Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
716
FXUS64 KFWD 071040
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas. Localized
heavy rain and flash flooding are likely overnight into Sunday.
- In addition to the flooding potential, a few strong storms
capable of gusty winds and hail are possible through the early
morning hours.
- Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the
upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees
each afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
Potentially significant flash flooding remains the primary
concern through the next ~12 hours as a slow-moving upper low and
near record PW values combine to support very heavy rainfall.
Overnight satellite imagery depicts a strong upper low over the TX
Panhandle and western Oklahoma which continues to eject
northeastward. It`s strong ascent is interacting with anomalous
Gulf moisture with PW values near or exceeding 2", and the
resultant widespread convective activity with tropical-like
thermal profiles is capable of very heavy rainfall on the order of
2-3" per hour. Flooding issues will be exacerbated by slow storm
motions and the tendency for cells to train in a SW-NE fashion.
While there is still some uncertainty as to where the epicenter of
the rainfall maximum and flooding impacts will be, recent high-
res guidance including HREF PMM QPF has been targeting locations
roughly along and just south of the I-20 corridor and near/west of
I-35 through early this morning. Areas in this vicinity should
have the highest potential to experience the localized totals of
6-8" that have been advertised in the ongoing Flood Watch.
The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur overnight through
sunrise, but additional new development is still possible mainly
north of I-20 through the morning as the upper low continues to
peel away to the northeast. This could support more localized
flooding in parts of North Texas even into the early afternoon
hours before all activity eventually vacates the area later in
the day. There will be some clearing of cloud cover that occurs
this afternoon while temperatures rebound to around 90 degrees. A
tranquil overnight period will follow with lows mostly in the mid
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
Following the departure of the upper low, ridging aloft will build
in to begin the week. This will lead to a return of above normal
temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions for the following few
days. However, there is a slim chance for seabreeze convection to
encroach on our southeastern zones on Monday afternoon where
small PoPs will be indicated in the public forecast. High
temperatures in the mid 90s will combine with upper 60s and lower
70s dewpoints to yield heat index values around or exceeding 100F
each afternoon, and this will likely be the first extended stretch
of 100+ heat index values for many locations so far this summer.
During the second half of the week, global guidance continues to
indicate the potential for a weak frontal boundary to sag
southward into the Southern Plains. This could result in a couple
rounds of convection possibly just to our north which may spread
into parts of North Texas via outflows on either Thursday or
Friday, and the forecast will indicate PoPs of 20-30% for this
scenario. The presence of some cloud cover and occasional
afternoon precipitation may be able to reduce highs back to
around 90 or even into the upper 80s for a day or two heading
towards next weekend depending on exactly how this scenario
unfolds.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
A couple isolated storms remain in the vicinity of the Metroplex
airports as of 1030z but are quickly waning in intensity. Overall,
a lull in convection near the TAF sites is expected for the next
coupe of hours before additional activity tied directly to the
core of the upper low traverses parts of North Texas from mid
morning through early afternoon. This will likely serve as the
final opportunity for convection near the TAF sites, mainly
between 14-18z, before all activity shifts east of the terminals
this afternoon. It`s possible that much of this activity may even
stay north of the airports and only briefly cause impacts directly
at the terminals. VFR and gradually clearing skies will prevail
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening before a swath
of MVFR stratus races northward around 06z tonight within breezy
southerly flow. Several hours of MVFR stratus can be expected
through Monday morning as a result.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 76 92 76 / 50 10 0 0
Waco 91 77 91 75 / 10 0 10 0
Paris 86 74 90 75 / 60 10 0 0
Denton 90 76 91 76 / 60 10 0 0
McKinney 88 76 91 77 / 60 10 0 0
Dallas 90 77 92 77 / 50 10 0 0
Terrell 88 76 91 75 / 50 10 0 0
Corsicana 89 76 92 75 / 20 0 0 0
Temple 90 76 91 74 / 10 0 10 0
Mineral Wells 91 75 92 74 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
