Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
982
FXUS64 KFWD 141131
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Today will be much colder and breezy with highs in the upper
30s and 40s and wind chills in the 20s and 30s.
- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region for most
of the upcoming workweek with minimal rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Strong cold advection is underway following the passage of an
Arctic cold front yesterday evening, with gusty north winds
continuing through this morning. Some patchy light rain and
drizzle may also be observed across portions of Central Texas
through sunrise until the arrival of drier air shuts down any
precipitation potential. A combination of 20/30 degree
temperatures and sustained winds of 15-20 mph will yield
widespread windchills in the teens and 20s to begin the morning,
with wind speeds gradually declining through the daytime. Post-
frontal stratus will also linger into the morning before
undergoing a north-south clearing trend. With lighter winds and
clearing skies by nightfall, Monday morning`s lows should be some
of the coldest of the season so far in the presence of optimal
radiational cooling conditions.
Low-level flow will already return to southeasterly on Monday
morning in advance of a slow-moving mid-level disturbance to our
west, and this will send a swath of 925-850mb moisture
northward into the forecast area during the daytime. With the cP
airmass still entrenched at the surface, the residual frontal
inversion should easily saturate and yield a widespread swath of
low stratus with broken/overcast skies prevailing during a
majority of the day. As a result, have lowered Monday afternoon`s
highs by several degrees from previous forecasts, with many areas
likely struggling to surpass the mid or upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
Moisture return will continue both Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of
the slow-moving early week disturbance. Daily morning stratus
intrusions should be the result, and moisture should finally
deepen to levels suitable for showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm by Tuesday night and Wednesday across our far
southeastern zones. At this time, these are the only rain chances
through the extended forecast period. The warm advection regime
will also result in a quick warming trend with highs climbing well
above average by Wednesday, and readings in the 70s should be
commonplace. A more pronounced Central Plains trough will deepen
and rapidly transit the CONUS during the second half of the week,
and this trough`s attendant cold front will be pulled through
North and Central Texas late Thursday or early Friday. This front
should consist of much more mild air than this weekend`s frontal
passage, and it will only serve to knock temperatures back to
near seasonal normals during the late week period before another
quick warmup ensues.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
Post-frontal MVFR stratus continues to linger across D10 TAF
sites as of 1130z, with intermittent cigs near 2 kft. Conditions
should improve within the next 2-3 hours as the back edge of this
cloud deck shifts southward, with skies becoming mostly clear
later this morning. For Waco, stratus will linger well into the
day, with clearing not occurring until mid-afternoon. Northerly
winds will remain gusty through most of the day before speeds
lessen late this afternoon and evening. Southeasterly low-level
flow will resume overnight, and this will send a swath of low
stratus back into the area between 15-18z on Monday. These cigs
have been introduced for the extended DFW TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 41 28 48 41 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 45 26 50 42 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 42 22 47 36 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 40 24 48 38 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 41 24 46 39 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 43 29 49 42 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 44 24 47 39 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 46 27 50 42 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 44 27 50 40 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 41 26 52 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
