Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
704
FXUS64 KFWD 171048
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very isolated thundershowers may occur east of I-35 this
afternoon.
- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue into this weekend,
particularly along and west of the I-35 corridor.
- Slightly cooler weather and low rain chances return late Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Skies are mostly clear this Thursday morning as North Texas remains
under the influence of a 600dam subtropical high currently centered
over the Mississippi Valley per latest water vapor imagery. A few
cirrus clouds with origins over the Gulf are currently moving
into our eastern counties, coincident with a plume of relatively
higher PWAT values working in from the southeast.
Convective allowing guidance initiates sporadic thundershowers east
of I-35 this afternoon within the aforementioned plume of
slightly better moisture. However, as the ridge axis moves west
during the day, associated height rises will manifest subsident
drying and increasing 700mb warm nosing. In tandem with a decrease
in surface dewpoints via diurnal mixing, parcels will find
themselves competing against increasing SB and ML CINH. In
combination with a lack of any obvious mesoscale forcing
mechanisms, expectations are for any activity to remain very brief
and isolated in nature.
The ridge will take on an increasingly asymmetric appearance as it
translates west, finding itself wedged between a cutoff low over the
northwestern CONUS, an easterly upper-level low over Florida, and
an amplifying shortwave over Quebec. By Saturday, the
aforementioned cutoff low will devolve into an open trough and
will be displaced east, downstream of a secondary shortwave over
the Pacific. As this occurs, the global models depict a weakening
of the subtropical high`s 500mb heights down to ~592dam by
Saturday evening. Highs will still be well-above average around
100F, but slightly lower surface dewpoints will keep us below Heat
Advisory criteria. With that "good news" comes a continued
heightened risk of grass fire starts, however.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Anomalously strong mid and upper level ridging will finally begin to
feel the squeeze by late Saturday as troughing spreads out of the
Intermountain West into the Plains and an upper low over the
northern Gulf tries to move westward. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should be ongoing well to the northwest of our CWA
late Saturday and Sunday associated with the trough moving into the
Plains and a broad frontal zone extending northward into the Upper
Midwest. We`ll still remain hot on Sunday with highs near 100 again,
but the frontal boundary will begin to sag southward Sunday night
into Monday as the southern extent of the trough axis swings through
the Southern Plains. It remains a little uncertain how far south the
front will make it, but significantly cooler air will remain
displaced well to the north. With the boundary lingering on Monday
somewhere across the region and a fairly deep plume of moisture
pooled along the boundary, we should see an increase in at least
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This trend should
continue into the middle part of the week. Widespread wetting
rainfall doesn`t appear likely at this time, but a notable increase
in cloud cover and at least some rain around will result in
temperatures several degrees cooler with readings in the low to mid
90s. Ridging does appear to strengthen again toward the latter half
of the week which will continue to support above normal
temperatures and low rain chances.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Very isolated thundershowers will be possible this afternoon along
and east of I-35. Expected coverage is too low to warrant TAF
inclusion at this time.
As the subtropical ridge expands west, mid-level flow above Waco
will take on more of an easterly component compared to that above
D10. As daytime heating ensues and the boundary layer deepens,
some of this mid-level easterly momentum will be brought down,
resulting in slightly greater backing of the surface winds at
KACT. While wind speeds will be generally less than 10 kts, the
magnitude of directional fluctuation (140-160 this morning,
110-130 this afternoon, 170-200 tonight) warranted attention.
Otherwise, expect diurnal cumulus of bases ~7 kft and a few cirrus
~25 kft.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 79 100 77 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 100 75 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 97 74 99 73 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 99 77 100 75 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 99 75 99 74 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 99 80 100 77 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 100 75 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 99 75 99 72 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 98 74 99 71 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 99 73 99 71 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
