Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
518
FXUS64 KFWD 032353
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered rain chances will continue into Friday for
portions of the region, with some brief heavy rain possible.
- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across much of the
Big Country into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Much of the heavy rain that caused flooding in our far southern
counties earlier today has ended, with only light rain persisting.
This light rain should taper off later tonight, with no
additional flooding anticipated. There remains the potential for
some scattered re-development overnight through tomorrow morning
near the I-35 corridor and near/south of I-20, where continued 2"+
PWATs would enable a few efficient rainfall producing showers.
Even with this overnight development, widespread flooding is not
anticipated, so the Flood Watch has been allowed to expire on
time.
The only bigger adjustment to the forecast this evening was to
massage PoPs through Friday morning to account for latest CAM
guidance and current radar trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains
in good shape and the discussion below is still valid.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard, in the form of a narrow
convergence axis and blob of rich moisture, will drift slowly
westward across portions of North Texas through tonight. The
primary focus for convection this afternoon will be generally east
of I-35 and south of I-20, with a preference for the western edge
of this envelope by the late afternoon hours. From this late
evening through the overnight hours, short-term convective
allowing models are advertising a blossoming of new activity
farther west, generally along a Killeen to Clifton to Cleburne
line by daybreak Friday. While excessive rainfall is not expected
in these areas overnight, it`s certainly possible some brief heavy
downpours could occur. This is an area that will need to be
monitored late tonight. The great majority of this convection
should remain south of the DFW area through tonight, though some
chance PoPs will be required for the Metroplex.
Based on accumulated rainfall so far, plus expected high rainfall
rates this afternoon, we`ve extended the Flood Watch for our
southeastern counties, and we`ve expanded the watch westward along
a line from Canton, through Corsicana and Mexia, into Franklin.
It`s not out of the question this activity may overperform,
rainfall wise, given the high precipitable water values present in
the area. Should this occur, the watch would need to be expanded
closer to I- 35 south of DFW, and extended into the evening hours.
For now, we`ll stick with the 7 pm expiration, pending later
development.
Friday will feature additional scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity across Central Texas, in association with the lingering
lower to mid-level weakness and moisture blob left over from
Edouard. Overall coverage and rain rates should be diminished
across the southern half of our forecast area Friday vs. today.
Nevertheless, a few spots in Central Texas, mainly west of I-35,
may yet receive additional brief heavy rainfall through the
afternoon.
High temperatures this afternoon across much of North and Central
Texas will be significantly modulated by the ongoing clouds and
precipitation from the remnant tropical system. Over our far
western counties, however, abundant sunshine will allow afternoon
readings in many locales to break the century mark once again. On
Friday, a decrease in cloud cover and precipitation, and an
enhancement of the upper ridge will allow readings in many areas
to push back into the mid and upper 90s. The exception will be
across the far southeast counties, where some residual cloud cover
and wet soils will inhibit highs from climbing beyond the lower
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The sensible weather across North Central Texas will steadily revert
to conditions that resemble those endured during August. While a
subtle weakness in the upper ridge will persist across the region
through Saturday, this will be supplanted by a reintensifying
upper ridge across most of the Central United States. Accordingly,
daytime temperatures should climb back through the 90s from
Saturday onward, with many areas experiencing a return to 100
degree plus heat by the early to middle part of the upcoming week.
Unfortunately, heat indices will rise in parallel, reaching
values that may require the issuance of additional heat
advisories. The only relief will be in the form of scattered
showers and storms which will occur across Central Texas each
afternoon next week. The coverage and amounts from this activity
will not be impressive, unfortunately. No significant changes in
the large scale pattern are anticipated through at least next
week, with drought conditions persisting in many areas of Western
North Texas and the Red River region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
It`s been a relatively dry day across the TAF sites, with
occasionally breezy south to southeasterly winds. All
precipitation this afternoon has been outside of the TAF sites,
and this will continue through the rest of this evening. There
continues to be potential for some spotty redevelopment overnight
tonight, mainly between 07-14Z. This activity will remain
showery, with probabilities for lightning around 10% or less in
D10 (20% or less at ACT). There is uncertainty on the exact
coverage, so will continue to advertise this potential with a VCSH
for now. If better confidence and alignment is seen in future
model runs, will amend for a higher coverage/probability.
Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all TAF sites with
continued south-southeasterly winds.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 94 77 97 / 20 10 0 0
Waco 74 93 74 95 / 60 40 0 10
Paris 73 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 74 96 73 99 / 10 10 0 0
McKinney 73 95 73 97 / 20 10 0 0
Dallas 76 95 77 98 / 30 10 0 0
Terrell 72 95 73 97 / 10 10 0 0
Corsicana 73 94 74 95 / 30 10 0 0
Temple 74 92 72 96 / 60 40 0 10
Mineral Wells 72 97 71 99 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
