Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
170
FXUS64 KFWD 181127
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is increasing fire weather concerns for areas northwest of
the DFW Metroplex Thursday afternoon.
- Near normal temperatures will briefly return to the region by
the end of this weekend.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
...The Remainder of Tonight...
Tonight, a weak pacific front will continue to slowly advance
across North and Central Texas from west to east. Ahead of the
front, dew points in the 50s and lower 60s in conjunction with
substantial cloud cover will keep lows relatively warm tonight: in
the low 60s. Behind the front, skies should clear and winds will
switch out of the west and bring in much drier air. This will help
overnight lows behind the front dip down into the low and mid 50s
tonight. The frontal boundary should be just east of the I-35
corridor by sunrise this morning.
...Wednesday and Wednesday Night...
Throughout the day on Wednesday, the pacific front at the surface
will continue to slowly push east while the parent storm system
moves northeastward from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes.
With the bulk of forcing for ascent well displaced to the north
and the post-frontal arid continental airmass continuing to
funnel in from the west, expect another day of sun and warmth with
highs ranging from the mid 70s to the lower 80s (some 15 to 25
degrees above average). There will be some elevated fire weather
concerns across the region today with afternoon humidity dropping
into the 15-30% range west of the I-35 corridor. However, surface
winds of only 5 to 10 mph will preclude any higher fire threat
for North and Central Texas.
Wednesday night will be reminiscent of tonight, with higher
humidity and overnight lows to the east, and drier air with colder
temps to the west. However, the moisture gradient will be
oriented differently than tonight, generally extending along a
line from Goldthwaite to Sherman. Areas southeast of this line
will see lows in the 60s, and areas northwest of this line will
see lows in the 50s.
...Thursday...
On Thursday, a potent upper-level trough is expected to eject out
into the Central Great Plains, inducing strong surface
cyclogenesis in the Colorado High Plains and Kansas. South of the
maturing surface low pressure, the dry conveyer belt will make a
downward push to the surface, bringing exceptionally dry air,
clear skies, and gusty winds to much of Northern Texas and
Oklahoma. While the current forecast still shows elevated fire
weather concerns across nearly all of North and Central Texas,
there will be a favored area along and north of US-380 and west of
US-75 where a high fire threat may materialize. In this area,
surface RH will likely drop into the 10-20% range owing to
adiabatic processes as air subsidizes to the surface along the
southern fringes of the dry conveyer belt`s central axis.
Furthermore, a well mixed boundary layer with unidirectional flow
through its depth will efficiently mix down higher momentum air
from aloft. This will likely result in surface winds being
sustained at 15-20 mph out of the WNW, gusting as high as 35 mph.
Fire conditions will be most favorable from the late morning
through mid afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
...Thursday Night through Monday...
As the surface low in the Central Plains shifts into the Upper
Midwest Thursday night, a cold front will advance southeastward
into the region bringing in cooler air to the end of the work
week. Though still above average, temperatures will start to nudge
closer to climatology Friday and Saturday with highs in the 60s
and low 70s, and lows in the 40s and mid 50s.
As another shortwave passes well to the north on Saturday, a
reinforcing surge of cooler air will arrive from the north by
Saturday night. Ahead of this front, there is a weak signal for
isolated light rain showers east of the I-35 corridor. However,
with the bulk of synoptic lift well to the north and meager
moisture in the pre-frontal airmass, nearly everyone will remain
dry as rain chances currently only sit in the 10-15% range.
Sunday and Monday, temperatures will finally return to seasonal
norms with highs near 60 degrees. The dryness of the air and clear
skies overnight will actually lend to slightly below normal lows,
as widespread 30s are expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday
nights. Some locations outside of the DFW Metroplex north of I-20
may drop below freezing early Sunday and Monday mornings.
...Tuesday Onward...
Looking ahead to next work week, substantial ridging aloft will
quickly build back into the Southern Great Plains resulting in
a quick warming trend with highs back into the 70s by mid-week.
The lack of upper-level disturbances will also continue our dry
streak, with no substantial rain chances for the region in the
foreseeable future.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
A weak surface front will bring WNW (280-300) winds of ~5 kts to
Metroplex TAF sites through 18Z before switching back to south
flow. This response in surface winds will lag at KACT, with NW
(300-330) winds expected 15Z to 19Z before becoming southerly
again. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for
the duration of this forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 61 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 78 63 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 74 60 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 75 56 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 75 61 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 76 62 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 63 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 65 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 78 63 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 53 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for TXZ091>093-100>102.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
