Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
707
FXUS64 KFWD 101855
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
155 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms are expected this afternoon across parts
of Central and East Texas. Severe weather will become likely by
evening and tonight across much of the region. Damaging winds
and large hail will be the main threats. A few spin up
tornadoes are also possible.
- Some storms will linger into Wednesday mainly along and east of
I-35 with a continued threat for hail, winds, and flash
flooding.
- Warm and dry conditions are expected through the end of the
week after storms move out of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
An active weather pattern will remain in place through the short-
term period with the potential for severe storms late this
afternoon and tonight and locally heavy rain and flooding through
tomorrow. Latest radar and satellite imagery show warm advection
showers and isolated storm spreading mainly over Central and East
Texas. A surface low and dryline remains far to our west over West
Texas and will slowly move eastward this evening and tonight.
We`re still watching two rounds of storms to impact our area, the
first one later this afternoon (between 3-7pm) and the second
near/along the dryline this evening and tonight.
This afternoon: Latest high-resolution models continue to show
less coverage of scattered storms over our region for this
afternoon, with a focus mainly across our far southeastern/eastern
counties. Based on the 18Z FWD and several ACARs soundings, the
environment over the DFW Metroplex remains fairly stable with an
evident cap in place near the 850-900mb layer. While these areas
to the east/southeast of I-35 will lack of a stronger lift, enough
instability and shear could still support some isolated severe
storms with large hail and a tornado or two possible if they
remain discrete.
This Evening and Tonight: As the upper low tracks eastward, the
surface low and dryline should also make its progression over our
area. Widespread showers and storms should begin to develop west
of our area late afternoon and enter our western counties this
evening (after 7pm). While we could see some messy storm mode at
first, storms are still expected to congeal into a line as it
moves towards the I-35 corridor after 9-10pm. Very large to
giant hail will be the main threat mainly across our western
counties, but as the storms organize more into a line, we could
transition more into a threat for damaging winds and a few spin up
tornadoes. Additionally, we could see locally heavy rain and
minor flooding with some of the stronger cells during the
overnight hours. The severe threat should slowly decrease as the
line moves east of I-35 after 1 am tonight, but lingering showers
and storms will continue through the night.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop
during the day as the upper trough moves over our state and a
surface low/cold front moves through the region. Rain and storm
chances will begin to decrease for North Texas early in the
afternoon as the front approaches Central Texas. A few strong to
severe storms may develop mainly across our far southern counties
with damaging winds and hail as the main threat. In addition to
the severe risk, pockets of heavy rain may also result in flash
flooding due to high PWs and very efficient rainfall rates. As the
main line of showers and storms move east, breezy northerly wind
are expected across the region in the afternoon and Wednesday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
After the mid-week system moves east and out of our area, dry
conditions will persist through end of the week into the weekend.
Thursday will be slightly cooler with highs in the 60s, but a
quick warming trend will return Friday through the weekend. A
stronger front is forecast to arrive on Sunday but no rain is
anticipated. Much cooler weather will follow into Monday with
highs in the 50s and low 60s. Lows Monday night may drop into the
30s/40s which is 5-10 degrees below normal for mid March. We will
enjoy it while we can before spring weather returns toward the
second half of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
/18Z TAFs/
Concerns...Thunderstorms this evening and tonight. MVFR ceilings
return tomorrow.
While we`re still watching the potential for a few isolated
storms this afternoon (after 20Z), confidence has increased that
this activity will remain mainly to the southeast/east of the DFW
Metroplex sites. As a result, we removed the TEMPO TS for this
afternoon and left the mention of VCTS to account any activity in
the vicinity. The potential for storms at ACT is higher,
therefore, we continue to carry the mention of TEMPO between
20-23Z. Some of these storms may be severe with very large hail
and damaging winds as the main threat.
More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected tonight as a
line of storms develop to our west and move eastward. Latest
models show storms moving across the sites between 03-07Z with
lingering showers and isolated storms continuing through the
morning hours (12-13Z). A cold front will begin moving into North
Texas by mid-late morning with breezy north winds into the
afternoon. Some MVFR ceilings are possible as the front moves
through, but clearing is expected after 18Z.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon near and south
of I-20, and this evening across western North Texas. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 63 79 44 / 50 90 30 10
Waco 79 63 78 43 / 60 90 40 10
Paris 80 63 75 40 / 70 90 60 10
Denton 80 60 77 38 / 50 90 20 10
McKinney 80 62 77 41 / 50 90 40 10
Dallas 80 64 78 44 / 60 90 30 10
Terrell 80 63 77 42 / 70 90 60 10
Corsicana 81 66 79 45 / 60 80 70 20
Temple 80 63 80 43 / 50 80 50 10
Mineral Wells 83 59 77 39 / 60 90 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
