Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
718
FXUS64 KFWD 130719
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
219 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front will arrive on Sunday, bringing gusty north
winds and unseasonably cold weather to start next week.
- Fire weather concerns may increase on Sunday due to low
humidity and gusty winds.
- A quick warm-up will take place by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
A quiet but steadily warming pattern will take hold through the
short term as surface high pressure shifts east and lee troughing
deepens across the High Plains. This will maintain southerly
return flow through this afternoon while mid-level ridging builds
overhead, favoring broad subsidence and a dry column. Full insolation
under mostly clear skies will support strong boundary layer
warming this afternoon. Forecast highs were nudged a few degrees
above the NBM across parts of the west and southwest where deeper
mixing and more aggressive dewpoint mix-out should allow
temperatures to outperform NBM guidance. Farther east, low-level
moisture recovery (though marginal) may temper heating just enough
to keep temperatures in the mid 70s this afternoon. Continued
southerly flow Friday night should prevent as strong a temperature
drop as we`ve seen the last few nights, with lows in the upper
40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Warm advection will continue Saturday beneath a strengthening
ridge aloft, with the warmest temperatures west of Highway 281
where deeper mixing and a drier boundary layer should allow highs
to climb the most efficiently. The pressure gradient will tighten
through the weekend as lee cyclogenesis strengthens across the
Central Plains, leading to breezier south winds by Saturday
evening, especially as a nocturnal low-level jet develops. Even
with that stronger return flow, the quality and depth of moisture
recovery remain the key thermodynamic questions heading into
Sunday, with the richer moisture axis still most likely to remain
displaced to the east and southeast.
Sunday continues to be the most active weather period in the
forecast. A highly amplified pattern will be in place with a deep
eastern CONUS trough and stout western U.S. ridge supporting a
rapidly deepening surface low lifting toward the Great Lakes. In
response, a strong cold front will surge south through the Plains
and across North and Central Texas. The exact timing of this FROPA
is the most important mesoscale detail in the forecast, as it
will determine not only Sunday temperatures, but also the timing
and magnitude of the post-frontal winds and the narrow window for
convection. For much of the CWA, the diurnal curve will be skewed
towards the morning with temperatures rising efficiently ahead of
the boundary early before falling sharply in its wake.
This still looks like a strongly forced but only modestly unstable
setup locally. Frontal ascent and kinematic support will be more
than sufficient, but the warm sector may be hampered by limited
moisture return, a warm layer aloft, and a short residence time
for richer boundary layer moisture ahead of the front. This
suggests a more conditional severe weather setup, with confidence
in widespread convection remaining lower than confidence in strong
winds and a sharp temperature drop. Most of the region is most
likely to experience primarily a frontal wind shift with strong
cold advection and more than likely no rainfall. East Texas may
have the best chance to briefly overlap stronger frontal forcing
with modest moisture. If moisture recovery is a little more
efficient Sunday morning, especially across the eastern third of
the CWA, a narrow band of convection could accompany the front
with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Outside of convection,
non-thunderstorm winds will likely be the dominant concern, and a
Wind Advisory may ultimately be needed as strong cold advection,
pressure rises, and deep post-frontal mixing support sustained
north winds near advisory criteria with higher gusts. Fire weather
concerns may also re-emerge quickly behind the front if rainfall
remains sparse and RH falls father than currently forecast.
The cold shot behind the front will be sharp but brief. Sunday
night into Monday morning will feature a much colder and drier
airmass with lows in the 30s areawide and wind chills of greater
concern by daybreak. It will feel like it is in the teens and 20s
so dress appropriately before heading out. Monday will remain
cool and breezy before surface high pressure settles overhead
Monday night into early Tuesday, setting up another cool start and
at least some light freeze potential across several of our Red
River counties as well as other favored rural locations. By
Tuesday afternoon, attention shifts back to fire weather concerns
as the post-frontal airmass dries and winds begin turning back to
the south. Even with the cooler antecedent air, receptive fuels,
low humidity, and persistent wind may support elevated fire
weather conditions west of I-35.
Thereafter, the pattern becomes more amplified again as heights
rise and the western ridge expands eastward. Once the surface high
shifts east, return flow will redevelop and temperatures should
rebound quickly to above normal by midweek with dry weather
continuing through late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
VFR will prevail through the period at all TAF sites. A modest
southerly wind will persist overnight, then strengthen by late
morning into the afternoon as the surface pressure gradient
tightens. Sustained south winds near 10 to 15 knots can be
expected by midday, with occasional higher gusts possible during
the peak mixing hours. Sky cover will remain minimal, with only a
few high clouds at most across the Metroplex terminals this
afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 53 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 78 52 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 74 49 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 76 49 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 75 51 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 78 54 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 51 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 53 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 79 51 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 82 49 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
