Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
014
FXUS64 KFWD 162350
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
650 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers/storms will continue for another few hours
before diminishing this evening. Additional showers/storms are
expected mainly west of I-35 overnight.
- Low storm chances (~20%) will occur on Friday mainly across our
western counties.
- Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next
week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening
mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor where modest forcing
for ascent continues around the eastern periphery of an upper low.
This activity should decrease in coverage through 9 pm with loss
of heating but some low PoPs will persist into the overnight.
We`ve adjusted PoPs upward slightly through 9 pm with the highest
coverage expected to shift back across our far western counties
overnight closer to the upper low. Heavy rainfall will continue to
be the primary threat. Coverage of showers/storms should be
considerably lower on Friday as the upper low drifts farther
westward.
Dunn/Purlee
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
The upper level low that brought multiple rounds of scattered to
widespread precipitation across much of the state is currently
located over West Texas. As a result, the best lift is located
along the western edge of the CWA, and scattered shower and storm
activity (40-50%) is expected to be confined to areas west of
I-35. To the east, heights are beginning to rise, bringing
subsidence and limiting chances for convection to below 40% and
decreasing as you move eastward. Multiple rounds of convection
will be possible this afternoon and evening, as subtle impulses
rounding the upper low trigger redevelopment. The primary hazard
with this activity remains heavy rain and isolated flash flooding,
along with a risk of gusty downburst winds. Activity should come
to an end after sunset.
The upper level low continues to shift west, reaching the Southern
Rockies Friday, with high pressure building in overhead. This will
push chances for even isolated showers and storms (15-20%) well to
the west, with mostly dry conditions expected across Central, East,
and most of North Texas. This will be the last day of below normal
temperatures, with some lingering morning cloud cover and ample
surface moisture keeping Friday`s highs in the low 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
As the upper level low continues to meander westward and gradually
fill, high pressure will build in across the center of the country.
As a result, rain chances drop to near zero for the remainder of the
forecast period, while temperatures begin to climb. Highs on
Saturday are expected to run near-normal, thanks to a bit of
lingering cloud cover. But by the start of the coming work week,
temperatures will jump into the upper-90s to low-100s, with heat
indices of 100-107 each day. This heat will likely stick around
through the end of next week, as long-term guidance shows no hint of
the high shifting away.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Scattered TSRA continues mainly in the vicinity of area airports
this evening and we`ll carry a VCTS through 02Z to account for
this activity. Storms should decrease in coverage after that time
with VFR expected to prevail. Some MVFR cigs will likely spread
north early Friday morning and we`ll have a TEMPO for BKN022 to
account for this from 13-16Z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail with
southerly winds increasing to around 15 kt late Friday
morning/afternoon.
Dunn/Purlee
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 92 76 95 / 30 10 0 0
Waco 73 90 75 92 / 40 10 10 0
Paris 73 90 74 93 / 20 10 0 0
Denton 73 92 74 95 / 30 10 0 0
McKinney 74 91 75 94 / 20 10 0 0
Dallas 75 93 77 96 / 30 10 0 0
Terrell 73 92 75 94 / 20 10 0 0
Corsicana 74 92 76 95 / 20 10 0 0
Temple 73 90 74 93 / 40 0 10 0
Mineral Wells 70 90 72 93 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bealo
LONG TERM....Bealo
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
