Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
068
FXUS64 KFWD 151030
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
Texas this afternoon.
- Well above normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and low
humidity will lead to an elevated fire threat mainly west of
I-35 today.
- Slightly cooler weather and some low rain chances return late
weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Water vapor imagery places North Central Texas on the western
periphery of an anomalously strong subtropical ridge currently
centered over the Deep South. 0400Z objective RAP analysis depicts
500mb heights of 596dam at its center, which is considered strong
even for mid-summer standards. The FWD 15/00Z RaOb recorded 500mb
heights of 593dam, near the highest ever recorded of 594dam per
the SPC sounding climatology archive for this time of the year.
As the potent mid-level cyclone straddling the
North Dakota/Canada border continues to translate northeast into
Ontario, heights will rise across the Plains as further
strengthening of the ridge will extend its magnitude of influence
west across the region. Associated synoptic subsidence and a lack of
any mesoscale surface features will maintain the monotonous weather
pattern experienced as of late, with hot, dry, and mostly clear
conditions once again expected for the day on Tuesday. Southerly
flow early this morning will allow for the best moisture return
to occur east of I-35; despite efficient diurnal heating and
subsequent PBL mixing/deepening, surface dewpoints will only fall
to the upper 60s. Coupled with high temperatures in the upper 90s
to lower 100s, heat indices in excess of 105 can be expected. The
Heat Advisory has been extended through 8pm for these locations
east of I-35.
An elevated fire weather environment will exist today as it did
yesterday, with low humidity and well above normal temperatures.
As the upper- air pattern flattens out across the northern CONUS
ahead of the next shortwave set to amplify into the Pacific
Northwest, mid- level flow will assume an orthogonal component to
the Rockies and will manifest some continued lee troughing and a
resultant tightening of the pressure gradient along and just east
of the Southern High Plains. Winds up to 20mph will be common west
of I-35, in addition to RH values around 30% during the
afternoon.
The westward expansion and eventual westward translation of the
ridge will keep the region hot and dry through midweek. Some
enhanced sea breeze activity may try to work some precipitation
chances into the Brazos Valley on Thursday, though current
expectations are for a majority of that activity to remain in
Southeast Texas.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Monday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
The aforementioned anomalously strong upper ridge will be centered
over the Arklatex late Thursday into Friday but indications are
that it will weaken a bit going into the upcoming weekend as
troughing amplifies over the western CONUS and an upper trough
moves westward across the northern Gulf. As a result, heights will
lower through the weekend across the Southern Plains with the
pattern becoming more active to the north. A cold front will slide
southward on Sunday and should enter our Red River counties after
dark and will be accompanied by slightly cooler air and perhaps
some increasing rain chances. While the strongest forcing for
ascent will remain displaced to our north during this time, we
should see an increase in storm potential late in the day Sunday
ahead of the front and continuing into Sunday night and Monday.
While it doesn`t appear that we`ll receive hugely beneficial
rainfall, these may be some of the higher widespread rain chances
that we`ve seen in quite a while.
Until then, hot and dry conditions will prevail through the end of
the week with highs near 100 each day and heat indices near 105
degrees. The threat for grass fire activity will also continue
through the week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
KACT: Ragged low clouds of bases 1,700 - 2,000 ft have been
intermittently moving overhead this morning. 1030Z satellite
trends suggest a continuation of only SCT coverage, though brief
periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out through around 1600Z.
VFR will then prevail at both the ACT and D10 TAF sites through
the period. Southerly winds of 8-14 kts may gust to 20kts at
times, however spreads remain below thresholds for operational
significance. Some fair weather cumulus of bases ~7 kft can be
expected.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 99 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 101 81 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 101 74 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
