Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
292
FXUS64 KFWD 150016
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The threat for flash flooding is increasing across Central Texas
this evening and will continue through the overnight hours.
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected tonight.
- Generally rain free conditions are expected along and north of
I-20 tonight.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Radar and satellite data shows convective outflow and a frontal
boundary now south of the I-20 corridor pushing into Central TX
where a line of broken convection has developed over the last few
hours. Additional outflow from convection in southeast Texas is
also spreading northward into Central TX. This should really help
enhance low level convergence over the next few hours in an area
from Lampasas to Waco to Mexia. With PW values slightly above 2.1
inches derived by the GOES imager, rainfall rates may top 2-3
inches per hour in some of these cores where cloud top
temperatures are near -70C. With the area of enhanced low level
convergence expected to remain in place or only slightly sag
southward over the next few hours, the threat for at least
isolated instances of flash flooding will increase through the
late evening. We`ve expanded the Flood Watch a row of counties
northward mainly for this evening`s activity. Otherwise, only some
minor cosmetic changes to the PoPs were needed north of the
ongoing convective areas.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
In the wake of the convective complex that moved through much of
North Texas this morning, much of the area, particularly along and
north of the I-20 corridor, remains relatively cool and well
stabilized. As the afternoon progresses, the residual showers
across the northern counties should dissipate, and the regions of
clearing will increase in size. While any additional widespread
precipitation is unlikely before sunset, it`s possible enough
late day insolation will occur to induce some renewed
destabilization, and hence a few new additional showers or
perhaps thunderstorms. Have generally held PoPs in the 20-30%
range from I-20 northward. Otherwise, generally partly to mostly
sunny skies should be the rule, with temperatures in the rain-
cooled areas eventually rebounding into the upper 80s. In the
immediate Red River counties, readings will struggle just to reach
the lower 80s, making for a nice mid June afternoon.
South of the I-20 corridor, especially across the southern third
of our forecast area, a much warmer and more unstable airmass will
hold sway through the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue through sunset, with coverage ranging
from 40-50% across the area.
While a respite from widespread precipitation is expected across
all of North and Central Texas this evening, redevelopment of
showers and thunderstorms should begin to occur after midnight as
another subtle shortwave drops into the region, embedded in the
broad northwesterly flow regime dominating much of the Central
U.S. This synoptic scale lift will be augmented by lower and mid
level convergence occurring in the vicinity of a frontal zone
across Central Texas. Have depicted the highest PoPs across the
southern half of the forecast area from late tonight through the
morning hours Monday. The combination of this lift, accompanied by
high precipitable water values, creates the potential for heavy
rainfall overnight into Monday. Believe amounts for the most part
will remain in the 1 to 3 inch range across this area, but a few
spots may top out anywhere from 3 to 5 inches, particularly in the
belt between Lampasas, Temple and Centerville. With considerable
antecedent rainfall occurring in many of these area, have opted
to issue a Flood Watch for these counties from this evening
through Monday afternoon. Believe the greatest risk for heaviest
rainfall, and potential flash flooding, will exist from the pre-
dawn hours tomorrow morning through midday.
In contrast to the heavier rain threat across the south, the
counties north of I-20/I-30 will see less coverage Monday, and
lower PoPs are depicted in these areas as a result.
High temperatures areawide on Monday will top out anywhere from 5
to 10 degrees below normal for mid June, making for a reasonably
pleasant summer day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
Following a relatively cool and wet interval to start the upcoming
week, large-scale lift will diminish across the region, limiting
additional widespread rainfall and inducing a return to much
warmer, but more June-like temperatures through Thursday. High
temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 90s, with heat
indices exceeding 100 degrees in many areas by Thursday.
Another period of lift, associated with renewed troughing and the
potential approach of a weak cold front, will create a renewed
opportunity for shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and
Saturday. Coverage will likely be greatest across Central Texas,
in closer proximity to any enhanced moisture associated with the
disturbed weather expected in the northwest Gulf this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026
A frontal boundary is now south of the D10 airspace with all
convection south of the major airports. Some MVFR cigs were
present in the post frontal air, but these have generally gone VFR
over the last hour. We`ll assess the need to remove the TEMPO for
MVFR through 3Z here shortly.
Otherwise, convection will be in and around Waco all evening and
night and will likely result in periodic IFR vis in heavy
rainfall.
Rain chances will tick upward closer to morning farther north in
the Metroplex, but this activity will generally be showers. MVFR
cigs are expected later tonight into Monday with cigs improving
late in the day.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 85 71 90 / 40 30 10 10
Waco 72 84 72 86 / 80 70 20 30
Paris 69 80 67 86 / 50 30 10 10
Denton 67 83 68 88 / 40 20 10 10
McKinney 69 82 69 87 / 40 30 10 10
Dallas 71 85 72 90 / 50 30 10 10
Terrell 70 84 70 88 / 50 40 20 20
Corsicana 72 84 73 88 / 60 70 20 30
Temple 73 83 72 86 / 80 80 30 30
Mineral Wells 67 83 67 89 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ142>144-147-148-
156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Dunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
