Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
433
FXUS64 KFWD 292306
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly quiet and warm weather is expected through the weekend
with above normal temperatures and low rain chances (~10-20%).
- Scattered storms return to the forecast area-wide Tuesday
through Thursday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Weak ridging is now moving atop North and Central Texas, producing
large scale subsidence throughout the region. This will help keep
much of the region dry through the tonight. The one exception will
be far northeast Texas, where lingering moisture and the influence
of a trough across Arkansas may lead to a few thunderstorms later
this afternoon. Overall, rain chances will be around 20% for areas
near Sherman to Paris to Sulphur Springs. After sunset, expect
all the precipitation to diminish, leaving behind continued light
southerly winds. Overnight temperatures will be in the 70s with
continued passing high clouds expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
The ridge will continue shifting east tomorrow as large-scale
troughing overtakes much of the western CONUS. With southwesterly
winds in place, a dryline will sharpen Saturday afternoon across
West Texas. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop
along the dryline with a general storm motion to the northeast.
The latest guidance continues to keep the bulk of the storms just
west of our area, however, an isolated thunderstorm late in the
afternoon to early evening cannot be ruled out from near Bowie to
Jacksboro and Graham. Going into Saturday night, any thunderstorm
activity will move away from the region leaving behind
precipitation-free weather.
Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days of the week with highs
in the lower to mid 90s throughout North and Central Texas. This
is in large part due to the building ridge that will expand
northward out of the Gulf. The large scale riding will be short-
lived as the high pressure axis moves east and broad troughing
sets in from the west. An overall stagnant weather pattern is
expected Tuesday through the rest of next week with a fairly good
amount of low-level moisture in place. This will lead to
increasing afternoon storm chances Tuesday through Thursday, some
of which could be strong to severe. Additionally, weak flow will
lead to slow-moving storms which could generate localized
flooding. Given the overall lack of strong focused forcing,
placement, intensity and overall timing remain uncertain at this
time. More details to come through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with minimal
aviation concerns. Winds will oscillate between SW and SE while
remaining below 10 kts. Mid/high cloud cover will occasionally
stream overhead from upstream convection in West Texas, but none
of this thunderstorm activity will advance eastward into the
vicinity of D10 through the valid TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 92 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 75 90 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 72 90 74 91 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 76 91 76 93 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 75 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 77 93 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 74 92 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 73 92 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 91 72 93 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
