Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 201137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

An upper ridge will build in from the west as an upper low tracks
east across the Ohio Valley today. The result will be continued
VFR conditions across North Texas. Gusty northwest winds will
begin to weaken late this afternoon as the axis of a surface ridge
moves in from the northwest. Light and variable winds can be
expected late evening and overnight. Southeast winds will return
on Wednesday as the ridge moves east of the forecast area.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/
/Today and tonight/

The cold front from this past Sunday night has worked its way
well south and east into the Gulf of Mexico and southeast states.
A shortwave dropping southeast across the Red River region is
helping to bring reinforcing cool air southward through the
forecast area behind the front. Persistent cold air advection
today will keep high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than
yesterday. It will remain fairly breezy through early to mid
afternoon with northwest winds in the 15 to 20 MPH range. The
pressure gradient will slacken later in the afternoon as a surface
ridge moves across North Texas. Wind speeds will subsequently
decrease late afternoon and become light and variable this
evening. Light southeast winds should return by daybreak Wednesday
as the ridge slides off to the east.

Otherwise, it looks like the low cloud deck associated with
post-frontal moisture appears to be eroding, so mostly sunny
conditions today and mostly clear skies overnight look like a
safe bet.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/
/Wednesday through Monday/

High pressure will be centered just to our east on Wednesday
morning with light southerly winds returning. The central U.S.
will be dominated by upper level ridging during this time keeping
a squash on any precipitation chances through the end of the week.
Southerly flow will gradually increase on Thursday and into Friday
as pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies ahead of a shortwave
trough. By late Friday, the ridge axis will shift to the east and
the aforementioned shortwave will eject into the Plains by early
Saturday. Precipitation chances will remain low during this time
thanks to several days of southwesterly flow aloft advecting warm
air aloft over the region resulting in strong capping.

By Sunday, a stronger shortwave trough will be digging into the
western U.S. Several days of low level moisture return along with
a plume of 8-8.5 C/km lapse rates aloft will yield modest
instability by the afternoon, especially west of I-35. As
increasing height falls spread into the region during the late
afternoon and a dryline moves into our far western counties, a few
showers and thunderstorms could develop during peak heating. Given
the modest deep layer shear and instability, there would be a
threat for a few severe storms during this time. As we get into
Sunday night and Monday and even further into early next week, the
guidance begins to diverge with the handling of the western
trough. The GFS is more progressive and brings a front through
during the day on Monday while the ECMWF is slower, keeping better
rain chances into Tuesday and Wednesday. Given the spread in the
guidance, we`ll hang on to some low PoPs through Monday.

Temperatures will increase through the week with highs in the 80s
areawide on Friday and climbing to near 90 degrees west of I-35 by



Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  46  75  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                67  41  74  51  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               61  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              63  40  72  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            62  41  70  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              64  46  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  42  72  48  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           64  43  73  50  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              68  43  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       64  40  74  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion