Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
960
FXUS64 KFWD 030933
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
333 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
will develop along and east of I-35 today.
- A cold front moving across the region today will bring cooler
temperatures for Wednesday with highs in the 50s and lows in the
30s.
- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
from Thursday through this weekend with highs in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026
Latest surface observations show a very mild morning across North
and Central Texas with current temperatures in the upper 40s
north to low 60s south amid mostly cloudy skies. These mild temps
are thanks to strengthening WAA ahead of an approaching cold front
currently stretched from south of Lubbock to north of OKC. This
front will make slow but steady southward progress today, reaching
the Red River around sunrise and exiting our cwa by late
afternoon. Combination of strong WAA, increasing gulf moisture,
and frontal focus/lift will allow for development of scattered
showers along and east of I-35 today, especially in our East Texas
counties. An isolated thunderstorm or two also remains possible
this afternoon as MUCAPE rises to 300-400 J/Kg and mid level lapse
rates steepen into the 7-8 C/km range. No strong or severe storms
are anticipated, however, and rainfall totals look quite paltry
at less than one quarter inch.
Although highs will reach the 60s to near 70 today, a cooler
post-frontal airmass will drop lows into the 30s to around 40
tonight. Wednesday will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than
today with highs only in the mid 50s to mid 60s, followed by lows
dropping back into the 30s Wednesday night. A few isolated showers
are also possible during the day on Wednesday across our
northwest counties as a sharp upper trough moves overhead, but
most areas will stay dry.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026
00Z model suite continues to depict a very large upper ridge
building from the western Gulf northward into western Canada from
Thursday through the weekend into early next week. This pattern
will bring us a lengthy period of dry weather and well-above
normal temperatures, with highs in the 60s/70s and lows mainly in
the 40s - which is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Parts of our southwest counties could even reach
the 80s over the weekend. By Monday and Tuesday of next week, 00Z
GFS/ECMWF show an upper level low over northern Mexico ejecting
across Texas while weakening, with slightly cooler temperatures
and low rain chances possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 329 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026
MVFR cigs are expected to continue at airports through 18-20Z
today before returning to VFR for the rest of the TAF period.
South winds up to 10 knots this morning will veer to northwest by
midday and northerly by early afternoon due to a weak fropa. An
isolated rain shower is possible east of airports today but no
direct impacts are anticipated.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 37 58 35 / 10 0 10 0
Waco 66 38 60 35 / 20 0 0 0
Paris 62 34 53 31 / 40 0 0 0
Denton 62 33 56 30 / 10 0 10 0
McKinney 62 35 55 31 / 20 0 10 0
Dallas 65 38 57 35 / 20 0 10 0
Terrell 65 36 56 32 / 40 0 0 0
Corsicana 67 38 60 36 / 50 0 0 0
Temple 67 38 61 33 / 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 65 33 60 31 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
