Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
321
FXUS64 KFWD 091039
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot and mostly rain-free weather will prevail through
next week.
- The threat for more widespread grass fire activity increases by
the middle and latter part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Earlier convection has died out across the region leaving behind
only some remnant high cloud cover across our southeast counties.
The rest of the night should be quiet with temperatures falling
into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Mid level ridging will begin to
expand back to the east during the day Sunday but enough moisture
should be present across the eastern half of the CWA for an
isolated storm or two to develop during peak heating around the
eastern periphery of the ridge. In addition, a few sea breeze
storms from southeast TX may spread north into our southeastern
counties during this time. We`ll have PoPs at 10% for now for the
isolated convection. Otherwise, seasonably hot temperatures will
continue Sunday into Monday with highs right around 100 degrees.
Persistent deep boundary layer mixing has kept afternoon dewpoints
in the low/mid 60s and this should continue through Monday. Heat
index values between 102-105 degrees will remain below advisory
criteria at this time.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Mid level ridging will continue to expand eastward through the
week with the center of the ridge axis over the Southern Plains by
Wednesday. While this will keep things hot and dry, 500 mb height
anomalies are less than 1 standard deviation above the mean
through the week. This suggests temperatures will remain
seasonably hot, but not oppressive by any means for this time of
year. Forecast highs will typically range from 99-103 each day
through the end of the week. The one thing we will have to watch
is an increasing threat for grass fire activity through the
upcoming week. Persistent lee side troughing will help maintain a
stronger than normal pressure gradient across North Texas,
particularly Wednesday through Friday. Latest NBM median max wind
gust forecasts approach 30 kt across the region, particularly west
of I-35 during this time. Given the extended period of dry
weather, afternoon RH values below 30%, and uptick in wind speeds,
we could see a more significant grass fire threat develop through
the latter part of next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with south winds 10 to 15 kt.
There is a low chance for afternoon convection mainly southeast of
the major airports. Any storms that develop will have the
potential for gusty winds and wind shifts well away from the
actual storms. Coverage of storms is around 10% today.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 98 77 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 96 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 100 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 99 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 97 76 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 97 76 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 97 75 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 99 76 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
