Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
618
FXUS64 KFWD 010518
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in parts
of Central Texas today. Severe weather is not expected.
- Hot but less humid conditions are expected this weekend, with
rain-free weather prevailing through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Upstream convective activity along a southward moving cold front
has dissipated during the last few hours, with tranquil weather
expected for the remainder of the overnight period. The front
will make gradual progress through the forecast area today,
shifting winds to northerly while ushering in lower dewpoints for
much of North Texas to begin the weekend. For Central Texas, this
boundary will not arrive until later in the daytime, and some
convective activity in its vicinity will be a possibility. High-
based showery precip could begin as early as sunrise as mid-level
ascent from the front`s attendant upper trough axis interacts
with greater moisture content. Deeper convection may attempt to
develop immediately along the front later in the day aided by
diurnal destabilization, although the placement of the front
during this time frame remains uncertain. While a couple of
robust cells could materialize across our southeastern zones
roughly southeast of a Temple to Palestine line during peak
heating, it is more likely that convection along the front will
be predominantly south of the CWA.
The uncertainty in the surface front`s position through peak
heating also extends into today`s Heat Advisory decision. As is
typical for a mid-summer front, its passage will have a minuscule
impact on ambient temperatures, but it will usher in noticeably
less humid air which will remain in place for the proceeding
couple of days. For the majority of the area, significantly lower
dewpoints in the 50s will keep heat index values near actual
temperatures in the upper 90s this afternoon. The one exception to
this may end up being our far southeastern zones. If the front is
less effective at scouring moisture content from Central Texas or
stalls prior to advancing south of the CWA, then a few of our
southeastern counties could see heat index values surpass 105
again this afternoon. For now, will side with a slightly faster
and more aggressive moisture scouring, and will refrain from heat
headlines at this time. The front should push fully through the
area by Sunday, and this will result in the most pleasant day out
of the next several with high temperatures "only" reaching the
mid/upper 90s while dewpoints mix into the low/mid 50s area-wide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
A southerly flow regime will become reestablished heading into
the workweek as the weekend frontal boundary quickly washes out
and higher dewpoints gradually return northward. Building mid-
level heights will aid in sending temperatures back into the
triple digits which will persist through much of the upcoming
week. Moisture will still mix out rather aggressively for the
first few days of the extended forecast, with afternoon dewpoints
still even reaching the 50s for portions of the area. However,
the hot temperatures will likely still allow Heat Advisory
thresholds to be met either by virtue of temperature criteria
(103F) or heat index criteria (105F). With the upper ridge and
subsidence in full control, rain chances will be nil through the
long term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Convection along an approaching cold front has dissipated with
loss of heating as expected, and this boundary is still forecast
to pass through dry at the D10 TAF sites overnight. Winds will
continue to gradually veer west as the front approaches, with a
shift to northerly occurring with its passage around 10-11z. A
north wind and VFR skies will then prevail through the rest of the
forecast period. For Waco, this frontal passage will not occur
until closer to 16z, and there may also be a couple of high-based
showers nearby through midday. However the precip potential is
too low to warrant inclusion in the Waco TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 80 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 101 79 101 74 / 0 10 20 0
Paris 101 75 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 104 77 98 72 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 103 77 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 104 81 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 103 77 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 101 78 99 73 / 0 0 10 0
Temple 100 77 99 74 / 0 10 20 0
Mineral Wells 105 75 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
