Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
494
FXUS64 KFWD 210535
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and isolated thunderstorms will overspread most of the area
later tonight into Tuesday. No severe weather is expected.
- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve
late this week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Rain showers are expected to overspread much of North and Central
Texas later tonight into Tuesday morning as large scale ascent
increases ahead of a mid-level shortwave exiting the Trans-Pecos
region. Most of this shower activity will remain across Central
Texas until the lower levels of the atmosphere saturate closer to
the I-20 corridor allowing for more widespread coverage across
North Texas by 3-4AM early Tuesday morning. It will be a soggy
Tuesday morning commute across much of the region with a few
embedded thunderstorms not entirely out of the realm of
possibility during the morning hours as this activity will still
have access to a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE.
This broad precipitation shield will largely diminish and shift
east of our area by Tuesday evening, but isolated to scattered
showers may linger into Tuesday night, especially along and east
of I-35. When all is said and done, the most likely rainfall
totals will fall in the 0.5-1.25" range across Central Texas and
0.25-0.75" range across North Texas. Some of the more recent high-
resolution guidance is suggesting that the daybreak activity near
the I-20 corridor may be a little bit heavier than currently
forecast, so localized totals of 1+" in the Metroplex and
surrounding collar counties remain possible through Tuesday
evening. Widespread, dense low-level cloud cover and rain-cooled
air will keep afternoon highs down in the low to mid 60s Tuesday.
Although weak mid-level ridging will move in behind the shortwave
Wednesday, deep moisture will still support isolated to scattered
shower activity largely along and east of I-35 Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Clouds will finally scatter out Wednesday afternoon
as well allowing for temperatures to rise into the 70s across much
of North and Central Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
A sharp dryline will set up to our west by Thursday with a warm
and moist airmass remaining overhead much of North and Central
Texas. With persistent embedded shortwaves in the west-
southwesterly flow aloft, we could see periodic chances for
isolated to scattered dryline thunderstorms during the latter half
of this week. A major limiting factor to thunderstorm development,
especially Thursday afternoon and evening, will be a stout capping
inversion near 800mb. The better large-scale lift will also remain
north of our forecast area on Thursday, so we will keep the
potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two to 10% for late
Thursday across our west.
Thunderstorm chances will be slightly higher Friday afternoon and
evening across the eastern half of our forecast area as the
dryline pushes toward the I-35 corridor and a weak cold front
nears the Red River. Warm-advection showers will be possible early
in the afternoon, but more robust convective initiation may hold
off until after 4-5PM when forecast soundings suggest the cap may
break. Strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear will
support a large hail and damaging wind threat in any storms that
develop late Friday afternoon and evening with the greatest threat
generally along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20. This active
pattern will continue into the weekend with increasing
probabilities for thunderstorms, some strong to severe, across the
eastern half of our forecast area late Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Widespread SHRA will overspread North and Central Texas after
09Z-10Z early Tuesday morning. Expect MVFR vis reductions through
much of the day with intermittent periods of IFR vis increasingly
likely in the 11Z-15Z timeframe when high-res guidance is pointing
towards some +SHRA and potentially even embedded TSRA. Overall
instability and potential for lightning is low, so we will
continue to message a few hour period of VCTS near and after
sunrise Tuesday morning. Widespread SHRA coverage will come to an
end Tuesday afternoon with isolated to scattered SHRA activity
continuing into the evening hours primarily along/east of I-35.
MVFR/IFR cigs will also usher in Tuesday morning as top-down
moistening takes effect and cloud heights lower. Once IFR cigs,
become established, they will likely hang on through the remainder
of this TAF period. We may briefly inch up into MVFR status
Tuesday afternoon and evening, but widespread IFR, potentially
LIFR, cigs will fill back in Tuesday night. SSE winds at 7-12 kts
will prevail through the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 58 78 65 / 70 20 20 0
Waco 64 60 78 65 / 80 20 30 0
Paris 63 55 75 62 / 50 30 30 0
Denton 64 55 77 63 / 60 20 20 0
McKinney 64 57 76 64 / 60 30 30 0
Dallas 64 58 78 66 / 70 20 30 0
Terrell 64 58 78 65 / 60 30 30 0
Corsicana 67 60 80 66 / 80 30 40 0
Temple 67 60 80 65 / 80 30 30 10
Mineral Wells 64 56 79 63 / 60 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
