Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
795
FXUS64 KFWD 152318
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog Monday morning could lead to a temporary reduction in
visibility.
- Warm and dry conditions will increase the potential for fire
starts across western North and Central Texas Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
As yesterday`s system pulls away from the region, the remaining
cloud cover will continue shifting eastward, leaving clear to
mostly clear skies across much of North and Central Texas. A
northerly breeze will persist between 10-15 mph with gusts closer
to 20 mph through the rest of the afternoon.
Heading into tonight, the potential for fog will increase as winds
gradually subside, skies remain clear and radiational cooling
yields temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. The extent of the fog
may be limited if a few high clouds move overhead, however, the
expectation is for the high clouds to remain sparse.
Any fog that does develop will erode by the mid-morning hours,
allowing for the return of clear skies overhead. With southerly
winds in place, temperatures will be in the 70s with a few spots
approaching 80s degrees near Graham/Breckenridge.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Tranquil sensible weather is expected across North and Central
Texas for much of next week. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s
with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.
The main weather related impact will be the increased potential
for fire starts starting Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. As
an upper level trough digs across West Texas, a tightening
pressure gradient will lead to breezy weather each day. With
westerly to southwesterly winds in place across West Texas, a
sharp gradient between the West Texas dry air and slight more
moist air across North Texas will develop. The location of this
gradient will dictate the areas with the highest risk for fires
each day.
On Tuesday, the highest threat will likely remain just to
northwest of Bowie to Graham, however, if this dry air has a
slightly stronger eastward push, the aforementioned areas will
begin to dry more quickly than currently expected in the wake of
yesterday`s precipitation. A gradual eastward shift in the dry air
is anticipated Wednesday and Thursday, expanding the areas that
will be at risk for fire starts. Areas west of this dryline will
likely experience minimum relative humidities in the teens to low
20% range along with breezy west to southwesterly winds.
A cold front is expected to arrive on Friday, leading to an
increase in moisture and slightly cooler temperatures. Low rain
chances will return to the region in association with this front,
however, significant rainfall is not expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
VFR/SKC currently prevails, with a potential for fog and IFR/LIFR
stratus overnight into Monday morning. Northerly post-frontal
winds are beginning to decline in speed, and will become nearly
calm after 03z this evening. Pockets of fog and low stratus should
be able to develop after ~09z, and could result in intermittent
category reductions to MVFR/IFR before rapidly improving after 15z.
Winds will become light southeasterly in the morning, increasing
to around 10 kts in the afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 74 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 45 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 43 69 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 41 73 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 44 71 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 46 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 44 72 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 47 74 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 44 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 43 78 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
