Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
111
FXUS64 KFWD 162331
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid weather will prevail during the middle of this
week, with heat index values of 100 to 105 on Wednesday and 105
to 110 on Thursday.
- The arrival of another front late Thursday and Friday will bring
additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the
area for the end of the workweek and the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Most of North and Central Texas will remain rain-free through the
forecast period as the region remains on the subsident side of
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which is expected to translate
over the northwestern Gulf towards Louisiana. The exception will
be across the far southeastern portions of Central Texas, where
isolated to scattered showers may continue into the evening hours.
Any activity should come to an end with daytime heating.
Another round of stratus clouds should develop tonight across
the region, which will result in a mild night with lows in the
low to mid 70s. Patchy fog may develop tonight across portions of
Central Texas, but should dissipate by early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds increase by mid to late morning across North Texas
in response to a tightening pressure gradient, with sustained
winds around 10-15 MPH and gusts up to 20-25 MPH. Winds should be
lighter across Central Texas, although occasional gusts to 15 MPH
cannot be ruled out through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, the
combination of high humidity and temperatures in the upper 80s and
low 90s will result in heat index values ranging from 98-105
degrees Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
High humidity and above normal temperatures will result in
oppressive heat on Thursday region wide. Highs are expected to
range from the mid to upper 90s across most of the region, with
portions of the Big Country reaching the triple digits. In
combination with dew points in the low to mid 70s, widespread
triple digit heat index values near and upwards of 105 degrees are
expected during the afternoon hours on Thursday.
A cold front is expected to approach North Texas by late Thursday
night or early Friday morning, which will bring another round of
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with a primary threat of
heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. There is still uncertainty
in this set up, including the timing of when the slow-moving cold
front approaches the region, and how far south the front tracks
across the region. Precipitation chances may linger into the
weekend depending on if/where the front stalls, with a continued
threat for heavy rainfall given the presence of high moisture
content. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected through
the first half of the weekend before a warm up begins.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Convection associated with a tropical system along the Texas
Coastal Bend is expected to remain south of all TAF sites, with
the possible exception of a few rain showers around the Waco area.
Ridging aloft will build in from the west over the next 24 hours,
keeping overall quiet aviation weather in place through Wednesday.
The primary concern will be a return of low ceilings overnight
into Wednesday morning, with onset of MVFR around 07Z at KACT and
08-09Z in the DFW Metroplex. Conditions should lift back to VFR
16-18Z Wednesday. Light east to southeast winds tonight will
otherwise veer to the south and increase to 15-20kt on Wednesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 93 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 73 89 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 72 90 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 73 93 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 74 92 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 75 94 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 72 91 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 74 92 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 72 90 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 71 95 75 98 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Garcia
LONG TERM....Garcia
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
