Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
994
FXUS64 KFWD 041033
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms will spread south through North
and Central Texas today associated with a cold front. Locally
heavy rain and isolated areas of flooding will be the primary
concern.
- A few days of near or below normal temperatures can be expected
behind the front from Easter Sunday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026
Showers and storms associated with an upper trough moving through
the Plains have remained largely north of the Red River this
evening, though occasional storms with gusty winds and hail have
impacted northwest counties over the past several hours. Activity
should remain fairly isolated over the next couple of hours,
followed by a rapid increase of convection during the pre-dawn
hours as a cold front enters from the northwest. The front and
associated line of showers and storms (which can be seen on RADAR
over Northwest Texas and Oklahoma) should begin impacting
Gainesville, Bowie, Graham and surrounding areas 2 to 4 am. A
threat for quarter sized hail and damaging wind gusts will be
highest across those initial areas as the low level jet
strengthens. Storms should fairly quickly become elevated in
nature and sub-severe as the front pushes farther south, but
localized flooding will remain a possibility with the post-frontal
convection.
The severe threat should decrease as convection moves into the
I-20 corridor around daybreak and low level winds veer, but
training thunderstorms may create some morning flooding concerns,
particularly in the urban areas of the Metroplex. A slow and
steady southward progression of the front will continue through
the day, bringing good rain chances area-wide. The environment
will be less favorable for severe weather across Central Texas as
the main trough becomes more displaced to the northeast, but will
still need to monitor rainfall totals with any training storms
which may occur. All activity will exit into Southeast Texas late
in the afternoon or early evening, followed by much cooler and
drier air. Temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s Saturday
night under clearing skies, but conditions should be dry in time
for Easter morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026
A nice Easter Sunday is in store following Saturday`s cold front,
with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs around 70. The early
part of the week will continue to be rather nice, with seasonably
cool temperatures, as an upper ridge builds across the central
part of the CONUS. A weak shortwave will pass overhead on Tuesday,
which may bring a quick round of convection, though a lack of
moisture return should keep any potential thunderstorms isolated
in nature. A dry Wednesday will follow, as ridging again develops
overhead.
Another unsettled period is expected during the latter part of
next week as an upper low deepens over Southern California and
slowly advances east. A lead shortwave will bring the initial
round of convection Thursday night into early Friday. Consecutive
evenings of dryline-focused convection will then follow Friday
through next weekend. The severe threat is still unclear at this
juncture, but being the middle part of April, it is a good bet
that at least some severe threat will exist.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026
A line of storms associated with a cold front will continue to impact
the DFW area TAF sites for a few more hours this morning before
shifting south and east of the Metroplex. The strongest convection
will be now through about 14Z, with rain showers and isolated
storms lingering until 16Z. The wind shift associated with the
front is currently reaching KAFW and will occur across the rest
of the DFW area through 12Z, so will begin the 12Z TAFs with
gusty north winds. Storms should affect KACT during the 14-18Z
time frame as the front continues south through Central Texas.
A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings will persist for several hours
behind the front, eventually ending in the Metroplex 18-20Z and at
KACT 21-23Z. VFR and continued north winds can be expected tonight
through Easter Sunday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026
Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 50 71 51 / 100 0 0 0
Waco 71 50 68 49 / 90 10 0 0
Paris 68 45 70 45 / 100 0 0 0
Denton 67 45 70 44 / 90 0 0 0
McKinney 67 47 70 47 / 100 0 0 0
Dallas 70 51 72 51 / 100 0 0 0
Terrell 69 48 70 47 / 100 10 0 0
Corsicana 73 50 71 50 / 100 10 0 0
Temple 71 50 69 49 / 90 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 69 45 70 45 / 90 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
