Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 031026 AAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
526 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

/Early This Week/

Recent discussion(s) below and current forecast look in good order
with nothing to add or adjust on this update. Have a great day!


Previous Discussion:
/Through Tuesday/

The earlier discussion below still is valid through Monday night,
with similar trends (A little warmer and relatively more humid)
continuing into Tuesday. Lows will average in the 50s, while highs
average in the 80s. East and Southeast winds around 10 mph are
expected today before becoming more southerly on Tuesday. No
rainfall is expected.


Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday Night/

Beautiful weather will continue for the next few days with cool
mornings and mild afternoons. A branch of the Subtropical Jet is
bringing a healthy dose of upper level moisture into Central and
South Texas, but this should not amount to anything beyond passing
cirrus. The low levels remain very dry, which also explains the
large diurnal curve between the morning lows and afternoon highs.
The area is on back side of a strong high pressure ridge planted
over the Eastern CONUS, so as the flow becomes more southeasterly
tomorrow, a modest amount of moisture will start creep back into
the area. This will be most evident with the morning lows getting
progressively warmer by a degree or two each of the next several



.LONG TERM... /Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022/
/Tuesday night through Sunday/

The weather pattern will remain fairly stagnant the first half of
the  week with ridging aloft and dry air through a deep layer of
the atmosphere. The result will be mostly sunny days, clear nights
and a large diurnal temperature spread. Lows Tuesday night will
range from the mid 50s to around 60 and highs Wednesday will be
in the 80s except for a few lower 90s in Central Texas.

The upper ridge will deamplify while shifting towards the East
Coast the second half of the week with a deepening trough across
the center of the CONUS and an amplifying ridge across the West
Coast. The main energy with the upper trough will remain displaced
well to the north across the Great Lakes and Upper Mid West but
as the trough axis moves east it will send a cold front southward
across the Plains late in the week. A thin layer of moisture near
the surface will gradually make it into North and Central Texas
ahead of the front Wednesday night/Thursday resulting in slightly
warmer lows (low to mid 60s) and a few more daytime clouds
Thursday. Light southerly flow ahead of the front will likely
turn to the north near the Red River Thursday afternoon with the
passage of a pre frontal trough. The actual cold front is progged
to move across North and Central Texas Friday/Friday night. The
absence of large scale forcing for ascent and very limited
moisture will hinder precipitation development along the front.
Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front, keeping
highs Saturday and Sunday generally in the lower and middle 80s,
except for near the Red River where temperatures will struggle to
get out of the 70s. The reinforcement of drier air and slightly
breezier conditions will keep the threat for wildfire starts
elevated through the weekend.

There are still indications in both the GFS and ECMWF that some rain
may return to portions of the forecast area about a week from now
associated with an upper trough approaching from the Desert
Southwest. More details on this potential for rain will be
provided in later forecast discussions.



/12z TAFs/

See little, if any change from 06z/09z TAFs. Everything appears to
be in good order with no significant changes anticipated.


Previous Discussion:
/06Z TAFs/

Similar to recent days, no concerns are expected through tonight.
VFR continues with the sub-tropical jet stream resulting in SCT-
BKN clouds mostly AOA FL200. E-SE winds today 10 kts or less will
become light E or ESE tonight, before becoming more S-SE 10-15 kts
beyond 15z Tuesday.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  60  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                88  55  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               85  55  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              85  56  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            86  55  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              86  60  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             85  56  85  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           86  58  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              88  56  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       86  54  87  55  91 /   0   0   0   0   0




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion