Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
521
FXUS64 KFWD 092318
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the week with a
couple of chances for rain on Tuesday and again late Friday into
next weekend.
- Above normal temperatures and low humidity west of I-35 will
continue to support a grass fire threat through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
High cloud cover continues to stream across North Texas this
afternoon ahead of a slow moving upper low across the Baja
peninsula. This system will eject northeast tonight with large
scale forcing for ascent overspreading North Texas ahead of a cold
front. Moisture return has been modest with surface dewpoints in
the low to mid 50s now spreading into our southeast counties, but
aircraft soundings indicate a large layer of dry air beneath the
current cloud deck. South-southwest winds above the surface will
increasingly veer through the late evening which is unlikely to
result in deeper moisture making it too far north. This will be a
limiting factor in more widespread rainfall potential across the
region on Tuesday.
As the upper trough gets closer Tuesday, we`ll likely see at
least some light scattered showers spreading out of the Big
Country and into our far western counties through the afternoon.
Greater precipitation chances will arrive later in the evening as
a cold front spreads south and isentropic ascent becomes maximized
north of I-20. We`ll maintain 20-50% coverage of showers, but
overall rainfall amounts are still expected to be light with most
areas picking up 1/4 inch or less. Some weak elevated instability
may result in some heavier rainfall rates, but overall amounts
should be on the lighter side. Temperatures will continue to be
well above normal with overnight lows near 60 tonight and highs on
Tuesday in the mid 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
Scattered showers will continue Tuesday night as the upper trough
moves to the east. Cooler and slightly drier air will spread south
behind the front with rain chances ending overnight Tuesday night.
Wednesday will see slightly cooler highs in the 60s but a quick
warmup is expected Thursday and Friday with highs back in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. A stronger upper trough will approach the
Southern Plains during the latter part of the week into the
weekend. This system looks like it will have much better moisture
quality ahead of it and should result in more widespread rainfall
across the region Friday into early Saturday. Wind fields will be
stronger as well and we`ll likely have a little instability to
work with which should support a little deeper convection and
heavier rainfall rates. PoPs during this time will be 60-80% and
we`ll continue to refine the timing over the coming days.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
VFR will prevail through the period while a canopy of mid/high
cloud cover thickens overhead. Cigs at 10-12 kft will be
commonplace overnight into Tuesday, but low-level MVFR stratus is
expected to remain southeast of the airports through the duration
of this forecast cycle. Tomorrow afternoon, a slow-moving cold
front will push through DFW area airports, resulting in a shift
from SSW winds at 10-15 kts to NW winds around 10 kts. This
gradual wind shift should transpire between 22-00z for Metroplex
TAF sites, but will not occur at Waco until beyond 00z. Any rain
chances associated with light precipitation falling from the mid-
cloud deck will also hold off until after 00z, although some virga
is likely to be observed tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 77 51 67 / 0 10 30 10
Waco 59 76 54 72 / 0 10 20 10
Paris 60 76 53 69 / 0 10 30 10
Denton 57 76 45 67 / 0 10 40 10
McKinney 59 76 49 67 / 0 10 30 10
Dallas 61 77 53 70 / 0 10 30 10
Terrell 59 77 51 70 / 0 10 20 10
Corsicana 61 79 56 73 / 0 10 20 10
Temple 57 76 52 72 / 0 0 20 10
Mineral Wells 55 78 46 67 / 0 10 40 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dunn
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
