Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
367
FXUS64 KFWD 141055
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
Texas this afternoon.
- Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming work
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
IR satellite imagery presents with clear skies across North Central
Texas tonight as the axis of the 594dam H5 subtropical ridge resides
over the South-Central CONUS. Associated synoptic subsidence and a
lack of any mesoscale surface features will maintain mostly clear
skies and dry conditions across most of the area for the day on
Monday. Low-level flow trajectories will take on more of a
southwesterly component throughout the day as an intense surface
cyclone progresses ENE across the Northern Plains. Surface troughing
will extend through the Lee of the Rockies, resulting in a
tightening of the pressure gradient that increases with northwestern
extent through the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Winds up to 20mph
will aid strong diurnal mixing to bring dewpoint values down into
the lower 60s west of the I-35 corridor; despite the continued above
-average highs in the lower 100s, heat indices will remain near
ambient air temperatures thus negating the need for any formal heat
products. That being said, the slightly stronger winds and reduced
RH values to around 30% will lead to heightened fire weather
concerns especially out towards the Big Country. The Heat Advisory
was extended through 8pm for locations east of I-35, where richer
boundary layer moisture will reside and heat indices of up to 107
can be expected.
A few of the CAMs initiate isolated thundershowers this afternoon
across Central Texas where sporadic instances of convective
temperature breaching appear possible, perhaps in addition to subtle
surface confluence as the winds respond to the overall pressure
field. Any thundershowers that do manage to develop will remain
short-lived.
While the global models depict an eastward translation of the ridge
axis through the first half of the work week, simultaneous
strengthening maintains similar heights across the region as have
been present over the past few days. High temperatures near or
above 100 degrees appear probable through Wednesday, with mostly
clear skies and southerly winds of 10-15mph.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
An anomalously strong upper level ridge centered over the Mid South
and sprawling westward into the Southern Plains will remain in place
Thursday through the weekend. This will result in continued hot and
dry weather with little relief expected through the weekend. Model
guidance does show a plume of deeper moisture spreading westward
across the Gulf and into South Texas during the day Thursday and
while large scale forcing for ascent should be negligible, there is
a signal for an increase in afternoon showers/storms across parts of
Central TX associated with this feature. We`ll have some 20% PoPs to
account for this. Otherwise, the signal for an approaching frontal
boundary late week has diminished in the global guidance with the
upper trough over the western CONUS much slower in its eastward
progression. This allows ridging to remain in place for a few days
longer, but amplification of the western U.S. trough does eventually
become likely headed into next week. This should be accompanied by a
decrease in temperatures and at least low periodic rain chances.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
KACT: Ragged low clouds continue to develop around 1,500 ft
across the Hill Country as of 1030Z. Cloud-level flow of 190 per
the KGRK VAD has taken them east into Limestone County thus far,
though brief periods of MVFR cannot be completely ruled out
through sunrise.
Concerning both the D10 and ACT terminals for Monday, the latest
high-res guidance has been consistently coming in a little more
aggressive with isolated thundershowers developing around peak
heating. Given their spotty nature, confidence is not high enough
to include in the TAFs at this time.
Southerly winds of 8-14 kts may gust to 20 kts at times, however
spreads remain below thresholds for operational significance.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 100 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 100 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 99 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 100 81 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 76 100 76 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 100 75 100 75 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 101 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
