Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
948
FXUS64 KFWD 181810
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
110 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across North and
Central Texas this afternoon, as a Canadian airmass builds
southward into the region. Some of the storms could be strong
with hail and a gusty wind threat.
- Seasonably mild weather is expected through the middle of next
week.
- Daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Areas of rain, with embedded thunderstorms, continue to stream
across North Texas early this afternoon, roughly parallel with
the I-20 corridor. This activity is occurring in a zone of ascent
along a tight southwest to northeast-oriented 850-700 mb thermal
gradient. This axis of precipitation should shift southward and
slowly diminish in areal coverage through the mid to later afternoon/early
evening hours. Have kept fairly high pops from the I-20 corridor
southward, tapering to chance pops in the Central Texas counties
early this evening. Elevated instability is steadily diminishing
in our southern counties, but enough residual CAPE may exist to
promote some small hail with a strong storm or two this afternoon.
Subsidence aloft will build southward across our region tonight
as a large scale trough over the Plains/Great Lakes shifts
eastward, and ridging commences from our area westward. Clouds
will steadily erode from north to south late this afternoon
through the evening, yielding mostly clear skies tonight and
Sunday.
Strong, gusty north winds, coupled with chilly temps and
intermittent rain, have created raw conditions over our region
today. These winds should abate this evening, allowing overnight
lows to dip well down into the 40s areawide. A few spots near the
Red River may actually reach the upper 30s, which is at least 10
degrees below normal for this point in April. Daytime highs Sunday
afternoon will rebound into the lower 70s under sunny skies,
leading to a picture perfect spring day in North Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
The first half of the upcoming workweek will feature near
normal daytime temperatures, as a broad upper level ridge develops
over the middle of the CONUS. Guidance suggests that at least
one, possibly two transient waves will zip eastward across Central
Texas within the base of the ridge during the first half of the
week. Increased moisture transport from the south, and weak
forcing for ascent will lead to scattered showers, and possibly
thunderstorms, across the southern half of the area Monday night
through Tuesday evening. Based on ensemble solutions, significant
additional rainfall amounts are not expected with this next round
of preciptation.
A drier and warmer trend is expected through the late week, with
daytime temperatures returning to the 80s in most areas. By week`s
end, a southwesterly flow regime will become reestablished across
the Southern Plains as a split trough moves into the Northern
Rockies and Intermountain Region. Another round of shower and
thunderstorm activity returns to the eastern portions of North
Texas from late Friday into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Scattered showers and embedded elevated thunderstorms will
continue to move eastward across D10 through 21z. Instability
aloft is sparse, and thus any thunder that does occur should be
short lived. Most of the preciptation should shift southward out
of the D10 terminals by 20-21z. Otherwise, mostly VFR ceilings
will prevail through 02z, beyond which time a steady clearing
trend should occur.
Farther south, Waco will hold onto a chance of showers and
thunderstorms into the 00-01z timeframe. VFR cigs in this area
also erode through the evening, leading to mostly cleaer skies by
04z.
Steady north winds at speeds averaging 12-18 knots, gusting at
times in excess of 22 knots, will persist at all TAF sites
through 00z, beyond which time the pressure gradient should relax
and decouple, and the speeds should correspondingly abate. As
surface high pressure to our north shifts to our east on Sunday,
winds will begin to veer from a northerly to easterly direction
during the 14z-18z timeframe.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 74 52 75 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 45 72 50 70 / 30 0 0 10
Paris 42 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 40 72 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 43 72 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 48 74 51 76 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 43 73 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 46 75 50 76 / 30 0 0 0
Temple 47 73 51 70 / 40 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 40 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
