Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
839
FXUS64 KFWD 280503
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1203 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and cloudy conditions will continue today following
yesterday`s strong cold front.
- Temperatures will return to above normal Sunday through early
next week, with no chance for rain through Monday.
- A pattern change will allow daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to return from Tuesday through next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Widespread post-frontal stratus will result in overcast skies
through most of today, as southeasterly 850mb flow supports
overrunning and isentropic ascent. This will also allow for very
light rain showers and perhaps some drizzle through this morning,
and this will be most likely from North Texas southwestward
towards the Hill Country. Since the potential for measurable rain
is very low, PoPs will be held to no more than 20-30% through the
morning. The potential for rain will gradually end heading into
the afternoon, with some partial clearing across East Texas. High
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s thanks to
the cloudy skies.
A return to southeasterly surface flow tonight and gradually
clearing skies will lead to a pronounced warmup on Sunday. Highs
will be 20-25 degrees warmer than today due to warm advection and
insolation, with readings in the upper 70s and 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
It will be a warm and dry start to the workweek with a renewed
warm advection regime and steady low-level moisture return.
Relatively zonal flow will prevail aloft, with subtle height rises
further contributing to a warming trend and above normal
temperatures through Tuesday. Tuesday`s highs will likely be as
much as 15-20 degrees above normal, mainly in the upper 80s and
lower 90s.
Recent guidance has arrived at a more consistent solution for a
pattern shift and attendant dryline/frontal intrusion Tuesday
into Wednesday. This will be the result of a lead shortwave
disturbance preceding a much deeper longwave trough which is set
to invade the western half of the CONUS during the second half of
the week. The lead disturbance on Tuesday should be capable of
igniting shower and thunderstorm activity along a cold
front/dryline triple point across West Texas and Oklahoma which
would advance into our area later in the afternoon or evening.
While it`s still too soon to dive into specifics, the overall
shear/instability parameter space currently appears supportive of
at least a low-end strong/severe threat. This system`s cold front
should be capable of dropping temperatures closer to normal
through the second half of the week. However, convective chances
won`t end with the front`s passage, as the much deeper trough
brings additional waves of ascent overhead during the following
few days. This much more active pattern could be capable of
delivering much-needed rainfall given the dry start to the season,
although it will also likely be accompanied by springtime
convective hazards.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Widespread post-frontal stratus is beginning to lift to VFR
heights as of 05z, and VFR cigs at 4-5 kft will prevail through
the vast majority of the TAF period. Light rain has been very
infrequently observed, and have omitted any mention of
precipitation through the overnight and early morning period.
North wind speeds will steadily decrease during the next 12 hours,
and will return to easterly by midday and eventually
southeasterly this evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 53 58 52 / 20 20 0 0
Waco 80 54 60 50 / 10 20 10 0
Paris 72 51 62 50 / 20 10 0 0
Denton 70 51 58 48 / 20 20 0 0
McKinney 72 52 59 50 / 20 20 0 0
Dallas 74 53 60 53 / 20 20 0 0
Terrell 74 53 61 50 / 20 20 0 0
Corsicana 81 54 61 52 / 10 20 0 0
Temple 82 52 60 50 / 0 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 68 51 56 46 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
