Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
293
FXUS64 KFWD 111055
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will continue this week and into the
weekend with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices in the
100-107 range.
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely near the
Red River late Thursday night into Friday morning.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (50-80% chance) look
to return to the area Sunday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Another hot, breezy, and muggy day is expected Thursday with
afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s and heat index
values rising into the 98-106 degree range. Make sure that you are
taking the proper steps to keep you and your loved ones safe from
heat-related illnesses. Isolated seabreeze showers and storms may
once again push northwestward into parts of the Brazos Valley late
Thursday afternoon, but most locations will remain dry.
By late Thursday, mid/upper troughing will lead to surface
pressure falls over the Central Plains. The surface low will
shift northeast toward the Great Lakes Thursday night dragging a
cold front south toward the Red River late Thursday night into
Friday morning. This frontal boundary will likely stall near or
just north of the Red River by 3-5AM Friday morning, but it will
likely provide a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms
across our top two tiers of counties north of I-20 through midday
Friday. The threat for severe weather or heavy rainfall remains on
the lower end, but a few observations of gusty downburst winds
cannot be ruled out. We will be monitoring for any additional
thunderstorm development along remnant outflow boundaries Friday
afternoon which may pose more of an isolated damaging wind threat
(~20% chance). Otherwise, expect most locations south of I-20 to
rise into the low to mid 90s Friday afternoon with several
locations north of I-20 struggling to escape the upper 80s due to
the passing outflow boundary and increased cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Rather benign, but hot, weather is expected Saturday as weak
ridging redevelops over North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 90s across much of the region with heat
indices approaching 100-108 degrees late in the afternoon on
Saturday. A Heat Advisory will likely be considered in future
forecast updates for parts of our forecast area.
By Sunday, a troughing pattern will settle over the Plains with
several embedded shortwaves shifting over North Texas setting the
stage for a more active early week period. Another front is set
to shift toward the Red River by midday Sunday which will provide
a focus for scattered thunderstorm development amidst a pool of
1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE ahead of the boundary. The forward movement
of this front has sped up some compared to previous forecasts and
may dictate whether we see a more active Sunday afternoon/evening
vs. a more active Sunday night with storms coming out of
Oklahoma. Therefore, keep up to date with the forecast as we hash
out these timing differences and get a better idea to when
thunderstorms will occur Sunday. Nonetheless, the environment will
support a severe wind threat, especially along and north of I-20
where slightly more favorable wind shear may support storm
organization.
Monday`s thunderstorm potential will be largely dependent on how
the Sunday/Sunday night convection materializes. However, the
greatest thunderstorm chances on Monday (60-80% chance) will
likely occur across parts of Central Texas where lingering outflow
boundaries would likely reside. We will carry low storm chances
into Tuesday before drier air settles in and ends any additional
chances of rain through the rest of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
A BKN deck of MVFR cigs will remain over much of North and Central
Texas through 14Z-15Z this morning before scattering and lifting
to VFR status. South winds near 15 kts gusting to 25-30 kts at
times will prevail throughout the day diminishing to 10-12 kts
after sunset. Another round of MVFR cigs is expected after 09Z-10Z
early Friday morning. Looking ahead, scattered showers and storms
along and ahead of a cold front will push toward the Red River
Valley region early Friday morning. Most of this activity will
remain north of the Metroplex terminals through the morning hours,
but we will need to monitor for any additional isolated
thunderstorm development near remnant outflow boundaries in the
afternoon (less than a 20% chance of terminal impacts).
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 79 93 79 / 0 30 20 0
Waco 93 77 94 77 / 10 10 10 0
Paris 91 76 89 76 / 0 60 50 0
Denton 93 78 91 79 / 0 40 30 0
McKinney 92 78 90 79 / 0 40 30 0
Dallas 94 79 94 80 / 0 20 20 0
Terrell 92 77 93 77 / 10 10 20 10
Corsicana 94 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 0
Temple 93 77 94 75 / 10 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 95 76 92 77 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
