Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
736
FXUS64 KFWD 142244
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through this
evening with hot and dry weather expected into next week.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Radar shows a few showers and thunderstorms have spread
northwestward into our far southern counties this afternoon
along/ahead of the daily Gulf seabreeze activity. This convection
will remain quite sparse in coverage, however, so will keep pops
at 10 percent or less but extend them further northwest to a
Copperas Cove to Waco to Athens line. No other changes made to
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Hot and dry weather will continue into this weekend with little
chance for rainfall and a continued threat for grass fires. The
rest of today will feature mostly sunny skies and temperatures
climbing to near 100 degrees with breezy southerly winds. These
winds will relax some later tonight into Saturday as the pressure
gradient across the Southern Plains relaxes a bit.
Otherwise, mid level ridging will continue to build across the
southern Plains through Saturday with highs again expected to top
100 degrees in many locations. Even with deep vertical mixing
occurring, dewpoints will likely still remain elevated enough to
warrant additional heat advisories into the weekend.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Little change in the forecast is expected through next week with a
598 dm ridge axis centered directly over North Texas by Sunday
supporting an increase in high temperatures. This ridge will
remain parked over the Southern Plains through next week keeping
large scale subsidence in place and rain chances near zero. Highs
will likely top 105 degrees in some locations by Monday and
Tuesday requiring additional heat headlines. Along with the hot
and dry weather will be a continued threat for grass fire starts
across the region through next week. Despite slightly lower wind
speeds, a prolonged period of hot and dry weather is supporting a
notable drop in live fuel moisture. These conditions will favor an
active period of grass fire activity with little relief in site
over the next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
VFR conditions are expected again this TAF period with just a
few/sct low level clouds and cirrus along with south winds around
15 knots. Isolated SHRA/TSRA have developed southeast of ACT, but
activity looks to stay well east of the airport and no impacts
are anticipated. Overnight, MVFR cigs will again make a run for
ACT and southeast D10 in the 10-15Z timeframe. HREF low cig
probabilities are very low at D10 airports and will not include
any mention there. Probs for MVFR cigs are higher at ACT but only
for a brief time similar to this morning, so will keep mention at
just scattered at 1.5k ft.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 102 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 101 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 78 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 79 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 101 81 103 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 100 75 100 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 76 100 73 100 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
