Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
258
FXUS64 KFWD 150702
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
102 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be elevated fire weather concerns again Friday
afternoon owing to dry and windy conditions.
- Low rain chances (15-30%) return to portions of East and Central
Texas mid-week next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 101 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Surface ridging will gradually slide eastward this morning and
into this afternoon as pressure falls develop over the Central
Plains shifting current northwesterly winds back out of the
southwest during the day. This return to south-southwesterly
boundary-layer flow will begin west of I-35 where afternoon highs
will tick into the mid to upper 60s, potentially approaching 70
degrees west of Highway 281. This southwesterly shift will be
delayed for locations east of I-35 where temperatures will
struggle to escape the 50s this afternoon. Sunny skies this
afternoon will remain clear into the overnight with increasing
southerly flow moderating overnight lows in the 40s across most of
North and Central Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
The next cold front is slated to arrive in North Texas early
Friday as mid/upper troughing amplifies over the center of the
country. Unfortunately, this frontal passage is expected to remain
dry as well with the best lift and moisture residing well
northeast of our forecast area. However, fire weather concerns
will increase Friday afternoon as sustained north winds at 15-25
mph gusting to 35 mph at times overlap with a dry airmass
characterized by minimum relative humidity in the 15-30% range.
Although area-wide cool temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s
will settle over much of the area Friday afternoon, care should
still be taken to avoid any new fire starts in finer fuels.
A chilly weekend is in store behind the Friday cold front with
widespread afternoon highs in the 40s on Saturday and the 50s on
Sunday. The coldest morning of the next seven days will fall on
Sunday morning when widespread temperatures drop into the 20s,
including within the Metroplex. The forecast remains dry until
Wednesday-Thursday of next week when extended ensemble and
deterministic guidance highlights increasing moisture and ascent
over the state of Texas. Fingers are crossed for some widespread wetting
rainfall, but right now we will maintain the best chances
(20-30%) across parts of Central and East Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all North
and Central Texas terminals. North-northwest winds AOB 10 kts will
gradually back out of the southwest after sunrise Thursday
morning. Occasional gusts up to 15 kts are likely through the
remainder of the day with breezy south-southwest winds continuing
into the overnight. Looking ahead, a cold front will push into
North Texas Friday morning bringing another round of strong
northerly winds.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 44 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 60 45 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 53 39 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 60 38 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 57 41 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 60 46 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 57 40 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 60 44 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 62 42 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 67 41 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
