Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
253
FXUS64 KFWD 031050
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic storm chances will continue Wednesday into the weekend.
The severe weather threat is low, but strong storms could
produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026
Convection from earlier has dissipated across the region with a
canopy of high clouds left behind. The rest of the night will be
quiet with rain cooled air resulting in overnight lows in the
upper 60s and low 70s.
The overall pattern won`t change much going into Wednesday with
North Texas between stronger ridging to the east and a slow moving
upper trough over northwest Mexico. While large scale forcing for
ascent will be displaced to our west, a deep easterly flow will
keep moisture content high in our area through the afternoon.
Drier air beneath the ridging to the east should set up a moisture
gradient which will be draped across North Texas this afternoon
and should serve as a focus for scattered storms during peak
heating. Otherwise, more pronounced outflow boundaries from
earlier convection appear to have pushed out of North Texas. We`ll
keep PoPs at 20% Wednesday afternoon and evening with higher
chances remaining out to our west.
Any afternoon/evening storms should wind down after dark with a
mostly quiet night expected and temps in the upper 60s and lower
70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026
Periodic storm chances will continue Thursday through the weekend
as the aforementioned upper trough over northern Mexico slowly
spreads across Texas and into the Plains. With the upper ridge
firmly to our east on Thursday, PoPs will tick upward by late
afternoon. Similar PoPs are expected on Friday with the region
beneath weak ascent ahead of the upper trough. Our best chances
for rain/storms appears to occur on Saturday as the upper trough
finally moves into North Texas and is aided by an 80 kt upper jet
across the region. While severe weather is not really expected on
a large scale, a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected with a few of the storms capable of hail/gusty winds,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
Rain chances will diminish some headed into early next week as
weak ridging tries to build in behind the departing upper trough.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026
VFR generally prevails across the region, but some pockets of
reduced visibility are noted in outlying areas from the major
airports. A small area of MVFR cigs has also developed across the
eastern parts of the D10 airspace and we`ll have a TEMPO for
BKN025 cigs from 12-13Z. Otherwise, the main concern will be for
additional TS development this afternoon, although coverage should
be less than yesterday. Confidence in even semi-organized TS
development this afternoon is low so we`ll leave it out of the
TAFs for now, but will continue to monitor. Winds will gradually
become southeast overnight with some potential for MVFR again
Thursday morning.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 73 87 73 / 20 10 30 10
Waco 88 71 85 71 / 20 20 30 20
Paris 87 70 84 70 / 10 10 30 10
Denton 88 71 86 72 / 10 10 30 10
McKinney 88 71 85 71 / 10 10 30 10
Dallas 91 73 88 73 / 20 10 30 10
Terrell 89 71 87 70 / 20 10 30 10
Corsicana 90 72 88 72 / 20 10 30 10
Temple 89 71 86 71 / 20 20 30 20
Mineral Wells 88 69 85 70 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
