Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
749
FXUS64 KFWD 201050
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record high temperatures expected today and through the
weekend with no rainfall expected.
- Well above normal temperatures and very low humidity will lead
to a continued threat for grass fires into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
An anomalously strong mid level ridge centered over the Desert
Southwest will have increasing influence on North Texas weather
through the weekend with temperatures expected to run 20 to 25
degrees above normal. Near record highs are expected today through
Sunday with no chance for rainfall and a continued threat for
grass fires.
The center of the ridge will remain parked over Arizona through
the weekend, but height rises will expand eastward each day
allowing an 850 mb thermal ridge to expand eastward as well.
850 mb temperatures serve as a good proxy for afternoon highs
across North and Central Texas when we`re well mixed which should
be the case over the next couple of days, however, low level winds
won`t be overly strong and flow above 850 mb turns more northerly
which does reduce the total downsloping warming component a bit.
This appears to be reflected in the latest short term guidance
which has shaved a few degrees off of high temperatures through
the weekend. It will still be hot, and there is likely to be a
gradient in highs from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees across
our western counties, particularly Saturday and Sunday. For now,
we`ve trended the forecast slightly cooler toward the consensus of
the short term guidance today through Sunday.
Sunday has the added complexity of a cold front approaching the
region during the afternoon. With the front nearing the Red River
during peak heating, we`ll likely see an area of strong
compressional heating develop just ahead of the front across our
northwest counties. This is captured pretty well in the short term
guidance where low level temperatures soar during the mid
afternoon hours. We`ll likely see several locations across our
northwest reach 100 degrees or higher before the front moves
through. Farther east and south, temperatures will likely stay in
the mid 90s. The front will continue to push south Sunday evening
with some cooler air in its wake.
The well above normal temperatures and very low afternoon humidity
will continue to support a threat for grass fires across the
region. RH values will drop to 10-20% each afternoon west of I-35
with winds 10-15 mph.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Cooler air will continue to spread south behind the front Sunday
night and Monday as the upper ridge to the west flattens out a
bit. Highs on Monday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Sunday with
readings in the low to mid 80s. The `cool down` will be short
lived as ridging expands again through the middle of next week.
We`ll see high temperatures climb back into the low to mid 90s
Wednesday and Thursday with a continued threat for grass fire
activity through the week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with south winds (variable
between 170-220 degrees this afternoon) 10 to 15 kt. No
significant aviation concerns are expected through the period.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 62 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 90 60 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 86 59 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 91 57 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 90 60 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 91 63 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 89 59 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 91 60 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 91 58 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 94 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
