Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
483
FXUS64 KFWD 201127
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
seasonably cool temperatures continuing through Thursday.
- An arctic intrusion will bring dangerously cold temperatures
and impactful wintry precipitation starting Friday, continuing
into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
A chilly night is unfolding across the region in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front, with temperatures expected to bottom out
in the 20s to mid 30s by daybreak. Wind speeds will gradually
decrease through the remainder of the night, so wind chills will
remain within a couple degrees or so of actual temperatures.
Nonetheless, you`ll certainly want to bundle up before heading
out the door this morning! Cool but seasonable weather will
prevail throughout the day today, with afternoon highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.
Southerly low-level winds will return to the region later this
morning as a shortwave trough approaches. As a result, moisture
will steadily increase this afternoon through Tuesday night. A
weak cold front will be nearing our northern border early
Wednesday morning. Ahead of the front, strengthening warm air
advection will result in the development of scattered showers
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Showers will increase in
coverage as the front approaches and eventually moves through the
area on Wednesday. Rainfall rates are expected to remain rather
light, with only a low potential for thunder in Central Texas. The
bulk of the rain chances will be confined to areas along and east
of I-35, tapering off from west to east with the passage of the
front throughout the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
Wednesday`s cold front will have little effect on our sensible
weather, other than to shave a couple degrees off of high
temperatures on Thursday, mainly across North Texas. Expect
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s near the Red River to mid
60s in Central Texas.
Big changes will be on the way as we head into Friday, as a very
strong cold front will move into the region from Oklahoma as early
as late Thursday night/early Friday morning. As the front enters
the area, overrunning is expected to quickly develop as the first
of several shortwaves moves overhead. This will result in the
development of widespread precipitation early Friday morning which
will continue throughout the day. At this time, it still looks
like temperatures will remain well above freezing for much of the
day, keeping any precipitation in liquid form. This will change as
we get later into the day, with frozen precipitation becoming
increasingly likely heading into the evening/overnight hours
Friday night as temperatures fall below freezing. The precise
timing of this transition remains uncertain since we are still
several days out. While latest guidance still indicates the
transition to frozen precipitation will most likely occur after
sunset Friday evening, there remains a low potential for an
earlier transition Friday afternoon/evening, which could impact
the evening commute. This will certainly be an important detail to
monitor over the next few days.
As we head into the Friday night/Saturday time period, confidence
in the potential for wintry weather and associated impacts across
the region continues to increase. Widespread wintry precipitation
is expected to develop Friday night into Saturday morning, as
temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the teens to mid 20s
for most of the area. Impacts to roads and infrastructure will
likely begin Friday night, especially across North Texas where
temperatures will be coldest. Conditions are not expected to
improve much on Saturday and could continue to deteriorate
throughout the day, as most locations will not see temperatures
climb above freezing with additional rounds of precipitation
expected to develop. Precipitation type currently looks to be a
bit messy, as a warm nose is expected to exist just above the
surface. This will likely result in a wintry mix for most of the
area, with a transition to snow likely occurring somewhere
near/north of the Highway 380 corridor. Precise amounts for any
snow and/or ice accumulations are still too uncertain to pinpoint
this far out since the location of any transition zones will
ultimately determine these details. Therefore, be cautious with
any accumulation information and precipitation type forecasts, as
these details are certainly still subject to see significant
changes over the next few days.
Any wintry precipitation should gradually taper off Saturday
afternoon, though some of the latest guidance carries some low
chances for additional wintry precipitation through Saturday
night. By Sunday, no precipitation is expected, but very cold
temperatures will certainly be a concern. Overnight lows are
expected to plummet into the teens for most areas Saturday night,
with our northwestern zones likely seeing lows in the single
digits. A steady north breeze will result in wind chills near
zero Sunday morning. Any winter weather impacts will likely
linger into Sunday, with temperatures only forecast to reach into
the low to mid 30s at this time. Fortunately, we should at least
have some sunshine to assist with thawing out any lingering snow
and/or ice, but any liquid left on the roadways at the end of the
day will have a high likelihood of refreezing Sunday night,
potentially resulting in impacts to the Monday morning commute.
Given the expected cold and potential for wintry weather, stay
weather aware and up-to-date with the latest forecast this week
as many of the forecast details will likely change over the next
few days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
VFR conditions will prevail today with north winds shifting out of
the south later this morning. Wind speeds will be between 5 to 10
knots throughout the period. Cloud cover will increase through the
afternoon, with MVFR stratus expected to develop across the region
around 04-06Z tonight. Ceilings will likely deteriorate
overnight, potentially dropping into the IFR category closer to
daybreak Wednesday. IFR ceilings have been introduced to the KACT
TAF where confidence in IFR is highest, but might be needed for
some or all of the Metroplex sites in future issuances. Isolated
to scattered showers are expected to develop Wednesday morning,
though the majority of this activity will remain east of the TAF
sites. Given the probability of showers at any of the terminals is
low, have kept the TAFs precipitation-free at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 47 61 42 / 0 40 40 0
Waco 58 50 64 47 / 0 30 50 0
Paris 54 42 58 40 / 0 50 70 10
Denton 54 42 61 35 / 0 30 30 0
McKinney 55 44 61 40 / 0 40 50 10
Dallas 56 48 62 45 / 0 40 50 10
Terrell 57 45 61 42 / 0 50 70 10
Corsicana 61 50 64 47 / 0 40 80 10
Temple 58 49 66 46 / 0 30 40 0
Mineral Wells 56 43 64 37 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
