Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
027
FXUS64 KFWD 132352
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
652 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
Texas through 8 PM Monday.
- Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming work
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
As ridging builds over much of the southern and southeastern
CONUS, synoptic scale subsidence and surface high pressure will
allow dry conditions and above normal temperatures to persist
today into tomorrow. Despite strong diurnal mixing throughout the
afternoon, surface dew points in the 60s and low 70s along with
afternoon highs in the upper-90s and lower-100s will result in
peak heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees. As such, a Heat
Advisory is in effect across much of North and Central Texas today.
Tomorrow, the Heat Advisory is confined to the I-35 corridor and
eastward. This area will see richer boundary layer moisture and
higher heat indices (105-107 degrees) compared to west of the
I-35 corridor (100-104 degrees) where strong mixing and gusty
southwesterly winds will help afternoon dew points drop into the
upper-50s and lower-60s.
The abundant boundary layer moisture and a weakness in heights
over the Gulf Coast will promote very isolated rain showers across
portions of Central and East Texas (~10% chance) Sunday and Monday
afternoons. Any shower that is able to develop will likely be
brief in nature due to the entrainment of very dry air above the
boundary layer.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Stubborn ridging aloft and the lack of any surface boundaries
across the region will result in the monotonous hot and dry
weather pattern across the region to continue through the work
week. Medium range guidance that resolved a potential weekend cold
front continues to shift it later into the following week with
the most recent model runs diminishing the potential for any
cooler airmasses to work south into the area by the end of this
forecast period. However, troughing over the western CONUS looks
to deepen this upcoming weekend, shunting the strong ridge
currently overhead to the east and bring in southwesterly flow
aloft. This flow regime change may favor the return of low rain
chances around or just after the end of this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Overnight moisture return should allow for some low-level cloud
development in the Brazos Valley tomorrow morning. KACT has a low
potential (15-20%) for brief MVFR ceilings from 11-15Z, but cloud
coverage is most likely to be SCT or less there. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions are expected through the period, with breezy (8-14 KT)
southerly winds and occasional gusts to 20-23 KT tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 80 99 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 77 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 0
Paris 76 99 76 100 / 10 10 10 0
Denton 79 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 100 77 100 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 81 102 81 101 / 10 10 0 0
Terrell 77 101 76 100 / 10 10 0 0
Corsicana 76 98 76 95 / 10 10 10 0
Temple 75 99 75 100 / 10 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 75 101 75 102 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-100>102-
115>117-129>132-144-157.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Fenske
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
