Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
329
FXUS64 KFWD 241732
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storms (~30%) will develop this afternoon across parts
of North and Central TX. Frequent lightning and heavy rain will
be the main threats, but a few instances of severe hail and wind
will also be possible.
- Quiet weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with storms
returning late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Late morning satellite imagery shows generally sunny skies across
the region but a cumulus field has developed over the last hour
from the Metroplex back to the northwest and we`ll monitor its
expansion into the afternoon. The upper pattern features a
notable shortwave trough over southwest Texas within a broader
weakness in the 500 mb heights across the Southern Plains. Mid
level flow is weak, but oriented northwest to southeast which
should place the best vorticity advection and forcing for ascent
to our south through the rest of the afternoon. This generally
doesn`t bode well for storm chances in our area, however the low
level flow is easterly and an earlier morning outflow boundary is
set up near the I-35 corridor which has resulted in a strong but
focused area of low level moisture convergence. Latest aircraft
sounding data indicates a modest capping inversion around 850 mb
which is supported by the latest RAP objective analysis and will
certainly be an inhibiting factor for storm development for a few
hours. However, CAM guidance is insistent on storm development by
mid/late afternoon despite the factors working against it. Given
strong afternoon heating within a very moist boundary layer (90%
mean RH in the lowest 1km - ACARS) featuring very weak low and mid
level flow and a lack of any notable subsidence, we`ll likely
reach convective temps in the mid/upper 80s which should be
sufficient for scattered convection to develop. This is most
likely to occur within the area of focused low level moisture
convergence near or just west of the I-35 corridor from the
Metroplex southwest. Mid level lapse rates >7.5 C/km will be
sufficient to support a few instances of hail or severe wind
gusts via downdraft enhancement from mid/late afternoon into the
early evening hours. Weak steering flow will result in slow moving
storms with potential for locally very heavy rainfall. Coverage
of storms should peak at 30-40% before waning after loss of
daytime heating this evening. Any ongoing convective activity
should quickly diminish after dark with a quiet night expected
across North and Central TX.
The upper trough will slowly drift eastward on Monday which should
result in less potential for storms in our area. The only
exception may be our far eastern counties during the late
afternoon hours where we`ll have 20% PoPs.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Relatively quiet weather will continue Monday night through
Tuesday as North Texas will be on the back side of a departing
trough and too far east of the next approaching disturbance. Warm
and humid conditions will prevail during this time with the
atmosphere ready for additional showers and storms by Tuesday
night. As the upstream trough approaches late Tuesday we should
see scattered showers and storms develop off to our west and move
into North Texas overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning. We`ll have high PoPs during this time (70-80%) but it`s a
little uncertain whether or not this round of rain/storms will
blast on through and clear things out for Wednesday or not. The
upper shortwave will shear out and elongate over the Southern
Plains which will keep the region within an area of continued
forcing while ample moisture remains in place. This may support
additional shower/storm development through the day Wednesday,
however this is a little uncertain. We`ll likely have some
refinements to the PoP forecast during this time.
Beyond Wednesday, we should see things calm down a bit through the
end of the week but will be watching yet another upstream
disturbance which will likely bring rain chances back to the
region for next weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026
VFR prevails across the region this afternoon with light easterly
flow. Our main concern through the period will be TS potential
this afternoon and evening. It`s looking like we`ll see some
scattered TS develop near the Metroplex and areas southwest by
late afternoon. These should be slow moving storms with potential
for frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. We`ll continue with a
VCTS by 22Z with a TEMPO through 00Z for -TSRA. Outside of
convective areas, VFR will prevail through tonight and into
Monday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 69 88 70 / 30 20 10 0
Waco 88 67 88 68 / 30 20 10 0
Paris 83 66 84 67 / 0 0 10 10
Denton 86 65 88 67 / 30 20 10 0
McKinney 86 65 87 67 / 20 10 10 0
Dallas 88 71 89 71 / 30 20 10 0
Terrell 86 67 87 67 / 20 10 10 0
Corsicana 87 68 88 69 / 20 10 10 0
Temple 85 66 87 67 / 20 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 85 63 87 65 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
