Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 162350 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

/00Z TAFs/

Expected Impacts: A cold front will move through North and
Central Texas tomorrow, bringing a northerly wind shift through
the Metroplex around 17-20Z and KACT around 19-22Z...No precip is
expected and VFR will prevail.

Meteorological Details: The backside of a retreating high pressure
center is in control of North and Central Texas this evening with
south winds prevailing. A blanket of non-consequential upper level
cirrus over the area and VFR at all terminals will continue through
the night. Despite the cloud cover, a strong radiational inversion
will develop this evening lowering the wind speeds to less than 10
kts area wide through the overnight hours. A veering 925-850 mb LLJ
between 25-30 kts will develop around the same time and help to
advect slightly increased low level moisture into the area. A few
patchy areas of MVFR stratus may develop across Central Texas after
around midnight, however, the veering winds will prevent widespread
stratus development. The surface winds will also gradually veer
through the early morning hours eventually setting out of the
southwest shortly after sunrise.

A cold front will be moving through North and Central Texas
tomorrow. ATTM, it is expected to move through the D10 terminals
around 17-20Z and KACT around 19-22Z. A more precise timing will
come into focus as the front starts moving into Oklahoma tonight.
The lack of deep moisture return ahead of the front will prevent
the development of post-frontal stratus or precipitation,
therefore a wind shift will be the primary impacts of the front.
Northerly winds between 8-12 kts with a few gusts up to 15 kts are
possible through the early afternoon hours tomorrow.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 251 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019/

/Through Sunday/

Tranquil conditions will persist over the next 24 to 36 hours
across North and Central Texas, despite the passage of a weak
frontal boundary through the area.

High clouds continue to spill overhead as a fetch of mid/upper
level moisture streams in ahead of our Baja California upper low
tonight and into the day on Sunday. While these clouds will
persist through the overnight hours, the dry conditions and
largely light winds should still support ideal boundary layer
decoupling and thus optimize radiational cooling. I`ll trend
overnight low temperatures down toward the cooler side of the
guidance envelope. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s areawide
with some locations near "freezing" possible across East Texas and
across lower/sheltered locations.

On Sunday, a cold front will approach from the northwest and by
the end of the day will have swept through the entire forecast area.
Low level moisture will only be sufficient for some patchy
stratus in the morning across Central Texas. Otherwise, frontal
passage (FROPA) should occur without much fanfare. Locations near
and northwest of a Lampasas to Terrell line will likely
experience FROPA prior to peak heating and it`s probable that
temperatures here will only top out in the low to possibly mid
60s. Ahead of the boundary, veered low level flow will support
above normal warmth and I`ve nudged temperatures upward toward the
warmer ADJECE (European MOS) with readings in the upper 60s and
low 70s. While wind speeds are not expected to be terribly strong
pre- and post- FROPA, recent freezes and 60 day percent of normal
rainfall values below 40% may support some small initial attack
type fire activity (and we`ve seen some of this today). As implied
above, there won`t be much moisture for this front to work with
and I`ve kept the forecast rain-free for sunday.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 251 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019/

/Next Week/

Little change to the ongoing forecast. Dry and warm with above
normal temperatures through mid week, then cooler and more
unsettled the latter half of the week. Not overly cold, however.

Dry northwest flow aloft early Monday will transition to a
shortwave mid level ridge across the Southern Plains later in the
day and through Tuesday. Like last week, this will be what is
termed a "dirty" ridge, as embedded shortwave energy will result
in plenty of mid-high clouds, but too dry in the lower levels for
any rainfall. At the surface, departing high pressure and the
return of modest southwest to south winds across the area. Only
modified Gulf moisture will arrive back north with low humidity
values near critical levels bringing a borderline elevated fire
weather threat across much of the area. Highs of 65 to 70 degrees
Monday will moderate to the lower to mid 70s both Tuesday and
Wednesday despite period high level cloudiness.

For the end of the week, we continue to monitor a detached mid
level low across the eastern Pacific off the Northwest Mexico
coastline. As this system gets kicked east-northeast by a new
system dropping down the California coastline, clouds will
increase by late Wednesday into Wednesday night with increasing
rain chances. Both moisture and instability will be fairly limited
during this time, so we do not expect any severe weather or any
heavy rain during this time frame. A few high-based or elevated
rumbles of thunder will be possible, but quality of moisture and
dept will be lacking.

This lead mid level impulse will interact the next significant
surface cold front arriving on Thursday for decent convective
chances along and ahead of the cold front. This system will be
very progressive and race off to the northeast and exit the area
on Thursday evening; with the cold front departing toward the
Texas Coast. Despite 50 knot-plus deep layer southwest shear,
instability both surface-based and aloft look very marginal. Thus
I do not anticipate any severe weather, though if there were to be
a strong storm with small hail, this would be the day.

Cooler temperatures associated with surface high pressure arrive
for the remaining end of the week Thursday night through Friday
night. I have continued to follow the slower deterministic
European and GEFS ensemble solutions with the deep mid level low
across the lower latitudes of SoCal/AZ/and western NM. Shortwave
ridging should bring a brief lull later Thursday night into Friday
morning before our Southwest CONUS mid level low begins to finally
open up and get on the move toward our area. Looks like more wet,
cool, and unsettled weather returning Friday afternoon and
continuing Friday night into early next weekend. Fortunately,
there are signs of a drying trend for much of the latter half of
next weekend -- though it remains cool with continued cyclonic
flow overhead.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    39  64  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                37  69  41  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               35  60  39  65  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              38  62  40  69  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            37  62  40  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              39  64  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             36  67  41  67  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           37  68  42  68  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              38  71  41  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       37  63  39  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion