Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
559
FXUS64 KFWD 101058
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered storms are expected mainly in North Texas,
this afternoon/evening. A few storms may become strong with
gusty winds, but the severe threat is low.
- Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most
areas rain-free this weekend and beyond.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Unlike the previous few days, today will be a bit more unsettled.
An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move W-E over
the northern Plains, shunting a cold front into the southern
Plains. This front is currently draped across northern
Kansas/southern Nebraska, and is expected to push into Oklahoma
before stalling this afternoon. With the front remaining to our
north and most guidance pushing the incoming cloud cover later in
the afternoon, most areas will observe high temperatures in the
mid 90s to around 100-101. We should still be able to mix out
enough to keep heat indices just under Heat Advisory criteria for
most, though isolated locales may still reach that 105-106 degree
heat index value this afternoon in North Texas.
Showers and storms are expected to develop on the front and will
eventually surge south along an outflow boundary, moving into
North Texas this afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage of
scattered convection will be near the Red River and north of
US-380, but isolated storms will remain possible as the outflow
continues south of I-20 tonight. The overall severe weather threat
with this activity is low, though strong gusty winds and
lightning will be the main hazards with any more robust cell or
cluster. Though PWATs > 1.75" will allow for periods of heavy
rain, the scattered nature of this activity means that not
everyone will see beneficial rainfall. Most areas in North Texas
will see rainfall totals through Friday of around 0.50", though
some isolated spots may see totals between 0.75-1". Areas south of
I-20 and into Central Texas will observe even lower totals.
Most of the storm activity will be during the afternoon and early
evening, gradually waning in coverage the rest of the night with
the loss of daytime heating. Isolated to scattered rain chances
will still remain overnight into Friday as the shortwave itself
exits into the Midwest. As the shortwave moves off to the east,
expect any lingering rain to come to an end during the day Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Over this upcoming weekend the upper ridge will begin to build
back into the Southern Plains in the wake of the exiting
shortwave. This will effectively stunt any additional rain as
subsidence becomes the main forecast player through the first half
of this upcoming week. However this looks to be only temporary as
extended guidance continues to show a shortwave trough displacing
the ridge to the west and allowing a cold front to slide south
through the Plains into the region towards the end of next week
into the weekend. While it is way too early to get into the weeds
of specifics regarding effects on temperatures and rain chances,
it`ll definitely be something we`ll keep an eye on as we go
through this weekend into next week. Expect more details as we get
closer in time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
D10: Southerly winds will prevail through the mid afternoon
before flying conditions get a bit hairy. Showers and storms from
Oklahoma will surge south along an outflow boundary, impacting the
D10 sites late this afternoon. Greatest chances for direct
terminal impact remain between 23-03Z when gusty winds, lightning,
and a northerly wind shift are most prevalent, but confidence in
coverage remains low enough to keep the PROB30 going for now. A
couple hours of trailing showers is to be expected before
precipitation fully ends closer to 07Z. Expect winds to return to
the southeast late tonight, and will persist through the rest of
the TAF period.
ACT: Southerly winds will prevail for much of today. Similar to
the D10 discussion, expect an outflow boundary and accompanying
storms to approach the airport around 00Z this evening, though
coverage is too uncertain at this time to include a PROB30/TEMPO
group. Have introduced a mention of VCTS for now along with
easterly winds. There is uncertainty on if the outflow boundary
will make it through ACT, so have not included a northerly wind
shift at this time. Outside of this, expect winds to return to
southerly flow when precipitation comes to an end around 04Z.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 79 98 79 / 20 40 40 0
Waco 98 76 99 77 / 10 10 20 0
Paris 98 73 94 74 / 20 40 50 0
Denton 99 75 98 76 / 30 40 30 0
McKinney 98 75 95 75 / 20 40 40 0
Dallas 100 79 99 80 / 20 30 40 0
Terrell 99 75 97 75 / 10 20 40 0
Corsicana 98 75 97 76 / 0 10 30 0
Temple 98 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 0
Mineral Wells 99 72 99 74 / 40 40 30 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
