Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
235
FXUS64 KFWD 281811
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1211 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions will exist in our western
counties this afternoon.
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist north of
Highway 380 this weekend.
- Widespread rain and storm chances return Tuesday night through
at least Friday. Some severe storms may be possible. The
potential for flooding may increase towards the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This Weekend)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
This morning`s round of showers across our northeast have mostly
dissipated, though we`ll maintain a very low chance (10-20%) for
isolated showers near the Red River through the afternoon.
Otherwise, warm and breezy weather is expected with afternoon
highs reaching into the 80s and southerly winds between 10-20 mph
with gusts between 20-25 mph. Low humidity, breezy winds, and
above normal temperatures will result in an elevated wildfire
threat across our western zones this afternoon.
A weak cold front will slide towards the Red River tonight but
will likely stall prior to reaching the forecast area. However,
the boundary will serve as a focus for the development of a few
showers which may skirt our northern zones late tonight into
early Sunday morning. Similar weather is expected on Sunday, with
breezy winds, highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and persistent
low rain chances along the Red River near the stalled front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
The aforementioned cold front may attempt to slide a bit further
south Sunday night into Monday morning which will bring another
opportunity for isolated to scattered showers to portions of North
Texas. The front will then retreat north as an upper level trough
and surface low deepen near the Four Corners Region/Eastern
Rockies during the day Monday, with rain-free and warm conditions
expected for the rest of the day.
The surface low will eject from the lee of the Rockies into the
Plains on Tuesday, sending a cold front southward towards the
region. Winds will become breezy as the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the front. Marginally low humidity is currently forecast
west of the I-35 corridor (around 30-40%), which should keep the
fire weather threat below elevated levels. However, given the
breezy winds, warm temperatures, and dry fuels, wildfires would
be difficult to contain should any start.
The cold front is slated to move into the region Tuesday night or
perhaps into Wednesday, with showers and storms expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. The front may become washed
out shortly after entering our forecast area, and it`s unclear if
this will have any implications on our storm chances on Wednesday.
For now, have not made any changes to the NBM which keeps PoPs
associated with this system rather broad-brushed through Wednesday
night. As far as the severe weather potential goes, it does
appear we`ll have sufficient instability and deep layer shear with
marginally steep lapse rates to support at least a low threat for
strong to severe storms. Forcing may be lacking though (especially
if the front washes out), which could keep the threat more
isolated.
Looking ahead to the later portions of the week, we`ll
have the potential for multiple additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms as additional systems move through the CONUS late in
the week and into the weekend. Each of these rounds could be
accompanied by a threat for strong to severe storms. Additionally,
depending on the rainfall that occurs with each round of showers
and storms, we`ll have to monitor the potential for flooding.
There is a strong signal amongst ensemble members that our active
weather will continue through next weekend and potentially beyond,
so ensure you`re keeping up with the forecast throughout the
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026
VFR and breezy southerly winds are expected this afternoon with
wind speeds between 10-15 knots and occasional gusts as high as
20-25 knots. Winds will weaken to around 10 knots or so this
evening but will increase to around 10-15 knots again mid to late
Sunday morning with gusts around 20-25 knots.
High level clouds will move into the area late tonight into
Sunday morning. We`ll have to monitor for the development of
MVFR/IFR stratus across the region Sunday morning. Most guidance
keeps any ceilings well south and east of the D10 terminals, but
there is a low chance it will develop across the Metroplex.
For KACT, have introduced a TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings for a
few hours tomorrow morning since there is slightly higher
confidence in MVFR across Central Texas. There will be another low
potential for isolated showers late tonight into Sunday morning,
but this activity is expected to remain north of D10 near the Red
River.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 82 56 78 / 10 10 10 0
Waco 57 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 56 79 55 75 / 20 10 20 10
Denton 55 81 53 76 / 20 10 20 10
McKinney 56 81 54 76 / 20 10 20 10
Dallas 60 82 59 78 / 10 10 10 0
Terrell 56 82 54 78 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 58 85 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 57 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 55 83 53 77 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
