Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
555
FXUS64 KFWD 031925
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily rain and storm
chances tomorrow through this weekend.
- Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of North and
Central Texas near a cold front.
- After a relative lull in precipitation coverage Thursday,
multiple rounds of thunderstorms will bring a severe weather and
flash flooding threat to much of North and Central Texas Friday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Expect another dry and mild afternoon across North and Central
Texas where the main concern will be the breezy conditions. South
winds around 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph will persist the rest
of the afternoon, decreasing slightly after 6 pm this evening.
Otherwise, clouds will continue to scatter out as temperatures
warm into the upper 70s and 80s.
A surface low pressure and cold front currently near the TX/OK
Panhandle will continue to track southward across Oklahoma and NW
Texas tonight and approach our Red River counties by tomorrow
morning. At the same time, another round of widespread low clouds
will spread northward into our region. This should keep our
environment fairly stable through the morning hours with better
potential to see showers and storms later in the afternoon.
We`re still expecting the front to slow down and become nearly
stationary across North Texas (near the I-35 and I-20 corridors).
While we could see a few light showers or isolated storms develop
early in the afternoon, we will need a few more hours of
destabilization for storms to really get going. Based on the
latest high-res guidance, the best window for storms to develop
across our area will be between 4pm and midnight. Some of these
storms could organize into small clusters and become severe with
hail (less than 2 inches) and damaging winds (60-70 mph) as the
main threats. While we can`t rule out the potential for a couple
of tornadoes, the threat is lower for our area. The storm mode
will likely remain fairly messy through the evening with most of
the activity dissipating after midnight. The front will then
retract northward towards Oklahoma late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
A period of relatively quiet weather is still expected on
Thursday as the main source of lift remains north of our area.
A few warm advection showers/storms may still able to develop but
the coverage should remain around 20-40%. Areas near the frontal
boundary (along our Red River counties) will have the best chance
to see this activity during the day. Afternoon temperatures will
still warm into the upper 70s and 80s due to breezy south winds.
As the mid-week system departs to our east, the next upper trough
will begin to approach the southern/central Plains on Friday. At
the surface, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in
place across the region with a dryline developing across West
Texas and the surface low over western KS. The environment
continues to be supportive for at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially in the afternoon and
evening. As expected, there`s still uncertainty in how many
storms we will see on Friday, as it will depend on how much
convergence we see ahead of the surface feature and how far east
the dryline will move into our region. Nevertheless, the potential
for a few severe storms with hail, damaging winds and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes still exists for our area. While the severe
risk should decrease Friday night, rain and storm chances will
continue into Saturday as the front moves through our region.
The combination of the surface cold front and another trough to
our west will result in additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend. At this time, it looks like the
main trough won`t begin to eject until early next week, keeping
our area fairly active with on-and-off rain through at least next
Tuesday. With multiple days of precipitation, we could see the
threat for flooding increase across our region. Average rainfall
totals currently range from 1-3 inches, but isolated higher
amounts are possible.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
VFR conditions will prevail the rest of the day with breezy south
winds. Speeds around 10-18 kts with occasional gusts up to 25-28
kts are expected the rest of the afternoon, decreasing slightly in
the evening. Another round of low clouds will spread across the
region overnight tonight (after 08-09Z) with MVFR ceilings through
much of the day Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to move south
near the Red River Wednesday morning, becoming nearly stationary
as it approaches the D10 region after 18Z. The position of the
frontal boundary will not only impact the wind direction at the
TAF sites, but also where showers and storms will begin to
develop. While we can`t rule out a few showers/storms early in the
afternoon, the best window for scattered thunderstorms to impact
any of the DFW Metroplex sites is expected to be between 23-05Z.
The wind shift to the north will likely occur near or after 00Z
Thursday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 77 64 / 0 10 50 70
Waco 84 67 80 65 / 0 0 50 50
Paris 79 64 77 62 / 10 10 50 70
Denton 82 63 76 58 / 0 10 60 70
McKinney 81 65 77 63 / 0 10 50 70
Dallas 83 68 78 65 / 0 10 50 70
Terrell 81 65 79 64 / 0 10 50 60
Corsicana 85 68 80 66 / 10 0 50 50
Temple 85 66 81 65 / 0 0 50 40
Mineral Wells 85 63 75 58 / 0 10 60 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
