Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
351
FXUS64 KFWD 101113
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
613 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong storms will continue to be possible along the Red River
this morning. Small hail will be the main threat.
- A more organized round of thunderstorms is expected Sunday
afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Early morning thunderstorms are ongoing across eastern parts of
North Texas, generally near the Red River. This activity is
developing along the outflow boundary generated from yesterday`s
convection across western Oklahoma. This activity will continue
migrating southeast through the next few hours, continuing the
threat for large hail and damaging winds.
The main concern today will be potential for severe storms, some
significant, across North and Central Texas this afternoon into
this evening.
Clusters of storms will be ongoing this morning across Oklahoma
and the ArkLaTex region associated with outflows advancing
southward into North Texas ahead of an approaching cold front.
This outflow, combined with the front itself, should result in a
combined southward surging boundary extending along the I-20
corridor by noon.
A very unstable airmass is expected to develop south of the
boundary this afternoon as temperatures warm and low-level
moisture increases. Steep mid-level lapse rates over the warm
sector will support MLCAPE values generally in the 2500-3500 J/kg
range. Increasing forcing for ascent associated with a pair of
shortwave disturbances moving into the Southern Plains should be
sufficient for widespread thunderstorm development by mid-
afternoon, initially near the intersection of a West Texas dryline
and the incoming cold front. However, thunderstorm development
will also extend well east into North and Central Texas.
Initial storm development will likely be in the form of discrete
or semi-discrete supercells during the first couple of hours after
storm initiation. Large to very large hail, including some
hailstones greater than 2" in diameter, will be possible with the
strongest storms. Damaging wind gusts will also be a concern.
By late afternoon into the evening, storm mergers and
strengthening cold pool interactions should favor upscale growth
into a forward propagating line or bowing complex. As this occurs,
the primary hazard will transition towards damaging straight-line
winds. Given the degree of instability and dry air aloft,
corridors of 75+ mph winds will be possible with this activity.
The greatest severe threat should occur from mid-afternoon
through mid-evening, first across portions of North Texas before
shifting southeast into Central Texas. The tornado threat appears
limited by weak low-level shear, though brief spin-up tornadoes
cannot be ruled out within any bowing segments or near localized
boundary interactions.
Storms will continue moving south and southeast tonight, with the
severe threat gradually becoming more isolated as the boundary
layer stabilizes. Rain chances will end from northwest to
southeast late tonight into early Monday morning as the front
clears the region.
In addition to the severe weather threat, there will be a
potential for a few training thunderstorms that may produce heavy
rain. The threat for widespread flash flooding is low, however,
isolated instances of flooding cannot be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
As we begin the work week, a few remnant non-severe showers and
thunderstorms may be ongoing across eastern portions of North and Central
Texas. With post-frontal air in place, a northerly breeze is
expected. This should lead to slightly lower humidity with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s on Monday.
A mostly quiet pattern is expected through the middle of the week
as weak ridging builds over Texas. Afternoon temperatures will trend
warmer, with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s by
Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally
in the 60s.
Low-level moisture will begin to return later in the week as
southerly flow reestablishes itself across the region. Despite the moisture
return, large-scale forcing appears limited, and most areas
should remain dry through late week. Any low-end storm chances
would be tied to weak disturbances or subtle boundary
interactions, but confidence in organized convection remains low
at this time.
By next weekend, temperatures are expected to remain near or
sightly above normal with continued warm and humid conditions.
Rain chances may gradually increase if deeper moisture and
stronger ascent return to the region, but predictability remains
low at this range.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
An outflow boundary is currently bisecting the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metroplex, complicating wind direction for the next few hours.
Northeasterly winds at this time will likely become southeasterly
later this morning. MVFR ceilings have also developed and will
persist through much of today.
The main weather challenge will be timing additional outflow
boundaries, the cold front, and any storms that develop along the
different boundaries. CAMs continue to hint at a strong outflow
surging southward and reaching all TAF sites by 16z. A few storms
may accompany this boundary. The front will likely be arriving
shortly after and may also produce additional storms.
The highest confidence in storm coverage arrives late this
afternoon as storms develop west of D10, form into a thunderstorm
line and move east/southeast through the evening. This will impact
all TAF sites with KACT the most likely to experience the bulk of
the thunderstorm activity. The DFW Metroplex TAF sites will likely
be on the northern edge of the thunderstorm complex with storms
likely occurring between 00z to 04z. For Waco, that timing is
likely to be between 03-06z. Gusty and erratic winds are expected
with any thunderstorms that develop today.
Once the bulk of the storms move east, all TAF sites will be left
with northeasterly winds with post-frontal MVFR lingering through
the rest of the TAF cycle.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Spotter activation may be requested late this morning and through
the afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 62 77 60 / 70 90 10 0
Waco 88 64 77 60 / 30 90 20 0
Paris 77 61 75 54 / 70 70 30 0
Denton 80 59 77 56 / 80 80 10 0
McKinney 79 61 76 57 / 80 90 10 0
Dallas 83 63 78 61 / 60 90 10 0
Terrell 82 62 75 57 / 60 90 20 0
Corsicana 87 65 78 60 / 40 90 20 0
Temple 89 66 78 61 / 20 90 10 0
Mineral Wells 86 58 77 56 / 80 90 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
