Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
373
FXUS64 KFWD 131929
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
129 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight leading
to colder and windy conditions on Sunday. Light rain and drizzle
may accompany this front`s passage.
- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region next week
with minimal rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
If you`re longing for cooler weather, you won`t have to wait long.
But it won`t stick around very long either. Our area is under the
waning influence of a high pressure center over the Gulf Coast in
advance of a strong cold front that will move through tonight.
Warm and moist air has been transported overtop of a relatively
cooler airmass near the surface, resulting in widespread stratus
overtop of the region. The clouds are thin, so expect intermittent
peeks of sunshine for the remainder of the afternoon. Areas that
remain under cloud cover all day (mainly Northeast) will struggle
to climb out of the 50s while areas with full sun (mainly west)
will climb into the low to mid 70s. The only locations that may
receive any precip will be across the far southeast where the
moisture may be able to deepen enough to produce a few isolated
showers (20% coverage) this afternoon and evening.
The strong cold front will barrel through all of North and Central
Texas tonight with an arctic airmass moving in behind it. As is
typical, it will be shallow and undercut any moisture lingering
in the area. Ahead of the front this evening, we`re expecting low
stratus, potentially drizzle and fog/mist, to develop before the
front clears out any visibility reductions. Expect a sharp drop
in temperature and gusty north winds as well. It does not look
like we`ll hit Wind Advisory criteria, but expect gusts of 30-35
mph tonight and tomorrow morning. Sunday morning will be blustery
with cold air and gusty winds combining to drop wind chill values
into the teens north of I-20 and 20s further south. These values
are above our Cold Weather Advisory criteria so we do not
anticipate issuing any headlines.
Tomorrow will be cold, breezy (winds will be weaker during the
day tomorrow than they will be tonight), with decreasing cloud
cover over the course of the day. Despite abundant insolation
during the day, cold advection will offset heating with highs
remaining in the 40s for most.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025
A widespread freeze is forecast Sunday night into Monday morning.
It will be a decent radiational cooling setup, so while most of
the area will fall into the 20s Monday morning...low-lying cool
spots should fall into the teens. Thankfully, light winds will
make it easier to bundle up in the cold air to start the
work/school week.
The high pressure center associated with the arctic airmass will
move east late Sunday/Monday, with south flow returning Monday
morning. A split flow polar jet will bring a weak upper trough
over the Southern Plains in the middle parts of next week. It`s a
question of whether there will be enough moisture for the system
to work with. Although some of the deterministic guidance does
bring 55+ dewpoints north and slightly higher rain chances to
areas east of I-35 in the middle parts of this week, most of the
guidance remains dry. We maintained NBM PoPs (
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
