Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
722
FXUS64 KFWD 011048
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet and warm weather continues today. Low rain chances return
to the region Tuesday and Wednesday (~20-30% coverage).
- Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
Earlier convection to the west of the area has died out late this
evening with just some remnant high cloud cover streaming across
the region. Warm conditions can be expected with overnight lows
in the mid 70s.
Mid level ridging will meander across North Texas again today
which will help suppress convective chances in our area and keep
things warm. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees
above normal with highs in the mid 90s again today. A weak
disturbance will slide southward through the Arklatex this
afternoon and we`ll likely see scattered storms well to our east.
Additionally, thunderstorms should be ongoing well to our north,
but none of this activity is expected to directly impact North or
Central Texas through the evening. Mostly clear skies can be
expected tonight with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
By Tuesday, the mid level ridging will weaken a bit and a
shortwave trough moving through the eastern CONUS will help send a
weak back door cold front into the Arklatex by late afternoon.
This front will have little impact on our temperatures but will
likely serve as a focus for more widespread scattered showers and
storms mainly to our northeast. Mid level flow will strengthen a
bit during this time and should be from the northeast which would
direct storm motions toward North Texas. We`ll likely see an
uptick in scattered storms in our area late Tuesday afternoon and
evening when we`ll have 20-30% PoPs. Strong afternoon heating and
modest instability would support an isolated severe wind threat
with any convection in our area.
By Wednesday, an expansive area of surface high pressure will be
in place across the southeast U.S. which should allow some
slightly drier air to push into our far eastern counties.
Meanwhile, a weak upper trough will spread out of northern Mexico
into West Texas. This should help kick off scattered storms along
a dryline well to our west. Some of this activity may push into
our far western counties by late afternoon/evening. A similar
setup is expected on Thursday with the best coverage of scattered
storms across our western counties. Either of these days could
feature a few strong storms with gusty winds and small hail.
By Friday, stronger height falls will spread out of northern
Mexico and across Central and North Texas ahead of the main
shortwave trough. Our best rain chances across the region look
like they`ll occur Friday afternoon into early Saturday as the
bulk of the forcing overspreads the region, but there is still
some timing spread amongst the guidance with the handling of the
shortwave out of Mexico, so we`ll continue to tweak PoPs over the
coming days. Rain chance will diminish by Sunday as the upper
disturbance pulls away from the region.
Temperatures will cool a bit closer to seasonal norms by Wednesday
with additional cloud cover and rain chances and should remain
there through the end of the week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
VFR prevails across the region this morning under passing high
cloud cover. Light south-southeast winds will continue through
much of the day before becoming more easterly on Tuesday. No
significant aviation concerns are expected today, but scattered
storm chances will increase on Tuesday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 74 94 75 / 0 0 20 30
Waco 93 75 93 73 / 0 0 20 30
Paris 93 72 89 69 / 0 10 20 20
Denton 95 73 93 72 / 0 0 20 30
McKinney 93 73 93 72 / 0 0 20 30
Dallas 95 76 94 74 / 0 0 20 30
Terrell 93 73 93 72 / 0 0 20 30
Corsicana 92 74 93 73 / 0 0 20 30
Temple 92 73 91 73 / 0 0 20 30
Mineral Wells 94 71 92 71 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
