Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
370
FXUS64 KFWD 071115
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
515 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front today. A
few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are
possible. Heavy rain may also cause localized flooding.
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday
with an upper low and the next cold front. Some severe storms
will again be possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
A shortwave trough and Pacific cold front continue to produce
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the Heartland tonight.
Activity remained isolated across North Texas through the evening,
due to both the presence of a persistent cap, and the fact that
the better synoptic scale ascent remained well north of the Red
River. We are not finished quite yet, however, as the shortwave
will actually expand southwestward overnight while slowly dropping
southeast through the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley,
pushing a cold front through the region during the day Saturday.
Scattered showers and storms will form in the vicinity of the
front, first developing across the northwest zones now through 3
AM, spreading east through North Texas Saturday morning into the
early afternoon hours, then Central Texas this afternoon and
evening.
The resulting positive tilt of the disturbance aloft is not ideal
for the development of severe weather, but good instability and
40-50kt of effective shear will still support a few severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds will both be possible near and south
of the front, with large hail being the primary threat north of
the front. Convection will eventually exit into East and
Southeast Texas Saturday night, leaving Sunday mostly dry and
pleasant with highs in the lower 70s. One exception may be in the
Brazos Valley where a few lingering ran showers may keep high
temperatures in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
The next system to watch will be a closed upper low which will
begin the period over Baja California. A lead shortwave will
bring a brief round of showers and isolated storms Sunday night
into Monday. Severe weather is unlikely with this initial round,
but steep mid level lapse rates and the resulting 500-1000 J/KG of
elevated CAPE will support small hail in a few storms.
The upper low will begin its eastward advancement on Monday,
accelerating across northwest Mexico Monday night and reaching
West Texas on Tuesday. A Pacific front/dryline hybrid will become
a surface focus for thunderstorm development across the Big
Country Tuesday afternoon. Storms will most likely develop upscale
into a QLCS while entering western portions of North and Central
Texas Tuesday evening as the upper low encroaches from the west.
The line of storms will push east across the region along with the
upper low Tuesday night, exiting into East Texas Wednesday
morning.
Fortunately, the latest guidance is much more consistent
regarding the timing of the system compared to this time
yesterday, so POPs will be concentrated on Tuesday night. Deep
layer shear and instability will support a damaging wind threat,
particularly with any bowing segment which may occur. There
should also be at least a low-end tornado and large hail threat,
though model soundings indicate a veer/back profile which may work
against these developments. Either way, locally heavy rain could
also produce flooding in some areas, particularly those recently
affected by heavy rain. We should know more about the severe/flood
threats in the coming days as higher resolution model guidance
arrives.
Low POPs will extend into Wednesday as the core of the upper low
moves overhead, with all activity exiting to our east and south
(along with another cold front) by Wednesday night. Dry and
pleasant weather will follow for the end of next week and
potentially into the following weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
A broken band of showers and storms will work their way slowly
east and southeast through the DFW area over the several hours
along a cold front. Will start the 12Z TAFs off with VCSH, but
transition fairly quickly into VCTS at 13Z. A TEMPO group for TS
will remain in place from 13-15Z. Severe weather is unlikely, but
gusty winds and occasional cloud to ground lightning may
accompany these storms. Activity should make it to the Waco area
around 15Z, similar to the timing of TS ending in the Metroplex.
North winds will accompany the front, which should arrive around
13Z or shortly thereafter at the DFW area airports, but closer to
15Z at KACT. MVFR will otherwise improve to VFR this afternoon in
the Metroplex, but may linger into the evening at KACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across mainly Central Texas
this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 50 73 60 / 90 40 10 20
Waco 74 52 71 60 / 80 50 20 20
Paris 70 48 71 57 / 90 40 10 20
Denton 66 43 71 55 / 80 30 0 20
McKinney 68 47 72 58 / 90 40 10 20
Dallas 72 51 73 60 / 90 40 10 20
Terrell 73 50 72 58 / 80 50 10 30
Corsicana 77 54 73 62 / 70 60 20 20
Temple 75 52 71 60 / 70 60 30 20
Mineral Wells 65 45 73 55 / 90 30 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/MB
LONG TERM....30/MB
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
