Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
582
FXUS64 KFWD 021906
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- 20-40% storm coverage is forecast today and Wednesday. A few
storms could produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts and
heavy rain, but widespread severe weather is not expected.
- Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
After a dry and warm start of the week, we`re switching back to a
more active period across the region. Latest radar and satellite
imagery show scattered showers and a few storms along and south
of a weak surface boundary located south of I-20 that extends
northeast toward the ArkLaTex. While most of the activity the
rest of the afternoon should generally remain along and south of
this boundary, areas north of this boundary may still see isolated
storms through the evening, given there`s still some weak ascent
in these areas. We continue to highlight the potential for a few
strong to marginally severe storms with damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rain as the main threats. Areas south of the DFW
Metroplex, generally south of I-20 and along and east of I-35 will
have the best potential to see any severe storm. However, we
can`t rule out a strong/severe storm a little farther to the north
of this area as well. Most showers and storms should diminish
during the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating, leaving
a quiet night for North and Central TX. Outside of the storms this
afternoon, hot and humid conditions will persist with highs in
the low to mid 90s and lows tonight in the 70s.
Tomorrow`s storm chances will be highly dependent on where today`s
surface boundaries stall in Central TX and how far east a dryline
advances. We will keep the mention of a few showers and storms
over our western and southern counties during the afternoon and
evening hours, but PoPs may need to be extended farther east in
future forecast updates. Otherwise, expect another warm and humid
day with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
The extended forecast will remain fairly unsettled with daily
chances for showers and storms through early next week. Latest
medium range guidance show more of the typical daytime scattered
rain and storms both Thursday and Friday. While areas across East
and Central TX will have the the best rain chances, we will keep
at least slight chance of rain in the forecast for much of North
and Central TX.
The next upper level system is expected to approach from the
Dessert Southwest late Friday and Saturday serving as a focus for
more widespread activity through the weekend. The severe risk is
lower at this time, but a few strong storms with gusty winds can`t
be ruled out. There will also be a threat for minor or localized
flash flooding over locations that receive slow moving storms or
multiple rounds of heavy rain. The combination of clouds and rain
should keep the daytime temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s over
the weekend.
Looking into early next week, coverage of showers and storms will
decrease with more isolated/scattered activity across the region.
As a result, temperatures will return to more seasonal averages
with widespread highs in the 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026
The main aviation concern for the afternoon continues to be the
potential for scattered storms to develop near the vicinity of the
TAF sites. This morning`s outflow boundary has moved south of the
North Texas sites, evident by the development of a few showers over
this area. While the best coverage the rest of the afternoon is
still expected to be south of the sites, we can`t rule out a few
storms to impact any of the sites from any outflow boundary. A
TEMPO TSRA has been added to account this potential.
In addition to the lightning and heavy rain/rapid visibility
drops, some of the stronger storms will have a potential to
produce severe wind gusts/microbursts. Most of the activity
should diminish after 02-03Z with VFR conditions expected through
the end of the period. Otherwise, surface winds will remain east-
northeast through Wednesday around 10 kts or less. Looking ahead,
we could see another round of scattered storms Wednesday afternoon
with the best coverage along the dryline over in West TX.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but reports of
hail, wind damage, strong to severe wind gusts, or flooding are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 75 89 72 / 30 20 10 10
Waco 93 72 89 70 / 40 40 20 30
Paris 90 70 87 69 / 20 10 0 10
Denton 92 73 88 70 / 20 10 10 10
McKinney 92 72 88 70 / 20 10 0 10
Dallas 95 75 89 73 / 30 20 10 10
Terrell 93 72 88 70 / 30 20 10 10
Corsicana 93 73 88 71 / 30 30 10 20
Temple 91 72 88 71 / 30 40 30 30
Mineral Wells 92 71 88 68 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
