Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
149
FXUS64 KFWD 052336
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A an isolated shower or storm may develop this evening.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening
will bring a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a
couple of tornadoes across parts of North and Central TX.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to bring a threat
for severe weather and flash flooding this weekend and into next
week, especially Saturday and Tuesday-Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
An unsettled weather pattern remains in place across the region
with a few more rounds of showers and storms as we wrap up the
week. We`re still monitoring the potential for severe storms and
locally heavy rain tomorrow afternoon through Friday night.
For the rest of today, surface analysis show a warm front just
north of the Red River with a dryline well to our west in West
Texas (near the NM/TX border). In the mid-upper levels, a
positively tilted trough remains over the western U.S. keeping the
southwesterly flow and broad ascent over much of the southern
Plains. Breezy southerly winds in the lower levels will help
support WAA showers and isolated storms later this afternoon and
evening, particularly near the Red River. Additional storms may
try to sneak into our western counties tonight but the overall
thinking is that they will weaken/dissipate as they approach our
region. The rest of the night should be dry, but the breezy
southerly winds will persist through tomorrow along with the
return of low clouds.
As the upper trough begins to eject to the northeast tomorrow, the
surface low/cold front will shift eastward toward the TX/OK
Panhandle. The progression of the surface feature will be fairly
slow during the day but we will likely see another round of warm
advection showers and isolated storms ahead of the front in the
afternoon and evening. The severe weather risk for our area hasn`t
changed much from the previous forecasts with the greatest risk
generally along and north of I-20 towards the northeast. Latest
guidance continues to show favorable low-level and deep layer shear
profiles with sufficient instability in place. Forecast soundings
also suggest sufficient hodograph curvature for low level
rotation and large hail potential (with hail up to 2"). This may
increase the tornado potential for our area. What remains
uncertain is how far south into our area these discrete cells will
develop and how fast the atmosphere is able to destabilize during
the day. As the front continues to push south and approaches our
area Friday night, coverage of showers and storms along the front
will increase. The potential for severe weather is expected to
decrease during the night as the winds veer to the southwest but
the potential for locally heavy rain and flooding may increase and
continue on Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Our weather will remain fairly active over the weekend with
widespread showers and a few storms on Saturday and additional
rain chances on Sunday. The cold front will continue its way
across the region on Saturday, slowing down as it moves towards
Central Texas. Depending on where the front stalls is where the
highest coverage of showers/storms will be. While we can`t rule
out a strong storm or two over Central Texas on Saturday, the main
concern will be the potential for flash flooding. Most of the
models are highlighting high PWs which will result in very
efficient rainfall rates. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" are
expected across parts of Central and East Texas with localized
3-4+" possible along and south of I-20 through Sunday. Rain
chances will decrease for North Texas on Sunday as the front
remains nearly stationary over our southern counties.
Additional rain and storm chances are expected early next week as
the previously closed upper low across Baja California and
northern Mexico begins to shift eastward. We`re still watching
the potential for another round of severe weather and heavy rain
on Tuesday as the storm system moves over our state. Details on
timing and progression are still uncertain and will continue to be
adjusted. The good news is that we could see rain chances end
late Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low finally exits to
our east.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
A few convective attempts have gone up late this afternoon across
D10 with no impacts other than some very brief light rain before
dissipating. The gusts of 25-30 kts from today will diminish this
evening with sustained speeds still around 15 kts overnight. MVFR
will move in once again with arrival at D10 sites likely ~09Z,
and Waco a bit earlier at ~07Z. These cigs will lift and scatter
around midday/early afternoon with isolated showers developing as
early as mid-morning across North and Central TX. Scattered
storms are more likely to develop in the afternoon and evening
with the highest coverage anticipated near and north of the
Metroplex. Have left ACT with VCSH through the period due to lower
confidence in storm coverage, and introduced VCTS from ~19Z to
22Z for D10. Confidence in direct impacts at any site is low, but
trends are high enough to warrant a VCTS this issuance and refine
in future TAFs.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected today. Activation may be
requested again late Friday into Saturday. Stay up-to-date with
the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 67 81 58 / 50 20 80 70
Waco 81 67 81 65 / 40 10 60 60
Paris 78 64 80 60 / 60 30 70 90
Denton 78 65 79 53 / 50 30 80 60
McKinney 78 66 80 58 / 50 30 80 70
Dallas 80 67 81 60 / 50 20 80 70
Terrell 80 66 82 61 / 40 20 70 80
Corsicana 83 68 85 65 / 30 10 60 70
Temple 82 67 83 65 / 40 10 50 60
Mineral Wells 80 65 81 52 / 50 30 70 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Gordon
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
