Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
441
FXUS64 KFWD 231038
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
438 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- It will be cold tonight with lows near or below freezing.
- Warmer and rain-free conditions are forecast through most of
the upcoming week.
- An elevated wildfire threat will materialize Tuesday and
Thursday due to the combination of above normal temperatures,
low humidity, and breezy winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Weak north winds at around 5 mph, dry air and clear skies will
result in another night of cold temperature across North and
Central Texas. Temperatures across the region will dip near or
below freezing.
Tomorrow, the surface ridge axis will shift into the area keeping north
winds weak (under 10 mph) as they veer and become easterly, then
southerly throughout the day. This will be the last cold day for
a while as the post-frontal airmass from this weekend finally
shifts to our east. Expect highs to range from the mid-50s in
Northeast Texas to the mid-60s in Central Texas.
Monday night, despite the return to southerly flow, a lax surface
pressure gradient will keep winds on the calmer side (under 10
mph). This in combination with dewpoints in the 20s and clear
skies will help overnight lows once again drop down into the 30s.
Unlike tonight, most across North and Central Texas should remain
above freezing.
On Tuesday, a shortwave trough embedded in northwesterly flow
aloft will eject into the Upper Midwest from southern Canada. In
the 850-700 hPa layer, the height gradient over much of the Great
Plains and Midwest will tighten as lower heights associated with
this system encroach on a ridge centered over the Gulf and Deep
South. This will result in strong southwesterly flow of 30-45
knots in this layer across North and Central Texas. Forecast
soundings show a well mixed boundary layer beneath this jet owing
to diurnally driven mixing and dry air at the surface. As such,
expect a windy and warm day across the area with winds out of the
southwest at 20-30 mph and afternoon highs climbing into the 70s.
A few low 80s will be possible in the Big Country. Fire weather
concerns will be elevated this day as well, with afternoon RH
values dropping into the 20-35% range. Fortunately, parcel
trajectories in the boundary layer will be sourced off the Gulf,
so low-level moisture will steadily increase throughout the
afternoon and evening hours with surface dew points rising from
the 20s to the 40s. This will preclude a more substantial fire
weather threat on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
Tuesday night will be substantially warmer than the nights prior
with lows only dropping into the 50s. Despite the clear skies,
strong flow at 850 hPa and an isallobaric response in the surface
wind field to a developing surface low in Northwest Texas will
work against the nocturnal decoupling of the boundary layer. This
will keep winds out of the south/southwest at 10-20 mph overnight,
mitigating nighttime radiative cooling. Furthermore, dewpoints in
the 50s will continue to advect northward into areas along and
east of the I-35 corridor which will help keep overnight lows
above normal as well.
Wednesday, the surface low that will develop in Northwest Texas
looks to slowly shift southeastward into North-Central Texas. This
will keep winds light (under 10 mph) for those west of the I-35
corridor. Along and east of the I-35 corridor where the surface
pressure gradient will be tighter, expect another breezy day with
south/southwest winds of 15-25 mph. Fortunately, the stronger
winds on Wednesday will be displaced to the east of the 20-30% RH
air expected west of the I-35 corridor. As such, fire weather
concerns will generally be low during the day on Wednesday.
Wednesday will also be the warmest day of the week with highs
ranging from the upper-70s to the mid-80s (some 15-25 degrees
above normal).
Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a cold front will dive
south across the region bringing a switch back to northerly winds
at the surface. This will help lows drop into the lower 50s and
upper 40s for much of North Texas. Further south into Central and
East Texas, frontal passage is not expected until later Thursday
morning, so lows will still be on the warmer side: in the upper-50s
and lower-60s. Breezy post frontal winds out of the north at 15-25
mph and afternoon RH in the 20-35% range will bring another day of
elevated fire weather concerns for Thursday. The upper-level
disturbance associated with this front will again be well to the
northeast of the region, keeping synoptic scale forcing for ascent
displaced from our area. As such, frontal passage on Thursday will
be dry despite the modest moisture return that is forecast the
couple of days preceding this system.
Thursday into the upcoming weekend, temperatures will remain above
average as highs are expected to stay in the 70s and low-80s with
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Ridging aloft will continue to
shunt storms to our north, keeping the Southern Great Plains dry
through the end of this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 436 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Light north flow (~5 knots) will slowly veer throughout the
current forecast period, switching to southerly flow sometime
between 21Z and 00Z Monday. After 14Z Tuesday, south winds will
strengthen to be sustained 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots.
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of
this forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 39 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 60 36 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 55 34 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 57 35 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 57 35 72 56 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 60 40 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 58 34 72 57 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 61 38 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 62 36 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 61 36 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
