Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
716
FXUS64 KFWD 061022
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of North Texas
through 8 PM today for afternoon heat indices ranging from
105-108 degrees.
- Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) are possible along and
south of US-84 this afternoon and evening.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected across
much of North and Central Texas this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Strong ridging over the Great Plains will continue to promote
surface high pressure and synoptic scale subsidence across the
region today into tonight. As such, most across North and Central
Texas will remain hot and relatively cloud free. Temperatures will
be above normal again today in the upper-90s and lower-100s. The
return of more robust boundary layer moisture will bring very hot
heat indices across the area this afternoon and evening ranging
from 102-108. Locations where widespread feels like temperatures
of 105-108 are expected are included in a Heat Advisory through 8
PM today.
Further south (generally along and south of the US-84 corridor),
isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) are expected to
develop during the afternoon hours. These low rain chances are
attributed to the presence of a weak upper-level cutoff low over
Southeast Texas and the northwestern Gulf. The development of
these storms and upper-level clouds from this disturbance should
keep highs closer to normal in the low and mid-90s. While no
severe weather is expected, the stronger storms will bring the
potential for strong gusty winds and frequent lightning, so be
weather aware in this area especially if you have outdoor Labor
Day plans.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
...Monday through Wednesday...
The ridge currently over the Great Plains and southeastern CONUS
will continue to build to near record levels for this time of year
with 500 hPa heights potentially exceeding 595 dm. This will keep
conditions dry and temperatures well above normal in the
upper-90s and lower-100s across all of North and Central Texas.
The expansion of this ridge will also push the subtle upper-level
disturbance responsible for low storm chances on Sunday further
south into the Gulf. As such, the only potential for rain Monday
through Wednesday will be for a stray shower or thunderstorm (10%
chance) in the Brazos Valley during peak diurnal heating.
By the latter half of the upcoming work week, the ridging over the
Great Plains and southeastern CONUS will deamplify and give way
to more zonal flow as a trough traverses from the Northern Rockies
into the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. There is a weak signal
from extended guidance that a cold front may approach the region
from the north sometime Thursday or Friday, but this scenario remains
uncertain at best with substantial inter-model and run-to-run
variability. Regardless, weak height falls attributed to the de-
amplification of this week`s ridge along with a very humid airmass
in place at the surface will result in a very low chance (10-20%)
for a few stray showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening hours Thursday into next weekend. Regardless of whether
this storm potential is realized or not, temperatures will likely
remain 7-10 degrees above normal through the end of this forecast
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Patchy fog with 1-2 SM visibilities has developed across East-
Central TX and should keep east of KACT and well away from D10.
There is also a low chance (10-20%) for isolated TSRA in Central
Texas (KACT), but probabilities remain too low to include in TAFs
at this time. After nearly calm winds through 17Z, E/SE flow
(100-160) at 7-12 knots through 03Z will give way to S/SW flow
(170-220) at 5-10 kts at all TAF sites.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 79 101 80 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 98 76 100 77 / 10 10 0 0
Paris 100 76 100 76 / 20 10 10 0
Denton 101 77 101 78 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 99 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0
Dallas 102 81 102 81 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 101 76 101 76 / 10 0 10 0
Corsicana 99 76 100 77 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 95 75 99 75 / 30 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 101 73 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-102>107-118>123-133>135-146.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
