Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
634
FXUS64 KFWD 220919
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
319 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
...New LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is expected to develop across portions of the area this
morning and may be dense at times, with visibility reducing to a
quarter of a mile or less for some areas.
- Wintry precipitation is expected to begin as early as Friday
afternoon and will continue through Sunday morning. Associated
travel impacts will likely linger into at least Monday.
- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero could
result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Extreme cold
will become life threatening to people and animals, especially
Saturday and Sunday nights.
- Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes
and water damage due to a prolonged period of sub-freezing
temperatures late Friday through Tuesday.
- Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be
completed today!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Benign weather is expected through the short-term period as we
await our impending winter weather slated to arrive on Friday.
We`re starting to see patchy fog develop across the region, with
this trend expected to continue through the morning. Most of the
fog will likely be confined to Central Texas, but there will be a
low potential for fog to develop across portions of North Texas as
well. Additionally, dense fog will be possible at times, with
visibility reducing to 1/4 mile or less for some areas. We`ll be
monitoring trends through the morning in the event a Dense Fog
Advisory is needed for portions of the area. Any fog should
dissipate by mid to late morning, but we`ll likely remain socked
in with low stratus for the remainder of the day. Afternoon highs
will climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Wintry precipitation and dangerous cold are expected Friday
through early next week. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect
Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. An Extreme Cold Watch
remains in effect Saturday through Monday morning.
- What`s Changed? -
Latest guidance has trended a bit later with the arrival of
arctic air and onset of wintry precipitation.
- Discussion -
Widespread rain is expected to develop throughout the day Friday as
isentropic ascent strengthens across the region with the arrival
of a shortwave trough. The highly anticipated Arctic front will
move through North Texas during the afternoon (a bit later than
previously forecast), and Central Texas Friday evening/overnight.
Temperatures will begin a steady decline behind the front, and as
they fall to near or below freezing from north to south, a
gradual transition to a sleet/freezing rain mix is expected to
transpire. This transition will likely begin along the Red River
around mid afternoon, the Metroplex/I-20 corridor late in the
evening, and northern portions of Central Texas after midnight
Friday night. It`s highly likely far Central Texas/the Brazos
Valley will see a cold rain through Friday night, with a
transition to a wintry mix likely not occurring until sometime
Saturday.
As additional shortwaves eject out ahead of their parent
trough/upper low over the Baja Peninsula and northern Mexico,
overrunning will continue to allow multiple rounds of widespread
precipitation to develop and move across the region Saturday
through Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue to drop for
most areas on Saturday as the Arctic air deepens across the
region. As this occurs, sleet will likely become the predominant
precipitation type across portions of the forecast area (mainly
North Texas), with a freezing rain/sleet mix likely to continue
across Central Texas. Most of North Texas is expected to see a
transition to a sleet/snow mix Saturday night, with a full
transition to snow for areas near the Red River. Wintry
precipitation will linger into Sunday but will gradually taper
off from west to east throughout the day as the upper trough
moves overhead. Very cold temperatures will continue Sunday with
highs in the 20s areawide. Dangerous subzero wind chills are
expected both Saturday night and Sunday night, dropping as low as
10 below zero at times. Cold temperatures will continue on Monday,
with some locations remaining below freezing for another day,
mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Fortunately, clouds
are expected to clear out Sunday night, bringing sunny skies back
to the region on Monday. Temperatures will continue to moderate
through the middle of next week, but cold mornings in the 20s will
continue.
- Expected Accumulations -
Ice (Freezing Rain):
- 0.10" to 0.50" on average, with high-end totals up to 0.75".
- If a slower transition to mostly sleet occurs, ice
accumulations could be higher.
Snow/Sleet:
- North Texas: 2" to 5" on average, with isolated 6" possible.
Highest totals along and north of Highway 380.
- Central Texas: 1/2" to 2"
- These accumulations could increase if an earlier transition to
sleet and/or snow occurs.
- Impacts -
Impacts to travel will likely begin late Friday afternoon or
early evening for areas near the Red River, with conditions
deteriorating from north to south with the transition to a wintry
mix Friday night into Saturday. Travel impacts will peak Saturday
and Sunday as multiple rounds of heavy wintry precipitation impact
the region. Ice accumulations on trees and power lines will have
the potential to cause power outages across the region.
Impacts will likely linger through the Monday morning commute.
Some improvement may occur on Monday as sunny skies return, but
any liquid left on the ground Monday evening will refreeze Monday
night into Tuesday morning.
- What You Should Do -
Finalize all of your winter preparations today. Consider delaying
any weekend travel, and be prepared for impacts to continue
through the Monday morning commute. Continue to monitor the
forecast for the latest information. Wear multiple layers if you
go outside this weekend. Check on any vulnerable family, friends,
and neighbors.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Concerns...fog potential tonight/this morning. Low stratus
expected for most of the period. Rain will develop across the
region Friday morning, with a strong cold front arriving Friday
afternoon.
Most TAF sites are currently VFR but conditions are expected to
deteriorate through the morning. MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings will
overspread the region, with fog expected to result in reductions
to visibility, especially after 12Z this morning. Visibility
trends may be a little too optimistic for D10 TAFs, but confidence
in IFR visibilities was too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. However, we will monitor trends through the morning and
amend as needed. IFR/LIFR visibilities will be possible at KACT
later this morning.
Any fog should dissipate by late morning, but we`ll likely remain
socked in with MVFR ceilings through Thursday night. Skies may
very briefly scatter out this afternoon, allowing VFR to return
for a very short period of time. However, this looks to be very
brief (if it happens at all), so it has not been advertised in
the latest TAF. Winds will be out of the east to northeast around
5 knots or so through the period.
Looking beyond the extended TAF period, widespread precipitation
will persist throughout the day Friday, with a strong cold front
bringing northeast winds to the region by Friday afternoon. A
transition from rain to a wintry mix is expected to occur in the
Metroplex Friday evening, most likely around or after 03Z Saturday
(09Z or after for KACT).
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 42 48 26 / 0 10 70 100
Waco 64 48 55 30 / 0 10 60 90
Paris 54 38 44 23 / 0 10 50 100
Denton 59 37 46 22 / 0 10 70 100
McKinney 58 40 46 25 / 0 10 70 100
Dallas 60 43 49 26 / 0 10 70 100
Terrell 59 42 48 27 / 0 10 60 90
Corsicana 64 48 54 31 / 0 10 50 90
Temple 66 49 58 32 / 0 10 50 90
Mineral Wells 61 40 48 23 / 0 10 80 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
