Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
940
FXUS64 KFWD 121117
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
617 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain and storms will affect Central Texas and parts
of North Texas this morning into the afternoon/evening. Some
storms may be strong to severe with all hazards possible,
including heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
- An active pattern will persist through midweek with storm
chances and potential for strong to severe storms both Tuesday
and Wednesday.
- A strong cold front is expected to move through all of North and
Central Texas on Saturday with more rain and storms, followed by
much cooler temperatures and dry weather for late weekend into
early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Earlier QLCS has raced through North and Central Texas early this
morning and has fallen apart as it outran the instability axis.
However, additional thunderstorms are already redeveloping across
Central Texas along the remnant outflow boundary from the morning
QLCS. This activity will likely continue through the morning with
additional storms developing this afternoon as the outflow
boundary lifts northward. CAMs all indicate some of these storms
could become strong or severe given the ample MLCAPE and shear
forecast, with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all
possible. In addition, CAMs such as the HRRR have been showing
swaths of very heavy rain along the outflow boundary with a threat
for flash flooding, although other models such as the NAM are less
enthused. Contemplated a Flood Watch for parts of Central Texas
given these trends, but given the significant uncertainty on
placement of the heaviest rain axis will hold off for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Already been a busy morning with a few warnings and a new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for an extensive QLCS extending from the Red
River southward to Graham to Comanche then on to the Mexico
border. This line is currently in an environment characterized by
weak instability with MLCAPE around 500 J/Kg or less, but strong
low level shear with 0-1km shear up to 40 knots. This has allowed
for a couple of brief circulations along the QLCS, as well as some
areas of enhanced downburst winds. However, as the line continues
eastward, RAP analysis/forecasts show MLCAPE decreasing to 100
J/Kg or less near the I-35 corridor. Therefore the line will
weaken with time and eastward extent as it reaches the Lake
Texoma/Metroplex/Waco corridor in the 4-6 AM timeframe.
Rain and storm activity will continue to diminish through the
morning hours, but most guidance indicates additional
showers/storms will develop from late morning into the afternoon
where the airmass can sufficiently destabilize in the wake of the
morning cloud cover/storms, and along remnant outflow boundaries
from the morning activity. This looks to mainly be from the
Metroplex southward across Central Texas. Forecast soundings in
this area show MLCAPE recovering into the 1500-2500 J/Kg range
with 0-8km shear up to 60 knots and low level 0-1km shear between
15-30 knots. Therefore some storms that form late this morning
into the afternoon could become supercells with a threat for
damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. Heavy
rainfall and flooding is also possible as CAMs such as the HRRR
show significant training of storms across the same areas, with
that model showing anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain today.
Some of this activity will likely continue into Sunday evening
before exiting off to our east, with a quiet Sunday night
anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
The active weather pattern will continue through the week thanks
to a deep upper level trough over the western CONUS bringing
persistent southwesterly flow aloft across the state. Monday looks
to be quiet across our area as a strong cap prevents any storm
development, but an isolated dryline storm cannot be ruled out in
our west. Storms are more likely to form along and ahead of the
dryline on Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper trough gradually
ejects out into the Plains. Although nothing super high for this
time of year, the moderate CAPE and shear expected both days will
be sufficient for a strong to severe storm threat with any storms
that form.
The dryline will retreat off to our west for Thursday and Friday
which should keep us dry both days. By Friday night and especially
Saturday, 00Z global models continue to show a strong cold front
sweeping south through the region and bringing a line of
showers/storms with it. Once again, some strong or severe storms
are possible with this activity on Saturday before it shifts out
of our neck of the woods. Behind the front, much cooler and drier
air is anticipated for the rest of the weekend into early next
week with lows in the 40s/50s and highs only in the 60s/70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
After coordination with the CWSU and area airlines, have made
significant changes to the TAFs for today given radar and latest
model guidance trends. Light rain will end in the Metroplex
shortly, with MVFR cigs and VCSH/VCTS redeveloping later this
morning followed by VFR conditions and VCTS this afternoon as
activity in Central Texas spread northward. Unclear how far north
these TSRA may get so amendments are likely. Activity should shift
eastward this evening with widespread MVFR cigs developing
tonight. South to southeast winds gusting up to 25 knots are
anticipated through the TAF period.
For ACT, SHRA/TSRA will continue much of the morning followed by a
brief break before another round of SHRA/TSRA and MVFR cigs this
afternoon. Activity will shift eastward this evening with MVFR
cigs expected overnight. South winds around 15 knots are
anticipated through the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Spotter activation may be requested across North and Central
Texas today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 68 84 68 / 90 20 10 10
Waco 78 67 82 67 / 90 40 10 0
Paris 76 66 80 66 / 80 50 30 10
Denton 79 65 84 66 / 90 20 10 10
McKinney 77 67 82 67 / 90 30 10 10
Dallas 79 67 84 68 / 90 30 10 10
Terrell 78 67 82 67 / 80 40 20 10
Corsicana 81 69 84 69 / 70 50 20 0
Temple 79 68 84 67 / 70 50 10 10
Mineral Wells 81 64 86 66 / 80 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
