Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
809
FXUS64 KFWD 161827
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1227 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions will increase the potential for fire
starts across western North and Central Texas Tuesday through
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Upper-level ridging will lead to a fairly tranquil weather day
across North and Central Texas. Highs this afternoon will climb
into the 70s to around 80 degrees, which is about 10 to 20 degrees
above normal for this time of the year. Winds will be out out of
the south between 10-15 mph.
Tonight will continue to be quiet on the weather front with
overnight temperatures in the 50s. Although clear skies are
expected to start the night, southerly flow across the Southern
Plains will help draw clouds out of the south by early Tuesday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
The above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of
the week with widespread 80s across North and Central Texas. The
warm weather, in tandem with increasing wind speeds and low
relative humidity, will yield several days of elevated fire
weather conditions.
On Tuesday, a shortwave will move northeast from New Mexico to
the Texas Panhandle. Ahead of the shortwave, breezy southwesterly
winds will develop throughout North Texas with 20 mph winds
gusting to around 30 mph. A dryline is expected to develop and
remain just west of our region, however, minimum relative humidity
values will still manage to dip to around 30 percent west of
US-281.
For Wednesday and Thursday, wind speeds will be slightly lower,
however, much drier air will arrive from the west. Minimum
relative humidity both Wednesday and Thursday will fall into the
teens and 20% range. This will lead to further drying of
vegetation that could burn if a source of significant heat is
introduced.
A cold front is slated to arrive on Friday, bringing a diminishing
threat for fire starts. This front should lead to temperatures
mostly in the 60s through the weekend with low rain chances east
of I-35.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Benign weather conditions are expected across North and Central
Texas with VFR skies continuing through the rest of this TAF
period. Southerly winds will persist between 10-15 kts through
tonight before winds pick up late tomorrow morning. Gusts up to 30
kts cannot be ruled out closer to 18z Tuesday across the region.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 54 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 72 53 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 69 51 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 73 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 71 52 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 73 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 71 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 74 54 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 74 51 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 78 52 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
