Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
321
FXUS64 KFWD 160644
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
144 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
Texas this afternoon.
- An elevated fire threat will exist primarily west of I-35
today.
- Slightly cooler weather and low rain chances return late Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
IR satellite imagery presents with clear skies as North Texas
finds itself under the influence of an impressive subtropical
ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS. A weak mid-level
disturbance rounding the western periphery of the ridge --evident
on water vapor imagery-- tried to initiate a few showers across
the Brazos Valley last night, though updrafts ultimately failed as
they encountered and likely entrained the subsidently dried
airmass above 800mb. Although the model suite depicts some
associated subtle DCVA across the western portions of our area
through the morning, synoptic ascent won`t be enough to overcome
the overall thermodynamic environment. While a few strands of high
clouds may result, they will do little to temper diurnal heating.
In combination with better PBL moisture along and east of I-35,
the Heat Advisory was extended for another day where heat indices
will exceed 105F.
There has been a consistent light QPF signal within and near the
Piney Woods for this afternoon where a narrow axis of ~2.00" PWATs
will reside. There, isolated instances of convective temperature
breaching and pulse thundershowers will be possible around peak
heating.
The overall fire weather environment will continue to be
heightened through the work week as low humidity and above average
temperatures persist amongst increasingly drought-laden fuels.
That being said, the continued westward expansion of the ridge
will result in a greater parallel mid-level flow component to the
Southern Rockies, reducing the PGF and resultant surface winds
compared to what has been observed over the past few days.
The center of the subtropical ridge will translate back to the west
on Thursday and Friday, maintaining the monotonous hot and dry
conditions experienced as of late. A few showers and thunderstorms
may try to work into the Brazos Valley tomorrow afternoon; a bulk
of this activity is expected to remain closer to the coast. A
weakening trend of the heights aloft will ensue on Friday as an
eastward-translating cutoff low over the northwestern CONUS and
easterly upper trough over Florida exert their respective
influences.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Heat continues into this weekend with highs running around 10
degrees above normal and little chance for rainfall as stubborn
ridging remains in place across the Arklatex. Troughing will amplify
a bit during this time over the Intermountain West while an upper
trough also moves westward across the northern Gulf. This will
eventually weaken the ridging overall across the region and allow a
cold front to slide south through the Plains as a shortwave ejects
out of the Central Rockies on Sunday. While it`s still a little
uncertain how far south the front will make it, consensus is that it
will be close enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms to
possibly impact the region late Sunday night into early Monday.
While we`re not expecting any surge of cooler air anytime soon,
additional cloud cover and some rain around will knock several
degrees off of high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. So instead
of highs near 100, we`ll likely see readings in the 93-95 degree
range early next week. Unfortunately the pattern just does not look
conducive to any intrusions of cooler air through next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites. Southerly winds ~10
kts will back to SSE during the day tomorrow. A few ragged low
clouds and resultant brief MVFR ceilings may impact the ACT
terminal through this morning. Satellite trends will be monitored.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 80 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 99 77 101 76 / 0 0 10 0
Paris 98 76 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 100 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 100 80 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 99 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 99 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 99 76 99 74 / 0 0 10 0
Mineral Wells 101 74 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
