Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
812
FXUS64 KFWD 261902
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
202 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms are possible again this evening along
and north of I-20 and west of I-35. Very large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
- An active pattern will persist through the upcoming week with
low storm chances through Wednesday and higher storm chances
Thursday and Friday including the potential for heavy rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Attention this afternoon turns to a potentially volatile but
uncertain convective setup across North Texas. A sharpening
dryline will reside across the western portions of the region,
separating a very moist airmass to the east from drier air to the
west. Strong heating combined with steep mid-level lapse rates
will yield moderate to strong instability, with MLCAPE values
generally in the 2500-3500 J/kg range.
Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment, forcing for
ascent remains weak and poorly defined across much of North and
Central Texas. There continues to be an appreciable but
conditional severe weather threat, especially along the southern
extent of the dryline.
Current expectations are for isolated thunderstorm development by
mid to late afternoon along and east of the dryline. Coverage is
expected to remain limited with most of the thunderstorm across
Oklahoma. Any storm that develops will quickly become severe.
Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kts will support organized supercells,
with large to very large hail the dominant threat.
The tornado threat is less certain through the late afternoon,
but will increase into the evening as a strengthening low-level
jet enhances low-level shear. Any sustained supercell that remains
surface-based during this time could acquire rotation capable of
producing a tornado. Any storm that forms will persist into the
evening before gradually weakening or shifting est of the area.
Going into Monday morning, CAMs are struggling to resolve an
emerging shortwave coming out of northern Mexico. The dryline will
still be draped from north to south just west of our region with
abundant moisture in place. Increasing diffluence aloft will
further enhance the forcing for ascent, therefore, there is
roughly a 15% chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorm across
Central Texas. Should storms develop, there will be a risk for a
few strong to marginally severe storms. With MLCAPE ranging from
2500-3000 and lapse rates near 8 C/km, a few hail storms cannot be
ruled out. This activity would move to the east through the
morning hours ahead of the eastward moving dryline. Although large
scale forcing for ascent will be shifting eastward, the presence
of any outflow boundaries may become additional sources of
localized ascent. Storm chances will increase to around 20-30%
across Central Texas in the afternoon. The strength of the cap
tomorrow will be a limiting factor in the risk for severe weather.
However, this will be something to monitor closely over the next
24 hours as MLCAPE between 2500-3500 J/kg and 45-50 kts of deep
layer shear is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
The active weather will continue on Tuesday with a renewed chance
for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. A mid-day shortwave
will be moving overhead along with a 130+ kt jet speed max.
Concurrent with the passing shortwave, a cold front will be
sliding south form Oklahoma, reaching North Texas late in the
afternoon or evening. This will set the stage up a deeply sheared
atmosphere as afternoon heating drives MLCAPE values to near
3000-4000 J/kg. Storms are expected to develop within this
environment and may produce large hail and damaging winds.
Location of storm initialization remains uncertain at this time,
but strong mechanical forcing along the front is expected, the
greatest storm chances will be along the front.
This front is expected to continue moving south overnight into
Wednesday morning. A few post-frontal showers and storms may
develop across Central Texas. The severe weather potential remains
low on Wednesday and Thursday, however, elevated instability and
steep mid-level lapse rates will need to be monitored for the
potential for elevated hail storms. Expect more mid-week forecast
details in the next few days.
By Friday, confidence is increasing that a strong system will move
overhead, leading to widespread precipitation; some of which could
be heavy. Given recent precipitation in some portions of North
and Central Texas, the flooding threat will continue to be
assessed in the coming days. Aside from the rainfall, temperatures
will be in the 60s and 70s to finish out the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Concerns... Low TS potential; MVFR returns tonight.
Southerly winds are ongoing across North and Central Texas with
MVFR lingering longer than previously anticipated. Expect the MVFR
ceilings to climb to VFR between 19-20 as skies become partly
cloudy.
There will be another highly conditional threat for severe storms
this afternoon across the D10 airspace. Today`s thunderstorm
potential is lower than yesterday, however, given the risk for
significant impacts, VCTS continues to be advertised between
00z-03z Monday morning.
Tonight, a surge of moisture will advance northward and lead to
MVFR ceilings across all TAF sites. A brief period of IFR is
possible in Central Texas, generally between 10-14z. In addition,
within the IFR window at Waco, a few showers or storms cannot be
ruled out. The potential for precipitation is below 20%,
therefore, it was not included in the TAF. Should the threat for
precipitation increase, an amendment will be needed to account
for the storm potential.
The poor ceilings are expected to linger into the late morning,
followed by an improvement in the early afternoon. Winds will
continue to be out of the south tomorrow with much lower
precipitation chance in the afternoon compared to previous days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon in
parts of North Texas. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 93 72 88 / 20 10 10 50
Waco 72 90 72 90 / 10 20 20 30
Paris 70 87 68 82 / 20 20 20 60
Denton 71 92 69 87 / 20 10 10 50
McKinney 72 92 70 86 / 20 10 10 50
Dallas 73 94 72 88 / 20 10 10 50
Terrell 72 90 71 86 / 10 20 20 50
Corsicana 74 92 73 90 / 0 20 20 40
Temple 72 91 72 92 / 10 20 20 20
Mineral Wells 70 94 68 89 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
