Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
645
FXUS64 KFWD 031137
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily rain chances Tuesday
night through this weekend.
- Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of North and
Central Texas near a cold front.
- After a relative lull in precipitation coverage Thursday,
multiple rounds of thunderstorms will bring a severe weather and
flash flooding threat to much of North and Central Texas Friday
into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
South winds have returned to North and Central Texas tonight and
will increase into Tuesday as surface troughing shifts toward the
Texas Panhandle. Low clouds will overspread much of the region by
early Tuesday morning, clearing out by midday. Southerly flow at
10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph at times will continue to draw greater
quality moisture into North and Central Texas during the day
Tuesday setting the stage for unsettled weather the rest of the
week. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s across much of
the area Tuesday with a few locations across East Texas struggling
to get out of the 70s where low-level cloud cover lingers into the
early afternoon.
By Tuesday evening, a cold front will be shifting into southern
Oklahoma and slowly making progress south of the Red River Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder will be possible near the Red River Valley
during this timeframe. The cold front will likely stall near the
I-35 and I-20W corridors by mid-afternoon Wednesday. A capping
inversion centered near 800mb will keep any more robust
convection from developing in the vicinity of the front until
after 2-3PM Wednesday afternoon, but isolated to scattered warm-
advection showers beneath the cap will be possible earlier in the
day ahead of the boundary. By mid-afternoon, scattered deep
convection is expected to develop along and ahead of the front in
a plume of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Southwesterly mid/upper-level
flow will not be overtly impressive on Wednesday with effective
bulk shear of only 15-25 kts expected to overlap the threat area
the latter half of Wednesday. This would promote primarily
multicell clusters of storms capable of producing isolated large
hail and damaging wind gusts beneath the strongest cores. The
front will retreat back to the north late Wednesday evening as
southerly flow quickly re-establishes across the region. The
overall severe threat will diminish across much of the area by
10-11PM Wednesday night, with perhaps some weakening storm/shower
activity lingering north of I-20 after midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through the Weekend)
Issued at 1218 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Favorable southwesterly flow aloft and a moist airmass overhead
will keep rain chances in the forecast through the remainder of
the work week and into the weekend across North and Central Texas.
A relative lull in precipitation coverage is expected Thursday
into Thursday night with most of the thunderstorm activity
remaining tied to a dryline located well west of our forecast
area. However, with well-above PWAT values overhead and subtle
shortwaves in the flow aloft, we will opt to keep some 30-50% PoPs
in the forecast areawide Thursday into Thursday night. The severe
weather threat on Thursday is near-zero for much of the area,
minus a very low end threat for hail and damaging wind gusts if
the West Texas activity makes a run for our Big Country counties
west of Highway 281 late Thursday evening into Thursday night.
The severe weather threat looks to increase Friday and Saturday
across North and Central Texas as favorable southwesterly flow
aloft strengthens and important surface features shift into the
region to provide additional sources of lift. Medium-range
guidance is in decent agreement that a large spatial area of
moderate instability will develop ahead of a dryline expected to
settle west of I-35 Friday. Scattered convection is likely to
develop in this unstable airmass Friday afternoon into Friday
evening, with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear supporting the
potential for organized thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a couple tornadoes.
Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely Saturday into Sunday
as a cold front slides south into North Texas. Severe weather will
remain possible into the weekend, however the primary focus will
turn towards the potential for flash flooding and river flooding.
An anomalously moist airmass is expected to settle over the state
of Texas this weekend with the aforementioned cold front expected
to stall somewhere in North and Central Texas. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms and training thunderstorms will promote a heavy
rain/flash flood threat over the weekend, so make sure to monitor
the forecast as we start to nail down the locations where higher
rainfall totals may lead to excessive runoff.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
MVFR cigs at 1500-2500 ft have now overspread much of North and
Central Texas and are impacting all FWD TAF sites. Low stratus
will remain overhead through the morning, lifting and scattering
out by 17Z-18Z. South winds at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts up
to 25 kts will prevail through much of today with the gusts
diminishing after sunset this evening. Low stratus will return
areawide once again Tuesday night after 07Z-08Z.
Looking ahead, a cold front will sag south of the Red River
northwest of the Metroplex after sunrise Wednesday morning.
Isolated showers will be possible ahead of this boundary, but
confidence in coverage is not high enough for VCSH mentions in
the Metroplex TAFs at this moment. Greater shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected just after the DFW extended TAF period
Wednesday afternoon and evening with potential TSRA impacts at the
terminals.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 66 76 64 / 0 20 70 70
Waco 85 66 79 65 / 0 10 70 40
Paris 79 63 77 63 / 10 20 70 80
Denton 82 63 75 59 / 0 20 80 70
McKinney 81 65 76 63 / 0 20 70 80
Dallas 83 67 78 65 / 0 20 70 70
Terrell 82 65 79 64 / 0 20 60 60
Corsicana 84 67 82 66 / 10 10 60 40
Temple 85 65 81 64 / 0 10 70 40
Mineral Wells 86 62 72 59 / 0 20 80 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
