Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
375
FXUS64 KFWD 211141
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy, sometimes dense, fog may impact this morning`s commute,
with visibilities dropping to less than 1 mile at times.
- Scattered showers and storms will continue to move through
portions of Central and East Texas this morning.
- Additional storm chances return Sunday into early next week,
which may lead to additional flooding.
- The middle and end of next week including Thanksgiving Day
looks cool and dry, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Patchy, sometimes dense fog, as well as low stratus has spread
across portions of the region this morning. Visibilities will
occasionally deteriorate down to near a mile at times, though
visibility in pockets of dense fog will likely drop down to a
quarter of a mile or less. Observation sites are generally
staying above Dense Fog Advisory criteria, and Texas DOT cameras
are only showing pockets of dense fog. Since any location that
reaches criteria remains localized at this time, have decided to
not issue an Advisory. This may change over the next few hours if
conditions deteriorate further. Nonetheless, make sure to take
caution during the morning commute, especially if you find
yourself in fog. Give yourself plenty of time to get to your
destination, and drive slowly!
Otherwise, the main morning updates to the forecast were to
refine PoPs for the rest of the morning, generally confining them
to Central and eastern North Texas. All rain should come to an end
this afternoon. The forecast discussion below remains valid.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
One last wave of sub-severe showers and storms will continue to
move across portions of Central and eastern North Texas through
the rest of this morning as an upper level disturbance rounds the
base of the parent shortwave trough (currently located over the
TX/OK Panhandles). With moisture still hanging around, patchy,
sometimes dense fog will be possible this morning, but will
likely not be widespread in coverage due to continued cloud cover
across much of the region and scattered showers continuing in
Central Texas. As the parent shortwave continues to swing out
towards the Midwest, the system`s dryline/Pacific front will sweep
across the region, bringing drier air and effectively ending rain
chances as we head into the weekend. Under clearing skies and
west-to-southwesterly winds, afternoon highs today will reach the
70s. Eventually, the system`s true cold front will move through
later this evening, shifting winds out of the north and bringing a
slight drop in temperatures for Saturday. Expect tomorrow to
feature morning lows in the 40s and 50s, with high temperatures in
the 60s to low 70s. The frontal passage itself will remain dry,
but may be accompanied by a few low clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Over the weekend and into early next week, another closed low
will swing from the southwestern CONUS up into the Plains. As the
low moves closer, a rapid increase in moisture advection will
occur, bringing a return to overcast skies by Sunday. A similar
pattern to the recent system over North and Central Texas is
expected, with a couple of minute disturbances ejecting out ahead
of the parent shortwave, leading to waves of showers and storms
starting on Sunday and continuing through Monday.
At this time, the exact severe threat remains uncertain as
instability within forecast soundings is lackluster, but deep
layer shear is a bit more impressive, so we will continue to keep
an eye on this potential as our short-term high-resolution models
begin to cover this period. More confidence can be placed on
another increased threat for heavy rain and flash flooding,
particularly for those areas that were hard hit by this last
round of precipitation. Latest ensemble and cluster guidance
continues to show most likely precipitation totals from Sunday to
Monday between 1-2.5", with isolated higher amounts up to 4".
Uncertainty in rainfall totals and locations comes into play as
guidance remains undecided on whether or not a surface low will
develop near our area, which would influence rain amounts even
further. All in all, the above totals may still change and be
refined even further in the next couple of days as more guidance
comes in.
The parent shortwave will eject into the Midwest as we head into
Tuesday, ending rain chances. Going towards midweek, the longwave
trough that has been in residence over the western CONUS will
finally move east thanks to a stout upper low in the northern tier
of states, and will shunt a strong cold front south. Currently,
the Thanksgiving holiday is looking a bit chilly in the 50s and
60s, but dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
D10: Dismal flying conditions have overspread the D10 airports,
with cigs and visibilities bouncing between IFR and LIFR through
mid-morning. Winds will gradually shift more westerly throughout
the day as conditions improve back to VFR late this morning
(~16Z). A cold front will move through later today, with winds
gradually veering out of the northwest after 01Z tonight. VFR is
expected to persist through the rest of the period, but low clouds
may return tomorrow morning.
ACT: Scattered showers continue to move across ACT this morning,
and will continue on and off through mid morning (~15Z). Over the
next hour or two, expect ceilings to drop to MVFR as the low level
stratus starts to fill in. This could be pushed a bit later in
the morning if the stratus deck remains patchy enough. Confidence
in IFR cigs has decreased, so have kept prevailing MVFR through
the morning before cigs lift back to VFR this afternoon. Winds
will gradually veer from south to west today, and will eventually
shift out of the northwest after 03Z tonight with the passage of a
cold front. Expect VFR and northwest winds through the rest of
the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 51 68 51 / 10 0 0 10
Waco 77 52 70 51 / 40 0 0 10
Paris 76 50 67 47 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 76 46 67 45 / 10 0 0 10
McKinney 77 48 66 47 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 77 52 68 51 / 10 0 0 10
Terrell 77 51 68 49 / 30 0 0 10
Corsicana 79 54 70 52 / 50 0 0 10
Temple 79 51 72 51 / 60 0 10 10
Mineral Wells 79 46 71 47 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
