold front continue to produce
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Heartland tonight.
Activity remained isolated across North Texas through the evening,
due to both the presence of a persistent cap, and the fact that
the better synoptic scale ascent remained well north of the Red
River. We are not finished quite yet, however, as the shortwave
will actually expand southwestward overnight while slowly dropping
southeast through the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley,
pushing a cold front through the region during the day Saturday.
Scattered showers and storms will form in the vicinity of the
front, first developing across the northwest zones now through 3
AM, spreading east through North Texas Saturday morning into the
early afternoon hours, then Central Texas this afternoon and
evening.
The resulting positive tilt of the disturbance aloft is not ideal
for the development of severe weather, but good instability and
40-50kt of effective shear will still support a few severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds will both be possible near and south
of the front, with large hail being the primary threat north of
the front. Convection will eventually exit into East and
Southeast Texas Saturday night, leaving Sunday mostly dry and
pleasant with highs in the lower 70s. One exception may be in the
Brazos Valley where a few lingering ran showers may keep high
temperatures in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
The next system to watch will be a closed upper low which will
begin the period over Baja California. A lead shortwave will
bring a brief round of showers and isolated storms Sunday night
into Monday. Severe weather is unlikely with this initial round,
but steep mid level lapse rates and the resulting 500-1000 J/KG of
elevated CAPE will support small hail in a few storms.
The upper low will begin its eastward advancement on Monday,
accelerating across northwest Mexico Monday night and reaching
West Texas on Tuesday. A Pacific front/dryline hybrid will become
a surface focus for thunderstorm development across the Big
Country Tuesday afternoon. Storms will most likely develop upscale
into a QLCS while entering western portions of North and Central
Texas Tuesday evening as the upper low encroaches from the west.
The line of storms will push east across the region along with the
upper low Tuesday night, exiting into East Texas Wednesday
morning.
Fortunately, the latest guidance is much more consistent
regarding the timing of the system compared to this time
yesterday, so POPs will be concentrated on Tuesday night. Deep
layer shear and instability will support a damaging wind threat,
particularly with any bowing segment which may occur. There
should also be at least a low-end tornado and large hail threat,
though model soundings indicate a veer/back profile which may work
against these developments. Either way, locally heavy rain could
also produce flooding in some areas, particularly those recently
affected by heavy rain. We should know more about the severe/flood
threats in the coming days as higher resolution model guidance
arrives.
Low POPs will extend into Wednesday as the core of the upper low
moves overhead, with all activity exiting to our east and south
(along with another cold front) by Wednesday night. Dry and
pleasant weather will follow for the end of next week and
potentially into the following weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
Evening convection has shifted east and north of all TAF sites
over the past few hours, but new development is occurring off to
the northwest as a cold front approaches. Thunderstorms should
begin to impact northwest portions of D10 by 09Z, with VCTS
included at DFW area airports starting 11Z (TEMPO 13-15Z) `and
KACT 15Z. FROPA and a shift to north winds will occur 12-14Z in
the DFW Metroplex and 14-16Z at KACT. Convection should come to an
end around midday in the Metroplex, but may linger well into the
afternoon across Central Texas and KACT as the front slows. MVFR
is also in store today both ahead of and behind the front.
Conditions should improve to VFR in the Metroplex Saturday
afternoon, but may continue at KACT into Saturday evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across mainly Central Texas
this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 58 67 50 / 70 70 80 30
Waco 84 61 70 51 / 40 30 90 50
Paris 80 60 66 48 / 50 90 80 50
Denton 82 52 65 43 / 80 80 80 30
McKinney 81 58 66 48 / 60 70 80 40
Dallas 81 59 68 51 / 60 70 80 30
Terrell 83 61 71 49 / 50 70 90 50
Corsicana 84 66 75 54 / 40 50 90 60
Temple 84 65 74 52 / 40 30 80 60
Mineral Wells 80 52 63 44 / 70 80 80 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/MB
LONG TERM....30/MB
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
