Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
359
FXUS64 KFWD 241115
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
515 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An elevated wildfire threat will materialize today across North
Texas, particularly in the northwest due to gusty winds, above
normal temperatures, and low humidity.
- The elevated fire threat will continue Wednesday and Thursday,
but lower wind speeds will limit the overall threat.
- Warm and rain-free conditions continue the rest of the week with
no significant rain chances through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
A tranquil overnight period is unfolding across North and Central
Texas as the region remains planted between an upper-level ridge
to our southwest and an upper-level trough to our northeast.
Northwest winds aloft will continue to spread high-based cirrus
overtop the state going into this morning. Lighter winds and this
cloud cover will help to keep morning temperatures in the 30s and
40s. Mostly clear skies and continued southerly winds will push
afternoon temperatures into the 60s and 70s. To our north, a
minute disturbance will slide through the Southern Plains over the
day today, allowing a lee-side low to spread from the Panhandles
into North Texas. This will result in a tightened surface pressure
gradient across much of the region, and increase wind speeds and
gusts throughout the late morning and afternoon.
Gusty south winds with speeds between 15 to 25 mph and gusts up
to around 30 to 35 mph will be possible during the afternoon. In
areas near the I-35 corridor and further into northeast Texas, the
signal for winds 20-25 mph and gusts to around 35 mph is the
highest. In response we have issued a Wind Advisory for this area
from 12 PM today to 6 PM tonight. Make sure to secure outdoor
items that could blow away. Afternoon humidity today will
generally be between 25-35% for most of the region, but warm
temperatures, an abundance of dried fuels, and those gusty winds
will allow for an elevated fire weather threat, particularly
across portions of the northwest where humidity bottoms out closer
to 15-25%. Make sure to avoid fire starts as rate of spread will
be faster and any fires harder to contain.
Winds will remain breezy tonight, but will gradually decrease in
speed as we head into Wednesday as the surface low shifts further
south. Gusty winds in the afternoon will be more confined to
portions of Central Texas, while North Texas has a bit of a
reprieve. A much warmer day is forecast across the region for
tomorrow. Temperatures in the low-levels are expected to be at or
above the 90th climatological percentile. Efficient diurnal mixing
of these warmer temperatures down to the surface, as well as
continued southerly winds, will allow for temperatures to rise
into the mid 70s to mid 80s. There will be a concern for fire
starts for areas near and west of the I-35 corridor tomorrow,
where humidity drops to between 15-25%, but lower wind speeds will
preclude a more increased threat for grassfires. Nonetheless,
continue to avoid outdoor activities that could produce fire
starts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
By Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a digging shortwave
disturbance will be moving southeast through the Plains. This will
shunt a cold front south through the region over the day
Thursday. A lack of moisture ahead of the front will keep things
high and dry across our region, with the only noticeable effects
being a north wind shift and a few degrees shaved off of North
Texas`s high temperatures. Expect highs on Thursday to range from
the mid 70s in North Texas, to the low-mid 80s in Central Texas
where the front will not move through until later in the day.
Slightly "cooler", but still above normal conditions will persist
through the end of the week. Ridging will nudge into the region
this weekend, and with the return of southerly winds, will promote
a warming trend back into the 70s and 80s. It`ll take a couple
days before more abundant moisture advection ramps up, with better
Gulf moisture starting to stream up into the region by Monday.
Long-range guidance has a closed low near southern California
moving east, which may bring the return of rain chances early next
week. In this forecast update, rain chances for early next week
remain low at 20-30%.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Southerly winds will start to pick up in speeds over the next
several hours, becoming gusty by late morning. The strongest gusts
are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours,
generally between 18-00Z, where sustained speeds in excess of 20
KT and gusts between 30-35 KT will be most likely to occur. While
winds will decrease a few KT tonight, speeds and gusts will remain
elevated until closer to daybreak tomorrow morning, before
settling to sustained speeds around 15-17 KT with occasional gusts
the rest of the period. A surge of MVFR stratus is expected to
stream across portions of Central and East-Central Texas tomorrow
morning, but cigs at this time look to remain mainly east of ACT.
Have foregone putting MVFR in the TAF at this time, but will
continue to keep an eye on any increasing probabilities.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 72 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 68 52 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 73 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 71 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 73 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 71 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 74 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 74 54 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
TXZ093>095-103>107-117>123-131>135-143>146-157>159.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
