Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
629
FXUS64 KFWD 092306
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The potential for isolated to scattered storms returns to much
of North TX Thursday, primarily in the afternoon/evening. A few
storms may become strong with gusty winds.
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most
areas rain-free this weekend and beyond.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
The Heat Advisory will expire at 8 PM this evening, with no plan
at this time to reissue for tomorrow due to uncertainty regarding
convective coverage and associated cloud cover. Will let the
overnight shift reassess, and reissue if it becomes necessary for
any particular area. Otherwise, this evening`s convection will
continue to dissipate, with better rain and storm chances expected
tomorrow as a weak front approaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
A weak mid level disturbance is moving through the region which
will help promote isolated diurnal convection (20%) mainly west of
I-35 this afternoon and early evening. This is embedded in slight
height weaknesses aloft in the broader scale upper level ridge,
with large scale subsidence prevailing for much of the region. Any
storm that develops will bring a threat for strong wind gusts,
with convection diminishing after sunset. Peak temperatures this
afternoon will top out in the mid 90s across Central TX to near
102 degrees for much of North TX. Heat indices are in the triple
digits for many locations already, and will climb up to 108 this
afternoon with a Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM.
Some changes are on the way for Thursday, with a low-amplified,
positively-tilted trough moving through the Great Lakes. This has
sent a cold front through the Central Plains this afternoon, with
the position of the front currently in central Kansas. The front
will stall across Oklahoma tonight, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms expected to develop to our north.
The frontal boundary will likely be modified by the expected
convection, and an outflow boundary/effective front looks to be
sent south into North Texas Thursday afternoon, providing a focus
for additional storms. Isolated convection will be possible ahead
of this occurring, but as the ongoing thunderstorms to the north
sag southward through the day, and the outflow is sent southward,
scattered storms (20-50%) are expected across North Texas mid-
afternoon into the evening. The highest storm chances of 60% will
be confined to the Red River in the late afternoon/early evening.
Strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds are the main threat,
with any organized severe weather unlikely. Coverage will taper
off in the evening with lingering isolated storms possible
overnight, mainly across the northeast. In terms of rainfall,
spotty coverage will make for a few lucky folk that get beneficial
downpours, but unfortunately, rainfall is not a guarantee for
anyone across North Texas tomorrow. With the potential influence
of cloud cover and thunderstorms, any Heat Advisory for Thursday
will be assessed overnight when there is higher confidence in
which areas may meet criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Isolated storm chances will linger Friday across the northeast
with continued weakness in heights aloft, with rain chances then
shutting off Saturday and into next week. Upper level ridging will
expand again across the Southeast with more hot and dry weather
the most likely scenario for North and Central Texas. Forecast
temperatures remain in the mid 90s up to 103 degrees for this
weekend and into next week. Not all hope is lost (but don`t get
excited yet, either), with a cold front potentially moving into
the Plains again in about a week`s time. Ensemble guidance still
highlights 25th-75th Percentile max temps in the upper 90s to 102
degrees. So it`s most likely no significant cool down is on the
way, but there may be some additional low rain chances late next
week. This is outside of the official forecast period, so don`t
get any hopes up yet, but will be something to keep an eye on.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Convection associated with an easterly wave and the seabreeze
will be monitored through the early evening, but at this time it
is expected to remain west and south of all TAF sites. All
activity should dissipate shortly after 00Z as instability wanes.
Subsidence associated with an elongated ridge aloft will otherwise
provide overall quiet conditions through Thursday morning, with
VFR and south to southeast winds around 10 kt expected.
A shortwave trough dropping southeast through the Plains will
weaken the ridge aloft and help drag a weak front south to near
the Red River Thursday afternoon. Scattered showers and storms
will accompany the front, and activity should be able to propagate
far enough south to affect the DFW Metroplex TAF sites late
Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. VCTS has been pushed
back an hour to 22Z, and have added a PROB30 for -TSRA and north
winds associated with outflow during the 00-03Z time frame of the
extended DFW TAF.
The threat for severe weather is low, but wind gusts over 40kt may
accompany a few storms and/or associated outflow. Probabilities of
convection reaching KACT are lower, as activity should dissipate
Thursday night shortly after impacting the Metroplex, but VCTS or
VCSH may eventually be needed for a few hours to account for
dissipating convection.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 79 99 / 0 40 40 10
Waco 77 99 77 99 / 0 10 10 10
Paris 76 98 74 96 / 0 40 30 40
Denton 78 99 76 99 / 0 50 40 10
McKinney 77 98 75 97 / 0 40 40 20
Dallas 80 101 80 100 / 0 30 40 10
Terrell 76 99 75 98 / 0 20 40 20
Corsicana 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 10 10
Temple 75 99 75 100 / 0 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 74 100 73 100 / 10 50 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gordon
LONG TERM....Gordon
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
