Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
815
FXUS64 KFWD 142317
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
517 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across parts of North and East Texas through tonight, and some
of these storms could contain small hail. Activity will come to
an end from west to east after midnight as a cold front moves
through.
- Quiet weather returns Sunday with well above normal temperatures
through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
A potent, amplified upper level trough moving into West Texas is
promoting widespread forcing for ascent across all of North
Central Texas today. With healthy amounts of moisture advecting
northward into the region, our well-advertised precipitation
event has unfolded quite nicely across the area. Narrow
non-severe thunderstorm line segments are now moving through the
broader I-35 corridor, producing periods of heavier rainfall
within the larger precipitation shield. These linear features will
track through our eastern North Texas counties through the
afternoon, and the combination of shear and a bit better
instability may promote better organization and the potential for
some isolated severe cells, with marginal hail, gusty winds, and
perhaps even brief tornadoes all possible. Otherwise, additional
rainfall totals of a half to one inch are expected, with some
pockets picking up as much as 3 inches with the stronger, training
cells.
The back edge of the larger scale precipitation shield will be
transiting the I-35 corridor by late afternoon, and exiting the
forecast area in the evening. However, short term convective
allowing models still advertise a pocket of colder air aloft
rotating into North Texas by mid evening. This elevated
instability will enable the development of additional cellular
convection over our area, with a few claps of thunder and even
some small hail possible through 2-3 am. This last round of
activity should clear our forecast area prior to daybreak Sunday.
While this last bout of rain is occurring, gusty post-frontal
northwesterly winds will be picking up areawide overnight. The
airmass behind this front is not that cold in nature, and thus a
significant decrease in temperatures is not expected.
Sunday will feature cloudy, breezy conditions for the most part,
as wrap around moisture continues to advect into the region.
Subsidence will finally take hold by midday however, leading to an
west-to-east clearing trend through the afternoon and early
evening hours. Despite the clouds, winds and the calendar, daytime
temperatures will remain remarkably mild for mid February
(especially compared to this date 5 years ago)...with highs in the
60s the rule.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
As the potent upper level trough responsible for our beneficial
rainfall exits the region stage right, a mid level ridge of high
pressure will build across the Southern Plains from Monday through
Thursday. High temperatures will respond to the subsidence from
this pattern by soaring well into the 70s and lower 80s through
mid week. A transition to a more zonal flow will occur by Friday,
coincident with the arrival of a cold front. This will help reel
in the daytime temperatures back to the 60s for the most part
Friday and Saturday, but even these milder temperatures are still
several degrees warmer than usual for the last half of February.
Meanwhile, no appreciable rainfall is expected through next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Today`s round of showers and thunderstorms has exited the TAF
sites to the east, with additional isolated/scattered convective
activity expected near the airports later this evening. Winds are
currently light and variable in the presence of an ill-defined
wake low, although they will recover to prevailing southwesterly
in the next hour or so ahead of an approaching cold front.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase across parts of North
Texas around/after ~02z as an upper low moves overhead, followed
by one final batch of convective activity along the cold front
itself which will pass through around 07z. Post-frontal MVFR
stratus will then prevail the remainder of the night and through
most of the daytime tomorrow before gradually clearing out late in
the afternoon. Breezy northwest winds of 15 kts and gusts to 25-30
kts can be expected behind the front.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 53 69 46 74 / 70 0 0 0
Waco 54 67 45 71 / 40 0 0 0
Paris 53 64 43 69 / 60 0 0 0
Denton 50 68 40 74 / 70 0 0 0
McKinney 53 67 43 72 / 70 0 0 0
Dallas 55 68 46 73 / 70 0 0 0
Terrell 53 67 43 72 / 70 0 0 0
Corsicana 56 69 47 74 / 70 0 0 0
Temple 52 70 43 74 / 40 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 51 70 41 79 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
