Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
947
FXUS64 KFWD 181740
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather concerns will continue into this weekend,
particularly along and west of the I-35 corridor.
- Slightly cooler weather with low (20-30%) rain chances return
from Sunday into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
A mid-level ridge currently centered over the ArkLaTex will stay
overtop North and Central TX through Saturday night. Large-scale
subsidence from this feature should warm up and dry out the mid-
levels of the atmosphere, and 850-300mb mean flow around the ridge
will slowly advect drier air (1-1.25 inch PW values) from Louisiana
into East TX today. Deep boundary-layer mixing under sunny skies has
allowed fair-weather cumulus to develop today and will do so again
tomorrow afternoon; however, the warm and dry profile above the
boundary layer will preclude mentionable rain chances through
Saturday night.
Near-record temperatures will continue today and Saturday as a
result of this pattern, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 and
lows in the 70s. Though there is a high (70-90%) likelihood that a
few North TX locales will see triple-digit temps this weekend, the
climatological window for this kind of heat is rapidly closing. At
DFW, only nine years in the historical record going back to 1898
have recorded 100-degree temps later than September 20, which is
this Sunday.
Fire weather concerns remain elevated Friday and Saturday as minimum
RH values are expected to drop to 25-30% and fuels remain very dry.
Tomorrow, a shortwave coming over the southern Rockies in advance of
a larger pattern change should induce the development of a weak
surface low in northeast NM. This low is expected to move into
western Oklahoma by Saturday night. The tightening pressure gradient
should support slightly breezier conditions Saturday afternoon and
evening, particularly in western North TX, adding to Saturday`s fire
threat.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
The dome of high pressure that has continued to generate well
above normal temperatures across North and Central Texas will
begin to break down on Saturday as a pair of shortwaves move from
west to east across the Central Plains. These shortwaves will be
the beginning of a slightly more active weather pattern that will
mostly impact areas north and northwest of our region. However,
the aforementioned shortwaves will push a cold front south into
Oklahoma, generating showers and storms along its leading edge.
Although the true front may remain north of our region, outflow
driven showers and storms may still push southward into western
portions of North Texas Sunday evening and overnight. Moderate
deep-layer shear, coupled with 1000-1500 J/kg of instability may
promote a few strong storms if a loosely organized cluster is able
to migrate south.
The first half of next week will remain somewhat unsettled across
the region as the frontal boundary gradually progresses southward
and stalls atop our region. With increased surface convergence
atop continued above normal temperatures, expect afternoon showers
and storms to develop each day. Temperatures, even behind the
front, will remain in the 90s given a lack of cold air across much
of the CONUS.
Precipitation amounts are unlikely to be significant enough to put
a dent in our drought, keeping vegetation primed to additional
fire starts. The threat for grass fires will persist through next
week, especially in areas that miss out on the rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the
period. Expect generally southerly flow at 5-10 KT, with wind
direction backing SSE this evening and veering SSW tomorrow morning
in the typical diurnal fashion.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 20
Waco 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 72 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 20
McKinney 74 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 72 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 72 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 72 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Fenske
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
