Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
007
FXUS64 KFWD 230719
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through
next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely today through
Tuesday.
- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for all of North and
Central Texas today. Additional extensions of heat headlines are
expected through the middle of the week.
- Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased
wildfire starts this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Dangerously hot weather conditions will develop this afternoon
across the region with temperatures ranging between 104 to 109
degrees. Given the expansive reach of the ongoing heatwave, the
Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded and now includes all of
our North and Central Texas counties.
Although we expect dangerously hot temperatures later today, we
continue to see the development of scattered showers across North
and Central Texas this early Sunday morning. This activity is
currently being driven by a southward moving shortwave, moving
over pooled moisture and residual boundaries from yesterday`s
activity to the north. The ongoing activity will continue to
progress southward through the predawn hours and generate
precipitation to a lucky few! There is the potential for a rogue
lightning strike or two, however, the main sensible impact will be
gusty outflow winds.
As mentioned above, this afternoon will be a hot one as our mid-
level high pressure system inches closer to our region. Increased
subsidence will likely prevent the development of precipitation
this afternoon, however, a few high clouds may still stream in
from the north. Nonetheless, sufficient surface warming is
expected areawide to increase the risk for heat-related
illnesses. Remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if
you are outdoors, especially during peak heating hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Our dangerously hot weather will persist through the first half
of the week as the ridge axis to our west slowly progresses
eastward and increases its influence over our sensible weather.
Highs on Monday will likely be 2-4 degrees warmer compared to
today (Sunday). With temperatures this hot, an extension of the
current heat headlines is likely. There is some question regarding
the extent of the 105+ temperatures across Central Texas
tomorrow, therefore, this will continue to be analyzed through
today and a decision on the particular heat product will be made
early this afternoon.
A slow downward trend in the heat will commence on Tuesday as the
ridge once again begins its westward retreat. By Wednesday, the
ridge will have shifted west enough to allow for shortwaves to
once again move across North and Central Texas. With each passing
shortwave, expect increased cloud cover, thus, reducing the amount
of insolation. Additionally, low rain chances will once again be
introduced to the forecast. At this time, any rain that does occur
will be scattered at best. Most locations will likely remain dry
continuing to worsen the ongoing drought conditions.
Heading into the weekend, our weather pattern will remain fairly
stagnant with the ridge axis remaining to our west. Minute east-
west changes to the area of high pressure may allow for a few
shortwaves to sneak into our region, however, nothing looks
promising enough to warrant a mention of precipitation. Expect hot
and mostly dry conditions to persist through the rest of this
forecast period.
Given the continued hot and mostly dry weather conditions in
place, all of North and Central Texas will continue to experience
weather conditions favorable for initial attack type fires. Low
relative humidity and well-above normal temperatures will
continue to further dry vegetation. The limiting factor through
the rest of the week will be the generally light winds expected,
reducing the probability of rapid fire spread. Continue to
exercise caution if preforming activities that may generate
sparks!
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Scattered, short-lived showers have developed early this morning
along an outflow boundary from storms in the Big Country, oriented
SW to NE, and behind a weak cold front, currently draped NW to SE
across the Metroplex. Brief wind gusts of 15-25KT are possible with
these showers, but we expect ceilings and visibility to remain VFR.
Light (5-7KT) ESE winds are present behind the front, but wind
direction should veer toward more typical southerly flow by sunrise
as the front washes out. Meanwhile, light westerly winds have been
observed behind the outflow boundary, which will soon near the
western edges of the I-35 corridor. We will monitor the progression
of this outflow for future amendments, if necessary, to wind
direction at Metroplex sites.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 104 81 104 78 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 102 78 104 79 / 0 0 10 10
Denton 106 82 107 81 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 105 81 106 81 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 107 84 108 83 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 105 80 106 79 / 10 0 0 10
Corsicana 105 81 105 78 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 105 79 104 76 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 108 78 110 78 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
