Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
185
FXUS64 KFWD 252321
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Outside of isolated showers and storms near the Red River Monday
morning; hot, dry and humid conditions will persist into early
next week.
- Windy conditions are expected this weekend into Monday, with
gusts between 30-35 mph likely each day. An isolated gust up to
40 mph is not out of the question.
- Afternoon heat index values could reach or exceed 105 degrees at
times this weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
A shortwave disturbance is currently spreading across North
Texas, and was the culprit behind our earlier morning showers and
storms in the northwestern counties. As this disturbance continues
east, isolated showers and perhaps an isolated storm will remain
possible generally near and north of US-380 this afternoon.
Otherwise, resultant cloud cover from the disturbance will also
spread east mainly across North Texas. This cloud cover will give
a temporary respite to better daytime heating, but clearing behind
the deck will allow temperatures to peak in the low to mid 90s
over the next several hours. Higher humidity will make it feel
hotter, with peak heat indices ranging from the mid 90s to around
102 degrees. Make sure to drink plenty of water and stay cool
today!
Overnight, another disturbance looks to transit around the apex
of the upper ridge just to our west. Similar to this morning,
isolated showers and perhaps a storm will spread from west to east
into portions of North Texas tomorrow morning into the afternoon.
Exact coverage is uncertain, so have kept PoPs between 10-15% for
now. Otherwise, expect another hot and muggy day as the upper
level ridge begins to spread eastward across the Southern Plains,
effectively ending additional rain chances. Afternoon highs will
continue to peak into the 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s
to around 104. Deepening lee cyclogenesis to our northwest will
result in a tightened pressure gradient tomorrow. This will
increase wind speeds and gusts across much of the region. Expect
sustained speeds between 15-20 mph, with gusts up to around 20-30
mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Hot, humid, and dry conditions are expected to prevail through
this weekend and into early next week as North and Central Texas
remain underneath the influence of the upper-level ridge spanning
across the Southern Plains. Heat will become the main forecast
concern, with weekend highs in the 90s warming into the mid 90s to
around 102 by early next week. While heat indices will likely
approach or even exceed our Heat Advisory criteria in spots,
continued elevated winds may aid in making things feel slightly
"cooler." Expect sustained speeds between 15-25 mph with gusts
generally between 30-40 mph Saturday through Monday. The majority
of these winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, with
only isolated spots reaching or exceeding the 25 mph 2-hour
average. There is still some uncertainty on any weekend Heat
Advisories at this time due to the winds, but it is looking
increasingly likely that we may need one going into next week when
temperatures rise closer to 102-103 in some areas. Make sure to
stay cool and hydrated, especially if participating in any outdoor
activities!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Sprinkles/virga associated with a weak disturbance aloft has
exited to the southeast, while convection associated with a
stronger disturbance will approach from the northwest later this
evening. These storms will encounter stronger subsidence
(associated with mid level ridge) the farther south and east they
get, and are expected to dissipate near the Red River overnight.
Additional mid level cloud cover and virga associated with the
dissipating convection will move through late tonight/Friday
morning, but little to no impacts are expected.
A swath of low clouds will develop overnight across Central Texas,
which will temporarily produce MVFR cigs at Waco Friday morning.
At this time it looks like these lower clouds will remain south of
the DFW Metroplex. Gusty south winds and VFR will otherwise
prevail area-wide through Friday night.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 96 78 98 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 75 94 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 75 91 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 77 95 78 97 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 76 95 77 95 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 77 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 96 77 98 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
