Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
614
FXUS64 KFWD 132327
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the
area through Wednesday with primarily a threat for flash
flooding. A few strong storms may also produce gusty downburst
winds and small hail.
- Rain chances will diminish through midweek, with hot and dry
weather resuming late week into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Latest radar imagery shows only a few isolated showers and storms
remain across North and Central Texas after the widespread
activity earlier today has mostly stabilized the atmosphere. Have
made significant adjustments to precip chances overnight into
tomorrow based on latest trends and CAMs. Little activity is
anticipated until 09-10Z tonight when showers and storms redevelop
across Central Texas, then become more widespread through the
morning/afternoon but stay mainly south of I-20. Will keep Flood
Watch as inherited but main flood threat will stay to our south
and southwest across the SJT and EWX forecast areas.
Shamburger
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Weak dynamic ascent associated with a broad mid-level trough has
combined with anomalously rich moisture to create scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity over North and Central Texas. With this
anomalously rich moisture, characterized by PW values over 2 inches,
and weak flow keeping storm motion slow, flash flooding is the
primary concern through the next 24-36 hours. The main focus for
activity is a weak boundary sagging southward into Central Texas
this afternoon, with more isolated to widely scattered activity
to the north. A Flood Watch has been issued for areas where the
flooding threat is highest.
Activity will diminish overnight with loss of heating, though the
broad, weak forcing will keep at least a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor.
More widespread activity will pick up again Tuesday, still focused
primarily south of I-20, with more isolated coverage of 20-30% to
the north. Temperatures will remain below normal through this
period, thanks to widespread cloud cover and the presence of rain
cooled air. High temperatures are expected only to reach the mid to
upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
The broad, weak ascent and rich moisture sticks around through
Wednesday, keeping scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in
the forecast. However, the best lift associated with the easterly
wave will track southwest, leading to much more diurnally driven
pattern. By Thursday, ridging begins to build in, resulting in a
gradually diminishing threat of showers and thunderstorms through
the back half of the week. Temperatures begin to rise again during
this period as seasonably hot and dry conditions return. Highs
will be near to above normal through the extended, with readings
in the upper 90s to low 100s expected.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
VFR conditions are anticipated this evening into the early morning
hours as most SHRA/TSRA activity has diminished. Cannot rule out
an isolated shower in D10 however and will keep VCSH mention
through 02Z. Overnight, MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are anticipated at all
airports in the 09Z-15Z timeframe per most guidance. In addition,
SHRA/TSRA are expected to redevelop overnight south of KACT and
spread northward but remain mostly south of Metroplex airports,
so will only include a PROB30 mention of SHRA for now in D10.
Light easterly/southeasterly winds will continue through the TAF
period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 73 89 73 / 70 20 40 20
Waco 88 72 86 71 / 80 60 80 40
Paris 84 71 89 70 / 50 10 30 10
Denton 90 71 90 70 / 70 20 40 20
McKinney 86 72 89 71 / 60 20 40 20
Dallas 90 74 90 74 / 80 20 40 20
Terrell 84 71 88 70 / 90 20 40 20
Corsicana 82 72 87 72 / 100 50 60 30
Temple 88 71 85 70 / 80 70 90 50
Mineral Wells 90 71 87 69 / 50 20 40 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ142-143-156>160-174-
175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bealo
LONG TERM....Bealo
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
