Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
377
FXUS64 KFWD 302317
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
517 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some light rain will return tonight into Monday. The potential
for freezing precipitation Monday morning near the Red River
remains low with no impacts expected.
- Sub-freezing temperatures with wind chills in the 20s are
expected on Tuesday morning.
- Brief warming is expected mid-week before another cold front
brings cooler air and scattered rain chances to the region late
this upcoming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Occasionally breezy northerly winds and increasing cloud cover
will keep this afternoon well below normal in the wake of
yesterday`s strong cold front. Afternoon highs will only be able
to peak in the low to upper 40s region-wide, about 15-20 degrees
below climatological normal for the last day of November.
An incoming shortwave disturbance, currently located overtop
Wyoming/Utah/Colorado will continue to swing east-southeast
through the Plains over the rest of today into tomorrow. As this
shortwave approaches later this tonight, low-level winds will
return out of the south and advect warmer, moisture-rich air
overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Due to this influx of
better moisture, expect continued cloud cover to help keep
overnight low temperatures at or above freezing, ranging from the
low-mid 30s to around 40. The aforementioned isentropic upglide
over the colder surface air will promote light showers beginning
overnight tonight, spreading from SW to NE as we head into Monday
morning.
While the primary precipitation type across our county warning
area will be liquid precipitation, we cannot rule out a very brief
1-2 hour window of occasional light sleet or freezing rain near
the Red River and our northeastern counties near/just after
daybreak Monday morning. Forecast soundings continue to highlight
a decent elevated warm nose, a very shallow (or nonexistent)
refreezing layer just off the surface, and warming temperatures
towards the surface. This very borderline temperature profile,
coupled with a very short period of at or near freezing
temperatures, shows that this is not a great set up for any
meaningful winter precipitation. Little to no impacts are expected
Monday morning as temperatures will quickly warm above freezing.
Expect scattered showers to continue mainly across East Texas
Monday afternoon. High temperatures will peak in the mid 30s to
around 50, continuing to be 15-20 degrees below normal as we break
through the first day of December.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
As the shortwave exits to our northeast Monday night and our
showers come to an end, a re-enforcing shot of cold air will
plunge temperatures below freezing almost region-wide. Expect
low-mid 20s near the Red River, and mid 20s to low 30s elsewhere
on Tuesday morning. Wind chills on Tuesday morning will be in the
20s, so make sure to bundle up on your way out the door!
We`ll experience a quick warm up back into the 50s and to near
70s midweek as southerly winds return. Our next shortwave will be
swinging through the Four Corners by late Wednesday-early
Thursday, bringing another surge in moisture overtop the region as
we head into the latter half of the week. Expect increasing rain
chances as the upper shortwave approaches North and Central Texas
late Wednesday onward. Long term deterministic and ensemble
guidance continue to show the system`s cold front moving through
late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another period of cooler
temperatures to end the week. There is still uncertainty on the
breadth of the temperature drop, with around ~53% of ensemble
members showing a deeper trough and colder post-frontal surface
temperatures. All in all, more details will become available as we
get closer in time, so keep updated with the forecast!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025
Mid-level VFR cigs will progressively lower during the next
several hours, eventually prevailing at 5-6 kft for much of the
overnight period. Increasing ascent will result in the
development of rain showers around and after 05z, and this
activity should initially affect Metroplex area airports and
locations to the north and east. With temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s at the time of precipitation, this may necessitate some
deicing operations. As the overnight rain activity moves east
after daybreak, renewed shower development is expected across
Central Texas which will begin to affect the Waco TAF site after
12z. In addition, MVFR cigs at 2-3 kft will begin to fill in
before the passage of another weak cold front set to arrive
Monday afternoon. This boundary will do little other than to
reinforce a northwesterly wind around 10 kts, following an
eastward veering that will have occurred prior to its arrival. As
drier air filters in on Monday evening, low cigs will quickly
scatter between 00-02z with VFR prevailing thereafter.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 36 42 30 49 / 20 20 10 0
Waco 39 47 31 51 / 20 20 10 0
Paris 33 37 24 46 / 20 40 20 0
Denton 32 42 24 50 / 20 20 10 0
McKinney 33 41 26 48 / 20 30 10 0
Dallas 37 43 30 50 / 20 30 10 0
Terrell 35 42 27 49 / 20 40 10 0
Corsicana 40 46 32 51 / 20 40 10 0
Temple 38 48 31 54 / 20 30 10 0
Mineral Wells 33 47 26 56 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
