Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
965
FXUS64 KFWD 261113
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of North and Central Texas
today.
- The overall fire threat will be lower today due to increased
cloud cover and lower wind speeds. However, continue to take
caution to avoid sparking wildfires. Smoke from ongoing
wildfires will continue to reduce visibility in some areas.
- Low (10-30%) storm chances return Wednesday, bringing the
potential for gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
A weak front draped across southern Oklahoma is set to push
southward through North and Central Texas today as a mid-level
shortwave approaches from the northwest. Outflow from an MCV in the
Texas Panhandle had merged with the front early this morning and is
now pushing into our northwestern counties as of 07Z. Expect breezy
(15-20 mph) NW winds and higher dewpoints behind the boundary.
Meanwhile, prefrontal moisture transport has allowed scattered
showers to develop east of the Metroplex; this activity should
continue for the next several hours as the front approaches. Storms
have a low (10-30%) chance of forming near the frontal boundary this
afternoon, especially along a secondary theta-e gradient in East
TX. A few cells may bring strong winds due to the dry pre-frontal
environment. Low (10-30%) rain chances will stick around overnight
into Thursday, particularly for Central TX.
High temperatures are now on the downtrend due to the mid-level
ridge`s westward retreat. Together with higher mid-level cloud cover
and the slight cooldown following passage of the weak front,
temperatures will be lower than yesterday, particularly across the
Big Country and western North TX. However, higher moisture behind
the front could still keep heat index values near the 105-degree
threshold for a Heat Advisory. We will make any necessary
adjustments to the Heat Advisory in our morning update. Temperatures
will feel hot today regardless of the heat headlines in your local
area. Tomorrow, temps will peak in the upper 90s to near 100
areawide, continuing the slight downward trend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Another shortwave riding the ridge will create a low chance (up to
30%) for showers and storms on Thursday along the sagging frontal
boundary in Central TX. Rain chances will slip away beginning Friday
as the front washes out and the center of the mid-level ridge moves
back east into Texas. Luckily, ensemble guidance indicates the ridge
will be a tad weaker than before, keeping high temps through early
next week above average (upper 90s to near 100) but not extreme like
we saw previously. No meaningful relief from the heat is expected as
the signal for above average temperatures and below average rainfall
continues into the first week of September.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all TAF sites through the
period with a low chance for any showers or storms (30%). Outflow
from dying convection in Northwest TX arrived at Metroplex sites
around 09Z, briefly bringing light WSW winds in a few
observations. Now, winds have generally returned to southerly, and
the front appears to be just now approaching the far northwest
reaches of the Metroplex. That being said, winds will still take
on a northwesterly direction beginning around 14Z. Smoke from the
Ross Fire is not expected to impact visibility at the major
airports, but patchy smoke aloft could reach the western edge of
D10 as winds veer this morning during the front`s slow passage.
Isolated, short-lived showers have formed over the last couple hours
in Central TX. A couple of these showers may near KACT over the next
couple hours, but given their short lifespans, confidence is too low
to mention morning precip in Waco`s TAF.
This afternoon, isolated showers are expected to develop near the
front this, with a chance (~30%) to affect all sites between 21-24Z.
While there is isolated thunder potential, we continue to have
higher confidence in seeing -SHRA than TSRA at the TAF sites and
thus have not changed the existing PROB30 line.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 80 99 78 / 20 20 10 10
Waco 103 77 100 75 / 20 20 30 10
Paris 101 74 97 72 / 20 20 10 10
Denton 101 75 99 73 / 20 20 10 10
McKinney 101 75 98 73 / 20 10 10 10
Dallas 101 80 101 78 / 20 20 10 10
Terrell 102 75 99 73 / 20 20 10 10
Corsicana 102 77 100 75 / 20 20 20 20
Temple 102 77 101 75 / 20 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 100 73 100 71 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-102>107-
117>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....Fenske
AVIATION...Fenske
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
