Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
916
FXUS64 KFWD 011059
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms in parts
of Central Texas today. Severe weather is not expected.
- Hot but less humid conditions are expected this weekend, with
rain-free weather prevailing through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Upstream convective activity along a southward moving cold front
has dissipated during the last few hours, with tranquil weather
expected for the remainder of the overnight period. The front
will make gradual progress through the forecast area today,
shifting winds to northerly while ushering in lower dewpoints for
much of North Texas to begin the weekend. For Central Texas, this
boundary will not arrive until later in the daytime, and some
convective activity in its vicinity will be a possibility. High-
based showery precip could begin as early as sunrise as mid-level
ascent from the front`s attendant upper trough axis interacts
with greater moisture content. Deeper convection may attempt to
develop immediately along the front later in the day aided by
diurnal destabilization, although the placement of the front
during this time frame remains uncertain. While a couple of
robust cells could materialize across our southeastern zones
roughly southeast of a Temple to Palestine line during peak
heating, it is more likely that convection along the front will
be predominantly south of the CWA.
The uncertainty in the surface front`s position through peak
heating also extends into today`s Heat Advisory decision. As is
typical for a mid-summer front, its passage will have a minuscule
impact on ambient temperatures, but it will usher in noticeably
less humid air which will remain in place for the proceeding
couple of days. For the majority of the area, significantly lower
dewpoints in the 50s will keep heat index values near actual
temperatures in the upper 90s this afternoon. The one exception to
this may end up being our far southeastern zones. If the front is
less effective at scouring moisture content from Central Texas or
stalls prior to advancing south of the CWA, then a few of our
southeastern counties could see heat index values surpass 105
again this afternoon. For now, will side with a slightly faster
and more aggressive moisture scouring, and will refrain from heat
headlines at this time. The front should push fully through the
area by Sunday, and this will result in the most pleasant day out
of the next several with high temperatures "only" reaching the
mid/upper 90s while dewpoints mix into the low/mid 50s area-wide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
A southerly flow regime will become reestablished heading into
the workweek as the weekend frontal boundary quickly washes out
and higher dewpoints gradually return northward. Building mid-
level heights will aid in sending temperatures back into the
triple digits which will persist through much of the upcoming
week. Moisture will still mix out rather aggressively for the
first few days of the extended forecast, with afternoon dewpoints
still even reaching the 50s for portions of the area. However,
the hot temperatures will likely still allow Heat Advisory
thresholds to be met either by virtue of temperature criteria
(103F) or heat index criteria (105F). With the upper ridge and
subsidence in full control, rain chances will be nil through the
long term forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
Our well-advertised cold front is currently pushing through the
southern portions of the Metroplex with north-northwesterly winds
at 8-15 kts being observed behind the boundary. The front and
wind shift will reach KACT around 14Z-15Z this morning. Isolated
to scattered showers and even a couple thunderstorms have
developed ahead of this boundary in better quality moisture across
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. We will go ahead and add a
few hours of VCSH at KACT this morning. Additional scattered
convection is likely later this afternoon, but the bulk of this
activity will be well south of Waco Regional. Northerly winds will
lighten later this evening into tonight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 100 74 97 74 / 20 0 0 0
Paris 94 70 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 99 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 97 73 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 99 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 99 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 100 74 98 73 / 30 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 99 71 98 71 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
