Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
737
FXUS64 KFWD 290013
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
713 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures around 100 with little to no rain are expected
through at least the middle of next week.
- The fire threat will remain elevated into next week due to hot
temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
The upper ridge currently centered over the Southwest U.S. will
continue expanding east toward the Southern Plains through
Saturday, with strengthening subsidence and warming through the
low and mid levels increasingly suppressing convective
development. There may still be just enough instability and weak
convergence to support an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
the Hill Country and into a few of our Central Texas counties this
afternoon, though most of our area is likely to remain rain-free.
Surface convergence is weak and no well-defined residual
boundaries remain, but several CAMs have maintained a modest
signal for afternoon development while low to mid 70s dewpoints
persist across Central Texas. Coverage should remain quite
limited, and any activity that develops will dissipate quickly
this evening. While severe weather is not expected, the deeply
mixed boundary layer may support brief gusty winds with any
storms.
Otherwise, hot and mostly clear conditions will prevail through
Saturday as the boundary layer becomes increasingly well mixed
beneath the strengthening ridge. Afternoon dewpoints have
continued to mix lower than blended guidance, and a similar trend
should allow temperatures to overachieve somewhat while keeping
heat index values from becoming substantially higher than the
ambient temperature. Highs will reach the triple digits across
much of North Texas this afternoon and Saturday, with upper 90s
more common across Central Texas. Despite the heat, no heat
headlines are planned at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
The subtropical ridge will remain the dominant influence through
much of next week as it migrates east across the Southern Plains
and eventually toward the Mississippi Valley. Persistent
subsidence, a deeply mixed boundary layer, and limited large-scale
ascent will maintain a hot and dry forecast across North and
Central Texas. Although the eastward displacement of the ridge
will eventually place Central Texas within weak easterly flow
aloft, any Gulf or sea-breeze convection should remain south and
southeast of the forecast area for now. No meaningful pattern
change or widespread rain opportunity is apparent through the end
of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
VFR and south flow should prevail through the valid TAF period at
all TAF sites. The winds will undergo diurnal shifts--ESE this
evening, SSW tomorrow morning, then SE tomorrow afternoon--but
these shifts were not operationally significant enough to include
in the TAFs.
There is a ~10% chance of isolated showers tomorrow afternoon,
mainly along and east of I-35. If showers develop, the clouds
should only be a few thousand feet thick which is not deep enough
to produce much more than a few sprinkles and slightly gusty
winds at the surface.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 99 77 99 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 72 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 74 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 74 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 75 99 75 99 / 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 102 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Bonnette
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
