Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
146
FXUS64 KFWD 231817
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
117 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for North
Texas, mainly near the Red River, late this afternoon and
tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the main
concerns.
- Dry weather with seasonably hot and humid conditions will
continue through the rest of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Radar imagery early this morning shows scattered storms have
developed along the remnant outflow boundary from last night`s
MCS. This activity is expected to remain near the Red River
and stay north and northeast of the Metroplex this morning before
activity dissipated by afternoon. A few of these storms could get
intense at times given the ample MUCAPE of 4065 J/Kg and steep
mid level lapse rates of 8.4 C/km on the 00Z FWD sounding, with
strong winds and small hail possible. The very high PWAT near 2
inches on the evening balloon sounding also indicates heavy rain
and localized flooding will be possible where storms repeatedly
move over the same locations. Current radar trends suggest Fannin
and Lamar Counties would be the most likely impacted with heavy
rain or flood issues this morning.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area including the Metroplex
is anticipated to stay dry today with another hot and humid day
on tap thanks to highs well into the 90s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s/70s. Guidance shows more dry air aloft today versus
yesterday which should allow dewpoints to mix down some during
the afternoon. Therefore peak heat indices should stay mainly in
the 100-105 range, although a few locations could see slightly
higher values similar to yesterday. Since conditions look to be
borderline, will hold off on a heat advisory for now.
Additional widely scattered showers and storms are possible near
the Red River again Tuesday night as an H5 shortwave trough moves
overhead, but CAMs are not currently enthusiastic about this
potential. Will keep pops on the lower side for now.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Rest of the week into the weekend appears dry, hot and humid as
the H5 ridge currently centered near El Paso builds eastward
across the state. This will effectively shut off our rain chances
as the upper level westerlies shift well north of us. Although
the upper ridge will not be notably strong, subsidence beneath it
will still allow us to gradually heat up each day with highs
rising through the upper 90s late week to near 100 over the
weekend. Despite dry air aloft allowing dewpoints to mix out each
afternoon, the hotter afternoon high temperatures may necessitate
heat advisories for parts of North and Central Texas this
upcoming weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
A warm, moist and seasonably unstable airmass across North Central
Texas will promote an expansive scattered to broken VFR cumulus
field through 00z. Instability will be sufficient to maintain
scattered showers from D10 northward to the Red River through the
heat of the afternoon. Some of the convection may evolve enough
to result in some limited thunderstorms, mainly over the northern
portions of D10 where mixed layer instability is a bit more
enhanced. Any convection this afternoon should dissipate by around
00-01z.
HREF cloud forecasts are somewhat less bullish on the redevelopment
of MVFR conditions at the DFW TAF sites Wednesday morning, and
have opted to maintain SCT015 conditions at these locations from
around 11z to 15z. That said, some MVFR ceilings are certainly not
out of the question tomorrow morning, as has been the case for the
previous mornings. Farther south, did keep MVFR cigs at Waco from
10z to 16z Wednesday, mixing upward to VFR cigs after 16z.
Biggest variable in the current forecast cycle concerns the
potential for another round of organized convection to drop
southeastward out of Oklahoma, along the quasi-stationary front, into
North Texas. This could potentially occur either this evening or closer
to daybreak Wednesday. Unfortunately, short-term CAM solutions
display considerable variability in the location, timing and
coverage of any activity dropping south of the Red River. Believe
any convection that would survive the journey into North Texas
should remain mostly north and northeast of D10 overnight or
tomorrow morning. The uncertainty of any impacts affecting the
the DFW TAF sites is great enough at this point to warrant
omitting any mention of TSRA at this point. This will be a key
issue to monitor closely for forthcoming TAF issuances,
obviously.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 97 77 97 / 20 10 0 0
Waco 76 94 74 94 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 74 91 74 91 / 20 30 10 0
Denton 77 95 77 96 / 20 20 0 0
McKinney 77 94 77 94 / 20 20 0 0
Dallas 79 97 77 97 / 20 20 0 0
Terrell 77 95 75 95 / 20 20 0 0
Corsicana 76 96 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 75 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 97 75 97 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
