Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
783
FXUS64 KFWD 141844
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
144 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a low chance (10-20%) for a stray shower or
thunderstorm this evening and Friday evening.
- More robust rain chances (30-60%) return to the region daily
beginning Sunday and into the middle of next week. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible during this time frame.
- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
...Today and Tonight...
Longwave upper-level ridging and persistent southerly flow at the
surface will bring another day of plentiful sun and above average
temperatures to the region. High temperatures will range from the
upper-80s into the lower-90s. Despite a strong capping inversion
in place, a weak shortwave disturbance embedded in the ridging
flow aloft will bring the potential for a stray shower or
thunderstorm late this evening into the early overnight hours.
This potential will likely be confined to locations north of I-20
and west of the I-35 corridor. Any convection that is able to
develop and sustain itself into this area will be elevated, and as
such severe weather is not expected. Overnight lows will be on
the warmer side (upper-60s and lower-70s) due to 10-15 mph
southerly winds persisting into the overnight hours.
...Friday...
By tomorrow, ridging over the southern Great Plains looks to de-
amplify as troughing builds in over the Great Basin and Rockies. A
shortwave trough is expected to eject out into Texas from the
southern Rockies as Gulf moisture surges northward across much of
the southern Great Plains. Fortunately, a stout capping inversion
will again inhibit surface based convection across the area.
However, isolated elevated showers/thunderstorms will again be
possible during the evening hours, particularly west of I-35 and
north of I-20. Highs will continue to be above average ranging
from the upper-80s to the mid-90s. The warmest temperatures are
expected across portions of the Big Country. Severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.
It is worth mentioning that even if storms develop Thursday and/or
Friday, the vast majority of people in North and Central Texas
will remain dry.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
...Friday Night through Saturday Night...
After the departure of tomorrow`s shortwave trough, weak ridging
will build back into the southern Great Plains. The lack of any
forcing mechanisms and strong capping will result in dry conditions
and above average temperatures. Expect overnight lows to be in
upper-60s/lower-70s with highs on Saturday ranging from the
upper-80s to the lower-90s.
...Sunday and Monday...
On Sunday, the upper-level flow regime will shift to become
predominantly southwesterly as troughing out west begins to nudge
into the Central CONUS. Stronger flow aloft will also return as
the core of the subtropical jet moves overhead, bringing 300 hPa
flow of 50-80 knots. At the surface, a dryline is expected to
sharpen west of the area as rich boundary layer moisture advects
northward from the Gulf. Humidity may become oppressive at times
with dewpoints increasing to the 70s and afternoon temperatures
remaining in the upper-80s and lower-90s. Strong low-level
moisture advection will not only be responsible for isolated
showers across Central Texas Sunday morning, but in conjunction
with diurnal heating will help erode the capping inversion by
later Sunday afternoon. As such, weak forcing for ascent from
small disturbances in the upper-level flow in addition to low-
level lift in proximity to the dryline will likely result in
isolated thunderstorm development from the northern Hill Country
into the Red River Valley. While there are still questions about
how much the cap will erode Sunday evening, medium range model
guidance all resolve some sort of convective signal in QPF,
supporting the notion of isolated thunderstorm development (15-30%
chance).
On Monday, slightly cooler temperatures above the boundary layer
and continued low-level moisture advection will result in an even
weaker capping inversion by the afternoon/evening hours. This in
combination with weak synoptic forcing for ascent attributed to
the left exit region of a jet streak extending from northern
Mexico into East Texas will likely result in more scattered
thunderstorm development (30-60% chance). Both days, the airmass
across North and Central Texas will be very unstable with SBCAPE
ranging from 2500 to 4000 J/kg. This in conjunction with
sufficient deep layer shear (25-35 knots sfc to 500 hPa) will
create an environment which will allow any storms that can
develop to potentially become strong or severe. Continue to
monitor the forecast as confidence in exact coverage, timing, and
potential severe threats will become more clear over the next
couple of days.
Other than the potential for storms, temperatures will moderate
slightly (though still remaining above average) due to the
increase in boundary layer moisture. Expect highs in the mid and
upper-80s during this time frame.
...Midweek Next Week...
Forecast details become more uncertain during this time frame
owing to run to run inconsistencies amongst medium range guidance,
particularly with the progression and strength of a potential
cold front. However, the general weather pattern will continue to
support the chance for daily thunderstorms. Owing to the
instability of the airmass in place ahead of this cold front,
forcing along the front itself and the dryline further west, and
subtle synoptic forcing for ascent associated with continued
troughing over the Rockies and Central CONUS, some of these storms
will again potentially be strong to severe. More exact details
with regards to areal extent, timing, and magnitude of these
stronger storms will come into focus over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026
VFR conditions and gusty south winds of 10-20 knots will prevail
through 12Z Friday. After 12Z Friday, TAF sites may see winds
gusts in the 25-30 knot range, also out of the south.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 90 70 89 / 10 0 10 0
Waco 68 88 70 87 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 67 87 69 85 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 68 89 70 88 / 10 0 20 0
McKinney 68 89 70 88 / 0 0 10 0
Dallas 71 90 71 90 / 10 0 10 0
Terrell 67 89 70 88 / 0 0 10 0
Corsicana 67 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 67 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 68 90 68 89 / 10 0 20 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
