Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
776
FXUS64 KFWD 092304
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
604 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to affect
portions of Central Texas through the evening hours.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) are expected
to develop Friday afternoon and evening.
- An active pattern will bring multiple rounds of storms to the
region this weekend into next week. Severe storms and flooding
will be possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
Not a lot of changes to the weekend and early week forecast as we
continue to highlight the multiple opportunities for showers and
storms across our region. Strong to severe storms are possible
each day from Sunday through at least Tuesday given the high
moisture in place and strong flow across the region. Specific
details about the threat for each day is well described in the
previous discussion below.
The most widespread precipitation is still expected to be on
Sunday with on-and-off periods of rain and storms Monday through
Wednesday. Average rainfall totals currently range between 1-2
inches area wide, but a reasonable high-end scenario of 3 inches
is possible across portions of North Texas. Flooding will likely
become an increasing concern next week, especially over those
areas that see multiple rounds of heavy precipitation.
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...Saturday and Saturday night...
Saturday will be another warm and muggy day with surface dewpoints
in the mid and upper-60s, and highs again in the upper-70s and
lower-80s. By this point in the forecast period, longwave
troughing that is currently over the East Pacific will have
shifted over the West Coast and Great Basin. A jet streak looks to
round the base of this trough and extend northward throughout the
day into the Rockies and High Plains. Further east over much of
Central and North Texas, upper-level ridging will be in place, slowly
nudging east into the southern Mississippi River Valley.
Abundant boundary layer moisture and subtle, yet increasing,
forcing for ascent will lead to more persistent cloud cover in the
morning, potentially lingering into a large chunk of the
afternoon. Furthermore, the surface dry line will likely be well
to the west, extending roughly from Big Bend into the Texas
Panhandle. The combination of lingering cloud cover, meager
instability and primary forcing mechanisms remaining well to our
west will make strong/severe storms across North and Central
Texas unlikely during the day on Saturday. However, scattered
showers and non-severe thunderstorms may be possible owing to
weak synoptic scale forcing for ascent and abundant low-level
moisture. Should cloud cover clear earlier in the afternoon or by
late morning, there may be enough instability realized to support
a couple strong storms with gusty winds and small hail (10-20%
conditional chance).
The environment will generally be unfavorable for strong/severe
storms going into Saturday night as well for several reason:
1) Convective inhibition (capping) will quickly develop across the
region well in advance of any potential storm complexes coming off
the dry line from West Texas.
2) The jet streak will linger near the Texas-New Mexico border
Saturday night.
3) There will be little to no instability in place with MUCAPE
under 500 J/kg.
4) No surface based forcing mechanisms are expected as the dryline
retrogrades into eastern New Mexico.
Despite this environment being depicted both in the NAM and
amongst global models such as the ECMWF and GFS, the NBM has
still produced exceptionally high precipitation chances: 80+% for
locations generally west of I-35 and north of I-20 Sunday night.
To be a little informal here, I honestly have no clue where the
NBM is getting these PoPs. Though there is a chance a cluster or
two of storms can maybe make it to locations west of US-281
sometime after midnight, I find widespread rain and storms to be
unlikely. It looks like it is maybe being skewed by global models
like the ECMWF that have a much more aggressive solution with
regards to dry line convection and its longevity into the
nighttime hours. Even still, the ECMWF doesn`t bring this decaying
complex of storms into areas west of US-281 until well after
midnight. All this to say, I`m trusting the NBM as far as I can
throw it with regards to Saturday night storm potential, and as
such have drastically reduced the chances for precipitation into
the 40-60% range west of I-35. These probabilities fit better with
the more likely scenario in which a weakening complex of storms
embedded in light/moderate stratiform precipitation work their
way into areas west of I-35 after midnight. Small hail and gusty
winds may be possible in the stronger downdrafts, but at this
point in time severe weather seems unlikely.
...Sunday and Monday...
Storm potential on Sunday looks to be more substantial as the jet
streak out west will move across the South Great Plains this day.
The ECMWF and GFS are not only in general agreement on the
evolution of this upper-level feature in their latest runs, but
the last several iterations of both models seem to be converging
on this solution, lending more confidence into this scenario.
The core of this jet streak looks to be to the north-northeast
somewhere over the lower Missouri River Valley. As such, strong
flow (60-80 kts) and divergence aloft will provide widespread
synoptic forcing for ascent across the region. Moderate surface
based instability (1500-2500 J/kg) also appears probable,
especially along and west of the I-35 corridor. At the surface,
the dryline still looks to remain to our west, likely extending
from Big Bend up into western Oklahoma. As such, the most probable
scenario at this time would be scattered thunderstorm development
along the dryline and just east in the instability tongue across
the southern Great Plains (generally west of I-35 in North and
Central Texas).
There are a few complicating factors to the forecast for Sunday,
namely the potential for morning convection that would act to
mitigate destabilization into the afternoon, or at the very least
inhibit a more substantial severe weather threat. This signal in
medium range guidance may also be left-over from the likely
overdone convection Saturday night. Regardless, there will be a
conditional threat for severe weather generally along and west of
I-35 Sunday afternoon and evening as long as clouds and any
potential convection clear early enough for sufficient diurnally
driven destabilization.
On Monday, more substantial troughing looks to establish itself
over the Great Basin with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Desert Southwest into the Central Great Plains.
Near the surface, SBCAPE will again potentially rebound to the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range. The dryline also looks to generally have
the same configuration as Sundays. Similar to Sunday, cloud cover
will again be a complicating factor to storm potential Monday
afternoon and evening. As such, there will again be a conditional
threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across North
and Central Texas.
Regardless of how the severe weather plays out these days, PWAT
values look to be anomalously high for this time of year, likely
exceeding 1.5". As such, there will be the potential for flooding
with any storms that are able to train over the same location.
More confidence in flooding potential will come once storm motion
and dryline evolution becomes more clear (will storm motion be
more parallel to the boundary favoring upscale growth or not?).
...Tuesday and Wednesday...
There is some signal these two days for a more substantial threat
for strong to severe storms as the primary trough (with the most
robust vorticity max of the disturbances discussed in this
forecast period) finally ejects into the Great Plains. However,
uncertainty with regards to morning cloud cover and convection,
timing and intensity of the upper-level trough, and the
configuration and evolution of surface boundaries (namely the
dryline) all preclude any meaningful in depth discussion on
midweek severe potential. Nonetheless, this time period bears
keeping an eye on, so please check subsequent forecasts for any
updates as model guidance (hopefully) becomes more certain on a
potential scenario.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
It has been a cloudy start of the afternoon for many of us in
North and Central Texas as moisture continues to increase in the
lower levels. Some areas in Central Texas will remain under mostly
cloudy skies the rest of the day while others will see partly
sunny skies. Highs will peak the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s.
This WAA regime will result in a few showers and isolated storms
across portions of Central Texas, especially our southern zones.
Some of this activity may try to reach the I-20 corridor later
this afternoon and evening, but the chances are pretty low (less
than 10%).
A mid-level disturbance will move from northern Mexico into
southern Texas tonight and will interact with a fairly moist
environment. This will result in additional rounds of rain and
storms overnight into tomorrow morning. For our area, this will
mean a few showers may sneak into our southern zones and will
spread northward into the region during the day tomorrow. The
influence of this weak disturbance and daytime mixing will result
in additional development of showers and isolated storms Friday
afternoon and evening. While Central Texas has the best rain
chances (40-50%), areas to the north will still a have a 20-30%
chance to see some of this activity. Outside of the clouds and
rain chances, expect breezy southerly winds in the afternoon with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...Saturday and Saturday night...
Saturday will be another warm and muggy day with surface dewpoints
in the mid and upper-60s, and highs again in the upper-70s and
lower-80s. By this point in the forecast period, longwave
troughing that is currently over the East Pacific will have
shifted over the West Coast and Great Basin. A jet streak looks to
round the base of this trough and extend northward throughout the
day into the Rockies and High Plains. Further east over much of
Central and North Texas, upper-level ridging will be in place, slowly
nudging east into the southern Mississippi River Valley.
Abundant boundary layer moisture and subtle, yet increasing,
forcing for ascent will lead to more persistent cloud cover in the
morning, potentially lingering into a large chunk of the
afternoon. Furthermore, the surface dry line will likely be well
to the west, extending roughly from Big Bend into the Texas
Panhandle. The combination of lingering cloud cover, meager
instability and primary forcing mechanisms remaining well to our
west will make strong/severe storms across North and Central
Texas unlikely during the day on Saturday. However, scattered
showers and non-severe thunderstorms may be possible owing to
weak synoptic scale forcing for ascent and abundant low-level
moisture. Should cloud cover clear earlier in the afternoon or by
late morning, there may be enough instability realized to support
a couple strong storms with gusty winds and small hail (10-20%
conditional chance).
The environment will generally be unfavorable for strong/severe
storms going into Saturday night as well for several reason:
1) Convective inhibition (capping) will quickly develop across the
region well in advance of any potential storm complexes coming off
the dry line from West Texas.
2) The jet streak will linger near the Texas-New Mexico border
Saturday night.
3) There will be little to no instability in place with MUCAPE
under 500 J/kg.
4) No surface based forcing mechanisms are expected as the dryline
retrogrades into eastern New Mexico.
Despite this environment being depicted both in the NAM and
amongst global models such as the ECMWF and GFS, the NBM has
still produced exceptionally high precipitation chances: 80+% for
locations generally west of I-35 and north of I-20 Sunday night.
To be a little informal here, I honestly have no clue where the
NBM is getting these PoPs. Though there is a chance a cluster or
two of storms can maybe make it to locations west of US-281
sometime after midnight, I find widespread rain and storms to be
unlikely. It looks like it is maybe being skewed by global models
like the ECMWF that have a much more aggressive solution with
regards to dry line convection and its longevity into the
nighttime hours. Even still, the ECMWF doesn`t bring this decaying
complex of storms into areas west of US-281 until well after
midnight. All this to say, I`m trusting the NBM as far as I can
throw it with regards to Saturday night storm potential, and as
such have drastically reduced the chances for precipitation into
the 40-60% range west of I-35. These probabilities fit better with
the more likely scenario in which a weakening complex of storms
embedded in light/moderate stratiform precipitation work their
way into areas west of I-35 after midnight. Small hail and gusty
winds may be possible in the stronger downdrafts, but at this
point in time severe weather seems unlikely.
...Sunday and Monday...
Storm potential on Sunday looks to be more substantial as the jet
streak out west will move across the South Great Plains this day.
The ECMWF and GFS are not only in general agreement on the
evolution of this upper-level feature in their latest runs, but
the last several iterations of both models seem to be converging
on this solution, lending more confidence into this scenario.
The core of this jet streak looks to be to the north-northeast
somewhere over the lower Missouri River Valley. As such, strong
flow (60-80 kts) and divergence aloft will provide widespread
synoptic forcing for ascent across the region. Moderate surface
based instability (1500-2500 J/kg) also appears probable,
especially along and west of the I-35 corridor. At the surface,
the dryline still looks to remain to our west, likely extending
from Big Bend up into western Oklahoma. As such, the most probable
scenario at this time would be scattered thunderstorm development
along the dryline and just east in the instability tongue across
the southern Great Plains (generally west of I-35 in North and
Central Texas).
There are a few complicating factors to the forecast for Sunday,
namely the potential for morning convection that would act to
mitigate destabilization into the afternoon, or at the very least
inhibit a more substantial severe weather threat. This signal in
medium range guidance may also be left-over from the likely
overdone convection Saturday night. Regardless, there will be a
conditional threat for severe weather generally along and west of
I-35 Sunday afternoon and evening as long as clouds and any
potential convection clear early enough for sufficient diurnally
driven destabilization.
On Monday, more substantial troughing looks to establish itself
over the Great Basin with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Desert Southwest into the Central Great Plains.
Near the surface, SBCAPE will again potentially rebound to the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range. The dryline also looks to generally have
the same configuration as Sundays. Similar to Sunday, cloud cover
will again be a complicating factor to storm potential Monday
afternoon and evening. As such, there will again be a conditional
threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across North
and Central Texas.
Regardless of how the severe weather plays out these days, PWAT
values look to be anomalously high for this time of year, likely
exceeding 1.5". As such, there will be the potential for flooding
with any storms that are able to train over the same location.
More confidence in flooding potential will come once storm motion
and dryline evolution becomes more clear (will storm motion be
more parallel to the boundary favoring upscale growth or not?).
...Tuesday and Wednesday...
There is some signal these two days for a more substantial threat
for strong to severe storms as the primary trough (with the most
robust vorticity max of the disturbances discussed in this
forecast period) finally ejects into the Great Plains. However,
uncertainty with regards to morning cloud cover and convection,
timing and intensity of the upper-level trough, and the
configuration and evolution of surface boundaries (namely the
dryline) all preclude any meaningful in depth discussion on
midweek severe potential. Nonetheless, this time period bears
keeping an eye on, so please check subsequent forecasts for any
updates as model guidance (hopefully) becomes more certain on a
potential scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the evening, with all
convective activity expected to remain south of the TAF sites
through tonight. Another intrusion of MVFR stratus is forecast on
Friday morning, with cig heights at IFR levels possible at Waco
for a couple of hours. This deck will lift/scatter by the
afternoon, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
begin to develop across much of the area. With TS occurrences
expected to remain very isolated, will only indicate VCSH in the
TAFs. This activity will wind down by early evening with loss of
daytime heating.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 81 64 81 / 10 30 10 30
Waco 64 80 64 81 / 20 50 10 40
Paris 60 80 60 81 / 0 10 10 10
Denton 60 80 60 80 / 0 20 10 30
McKinney 62 80 62 81 / 0 20 10 30
Dallas 64 82 65 82 / 0 30 10 30
Terrell 61 80 62 82 / 0 20 10 20
Corsicana 64 83 64 84 / 10 30 10 30
Temple 63 80 63 82 / 30 50 20 40
Mineral Wells 60 80 61 80 / 10 30 10 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
