Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
160
FXUS64 KFWD 300021
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
721 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures between 97 to 104 with little to no rain are
expected this weekend through next week.
- The fire threat will remain elevated through next week due to
hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Current RAP analysis places the mid/upper-level ridge over
western New Mexico, with the ridge axis continuing to translate
east toward the Southern Plains through Sunday. By Sunday
afternoon, the center of the ridge should be positioned near
Oklahoma, placing North and Central Texas beneath increasingly
strong subsidence and reinforcing the hot and predominantly dry
pattern. One exception may be across southern and eastern Central
Texas this afternoon, where lingering low-level moisture and
strong heating should support modest instability along the
northwestern edge of the more favorable moisture plume. If a weak
convergence axis or subtle moisture discontinuity can develop, an
isolated shower may briefly form, though probabilities remain
around 10% or less and most locations will remain dry.
Otherwise, efficient daytime mixing will again be the main
forecast challenge. Observations continue to show afternoon
dewpoints mixing lower than the NBM, with drier air entrained into
the boundary layer while increasingly dry soils limit evaporative
cooling. This favors more efficient, sensible heating and allows
the mixed layer to tap into the warmer air aloft, resulting in a
forecast that is hotter but less humid than the unmodified blend.
Temperatures should reach the lower 100s across much of North
Texas, with a few locations in the Metroplex and Big Country
approaching 103-104 degrees. Despite the heat, lower afternoon
dewpoints will keep apparent temperatures fairly close to the
ambient temperature through Sunday, precluding the need for heat
headlines this weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
The subtropical ridge will remain the dominant influence through
next week as its axis gradually shifts east toward the Mississippi
Valley and Southeast. Persistent subsidence, a warm tropospheric
column, and efficient boundary-layer mixing will maintain above-
normal temperatures and predominantly dry weather across North and
Central Texas. Confidence in the heat is high, with regional
deterministic and ensemble guidance showing little indication of a
meaningful pattern change through the first week of September.
Southerly flow should gradually improve low-level moisture early
next week, which may allow heat indices to begin approaching
advisory criteria even if actual temperatures change little.
Farther south and east, the eastward migration of the ridge will
eventually allow Gulf moisture and weak easterly disturbances to
move farther inland, but any associated convection should remain
south and southeast of the forecast area for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
VFR and southerly flow should prevail through the period at all
TAF sites. Diurnal veering of the winds to southwesterly
overnight then back to southeasterly tomorrow afternoon should
occur. A few sporadic gusts of 15 to 20 kts are expected tonight
through early tomorrow afternoon, however impacts to air space
operations are not expected due to the gust spread remaining AOB
10 kts. Skies will clear tonight, with cumulus humilis returning
tomorrow afternoon as thermals breach their LCLs.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 74 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 77 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 102 81 102 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Bonnette/Dornsife
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
