Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
656
FXUS64 KFWD 131100
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will occur today with highs in the 90s
and peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) will
return to the area Sunday into Monday. Gusty winds and brief
heavy rainfall will be the main threats.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Minor adjustments were made to this morning`s probability of
precipitation as an outflow boundary continues to progress
southeast out of western Oklahoma. Although a few storms currently
accompany the outflow boundary, the expectation is for storms to
gradually dissipate in the coming hours. A mention of showers and
isolated storms was added generally along the immediate Red River
west of Gainesville to account for an isolated shower or storm
that may impact that area this morning. The rest of the forecast
remains unchanged.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Mid-level riding will be in control across North and Central
Texas today with hot and precipitation-free conditions expected
across the region. Afternoon temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to around 104
degrees. A few heat index readings may reach the 105-106 range,
however, those will remain fairly isolated in nature. If you plan
on spending time outdoors today -- make sure to stay hydrated and
seek shade if possible.
The mid-level ridge will begin to break down as we head into
tomorrow evening/night as a shortwave traverses from northern NM
into the Texas Panhandle. This shortwave will induce a cluster of
storms that will develop well to our north and likely send an
outflow boundary southward towards our region. There is still some
question as to whether the outflow boundary will reach North
Texas, however, if it does, it would be sometime between 2 to 7
am. With a strengthening low-level jet in place, localized
convergence will promote a few showers and thunderstorms. The
latest guidance keeps the bulk of the precipitation north of the
Red River prior to sunrise Sunday, however, a few showers and
storms cannot be ruled out across the Texoma region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
A more active weather day is expected across the region Sunday as
outflow boundaries from Oklahoma surge southward into North
Texas. In addition to the outflows, a cold front will be sliding
south in response to a passing shortwave. The combination of the
outflow boundaries and cold front will lead to scattered
thunderstorm activity, especially in the afternoon. Exact location
of thunderstorm activity remains uncertain given the dependency
on the placement of the outflow boundaries, however, the latest
guidance places the surface boundary near the I-20 corridor as
daytime heating reaches its maximum. With CIN eroding through the
day, sufficient instability will be in place for at least a few
strong storms near the I-20 corridor. Forecast thermodynamic
profiles suggest low-level dry air will be in place, increasing
the potential for strong downburst winds.
The front will likely stall somewhere south of the I-20 corridor
late Sunday before it slowly meanders to the north Sunday night
into Monday morning. Another shortwave will be moving over North
Texas on Monday with height falls taking place across the region.
With the front still atop North & Central Texas, forcing for
ascent will increase with another round of showers and storms
moving across the region. With most of the precipitation occurring
north of the front on Monday, the overall severe weather threat
will remain low.
Rain chances will gradually shift south on Tuesday as an
amplifying trough to our east drives slightly drier air into our
region. Temperatures by the middle of the week will be in the mid
to upper 90s, with a few triple digit readings expected near
Graham to Breckenridge to Comanche. The dry air will be rather
short-lived as lee cyclogenesis induces southerly flow by the
middle of the week. This will lead to Gulf moisture once again
returning to the region with rain chances returning by next
weekend. The increasing moisture will slightly reduce afternoon
temperatures, however, given higher moisture content, heat index
values will rise into the triple digits.
Beyond next weekend, model consensus leans towards a continuation
of above normal temperatures through the rest of the month as
mid-level ridging strengthens across the Southern and Central
Plains. Rain chances will likely become more limited, however,
this will continue to be assessed through the next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
VFR conditions and southerly winds are ongoing across North and
Central Texas at this time. For D10 -- expect continued VFR
conditions through the rest of today with winds gradually picking
up this afternoon. For Waco, periodic MVFR ceilings will be
possible this morning with a return to VFR by this afternoon.
Looking ahead, MVFR probabilities increase Sunday morning as
outflow boundaries approach the D10 airspace. Additionally, rain
chances will return to the forecast late Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon, leading to increased impacts to North Texas TAF
sites. Additional details to come in subsequent TAFs.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 79 90 69 / 0 10 50 80
Waco 93 77 92 72 / 0 0 40 90
Paris 91 76 84 67 / 0 30 70 80
Denton 94 78 87 66 / 10 20 60 80
McKinney 93 78 87 67 / 10 20 60 80
Dallas 97 80 92 70 / 0 10 50 90
Terrell 94 77 91 69 / 0 0 60 90
Corsicana 96 77 95 72 / 0 0 40 90
Temple 93 76 93 72 / 0 0 40 90
Mineral Wells 95 76 89 66 / 0 10 70 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
