Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
906
FXUS64 KFWD 171122
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions will increase the potential for fire
starts across western North and Central Texas today through
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
An extended period of warm and dry weather is underway across
North Texas with temperatures forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees
above normal through the middle of the week. Water vapor imagery
shows troughing off the West Coast of the U.S with a plume of
Pacific moisture streaming eastward across the state. Despite the
cloud cover, we`ll still see high temperatures climb into the
upper 70s and low 80s today. In addition, a dryline will encroach
on our western counties late this afternoon where RH values will
drop to below 30%. A limited grass fire threat is expected across
these far western counties this afternoon given the breezy
conditions. This dryline will be overtaken by a weak Pacific front
on Wednesday which will advance as far east as the I-35 corridor.
Low RH values between 15-20% are expected across our western
counties, however surface winds will be lighter. An expanding
grass fire threat is expected by Wednesday afternoon as fine fuels
will have had plenty of time to dry out after recent rainfall.
Highs on Wednesday will again top out in the upper 70s and lower
80s with no rainfall expected.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
The upper pattern will remain fairly active through the end of the
week with broad troughing over the Western CONUS, but the main
track of disturbances will remain displaced to our north. This
will keep our region beneath strengthening southwesterly flow
aloft and will continue to promote well above normal temperatures
and low afternoon RH. Thursday may be our most active fire weather
day given very low RH values between 15-20% across a good portion
of the area and strengthening westerly winds at the surface. A
weak cold front will slide southward on Friday and will knock high
temperatures back down into the mid/upper 60s and allow RH values
to recover a bit. A secondary push of cooler air is expected to
arrive on Saturday and will bring temperatures back down closer to
seasonal norms through the rest of the weekend and into early next
week. There is still some uncertainty with respect to rain chances
over the weekend, with a majority of the guidance keeping things
dry. We`ll keep some low PoPs in late Friday and Saturday between
frontal passages, but overall rainfall amounts look to be very
light through the weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026
Thick high clouds will continue to stream across the region today
with southerly winds becoming gusty later this morning. Beneath
the canopy of high clouds, a swath of low cloud cover has
developed and surged northward and is entering the D10 airspace at
this time. IFR cigs will be possible for a few hours this morning
and have included a TEMPO for BKN008 cigs at all the Metroplex
airports. It`s possible these miss AFW/FTW, but probs have been
increasing over the last few hours. These low clouds will shift
east and scatter out later this morning with the high cloud cover
lingering. South winds will decrease in speed later tonight and
become more southwesterly.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 57 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 59 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 71 58 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 76 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 73 56 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 76 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 74 59 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 78 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 84 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
