Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
117
FXUS64 KFWD 080611
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be low chances (10-30%) for rain showers each
afternoon and evening Thursday and Friday.
- A more unsettled pattern will bring multiple rounds of showers
and storms to the region this weekend into next week. Severe
thunderstorms and flooding will be possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
The upper-level disturbance that has brought widespread cloud
cover to the region will depart to our east during the day today.
As such, expect skies to become clear by the afternoon, allowing
highs to warm into the upper-70s and lower-80s. At the surface,
high pressure will move to our east, allowing winds to become more
southerly and advect Gulf moisture up into the area as fuel for
storms later in the forecast period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
...Thursday and Friday...
While longwave troughing will amplify and move into the western
CONUS and Baja regions, flow aloft over the South Plains will
remain relatively weak and zonal. At the surface, continued
southerly flow will advect a humid airmass into the region with
surface dew points rising into the 60s. Weak troughing over the
southern High Plains in conjunction with weak isentropic lift and
diurnal heating will be sufficient for isolated rain showers
(10-30% chance) to develop across Central Texas Thursday afternoon
and evening. Friday, coverage will be more widespread across
Central Texas (30-50%) with isolated showers possible in North
Texas as well (10-30% chance). With the primary forcing still well
to the west and meager instability in place, no severe storms are
expected Thursday or Friday, though a couple thunderstorms can`t
be ruled out.
...Saturday...
By Saturday, a jet streak looks to extend from North Mexico into
the southern Great Plains with longwave troughing over the western
CONUS. At the surface, boundary layer moisture will be rich with
dewpoints in the mid and upper-60s. While the exact timing and
evolution of potential storms this day remains unclear, this is a
favored regime for thunderstorms to develop to the west along and
just east of the dryline and move into North and/or Central Texas
during the evening/overnight hours Saturday night. There looks to
be sufficient shear and instability to support a few strong to
severe thunderstorms, particularly west of US-281.
...Sunday into Next Week...
Persistent troughing over the western CONUS, periodic shortwave
disturbances traversing the southern Great Plains, and a humid
airmass in place will support near daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday into next week. There are a lot of variables
that remain uncertain at this time regarding the specifics of
storm coverage, intensity and evolution in North and Central
Texas. Regardless, this is a favored regime for daily strong to
potentially severe storms in the southern Great Plains, and as
such will need to be watched for potential impacts to the region.
We will begin to have a better idea of timing, coverage,
intensity, etc once we get towards the end of this work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026
South winds at 5 to 10 knots and VFR conditions will prevail at
all TAF sites for the duration of this forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 59 82 63 / 0 0 10 0
Waco 78 58 80 63 / 0 0 20 20
Paris 76 54 79 59 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 77 55 80 60 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 78 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 0
Dallas 79 59 83 63 / 0 0 10 0
Terrell 79 56 81 61 / 0 0 10 0
Corsicana 81 59 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
Temple 79 58 82 62 / 0 0 20 20
Mineral Wells 78 55 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
