Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
994
FXUS64 KFWD 182333
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
533 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances of 20-50% arrive on Wednesday along with more mild
temperatures.
- A stronger cold front is expected next weekend, bringing cooler
temperatures and another shot for rain (10-30% chance).
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
After a very cold start to today, this afternoon will be much
more mild. With the post-frontal surface high now to our south-
southeast, southerly flow has been re-established across North and
Central Texas. Under sunny skies, winds will generally be out of
the south- to-southwest this afternoon. This upslope component
will aid in pushing high temperatures into the 50s and 60s. Winds
will be breezy again today thanks to a persistently tightened
surface pressure gradient, with afternoon gusts up to 20-25 mph
expected. Very dry air still remains in place, with afternoon RH
expected to bottom out below 30% across the region. These dry and
breezy conditions will promote another day of elevated fire
weather conditions for areas mainly near and west of I-35 this
afternoon, where RH drops closer to 15-20%. Make sure to avoid any
outdoor burning or activities that could produce fire starts.
A weak cold front will be ushered southward late tonight through
Monday morning as a shortwave disturbance to our northeast rounds
the base of the longwave trough. The quick return of northerly
winds will keep overnight temperatures chilly in the 20s and 30s.
Most everyone will once again dip below freezing, outside of
portions of the DFW urban heat island where it may stay in the mid
30s. CAMs continue to highlight some gustier post-frontal winds
in the late morning and afternoon hours, particularly across
portions of North Texas and the Red River where gusts to 25 mph
are likely. The afternoon temperature gradient will be a bit
steeper in response to the frontal passage, ranging from the mid
40s near the Red River to the low 60s in our far southern zones.
Slightly better moisture and cooler temperatures will aid in
curbing the fire weather threat out west on Monday, but make sure
to take caution as abundant dried fuels continue to promote easy
fire starts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Slightly more unsettled weather is expected to arrive towards
midweek. Southerly winds will return on Tuesday, with more
abundant moisture advection ramping up during the day in response
to an incoming shortwave disturbance to our northwest. This
increase in moisture will initially result in increased cloud
cover, keeping temperatures mild in the 50s and 60s. The shortwave
will continue to round the base of the longwave trough as we head
into midweek, further pumping Gulf moisture across the region. As
this warm and moist air moves overtop the cooler surface, we`ll
begin to see showers developing generally near and east of the
I-35 corridor on Wednesday. The rain chances will be short-lived
as the system`s attendant cold front will be pushed south late
Wednesday into early Thursday, shunting drier air into the region
and shaving a couple degrees off of Thursday`s high temperatures.
A rapid warm up back into the mid 50s to mid 60s will occur on
Friday with the return of south winds. However, yet another minute
disturbance will bring a strong cold front south later this
upcoming weekend, bringing much cooler temperatures and another
potential round of rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Light west to southwest winds will veer to the northwest around
03Z this evening, eventually becoming northeast by 06Z in the DFW
Metroplex and 09-11Z at KACT as a cold front eases south through
the area. Northeast winds of 5 to 10 kt will then persist through
the overnight hours, with velocities increasing to around 15kt by
midday Monday. The front itself is ill-defined and may take a
little longer than expected to arrive, which would only keep the
light southwest (perhaps light and variable at times) winds in
place a little longer. Otherwise, VFR and overall nice aviation
weather is expected across the board.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 34 51 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 31 58 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 29 47 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 27 48 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 29 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 34 52 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 30 53 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 32 59 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 30 61 35 56 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 28 52 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
