Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
105
FXUS64 KFWD 011855
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
155 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet and warm weather continues today. Low rain chances return
to the region Tuesday and Wednesday (~20-30% coverage).
- A few storms Tuesday could produce gusty winds, but widespread
severe weather is not expected.
- Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
The rest of this afternoon will remain warm and dry as mid-level
ridge axis remains centered over North and Central Texas. Expect
today`s highs to reach the mid 90s across much of the region. Heat
index values will range from 98 to 102 degrees; make sure you`re
staying hydrated if spending time outdoors!
On Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will weaken while a weak backdoor
front approaches the ArkLaTex region. This boundary will
gradually progress to the southwest through the afternoon,
allowing scattered storms to develop initially along and east of
I-35. With continued forward progress, storm chances will also
migrate southeast as the day goes on.
Storm coverage should remain scattered, with the best chances
across North and East Texas. Strong heating and modest instability
will support a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds, small
hail and brief heavy rainfall. The overall severe threat remains
low, but an isolated severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Storms
should decrease Tuesday night with the loss of daytime heating,
though isolated showers or storms may linger into the evening
across eastern portions of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
A subtle pattern change will begin Wednesday as weak upper
troughing spreads out of northern Mexico into West Texas. This
will bring daily low-end storm chances back to portions of North
and Central Texas through late week.
On Wednesday, slightly drier air may filter into the eastern
counties while better moisture and lift remain west of I-35.
Scattered storms may develop along a dryline or weak surface
trough well to our west, with some activity possibly reaching the
western counties late in the day or evening.
A similar setup is expected Thursday, with the better storm
chances generally across western portions of the forecast area. A
few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail, but
organized severe weather remains unlikely.
Rain chances should increase Friday into early Saturday as
stronger height falls overspread North and Central Texas ahead of
the main disturbance. This appears to be the best window for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms, though timing differences
remain among the guidance.
Rain chances should begin to decrease by Sunday as the disturbance
moves east of the region. Temperatures will trend closer to
seasonal normal by mid to late week due to increased cloud cover
and rain chances, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower
90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026
VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period. Winds will
remain out of the south with wind speeds generally below 10 kts.
Winds will gradually become more easterly tomorrow morning with
high clouds streaming across North and Central Texas.
Thunderstorm impacts are not expected through tomorrow morning.
However, as a backdoor cold front approaches our region, a few
storms may develop after 20z. Gusty winds will be possible with
any storm that develops and may cause erratic wind direction and
speed. Thunderstorm potential will be assessed in subsequent TAF
issuances and will be added to the TAF if confidence/probability
of storms increase.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 95 74 89 / 0 20 20 10
Waco 75 92 72 87 / 0 20 30 30
Paris 73 92 69 85 / 10 30 10 0
Denton 75 93 72 87 / 0 20 20 10
McKinney 75 93 71 86 / 0 20 20 0
Dallas 77 96 74 90 / 0 20 20 10
Terrell 74 95 71 88 / 10 20 30 0
Corsicana 74 95 73 90 / 10 20 30 10
Temple 74 92 73 88 / 0 20 30 30
Mineral Wells 72 92 70 86 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
