Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
520
FXUS64 KFWD 081144
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
544 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above-average temperatures will continue through the end of
the work week. Near-record to record-breaking high temperatures
are likely today at Waco.
- Rain chances will increase for western North Texas this morning
with scattered showers expected primarily north of I-20. A few
showers and isolated storms are possible across portions of East
and Central Texas on Friday.
- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will result in an elevated fire
threat for areas near and west of I-35 today.
- A cold front arrives tomorrow, taking temperatures back down to
more seasonal norms by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1250 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
Expect our weather pattern to temporarily become more unsettled
through tomorrow as a couple mid-level shortwave disturbances move
across the Plains. Dense cloud cover and occasional mist/drizzle
will persist through the morning across portions of North Texas as
moisture return ramps up. Additionally, winds will be on the
increase through the morning in response to a lee-side low off the
Rockies.
The first of the aforementioned mid-level shortwaves is currently
traversing across northern Mexico and is expected to swing
northeast towards the Texas Panhandle through the early hours this
morning. This will spread even more abundant moisture across the
region, reacting with lift from the shortwave to promote scattered
showers in our northwestern counties near a dryline/Pacific
frontal boundary. Our northwestern counties will likely observe
some showers and perhaps a storm or two later this morning near
daybreak, though most of this activity will remain to our
west/north into Oklahoma. Forecast soundings continue to highlight
abundant shear and some increased mid-level lapse rates that
would promote small hail and gusty winds in any more robust cell
that develops, but marginal instability in our northwest will aid
in limiting the overall severe threat. The threat for strong to
severe storms will remain greater outside of our area in Oklahoma
where better instability and lift is located.
Over the rest of the morning and the afternoon, the shortwave
will continue its northeastward trek through the Southern Plains
towards Missouri, ushering both the rain and the dryline/Pacific
front eastward. Behind the Pacific front, expect clearing skies,
drier air, and continued breezy conditions with gusts up to 25-35
mph possible. South to southwesterly winds will promote
compressional warming, pushing afternoon highs today into the 70s
and 80s. These well above normal temperatures, coupled with the
dry and breezy conditions, will promote an elevated fire weather
threat this afternoon, particularly across areas near and west of
I-35 where humidity will be lowest. Make sure to avoid any
outdoor activities that could produce fire starts as any fires
that develop will easily spread.
The Pacific front will eventually stall in East and SE Central
Texas later today as its upper level support races off to the
northeast. Cloud cover is expected to linger longer in this area,
though precipitation near the boundary should taper off with the
loss of mid-level lift by this evening. Tonight, expect a more
tranquil night with low temperatures in the 40s-50s behind the
stalled boundary, to the 50s-60s near the boundary.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
Another shortwave disturbance is expected to dig into the Desert
Southwest and swing across the Southern Plains on Friday, shunting
the system`s true cold front southward towards the region. Lift
from this incoming shortwave will promote renewed convective
development across portions of East and Central Texas, near and
along where the stalled boundary still lingers. Showers and
isolated storms are expected to develop over the afternoon hours.
Model guidance shows quite the lackluster amount of CAPE, which
again will inhibit the intensity of convection. However, if there
is more instability in actuality and any storm is able to get
going, there would be abundant shear and steep mid-level lapse
rates to promote the potential for strong storms capable of small
hail and gusty winds mainly in our southeastern counties.
The frontal wind shift from south-north will occur earlier in the
day on Friday, but the surge of colder air will not move through
the region until late Friday-early Saturday. Expect much cooler
conditions this weekend into early next week, with afternoon highs
in the 50s and 60s Saturday-Monday and morning lows in the 20s
and 30s Sunday and Monday. Monday morning is currently expected to
be the coldest morning of the forecast period, with most everyone
below freezing (outside of some spots within the urban heat
island of DFW). Make sure to take precautions with pipes, pets,
plants, and the more vulnerable people later this week and
weekend, as well as properly bundling up for the morning commute.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026
MVFR cigs will bounce up and down (from MVFR to VFR and vice
versa) through the mid-late morning hours, and have continued to
prevail MVFR cigs > 2 kft until around 17Z at all TAF sites.
Scattered showers and an isolated storm will be possible to our
northwest, impacting the Bowie cornerpost, with much lighter
precipitation echoes streaming across the rest of North and
Central Texas. At this issuance, most of these light echoes are
culminating in virga. The majority of this activity will likely
stay north of the D10 airports, but there will be a window between
15-17Z later this morning where deeper saturation may produce
drizzle or even light rain. There is enough uncertainty to forego
inclusion in the TAF, but this will be monitored.
Ceilings will lift and clear out a bit early this afternoon with
the passage of a dryline, with VFR expected to prevail the rest of
the period. Behind the boundary: gusty winds will veer more
southwesterly, with gusts to around 25-30 kts possible this
afternoon through ~23Z, and may cause crosswind impacts at the
diagonal runways. Speeds and gusts will quickly decrease in
intensity this evening, returning to AOB 10 kts. Late tonight, a
cold front will move through the airports, shifting winds out of
the north at D10 around 6Z, and ACT closer to 10Z.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 51 70 40 / 30 0 10 0
Waco 81 54 71 41 / 10 0 30 0
Paris 79 49 67 40 / 50 0 20 10
Denton 80 43 68 35 / 40 0 10 0
McKinney 80 47 69 38 / 30 0 10 0
Dallas 81 51 71 41 / 20 0 10 0
Terrell 80 51 70 40 / 20 0 30 10
Corsicana 82 56 73 44 / 20 0 40 10
Temple 82 53 73 40 / 10 0 30 0
Mineral Wells 80 44 71 35 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
