Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
178
FXUS64 KFWD 221031
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record high temperatures are expected today.
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected late this morning
through early evening mainly west of Highway 281.
- Cooler temperatures are expected Monday behind a front with a
quick warmup expected through mid week. The grass fire threat
will continue through much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Overnight through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Near record heat will continue for one more day before a cold
front knocks temperatures back down a little closer to seasonal
norms. Strong mid level ridging is in the process of flattening
out a bit across the Desert Southwest. As it does, a trough moving
through the upper Midwest will help send a cold front southward
through the Plains. Prior to its arrival Sunday evening, we`ll see
breezy southwest winds develop today along with low humidity and
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s areawide. Our far
western and northwestern counties will have the added influence of
an expanding 925-850 mb thermal ridge and modest compressional
heating ahead of the frontal boundary. This should allow
temperatures to climb to or just above 100 degrees in a narrow
axis across the northwest CWA. Deep afternoon mixing will allow
30-35 kt winds to intermittently make it down to the ground
particularly west of I-35. The combination of well above normal
temperatures, very low afternoon RH (15% or less) and intermittent
wind gusts above 30 mph will lead to critical fire weather
conditions, especially west of Highway 281. We`ll have a Red Flag
Warning in this area from late this morning through the early
evening hours. Elsewhere, farther east, it will still be hot with
temperatures in the low to mid 90s, but RH values will be a touch
higher as we get closer to the I-35 corridor. Outside of the Red
Flag area, conditions will still be favorable for grass fires
throughout much of the rest of North and Central TX.
The cold front will lose some forward momentum into the afternoon
and should slowly spread south of I-20 this evening before
stalling out altogether across our far southern counties tomorrow
night. A weak area of surface low pressure should be in place
across our southeast counties by early Monday morning and this
creates a little uncertainty with respect to high temperatures
Monday afternoon. With the low across our southeast, surface winds
will likely shift from northeast to more of an easterly direction
(especially off the surface) through the afternoon. This will tap
into some better low level moisture and may result in a little
more expansive cloud cover than previously forecast. This is
indicated in much of the short term guidance and is reflected by
considerably cooler high temperatures. The NAM is most aggressive
with this, keeping highs in the lower 60s on Monday. While we
won`t go that cool, we have trended forecast highs down several
degrees for Monday afternoon and will continue to adjust as
needed. Otherwise, enjoy the brief cool down as we`re expected to
quickly warm up through the middle and latter part of next week.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
After a brief cool down on Monday, mid level ridging will
strengthen again off to the west and we`ll see temperatures
steadily climb through the week. Temperatures will be back in the
90s areawide by Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon humidity
between 25-35%. These conditions will continue to support an
elevated grass fire threat through the week. On Friday, another
cold front will approach North Texas and should shave several
degrees off of high temperatures headed into next weekend. At this
time rain chances are pretty slim through the week, although we`ll
be watching next weekend as the frontal boundary may have a little
more moisture to work with.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds
increasing to 15G30KT later this morning and afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front should arrive around sunset with
winds diminishing a bit prior to its arrival. We`ll maintain the
same 2-4Z arrival times through Metroplex with AFW/FTW going to
northerly winds a bit before DFW/DAL/GKY. North winds 10-15 kt
will prevail behind the front into early Monday morning. There is
an increasing possibility that we`ll have to deal with a little
cloud cover by mid morning on Monday. These cigs should be VFR
around 5000 ft...but there is some potential for lower cigs
through 18Z Monday. We`ll continue to monitor this potential and
adjust if necessary.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 59 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 92 59 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 89 58 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 93 55 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 92 57 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 92 60 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 90 58 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 90 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 92 58 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 96 55 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
