Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
086
FXUS64 KFWD 142335
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below freezing temperatures are expected tonight with lows in
the 20s to near 30 degrees by Monday morning.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will return to the region for
most of the upcoming workweek with minimal rain chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
A chilly Sunday afternoon is in store for us as the cold airmass
remains in place. Afternoon highs will remain in the 40s for much
of our area, with a few locations near the Red River staying in
the upper 30s. The northerly winds will continue to decrease this
afternoon/evening as the surface high pressure over the Central
Plains continues to move southward. While the low clouds have been
slow to erode this morning, much of North Texas should still see
a couple of hours of sunshine this afternoon. In contrast, clouds
will likely linger over Central Texas the rest of the day.
For tonight, temperatures will drop to below freezing across much
if not the entire area. With mostly clear skies and relatively
light winds, lows will drop to the 20s to near 30 by Monday
morning. Some areas in North Texas could still see wind chills in
the upper teens or lower 20s. As advertised in previous forecasts,
some of the high-res models continue to trend toward a swath of
low clouds arriving from the west/southwest Monday morning.
Forecast soundings depict at least some decent moisture in the
925-800mb layer as the south/southwesterly winds returns. At this
time, it looks like the clouds will be approaching the I-35
corridor by mid-late morning spreading east in the afternoon and
evening. Areas that stay cloudy all day will remain in the 40s to
low 50s, versus those locations with little to no cloud coverage
will likely warm in to the upper 50s. With the return of south
winds, temperatures Monday night won`t be as cold with lows
ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
A warming trend will begin on Tuesday through much of the week
with well above normal temperatures in the forecast. We`re looking
at highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s
through Thursday. With the surface ridge to our east, southerly
winds will prevail most of the week. Overall dry weather will
continue, but a passing shortwave near the base of an upper trough
to our north will bring at least some low rain chances over
portions of Central and East Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The pattern may become more amplified towards the end of the week
as another upper level system moves into the central and northern
Plains. This should send a cold front south towards our area on
Thursday. The bulk of the guidance show breezy north winds on
Thursday, but at this time it looks like the coldest airmass will
remain north of us. Winds will quickly return to the south by next
weekend with zonal flow aloft. Dry weather and warmer
temperatures are forecast with highs in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025
An arctic surface high pressure center, sprawled over much of the
Central and Eastern U.S. late this afternoon, continues to pump
cold, dry stable air southward through North Texas on the heels of
diminishing northerly winds. The shield of low clouds which
enveloped the Waco terminal and portions of D10 earlier today has
now retreated well south of the area, leaving clear skies at all
TAF sites tonight.
Short-term ensemble guidance and CAM-based soundings still suggest
that southwesterly low level flow will carry a bank of stratus
back into North Texas from the west through the late morning and
afternoon hours. The ensemble support for this evolution is
weaker than it was earlier today, but believe enough members still
depict a layer of BKN030 moving into the D10 area (and Waco) as
early as 18z to warrant inclusion in the 00z TAFs.
North to northeast winds across the region will diminish steadily
after sunset, leading to VRB04-05KT conditions for most of the
overnight period. Ultimately, the surface ridge will drift east of
our area by daybreak tomorrow, allowing winds to veer to a
southeasterly direction in the 11-14z timeframe, at speeds of 5-8
knots. Further veering to the south, with a slight increase in
speeds, should evolve at all TAF sites after 18z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 28 48 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 25 50 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 22 47 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 23 48 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 23 46 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 29 49 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 24 47 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 28 50 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 28 50 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 25 52 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
