Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
621
FXUS64 KFWD 071134
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week.
Low afternoon humidity could lead to some grass fire activity
through the weekend.
- Low rain chances of 20-50% return Monday night through Tuesday,
but no significant rain amounts are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
Early morning water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a longwave
trough extending from the eastern CONUS into the western Atlantic,
anchored by a deep upper low near eastern Canada. In its wake,
broad mid-level ridging has taken hold across the Southern Plains,
with a cutoff low now evident just off the southern California
coast. Locally, a weak backdoor front is draped across North Texas
this evening. While subtle, this boundary will continue to drift
southwest overnight, with a shallow northeasterly push reinforcing
the cooler airmass already in place. Temperatures will remain
mild by February standards, with lows generally in the low to mid
40s, and a few outlying spots north of I-20 potentially dipping
into the upper 30s by daybreak.
The arrival of modest post-frontal surface high pressure will
keep things quiet and warm today. Afternoon highs will be tempered
compared to Friday`s record-breaking warmth, particularly across
the northeast zones where the lingering shallow cold air mass will
hold temperatures in the mid/upper 60s. Elsewhere, broad subsidence
aloft and plenty of unfiltered sunshine will support highs in the
low to mid 70s. Winds will veer to the southeast by the afternoon
as surface pressure begins to fall in response to the approaching
western upper low.
The weather will begin to trend towards the unsettled Saturday
night into Sunday as the cutoff low off the southern California
coast begins to lift east toward the Desert Southwest. Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature will promote
gradual mid-level moisture return, with subtle embedded
perturbations in the flow contributing to enhanced upper-level
cloud cover beginning Saturday night. While deep moisture will
still be limited, cloud bases will steadily lower through the day
Sunday as column moisture increases and the low-level wind
response strengthens. South winds will help to draw dewpoints into
the low to mid 50s and nudging highs back into the mid to upper
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026
The upper low lifting into the southern Rockies late Sunday will
eject eastward across northern Mexico and Texas Monday into
Tuesday. Ahead of this feature, deepening southerly flow will
facilitate continued moisture advection with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 50s to low 60s across much of Central and East
Texas. Overnight lows will also trend warmer, a function of the
increasing cloud cover and sustained mixing, with temperatures in
the mid 50s by Monday morning and nearing 60 degrees in many areas
by Tuesday morning.
Widespread isentropic ascent and mid-level forcing tied to the
ejecting low should support increasing rain chances early next
week. While model differences remain regarding the placement and
timing of the most robust lift, general consensus supports a
window of scattered showers across the area beginning as early as
late Monday night and persisting into Tuesday. QPF amounts look
modest given the transient nature of the forcing and limited
instability, but light rainfall totals up to 0.25" appear
probable. The best rain chances will be focused east of I-35 where
the better low-level moisture will reside, while areas to the
northwest may remain mostly dry.
By midweek, a shift in the pattern will only serve to reinforce
the above normal temperatures as weak shortwave ridging builds
across the Southern Plains. Highs will trend into the mid to upper
70s through Thursday, with some low 80s possible along and west
of the I-35 corridor. Lee-side troughing and enhanced low-level
southwesterly flow will promote periods of dry and breezy
conditions across portions of western North and Central Texas,
which may bring an uptick in fire weather concerns mid to late
week. Forecast soundings suggest RH values falling into the 20-30%
range and gusts potentially exceeding 25 mph where mixing is
maximized. Elevated fire weather conditions may need to be
addressed in subsequent forecasts if trends persist.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026
VFR will prevail through the period across all terminals. Light
northeast winds this morning will veer to the southeast before
midday, eventually becoming southerly overnight. Wind speeds will
generally remain around 6-10 kts. Expect mostly passing high-level
cirrus (SCT250) later today and into Sunday morning, with no
impacts to flight categories.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 50 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 74 49 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 63 43 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 69 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 68 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 70 51 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 70 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 73 48 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 77 46 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 47 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
