Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
465
FXUS64 KFWD 281145
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return late Friday
through early Sunday. A few strong storms with hail are also
possible on Saturday, mainly in Central Texas.
- A strong cold front will move through the area late Saturday
into early Sunday bringing the coldest weather of the season so
far from Sunday through Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning
will drop into the mid teens to mid 20s.
- Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The
potential for any light sleet or freezing rain continues to
decrease. No impacts are expected, even if a brief window of
wintry precipitation does occur.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
Cloud cover will steadily increase this morning as a broad
warm/moist advection regime takes hold of the Southern Plains.
Southerly flow will continue to deepen and strengthen within the
850-700 mb layer, with forecast soundings indicating a thickening
deck of mid-level clouds expanding from west to east through
daybreak. Despite the increasingly clouds skies, temperatures will
be similar or within a few degrees of Thursday morning`s
readings, with most locations dipping into the upper 30s to lower
40s by sunrise.
Moisture and ascent will continue to increase through the day
Friday as a pair of disturbances approach the region. The first, a
subtle shortwave emerging out of northern Mexico, will help
initiate ascent across western North and Central Texas by late
morning or early afternoon. While radar echoes may begin to appear
across our western zones during the day, much of this initial
activity will struggle to reach the ground due to a persistent dry
sub-cloud layer. Forecast soundings depict modestly steep low-
level lapse rates with pronounced dry air below 850 mb, so while
radar returns are probable early in the afternoon, most of the
precipitation will likely manifest as high-based showers or
virga. As a result, PoPs have been capped at 15-25% through the
afternoon hours, mainly west of I-35.
Rain chances will ramp up this evening into the overnight hours
as stronger forcing overspreads the region from the west. This is
tied to a more robust shortwave diving southeastward out of the
Central Rockies, which will enhance ascent across a broad area and
support deeper saturation. Scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected to develop late Friday night, with the
greatest concentration along and west of I-35 through much of the
overnight period. Despite modest instability (MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg),
steepening lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft may allow a
few storms to become capable of producing small hail. The overall
threat for severe weather remains low, however, with any stronger
updrafts likely to be isolated. Otherwise, temperatures will be
more mild Friday night as a thick blanket of clouds and increasing
southerly winds keep lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
The latest guidance continues to suggest a relative lull in
convection for many areas from daybreak Saturday through mid
afternoon as the initial shortwave departs and weak subsidence
develops in its wake. Any residual showers or isolated storms will
likely be scattered and weakening through the morning hours,
especially north of the I-20 corridor. However, warm air advection
will continue through the day with gradually improving
thermodynamics as low to mid 60s surface dewpoints return beneath
6.5-7.5 C/km lapse rates. This should support increasing
instability by Saturday afternoon, especially across Central and
East Texas.
As a strong cold front pushes into the region from the north,
renewed development of showers and thunderstorms is expected ahead
of and along the boundary. With deep layer shear values in the
40-50 kt range, the setup could support a few stronger storms with
the potential for hail and gusty winds. The better overlap of
shear and instability remains across our southeastern counties,
where an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The
front will continue surging southward Saturday evening, quickly
ending precipitation chances across the region by late Saturday
night.
A stout cold advection regime will follow the front, with strong
north winds ushering in the coldest air mass of the season thus
far. For temperatures, Saturday will likely be one of those non-
diurnal days where the daily high temperature occurs prior to
normal peak heating hours, then drop steadily behind the front.
Post-frontal wind speeds were nudged closer to the NBM 75th
percentile to account for the tight pressure gradient and 925-850
mb flow in the 30-40 kt range. Sub-freezing lows are forecast for
many areas from Sunday through Tuesday, with Monday night into
Tuesday morning appearing to be the coldest stretch. Wind chills
Sunday morning will range from the mid teens to mid 20s, even
though surface wind speeds will only be around 10-15 mph.
Rain chances return Monday as a positively-tilted upper trough
ejects across the central CONUS. While forecast soundings show a
deep cold surface layer in place, they also indicate the bulk of
the precipitation will occur when temperatures are above freezing.
However, there is a narrow window during which a wintry mix could
still develop (primarily sleet or freezing rain) in the immediate
vicinity of the Red River Monday morning. The potential for
meaningful impacts from any precipitation remains low. Model
trends continue to favor a progressive system, with precipitation
likely ending before subfreezing temperatures return Monday night.
Highs will gradually climb out of the 40s beginning Tuesday, with
more widespread 50s and 60s by mid to late next week as southerly
flow returns. Some ensemble guidance is continuing to hint at
another cold front arriving towards the end of the forecast
period, but predictability remains low beyond Day 6.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025
VFR flight conditions expected to prevail through much of the
daytime hours with light southeast winds increasing to around
10-12 kts as the surface pressure gradient tightens in advance of
an approaching upper disturbance. Ceilings will steadily lower
this afternoon as mid-level moisture increases, with OVC050
expected by early afternoon. Isolated high-based showers or virga
may develop across the D10 airspace after 18Z, but a dry sub-cloud
layer should preclude measurable precipitation through the day.
Brief turbulence may accompany these virga elements.
Shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will become more
probable late this evening into the overnight hours as ascent
increases from the west. MVFR cigs around 2500 ft are expected to
develop at the Metroplex terminals after 05Z, with VCTS included
to account for the low but non-zero thunderstorm potential. Future
amendments may be needed to introduce a TEMPO group for heavier
showers or TSRA.
A more pronounced wind shift and the associated higher TSRA
coverage accompanying the cold front is expected just beyond the
current extended TAF period. This frontal passage and the
associated impacts will be addressed in subsequent TAF issuances
as timing becomes more certain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 50 69 33 / 10 80 70 10
Waco 60 54 73 35 / 10 70 60 30
Paris 58 44 58 29 / 0 80 90 30
Denton 57 47 68 28 / 10 80 60 10
McKinney 59 48 66 30 / 10 80 80 20
Dallas 59 49 70 33 / 10 80 70 20
Terrell 61 49 67 33 / 10 80 80 30
Corsicana 63 54 71 37 / 10 70 80 40
Temple 63 54 74 37 / 10 60 50 30
Mineral Wells 61 49 73 30 / 20 70 40 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
