Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
240
FXUS64 KFWD 171826
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1226 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across all of
North and Central Texas today, with the threat shifting to areas
near/west of I-35 Sunday.
- A few sprinkles or snow flurries could be observed in parts of
North Texas during the daytime today.
- Rain chances (20-50%) return to the eastern half of the region
on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a
steep longwave trough that is draped across the western 2/3rds of
the CONUS. A shortwave disturbance continues to dig south as it
rounds the base of the trough, providing enough lift to allow
dense mid-level cloud cover to gradually spread south across more
of the region this afternoon. Light precipitation echoes are
expected to persist across areas north of I-20 up towards the Red
River through afternoon, but not much is expected to reach the
ground due to dry air in the low-levels of the atmosphere.
However, forecast soundings show a bit of top-down saturation this
afternoon, which can be observed by lowering cloud heights on
METARs. This deepening moisture profile alongside sub-freezing
temps aloft and present ascent will promote a few flurries and/or
sprinkles north of I-20 through the afternoon. As such, we will
continue to message the low chance for some isolated sprinkles and
flurries for portions of North Texas. Any precipitation will come
to an end later this afternoon/evening as the increased mid-level
moisture finally exits to our east/southeast.
Otherwise, the lingering cloud cover across much of the region
will keep afternoon high temperatures slightly cooler in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Expect continued cold conditions overnight into
Sunday, where temperatures will drop into the upper teens to mid
20s. Make sure to bundle up if you leave your house, and to
protect the 4 P`s - pets, people, plants, and pipes. Tomorrow will
be a bit warmer as southerly winds return underneath mostly sunny
skies. Afternoon highs are expected to peak in the 50s and 60s.
Breezy winds and low RH values will set us up for an elevated fire
weather threat both today and tomorrow, with the highest concern
for areas near and west of I-35 where RH is lowest and winds are
stronger. There is quite a bit of dried fuels across the region,
so make sure to avoid any activities that could produce fire
starts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Another digging disturbance will shunt a cold front southward
late Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures cooler through the
first half of this upcoming week. Expect near to below freezing
morning lows and afternoon highs mainly in the 40s and 50s through
Tuesday. By midweek, warmer and moister air will be advected
northward in response to a digging shortwave disturbance. This
isentropic upglide will promote isolated to scattered showers to
develop across portions of the region on Wednesday, mainly near
and east of I-35. As the aforementioned shortwave swings across
the Plains, it`s attendant cold front will be ushered through the
region as we head into Thursday. A quick warm up (highs mainly in
the 60s) will occur at the end of the week and into next weekend
before yet another cold front brings cooler temperatures and
another potential shot at rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Breezy north-northwesterly winds and mid-level cloud cover will
persist at all TAF sites through the rest of today. Light
precipitation echoes continue to be present on radar, but not much
(if any) of this is reaching the surface due to a large dry layer
below the clouds. We can`t rule out a couple sprinkles or
flurries in northern and eastern D10 this afternoon, but this
would be few and far between. Winds will decrease in speed this
evening, with a very narrow window of NW-WNW winds possible
between 00-03Z. Overnight, expect light winds to prevail with
clearing skies. Winds will return out of the southwest near
daybreak tomorrow, increasing in speeds over the course of the
morning and afternoon. Another cold front is expected to push
through late Sunday into Monday, but this will be covered in
future issuances.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 26 60 33 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 50 24 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 43 20 53 29 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 46 18 60 26 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 46 20 57 29 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 47 26 60 34 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 47 20 57 30 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 50 25 60 33 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 51 23 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 45 20 63 27 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
