Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
867
FXUS64 KFWD 271058
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central
Texas today.
- The overall fire threat will be lower today due to increased
cloud cover and lower wind speeds. However, continue to take
caution to avoid sparking wildfires. Smoke from ongoing
wildfires will continue to reduce visibility in some areas.
- Storm chances will be low today, mainly across western North
Texas and Central Texas. There will be a potential for small
hail and strong outflow winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
The Southern Plains remains positioned on the eastern periphery
of a mid-level area of high pressure, currently centered over the
Four Corners region. This has allowed shortwaves to migrate
southward into our region, bringing periods of showers and storms
to the region.
A weak boundary remains draped across the region early this
morning with showers and storms ongoing eastern Central Texas.
Given the 15-20 degree dew point depressions and modest
instability, a few of these storms have become strong with gusty
outflow winds and small hail. This activity is expected to
continue moving south through the next few hours with mostly
precipitation-free conditions closer to sunrise.
A surface low will continue to deepen across Southeast Texas,
influencing our region with north to northeasterly winds through
much of the day. Even with the northerly wind component,
temperatures this afternoon will manage to climb in the upper 90s
to around 101 degrees. Hot temperatures combined with dew points
in the mid to upper 60s will result in heat index values between
100-109. The warmest "feel-like" temperatures will generally be
along and east of the I-35 corridor, where a Heat Advisory remains
in effect through this evening.
Low rain chances will once again return this afternoon as weak
forcing remains near the stalled boundary. Coverage should stay
limited, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop, especially across Central Texas and western portions of
North Texas. The dry sub-cloud layer will limit rainfall totals,
however, stronger cells will be capable of strong outflow winds
and small hail.
Tonight, expect precipitation chances to come to an end with
temperatures in the 70s across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Mid-level ridging highlighted in the short term discussion will
continue to be the dominant feature through the rest of this
forecast period. While the center of the high will remain well
west of our region tomorrow, it`s expected to start building back
to the east this weekend. With increasing heights overhead,
subsidence will help shunt precipitation chances away from our
region. This translates into slightly warmer temperatures next
week with widespread triple digit highs across much of North
Texas.
The position of the high will continue to influence our weather
next week as models now shift the center of the high east of our
region, bringing deep southerly flow by the latter half of the
week. This could bring better moisture, helping temperatures drop
by a few degrees. Unfortunately, even with the potential for
slightly cooler temperatures, heat index values are still going to
remain in the "it`s too hot" category.
Given the lack of wetting rainfall expected, the threat for new
fire starts will continue across the region. Vegetation remains
dry with afternoon relative humidity in the 20-30% range through
the middle of next week. Remember, you can help avoid wildfires!
Do not burn if a burn ban is in effect and never throw cigarette
butts out your window!
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
VFR conditions will persist across North and Central Texas TAF
sites today. Showers and storms are ongoing near KACT, however,
this activity continues to move south, away from the terminal.
Therefore, no mention of precipitation was added.
The rest of today will be dry for North Texas, however, a few
showers or storms may develop across Central Texas. Coverage is
expected to remain low, therefore, confidence in precipitation
impacting KACT remains too low to mention in TAF. This will
continue to be assessed in the coming hours and amendments will be
made if probability of precipitation increases.
For North Texas, expect precipitation free conditions today. The
main weather headlines will be a gradual veering of winds through
the day, settling out of the southeast after 08z. Wind speeds
will remain below 10 kts across the region.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 78 99 79 / 10 10 0 0
Waco 101 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 0
Paris 97 73 96 72 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 99 74 99 74 / 10 10 0 0
McKinney 99 74 98 74 / 10 10 0 0
Dallas 101 78 100 79 / 10 10 0 0
Terrell 99 73 99 73 / 10 10 0 0
Corsicana 100 75 98 75 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 102 75 99 74 / 20 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 101 72 100 72 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ102>107-117>123-
131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
