Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
965
FXUS64 KFWD 202349
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record high temperatures are expected across parts of North and
Central Texas through the weekend.
- The grass fire potential will continue through next week given
above normal temperatures and very low relative humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Strong ridging over the Desert Southwest will continue to
influence our sensible weather through the weekend with record
high temperatures a near certainty. There will be a risk for heat-
related illnesses given the rapid warm-up this early in the
season.
The mid-level high will be centered over Arizona and New Mexico
through the weekend, with northwesterly flow in place 15,000 feet
above our heads. Below 15,000 feet, North and Central Texas will
experience continued southwesterly flow as weather systems roll
off the Rockies inducing a low-level northward mass response. In
addition to the weather systems across the Central Plains, a
strong surface high in the Gulf will further strengthen the
southwesterly flow in place.
Today`s temperatures are going to climb into upper 80s to mid 90s
across the region, with the warmest conditions expected to be
west of I-35. By Saturday, a lobe of the mid-level ridge will
extend eastward over North and Central Texas. The eastward
extension will effectively generate warmer mid-level
temperatures, with a similar warming trend expected in the lower
levels. Highs tomorrow will be in the 90s across the board. Areas
along and west of I-35 will be in the mid to upper 90s while East
Texas stays in lower 90s. Winds both today and tomorrow will be
out of the south between 10-15 mph.
The hottest day is likely to be Sunday as an additional warming
element is introduced to the forecast. A cold front will be
sliding southward during peak heating. Ahead of this front, a
narrow corridor of hotter conditions is likely to develop due to
compressional warming. Temperatures will likely climb into the mid
to upper 90s, with a few 100 degree readings possible west of
US-281.
In addition to the heat, there will be a continued threat of grass
fire starts given the daily low relative humidity along and west
of I-35. The limiting factor both today and tomorrow will be the
lack of strong winds, however, wind speeds are expected to pick up
on Sunday. The strong winds, hot temperatures and minimum relative
humidity values between 12-20% west of I-35 will further increase
the potential for grass fires Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
The aforementioned cold front will arrive Sunday evening,
bringing breezy northerly winds and slightly cooler conditions.
Monday`s highs will remain the 80s across much of the region,
which is still 10-15 degrees above normal. For those of you
hoping that this weekend`s heat wave would be short-lived, our
next wave of well-above normal temperatures will commence on
Tuesday with widespread mid 90s by Wednesday and Thursday.
Precipitation chances aren`t looking all that great through the
end of the month with subsidence atop our region. Looking beyond
the next 10 days, there are some indications of a pattern shift
the first few days of April. Although temperatures are likely to
remain above normal, the potential for rain somewhere in North or
Central Texas is looking a little more promising.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
VFR/SKC conditions will prevail at all North Texas TAF sites
through tomorrow. Expect south winds at 8-12 kts with a few
daytime gusts near 20 kts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 94 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 60 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 59 88 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 57 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 60 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 63 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 59 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 60 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 58 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 58 96 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
