Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
950
FXUS64 KFWD 122307
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
607 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few storms will continue into the late
evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat.
- An active pattern will persist all week with storm chances and
potential for strong to severe storms both Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- A strong cold front this weekend is expected to bring much
cooler temperatures and dry weather for late weekend into early
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening mainly
south of I-20 within a warm uncapped airmass featuring modest
large scale forcing for ascent thanks to a passing disturbance.
The entrance region of a departing upper jet is nosing down into
North Texas this evening and should continue to support ascent
through the late evening hours. Meanwhile, at the surface a humid
airmass is in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s,
however there is a lack of any appreciable boundaries to focus
deeper convection. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms
extends from near Lampasas to Cleburne and has largely remained in
place across this area over the last hour or so. There is a weak
axis of higher theta-e air in this region with a notable decrease
in instability to the east. This moisture gradient may be
sufficient to maintain ongoing convection through the late evening
in the presence of modest large scale forcing for ascent. We`ll
maintain generally high PoPs in the area along I-35 and south of
I-20 through the late evening with an overall decrease in
convection expected as the aforementioned shortwave pulls out of
the region.
Given high PW values and limited inhibition, we would expect
rainfall rates to remain fairly efficient through the late
evening hours. The current Flood Watch across our far southeast
counties represents this potential, however this area is currently
void of precipitation given the focus for development is both to
the north and south of this area. Given the potential for some
redevelopment through the late evening hours in this moist
environment as the low level jet strengthens a bit, we`ll leave
the Flood Watch as is for now, but if additional precipitation
fails to develop, we`ll cancel this watch prior to midnight.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
The weather models are struggling with the expected trends for
rain and storms today, but continue to show a consensus for
training of storms and an increased potential for flash flooding
somewhere across Central Texas, the Hill Country, and/or the
Brazos Valley areas. For this reason and in collaboration with our
neighboring offices, we issued a Flood Watch from 1 pm through 4
am for four of our southernmost counties; but it`s possible the
Watch may need to be expanded north a row or two of counties.
The atmosphere remains very humid across the region with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s and PWAT values up to 1.5" (near the
maximum for this date). A weak upper level disturbance continues
to approach from the west and will be providing some larger scale
lift through the remainder of the day. Clouds have remained in
place across most of the region, limiting the amount of
destabilization so far, with some occasional scattering of the
clouds across western portions of our coverage area. The remnant
outflow boundary from this morning`s convection has washed out,
but the dryline can easily be identified in west Texas.
For the remainder of the day, the best coverage of showers and
storms is expected to be across Central Texas with more limited
coverage in North Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
should develop across Central Texas within the next few hours and
persist into the overnight hours. The models continue to suggest
the storms will consolidate along a band somewhere between Austin
and Waco, but the location is uncertain. Where this band sets up,
a higher threat for flash flooding will exist due to the slow
moving nature of the storms and efficiency for producing heavy
rainfall. The early morning model data placed the band of storms
just south of our coverage area, but newer high resolution data is
attempting to move the band farther north. If a more northward
location is realized, the Flood Watch will likely need to be
expanded north. Isolated rainfall totals up to 5" will be possible
in parts of Central Texas.
A low potential for strong/severe storms will exist in Central
Texas for the remainder of the day, but the area will struggle to
destabilize and the better environment will remain south of our
area. If storms become strong or severe, the main hazard will be
damaging winds and heavy rainfall, but hail and an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.
Another potential for isolated strong or severe storms will exist
through the early evening hours in our far western counties,
ahead of the dryline. This area is becoming more destabilized this
afternoon with CAPE and theta-e values increasing ahead of the
dryline. Shear vectors would be supportive of supercells, and any
storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail
and damaging winds, with a lower potential for tornadoes.
The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will persist into
the overnight hours near and where the band of storms forms in
Central Texas. The rain should dissipate and/or exit our area in
the middle of the night as the shortwave disturbance moves east
of the region. The potential for storms on Monday is much more
limited than today as we will be in shortwave ridging behind the
disturbance. However, there may be scattered small showers quickly
streaming from south to north during the morning hours with the
help of a strong low-level jet as ample moisture will remain in
place. Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur in East Texas
in the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Chances for rain and storms will continue Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday as another upper level trough approaches from
the west. On Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to form
along the dryline to our west and move into our area late into the
evening and overnight. A threat for severe storms will exist, but
the storms may be weakening as they move into our western
counties. The better potential for severe storms exists on
Wednesday as the upper level trough moves into the Plains. All the
ingredients for severe storms and heavy rainfall will be in place
on Wednesday, and all modes of severe weather will be possible.
It`s possible two rounds of storms may occur, and we will refine
the details on mode, location and timing over the next few days.
With yet another upper level trough moving into the western CONUS
Thursday and Friday, rain chances remain in the forecast Friday
through next weekend, and we may even have a few storms in our
western counties Thursday. It`s a little too early to assess the
severe storm potential beyond Wednesday with any confidence, but
we are in peak severe weather season now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue mainly south of the D10
airspace this evening, but we`ll have to monitor their northward
progress through the late evening. The 00Z issuance will remove
the TEMPO for TSRA as this initial activity diminished as it
approached the southern Metroplex. We`ll maintain MVFR cigs
through most of the night with a trend toward IFR in the early
morning hours Monday. It appears that rain chances will lower
through the overnight hours and we`ll remain generally
precipitation free through Monday. A warm moist airmass will
feature slow to scatter cigs with gradual improvement through the
afternoon and another round of MVFR cigs Monday night.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 85 68 82 / 20 20 10 10
Waco 68 82 67 81 / 50 20 10 10
Paris 66 80 66 80 / 40 20 10 10
Denton 66 85 66 81 / 10 20 10 10
McKinney 67 84 67 81 / 20 20 10 10
Dallas 68 84 68 82 / 20 20 10 10
Terrell 67 83 67 82 / 40 20 10 10
Corsicana 67 85 69 85 / 50 20 10 10
Temple 68 84 67 84 / 60 20 10 10
Mineral Wells 66 87 66 82 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for TXZ158-162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLDunn
LONG TERM....JLDunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
