Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
906
FXUS64 KFWD 070009
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
709 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas where
periodic showers and storms now into Sunday will result in
localized heavy rain and flash flooding.
- A few strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail
will continue this evening, with a low threat for additional strong
storms overnight.
- Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the
upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees
each afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 0701 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
No significant adjustments were made this evening, other than
some changes to the PoPs based on ongoing storms and trends
anticipated through the night. The current storms have had a fast
enough storm motion to preclude significant flooding concerns at
this time, but the additional showers and storms expected
overnight are still likely to produce flooding issues in the Flood
Watch area. Based on the latest guidance, the area of highest
confidence for seeing any isolated totals of 6-8" exists roughly
in areas immediately west and southwest of the DFW Metroplex,
extending SW in the vicinity of HWY 67 into Comanche/Erath
counties. Isolated flooding will still be a threat throughout the
entire Watch area, especially in spots that have already received
1-2" this evening with pockets of 2.5-3" QPE. Otherwise, a low
threat for these storms being strong with gusty winds will
continue as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The active pattern continues this afternoon for north Texas with
ongoing rain showers mainly northeast of the Metroplex. The upper-
level low driving this activity is located over northwest Texas with
a dry slot moving in from the southwest. Most of the high clouds
have cleared out due to the dry slot but this has allowed for plenty
of heating to take place from the Metroplex westward. This,
combined with being close to the upper low should lead to increased
chances for strong storms to develop late this afternoon across the
Big Country then moving into the the Metroplex overnight.
Initially, storms will have the potential to produce some hail as
they develop and move through the Big Country during peak heating
time. Later this evening and overnight, storms should congeal and
become heavy rain producers with the potential for multiple rounds
of thunderstorms across the western and northwestern parts of the
area. The HREF Mean rainfall totals show areas of 1 to 3 inches for
most areas, but some corridors of heavier rainfall are looking more
likely. The HREF LPMM shows localized higher total amounts of 6 to 8
inches through tomorrow morning. It is still uncertain where this
corridor of heavier rainfall will set up, but areas northwest of a
line from Dublin to Sherman can expect to see heavy rain overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing eastward across the
Metroplex tomorrow morning as the trough axis moves eastward.
Although severe weather chances look low, storms could quickly
produce amounts of around one inch for urban areas and lead to
localized flooding. Rain chances should decrease tomorrow afternoon
as the upper level low finally lifts northeastward towards Kansas
City.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the
Midwest by Monday. In it`s wake, a subtropical ridge will build in
across Texas and persist through much of next week. Rain chances
will dry up during this time, but the tradeoff is much sunnier and
hotter conditions are anticipated. Model consensus shows 500mb
heights of 590dam centered over east Texas with 850mb temperatures
of 17-20 deg C each day. There is a low to medium (20 to 50%) chance
for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In addition, the
humidity levels will still be rather high for much of next week with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This would lead to heat indices
between 100-107 each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 0701 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
A line of thunderstorms continues shifting east through D10 this
evening with AFW/FTW now clearing out. This round is unlikely to
be the only impact from convection for the night, with an
additional round of storms possible, although confidence is lower
in overall coverage. After this TSRA moves through, a brief window
of VCSH has been included in the TAF with this issuance to denote
the break in thunder chances from ~02-05Z depending on the exact
site. A PROB30 has been included from 05/08Z to capture the
greatest timing potential for any direct impacts. Will monitor
trends with a potential shift to a TEMPO group if confidence
increases. Otherwise, MVFR cigs are forecast across D10 in the
predawn hours through mid morning, but timing will likely need to
be refined and assessed with the trends of the convection. South
winds will become a bit breezy by mid to late morning with
sustained speeds around 11-15 kts.
For Waco, VCTS has been introduced 07/10Z, in line with the
latest trends and model guidance, with confidence too low to
mention any TSRA. Cigs around 08-11 kft will arrive in the
predawn hours and gradually improve mid morning before scattering
midday. South winds will be sustained at 10-14 kts through the day
tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 90 75 93 / 70 40 0 0
Waco 73 88 75 91 / 70 30 0 0
Paris 71 85 74 89 / 60 60 10 0
Denton 71 90 76 92 / 70 50 0 0
McKinney 72 88 75 91 / 70 50 0 0
Dallas 73 91 76 94 / 70 40 0 0
Terrell 71 88 74 92 / 60 40 0 0
Corsicana 73 89 75 93 / 60 40 0 0
Temple 73 89 75 91 / 50 30 0 10
Mineral Wells 69 91 75 94 / 80 40 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gordon
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Gordon
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
