Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
328
FXUS64 KFWD 232320
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
620 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for North Texas
late this afternoon and tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are the main concerns.
- Dry weather with seasonably hot and humid conditions will
continue through the rest of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
As we head into the early afternoon, the local weather situation
remain somewhat innocuous (but still hot and humid) despite an
active radar presentation just to our north. A few showers have
developed over North Texas associated with a weak axis of low-
level warm advection, but the chance of lightning through the
early afternoon is low due to a capping inversion around 800 mb.
We are more concerned about the cluster of storms ongoing across
western North Texas, currently near Quannah. These storms are
moving southeast near a surface boundary and have access to
plenty of warm/unstable air, so there is little reason for them
to dissipate in the next few hours. They have trended more
westward toward the Big Country over the past few hours, but
steering currents aloft do indicate them making a run for our
western and northwestern counties as we head into the late
afternoon and evening. Moreover, a couple converging outflow
boundaries are expected to merge over central Oklahoma in the next
couple hours. While most of this activity will remain to our
north this afternoon, we will have to watch for this activity
merging into an organized cold pool that moves SSE toward our Red
River counties this evening and tonight. As it stands right now,
our confidence regarding any convection is very low since most of
the CAM guidance has grossly mishandled the convective evolution
today.
So in summary, our stab at the most likely forecast is that a
cluster of strong to severe storms should move south into the Big
Country late this afternoon into the evening. The strongest storms
should stay just to our west, with a few showers/storms over our
western/northwest counties. We also think a cluster of storms
should move into our north/northeastern counties this evening
into tonight that moves southeast through the early morning hours.
The main threats within our forecast area will be gusty winds and
additional heavy rain that could lead to flooding. This is
particularly true if the strongest cores of any storms are able
to move into the area. Our official forecast carries pretty broad
20 PoPs for most of North Texas this afternoon and tonight largely
due to the uncertainty.
Outside from any precipitation, it has turned into another hot and
humid day with highs in the low 90s and heat index values a few
degrees over 100. Tonight will be warm and humid, in fact, if our
current forecast holds (79) it will break the record high minimum
temperature at DFW (78, set in 1940). There has been a stalled
front over Oklahoma the past couple days, and this front should
finally lift north tomorrow. This will allow for the low-level
moisture to more efficiently mix out tomorrow afternoon, allowing
heat index values to be closer to 100 degrees. It won`t feel too
different than today, but we`ll take any relief from the humidity
we can get at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
It`s finally starting to look like the upper-level flow will
become more westerly in the middle to late parts of this week.
Once this occurs, we anticipate for the repeated chances of
convection to subside. Another benefit will be slightly lower dew
point temperatures on Thursday before another modest moisture
surge moves inland late in the week into the weekend. The wind
shift aloft will largely be due to a shift in the mid-level ridge
over the desert SW which will also result in warmer temperatures.
Expect highs to gradually climb into the upper 90s and eventually
the lower 100s this weekend or early next week. Current NBM
probabilities indicate that its more likely than not for our
first widespread 100 degree day to occur this weekend or early
next week. Of course, the wildcard will be any tropical moisture
surges that move inland and regulate temperatures and/or increase
precip chances, but it`s too far out to say we`ll get one of
those or not at this point.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Main concern is the potential for thunderstorms on-station at the
Metroplex terminals for the first 2 to 3 hours of the TAF period.
Existing thunderstorm activity approaching the Metroplex has
diminished in the past half hour of so but a chance of
redevelopment exists along resultant boundaries. Will carry
PROB30s for TS on station with no category reduction, as well as
VCTS. A low chance of MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning exists at the
Metroplex sites, but confidence is not high enough to include more
than a SCT mention at those heights. MVFR ceilings are more likely
at KACT and will be included beginning 10Z. VFR conditions are
expected during the afternoon, with some diurnal cu around.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 97 77 97 / 30 10 0 0
Waco 76 94 74 94 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 74 91 74 91 / 70 30 10 0
Denton 77 95 77 96 / 50 20 0 0
McKinney 77 94 77 94 / 50 20 0 0
Dallas 79 97 77 97 / 30 20 0 0
Terrell 77 95 75 95 / 30 20 0 0
Corsicana 76 96 74 96 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 75 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 97 75 97 / 50 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Hatfield
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
