Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
659
FXUS64 KFWD 182335
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions may materialize across parts
of western North Texas during the day Thursday. Caution should
be taken to avoid any activities that may lead to new fire
starts! A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday for Jack,
Young, and Montague counties.
- Near-normal temperatures will briefly return to the region this
weekend behind a cold front.
- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
A dry airmass currently bisects the forecast area this afternoon
with surface dewpoints in the mid 20s to upper 30s west of I-35
and dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s east of I-35 and south of
I-20. Light west-southwesterly winds will keep the fire threat on
the lower end this afternoon, but localized areas of elevated fire
weather conditions may materialize for a few hours this afternoon
west of Highway 281 as high clouds clear to the east and wind
gusts increase to 15-20 mph. Another mild night is expected
tonight with drier air and cooler temperatures to the west (low to
mid 50s) and more humid air and warmer temperatures to the east
(low to mid 60s). Very poor RH recovery is expected across parts
of western North Texas tonight which will preface an increased
fire threat for Thursday.
On Thursday, a compact shortwave will shift over the Central
Plains initiating lee cyclogenesis. The resultant surface low over
Central Kansas will drag an attendant Pacific front through North
Texas during the day reinforcing the dry air already present
along and north of I-20. Efficient boundary layer mixing is likely
tomorrow with gusts up to 30-35 mph being transferred down to the
surface during the day, primarily across far North Texas near the
Red River Valley. These strong west- northwesterly winds will
overlap low RH near 15-25% and dry, cured fuels along and north of
I-20 and west of I-35 leading to an elevated to critical fire
weather threat. The fire threat will maximize across parts of
western North Texas including Jack, Young, and Montague counties
where the strongest winds and lowest RH will likely reside. A Red
Flag Warning is now in effect from late Thursday morning through
Thursday evening for these three counties. Note that elevated fire
weather conditions will likely still materialize across much of
North Texas tomorrow afternoon, but a heavier rainfall footprint
from last Saturday`s wetting rainfall event and slightly lower
wind speeds will preclude a higher threat for more rapid wildfire
growth and spread.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
As the aforementioned surface low shifts toward the Great Lakes
Region, it will send a cold front into North Texas Thursday night
into Friday morning. Cooler air will settle over much of North
Texas with highs in the mid to upper 60s likely north of I-20.
Temperatures in the 70s will remain across much of Central Texas
on Friday. A stronger push of cool air will arrive early Saturday
dropping temperatures into the 60s area-wide Saturday afternoon,
outside of the Brazos Valley. A few isolated rain showers will be
possible ahead of the front late Friday night into Saturday
morning across parts of East Texas but most of the region will
remain dry.
Sunday and Monday will feature the coolest temperatures of the
forecast period with widespread afternoon highs in the mid 50s to
mid 60s and overnight lows in the 30s. However, temperatures will
quickly rebound back to above-normal Tuesday and beyond as ridging
aloft redevelops over the Southern Plains. Unfortunately, no
significant rain chances are in sight through at least the next
7-8 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
The weak front which pushed through this morning has lifted
northwest and washed out, and return flow has resumed at all
airports. South winds will continue overnight before another
shortwave trough drags a dryline east through North and Central
Texas airports around 15Z Thursday. The dryline passage will shift
winds to the west around 15 kt late morning through Thursday
afternoon, which may create some minor crosswind issues.
A deck of low clouds will surge north ahead of the dryline, and
the latest hi-res guidance indicates that it should impact mainly
Central Texas while bisecting Dallas County. Will hence include a
TEMPO for MVFR at KDAL from 10-14Z Thursday, while prevailing
MVFR from 09-15Z at KACT. At this time it appears that all other
TAF sites will remain VFR, but as always will keep an eye on
satellite and METAR trends overnight.
The dryline will be followed by a cold front, which will shift
winds to the north Thursday evening. FROPA in the DFW Metroplex is
expected to be in the 00-03Z time frame Thursday evening,
warranting an additional line in the extended DFW TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 77 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 63 80 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 60 75 43 67 / 0 0 0 10
Denton 54 75 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 58 76 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 61 79 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 61 79 46 72 / 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 65 82 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 62 82 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 51 76 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for TXZ091-100-
101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
