Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
885
FXUS64 KFWD 121912
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will primarily affect areas
along and north of the I-20 corridor this afternoon, Gusty
winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary
threats.
- Hot and humid conditions will continue on Saturday with highs
in the 90s and peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) look
to return to the area Sunday into Monday. Heavy rainfall will be
main threat.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across north Texas along an
outflow boundary this afternoon. Storms are not severe but could
produce brief strong wind gusts. Further south toward central Texas,
hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon. Temperatures are
in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
This puts heat indices between 100 to 103.
The frontal boundary should lift back northward into Kansas tonight
through tomorrow. This will allow southerly surface flow to resume
across north Texas and for hot and humid conditions to take center
stage. Chances for showers and thunderstorms should be minimal as
the upper-level ridge will build back in and suppress convection.
High temperatures look to reach the upper 90s with dewpoints in the
low 70s. This would push heat indices to between 100-105,
especially across the Metroplex. Anyone participating in outside
activities should take proper precautions to avoid heat exhaustion
by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade as
much as possible. Areas west of a line from Lampasas to Decatur
will be less humid so heat indices there will be in the mid to
upper 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for areas in and around
the Metroplex, where heat indices will be the highest.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
The pattern will quickly become active again for Sunday into Monday
morning as an upper-level trough axis will move to the Great Lakes.
This would place north Texas in northwest flow aloft with several
embedded shortwaves. At the surface, another cold front will move
into north Texas on Sunday morning which will substantially increase
chances for rain and thunderstorms. Storms will likely develop along
the Red River in the morning and slowly push south and east through
the day. Even if storms in the morning weaken or dissipate, a
second round could develop by the afternoon. Severe chances look low
at this time but localized flooding could become an issue with any
slow-moving storms or areas that see multiple rounds of rain.
The southern Plains should remain in a predominantly northwest flow
aloft pattern for the first half of next week. The frontal boundary
from Sunday should continue further southward on Tuesday and should
allow rain chances to be confined mainly to southeast Texas. Rain
and northerly winds should hold temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
for Monday, with some recovery for late Tuesday and Wednesday. The
return of southerly surface flow should allow high temperatures to
push back into the mid 90s with humid conditions for Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Thunderstorms will impact all terminals in the D10 TRACON this
afternoon through about 22Z. Winds will mainly be from the east
behind the line of storms before shifting back out of the south
by about 00Z. Waco and areas further south are not expected to be
affected by this line, but could be impacted by a brief storm this
afternoon. Otherwise, chances for storms will decrease overnight
with VFR conditions and southerly winds less than 10KT expected.
Some MVFR ceilings will develop by sunrise and affect some
terminals after 12Z tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 94 78 90 / 10 0 10 80
Waco 76 92 77 92 / 0 0 0 40
Paris 76 91 76 84 / 20 0 40 90
Denton 77 93 77 87 / 10 0 20 80
McKinney 78 93 78 86 / 10 0 10 80
Dallas 78 95 78 91 / 10 0 0 70
Terrell 76 93 77 90 / 10 0 0 70
Corsicana 76 95 77 94 / 0 0 0 60
Temple 75 93 76 92 / 0 10 10 40
Mineral Wells 75 94 76 88 / 10 0 10 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ102>105-
117>121-131>134-146.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kearney
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Kearney
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
