Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190736
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
236 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...New Long Term...
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 116 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
Update:
/Saturday/
With the below discussion handling increasing wet and cool forecast
trends pretty well through tonight (Friday night), the continued
ascent through the entire day Saturday will maintain the wet and
cool conditions across the region. Numerous showers with scattered
/embedded thunderstorms will keep temperatures in check. Any
thunderstorms across North Texas will be driven more by pockets
of mid level lapse rates between 6.5-7 deg C/km well above the
cool and damp surface airmass. However, eastern Central Texas will
be not far removed from the stalling front near the I-10 corridor.
These areas will be several degrees warmer than further north and
thus yielding some weak surface-based instability. This area will
be the most primed to see a few stronger storms with small hail
and gusty winds. However, the emphasis the early weekend period
will be more on the widespread light to moderate rainfall with
locally heavier pockets with embedded thunderstorms.
The primary lifting mechanisms will be a vigorous shortwave
arriving from northeast Mexico and aided by broad, albeit modest
ageostrophic ascent under a relatively weak southern branch jet
max of around 80 kts under 100 kts. The cloudy and rainy
environment defined by gusty northeasterly winds 15 to 20 mph will
make for not an overly pleasant Saturday for those with outdoor
plans or activities. The diurnal range from lows in the 50s (North
TX) and 60s (Central TX) will be on the order of 5 degrees or
less, as afternoon highs only warm to between 55 and 60 degrees
along and north of the I-20 corridor, to between 65 and 70 degrees
across those parts of Central TX along and south of Hwy 84.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion:
/This Evening through Saturday Morning/
The cold front is currently located near a Bonham-Cleburne-Llano
line and will steadily continue south/southeast over the course
of this evening. Some convective development has been observed
over the last couple hours, mainly across western Central Texas
where large hail has been reported. The potential for scattered
showers and storms along the front will continue through this
evening as RAP analysis shows the front moving into an unstable
airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 7-8 degC/km lapse rates.
This parameter space will continue to promote strong to severe
storms capable of hail and damaging winds. There continues to be a
non-zero tornado threat with this activity, but low-level SRH is
generally unfavorable enough to keep this threat on the lower
side. The front will continue to move through the region,
eventually exiting completely near daybreak Friday.
The cold front will eventually stall across South Texas, leaving
our area fully entrenched within the cooler post-frontal airmass.
Cloud cover will stick around as mid- and low-level moisture will
not be completely scoured out behind the boundary. The afternoon
hours should remain relatively dry as a lack of lift should keep
most precipitation from forming until the late evening and
overnight hours. By this time, an upper level shortwave will move
into the Central Plains and spread increased forcing for ascent
overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass. Expect more widespread
showers and storms to blossom across North and Central Texas
during the early morning hours on Saturday. Sounding profiles show
steep lapse rates and enough deep layer shear/MUCAPE to promote
some stronger storms capable of small hail, but the overall severe
threat is low at this time. Instances of heavy rain are also
expected through Saturday morning as PWATs in excess of 1.5" will
be widespread across North and Central Texas.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night Onward/
Rain and occasional elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing
Saturday night across mainly the eastern half of the forecast area
associated with the passage of a shortwave trough. Precipitation
will come to an end Sunday morning as the disturbance heads for
the central Gulf Coast states. Skies will eventually clear from
west to east Sunday afternoon as subsidence strengthens in the
wake of the departing shortwave, allowing for some sunshine by
late afternoon. This should help push temperatures into the 60s
Sunday afternoon. The post-frontal surface ridge will settle
across the region Sunday night. Clear skies, dry air, and light
winds will create ideal radiative cooling conditions, making for a
cool Sunday night with lows in the 40s. Pleasant weather is in
store for Monday as weak ridging builds overhead.
A deepening low over the Great Lakes will help push another cold
front south into the area on Tuesday. The front will stall,
providing a focus for the development of scattered showers and
isolated storms as another shortwave moves through during the mid
to late week period. At this time it looks like the strongest lift
associated with the shortwave (and best rain chances) will be
either Thursday or Friday, depending on which operational model
ends up being the most accurate. Will keep chance to slight
chance POPs in place from late Tuesday through Friday, and narrow
down the time line as better resolution model guidance is
received in the coming days. The upper level pattern will remain
unsettled beyond the extended period as another upper trough
approaches, likely bringing more rain and storm chances next
weekend.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 116 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
/06z TAFs/
Cigs fluctuating between low VFR and MVFR (mostly above 2 kft
outside of Waco Regional Airport) will be the primary challenges
through this evening.
Current cigs range between 035-060 across the D10 DFW airports
with Waco Regional airport on the cusp of high MVFR/low VFR at
030. Following primarily the HRRR/CONSSHORT and LAMP guidance
indicates the cooling boundary through daybreak will result in
high MVFR above 020 at D10 airports with more pessimistic low
MVFR cigs at Waco where the frontal inversion is expected to be
more shallow. The MVFR cigs will prevail into early afternoon,
before brief pockets of sunshine aid in warming surface
temperatures and allow cigs to return to low VFR. MVFR cigs do
return after nightfall this evening with the boundary layer
cooling once again and precipitation eventually increasing with an
approaching disturbance by/after midnight Saturday.
Northerly winds currently 15-20 kts will diminish to 10 kts or
less while veering northeasterly late in the day and this evening.
05/Marty
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 58 60 49 64 / 5 80 90 80 5
Waco 72 62 67 49 62 / 5 50 90 80 5
Paris 68 54 57 47 63 / 10 80 90 90 10
Denton 70 56 59 47 62 / 5 90 100 80 5
McKinney 71 57 59 48 63 / 5 80 100 90 5
Dallas 73 57 61 50 64 / 5 80 90 90 5
Terrell 71 58 61 49 62 / 5 80 90 90 10
Corsicana 73 61 65 51 64 / 5 60 90 90 5
Temple 73 62 71 49 62 / 5 40 80 90 5
Mineral Wells 70 57 60 47 62 / 5 90 100 70 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
