Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
168
FXUS64 KFWD 231022
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect areas near the
Red River this morning. Locally heavy rainfall is the main
threat, but strong winds are also possible.
- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible near the Red River
again on Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible.
- Dry weather with seasonably hot and humid conditions will
continue through the rest of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Radar imagery early this morning shows scattered storms have
developed along the remnant outflow boundary from last night`s
MCS. This activity is expected to remain near the Red River
and stay north and northeast of the Metroplex this morning before
activity dissipated by afternoon. A few of these storms could get
intense at times given the ample MUCAPE of 4065 J/Kg and steep
mid level lapse rates of 8.4 C/km on the 00Z FWD sounding, with
strong winds and small hail possible. The very high PWAT near 2
inches on the evening balloon sounding also indicates heavy rain
and localized flooding will be possible where storms repeatedly
move over the same locations. Current radar trends suggest Fannin
and Lamar Counties would be the most likely impacted with heavy
rain or flood issues this morning.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast area including the Metroplex
is anticipated to stay dry today with another hot and humid day
on tap thanks to highs well into the 90s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s/70s. Guidance shows more dry air aloft today versus
yesterday which should allow dewpoints to mix down some during
the afternoon. Therefore peak heat indices should stay mainly in
the 100-105 range, although a few locations could see slightly
higher values similar to yesterday. Since conditions look to be
borderline, will hold off on a heat advisory for now.
Additional widely scattered showers and storms are possible near
the Red River again Tuesday night as an H5 shortwave trough moves
overhead, but CAMs are not currently enthusiastic about this
potential. Will keep pops on the lower side for now.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Rest of the week into the weekend appears dry, hot and humid as
the H5 ridge currently centered near El Paso builds eastward
across the state. This will effectively shut off our rain chances
as the upper level westerlies shift well north of us. Although
the upper ridge will not be notably strong, subsidence beneath it
will still allow us to gradually heat up each day with highs
rising through the upper 90s late week to near 100 over the
weekend. Despite dry air aloft allowing dewpoints to mix out each
afternoon, the hotter afternoon high temperatures may necessitate
heat advisories for parts of North and Central Texas this
upcoming weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
MVFR cigs have been slow to develop this morning per satellite
imagery and surface observations, and have scaled back mention to
a tempo group from 12-15Z although was tempted to remove mention
completely. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period with all SHRA/TSRA expected to stay well north and
northeast of airports. South winds 8-15 kts will continue through
tonight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 78 97 78 / 20 10 0 0
Waco 95 76 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 88 74 91 75 / 40 30 10 10
Denton 94 77 96 77 / 20 20 0 0
McKinney 93 77 95 77 / 20 20 0 0
Dallas 96 78 97 78 / 20 10 0 0
Terrell 94 76 95 75 / 20 10 0 0
Corsicana 95 76 96 74 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 94 75 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 95 76 97 75 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
