Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
843
FXUS64 KFWD 271804
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
104 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front is moving south across the region at this
time leading to much cooler weather and scattered rain showers
to end the workweek.
- Following a cool and cloudy Saturday, temperatures will return
to above normal from Sunday through the first half of next
week, with little to no chance for rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
A cold front continues to advance southward across North Texas
and will continue into Central Texas through the rest of the day.
This means that North Texas has already experienced their high
temperatures for the day with a gradual decrease in temperatures
through the day. For Central Texas, temperatures will warm as they
typically do during the afternoon up until the front moves
through at which point temperatures will begin to decrease. Wind
speeds behind the front will continue to be in the 10-20 mph range
with a few gusts between 30-35 mph. The breezy conditions will
persist into the early part of the night before winds gradually
decrease after 3AM. This will allow for a cool night across the
region as temperatures overnight hover right around 45-50 degrees.
Due to the shallow nature of the cold front, 850mb flow will
continue to be out of the east/southeast, supplying elevated
moisture this evening into tomorrow. Cloudy conditions are
expected during this time period with occasional light rain
showers across a large portion of North and Central Texas.
Rainfall amounts will remain light, generally less than a tenth
of an inch.
With cloudy conditions continuing into tomorrow, afternoon highs
will remain in the 50s and 60s with the coolest conditions
remaining west of I-35. As the 850mb layer begins to dry out,
rain chances will start shifting west of our region early in the
morning hours. Winds will gradually shift out of the
east/southeast, remaining between 5-10 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
High pressure will shift southeastward by Sunday, leaving north
and Central Texas with southerly surface winds going into the
next work week. Mid- level zonal flow will keep any weather
systems north of our region on Monday, however, a shortwave will
begin inching closer to the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Guidance
suggest a cold front may approach from the north late Tuesday into
Wednesday, bringing rain chances to the region. There continues
to be some uncertainty on how far south this front will make it
before stalling and retreating northward. For now, we`ll continue
to advertise 20% PoPs north of I-20 Tuesday night.
Zonal flow the latter half of next week will bring increasing rain
chances as shortwaves begin to take a more southerly track in
response to the departing ridge. A series of cold fronts to finish
out the week may lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
however, confidence in coverage and timing remain too low this far
out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Northerly winds are now in place across D10 in response to the
cold front from late this morning. In addition, MVFR clouds have
surged south and will remain in place through the evening. Wind
speeds will continue to increase through the afternoon, peaking
after 21z with gusts approaching 34 kts. The cold front is
expected to reach KACT around 19z with a similar trend compared to
the North Texas TAF sites.
A few rain showers will be possible this afternoon and evening,
however, impacts will remain minimal given the very light nature
of the precipitation. Precipitation changes will come to an end
after 04z as winds remain out of the northeast. A slow transition
to easterly, and eventually southeasterly winds is expected
beyond 24 hours and is now captured in the DFW TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 63 52 82 / 20 0 0 0
Waco 53 64 52 83 / 20 10 0 0
Paris 48 64 49 79 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 48 62 47 81 / 20 0 0 0
McKinney 50 64 50 80 / 20 0 0 0
Dallas 52 64 53 83 / 20 0 0 0
Terrell 51 64 50 81 / 20 0 0 0
Corsicana 53 66 53 83 / 20 0 0 0
Temple 51 65 50 83 / 20 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 47 61 46 83 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
