Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
317
FXUS64 KFWD 280537
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1237 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a low chance (10-20% chance) for thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of North Texas.
- Above normal temperatures are possible Friday through Monday
with many seeing highs in the low 90s each day.
- Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will be possible in the
afternoon and evening hours the first half of next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
A warm and tranquil night is on tap for North and Central Texas
tonight. Clouds will continue to linger (especially east of I-35)
due to a departing upper-level disturbance as temperatures drop
into the 60s and lower 70s. Due to the light winds, low dewpoint
depressions and clear skies, patchy fog will be possible across
portions of Central Texas, particularly south of the US-84
corridor.
Thursday will be warm with highs in the upper 80s and partly
cloudy for most across the region. While a stray shower or
thunderstorm (10-20% chance) can`t be ruled out Thursday afternoon
and evening, the vast majority of those across the region will
remain dry. This is largely due to an increase in synoptic scale
subsidence across North and Central Texas owing to negative
vorticity advection and higher heights building in from the west.
The greatest chance to see a storm or two during this time frame
will be along and north of the I-20 corridor. A stray shower or
thunderstorm may linger north of I-20 and east of I-35 into the
early overnight hours.
Friday will be the start of a warming trend as upper-level ridging
builds in from the west. Temperatures will be near or slightly
above average with highs in the upper-80s and lower-90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
The upcoming weekend will be hot and generally rain free as an
upper-level ridge establishes itself over the southern Great
Plains. Temperatures Saturday through Monday will warm into the
low and mid-90s during the afternoon hours. While there is a weak
signal for a couple isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop
during peak diurnal heating, the lack of lift and the presence of
a capping inversion atop the boundary layer will make rain
unlikely during this period.
By next work week, upper-level flow should de-amplify and be
relatively weak and zonal. A few weak disturbances may traverse
the region above a warm and moist boundary layer, bringing enough
lift for isolated (10-30% chance) showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not expected at
this time, though there will be enough instability to support a
strong thunderstorm or two capable of gusty winds and/or small
hail.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Patchy fog is expected to develop across Central Texas with a low
chance (20-30%) of bringing periodic 1-3SM visibilities to KACT
between 11Z and 14Z. Across Metroplex TAF sites, there is a weak
signal for MVFR cigs (2-3kft) between 13Z and 17Z. Guidance
suggests this cloud layer will be FEW or SCT, so changes to flight
category are not anticipated as of now. Will monitor the evolution
of this cloud deck overnight should a TEMPO MVFR line need to be
included in future TAF issuances. Probability of all discussed
above remains too low to include in TAFs at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 70 89 73 / 40 10 20 20
Waco 81 66 88 70 / 30 0 0 10
Paris 80 67 83 68 / 90 30 20 30
Denton 82 67 87 70 / 40 10 20 20
McKinney 78 68 87 70 / 80 10 20 20
Dallas 84 70 89 73 / 50 10 20 20
Terrell 80 65 86 70 / 80 10 20 20
Corsicana 80 64 88 70 / 50 10 10 10
Temple 79 65 88 69 / 20 0 10 10
Mineral Wells 83 65 88 69 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
