Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
860
FXUS64 KFWD 160551
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog Monday morning could lead to a temporary reduction in
visibility.
- Warm and dry conditions will increase the potential for fire
starts across western North and Central Texas Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Mostly clear skies and light winds will continue to promote fairly
effective radiational cooling overnight tonight and we`re already
seeing quite a range in temperatures across the region. Temps
range from the low 40s to mid 50s depending on location and wind
speed. For the rest of tonight, winds will generally be light and
variable with some thin high clouds streaming across the state
limiting optimal cooling. Our main concern will be the potential
for areas of fog to develop with wet soils in place and
temperatures falling to near the dewpoint. Any fog that develops
will dissipate by mid morning as southerly winds increase beneath
mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will also climb back into the mid
and upper 70s.
Quiet weather will continue through Tuesday, but an amplifying
trough over the western CONUS will promote rapid surface
cyclogenesis across the Central Plains during this time. This will
result in strengthening south-southwesterly flow across North
Texas and will help send temperatures into the mid 80s for areas
west of I-35. A dryline will approach our western counties and
will result in afternoon RH values dropping to less than 25%
across our far western counties. The well above normal temps,
breezy conditions, and low humidity will be favorable for an
uptick in fire starts across our far western counties.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Well above normal temperatures will continue through the end of
the week with little chance for rainfall through Friday. Fire
weather concerns will continue Wednesday and Thursday afternoons
when RH values plummet to around 15% for areas west of I-35.
Despite lighter wind speeds, these very low humidity values will
support grass fire activity both afternoons.
The upper trough over the western U.S. will begin to spread out
of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Friday as a weak cold front
slides south into North Texas. There is still some uncertainty
with respect to timing and strength of this upper trough which
will impact potential rain chances headed into the weekend. It
does appear that strengthening southerly return flow will pull
moisture northward atop the frontal surface and at least result in
some low rain chances going into next weekend. We`ll continue to
monitor this potential over the coming days.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
VFR will prevail across the region for the next several hours but
light and variable winds beneath most clear skies will likely
allow some fog to develop across parts of North and Central TX.
For now, we`ll maintain some MVFR visibility from 11-15Z at all
sites. VFR will prevail on Monday with southerly winds increasing
to around 10 kt.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 46 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 73 45 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 64 43 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 70 41 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 68 44 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 70 46 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 68 44 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 70 47 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 73 44 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 43 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
