Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
912
FXUS64 KFWD 181127
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast west of I-35
today, with southwest winds of 10-20 mph and relative humidity
values as low as 15%.
- Rain chances of 20-50% return to the region on Wednesday along
with more mild temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1238 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
After a cloudy and chilly Saturday, a return to southwesterly
flow will allow temperatures to rebound today beneath sunny skies.
Despite the cold start to this morning with temperatures in the
teens and 20s, the very dry air will in place will warm up quickly
with daytime heating and ample insolation, while a shift to
west/southwest winds results in further compressional warming.
This will once again elevate the fire weather threat, mainly west
of I-35 this afternoon, where breezy winds of 10-20 mph will
coincide with RH values as low as 15%. Highs will be able to reach
the upper 50s and 60s area-wide.
The return to southerly surface flow will be short-lived, as
another weak frontal zone sags southward into North Texas this
evening. This boundary won`t have a drastic effect on sensible
weather with its passage other than a light north wind shift, but
will will serve to reinforce the cool/dry air already in place.
Low dewpoints in the teens and 20s will continue to support a
large diurnal temperature curve with tonight`s lows falling below
freezing across most of the area once again, although urban areas
may hold in the mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1238 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Longwave troughing will remain anchored across the CONUS through
most of the extended forecast period with occasional shortwave
disturbances pivoting through the base of of this trough. This
regime will allow for frequent frontal intrusions to continue
through the upcoming workweek and into next weekend, along with a
couple of opportunities for rainfall. It will take until Tuesday
night and Wednesday before significant moisture return can take
place locally, as frontal passages in the preceding days have
thoroughly scoured low-level moisture well into the Gulf. A more
favorable southerly fetch will materialize ahead of a progressive
disturbance in the subtropical jet heading into Wednesday morning,
which will draw a swath of low-level moisture northward. This
will result in widespread low stratus along with scattered rain
showers through much of the daytime. Precipitation coverage should
be greatest across our east/southeast zones, while our
west/northwestern counties may miss out on rainfall entirely. This
will be a rather brief opportunity for rain though, with this
system`s cold front and drier air already arriving on Wednesday
evening. Another abrupt warmup is forecast by Friday as stronger
southerly flow resumes, before yet another cold frontal passage
and some low rain chances arrive next weekend. Temperatures will
largely be near normal through the extended forecast period with
highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s, but Friday will be
the exception as temperatures are likely to be 10-20 degrees
above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Winds have become light and variable as of 11z, and will gradually
take on a light southwesterly direction in the next couple of
hours. Speeds will increase to 10-15 kts by midday with a few
higher daytime gusts. A weak cold front will drift into the area
this evening resulting in a light northeast wind shift after 02z
for Metroplex airports and closer to 10z for Waco. VFR/SKC will
prevail through the entire period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 33 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 61 31 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 52 29 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 61 27 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 58 29 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 61 34 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 58 29 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 60 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 61 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 64 29 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
