Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 261714
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1214 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Though temperatures this afternoon will be noticeably warmer than
yesterday, this is shaping up to be another relatively mild and
pleasant day, especially by late May standards. The closed upper
level low that has been slowly meandering across Kansas and
Oklahoma is finally departing the Plains allowing upper ridging to
shift eastward across the Rockies. The swath of high clouds that
was rotating through the base of the upper low this morning have
now cleared our northern zones leaving behind clear skies region-
wide.

Cool and dry advection amid breezy northwest flow will be offset
by unfiltered sunshine resulting in relatively warmer (but still
near or below-normal) temperatures this afternoon. Highs are
expected to reach the mid to upper 70s along the Red River Valley
where CAA and morning cloud cover has inhibited/delayed more
robust warming. Elsewhere, temperatures in the mid and upper 80s
are expected with a few areas in Central Texas approaching or
reaching the lower 90s. Another unseasonable dip in temperatures
is likely tonight as wind speeds ease and conditions favorable for
good radiational cooling emerge. Expect temperatures in the 50s
and lower 60s by daybreak Friday. The warming trend picks up some
momentum on Friday as the ridge strengthens overhead. Temperatures
will warm as much as 10 degrees above normal in spots, with highs
ranging from the mid 80s in the northeast to mid 90s in the west.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022/
/Memorial Day Weekend Through Next Wednesday/

A dry and hot period resumes for the holiday weekend and continue
through the middle of next week. An upper trough is expected to
organize over the Western CONUS and Rockies, but this will only
strengthen the upper ridge across the Texas into the Southeast
states through the period. A strong mid level impulse does
traverse the apex of the increasing ridge across primarily Kansas
and Oklahoma Friday night and Saturday morning. The GFS is the
only model that shows a signal that weakening showers and storms
associated with increasing WAA actually are able to survive into
our far northeast counties early Saturday, while other models are
not nearly as aggressive with this convection. As in my previous
discussion for this period, I will maintain a dry forecast, though
mid-high level convective debris left over could impact high
temperatures by a degree or two Saturday afternoon.

Later in the holiday weekend and beyond, high temperatures will
soar to between 5 to 10 degrees above normals for the end of May
with most locations seeing the 90s return. The one exception will
be our far western counties and into the Big Country, where a
drier and less humid airmass may assist highs peaking around near
or around 100 degrees each afternoon. Gusty southerly winds 15 to
25 mph each afternoon will help to quell the heat somewhat, but
they also may result in elevated fire weather conditions across
these same far western counties. Fortunately, recent green up the
past month or more and recent rainfall should keep grass fires
down to a minimum, if at all.

The deep Western CONUS/Rockies upper trough does eventually open
up with the synoptic mid level flow dampening quite a bit by the
middle of next. This will likely result in a cold front stalling
from NW Oklahoma, northeast across Southern Kansas into the
Missouri and Mid Mississippi River Valley. As is typical this time
of year, a dryline will likely extend southward near or just east
of the Texas/New Mexico line each afternoon. This likely means
that any rainfall chances remain well west and north of the area
with weakening complexes of storms across Oklahoma likely
dissipating off before reaching the Red River. There is hope,
however in the 10-14 day period that the upper ridge could dampen
and weaken enough to allow for some of this nocturnal activity to
reach across the Red River into North Texas and potentially leave
outflow boundaries for the following day for spotty convection. Of
course this is a ways off and the only confidence I have as of
right now is the hot and windy afternoons with breezy, humid, and
warm nights. Yes, early Summer is about upon us folks.

05/Marty

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

No significant aviation concerns anticipated through the valid
TAF period. VFR conditions prevail with west-northwest winds of
10 to 15 KTS and gusts up to 25 KTS at all area terminals through
the afternoon. Wind speeds will diminish quickly around sunset
becoming light and variable by 27/03Z-05Z. Wind speeds will
remain less than 10 KTS through Friday afternoon, with
southeasterly winds becoming established just beyond the current
extended TAF period.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  59  90  67  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                90  61  91  66  93 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               77  54  84  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              83  56  88  64  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            80  55  86  63  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              83  60  89  67  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             83  56  87  63  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           88  59  89  65  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              91  62  92  65  93 /   0   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       87  56  92  65  95 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion