Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
288
FXUS64 KFWD 211903 AAA
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
203 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain along with isolated thunderstorms are ongoing
across North and Central Texas. Severe weather is not expected.
- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve
late this week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Cool and wet conditions continue across North and Central Texas as
a disturbance moves overhead. This disturbance, clearly seen on
satellite, is proving strong forcing for ascent atop an already
moist environment. With precipitable water values in the 1.4" -
1.6" range, today`s atmosphere is above the 90th percentile in
regards to the total amount of available moisture.
As the shortwave progresses eastward through the rest of the
afternoon, expect the widespread precipitation area to shift east
as well. With no trailing cold front moving through the region,
we`ll keep moisture around through the night with a few lingering
showers expected. Rain chances overnight will be the highest south
of I-30 and east of I-35 given the higher moisture content.
There will be a potential for patchy fog west of I-35 and south
of I-20 by Wednesday morning. Latest guidance suggest some of the
fog may be dense, however, coverage will be fairly patchy. We`ll
continue to monitor this piece of the forecast through the rest of
the day and tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
As we approach the weekend, we`ll be entering a more active
weather period with multiple days of thunderstorms, some of which
could be severe.
In the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, we`ll transition
from weak ridging (ongoing) to zonal flow (Friday & Saturday) and
finally to more of a troughing pattern. This transition will take
shape while we remain in a moist and unstable atmosphere, leading
to near daily storm chances for parts of the region.
Thursday will feature residual weak ridging as the shortwave
leading to the precipitation today and tomorrow moves away. In the
lower-levels, lee cyclogenesis over western Kansas will lead to a
northward transport of Gulf moisture over much of North and
Central Texas. This same feature will sharpen a dryline just to
our west, however, thunderstorm development remains unlikely on
Thursday. A layer of warm air aloft should inhibit strong updraft
development.
As zonal flow develops Friday and Saturday, shortwaves will move
in from the west. A dryline will continue to develop each
afternoon across our western counties, providing localized forcing
for ascent. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient instability and
effective shear will be in place for the development of strong to
severe storms ahead of the dryline. Mesoscale features will
likely impact the location of the severe weather threat, however,
Friday`s potential storms are currently expected to be largely
north and east of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.
The trough to our west will continue to amplify on Sunday, with
additional impulses making their way into our region. All of North
and Central Texas will be under a threat for severe weather given
continued high instability, strong deep layer shear and steep mid-
level lapse rates. There are indications that a cold front may try
to slide south into our region Monday or Tuesday, shifting our
threat for severe weather to the east. These details do contain
some uncertainty, therefore, expect further refinements to the
forecast in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
As the weather system responsible for today`s precipitation moves
overhead, the area of widespread precipitation will continue to
shift to the east. Ongoing back building of precipitation will
delay the drying onset until closer to 21z, at which point most of
the precipitation will have moved east. A few lingering showers
may impact the vicinity of the TAF sites through the night,
however, direct impacts appear unlikely.
Ceilings will continue to be a concern through tonight as moisture
continues to stream in from the south. A deck of low clouds will
likely persist between 600-900 feet AGL through tomorrow morning
before improvements to MVFR commence. Winds through the entire
forecast cycle will remain out of the southeast around 10 kts.
A return to VFR is expected tomorrow afternoon as dry air moves in
from the southwest. This improvement will likely be short-lived as
another round of low ceilings arrives tomorrow night into early
Thursday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 79 66 82 / 30 20 10 10
Waco 60 78 66 81 / 30 20 10 10
Paris 55 75 63 80 / 30 30 10 10
Denton 56 78 64 82 / 20 10 10 10
McKinney 57 77 65 80 / 30 20 10 10
Dallas 59 78 67 82 / 30 20 10 10
Terrell 57 78 65 82 / 30 20 10 10
Corsicana 60 81 67 84 / 30 30 10 10
Temple 60 81 66 83 / 30 20 10 10
Mineral Wells 57 80 64 84 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
