Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

508
FXUS64 KFWD 191958
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
258 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.LONG TERM...
/Friday Night through Thursday/

The last remains of the surface reflection of Imelda will disperse
and continue to spread northward into the Plains on Friday night
taking the pool of higher moisture content with it. As it spreads
north, our rain chances will diminish into the nighttime hours.
The upper pattern will be dominated by ridging over the
southeastern U.S. while a more amplified trough will spread
through the mountainous West. The weekend should be primarily dry
and warm across North Texas, although rain chances will nudge
upward on Sunday as a stronger shortwave swings through the
Central Plains and sends a weak cold front southward. We`ll have
some low PoPs across our northwest counties near the weak frontal
boundary and across our southeast counties where some sea breeze
activity may spread northward.

As this disturbance moves eastward on Monday, stronger ridging
will overspread the region again. Monday may be the warmest day of
the next week with highs in the climbing back into the lower/mid
90s areawide. Additional low rain chances are expected in the
Tue/Wed timeframe as another trough digs into the southwestern
U.S.

Dunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/
/This Afternoon through Friday/

Objective surface analysis indicates that a weak tropical low (the
remnants of Imelda) was located between Palestine and Tyler during
the past few hours. Training thunderstorms continue across
Southeast Texas along a quasi-stationary convergence zone south of
the low pressure center, with little to no precipitation over
North and Central Texas for now.

The presence of low clouds may mitigate additional convective
development this afternoon for a good portion of the region. The
exception may be over the Central Texas counties where a lack of
low clouds will allow for destabilization and a few pop-up
thunderstorms this afternoon. Farther north, modest instability
should still develop by mid to late afternoon due to occasional
breaks in the clouds, and scattered showers remain possible
(mainly east of I-35) with an isolated thunderstorm or two. The
persistent deck of stratocumulus has warranted a downward
adjustment for temperatures, with afternoon highs in the 80s
expected north of a line from Graham to Palestine. Lower 90s
should be reached southwest of this line.

The tropical low will lift slowly northward tonight and tomorrow,
eventually shifting the better chances for rain northward into
Central and North Texas. The mesoscale band over southeast Texas
should eventually push offshore, but we will need to be on the
lookout for perhaps another rain band setting up somewhere across
the eastern half of the region late tonight into Friday. Moisture
convergence and instability will not be nearly as impressive as
what has transpired near the coast, but there could still be
locally heavy rain and isolated areas of flooding somewhere east
of the Interstate 35 corridor. Fortunately, the ground can take
quite a bit of rain at the moment, and flash flood guidance values
are high enough to preclude a Flash Flood Watch at this time. POP
grids for tonight through Friday range from likely across the
east to chance along I-35 to slight chance across the west,
primarily in the form of showers with isolated thunderstorms. The
better rain chances and higher rainfall totals will shift north
to near the Red River by Friday afternoon as the low continues
drifting northward with time.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1253 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/
/18Z TAFs/

The primary impact in the near-term with the tropical low over
Southeast TX is a persistent low cloud deck in the DFW Metroplex.
Boundary layer mixing has allowed these clouds to lift some,
which may allow a period of VFR cigs through the afternoon.
This would likely be followed by a return of MVFR this evening
with the loss of surface heating. A dry slot has resulted in VFR
at KACT through the morning, but strato-cumulus should thicken
into a MVFR/VFR cig this afternoon. Scattered showers remain
possible this afternoon, but better chances for convection will
occur tonight through Friday as a zone of low level moisture
convergence shifts northward along the the remnant tropical
system. MVFR conditions with occasional showers and isolated
thunderstorms are hence expected late tonight through Friday
morning, and some activity may linger into Friday afternoon.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  92  74  90  74 /  40  60  10   5   0
Waco                75  91  74  92  72 /  30  40   5  10   0
Paris               70  82  71  85  71 /  70  70  20  10   5
Denton              71  90  74  90  73 /  40  60  10   5   5
McKinney            72  89  73  89  72 /  50  70  10  10   5
Dallas              75  92  75  90  74 /  50  60  10   5   5
Terrell             74  90  74  90  73 /  60  70   5   5   0
Corsicana           75  92  72  88  71 /  40  60   5   5   0
Temple              75  91  73  90  71 /  30  30   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       72  91  71  90  71 /  20  40  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

91

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion