Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

000
FXUS64 KFWD 191049
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes have been made compared to the previous
forecast.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer compared to
yesterday across the region. Much of this morning will be fairly
quiet, with breezy winds developing by the afternoon. Highs will
range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Tonight/

A quiet day expected today & tonight across North and Central
Texas. Most of the area will experience highs a few degrees above
normal.

A mid-level ridge will be departing the region early today in
response to a strong shortwave migrating eastward across the
Rockies. The effects of this shortwave will largely be limited to
the development of gusty south/southwesterly winds this afternoon.
Gusts up to around 25 mph can be expected as momentum from the
higher winds aloft transfers towards the surface. Highs today will
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

High clouds will continue through the day as Pacific moisture
makes its way into the region. The high clouds will cause
overnight low temperatures to remain well above normal (5-13
degrees F), generally in the lower 60s throughout much of the
region.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 258 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021/
/Wednesday though Monday/

Warm and generally rain-free weather is anticipated from the
middle of the week through early next week with temperatures
generally above seasonal normals.

Warm and moist air will advect across the region Wednesday ahead
of a weak cold front. High temperatures Wednesday will warm into
the lower and middle 80s. The front will likely enter into the
northwest zones Wednesday afternoon, stalling across North Texas
Wednesday night and Thursday. Since moisture will be shallow and
large scale forcing for ascent will be weak to neutral, the chances
for measurable rainfall will be low. However, some locations
along the front may experience some sprinkles or brief light rain.
The front may cool temperatures slightly on Thursday, especially
north of the I-20 corridor where highs should stay in the middle
and upper 70s.

Moisture and large scale lift should both increase Thursday night
with the arrival of a weak shortwave. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as the shortwave lifts across
North Texas through Friday morning. However, moisture will still
be somewhat limited so we will keep PoPs on in the 20%-30% range.
Severe weather appears unlikely due to limited instability and
weak wind shear.

The shortwave will shift east of the region by Friday afternoon
once an upper ridge builds in from the west. Decreasing clouds
and increasing southerly winds will allow temperatures to warm
into the 80s Friday afternoon with mainly lower 60s Friday night.

The remainder of the weekend through early next week will be
warm, breezy and somewhat humid as low level warm/moist advection
increases ahead of a developing low pressure system in the west.
Highs Saturday through Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal normals, generally in the middle and upper 80s. Lows will
be mild with mainly lower and middle 60s.

The next rain chances will return around Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week with the arrival of another low pressure system and
cold front.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Concerns...Breezy southerly winds this afternoon, some low clouds
early tomorrow morning.

Plenty of high altitude Pacific moisture continues to stream in
from the southwest in response to a large system spiraling across
the Rockies. Drier air is now moving into the northwestern
portions of North Texas, and will likely continue its eastward
shift through the day. This will allow for skies to become mostly
clear by the afternoon.

The southerly winds are likely to become breezy this afternoon as
the elevated winds work their way closer to the ground. This will
likely cause gusts of up to 23 knots through around sunset. Winds
will subside after sunset as the lower levels decouple from the
stronger winds aloft.

Gulf of Mexico moisture is expected to gradually return tonight,
likely leading to some lower clouds by tomorrow morning.
Confidence in a deck of clouds is low at this time, but this will
have to be monitored through the day in the event that MVFR needs
to be added to the TAF.


Hernandez
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  64  84  62  81 /   0   0   5   5   5
Waco                79  62  83  63  83 /   0   5   5   5   5
Paris               77  58  82  60  78 /   0   5   5  10   5
Denton              80  61  84  56  80 /   0   0   5   5   5
McKinney            79  62  83  59  81 /   0   0   5   5   5
Dallas              81  65  84  64  82 /   0   5   5   5   5
Terrell             79  60  83  60  82 /   0   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           80  62  83  63  83 /   0   5   5   5   5
Temple              80  60  84  61  84 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       80  60  84  58  80 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion