Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
813
FXUS64 KFWD 282231
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8PM Wednesday across
much of North and Central Texas where heat index readings could
reach up to 109.
- Hot and rain-free weather will persist through the work week
with little relief in sight, and additional Heat Advisories or
possibly Extreme Heat Warnings may be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
No significant changes to the ongoing forecast in the short term,
as our robust upper level ridge remains parked over New Mexico
and far West Texas. Strong subsidence on the eastern flank of this
high will continue to produce mostly clear skies and hot
conditions through Wednesday. Some cirrus cloudiness from
convective debris over Kansas and northern Oklahoma may slip into
the northernmost counties later today and this evening. This
cloudiness will do little in the way of mitigating our hot daytime
temps today. Highs both today and Wednesday will rise above the
century mark across most of the northern and eastern portions of
the forecast area, with heat indices easily reaching the 105-110
degree range both days. As a result, the Heat Advisory has been
extended for the same geographical area through Wednesday.
Daytime highs and heat indices across the southwest counties will
remain just a touch less warm, with maxima remaining below 100 for
the most part today and Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Ensemble mean model solutions depict the center of the upper
level ridge remaining stationary over New Mexico Thursday and
Friday, with the eastern flank of the ridge dominating North
Central Texas. This will facilitate continued hot conditions, with
daytime highs over 100 degrees persisting in many locations.
By Saturday, however, a subtle pattern shift will ensue, with the
upper ridge retrograding to the greater Arizona region. This will
promote an evolution to a northwesterly flow regime over North
Texas, with a pronounced shortwave trough dropping southward out
of the Midwest, into the Tennessee Valley by early Monday. As this
shortwave brushes the eastern edge of our region, a weak cold
front will sweep southward into North Texas on Saturday. In the
wake of this boundary, northerly flow and slightly cooler air will
infiltrate the area.
Highs ahead of the front will breach the century mark Saturday
afternoon in most areas along and south of I-20, with slightly
cooler readings expected closer to the Red River. Uniformally
"less hot" temperatures (mostly mid to upper 90s) will ensue
areawide on Sunday and Monday, as the northwesterly upper level
flow regime lingers. No precipitation is anticipated with this
brief pattern shift, and indeed the ongoing dry pattern will
likely persist through next week, along with a return to 100-plus
high temperatures in most areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
South flow (160-200) at 5-12 knots and VFR conditions will prevail
at all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 102 82 102 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 79 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 82 102 82 103 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
