Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
531
FXUS64 KFWD 051048
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms will occur today through Sunday
with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours each day.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy
rainfall can be expected with the strongest storms.
- Warmer and predominantly rain-free weather will return for most
of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
A slow-moving upper low and increasing moisture content will
contribute to active weather heading into the weekend with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the area today
and Saturday.
Rich Gulf moisture continues to arrive within southeasterly low-
level flow ahead of an upper low presently centered over
Chihuahua, Mexico. As this low steadily ejects northeastward
during the next 36 hours, its attendant ascent will contribute to
scattered convective activity across much of the region, with
coverage maximized during peak heating due to aid from diurnal
destabilization. The potential for severe weather is rather low
both today and Saturday, but a few robust updrafts could certainly
produce gusty outflow winds and small hail. The overall
microburst potential will be mitigated by near/below normal
temperatures and lower cloud bases, while hail potential will be
reduced due to a single cell or multicellular storm mode with
rotating updrafts being rather unlikely. Locally heavy rainfall
and localized flooding will be of concern as PW values approach
2" at times, and this would be most likely with any cell training
that may be able to occur. Even though convective coverage will
be maximized during late afternoon and evening, the synoptic scale
forcing present will allow for isolated convective activity to be
sustained even during the overnight and early morning hours. This
will especially be true on Saturday as the upper low center and
strongest height falls move directly overhead. Those with outdoor
events this weekend will certainly want to keep an eye on the
radar and have an alternate plan available. Otherwise, the
abundance of cloud cover through the short term forecast period
will aid in holding high temperatures mostly in the mid 80s both
today and Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The slow-moving upper low will be centered over Northwest Texas
heading into Sunday, and this will serve as one final opportunity
for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning and
afternoon as the last vestiges of its ascent impinge on the CWA.
Activity is largely expected to end Sunday evening as the upper
trough axis fully vacates the area to the northeast. In its wake,
stout subsidence and mid-level height rises will overspread the
area heading into early next week, and this will lead to a warmup
to more summerlike temperatures while bringing an end to
mentionable rain chances. Highs are forecast to return to
near/above normal on Monday, and will mostly be in the mid and
upper 90s through the entirety of next week as a 590+ dam ridge
builds overhead. This could also be our first bout of 100+ degree
heat index values this summer, and so messaging will begin to
pivot from thunderstorm hazards to heat hazards through the
extended portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Low cigs at MVFR heights remain anchored across the Metroplex this
morning while IFR prevails at Waco. A brief window of IFR cigs is
still possible at Metroplex airports through 14-15z, and will
retain a Tempo group to advertise this potential. Warm advection
is also contributing to a rapid uptick in showery activity as of
1030z, especially across eastern Metroplex airports, and VCSH
will be included to begin the TAF period. Following a scattering
to VFR later this morning, showers and thunderstorms will increase
further as an upper low advances towards North Texas. Convective
coverage will be scattered at 30-50%, and will maintain short
VCSH/VCTS periods through the afternoon and early evening hours
when this potential should be at its peak. Some precipitation
could be maintained into tonight and early Saturday morning as
lift from the low continues to spread overhead, and a return to
MVFR/IFR cigs is likely between 06-12z Saturday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 72 85 72 / 40 50 70 70
Waco 85 71 84 72 / 50 50 60 60
Paris 83 71 82 71 / 50 30 70 80
Denton 86 71 84 71 / 30 50 70 70
McKinney 84 71 83 72 / 40 40 70 80
Dallas 88 73 86 73 / 40 50 70 70
Terrell 85 71 84 71 / 50 40 70 70
Corsicana 87 73 86 74 / 50 40 70 50
Temple 85 71 85 73 / 50 50 60 50
Mineral Wells 85 69 84 69 / 40 50 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
