Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
157
FXUS64 KFWD 171745
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms (15-20% chance) are possible today
primarily north of I-20.
- Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next
week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
The upper low that`s been plaguing the state for the last several
days is finally tracking out of the area. Higher heights building in
across East Texas, and the resulting subsidence, has led to much
quieter conditions this afternoon. An isolated chance (15-20%) of
showers or storms remains for areas north of the I-20 corridor. The
few showers that have developed are moving at a much quicker pace
compared to previous days, limiting the threat of heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding, but keeping the chance for some gusty
downburst winds. What showers or storms do develop should taper off
again around sunset. Thanks to this morning`s cloud cover and
abundant surface moisture,, below normal temperatures stick around
for one more day, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
High pressure begins to settle in across the Southern Plains
Saturday, bringing clearing skies and a warming trend. Temperatures
return to near-normal values.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
A ridge of high pressure builds in over the central CONUS this
weekend, and stubbornly sticks around through the coming work-week.
The center of the high is expected to remain over the Southern
Plains, keeping things warm and quiet through the end of the
forecast period. Temperatures are expected to run a few degrees
above normal, with highs generally in the upper 90s to low 100s, and
heat index values of 100-107. Precipitation chances will be near-
zero through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
This morning`s MVFR ceilings have scattered out, with scattered to
broken upper level clouds and VFR conditions prevailing through the
afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop
around 12z tomorrow morning, and should scatter out again somewhere
around 16z. This afternoon, through 00z, south winds at 5-10 knots
with gusts of 20-25 knots are expected. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the D10 airspace this afternoon,
but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 74 94 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 76 96 76 97 / 10 10 0 0
McKinney 76 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 78 96 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 75 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 94 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 94 73 96 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bealo
LONG TERM....Bealo
AVIATION...Bealo
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
