Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
058
FXUS64 KFWD 031034
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley
through 1 PM Thursday.
- Localized flash flooding will be possible south of I-20 and east
of I-35 through Thursday night.
- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across much of the
Big Country into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The remnants of Edouard will continue to linger across portions of
North and Central Texas today and tomorrow. While there is some
uncertainty with the exact track of the circulation center, the
general consensus amongst short term guidance is to slowly bring
the low westward to the I-35 corridor between Hillsboro and DFW by
tonight. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be
possible in the immediate vicinity of the low center, and
extending towards the southeast. West and north of the low center,
only very isolated (10-20% chance) diurnally driven rain showers
will be possible. As such, the vast majority of those north of
I-20 or west of I-35 will remain dry through tonight.
Afternoon highs will again vary greatly across our area. In the
Brazos Valley, high humidity, cloud cover, and periodic bouts of
rain will keep highs in the upper-80s. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for Leon, Freestone, Anderson, and Henderson counties
through 1 PM this afternoon. While most will receive 1-3 inches of
rain in this watch area, localized amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible. As such, the localized flash flooding potential will
continue in the Brazos Valley today. Further northwest into the
Big Country, fire weather concerns will continue to be elevated.
High temperatures ranging 100-105 will allow afternoon RH to again
drop into the 25-35% range. Persistent southeasterly winds and the
arrival of Edouard`s tropical airmass will also increase low-level
humidity and afternoon heat indices beginning today. This
afternoon, there will be a region along and just west of the I-35
corridor where highs in the mid and upper-90s along with surface
dew points in the upper-60s and lower-70s will result in feels
like temperatures of 100-104 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
...Friday...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again across
much of Central Texas (20-40% chance) during the afternoon and
evening hours on Friday as the remnants of Edouard continue to
weaken and drift westward towards the Hill Country. While the
greatest rain potential will be south of I-20, and along and west
of the I-35 corridor, a stray shower or thunderstorm will be
possible (10-20% chance) across the rest of North Texas and the
Brazos Valley.
With cloud cover and precipitation coverage less on Friday than
the days preceding in vicinity of the remnant low, temperatures
will likely warm into the 90s across the entire region. Surface
dew points will also continue their slow climb compared to earlier
this week resulting in heat indices just shy of Heat Advisory
criteria Friday afternoon (feels like temperatures 100-104 across
much of North and Central Texas). A few locations in the Big
Country may see triple digit heat again on Friday due to stronger
boundary layer mixing on the fringes of the incoming tropical
airmass.
...Saturday through Wednesday...
A more stagnant late summer pattern will settle in across North
and Central Texas by this weekend and should continue into next
week. Each day during this time period, above normal temperatures
are expected with highs in the upper-90s and lower-100s with the
hotter temperatures most likely across portions of North Texas.
Most will remain dry, but a weakness in heights associated with a
subtle tropical wave across the Gulf Coast will result in the
daily potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-30%
chance) for portions of the Brazos Valley and East-Central Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
The edge of an MVFR deck of stratus continues to bisect D10
bringing periodic MVFR cigs (BKN025) to KDAL and KDFW. As such
will maintain TEMPO MVFR 12Z-16Z with the next TAF issuance at
these sites. There is much more uncertainty with rain potential as
showers east of D10 have struggled to move northwestward. Elected
to remove VCSH with 12Z TAFs as most short term guidance
dissipates SHRA/RA in the vicinity of D10 by then. SCT SHRA and
isolated TSRA is possible in Central TX between 18Z and 03Z.
Highlighted most likely time to see TSRA potentially at KACT with
a PROB30 group, but there will be a 10-20% chance for TSRA at KACT
the same time VCSH is valid.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 75 95 76 / 30 30 20 0
Waco 95 74 95 73 / 50 50 40 0
Paris 93 72 97 73 / 20 0 10 0
Denton 97 73 97 73 / 20 20 10 0
McKinney 92 71 95 72 / 40 20 10 0
Dallas 93 75 96 76 / 40 30 10 0
Terrell 91 72 95 72 / 80 20 10 0
Corsicana 88 72 92 73 / 70 40 20 0
Temple 98 73 95 72 / 50 40 40 0
Mineral Wells 101 72 99 70 / 10 20 20 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ135-147-148-162.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
