Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
093
FXUS64 KFWD 131137
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms are expected late Friday
night and Saturday across most of North and Central Texas.
- Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough over Southern
California extending into the Eastern Pacific late tonight. This
system is expected to spread eastward over the next 24 hours and
will bring North Texas some much needed rainfall by Saturday.
Ahead of the trough, widespread high clouds continue to stream
into the state and we`ll steadily see an increase in cloud cover
across the region through the day Friday. Meanwhile, as surface
pressures fall across West Texas later today, low level southerly
flow will strengthen and begin to pull deeper moisture northward.
Dewpoints will gradually climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s by
this afternoon which will be a notable increase over the last
24-36 hours. Modest isentropic ascent in the 950-800 mb layer is
already occurring across North Texas and may actually lead to a
few light radar returns north of I-20 Friday morning, but this
band of low level warm advection will shift north into Oklahoma
around midday and any light rain should gradually lift northward
as well. Friday should be mostly quiet across the region with
clouds increasing and temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and
lower 80s.
By tonight (Fri night), strong height falls will begin to spread
into West Texas ahead of the upper trough and widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late evening
hours well to our west. As strong forcing for ascent overspreads
North Texas after midnight, we`ll gradually see showers and
thunderstorms move into our west/northwest counties through the
late overnight. Areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to increase across most of North and Central Texas
through the day Saturday as the upper trough continues eastward.
While most areas will pick up beneficial rainfall, amounts will
generally vary from around 1/2 inch in our southwest to around 1.5
inches in our northeast counties. Some isolated spots will pick up
more than 2 inches in areas that see training convective bands,
but the overall threat for flash flooding is low given the speed
of the system and the overall recent lack of rainfall.
There will be a threat for a few strong storms on Saturday despite
generally weak instability. Wind fields will be sufficiently
strong to produce long straight hodographs, especially south of
I-20. This could result in a few instances of hail or gusty winds
with the stronger convective activity. All of these showers and
storms will move east of the area Saturday night with clearing
gradually occurring into Sunday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Beyond the Saturday system, a quiet weather pattern is shaping up
for the latter half of the weekend and much of next week. A deep
upper trough will reside over the western CONUS through mid week
with a series of disturbances passing well to our north. North
Texas will remain on the southern periphery of the storm track
keeping things mainly dry and breezy through the middle part of
the week. With temperatures expected to continue to run 15 to 20
degrees above normal and afternoon RH values dropping to 20% or
less, we`ll have to keep an eye on an uptick in fire activity,
particularly west of I-35 Wednesday and Thursday. Recent rainfall
(Saturday) may help mitigate this threat a bit, but we`ll continue
to monitor over the coming days.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
VFR will generally prevail across the region today although
changes are on the way and we`ll have a steady stream of mid and
high clouds across North and Central Texas. Southeast winds 5 to
10 kt can be expected most of today with an increase to around
15 kt expected this evening. Widespread MVFR cigs are expected
tonight ahead of an approaching storm system that will bring rain
and storms to the region late tonight and much of the day
Saturday. We`ll have MVFR cigs with VCSH by 10Z tonight and
prevail -TSRA in the extended portion of the DFW TAF from 16Z and
beyond.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 61 70 54 / 10 60 100 70
Waco 79 61 71 54 / 0 40 100 40
Paris 76 59 67 54 / 20 50 100 90
Denton 80 58 70 49 / 20 60 100 70
McKinney 79 60 68 53 / 20 60 100 80
Dallas 80 62 70 55 / 10 50 100 70
Terrell 79 60 70 54 / 10 40 100 80
Corsicana 81 63 72 56 / 10 30 100 70
Temple 80 61 72 53 / 0 30 100 40
Mineral Wells 81 59 73 50 / 10 70 100 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
