Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
937
FXUS64 KFWD 121108
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
508 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High clouds will continue across the region today and Tuesday
with a low chance for light rain/sprinkles in Central Texas.
- Seasonal temperatures will persist through the week with little
chance for rainfall through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
Water vapor imagery shows a slow moving upper low spinning over
Baja California with a steady stream of eastern Pacific moisture
continuing to spread high cloud cover across the state of Texas.
These clouds are intermittently thick across North Texas so we`ll
keep a fair amount of clouds in the forecast through Tuesday given
the slow eastward progression of the upper trough.
At the surface, high pressure has moved just east of our area and
winds are gradually becoming more southerly although several
locations are calm at this hour. Expect southerly winds to resume
on Monday as high temperatures climb a few degrees into the
low/mid 60s. As the upper trough out west moves in our general
direction, strong mid level height falls will overspread Texas
with a good amount of mid level forcing for ascent expected from
the Big Bend region into Central Texas. This will likely result in
some radar returns across the region, but a lack of more
appreciable low level moisture means that most of this will be
virga. We`ll have a low chance for sprinkles across our far south
and southwest counties this afternoon, but most areas will remain
rain free. A similar pattern is expected on Tuesday as the trough
finally ejects eastward into a broader trough over the eastern
CONUS.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026
With a large eastern CONUS trough amplifying midweek, we`ll see
another cold front move through the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
As has been the case for much of the winter so far, a lack of
decent low level moisture will mean this front will come through
dry. Breezy north winds can be expected Wednesday afternoon along
with RH values dropping below 30%. Despite cooler temperatures,
there will be at least a low threat for fire starts in the dry
conditions mainly west of I-35 during this time. The upper pattern
will remain progressive through the end of the week and into next
weekend with another front moving through on Friday. Similar to
the previous one, little chance for rainfall is expected.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms through next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026
VFR will prevail with light winds this morning becoming south
around 5-7 kt. Intermittent thick high cloud cover will continue
to stream overhead through the period. No significant aviation
concerns are expected at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 41 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 63 41 62 42 / 0 0 10 0
Paris 61 37 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 65 35 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 64 38 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 64 42 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 62 38 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 63 41 66 44 / 0 0 10 0
Temple 63 41 63 41 / 0 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 66 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
