Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
392
FXUS64 KFWD 172342
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide for Thursday afternoon,
when heat index values at or above 105 are expected.
- The arrival of a front late Thursday and Friday will bring chances
for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the area for the end of
the workweek and the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Generally rain-free and mild conditions are expected across North
and Central Texas this evening as the region remains on the
subsident side of Tropical Storm Arthur as it translates along the
upper Texas Coast towards Louisiana. Expect low clouds to develop
once again late tonight into early tomorrow morning, and low
temperatures in the mid 70s.
Unseasonable heat and humidity will be the main weather concern
across North and Central Texas, with a Heat Advisory in effect for
the entire region Thursday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to
warm into the mid to upper 90s across most of the region Thursday
afternoon, with a few areas across the Big Country approaching the
triple digits. In combination with high humidity in place, heat
index values will soar into the triple digits, ranging from 105 to
110 degrees. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade, and
wear light-colored, breathable clothing to prevent heat-related
illnesses.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Our attention will turn to the return of rain/storm chances late
Thursday evening into Friday as a slow-moving cold front
translates towards North Texas. Isolated convection may develop
off the dryline across the Big Country Thursday afternoon and
spread into portions of North Texas Thursday evening as a cluster
or complex, but this scenario remains low at this time. There is
higher confidence in showers and storms developing along the cold
front Thursday night into Friday across North Texas and portions
of Central Texas as weak troughing aloft translates overhead. The
severe weather threat is low, but strong wind gusts and heavy
rainfall cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms. Increased
cloud cover and precip should result in lower temperatures ranging
from the upper 80s to low 90s Friday afternoon across portions of
North Texas. Meanwhile, triple digit heat index values near or
exceeding 105 degrees is expected across portions of Central
Texas that remain free of showers and storms.
Near daily rain/storm chances continue into the weekend and early
next week as weak disturbances aloft translate across the Plains.
PoPs range from around 20-40% each day across portions of the
region. Increased cloud cover may provide some relief from the
heat, but heat index values will still approach the triple digits
each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
The positioning of Tropical Storm Arthur will shunt most of the
Gulf moisture into East Texas and Louisiana over the next 24
hours. This will likely place North and Central Texas TAF sites
on the western flank of the low cloud deck expected to redevelop
overnight/Thursday morning. Will keep a TEMPO for MVFR cigs at all
locations Thursday morning due to uncertainty of the western
extent of the lower cloud deck. Cigs will push off to the east
around midday Thursday, with VFR expected the rest of the day.
Focus will then shift to the northwest where a shortwave trough
will ignite scattered thunderstorms by Thursday evening. A strong
cap will accompany the highly unstable environment, but the
presence of a dryline and weak cold front (along with the
disturbance aloft) should overcome the cap during peak mixing
hours, with storms likely developing some time between 21Z and
23Z. Activity may begin to encroach on the Metroplex from the
northwest after 03Z Thursday evening, though discrepancies in
high-res CAMs make the exact timing uncertain. VCTS has been
added starting at 19/04Z in the extended DFW TAF, and will narrow
down the timing as newer guidance is received.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 98 79 92 / 0 0 40 30
Waco 76 95 78 92 / 0 0 30 20
Paris 74 93 76 87 / 0 0 60 60
Denton 77 96 78 91 / 0 0 60 40
McKinney 76 96 78 90 / 0 0 50 50
Dallas 77 98 80 93 / 0 0 30 40
Terrell 74 96 77 92 / 0 0 20 30
Corsicana 76 97 79 94 / 0 0 10 30
Temple 77 96 79 93 / 0 0 30 20
Mineral Wells 75 99 75 90 / 0 0 60 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Garcia
LONG TERM....Garcia
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
