Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
568
FXUS64 KFWD 232332
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
532 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An elevated wildfire threat will materialize Tuesday across the
northwest due to gusty winds, above normal temperatures and low
humidity.
- The elevated fire threat will continue Wednesday and Thursday,
but lower wind speeds will limit the overall threat.
- Warm and rain-free conditions continue the rest of the week with
no significant rain chances through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
One more cooler day is taking shape to start off the work week, with
temperatures reaching the mid 50s along the Red River to low 60s
across Central TX and the Big Country this afternoon. Surface high
pressure along the Plains today will shift east as an amplified
upper level trough travels along the eastern seaboard, with winds
veering southeast this afternoon and returning to the south
tonight. Winds won`t be quite as light as they were the previous
night, but speeds of 5 to 10 mph overnight and mostly clear skies
will allow lows tonight to drop into the 30s, with all areas
remaining above freezing.
Lee cyclogenesis kicking off tonight will gradually strengthen the
low level flow across the Southern Plains with breezy S/SW winds
returning Tuesday morning. An expanding thermal ridge combined with
the SW winds of 30-40 kts mixing down towards the surface will
result in a warm and breezy day, particularly north and west of a
line from Comanche to Granbury to Bowie, where highs will reach the
upper 70s. Relative humidity in this area will drop down to 20-25%,
resulting in an elevated fire threat. Highs elsewhere will be in the
upper 60s to low 70s and while there will be a brief period of
minimum RH less than 30% tomorrow, the enhanced southerly flow will
actually start advecting in a bit of moisture into the region, so
any period of elevated fire conditions should be short lived
(outside of the northwest). Otherwise, winds during the day
tomorrow will be sustained around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35
mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
On Wednesday, low level WAA will increase as winds become more W/SW
in response to the center of the surface low shifting southward and
passing through North and Central Texas. The low will weaken as it
spreads farther into the area with winds decreasing in speed
significantly compared to Tuesday. Sustained speeds will be around
10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph, with the breeziest
conditions expected in the morning and early afternoon. Above normal
warmth in the lower levels and another day of solid mixing to near
850 mb will result in the warmest day of the work week. Highs
areawide will be ~15 to 20 degrees above normal (and still > 10
degrees away from record highs), reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Afternoon humidity will drop to the 20-30% range near/west of I-35
Wednesday, promoting an increased threat for initial attack
activity; however, the overall fire threat will be tempered somewhat
by the expected wind speeds.
A cold front will then approach North TX early Thursday morning,
sent southward in response to an upper level disturbance shifting
into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. The cold air behind it won`t be
significant by any means, but will bring highs down by about 5 to
10 degrees across North TX and western Central TX. Elsewhere, the
timing of the front being late morning/midday will mean its only
a few degrees cooler than Wednesday. Highs will be in the low 70s
along the Red River to low 80s in Temple-Killeen and the Brazos
Valley. With the front, winds will be a bit breezy once more with
north winds 10 to 20 mph and gusts to ~25 mph. RH on Thursday will
again drop to 20-30% near and west of I-35 with another day of an
elevated fire threat, again limited by the relatively lighter
winds.
Southerly winds become reestablished by Friday with higher
heights building in for the weekend. Saturday will be another warm
day with 80s returning and a 30-50% chance of breaking 90 degrees
west of U.S. 281. More considerable forecast uncertainty arrives
Sunday and through the first few days of March, with a potential
for another cold front/system to clip our area. Right now the Day
7 forecast only has 20% rain chances across the far NE with highs
still in the upper 70s/low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
VFR conditions will continue tonight through 06z Wednesday, as a
dry northwesterly upper level flow transitions to a fast zonal
flow by Tuesday afternoon. This will support the rapid development
of a strong lee-side surface trough and surface low over Western
Kansas and West Texas after 12z Tuesday. Apart from a few high
clouds Tuesday, skies will remain clear.
With a weakening surface ridge receding eastward from our area
this evening, winds within D10 and Waco will veer to the southeast
at speeds under 6 knots through much of the night. Southerly
winds will begin to increase steadily from 09z onward through
15-18z Tuesday. By 19z, most TAF sites should be experiencing
sustained winds of 16-22 knots, gusting in excess of 30 knots at
times through the afternoon hours. Gradual relaxation of the
gradient after 00z Wednesday will promote a decrease in the
windspeeds during the evening hours.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 40 73 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 37 72 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 33 67 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 35 73 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 37 71 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 40 73 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 35 71 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 38 74 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 35 74 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 36 76 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gordon
LONG TERM....Gordon
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
