Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
437
FXUS64 KFWD 090526
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1126 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few storms are expected ahead of a cold
front mainly across our southeast counties on Friday. A few
strong storms could produce some hail.
- A strong cold front will move through the region Friday evening
with gusty north winds and much cooler air.
- Seasonal temperatures are expected this weekend into next week
with little chance for additional rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
A weak frontal boundary is currently drifting south of the Red
River late this evening with light northerly winds and slightly
cooler air. This boundary will sag south toward the I-20 corridor
through the overnight hours. While we can`t rule out an isolated
light shower developing along this boundary, we should remain
quiet through the overnight hours.
A more significant boundary separating high theta-e air from a
drier airmass is located across our southeast counties denoted by
the sharp increase in surface dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s.
This tight theta-e gradient will be the source for scattered
shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon (Friday) as
an upstream shortwave spreads into the Southern Plains. While
meager surface based instability is available across southeast
Texas, this will generally remain to our south and east through
the afternoon. However, forecast soundings suggest around 500 J/kg
of elevated instability will be available as far west as the I-35
corridor and south of I-20. As strong forcing for ascent
overspreads the region ahead of the aforementioned shortwave, we
should see scattered showers and storms develop along this
moisture axis. A deepening surface low will track along or just
north of the I-20 corridor through this evening (Friday) and
strengthening westerly winds aloft will quickly push this activity
into east Texas by late evening. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing some marginally severe hail this
afternoon/evening in the strongly sheared environment, but a lack
of more robust instability will generally limit the severe threat.
As the surface low continues east, a strong cold front will slide
south through North Texas tonight (Friday), entering our
northwest counties after sunset and quickly pushing through the
entire area by midnight or a little after. Much cooler air will
spill southward sending overnight lows Friday night down near
freezing in our northwest with upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.
Highs on Saturday will be close to seasonal norms in the mid 50s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
A cold night is expected Saturday night as surface high pressure
builds into the Southern Plains and winds diminish. Most areas
will be near freezing early Sunday morning with upper 20s expected
across much of our western counties. A modest warmup is expected
through Tuesday with temperatures climbing back into the 60s,
however a slow moving upper low over northwest Mexico may lead to
intermittent high cloud cover Sunday through Tuesday. Otherwise,
the pattern is expected to remain largely quiet with another
weak, dry cold front arriving late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. Rain chances will remain near zero through the middle
of next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
VFR prevails across the region late this evening and will
generally continue through the period with wind direction being
the primary concern. SCT/BKN250 high clouds will continue to
stream across the region overnight and Friday with light southwest
winds becoming north around 5 kt behind a weak front that will
move through the D10 airspace in the next few hours. These light
winds will likely vary in direction from northwest to northeast
through the morning before becoming a little more westerly early
this afternoon (Friday). Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop mainly south of D10 this
afternoon and we`ll include a few hours of VCTS at KACT.
Otherwise, winds will shift to the north behind a stronger cold
front late Friday night with north winds continuing into early
Saturday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 48 68 40 / 30 0 10 10
Waco 80 50 69 42 / 10 0 30 10
Paris 78 46 68 41 / 40 0 20 20
Denton 79 42 67 35 / 40 0 10 0
McKinney 79 44 67 38 / 40 0 20 10
Dallas 80 49 68 41 / 30 0 20 10
Terrell 79 47 69 40 / 30 0 30 10
Corsicana 81 53 71 44 / 20 0 40 20
Temple 82 52 71 40 / 10 0 40 10
Mineral Wells 79 42 71 35 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
