Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
392
FXUS64 KFWD 102301
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
501 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the week with
chances for rain this evening and again late Friday into the
upcoming weekend.
- Above normal temperatures and low humidity west of I-35 may
continue to support a low grass fire threat through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
A cutoff low continues to slowly emerge out of northern Mexico.
In response to the increased lift overspreading much of the
state, widespread virga continues to develop across portions of
the area. Given this is high-based (around 10-12 kft) with a dry
sub-cloud layer, the vast majority of any precipitation is
evaporating prior to reaching the surface. However, intermittent
sprinkles/very light rain will continue to be possible through the
afternoon. A cold front will move through North Texas this
afternoon/early evening and Central Texas this evening/overnight.
We should see an increase in precipitation coverage and intensity
as the front moves through the area, with a transition from virga
to rain showers expected as top-down saturation is achieved.
With very little moisture to work with, the showers won`t produce
much rainfall - only amounting to a few hundredths of an inch at
most for some areas. Precipitation will end from west to east
overnight as the trough departs to our east. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler behind the front, with overnight lows in the 40s
to mid 50s and Wednesday afternoon highs in the mid 60s to mid
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Quiet weather will continue through Thursday and most of Friday
with southerly winds resuming and temperatures returning to the
70s and 80s. There will be a low chance for showers Friday morning
as a weak cold front slides towards the Red River. However, better
rain chances are slated to arrive late Friday through Saturday
night as another cut-off low develops in the Southwest CONUS and
moves east across the region over the upcoming weekend.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
Friday night and will likely continue throughout the day Saturday
(be prepared for a rainy Valentine`s Day!). Moisture return ahead
of this system will be sufficient enough to bring beneficial rain
to much of the region. Current rainfall totals are looking to be
between 1" and 2.5" on average. While embedded thunderstorms are
expected at times, the potential for severe weather is a bit more
uncertain. Marginal instability could develop Saturday afternoon,
particularly across Central Texas. Given there will be plenty of
shear in place, we could see an isolated threat for severe storms
in this area if this occurs, and this will be worth monitoring
over the next few days.
Rain chances are expected to end from west to east Saturday night
as a cold front moves through the region and the upper level
trough gradually departs to our east. We`ll have the potential
for a final round of thunderstorms on the backside of the system
near the Red River through Sunday morning, but instability looks
to be rather negligible. Therefore, severe weather is not expected.
We`re not anticipating a significant cool-down behind this
system, with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday
afternoon and lows in the 40s Sunday night. Another warming trend
will likely transpire early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Overcast and areas of virga continue to persist across North and
Central Texas this evening. Isolated showers are possible this
evening, though coverage is too low to introduce precip into
TAFs. Have kept most likely timeframe with isolated showers in
vicinity of TAF sites as a VCSH FM group. No thunderstorms are
expected. The surface cold front will have pushed south of
Metroplex TAF sites by the start of this TAF period, and will
likely move through KACT sometime between 02Z and 04Z. North winds
at 5-10 kts are expected behind the cold front. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions to prevail the duration of this forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 48 67 48 / 20 40 0 0
Waco 74 52 71 50 / 10 30 0 0
Paris 74 47 67 45 / 20 40 0 0
Denton 76 42 66 42 / 30 40 0 0
McKinney 75 46 67 45 / 20 40 0 0
Dallas 77 50 68 49 / 20 40 0 0
Terrell 76 48 69 46 / 20 40 0 0
Corsicana 77 53 71 50 / 10 30 0 0
Temple 74 51 73 48 / 10 30 0 0
Mineral Wells 77 44 68 43 / 30 50 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
