Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
544
FXUS64 KFWD 091808
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms (10-20% chance) are possible south
of US-84 Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening.
- Hot and humid conditions will continue this week and into the
weekend with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices in the
100-107 range.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-60% chance) look to
return to the area this weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
Hot and muggy weather will continue across the region today into
tomorrow with high temperatures in the low and mid-90s. Dew points
in the low to mid-70s will result in heat indices ranging from
98-105 both afternoons. Despite an upper-level ridge overhead,
very isolated convection off the sea-breeze (10-20% coverage),
will be possible across Central Texas during the afternoon hours
today and tomorrow. The area most likely to see rain will be south
of US-84 and east of I-35.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
...Thursday and Friday...
Thursday will see a slight uptick in heat and humidity with
afternoon highs in the mid-90s and peak heat indices ranging from
100-107. Thursday night, a weakening cold front will approach the
area from the north. While the front itself likely won`t push
south of the Red River, scattered showers and thunderstorms
associated with this system may move into locations north of I-20
late Thursday night into Friday morning. The greatest rain chances
(50-60%) will be north of Highway 380. By Friday, even though a
few isolated showers and storms may linger into the early part
of the afternoon (10-30% chance), most will see another hot and
humid day with highs in the 90s and heat indices ranging from
98-107 (greatest around the DFW Metroplex and the Brazos Valley).
...Saturday through Monday...
A more robust trough is expected to dig southwards across the
Great Plains this weekend as a late-season cold front plunges
south into the area. Though the southward extent of this front and
how much temperatures will drop behind it are still uncertain,
there is general consensus amongst medium range guidance that a
more unsettled period of weather can be expected this weekend into
early next week with the potential for several rounds of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Furthermore, the warm and
unstable airmass ahead of the cold front in conjunction with
slightly stronger shear than what is normal this time of year
may yield a few stronger/severe storms capable of hail and/or
strong winds. Ahead of the front, moisture pooling (dew points in
the mid-70s) in conjunction with highs in the mid to upper-90s may
also result in heat indices in the 100-110 degree range. As such,
those with outdoor plans should continuously monitor both the
heat and storm potential this upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
There is some uncertainty in MVFR coverage and persistence across
TAF sites late tonight and tomorrow morning, particularly in the
Metroplex. As such, Metroplex TAF sites have been changed to only
TEMPO in MVFR cigs. Further south across Central Texas (KACT),
there is more confidence in persistent MVFR cigs (70-80% chance),
so will keep a FM group for now. By the end of the TAF period,
gusty winds will return to TAF sites with gusts 20-25 kts.
Otherwise, VFR and south flow will prevail.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 94 78 96 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 75 91 77 94 / 0 10 0 0
Paris 75 92 78 92 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 77 93 79 95 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 77 92 78 94 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 77 93 79 97 / 0 10 0 0
Terrell 75 91 77 95 / 0 10 0 0
Corsicana 76 92 77 96 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 76 91 76 94 / 0 20 0 10
Mineral Wells 74 94 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
