Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
762
FXUS64 KFWD 261020
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
420 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures in
the 80s are expected again today and tomorrow.
- A strong cold front will bring widely scattered showers and a
few storms on Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong, gusty north
winds behind the front may warrant a Wind Advisory.
- Much colder and below average temperatures are expected early
next week, with temperatures warming back above normal for mid
to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
It`s another unusually warm late December night across North and
Central Texas with temperatures in the 60s and dewpoints in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Our region will continue to be dominated by
a strong H5 ridge centered over northern Mexico and south Texas
today and tomorrow. This will bring us two more days of near-
record to record warm temperatures with highs in the upper 70s and
80s. Today looks to be the warmest day of this week-long stretch
of late December warmth thanks to a weak dryline moving eastward,
bringing drier air and westerly winds that should help nudge
highs up a bit. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees
cooler on Saturday as heights fall aloft and low level moisture
increases due to an approaching upper level trough over the
western CONUS.
- Friday Dec 26 Daily Record High Temperatures -
DFW
Record High: 83 (set in 2008)
Forecast High: 84
WACO
Record High: 84 (set in 2016)
Forecast High: 83
- Saturday Dec 27 Daily Record High Temperatures -
DFW
Record High: 82 (set in 2005)
Forecast High: 81
WACO
Record High: 85 (set in 2005)
Forecast High: 80
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1229 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Sunday looks to be another unusually warm day for North and
Central Texas with highs reaching well into the 70s to around 80.
However, big changes arrive by late Sunday afternoon/evening as a
`Blue Norther`-type cold front races southward across the region.
Given the strength of the forecast surface high pressure to our
north at 1040-1045mb, strong post-frontal pressure rises, and the
shallow cold airmass behind the front, it`s very possible the
front may arrive sooner than currently forecast and undercut
Sunday`s high temperatures. Regardless, temps look to drop some
40 to 50 degrees from Sunday afternoon`s highs in the 70s/80s
down to Monday morning`s lows in the upper 20s/30s. In addition,
GFS/ECMWF depict a tight pressure gradient of 10mb over roughly
150mi behind the front with 925mb northerly winds peaking in the
40-50 kt range. This suggests we will see strong, gusty north
winds potentially near Wind Advisory criteria. Finally, enough
moisture looks available along the frontal boundary for a few
showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two on Sunday
afternoon/evening, mainly along/east of I-35. Precipitation
currently looks to move out prior to temperatures getting cold
enough for any wintry mischief, but it`s something to keep an eye
on.
Monday looks quite chilly with highs only reaching the 40s, and
continued gusty north winds will make it feel even colder with
wind chills in the 20s/30s. Monday night/Tuesday morning looks to
be the coldest of the week as a 1035mb surface high settles over
North and Central Texas, with lows dropping into the low 20s to
near 30. After this brief shot of cold, however, a warmup will
begin and continue through the rest of next week as a H5 ridge
builds over Texas and upper flow gradually becomes more
southwesterly. Highs look to warm from the 50s on Tuesday into the
50s/60s by Wednesday/Thursday and the 70s by late week, with
continued dry weather and no significant rain chances expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 412 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025
Low clouds/IFR cigs continue to spread northeastward from south
Texas this morning. Current motion has these low cigs to remain
well southeast of D10 airports, but they may get close to ACT and
will keep tempo IFR cigs in from 12-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected this TAF period with scattered cirrus clouds. South-
southwest winds this morning will veer to west-southwest during
the day, then back to southerly after 27/00Z, with speeds
remaining generally 12 knots or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 62 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 83 65 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 81 62 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 83 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 83 61 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 83 64 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 83 62 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 84 66 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 83 62 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 87 57 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
