Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
321
FXUS64 KFWD 271054
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot, dry and humid conditions will persist into early next week.
Afternoon heat index values could reach or exceed 105 degrees at
times this weekend into early next week.
- Windy conditions are expected this weekend into Monday, with
gusts between 30-35 mph likely each day. An isolated gust up to
40 mph is not out of the question.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms ongoing across western and
central Oklahoma early this morning should continue to weaken as
they move east/southeast into a less favorable environment.
Stronger inhibition and increasing subsidence on the southern
flank of the Southern Plains ridge should keep this activity north
of our forecast area or cause it to dissipate before reaching the
Red River. A stray shower or a few sprinkles cannot be completely
ruled out across our far northern counties through daybreak, but
the more likely local impact will be passing mid/high cloud debris
with no meaningful rainfall expected.
Otherwise, hot, humid, breezy, and mostly dry weather will
continue through the short term period. Lee troughing to our
northwest will maintain a tight surface pressure gradient, with
gusty southerly winds returning later today and again Sunday.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be common at times, but sustained winds
should remain shy of Wind Advisory criteria for most locations.
Afternoon heat index values will generally peak near 100 to 104
degrees, with localized values slightly higher, while warm and
muggy overnight conditions offer little relief from the heat.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
The dominant feature through the extended period will be the
mid/upper-level ridge centered from the Southern Plains into the
Lower Mississippi Valley, while broad troughing becomes
established over the western CONUS. For North and Central Texas,
this pattern will favor subsidence, a warming column, and little
to no meaningful rain chances. As the western trough deepens,
pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies will help maintain
southerly low-level flow across the Southern Plains, keeping the
breezy and humid pattern in place locally while more organized
storm chances stay well west and north of the forecast area. A
stray shower cannot be completely ruled out near the Red River or
across our far southeastern zones later in the week, but the
signal is too weak and displaced to carry meaningful PoPs at this
time.
Heat and humidity will continue to be the primary forecast
concerns through much of next week. Highs will generally peak in
the mid/upper 90s to near 100 degrees, with peak heat index
values commonly in the 100 to 105 degree range and locally higher
where moisture is slow to mix out. Deterministic NBM temperature
guidance continues to show a localized warm pocket southeast of
the Metroplex that appears to be overdone compared to recent
observational trends, probabilistic guidance, and the surrounding
thermal pattern. The temperature forecast in this area has been
adjusted closer to recent observed trends and the surrounding
temperature gradient, which better matches the expected air mass.
The broader message is unchanged: hot and humid conditions will
persist with limited overnight relief. Southerly winds will be
breezy Sunday and Monday before gradually relaxing later in the
week as the ridge shifts farther east and the surface pressure
gradient eases.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026
MVFR cigs briefly affected several Metroplex terminals and KACT
earlier this morning, but the low cloud deck has since shifted
east of D10. No additional ceiling impacts expected as guidance
now indicates the probability of redeveloping MVFR cigs has fallen
below 30% through the remainder of the morning. VFR prevails at
all TAF sites. A few light radar returns may continue to drift
across North Texas over the next few hours, but drier air in the
lower levels should continue to keep measurable rain from reaching
the surface. Otherwise, south winds will remain elevated through
the day, with sustained speeds increasing to around 15-18 kts
with gusts to near 25-30 kts by late morning and continuing
through the afternoon. Gusty south winds will continue overnight
into Sunday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 93 76 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 98 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 94 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 94 77 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 96 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
