Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
174
FXUS64 KFWD 052356
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
656 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms are expected to continue across our far western
counties overnight, with scattered thunderstorms expected Monday
afternoon and evening, mainly south and east of the Metroplex.
- Hot and dry conditions will persist next week with low storm
chances for the remainder of the work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Showers and thunderstorms have exited the Metroplex at this hour,
however severe thunderstorms are moving across Young and Stephens
Counties which are contain a threat for large hail and damaging
winds. These should continue to move south over the next few hours
across the far western portion of our area, with just a few
lingering showers elsewhere. A few outflow boundaries from
earlier convection are pushing through areas mainly south of I-20,
which may result in erratic and gusty winds, however mostly clear
and calmer conditions are expected overnight once these storms
exit the region.
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
An area of showers and thunderstorms has been moving southeastward
into North Texas over the past several hours. These storms are
expected to intensify as daytime heating takes hold during the mid
afternoon hours. In addition, more convection is expected to develop
along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle
to Deep East TX. The primary risk will be damaging wind gusts,
especially west of I-35 where temperature/dew point disparity will
be the greatest, but some large hail can`t be ruled out. Storms
that develop in the eastern half of the region are likely to
dissipate in the hours after sunset, but recent CAM guidance is
suggesting that the more organized storms out west will persist
into the early overnight hours.
Warm temperatures will continue to impact the region tomorrow, with
widespread heat indices of 100-105. The typical summertime pop-up
convection will begin as daytime heating sets in. However, there
may be some lingering outflow boundaries from tonight`s convection
that could act as a focus for development. The location and exact
timing will become more apparent as tonight`s storms progress.
Showers should quickly diminish soon after sunset and leave lows
to fall into the mid and upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Upper-level ridging will begin to build back northeastward from
the Desert Southwest, pushing rain chances out to our far eastern
zones on Tuesday and out of the region for much of the rest of
the week. There still may be some summertime pop-up convection but
nothing particularly widespread. Long-range models are depicting
a shortwave trough moving through the Midwest late Friday into
Saturday, which could push more organized rainfall into the
region over the weekend. This would be highly dependent on the
position and strength of the ridge by the end of the week, since a
greater eastern extent would work to keep the forcing at bay.
The dry conditions this week will make heat the front page story.
Expect temperatures to continue climbing to the mid to upper 90s
and adequately prepare for any outdoor activities to prevent
heat-related illness.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with showers
and thunderstorms now well to the west of the Metroplex and calm
conditions expected for the DFW terminals overnight into tomorrow.
Winds have gradually shifted back to SE around 10 knots in the
wake of an outflow boundary earlier, and are expected to persist
overnight. There is a low chance (30%) for a few late day
thunderstorms in the vicinity of KACT tomorrow afternoon, however
confidence is too low to include VCTS at this time. Otherwise,
expect a few scattered clouds around 25 kft and the typical
diurnal cumulus dissipating shortly after sunset.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation where severe thunderstorm warnings are issued
is appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 98 78 99 / 10 10 20 10
Waco 79 97 77 97 / 30 30 20 10
Paris 73 93 72 93 / 20 10 10 10
Denton 75 97 75 98 / 20 10 10 10
McKinney 76 96 75 97 / 10 10 20 10
Dallas 79 99 78 99 / 10 10 20 10
Terrell 75 97 74 96 / 10 20 30 10
Corsicana 78 98 77 98 / 30 30 20 10
Temple 78 97 77 97 / 30 30 20 10
Mineral Wells 73 97 73 98 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Crumbacher
LONG TERM....Crumbacher
AVIATION...Brauer
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
