Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
939
FXUS64 KFWD 132342
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through tomorrow
with hot and dry weather expected to continue into next week.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
The weather story remains a broken record, as high pressure aloft
continues to dominate the Southern Plains states. Temperatures
across much of North Central Texas - particularly along and north
of I-20 - will exceed 100 degrees yet again, with highest readings
occurring west of US 281 where the lowest afternoon dewpoints will
reside. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for roughly the
northern half of the forecast area due to continued heat indices
in excess of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will likely be issued
for Friday for much of the same area, mainly north of I-20.
Elevated fire weather concerns are also a key issue, particularly
this afternoon, as deep mixing transports drier air to the
surface. As a result, late afternoon relative humidities will
decrease to around 25% in many areas west of I-35. A persistent
trough in the lee of the rockies will create an enhanced pressure
gradient across the region through this evening, promoting
southerly winds on the order of 15-20 mph, gusting at times to
near 30 mph. These conditions, coupled with fuels that are
steadily curing under the relentless heat, will create an
increased potential for new grassfire starts, and enhanced fire
weather behavior. Continued care must be taken to avoid the ignition
of fuels across North Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
Virtually no changes are anticipated to the persistent hot, dry
pattern which grips North Central Texas. The sprawling upper ridge
over the Southern Plains and Southeast States will gradually build
westward to encompass the Southern Rockies by early next week,
with the center of this ridge transiting our area over the
weekend. Daily highs at or above 100 degrees will be the rule
across most of the area, with afternoon heat indices spiking into
the 105-110 degree range on many days through next week.
Additional heat advisories will likely be required. Similarly,
fire weather concerns will linger, as afternoon relative
humidities drop below 30% across much of Western North Texas,
coupled with gusty afternoon winds and ever drying fuels. There is
no immediate sign of meaningful rain relief through at least next
weekend, and likely several days beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
VFR conditions and south winds at 12-20 kts will prevail through
the TAF period. We have introduced some SCT MVFR cigs at KACT
after 11Z Friday morning for a few hours. A TEMPO MVFR group may
be needed if coverage looks greater later tonight. These cigs
should stay well south of the Metroplex, but there is a 10-20%
chance that SCT 2-3 kft cigs nudge up into the southeastern
portions of the Metroplex early tomorrow morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ100-101-115>117.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
