Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
506
FXUS64 KFWD 261050
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot, dry and humid conditions will persist into early next
week.
- Windy conditions are expected this weekend into Monday, with
gusts between 30-35 mph likely each day. An isolated gust up to
40 mph is not out of the question.
- Afternoon heat index values could reach or exceed 105 degrees at
times this weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
A few remnant showers or perhaps an isolated storm may brush
parts of North Texas early this morning as a weak disturbance
rounds the northern periphery of the ridge. The best, albeit still
low, rain chances will remain near the Red River through the pre-
dawn hours where any decaying activity or residual outflow can
briefly maintain enough low-level convergence for showers to
survive. Farther south toward the I-20 corridor, increasing
subsidence will quickly win out, keeping most locations dry
through the period. Any morning cloud cover should thin through
the day.
By this afternoon, the forecast will again settle into the hot,
humid, and breezy pattern that is expected to continue through the
weekend. Lee cyclogenesis to our northwest will tighten the
surface pressure gradient across the Southern Plains, maintaining
steady southerly flow across North and Central Texas. This will
keep Gulf moisture in place and limit radiational cooling
overnight, with mild and muggy conditions persisting into Saturday
morning. While wind speeds will not be particularly impactful
tonight, the continued southerly flow will help set the stage for
a warmer, breezier, and more humid weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
The dominant feature through the extended period will be a
strengthening mid/upper-level ridge extending from northern Mexico
into the Southern Plains, then shifting east toward the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley later this weekend into early
next week. For North and Central Texas, this will result in a
largely rain-free forecast with increasing subsidence, rising
heights, and a warming column keeping convection suppressed
through the period. While a stray shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out near the Red River if a weak ridge-periphery
disturbance or decaying upstream outflow can survive far enough
south, the overall signal is too weak and too displaced from the
area to warrant any meaningful rain chances at this time.
Otherwise, the western CONUS trough early next week will have more
of an indirect influence on North and Central Texas, reinforcing
lee troughing and southerly low-level flow while the more
organized storm activity remains west and north of the forecast
area.
The more impactful part of the forecast will be the combination of
heat, humidity, and persistent wind. A tightened pressure gradient
will support breezy to occasionally windy southerly winds Saturday
through Monday, with the strongest gusts generally during the
afternoon and early evening. While the wind may provide some
perceived relief from the heat at times, it will also keep the
boundary layer mixed, maintain Gulf moisture, and limit overnight
cooling. This will result in increasingly uncomfortable heat index
values, with portions of the area approaching or exceeding 105
degrees at times this weekend into early next week. Humidity
should temper the overall fire weather threat, but the combination
of hot temperatures, gusty winds, and lower afternoon RH may still
support elevated fire concerns at times west of I-35/I-35W.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
A shallow deck of MVFR stratus continues to lift north out of
Central Texas early this morning, with the better low cloud
potential remaining south of the D10 terminals. While a brief
period of MVFR ceilings at one or more Metroplex airports cannot
be ruled out through mid-morning, the probabilities remain low
enough (generally less than 30% between 13-15Z) to preclude any
mention in the TAFs at this time. KACT remains more likely to
continue to see temporary MVFR cigs through daybreak before mixing
lifts/scatters the deck later this morning. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail through the period with south winds increasing by late
morning, with sustained speeds around 15-18 kts and gusts to near
28 kts continuing through the afternoon. Gusts will diminish this
evening, but south winds will remain elevated overnight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 94 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 91 77 93 77 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 95 78 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 93 78 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 96 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 95 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
