Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
047
FXUS64 KFWD 261139
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
639 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms will continue along the Red River this
morning with a large hail threat.
- Isolated severe storms are expected again this evening along and
north of I-20 and west of I-35. Very large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats.
- An active pattern will persist through the upcoming week with
low storm chances through Wednesday and higher storm chances
Thursday and Friday including the potential for heavy rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
A couple of tweaks to the morning forecast...An elevated
supercell continues across Grayson and Fannin counties this
morning aided by a modest low level jet atop a slightly cooler
convectively cooled airmass. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will
still support a large hail threat with this storm for another 1-2
hours. The storm has begun to turn more rightward indicative of a
mature supercell and is likely to produce hail >2" downstream.
We`ll maintain localized high PoPs in this area for another couple
of hours.
Also added some low mentionable PoPs (~10%) again for our western
counties as it now appears that convective outflow from these
morning storms and a sharpening dryline will focus an area of
convergence off to the northwest of the Metroplex in another
highly unstable afternoon environment. While the high resolution
guidance is typically all over the place with respect to the location
of storm development in these types of environments with modest
capping, the trend toward more convection in the guidance suggests
that they`re picking up on sufficient forcing to get through this
capping. While we won`t specifically forecast a repeat of
yesterday, the parameter space is certainly sufficient for a
repeat of isolated supercells with a very large hail and damaging
wind threat. Weaker low level winds may limit tornado potential,
but given extreme instability and a strengthening low level jet
after dark, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The general
threat area will be similar to Saturday night`s storms.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
Scattered severe storms continue tonight over the Metroplex with
additional isolated activity north of I-20 toward the Red River.
Two main supercell storms appear to be riding an old convective
outflow boundary and have produced swaths of severe hail and flash
flooding. These storms will have ample instability to work with
for another few hours before stronger inhibition takes over and
storm intensity begins to wane. Farther to the north of the two
main supercells...isolated convective activity will continue
through the overnight hours aided by weak persistent forcing for
ascent and modest low level warm advection. We`ll maintain
scattered PoPs through the rest of the overnight mainly north of
I-20 and east of I-35.
In the wake of this early morning convective activity, atmospheric
recovery will be rather quick with southerly flow resuming by mid
morning and instability climbing into the afternoon. With the
southerly flow and southwest winds above the surface, capping will
develop atop the moist boundary layer. This capping will likely be
stronger than Saturday, and should generally inhibit additional
storm development during peak heating. Troughing will become a
little more amplified and a shortwave trough will eject into the
Central Plains by late in the day. Right now it looks like this
forcing will be displaced too far north for any storms to develop
in our area. We`ll keep PoPs at 10%, but similar to Saturday, any
isolated storms that can develop would pose a threat for severe
weather. Activity would diminish during the late evening hours
with Sunday night being mostly quiet, warm and humid.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
The forecast through next week will feature periodic storm chances
with the threat for widespread showers and storms during the
latter part of the week. The aforementioned troughing over the
western CONUS will become slightly more amplified through Monday
with several shortwave troughs spreading eastward into the Plains.
On Monday, a Pacific front/dryline will push as far east as the
I-35 corridor with the main forcing well to our north. Widespread
severe weather is expected across the Midwest, but a trailing
frontal boundary will likely be supportive of thunderstorms
during the afternoon. We`ll have PoPs around 20% for this time. On
Tuesday an actual cold front will slide south through the Plains
and should be near the Red River by late in the day. A dryline
will also be positioned across our western counties as a more
pronounced trough moves through the Southern Plains. This should
again be enough for scattered storms to develop across North
Texas, favoring areas near the Red River. This frontal boundary
should slide south of the area on Wednesday then retreat back to
the north late Thursday and Friday as a potent shortwave kicks out
across northwest Mexico. This will likely result in widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the region late Thursday night
into Friday. Some widespread heavier rainfall amounts may occur
during this time. We`ll continue to refine this forecast over the
coming days.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026
MVFR and IFR cigs are rapidly filling in across North Texas this
morning and this should linger through midday. We`ll start off
with BKN018 at most sites with a TEMPO for BKN009 through 14Z.
Cigs should start to lift and scatter a bit by mid/late morning as
stronger southerly winds and deeper mixing commences. VFR should
return this afternoon and prevail through late tonight.
There is a low chance again for isolated severe thunderstorms to
develop across western parts of the area and move into the D10
airspace this evening. We`ll leave the mention of TS out of the
current TAF for now as probs are around 10% currently, but an
additional threat of significant storms is on the table for this
evening. Otherwise, another round of MVFR cigs is expected late
tonight into Monday morning.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and
evening across parts of North Texas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
Waco 89 72 90 72 / 0 10 20 10
Paris 84 70 86 68 / 60 20 20 20
Denton 88 71 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
McKinney 86 72 88 71 / 10 10 10 10
Dallas 89 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10
Terrell 87 72 89 72 / 10 10 20 10
Corsicana 88 74 89 73 / 10 10 20 10
Temple 89 72 89 72 / 10 10 20 10
Mineral Wells 92 70 92 67 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
