Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
565
FXUS64 KFWD 101028
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon across
parts of North Texas. Severe weather will become likely by
evening across much of the region. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the main threats.
- Some storms will linger into Wednesday mainly along and east
of I-35 with a continued threat for hail.
- Warm and dry conditions are expected through the end of the
week after storms move out of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Weak ridging between a shortwave trough moving through the Deep
South and an upper low over the Gulf of California will provide
generally quiet weather over the next 12 hours or so. It is
possible that some warm/moist advection showers may form this
morning as the low level jet ushers in low clouds and more gulf
moisture, but any precip would be light and short lived. CLouds
and a persistent south breeze will otherwise keep temperatures
well above normal, with morning lows expected to remain in the mid
to upper 60s (a few sites may may not drop below 70).
Meanwhile, the primary weather feature of note is the upper low
off to our west, which will generate an active convective period
across much of Texas today and Wednesday. For North and Central
Texas, synoptic scale lift will begin to arrive as the atmosphere
destabilizes this afternoon. Recent CAMs have keyed in on a
region of enhanced moisture and lift over Central Texas as being
the most likely location where the first round of convection will
initiate (around 2-3 PM). Without a surface focusing mechanism,
updrafts will need to overcome a warm layer in the 850-700mb
layer, but any cells that do form will have a good chance of
becoming severe. Though storms may remain isolated in nature, an
unstable and highly sheared environment will make all modes of
severe weather possible.
The afternoon storms will begin to exit to the east around sunset
as new development occurs across the Big Country along a dryline.
Initial dryline development should be in the form of supercells,
any of which would be capable of 2+ inch hail and damaging winds
gusts, primarily for areas near and west of Highway 281. Southwest
to northeast oriented shear vectors will lead to rapid upscale
growth into a linear system as the dryline advances east. Damaging
winds and a few spin-up tornadoes will be possible as the QLCS
encroaches on the I-35 corridor late in the evening. Large hail
may also remain a concern if any embedded supercells are able to
maintain a rotating updraft for an extended period of time, but
the hail threat typically decreases when storm mode transition
from discrete to linear.
Either way, an overall downward trend in intensity is expected
after midnight as this line crosses, then moves east of I-35, due
to the loss of instability and re-strengthening of the cap. That
being said, a few line segments may still be capable of damaging
winds as convection continues across East and eastern Central
Texas into the pre-dawn hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Though the upper low will be progressive, it doesn`t look like it
will completely merge with a northern branch shortwave like it
did at this time yesterday. This will slow the system down just
enough to generate one last round of thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Convection will likely become focused along a trailing cold front,
with the best coverage and highest POPs being along/south of I-30
and along/east of I-35, though isolated storms will still remain
possible farther west and north. The cold core aloft and
subsequent steep lapse rates, along with nearly 50 knots of
effective shear, may lead to the development of a few severe
storms with both damaging winds and quarter to half dollar sized
hail possible. Timing of the potential strong to severe
thunderstorms would be late morning through Wednesday afternoon.
All activity will exit to the east and south near or shortly after
sunset as the upper low moves east and the cold front pushes
south. Much cooler air will enter behind the front, with Thursday
morning lows ranging from the upper 30s to the middle 40s.
Thursday will end up being a rather cool and pleasant day as high
pressure settles in, with plentiful sun and highs in the 60s.
Return flow will resume on Friday as the post-frontal ridge shifts
east of the region. This and an upper ridge nosing in from the
west will lead to a warming trend this weekend, with lows in the
50s and 60s along with highs in the 70s and 80s. A trough will
then rapidly deepen across the eastern half of the CONUS Sunday
and Monday, sending a strong cold front through the region. Much
cooler weather will be the result as we start next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
An active 30 hour period will begin today, starting with MVFR this
morning, followed by a round of afternoon convection (mainly in
the 20-24Z time frame). There will be a 3-4 hour lull following
the afternoon storms before a line of dryline-induced convection
encroaches from the west. These storms will be mainly in the
04-08Z time frame in the DFW Metroplex, but will likely wait
until after 06Z to affect KACT.
The line will weaken after moving through the area, but continued
development of scattered SHRA / isolated TS will occur overnight
into Wednesday as an upper level low move directly overhead. Since
the overnight/Wednesday activity may me mostly SHRA with
occasional embedded TSRA, will indicate VCTS for now and reassess
later today or tonight. Occasional storms may continue through
the morning before a cold front clears things out around 18Z
Wednesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested this afternoon near
and south of I-20, and this evening across western North Texas.
Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of
hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 63 77 44 / 20 90 50 10
Waco 80 61 77 45 / 60 80 60 30
Paris 78 62 74 42 / 50 90 70 20
Denton 80 59 75 39 / 30 90 40 10
McKinney 80 63 75 42 / 20 90 50 20
Dallas 81 62 77 45 / 20 90 50 20
Terrell 80 63 76 43 / 50 90 70 30
Corsicana 83 65 78 47 / 60 80 80 30
Temple 82 62 78 45 / 50 80 60 30
Mineral Wells 82 57 76 39 / 60 90 30 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
