Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
367
FXUS64 KFWD 110016
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A more organized round of thunderstorms is expected this afternoon
as a cold front moves into the region. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the primary hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
As of the early afternoon, the main surface features are coming
into better focus despite the convective clutter from this
morning, with a weak low over northwest Texas, a dryline extending
southward toward the Big Bend, and a cold front/outflow composite
boundary stretched from western North Texas into southern
Oklahoma. Closer to home, two rounds of morning convection have
pushed a reinforced outflow boundary through most of central and
eastern North Texas, generally along and east of US-81 and north
of the I-20 corridor. This has complicated the severe weather
forecast for most of the Metroplex and our northeastern counties,
where the near surface airmass may have limited time to
destabilize ahead of the surface boundary. Farther south and
west, however, skies have cleared more efficiently and the warm
sector remains much more favorable for robust redevelopment this
afternoon.
The primary corridor of concern has shifted south and west of the
Metroplex, roughly from the Big Country into western North and
Central Texas, where the warm sector remains relatively untouched.
This is where stronger heating will overlap the dryline/front
intersection, the southward-sagging composite boundary, and the
southern fringe of stronger mid-level flow. This morning`s
sounding is our best snapshot at the airmass the storms will be
working with today: a sufficiently moist boundary layer with steep
lapse rates above it and more than enough elevated instability to
support intense updrafts once parcels can be lifted through any
remaining inhibition. Continued heating south of the outflow
boundary will allow instability to increase through mid afternoon,
with the better buoyancy becoming focused south and west of the
Metroplex.
The storms that are developing now near the sagging front or
dryline/front intersection should briefly remain separated enough
to take advantage of the larger hail environment. Large hail will
be possible with the strongest early storms, and a few hail stones
larger than 2 inches can`t be ruled out where updrafts remain
more isolated. A brief tornado threat also exists, mainly west and
southwest of the Metroplex where surface winds retain more of an
easterly component near the boundary and low-level shear is
locally enhanced. This is not a classic tornado setup, but the
boundary itself will need to be watched closely through the first
few hours of storm development.
The storm mode should become increasingly messy by late afternoon
and early evening as new development fills in along the boundary
and individual cold pools begin to merge. Once this happens, the
main threat will transition from hail to damaging winds as a more
organized line or bowing complex dives south and southeast into
Central Texas. The environment supports a strong cold pool, and a
few higher-end wind gusts are possible where the line becomes
most organized. The most focused damaging wind threat should occur
late this afternoon through mid evening, especially south of I-20
and west of I-35. Farther east, the severe threat is more
conditional due to the earlier outflow and lingering cloud cover,
but a few strong storms may still occur if enough heating can take
place ahead of the advancing line.
The severe threat will gradually diminish late tonight as the
line continues south of the forecast area and the boundary layer
stabilizes. Some trailing showers and a few elevated storms may
linger overnight into early Monday, mainly across our eastern and
southeastern counties, but the severe threat should be decreasing
by that point. Behind the front, Monday will be noticeably cooler
and drier with north winds and highs generally in the 70s. Any
lingering rain chances should end from northwest to southeast
through the morning, leaving quiet weather for the rest of the
day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Quiet weather will settle in Monday night as the cold front exits
well to our southeast and weak surface high pressure spreads
across the Southern Plains. The post-frontal airmass won`t be
especially cool for mid May, but it will be noticeably less humid
with lows falling into the 50s and lower 60s Tuesday morning.
Weak ridging aloft will begin building over Texas through Tuesday
and Wednesday, allowing temperatures to recover quickly. Highs
should return to the upper 80s and lower 90s by midweek as
southerly flow becomes re-established.
The midweek pattern will remain fairly benign, with North and
Central Texas sitting beneath weak ridging and only subtle flow
aloft. Low-level moisture will gradually return, but meaningful
ascent will be lacking keeping things warm and dry. By late week,
the pattern will become a bit more uncertain but still doesn`t
show a strong signal for returning rain chances. Southerly flow
will continue to pull richer boundary layer moisture back into the
region while weak disturbances may pass through the Southern
Plains. The problem is forcing. Without a stronger shortwave, a
well-defined front, or a sharper dryline pushing into the area,
any rain chances would likely be tied to more subtle mesoscale
features that are difficult to resolve several days out. Low PoPs
may eventually be needed late week into next weekend, but
confidence in coverage remains low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
MVFR/IFR conditions with east/northeast winds expected for the
first few hours of the TAF period at all airports as showers and
thunderstorms continue to move across the area. Activity should
move east of airports near/after 03Z with a return to VFR
conditions tonight along with a switch to north winds. Models
indicate MVFR cigs possible Monday morning between 09-15Z but
appears too uncertain to include in TAFs at the moment.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening.
Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of
hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 77 61 82 / 70 10 0 0
Waco 64 76 61 81 / 100 10 0 0
Paris 61 75 55 79 / 60 20 0 0
Denton 59 77 57 81 / 70 10 0 0
McKinney 61 76 57 81 / 70 10 0 0
Dallas 63 77 61 82 / 70 10 0 0
Terrell 62 75 57 80 / 70 20 0 0
Corsicana 65 77 61 82 / 70 20 0 0
Temple 65 78 62 83 / 100 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 58 77 56 82 / 90 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
