Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
156
FXUS64 KFWD 220613
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1213 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Following chilly mornings with near or below freezing low
temperatures today and tomorrow, warmer and rain-free conditions
are forecast through most of the upcoming week.
- An elevated wildfire threat will materialize Tuesday through
Thursday due to above normal temperatures, low humidity, and
breezy southwesterly winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Seasonably cool and pleasant weather will prevail to end the
weekend and begin the workweek. A dry post-frontal airmass will
continue to support favorable nighttime radiational cooling,
leading to near or below freezing low temperatures both this
morning and again on Monday morning. Daytime highs will warm into
the mid 50s to mid 60s both afternoons with winds of 10-15 mph and
mostly clear skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
The extended forecast period will be predominantly rain-free, with
the return of elevated fire weather conditions midweek being the
main story. Following the cool start to the workweek, a sharp
warming trend will ensue on Tuesday with highs returning to the
70s, with an even warmer day expected on Wednesday due to veering
southwesterly winds. Both of these days will feature low humidity
and breezy wind speeds, with limited moisture return despite the
renewed southerly low-level flow regime. This will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area on
Tuesday, and mainly west of US-281 on Wednesday on the western
side of a nearby slow-moving dryline. Wednesday`s temperatures
will also be as much as 15-20 degrees above normal in this area
with highs in the mid 80s. A cold front is forecast push through
on Thursday which will bring a modest cooldown along with a
reinforcing shot of dry air to end the workweek. This boundary is
expected to come through dry due to meager moisture within the
prefrontal warm sector, and all rain chances associated with it
will remain east of the forecast area. Even minor rain chances
won`t return until next weekend at the earliest.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
VFR/SKC will prevail through the entire period with north winds
at 8-12 kts. Expect some infrequent gusts of 15-20 kts, mainly
during the daytime.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 36 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 67 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 62 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 59 29 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 61 33 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 63 38 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 63 33 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 67 37 60 33 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 68 35 61 31 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 60 30 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
