Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
999
FXUS64 KFWD 040035
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another strong cold front arrives tonight with tomorrow being
cool and cloudy.
- Rain chances return tonight and tomorrow, mainly across East
Texas and the Brazos Valley. Occasional light rain, drizzle and
patchy fog is expected further west and north over Central and
North Texas.
- Near-normal temperatures and mostly sunny conditions return Friday
and continue through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Low clouds and patchy fog continues to spread northwestward across
North and Central Texas this evening per surface obs and
satellite imagery. In addition, radar show drizzle and light rain
has developed across Central Texas, and this activity is expected
to continue through the night while expanding in coverage to the
northwest. Made some adjustments to precip chances and fog based
on latest trends, and also added mention of drizzle to the
northwest of the main area of pops overnight. Still appears our
northwest counties will stay too warm for any wintry precip
overnight, with the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma seeing the bulk
of the ice/sleet/snow once again.
Shamburger
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
The region will be undergoing a mini form of temperature whiplash
over the next few days. Yesterday was cool and sunny, today will
be mild and mostly sunny (for the western 2/3rds), and tomorrow
will be cool and dreary. So, what`s causing this...a low pressure
system is currently analyzed near Wichita Falls with a weak cold
front extending southwest into the Caprock. This surface low will
gradually fill over this afternoon and evening, slowly moving east
into/near the I-35 corridor early tonight. As briefly alluded to
above, widespread stratus is forecast to remain in place across
East Texas and the Brazos Valley today, keeping those areas cool.
A much stronger high pressure center and cooler airmass (i.e.
strong cold front) will move into the area overnight that will
eventually overtake/wash out the surface low. A shallow layer of
cooler/drier air will then move into our area from northwest to
southeast late tonight and early tomorrow morning. There should
be a narrow corridor between the stratus to the east and the drier
air to the west where "edge of the stratus" fog is forecast to
develop tonight into tomorrow morning. The fog should be short-
lived and transitory (generally moving from NE to SW), but may be
dense at times. We`re not confident enough the areal coverage or
longevity of the fog to issue a dense fog advisory at this time,
but know it may be needed for the morning commute for parts of
North and Central Texas tomorrow morning.
Low-level isentropic ascent overtop of the cool airmass will ramp
up (yes, pun intended) this evening and tomorrow morning, mainly
across the eastern half of the forecast area. We`re forecasting a
broad area of light stratiform precip to develop this evening over
eastern Central Texas, becoming more widespread tonight across all
of East Texas. Instability is meager, but a few elevated updrafts
may result in isolated showers or perhaps a rumble or two of
thunder tonight/early tomorrow morning across the southeast. The
far southern extent of a quick-moving shortwave trough is forecast
to brush across our area tomorrow, resulting in another round of
spotty light stratiform precip over the course of the day. By the
end of the day tomorrow, measurable precip is most likely across
the far southeast and northwest portions of our forecast area,
with most of the area between these two (including the Metroplex)
receiving very little, if any, measurable precip. All precip-
inducing ascent should move east by tomorrow evening, with no
mentionable precip chances in the forecast through early next
week.
Previous forecasts had mention of light freezing rain/drizzle or
sleet across the far northwest portions of our area late tonight
and tomorrow morning. The latest data has temperatures remaining
above freezing the entire time precipitation is expected, so we
are only forecasting a cold rain at this time. There is still an
outside chance that the actual temperature comes in cooler and
falls to 31-32 degrees for some of the extreme northwest parts
of our area (roughly northwest of Breckenridge -> Jacksboro ->
Gainesville) while precip is falling. Only 5-10% of the data has
this scenario unfolding. If this were to happen, freezing drizzle
is the most likely precip-type with little to no ice accumulation.
At worst, there may be a few slick spots on bridges and elevated
surfaces.
Outside of precipitation, tomorrow is forecast to be cool, cloudy,
and breezy. Daytime highs are only forecast to peak in the upper
30s to low 40s, with wind chill values in the upper 20s to low
30s. Welcome to winter!
Bonnette
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 110 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
Tomorrow`s system will move east overnight, opening the door for
quieter weather in its wake. We`re forecasting another widespread
freeze for those north and west of the Metroplex, but most within
and southeast of the Metroplex should stay above freezing tomorrow
night.
Despite no sensible weather in the forecast, our area will remain
under southwest flow aloft with a few low pressure systems/wind
shifts/cold fronts moving through the area this weekend and early
next week. By-in-large, we should be too dry to receive measurable
rainfall with any of these system, but do expect the temperatures
to seesaw up and down for a few days. It does not look like any
high-impact weather systems are forecast through next Tuesday, so
keep up with the latest forecast for specifics at weather.gov/fwd.
Bonnette
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025
MVFR/IFR/LIFR cigs/vis continue to advance northwest across D10
this hour and have passed DAL and ACT so far. Moved up timing of
MVFR/IFR/LIFR impacts at all airports based on the faster speed of
the incoming low clouds and fog. VCSH/DZ have already broken out
around ACT this hour, and have moved up timing for these impacts
as well at all airports as well as added mention of DZ to D10
TAFs overnight. Conditions are anticipated to improve to MVFR at
all airports by midday Thursday with VFR conditions returning
Thursday evening as clouds clear out. Current southeast winds at
airports will back to northwest/north this evening with a fropa,
and continue northerly through tomorrow with speeds up to 15
knots.
Shamburger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 40 43 34 53 / 10 30 10 0
Waco 44 47 37 53 / 30 50 10 10
Paris 38 42 32 50 / 10 30 10 0
Denton 35 42 28 53 / 10 30 0 0
McKinney 38 42 32 51 / 10 30 10 0
Dallas 42 44 35 54 / 10 40 10 0
Terrell 42 46 34 52 / 20 50 10 10
Corsicana 44 47 38 53 / 50 60 10 10
Temple 45 47 37 53 / 30 50 10 10
Mineral Wells 37 43 29 55 / 10 40 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
