Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
922
FXUS64 KFWD 311844
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
144 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal
through Wednesday.
- Daily chances for showers and storms will arrive Wednesday
through Saturday, with the highest chances Wednesday night and
again Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. A few strong
to severe storms are possible during this time period.
- Rain chances will end on Sunday with much cooler weather
expected heading into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
A warm and breezy afternoon is shaping up across North and
Central Texas. Plenty of sun and continued southerly winds will
allow temperatures to peak in the 80s once again, well above
normal for this time of year. A surface low to our northwest in
the TX/OK Panhandles is tightening the pressure gradient and
resulting in increased wind speeds and gusts for the rest of the
day. Attached to this low is a sharpening dryline out in the
Permian Basin and a cold front up in central Kansas. These surface
features will remain to our west and north through midweek,
eventually bringing us our first April showers and storms.
As a weak disturbance moves overhead, storms are likely to
develop along the dryline and move east tonight. However, this
activity is likely to dissipate before or right as it reaches our
northwestern counties as it moves into a more stable environment.
As such, we will continue with a dry forecast this evening, but
keep a silent 10% chance for precipitation in our northwest in the
off chance that a stray storm/shower is able to nudge into our
CWA. Otherwise, elevated southerly winds overnight will keep
injecting Gulf moisture into the region, aiding in the formation
of a stratus intrusion Wednesday morning. Gusty winds are
expected to persist in the presence of the the surface low to our
northwest, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible tomorrow afternoon.
Sustained speeds may approach Wind Advisory criteria, but this
will be isolated and only for an hour or two. Hence, we will
forego any wind headlines.
One last afternoon of mostly dry conditions is expected tomorrow
out ahead of an incoming shortwave disturbance moving into the
Central Plains. Some warm advection induced showers and storms
will be possible in the Brazos Valley during the afternoon, but
the main round of activity will initially develop to our west
along the aforementioned dryline in the late afternoon. Initially
more discrete in storm mode, this activity is expected to grow
upscale into clusters and broken lines as it advances east,
entering our Big Country counties closer to 8-9 PM. The pre-storm
environment will have enough instability and deep-layer shear, as
well as steep lapse rates, to allow for a threat for strong to
severe storms capable of primarily damaging winds for areas mainly
near and west of the I-35/I-35E corridor. Secondary threats will
include large hail and perhaps a couple spin-up tornadoes where
line segments are able to kink, though those threats will
generally be maximized to the west and north of our area where
storms will be initially discrete. As this activity moves across
the I-35 corridor into the eastern half of our CWA, a weakening
trend is expected as storms encounter a more unfavorable
environment.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
The weakening line(s) and clusters of showers and storms will
continue to advance through East Texas as we head through Thursday
morning. After this activity exits the region, a relative lull in
precipitation is expected the rest of the day, outside of
lingering isolated chances in our northeast. With the dryline
remaining to our west and the cold front remaining to our north,
warm temperatures in the 80s will persist on Thursday.
Our next round of precipitation is expected on Friday. A stouter
shortwave will move laterally over the northern CONUS across the
Continental Divide. As this shortwave advances east, the system`s
cold front will finally be shunted southward. Out ahead of this
front, expect increasing coverage of warm advection showers and
storms in North and Central Texas during the afternoon, with
additional convection developing along the dryline out west and
the incoming cold front to our north. Coverage of storms will
increase Friday night into Saturday morning as this front/dryline
activity grows upscale into clusters and lines as the front moves
south through the region. The environment will allow for another
chance for strong to severe storms. Additionally, while this round
of storms will be progressive, PWATs around 1.75" (which are in
at least the 90th climatological percentile) will promote pockets
of heavy rain and isolated flooding concerns for areas that
receive heavy rain earlier on Wednesday/Thursday.
Saturday`s FROPA will push much of the rain chances to the south
of the region. However, there will continue to be isolated chances
for showers across portions of Central Texas through Sunday as
weak disturbances may provide enough lift for some overrunning to
occur atop the post-frontal airmass. Otherwise, rain chances will
end by the beginning of next week. Post-frontal temperatures will
be below normal for the beginning of April, with highs in the 60s
this weekend and 60s/70s early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Gusty south-southeasterly winds up to around 25-27 kts are
expected to persist at all TAF sites through this afternoon
underneath diurnal cumulus and streaming cirrus. Winds will remain
elevated around 13-15 kt overnight, allowing a quick moving MVFR
stratus deck to move overtop the airports an hour or two prior to
daybreak. MVFR cigs will likely linger through much of the
morning, but will eventually lift back to VFR by the afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the south for the rest of the period, but
will increase in speeds tomorrow afternoon, with gusts between
25-30 kt expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 87 67 84 / 0 0 90 60
Waco 67 88 66 83 / 0 0 60 70
Paris 64 83 65 81 / 10 0 70 70
Denton 64 86 63 84 / 10 0 90 40
McKinney 66 86 67 84 / 10 0 90 60
Dallas 67 88 66 85 / 0 0 80 60
Terrell 65 86 67 82 / 0 0 70 70
Corsicana 67 88 68 84 / 0 0 50 80
Temple 67 89 67 83 / 0 0 50 70
Mineral Wells 64 88 62 86 / 0 10 100 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
