Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
437
FXUS64 KFWD 091859
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
159 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a low chance for storms to brush the Red River counties
late tonight into early Sunday morning. A severe storm cannot be
ruled out.
- A more organized round of thunderstorms is expected Sunday
afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
Before we get to the active weather tomorrow tomorrow, a dryline
will bring a low chance for storms this evening across western
North TX, with a an isolated storm or two possibly developing
across the eastern Panhandle/western OK between ~5-7 PM and then
shifting southeast. There is a 10-20% chance this activity is
able to survive as it moves southeast into our Red River counties.
The severe threat cannot be ruled out, but this activity is
expected to be on a weakening trend and small hail is likely to
be the main threat.
Sunday/Sunday Night: Some uncertainty still exists with
tomorrow`s storm evolution. The cold front should advance through
the TX/OK Panhandles late tonight, moving through Oklahoma into
the early morning hours. As this occurs, a complex of
thunderstorms are expected to develop across Oklahoma. High res
guidance is focusing the area of storms primarily on an eastward
motion through Central OK into Arkansas where there is stronger
low level flow and moisture combined with a compact upper
shortwave moving through, rather than a S/SE trajectory more along
the front.
Because of the uncertainty, the extent of the severe threat and the
timing across North Texas is harder to narrow down at this point,
but not much has changed in the overall forecast. If the scenario
occurs where this complex avoids North TX mostly or altogether
and gets ahead of the front, this would result in limited or no
contamination in terms of available instability when the front
actually moves through. The most likely area to be impacted in
the mid to late morning with this complex (if it occurs in our
area) would be near/east of I-35 and north of HWY 380/I-30.
Severe weather is unlikely with this activity but storms could
become strong with mainly a wind threat and a lower hail threat.
The morning complex will need to be closely watched for any
changes, but forecast consensus still narrows in on the I-20
corridor in the afternoon for development (or potential
reintensification for storms if morning storms occur east of
I-35). Instability ticks up to ~2,000-3000 J/kg in the moist warm
sector ahead of the front, with little or no capping in place to
inhibit development as daytime heating commences. Initially
discrete storms will have a more significant hail threat as well
as a low tornado threat, in addition to the potential for damaging
winds. The most likely timing with this is around 1-3 PM, with
discrete storms developing into clusters with the southward moving
front. These multicell clusters will likely develop within a
couple of hours of initiation, with no inhibition and strong
enough instability to promote rapid development of updrafts. The
storm interactions with this should then temper the potential for
very large hail (> 2"), but severe hail (1" or greater) will
still be possible with these clusters. Of more notable concern,
an enhanced wind threat looks to evolve with steep low level lapse
rates and an environment favorable for cold pool mergers
supporting a more widespread damaging wind potential. Upscale
growth will continue into the late evening as storms shift into
Central TX, with the dominant threat still damaging winds.
Behind the front, lingering ascent and moisture will support
scattered showers and storms across North TX through the late
evening, after the main storms have moved through. These storms
will be capable of an isolated hail threat with modest instability
still in place and lapse rates of ~7-7.5 C/km. In terms of heavy
rain, efficient rain rates greater than an inch per hour look to
develop for parts of the area with the upscale growth. This may
be enhanced in parts of Central TX as some of the guidance looks
to orient the line more west-east in Central TX which would
support training of storms as the entire line propagates south.
The overall threat isn`t significant, but locally higher amounts
of 2-4" will be possible in any areas that see slower moving
storms or repeated development. Storms will shift south of the
area overnight, with lingering precip Monday morning (20-30%) in
eastern Central TX.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
After storms exit, a much quieter week is expected to follow. Monday
will feature cooler conditions behind the front with highs around 5
to 10 degrees lower than Sunday. Ridging will expand aloft across
the West, impinging on the Southern Plains by midweek. This will
result in a warming trend through Wednesday, climbing into the mid
80s/low 90s for most. Highs will be fairly stagnant through the
end of the week with little change in the overall pattern. Some
guidance is showing the ridge breaking down by the end of the
week, but there is little agreement overall with no rain chances
in the forecast through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
Concerns... winds gradually shifting to the south with TSRA
potential returning Sunday afternoon.
Winds across the area have maintained a northerly direction around 7
to 10 kts through midday with a gradual shift to SE expected this
afternoon and evening around 4-8 kts. VFR prevail with a mostly SKC
outside of a few daytime Cu and some passing cirrus. By tomorrow
morning, winds will be southerly again around 7 to 10 kts.
There is a non-zero, but very low potential that northern D10 is
skirted by convection late tonight, with the chance of this
occurring around 5-10%. The more significant potential for
thunderstorms arrives with a cold front Sunday afternoon. Have
introduced VCTS at 21Z for DFW with additional TSRA mention likely
in future TAF issuances.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested Sunday across the
entire region. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 69 85 62 / 0 0 80 70
Waco 87 69 88 64 / 0 0 40 80
Paris 84 64 78 60 / 0 10 90 50
Denton 87 68 82 59 / 0 10 80 50
McKinney 88 68 81 61 / 0 10 80 50
Dallas 88 70 86 63 / 0 0 80 70
Terrell 85 67 84 62 / 0 0 80 60
Corsicana 87 69 88 65 / 0 0 50 80
Temple 86 70 89 65 / 10 0 20 90
Mineral Wells 88 67 86 58 / 0 10 80 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gordon
LONG TERM....Gordon
AVIATION...Gordon
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
