Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
220
FXUS64 KFWD 081916
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
216 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered storms should continue through the
afternoon. There is a very low threat of small to marginally
severe hail.
- The severe threat increases this evening when a line of storms
moves across the Red River. The main threat will be damaging
wind gusts across eastern North Texas.
- The severe threat returns Sunday afternoon and evening. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
A pretty active pattern is setting up across North and Central Texas
over the next couple days, with a couple severe threats plaguing the
region. An early-morning round of showers and storms is exiting
northeast Texas now, with another round of showers and storms
developing over Western Central Texas. The storms in the area
this afternoon are being triggered by a mid-level minor shortwave
trough with the effective inflow layer based around 2 km. Above
this layer, there is sufficient instability for thunderstorm
development, but the shear profiles are relatively weak and not
overly favorable for severe weather. A slight backing in the
hodograph between 2-6 km may allow for left splitting or
anticyclonic updrafts to produce marginally severe hail, but this
would be a relatively infrequent occurrence. Anyway, the cluster
of storms should move ENE through the afternoon and dissipate or
move out of our area around sunset.
Our attention will then shift to the north where a cold front is
forecast to stall over Central Oklahoma. Thunderstorms are forecast
to initiate along the front between 3-4 pm well to our north in
Oklahoma. Strong forcing along the front and shear profiles that
favor cold pool mergers should allow the initial supercells to form
into a line of storms, or at least a couple "linearesque" clusters
of storms, with a strong outflow boundary. This boundary is forecast
to move across the Red River overnight around midnight and continue
moving ESE through the early-morning hours. The morning CAMs latched
onto a solution that blew a well-organized line of strong to severe
wind storms through the entire Metroplex. The latest CAM guidance
has backed off, showing just a few clusters of storms moving into
eastern North Texas. I`m more inclined to favor the latter. In
situations like this where the source of lift gets detached from
nocturnal storms sustained by their own outflow, you need strong
inflow (low-level flow) into the storms in order for them to
maintain their intensity. Tonight, the low-level flow will not be
the best...about 15-20 kts of S-SW flow. It`s not terrible, but not
the best for severe weather. It should be enough to sustain isolated
to scattered showers/storms through the night, but the flow will
become heavily veered after midnight and have to overcome strong
convective inhibition.
After the storms move east/dissipate Saturday morning, the
remnant outflow boundary will wash out and be replaced by a warm
and moist advective regime locally. Expect tomorrow to be several
degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
and heat index values a few degrees higher than that. These
values are pretty typical for this time of the year. Most of the
forecast area will be dry Saturday as any substantive forcing
remains displaced well to our north. Another round of strong to
severe storms is forecast to develop over Oklahoma (far western OK
tomorrow). Similar to tonight, the storms should merge into a
line of storms and make a run for our Red River counties in the
early- morning hours. The flow patterns at this time should keep
most of the storms outside of our forecast area, but there is
still a low (20%) chance a few storms brush along the Red River
late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
A low pressure system attached to a larger cold front should move
through all of North and Central Texas Sunday (Mother`s Day!)
into Monday. Very strong forcing with this system should allow for
widespread showers and storms to develop with just about everyone
in the forecast area forecast to receive at least some rain.
There are differences in the guidance regarding low pressure
placement and timing, but the guidance is in decent agreement of
the entire system moving through the region late this weekend. The
parameter space is favorable for large hail and damaging wind
gusts ahead of the front, and elevated hail behind the front as
well. Median rain amounts with Sunday`s system alone should
average between 0.5-1" for a vast swath of the forecast area with
a few spots receiving upwards of 2, maybe 3 inches. While flooding
is not our main message for Sunday, it is a concern, particularly
for flood-prone or low-lying areas. Finer details regarding the
frontal placement and timing will be consequential, so it will be
important to keep up with the forecast this weekend.
After this system departs the region early next week, pleasant
weather is forecast for a couple days. Stronger ridging aloft is
forecast to build into West Texas in the middle to late parts of
next week and bring temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026
A cluster of storms moving toward the D10 terminals early this
afternoon has necessitated a re-intrudiction of VCTS to the TAFs.
These storms are moving ENE at a pretty good clip, so they should
just move into and out of D10 within a couple hours. A clearing
trend is forecast after the storms move out, allowing VFR to
prevail late in the afternoon into the evening.
Our attention will then shift north to a cluster of storms that
is expected to develop in Oklahoma later today. A line of storms
should move across the Red River and encroach on D10 around
midnight. The morning guidance was much more aggressive with this
system than the recent guidance. Given the uncertainty, we only
introduced VCTS in the TAFs for this activity for now. Either way,
a northerly wind shift/outflow boundary is more likely than not at
this point. We`ll continue to assess this for future TAFs.
Lower ceilings are expected to build in a few hours after the
storms/outflow pass, and remain in-place for most of the morning.
The winds tomorrow will be a challenge, so the current TAFs
attempt to capture the bigger trends versus the smaller-scale
details.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening along and
north of US-380. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 87 69 85 / 30 0 10 80
Waco 66 85 68 88 / 20 10 0 50
Paris 61 83 64 78 / 40 10 20 90
Denton 63 86 68 83 / 30 0 10 80
McKinney 63 86 68 82 / 40 10 10 80
Dallas 66 87 69 85 / 30 0 10 80
Terrell 64 84 67 85 / 40 10 10 80
Corsicana 66 86 69 88 / 30 10 0 60
Temple 66 86 68 88 / 20 10 0 30
Mineral Wells 62 87 66 85 / 20 0 0 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Bonnette
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
