Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
631
FXUS64 KFWD 241823
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1223 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures well
into the 80s are expected through Saturday.
- A strong cold front will bring strong north winds and more
winter-like temperatures back to the region starting Sunday
through the early part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Christmas Evening)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
The rest of the week will be more typical of early October (when
average highs are in the low to mid 80s) thanks in large part to a
stout mid and upper-level ridge that has become planted over the
Southern Plains. Moreover, a high pressure center to our east will
keep southerly flow in-place through the rest of the week. Expect
temperatures to be 20-30 degrees above normal, in both overnight
lows and afternoon highs, today and tomorrow. The sensible
weather will also be similar with morning clouds/patchy fog giving
way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Winds will generally
be out of the south-southwest with a slight breeze in the
afternoon...a typical pattern we see in late summer/early Fall.
It`s a shame that this is happening on Christmas Eve and Christmas
Day (if you like cool weather, that is). Other than that, there
isn`t much to talk about regarding the weather the next couple
days other than the potential for daily records to fall at Waco
and Dallas/Fort Worth.
Here`s a look at the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day records:
12/24 - Christmas Eve
DFWACT
- Record High:88 (1955) - Record High:91 (1955)
- Forecast High: 80 - Forecast High: 79
- Likelihood of Record*: 0% - Likelihood of Record*: 0%
- Record Maximum Low: 60 (2021) - Record Maximum Low: 63 (2021)
- Forecast Low: 60 - Forecast Low: 64
- Likelihood of Record*: 90% - Likelihood of Record*: 75%
NOTES: DFW airport fell to 60 degrees this morning and is unlikely
to fall below 60 degrees before midnight. This would tie the
previous record. Waco fell to 64 degrees this morning and there
is a 25% chance the temperature falls to 62 degrees or below by
midnight tonight.
12/24 - Christmas Day
DFWACT
- Record High: 82 (2021) - Record High:82 (2021)
- Forecast High: 82 - Forecast High: 81
- Likelihood of Record*: 50% - Likelihood of Record*: 38%
- Record Maximum Low: 69 (2016) - Record Maximum Low: 67 (2016)
- Forecast Low: 63 - Forecast Low: 62
- Likelihood of Record*: 8% - Likelihood of Record*: 18%
*Likelihood of the record being tied OR broken
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
The previous discussion below is still largely on-track, so there
is no need to make a whole-scale update to it. It`s still looking
like Friday and Saturday will be exceptionally warm with highs in
the mid 80s (even low 90s for some west of DFW), and that our
next strong cold front will arrive Sunday. Expect falling temps
over the course of the day Sunday with cooler temps continuing
into early next week. Further details can be read below.
Previous Discussion...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Near-record to record warmth will continue through Saturday with
daily highs in the 80s. Friday looks to be the hottest day of this
December heat with widespread highs in the mid and upper 80s.
There has been a persistent signal of some sort of dryline feature
setting up across the Big Country, bringing dew points down into
the upper 40s (humidity into the 20s) west of a line roughly from
Gainesville to Comanche. The combination of the dry air in place,
clear skies, and southwest winds (added warming component from
adiabatic compression off the Mexican Plateau) will set the stage
for a few locations in the Big Country to potentially hit 90
degrees (10-15% chance); exceptionally rare for late December in
North Texas. We will keep monitoring any potential for upper-
level clouds to inhibit these kinds of temperatures, but as of now
would not be surprised to see a few 90s pop up in surface
observations Friday afternoon in the aforementioned area.
Saturday, while cooler than Friday, should still be very warm with
on more day of highs in the low and mid 80s before a strong cold
front sweeps through the area Sunday morning. With the timing of
the front trending a little slower than in previous forecast
cycles, Sunday should still be an above average day temperature
wise with highs in the 60s and low 70s. However, post-frontal
winds out of the north will be very gusty, with gusts of 30-35 mph
possible.
Monday morning will be nearly polar opposite to what we`ve seen
this week, with lows in the 30s. Near to below freezing
temperatures will be possible generally north of I-20 and in the
Big Country. With this much colder airmass firmly in place across
the region by Monday, highs very well may remain in the 40s, with
Monday night featuring widespread sub-freezing temperatures across
North and Central Texas.
All this to be said, if you enjoy the warmth, cherish these next
few days because the end is in sight. And if you love the cold,
don`t worry, relief looks to be on the way for next week.
Darrah
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025
Southwesterly downslope flow made quick work of the thin stratus
that engulfed the D10 airspace earlier this morning. MVFR stratus
continues to the west and east of D10, but should slowly lift and
scatter through the afternoon.
VFR should prevail at the TAF sites with south-southwest winds of
10-15 kts and occasional gusts of 18-20 kts today. Another round
of stratus is expected to move in late tonight/early tomorrow
morning, but we`re not completely confident on exactly where the
northern fringe of the stratus will be. We have opted to include
prevailing low MVFR ceilings at ACT and only a SCT025 deck for the
D10 TAF. However, I would not be surprised to see intermittent
MVFR ceilings and ILS conds for D10 on Christmas Day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 63 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 79 62 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 79 61 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 80 61 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 79 62 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 63 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 79 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 81 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 81 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 84 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette/Darrah
AVIATION...Bonnette
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
