Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
281
FXUS64 KFWD 202352
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
652 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures will continue to exceed 100 degrees for the
next several days. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
remain in effect for portions of the area.
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible today and Friday during the
afternoon and evening, but most areas will remain rain-free
into next week.
- Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased
wildfire starts through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Another very hot afternoon is on tap, with high temperatures
expected to climb to 100-108 degrees once again. Fortunately, dew
points will mix out sufficiently again today, keeping heat index
values within a few degrees of actual temperatures. Very similar
weather is expected again on Friday, so the Extreme Heat Warning
and Heat Advisory have been extended through Friday evening.
Aside from the hot temperatures, the upper level ridge axis is
currently near the Four Corners Region, with north flow prevailing
aloft over the Southern Plains. A weak upper level disturbance
will move southward through the Southern Plains and is expected
to kick off a few thunderstorms in southwestern Oklahoma. Some of
this activity may skirt our northeastern counties this afternoon
and evening, and gusty winds and lightning will be the main
hazards. On Friday, higher PWATs will shift westward into the
region, with another upper level disturbance expected to move
overhead, embedded in northerly flow aloft. As a result, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
region, though most locations will remain dry with only 10-20%
coverage. Coverage will be highest across our eastern zones where
30% PoPs are currently advertised. The main concern with any of
this activity will be the potential for downburst winds given
temperature-dew point spreads will be upwards of 40+ degrees.
Lightning strikes may also be capable of starting new wildfires.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Triple digit heat and generally rain-free weather is expected to
continue through the extended period. Heat headlines will likely
need to be extended on a daily basis through the upcoming weekend
and potentially into next week as well. Afternoon convection will
linger into Friday evening but should dissipate near sunset. Some
guidance is developing a complex of storms in Oklahoma which
could potentially skirt our northeastern zones Friday night into
Saturday morning (more reminiscent of early June), so some low
(20%) PoPs have been advertised to reflect this potential.
Otherwise, no relief is in sight for our ongoing August heat.
While the wildfire threat will continue to remain below elevated
levels thanks to relatively light wind speeds, wildfire starts
will remain a concern due to the very hot temperatures, dry fuels,
and low relative humidity.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
VFR and southerly winds around 10 kts will prevail through the
period.
The thunderstorms currently affecting far southeast Oklahoma are
expected to weaken as they continue to drift south this evening,
with the better potential for organized convection expected to
remain well east of the Metroplex. Convective redevelopment is
possible Friday afternoon near the sagging weak surface boundary
in southern Oklahoma. However, the coverage of storms as they
approach the D10 terminals is still expected to be too scattered
(and focused primarily over East Texas) to justify including any
mention of operational impacts in the TAFs with this update.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 106 82 106 / 10 20 20 10
Waco 79 104 79 104 / 0 20 20 0
Paris 77 104 76 103 / 20 20 30 20
Denton 80 106 80 106 / 10 20 20 10
McKinney 80 104 79 105 / 10 20 20 10
Dallas 83 107 82 107 / 10 20 20 10
Terrell 79 105 78 105 / 10 30 30 10
Corsicana 79 104 79 104 / 0 30 20 0
Temple 77 104 78 104 / 0 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 77 107 77 107 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-131>134.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ129-130-135-141>148-
156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
