Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
060
FXUS64 KFWD 251045
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon and
early evening. Gusty winds, small hail, lightning, and brief
heavy rain will be the main concerns.
- Most areas will be quiet Monday night into Tuesday morning
before rain and storm chances increase late Tuesday into
Wednesday.
- Locally heavy rainfall may become a concern Tuesday night and
Wednesday, especially across parts of Central Texas where
repeated storms could lead to renewed flooding issues.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Showers and storms from Sunday`s convection are still raining
themselves out southwest of the Metroplex early this morning, with
radar loops showing a weak MCV and several lingering outflow
boundaries across parts of North and Central Texas. This activity
should continue to trend downward over the next few hours, but the
leftover boundaries and subtle ascent tied to the MCV will remain
important later today. The broader pattern will change little
through Monday, with a diffuse mid/upper-level trough still
overhead and weakly confluent low-level flow near an ill-defined
surface trough. This should allow scattered showers and storms to
redevelop as daytime heating increases, though coverage should
remain lower than Sunday.
The best storm chances Monday afternoon should be near lingering
surface boundaries, but the exact placement will depend on how the
early morning convection evolves. PoPs have been broad-brushed
across the region, generally in the 10-30% range, with the highest
chances where low-level moisture convergence becomes modestly
focused. Weak flow and shear will favor single-cell to loosely
organized multicell convection, with brief strong wind gusts, sub-
severe hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall the
main hazards. A localized damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out
if a stronger core collapses. Saturated soils and efficient rain
rates may also lead to minor flooding concerns where storms
repeatedly affect the same area.
Any storms should diminish Monday evening with the loss of
daytime heating, leaving a mostly quiet night into early Tuesday.
Low clouds or patchy fog cannot be ruled out late Monday night
into Tuesday morning where winds become light and low-level
moisture remains pooled, especially in areas that receive rainfall
Monday afternoon. Otherwise, Tuesday morning should start warm,
humid, and mostly dry while the next more organized disturbance
remains to our west.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Tuesday will start quiet for much of North and Central Texas, but
the pattern will change quickly late in the day and Tuesday night
as the next system moves into Texas. A deep upper low over the
western CONUS will help push a smaller, negatively tilted
disturbance out of the Southwest and into West Texas by Tuesday
evening. Moisture advection ahead of this wave will strengthen
through the day, with dewpoints in the 60s and PWATs climbing
toward 1.4 to 1.6 inches across parts of the region by Tuesday
night. Storms are expected to develop along the dryline, higher
terrain, and other low-level convergence zones to our west Tuesday
afternoon before moving east-northeast toward North and Central
Texas Tuesday night.
By the time storms reach our forecast area, storm interactions
and upscale growth should favor a loosely organized line or
cluster of storms moving into western North and Central Texas.
Forecast soundings ahead of this activity show a moist and
unstable environment, but deep-layer shear generally remains below
30 kt with only modestly steep lapse rates. This should keep the
overall severe threat limited, but a few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible with gusty winds and small hail.
The bigger concern may become locally heavy rainfall, especially
as the convective mode becomes more clustered and storm motions
slow some overnight into Wednesday morning. Weak deep- layer
shear, PWATs approaching 1.6 inches, and 1000+ J/kg of MLCAPE
will support efficient warm-rain processes. There is a low to
moderate chance, around 20-40%, of rainfall totals exceeding 2
inches from Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon across parts
of Central Texas, which may lead to renewed localized flash
flooding concerns.
Rain and storm chances will likely continue through at
least part of Wednesday as the shortwave shears out and broad
ascent lingers over the Southern Plains. The main uncertainty is
whether Tuesday night`s activity moves through cleanly by
Wednesday morning or leaves behind enough boundaries and moisture
for additional showers and storms during the day. Rain chances
should decrease across western North and Central Texas Wednesday
night into Thursday, but low to moderate chances will likely
linger along and east of US-281 through Thursday afternoon before
a more noticeable lull develops Thursday night into Friday
morning. Additional low rain chances may return or linger east of
I-35 Friday afternoon, with another disturbance potentially
bringing renewed storm chances next weekend. Temperatures should
remain near late-May normals through the period, with highs mostly
in the 80s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Showers associated with the lingering MCV remain west of the TAF
sites early this morning and should stay displaced from the
airports through the remainder of the morning. The greater concern
for today will develop later as residual boundaries from Sunday`s
convection become better defined with daytime heating. These
boundaries are draped in several areas across North and Central
Texas and should provide a focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorm development this afternoon.
For the Metroplex terminals, VCTS remains appropriate during the
afternoon with scattered coverage and low confidence in direct
impacts at any one airport. The higher confidence for direct
terminal impacts is at KACT where an outflow boundary is
positioned just south of the airport, placing Waco closer to a
favored corridor for afternoon storms. A TEMPO for TSRA has been
included there for a brief window between 21-23Z, with brief
gusty/erratic winds, lightning, and visibility reduction possible
in any storm. Activity should decrease this evening with VFR
prevailing overnight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 70 85 70 / 20 10 10 90
Waco 85 69 86 69 / 20 10 10 90
Paris 84 65 83 67 / 20 10 10 50
Denton 84 67 84 68 / 20 10 10 90
McKinney 84 67 84 68 / 20 10 10 80
Dallas 86 70 87 70 / 20 10 0 80
Terrell 86 67 86 68 / 30 10 10 70
Corsicana 88 69 88 71 / 30 0 10 80
Temple 86 69 87 70 / 20 10 10 90
Mineral Wells 83 65 84 66 / 20 10 10 90
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
