Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
567
FXUS64 KFWD 311046
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central
Texas through 8 PM Friday. Heat index values between 105-110
can be expected again tomorrow.
- There is a low chance for showers/storms late Friday evening
into Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and
Central Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul
31 2026
A broad mid and upper-level ridge centered from eastern New
Mexico into West Texas will remain the dominant feature today,
with North and Central Texas along its eastern flank. A shortwave
diving southeast through the Plains will temporarily suppress the
ridge toward the Four Corners, placing North Texas beneath
northwest flow by this evening. This will not represent a full
breakdown of the ridge, but should weaken its influence enough to
allow a weak cold front to approach the Red River later today.
Ahead of the front, surface winds will veer to the southwest,
promoting downslope warming, deeper boundary-layer mixing, and
compressional warming. Highs will range from the upper 90s to
around 104 degrees, with heat index values between 105 and 110
degrees across much of North Texas and eastern Central Texas. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM for much of the
region.
The cold front is expected to reach the Red River counties late
this evening before progressing south through the remainder of
North Texas overnight. The boundary should move south of the I-20
corridor Saturday morning, continue through Central Texas during
the afternoon, and exit the forecast area Saturday evening. As is
typical for this time of year, the initial northerly wind shift
will likely arrive before the more noticeable drop in temperatures
and humidity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near
the Red River this evening, but with the strongest upper-level
forcing lifting away toward the Midwest, storm coverage should
remain limited as the front advances south.
Isolated storms may redevelop across Central Texas Saturday
afternoon where frontal convergence overlaps the remaining warm
and unstable air mass. Storm coverage is expected to remain fairly
isolated, but any storm that develops will be capable of
producing strong, localized downburst winds as heavy precipitation
descends through the hot, deeply mixed lower atmosphere. Frequent
lightning and sudden wind shifts will also pose a hazard for
those with outdoor plans, especially on area lakes. Storm chances
will diminish from north to south late Saturday as the front exits
and drier air begins filtering into the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
Drier air will continue spreading south Saturday night as surface
high pressure settles across the Plains. North to northeast
winds, clearing skies, and lower dewpoints will provide a brief
break from the recent heat and humidity, with Sunday afternoon
temperatures generally in the 90s. The lower humidity may be more
noticeable than the actual temperature change, while favorable
radiational cooling should result in a less warm start Sunday
morning.
The surface high will shift east on Monday, allowing winds to
return to the east-southeast while upper ridging and the
associated thermal ridge expand back across the Southern Plains.
Low-level moisture will initially return beneath strengthening
mid-level warming, favoring increasingly humid and rain-free
conditions. Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to around
100 degrees during the first half of the week, with triple-digit
heat indices becoming increasingly common Tuesday onward.
Additional heat headlines may eventually be needed as the
combination of hot temperatures and returning humidity becomes re-
established across North and Central Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds
around 10-12 kt will continue through much of the day before a
weak cold front enters North Texas later this evening. A brief
westerly wind shift is expected immediately ahead of the
boundary, followed by a transition to northerly winds later in the
TAF period. The front/wind shift will not reach Waco until after
12Z Saturday. While isolated convection may accompany the front
tonight, the combination of limited (isolated) coverage and the
anticipated weakening trend with southward extent supports
maintaining a dry TAF forecast for now. Later forecasts will
continue to monitor convective trends as the front moves into
North Texas.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 82 98 76 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 101 79 99 74 / 0 20 20 0
Paris 101 77 93 70 / 0 20 0 0
Denton 104 79 98 73 / 0 10 10 0
McKinney 103 79 96 73 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 104 83 99 77 / 0 10 0 0
Terrell 102 79 98 73 / 0 10 0 0
Corsicana 102 79 99 72 / 0 20 10 0
Temple 100 77 99 74 / 0 20 20 10
Mineral Wells 104 76 98 70 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-146>148-162.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
