Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
383
FXUS64 KFWD 100014
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
714 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon across
parts of North Texas. Severe weather will become likely by
evening across much of the region. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the main threats.
- Some storms will linger into Wednesday mainly east of I-35 with
a continued threat for hail.
- Warm and dry conditions are expected through the end of the
week after storms move out of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
Water vapor and satellite imagery show a large upper trough over
the northern Baja peninsula this evening with a steady stream of
Pacific moisture across TX. At the surface, a large area of low
pressure in the Central Plains has resulted in breezy southerly
winds. Low level moisture transport has been strong with dewpoints
now in the upper 60s across the region and this will eventually
set the stage for an active period of weather starting Tuesday
morning and continuing into Wednesday. For the remainder of
tonight, we`ll continue to see an increase in cloud cover with
southerly winds 15 to 20 mph. While we can`t rule out an isolated
warm advection shower, rain chances will remain low through the
overnight hours.
As we get into early Tuesday morning, low level warm advection
will strengthen as a modest 30-40 kt low level jet begins to lift
northward. This should result in the development of at least
scattered showers, however mid level lapse rates will steepen to
around 8 C/km as stronger height falls begin to spread into the
Southern Plains. With persistent forcing for ascent, we`ll likely
see capping weaken sufficiently for a few thunderstorms to develop
by midday into the early afternoon. This should primarily occur
along and north of the I-20 corridor with hail and damaging winds
being a main threat. Low level wind fields through 1.5 km are a
little weak during this time and will tend to veer fairly quickly.
This may limit the overall tornado threat with this initial
activity. However, the discrete nature of these showers/storms
could result in some localized favorable wind profiles supportive
of a few tornadoes. We`ll have the favored timing of this activity
from around noon through 3-4 pm.
By late afternoon and early evening, we`ll be watching farther
west as strong height falls from the upper trough spread into the
region. This will result in a rapid development of showers and
thunderstorms mainly to our west, some of which will likely be
discrete supercells. This activity should eventually develop into
a line and spread east toward the I-35 corridor with time through
the late evening and overnight hours. Damaging winds and hail will
continue to be the primary threats, although bowing segments and
discontinuities in the line could locally enhance the potential
for tornadoes. Timing for this activity should generally be after
4 pm for development, spreading into our western counties in the
7-8 pm timeframe and approaching the I-35 corridor around midnight
or so. Refinements to this timing will likely be made over the
next 12-18 hours. The severe threat will diminish with time
through the late overnight as activity continues to push into East
Texas early Wednesday morning.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
By midweek, the trough responsible for this week`s storms looks
positioned to continue its eastward advance, flattening out as it
reaches the Gulf Coast and gets absorbed into the prevailing upper
level flow to the north. In the wake of this system, northwest flow
aloft will result in a brief wave of cooler temperatures through the
remainder of the work week before pseudo-zonal flow aloft and
southerly surface winds make for a warming trend through the
weekend.
Wednesday`s showers and storms look to come to an end by late in the
day for most zones, though guidance does suggest trailing rainfall
lingering into the evening before finally clearing out areawide by
daybreak Thursday at the latest. Under clearing skies, highs
Thursday afternoon will only reach the middle to upper 60s, followed
by morning lows in the middle to upper 40s Friday morning. The
remainder of the extended forecast period will see further warming
from the west, as 70s and lower 80s return Friday and areawide 80s
into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may bring another cool down
into early next week.
/26 - SHV/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
VFR prevails across the region at this hour with south winds
10-20 kt and a steady stream of high clouds. Low level moisture
and continued southerly winds will lead to a deck of MVFR stratus
after midnight tonight and continuing into Tuesday morning across
the region. There is a chance for scattered showers/TSRA as early
as 15Z but more likely in the 17-20Z timeframe across much of
North Texas. This initial activity is likely to be scattered in
nature and gradually lift off to the north with time. VFR should
prevail (BKN035) through much of the afternoon.
By late afternoon, we`ll see thunderstorms erupt well to the west
of the major airports as an upper trough spreads into the Plains.
This activity will gradually approach D10 airspace by midnight
with several hours of TSRA expected from 5-10Z or so before much
of the activity pushes off to the east. There will continue to be
a chance for thunderstorms into Wednesday morning before all of
this activity moves east of our area.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 81 62 76 / 10 50 100 50
Waco 69 81 62 78 / 10 30 90 60
Paris 67 78 63 73 / 20 50 100 80
Denton 65 81 57 75 / 10 60 100 40
McKinney 67 79 62 75 / 10 50 100 60
Dallas 69 81 62 77 / 10 50 100 60
Terrell 67 81 62 76 / 10 40 100 70
Corsicana 70 83 64 78 / 10 30 90 80
Temple 67 82 62 78 / 10 30 90 60
Mineral Wells 65 83 56 76 / 10 60 100 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dunn
LONG TERM....WFO SHV
AVIATION...Dunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
