Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
939
FXUS64 KFWD 301007
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
507 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central
Texas through this evening. Heat index values between 105-109
can be expected.
- There is a low chance for showers/storms late Friday evening
into Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and
Central Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Upper ridging will remain anchored over eastern New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle through Thursday keeping hot and dry conditions
over North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon highs in the upper
90s to lower 100s Thursday afternoon with peak heat index values
in the 105-109 degree range. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much
of North and Central Texas, outside of a handful of Big Country
counties, through Thursday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
By Friday, a shortwave trough will dive southeast out of the
northern Great Plains over parts of the Midwest shunting the upper
ridge west toward the Four Corners region placing North and
Central Texas beneath north-northwesterly flow. This will allow a
weak cold front to approach our Red River counties by late Friday
evening. Ahead of this front, veering surface winds and
compressional warming will drive temperatures up into the 100-105
degree range across most of our forecast area with heat index
values potentially topping 110+ degrees. This may necessitate an
Extreme Heat Warning across parts of North Texas Friday afternoon.
1.8-2.1" PWATs will pool ahead of this frontal boundary and may
allow for a few isolated showers/storms near the Red River as
early as Friday evening. Greater coverage (20-40% chance) of
showers and storms is expected Saturday morning into Saturday
afternoon as the frontal boundary slides south of I-20 and into
parts of Central Texas. Widespread severe weather is not expected,
but a few storms may be capable of strong downburst winds. Most
locations will unfortunately remain dry.
Drier air will filter in behind the frontal boundary effectively
shutting off any low rain chances by Saturday night. Light north-
northeasterly winds will prevail into Sunday allowing for slightly
"cooler" afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. However, by Monday
winds will return out of the southeast and ridging will expand
back over the Southern Plains causing temperatures to gradually
climb back into the upper 90s as we head into the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
VFR conditions with south winds (160-210) at 5-12 kts will
prevail through the TAF period at all North and Central Texas
terminals.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 82 104 82 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 30
Paris 97 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 10
Denton 102 80 104 80 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 99 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 102 83 104 83 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 99 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 20
Corsicana 99 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 30
Temple 99 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 20
Mineral Wells 101 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
