Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
550
FXUS64 KFWD 151121
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
521 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low clouds will linger through the first half of the day with
sunny skies this afternoon. Some fog will be possible tonight.
- Quiet weather with well above normal temperatures will commence
today through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Wrap around showers and a few storms associated with the core of
an upper trough will continue across parts of North Texas for
another few hours before diminishing closer to sunrise. The cold
front is spreading south through the region now behind this area
of ongoing showers and will move through the Metroplex in another
hour or so. Patchy fog has developed in some spots but this will
be short lived as stronger northwest winds mix out the near
surface moisture. Boundary layer moisture will persist though with
quite a bit of low cloud cover extending well back into Oklahoma.
These low clouds will gradually spread south into North Texas
early Sunday morning with mostly cloudy conditions for the first
half of the day. As drier air eventually works its way down, we`ll
see these clouds scatter out during the afternoon hours. Sunday
will be the coolest day of the week with highs in the mid/upper
60s. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night will likely lead to
areas of fog after midnight. This will persist into Monday morning
before abundant sunshine mixes things out. Sunny skies are
expected Monday with highs back in the mid 70s areawide.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
A period of quiet weather is expected much of next week with
temperatures climbing well above normal. A deep surface low is
expected to develop in the Plains on Tuesday which will result in
strengthening southerly winds across North Texas. Southwest flow
above the surface will lead to rapid warming with highs pushing
90 degrees across our far western counties. The combination of
very warm air, breezy conditions, and RH values dropping below 30%
will likely lead to some fire weather concerns. RH values will
drop much lower on Wednesday and Thursday to around 15-20% west of
I-35, although winds will be significantly lower. The extended
period of above normal temperatures, low humidity, and modest
winds will likely lead to an uptick in grass fire starts,
particularly across our western counties. Another cold front will
push south into the region on Friday, but at this time it appears
that it will come through mostly dry.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Low clouds will linger behind a cold front at least through midday
before scattering out this afternoon. Cigs have generally been
just above 3000 ft but we`ll prevail MVFR through the morning as
upstream cig heights are a little lower. Northwest winds will
continue around 15 kt with intermittent higher gusts through the
morning. VFR should prevail this afternoon and evening with areas
of fog developing late tonight. IFR/LIFR vis will be possible over
a good chunk of North and Central TX early Monday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 47 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 68 45 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 65 43 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 68 41 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 67 44 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 69 46 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 67 44 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 69 47 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 70 44 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 71 42 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
