Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
367
FXUS64 KFWD 191940
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
seasonably cool temperatures continuing through Thursday.
- An arctic intrusion will lead to dangerously cold temperatures
and impactful wintry precipitation starting Friday, continuing
into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
A cold front slowly making its way south across Central Texas,
leading to a rather cool day with filtered sunshine thanks to the
presence of elevated thin clouds. Today`s temperatures will max
out in the mid to upper 40s north of I-20 with the rest of the
region in the 50s and 60s. Overall, expect a rather quiet and
seasonably cool day with breezy northerly winds through the
evening hours. With the cool airmass in place overnight,
radiational cooling will yield overnight temperatures in the 20s
for North Texas and 30s in Central Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
The confidence in impactful winter weather continues to increase
this weekend for much of North and Central Texas. Given
uncertainties in precipitation type and amounts, there remains
uncertainty in the level of impact across our area.
Tuesday - Thursday
Prior to this weekend`s wintry mischief, we`ll have to content
with a round of precipitation (not of the frozen variety) Tuesday
night into Wednesday. As high pressure builds in the Lower
Mississippi River Delta, our winds will become southerly ,
enhancing the moisture content across the region. A shortwave will
be diving southeast out of the Rockies on Tuesday, enhancing
forcing for ascent in North Texas. This forcing will become
enhanced by the right-entrance quadrant of the southern branch of
the jet stream, leading to widespread precipitation east of I-35.
Rain totals will range between a tenth of an inch along the
immediate I-35 corridor to around half an inch in East Texas. As
the shortwave continues to move east, it will drag a cold front
southward, ensuring temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
and Thursday.
Friday - Saturday
A strong cold front will be barreling southward out of Oklahoma
Friday morning, ushering in cold temperatures across our entire
region. By the afternoon, the front will have pushed across all of
Central Texas, sending temperatures tumbling throughout the day.
The latest iteration of the forecast did trim Friday`s temperatures
down by a few degrees compared to the previous forecast with high
temperatures likely occurring in the morning in North Texas and
early afternoon in Central Texas. By Friday evening, freezing
temperatures will begin to overtake the region from north to south
as we begin a prolonged period of widespread freezing
temperatures. There is a low chance that the Arctic air intrusion
arrives earlier than currently expected, ushering temperatures
below 32 degrees during the afternoon/evening rush. This
potential, albeit low, will continue to be monitored in the coming
days as it could have implications on potential impacts across
North and Central Texas.
Concurrent with the decreasing temperatures will be the arrival
of precipitation as a series of shortwaves move overhead. Each
passing shortwave will induce isentropic ascent atop the arctic
airmass, producing precipitation into a very cold surface
environment. With Friday night temperatures in the teens and 20s
areawide, the probability of impacts has increased across all of
North and Central Texas, starting as early as Friday evening and
continuing through the rest of the weekend.
You may be asking yourself if you should prepare for snow, sleet,
or ice -- the answer will depend on where you are reading this
from. If you`re in North Texas, the odds favor a transition from
rain to sleet to snow given the increasing depth of the cold air.
In Central Texas, a persistent elevated warm layer may lead to
more of a sleet/freezing rain mix which would generate it`s own
set of infrastructure impacts.
For now, the best action to take is to prepare for a long
duration of temperatures below 32 degrees, especially across North
Texas. Dangerously cold temperatures can be expected Saturday
night with widespread temperatures in the single digits and teens.
A persistent northerly breeze close to 10 mph will keep wind
chills near 0 degrees by Sunday morning. Should winds speeds be
stronger than currently expected, wind chills in the negatives
will be more widespread.
Cold temperatures of this magnitude will require active
preparation in advance. Make sure you are adequately prepared with
a source of heat and ensure pipes are properly covered heading
into the weekend.
Sunday Onward
Continued cold temperatures will persist on Sunday with much of
North Texas struggling to climb above freezing. As the center of
the surface high shifts south, precipitation looks unlikely on
Sunday. Some sunshine is expected during the afternoon before
clouds begin to move in once again as the surface high shifts
east. Another frigid night is expected Sunday night into Monday
with widespread teens in place. By Monday, temperatures rise above
freezing across all of North and Central Texas. Highs will be in
the 30s and 40s during the day, allowing for continued melting of
frozen precipitation across the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026
This morning`s cold front has led to northerly winds across all
TAF sites. Winds this afternoon will remain breezy as the elevated
winds mix towards the surface. Overnight, winds will diminish once
again with VFR skies in place through the duration of this TAF.
The northerly winds will gradually begin to veer late tomorrow
morning with southerly winds becoming established out of the south
by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Winds will remain below
10 knots with minimal impacts expected across the region.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 29 55 47 60 / 0 0 40 40
Waco 32 57 49 61 / 0 0 30 60
Paris 26 54 42 56 / 0 0 50 60
Denton 21 54 42 60 / 0 0 40 30
McKinney 24 55 44 59 / 0 0 40 50
Dallas 30 56 48 61 / 0 0 40 50
Terrell 27 57 46 58 / 0 0 40 70
Corsicana 33 60 49 60 / 0 0 30 80
Temple 32 57 48 62 / 0 0 30 50
Mineral Wells 23 55 43 63 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
