Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
422
FXUS64 KFWD 171746
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions will increase the potential for fire
starts across western North and Central Texas today through
Thursday.
- A cold front early this weekend will knock temperatures back to
near-normal into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Widespread high clouds currently overspread North and Central
Texas as upper-level moisture streams out ahead of Western CONUS
troughing. Despite this cloud cover, temperatures are still
expected to rise into the mid 70s to low 80s across much of the
region this afternoon, with a few locations west of Highway 281
ticking up into the mid 80s. Elevated fire weather conditions will
be limited to our far western counties this afternoon (Eastland,
Stephens, Young) as a dryline encroaches on our forecast area from
the west. Southwesterly wind gusts as high as 25-30 mph will
overlap afternoon RH below 30% for a few hours this afternoon in
these counties.
Temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above-average for mid-February will
continue through the middle of this week. The elevated fire
weather threat will gradually shift eastward Wednesday and
Thursday as a Pacific front overtakes the dryline and drags lower
surface dewpoints and subsequent lower RH toward the I-35
corridor. West-southwesterly winds will be lighter Wednesday, but
temperatures in the upper 70s, minimum afternoon RH below 20%, and
drying fine fuels will support an environment conducive to grass
fire starts Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Thursday will likely feature the greatest fire weather threat
along/west of I-35 this week as skies become mostly sunny and
winds increase some out of the west during the afternoon hours.
Additionally, finer fuels will continue to dry out further into
this week after the past weekend`s widespread wetting rainfall.
Expect temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, afternoon RH below 20%,
and sustained westerly winds at 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph at
times on Thursday. Avoid any activities that could lead to new
fire starts!
Surface low pressure will shift out of the Central Plains and
towards the Great Lakes region late in the work week dragging an
attendant weak cold front into North Texas Thursday night. Cooler
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s behind the front allowing
for some RH recovery and light northeasterly winds will tamper the
fire weather threat Friday afternoon. Isentropic ascent atop of
this shallow frontal surface ahead of a Four Corners upper trough
may lead to the development of isolated to scattered showers
Friday night into Saturday, primarily along and east of I-35.
Rainfall totals will likely remain very light, generally less than
a tenth of an inch. A stronger push of cool air will arrive during
the day Saturday knocking afternoon highs back into the mid 50s to
low 60s Sunday and Monday, near normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
VFR conditions with streaming high clouds overhead will prevail
through much of the TAF period. Expect sustained southerly winds
at 15-20 kts gusting to 25-30 kts at times through this evening
before the wind gusts subside generally after 02Z-03Z. Winds will
gradually veer more southwesterly tonight becoming westerly by
early Wednesday morning. There is a low chance that MVFR cigs
approach KACT and the eastern Metroplex sites for a few hours
late tonight, but a more westerly component to the low-level winds
should keep these clouds largely east of the TAF sites.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 80 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 59 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 58 75 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 52 78 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 56 77 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 58 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 59 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 62 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 58 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 52 81 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
