Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
231
FXUS64 KFWD 061826
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
126 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Additional showers and storms will affect much of North and
Central Texas this evening through Sunday morning. Localized
heavy rainfall and flash flooding is the main hazard, and a
Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas.
- A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail are also
possible from this afternoon into tonight across the Big Country.
- Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the
upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees
each afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The active pattern continues this afternoon for north Texas with
ongoing rain showers mainly northeast of the Metroplex. The upper-
level low driving this activity is located over northwest Texas with
a dry slot moving in from the southwest. Most of the high clouds
have cleared out due to the dry slot but this has allowed for plenty
of heating to take place from the Metroplex westward. This,
combined with being close to the upper low should lead to increased
chances for strong storms to develop late this afternoon across the
Big Country then moving into the the Metroplex overnight.
Initially, storms will have the potential to produce some hail as
they develop and move through the Big Country during peak heating
time. Later this evening and overnight, storms should congeal and
become heavy rain producers with the potential for multiple rounds
of thunderstorms across the western and northwestern parts of the
area. The HREF Mean rainfall totals show areas of 1 to 3 inches for
most areas, but some corridors of heavier rainfall are looking more
likely. The HREF LPMM shows localized higher total amounts of 6 to 8
inches through tomorrow morning. It is still uncertain where this
corridor of heavier rainfall will set up, but areas northwest of a
line from Dublin to Sherman can expect to see heavy rain overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing eastward across the
Metroplex tomorrow morning as the trough axis moves eastward.
Although severe weather chances look low, storms could quickly
produce amounts of around one inch for urban areas and lead to
localized flooding. Rain chances should decrease tomorrow afternoon
as the upper level low finally lifts northeastward towards Kansas
City.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the
Midwest by Monday. In it`s wake, a subtropical ridge will build in
across Texas and persist through much of next week. Rain chances
will dry up during this time, but the tradeoff is much sunnier and
hotter conditions are anticipated. Model consensus shows 500mb
heights of 590dam centered over east Texas with 850mb temperatures
of 17-20 deg C each day. There is a low to medium (20 to 50%) chance
for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In addition, the
humidity levels will still be rather high for much of next week with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This would lead to heat indices
between 100-107 each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Generally VFR conditions expected throughout the afternoon and
evening with scattered clouds at around 2000ft. Another round or
two of thunderstorms is anticipated to move in from the west by
06Z and perhaps as early as 04Z. Currently carrying a Prob30 for
storms at most TAF sites to account for this although TEMPO groups
will likely be needed for later TAF packages as confidence
increases. MVFR ceilings should persist behind any thunderstorms
tomorrow morning with IFR ceilings looking likely at Waco.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 90 75 93 / 80 40 0 0
Waco 73 88 75 91 / 40 20 0 0
Paris 71 84 74 89 / 50 60 20 0
Denton 71 89 76 92 / 90 40 0 0
McKinney 72 87 75 91 / 80 40 10 0
Dallas 73 91 76 94 / 70 40 0 0
Terrell 71 88 74 92 / 50 40 10 0
Corsicana 73 89 75 93 / 40 30 10 0
Temple 73 89 75 91 / 40 10 0 10
Mineral Wells 69 91 75 94 / 90 20 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>119-129>134-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kearney
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Kearney
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
