Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
208
FXUS64 KFWD 271049
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front will arrive today, leading to much cooler
weather and scattered rain showers to end the workweek.
- Following a cool and cloudy Saturday, temperatures will return
to above normal from Sunday through the first half of next
week, with little to no chance for rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
A stout early spring cold front is set to arrive during the
daytime, which will deliver gusty north winds, much cooler air,
and some low rain chances to the area for the rest of today and
the beginning of the weekend. The frontal passage will also be
accompanied by a large swath of post-frontal stratus, which will
keep areas behind it overcast from this afternoon all the way
through Saturday. For our North Texas counties, high temperatures
will occur this morning, with readings nearly steady or falling
from midday through the afternoon hours. Central Texas on the
other hand will be able to warm well into the 80s early in the
afternoon prior to the front`s arrival. While post-frontal north
winds will become gusty at speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 30-35
mph, forecast speeds within the CWA are too marginal for a Wind
Advisory issuance, and the vast majority of the area will remain
below criteria.
850mb flow will remain out of the ESE atop the frontal surface
from this afternoon through Saturday morning, and this will result
in very favorable warm advection/isentropic ascent during this
time span. The result will be widespread cloud cover and
scattered embedded light rain showers which will be on the
increase from north to south late this afternoon and evening.
However, those hoping for meaningful rainfall will be
disappointed. Amounts are likely to max out at just a few
hundredths of an inch at most, with many areas not experiencing
measurable rainfall at all. For this reason, PoPs will be kept on
the low side of just 20-30%.
Overcast skies will continue into Saturday, and will remain in
place across much of the region well into the afternoon. This
will hold high temperatures mostly in the 60s, although some
portions of western North and Central Texas may struggle to make
it out of the mid 50s for highs. A few rain showers could linger
through the morning as well, mainly across Central Texas, before
this potential ends in the afternoon and skies gradually begin to
clear late in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Surface flow will return to southerly on Saturday night, with a
fast warming trend to end the weekend. With the return of sunny
skies and warm advection, Sunday`s highs will rebound into the
80s, about 20-25 degrees warmer than Saturday. Despite the
moisture return, rain chances will largely remain absent through
the first half of the workweek as zonal flow and modest height
rises continue through the mid-levels. Highs will remain above
normal during this time period, mainly in the 80s or lower 90s. A
Northern/Central Plains system will seep through the central CONUS
during the second half of the week, and we may catch the trailing
southern end of this system`s front and dynamic forcing, perhaps
resulting in scattered shower and thunderstorm activity heading
into the Day 6-7 time period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
SCT/BKN MVFR stratus has been filling in across parts of Central
and East Texas the past few hours, but veering southwesterly flow
has kept all cigs east of the airports so far. This trend should
largely continue, although a couple of hours of MVFR cigs at Waco
remain possible through mid morning. A strong cold front will
arrive by ~16z at the Metroplex airports and 18-19z at Waco,
abruptly shifting winds to northerly at 20G30KT. Ascent atop the
frontal layer will result in a vast expanse of MVFR cigs mainly
between 2-3 kft the rest of the afternoon and evening. In
addition, scattered light rain showers will gradually expand
southward through the afternoon and evening, and some light
precipitation can be expected at most airports before this
activity ends early Saturday. The frontal inversion will deepen
overnight, allowing cigs to climb above 3 kft, but a VFR deck will
remain in place well into Saturday at 4-5 kft.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 51 60 52 / 20 30 10 0
Waco 80 53 59 52 / 20 30 10 0
Paris 74 49 61 48 / 30 20 0 0
Denton 70 48 60 48 / 20 30 10 0
McKinney 71 50 61 51 / 20 30 10 0
Dallas 74 53 61 53 / 20 30 10 0
Terrell 75 51 60 50 / 20 30 10 0
Corsicana 79 53 62 53 / 20 20 10 0
Temple 79 51 59 51 / 10 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 68 46 58 47 / 30 30 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
