Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
623
FXUS64 KFWD 202329
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and isolated thunderstorms will overspread most of the the
area tonight into Tuesday. No severe weather is expected.
- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve
late this week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Visible satellite imagery shows an expansive deck of low cloud
cover across Central and South Texas with radar showing some light
rain mainly in Central TX. All of this activity is in response to
modest isentropic ascent within a deep saturated layer ahead of a
weak upper disturbance spreading into West Texas. For the rest of
this afternoon, we`ll see cloud cover gradually expand and lower
across all of North Texas. Light rain will spread north with time,
although forecast and observed soundings show a substantial dry
sub cloud layer north of ongoing precipitation. This dry layer
will slowly saturate through the late evening and overnight hours
leading to a gradual increase in the coverage of precipitation.
The strongest forcing for ascent will arrive late tonight and
early Tuesday morning as the upper disturbance moves across the
region in conjunction with the strongest low level warm advection.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across most of North
and Central TX although rainfall amounts will generally be light.
Forecast soundings indicate a broad area of less than 500 J/kg of
MUCAPE amidst meager mid level lapse rates. This should support a
few instances of thunder, but severe weather is not expected at
this time. Rain chances will gradually shift across the area and
to our east by late in the day.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Coverage of showers and storms will continue to decrease Tuesday
evening but moisture will remain pooled east of I-35 into
Wednesday morning. While weak mid level ridging will quickly
traverse the region, low level warm moist advection will remain
sufficient to support a few scattered showers through the day.
We`ll maintain some low PoPs generally east of I-35 during this
time.
As we get into Thursday through the weekend, the pattern will
begin to favor a more typical spring time setup with a sharpening
dryline to our west and a warm moist airmass to the east beneath a
strong capping inversion. A shortwave will be spreading into the
Central Plains Thursday afternoon and should be well removed from
North Texas, however, a fairly sharp dryline will be parked just
west of the CWA by late afternoon and a branch of the subtropical
jet will be nosing in atop a strongly unstable airmass. While the
overall chances for deep convection are likely less than 10%
across our western counties, there is still some low potential for
an isolated severe storm.
Chances will increase on Friday into the weekend as a surface low
slowly moves across Oklahoma and the dryline pushes a little
farther east into our western counties. Convection should be
ongoing along a cold front to our northeast, but may steadily
develop farther south along the front/dryline through the late
afternoon. Strong afternoon instability will support a threat for
severe storms into late Friday evening. This pattern will continue
on Saturday and Sunday with a continued threat for severe storms
during the late afternoon and evening hours. We`ll have to really
watch Saturday afternoon/evening as low level winds may remain
sharply backed in the vicinity of the aforementioned frontal
boundary. If so, any surface based storms would pose a greater
threat for tornadoes in the strongly unstable airmass. At this
time PoPs will generally remain 20-30% given the overall
uncertainty in the finer scale details, but a general increase in
severe weather probabilities is expected headed into the weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
While VFR and tranquil weather currently prevails at all TAF
sites, widespread showers and isolated storms will begin
overspreading the entire area from the southwest overnight into
Tuesday. This activity will be accompanied by an IFR cloud deck
with 500-800 ft cigs prevailing through most of the daytime
tomorrow. Temporary conditions within heavier precipitation could
consist of MVFR/IFR visibility along with intermittent drops to
LIFR cigs. There is a slim potential for isolated lightning
strikes as well, and this would be most likely around or just
before sunrise with the initial activity which should have access
to meager but non-negligible elevated instability. Remaining
activity though the rest of the period will consist of showers
and light rain/mist before tapering off after 00z. Cigs could fall
to LIFR on Tuesday night, but this potential is currently too
uncertain to advertise at the very end of the valid TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 65 58 78 / 70 70 20 20
Waco 56 64 60 78 / 80 80 20 30
Paris 52 63 55 75 / 20 50 30 30
Denton 52 64 55 77 / 70 60 20 20
McKinney 53 64 57 76 / 60 60 30 30
Dallas 56 64 58 78 / 70 70 20 30
Terrell 53 64 58 78 / 60 60 30 30
Corsicana 56 67 60 80 / 70 80 30 40
Temple 55 67 60 80 / 90 80 30 30
Mineral Wells 52 64 56 79 / 80 60 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dunn
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
