Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
400
FXUS64 KFWD 061108
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
508 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will bring a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a
couple of tornadoes across parts of North and Central TX.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to bring a threat
for severe weather and flash flooding this weekend and into next
week, especially Saturday and Tuesday-Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
The CONUS is currently split between an upper trough over the
Rockies and a ridge over the Deep South, placing North and Central
Texas within a southwest flow aloft regime. Convection associated
with a disturbance in the southwest flow has largely remained
well north of the forecast area, as activity south of the Red
River has struggled due to a strengthening cap in the 850-700mb
layer. Will keep some low POPs in place overnight to account for
dissipating convection moving in from the southwest, but most
areas will remain dry.
The upper trough will split into two main pieces of energy on
Friday, one being a shortwave which will accelerate east through
the Plains and the other a closed low progged to drop southwest
into Northern Mexico. Ascent associated with the shortwave should
kick off a round of scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere destabilizes. The best coverage
will be near and east of I-35 in the better moisture, and
near/north of I-20 where the strongest lift will be. NBM POPs seem
too high after getting a good look at the most recent CAMs, with
the presence of a cap likely keeping convection scattered in
nature. With that said, strong deep layer shear and good
instability will support all modes of severe weather in a few of
these storms. The dryline may also provide a focus for an isolated
storm or two across western North Texas, though weak forcing and
a stronger cap will negatively affect convective attempts.
The severe threat will decrease with the loss of surface
instability Friday night, though coverage of showers and storms
will actually increase late night into Saturday with the arrival
of a cold front. The front will push slowly and steadily south,
eventually exiting the southern most counties mid to late Saturday
afternoon. A few storms may again be severe on Saturday, and
flooding may also be a concern with any southwest to northeast
training (along the surface boundary) which may occur. Both the
severe and flooding concerns should shift south of the region
along with the front mid to late Saturday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night Onward)
Issued at 1226 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
A cool Saturday night is in store following the passage of the
cold front with lows in the 40s and 50s. With the upper low
becoming situated over Baja California, a lull in precipitation
may occur Saturday night into Sunday. The upper low will begin
moving east late Sunday, and a lead shortwave may generate a brief
round of elevated showers and storms Sunday night into Monday.
Better storm chances will begin on Tuesday as the upper low
accelerates east, reaching West Texas on Tuesday and Central Texas
Wednesday or Thursday. There are still some timing discrepancies
in model guidance, but decent rain and thunderstorms chances will
be in place for the Tuesday through Thursday period of next week.
There will also likely be at least a low end severe threat along
with the potential for training storms and flooding. Dry and
seasonable weather will then arrive by the end of next week as the
upper low moves away and weak ridging develops in its wake.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026
Strong south low level flow will continue today ahead of a cold
front slated to push through Saturday morning. The 25 to 40 kt
wind gusts during the overnight hours finally subsided over the
past few hours, but should increase to 25-30 kt later this morning
after a few good hours of boundary layer mixing. A couple rounds
of convection are expected over the next 30 hours, the first this
afternoon and evening associated with a shortwave traversing the
Plains, and the second associated with the cold front on Saturday.
Coverage this afternoon continues to be uncertain due to the lack
of a specific focusing mechanism, so will stick with VCTS from
19-23Z in the DFW Metroplex. Probabilities remain too low to
include thunder at KACT. The second round will be included in the
extended portion of the DFW TAF associated with FROPA around 14Z
Saturday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across parts of North and
Central Texas this afternoon and evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 60 67 52 / 60 70 80 50
Waco 82 64 73 52 / 70 60 90 60
Paris 79 60 68 50 / 70 80 80 50
Denton 78 54 65 45 / 60 60 70 40
McKinney 79 60 67 50 / 60 70 80 50
Dallas 81 60 70 52 / 60 70 80 50
Terrell 81 62 70 52 / 60 70 90 60
Corsicana 84 68 76 55 / 60 70 90 70
Temple 83 66 75 53 / 60 50 90 70
Mineral Wells 80 54 65 46 / 50 50 70 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/MB
LONG TERM....30/MB
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
