Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
537
FXUS64 KFWD 011135
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather with above normal temperatures can be expected
through early next week.
- Rain chances arrive on Wednesday with an upper level storm
system and cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 31
2025
The primary weather features in the near term are a mid/upper
ridge positioned just west of the region and a surface ridge over
the Gulf. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge combined
with south to southwest winds around the northwest flank of the
surface ridge will push Thursday temperatures into the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Those numbers are roughly 15 to 20 degrees above
normal, which should make for a pleasant start to the new year.
Thursday night lows (mostly in the 50s) will all be 20 to 25
degrees above normal for early January.
The upper ridge will undergo a weakening trend Thursday night and
Friday as a pair of shortwaves develop and propagate around its
northern flank. The first disturbance will work its way eastward
through the Southern Plains Thursday night into Friday morning.
It will be accompanied by a swath of mid and high clouds, which
may be enough to squeeze out some occasional virga or perhaps a
few sprinkles. A lack of moisture, however, will limit any precip
reaching the ground to either a trace or a few hundredths of an
inch. A weak cold front will also accompany the system, which will
push south to near the I-20 corridor before stalling on Friday.
The second shortwave will sweep southeast through North Texas
Friday night, but any significant available moisture will have
been scoured by the preceding disturbance. The main result will be
a secondary push for the cold front, which will send it south
through the entire area Friday night as the shortwave heads for
the Central Gulf Coast. Friday`s high temperatures will hence be
split between the upper 60s along the Red River (north of the
briefly stalling front) to the lower 80s across Central Texas.
Temperatures will then drop into the 40s Friday night behind the
front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec
31 2025
The weekend will feature a slight cool-down following the passage
of the rather un-impressive (for January) cold front.
Temperatures will still be well above normal, with highs ranging
from the low 60s along the Red River to the low 70s across Central
Texas. Despite the above normal temperatures, Saturday night will
be on the cool side with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Ridging aloft will then re-intensify Sunday and remain positioned
from Mexico northward through the Plains, with North and Central
Texas lying directly beneath its axis. This should continue our
warm streak through at least the first part of next week, when
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s can be expected area-wide
through Tuesday. (A few spots will no doubt surpass 80 at some
point.)
Wednesday features some uncertainty, as mid range guidance
is currently signaling a more unsettled pattern developing, but
will not get too hopeful just yet based on the recent pattern. The
current forecast will include low POPs for Wednesday associated
with an upper trough and the next cold front, and will fine tune
the details as additional guidance arrives in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026
South to southwest winds around 10kt will continue today, though
speeds will creep up towards 15+ kt tonight as the gradient
tightens and a low level jet develops ahead of a weak cold front.
Winds will shift to the west Friday morning immediately ahead of
the front, warranting another line in the extended DFW TAF.
Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will increase this afternoon
and evening, but conditions will remain VFR.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 55 72 47 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 71 58 79 47 / 0 10 0 0
Paris 67 51 71 44 / 0 20 10 0
Denton 68 49 71 40 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 68 52 71 43 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 70 57 73 47 / 0 10 0 0
Terrell 69 54 74 45 / 0 10 0 0
Corsicana 72 58 79 48 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 73 55 82 47 / 0 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 51 75 42 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
