Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
525
FXUS64 KFWD 230019
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread travel impacts due to wintry precipitation are
expected to begin Friday evening across North Texas and Saturday
across Central Texas. Precipitation will end Sunday, but travel
impacts will likely linger into at least Monday.
- Strong winds and ice on tree limbs and power lines could cause
sporadic power outages Saturday and Sunday.
- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero could
result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Extreme cold
will become life threatening to people and animals, especially
Saturday and Sunday nights.
- Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes
and water damage due to a prolonged period of sub-freezing
temperatures late Friday through Tuesday.
- Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be
completed now!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Large scale troughing continues to dominate much of the CONUS as
a potent mid-level system situates near Baja California. This is
the system responsible for the late week/weekend event. For the
rest of the day, tranquil weather will persist through tonight as
a weak stationary boundary remains just south of our area in
Central Texas. Widespread clouds will likely persist over the
eastern half of the region which will keep daytime highs likely
in the 50s to lower 60s. For tonight, clouds will again spread
across the entire region keeping lows generally in the 40s to
lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Mid Next Week)
Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Winter Weather Event:
The overall forecast trends continue to be in good shape as we
await the arrival of the very cold arctic airmass in addition to
the widespread mixed wintry precipitation across the region.
Similar to this morning, model guidance continues to show a
slower cool down, especially across the southern half of our
region. As a result, the arrival of the wintry precipitation will
be delayed to Friday evening/night for North Texas and Saturday
morning-early afternoon for Central Texas. In addition to the
later transition, we continue to adjust the precipitation types
with an increasing concern of receiving more freezing rain than
sleet (as previously anticipated). In terms of ice accumulations,
we didn`t deviate much from the last official forecast with
generally one quarter to up to one half of an inch possible across
the region. Areas along the Red River may see less ice and more
sleet/snow given the colder temperature profiles. Additionally,
some locations across the far southern zones may also see less
accumulations due to later transition to freezing rain. Be aware
that these totals will continue to change as new data arrives.
The important message here is that there`s a potential for
significant ice accumulations, and when we add the gusty
northerly winds, it will result in tree damage and therefore power
outages. Additionally, widespread impacts to road conditions are
also anticipated. With all that in mind, a Winter Storm Warning
has been issued for all North and Central Texas and preparations
should be finalized by late tonight or early tomorrow.
Most of the area will see the full transition to freezing rain,
sleet, and/or snow by Saturday afternoon/evening given the
continuous cold air advection. We should finally see an end of the
precipitation Sunday afternoon as the upper level wave departs to
our east. Unfortunately, the impacts won`t stop there. We`re
still expecting very cold temperatures each night from Saturday
through Monday, especially Sunday night with widespread lows in
the single digits. At this time, models are suggesting some
locations could see a few hours near or above freezing on Monday,
but temperatures will drop again below freezing Monday
evening/night.
Beyond the event:
Temperatures should steadily warm above freezing Tuesday with
highs in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday. No precipitation is
expected beyond this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Low MVFR/high IFR ceilings blanket the eastern half of our area
(and half of our TAF sites) and easterly flow should draw these
ceilings over all TAF sites within the next couple hours. From
there, the ceilings will only lower with time, eventually becoming
IFR then LIFR. The main question is when. We mainly used the LAMP
probabilities for this TAF cycle, adding change lines when the
probability generally exceeded 50%. Expect light precip or drizzle
to begin early tomorrow morning with off and on precip continuing
through Sunday morning. Expect winds to become out of the ENE at
the D10 TAFs later tonight, but remain out of the E-ESE at ACT
until after 00Z tomorrow.
D10:
Sub-freezing clouds below 2 kft are expected to develop around 00Z
(i.e. deicing operations), but the surface temp is not expected to
fall to or below freezing until 04-07Z. As soon as this occurs,
freezing rain and clear ice accumulation will begin. It may be a
little earlier at AFW/FTW and a little later at DAL/GKY since the
cold air will be moving north to south. This timing will be
refined in later TAFs. ACT will remain above freezing until
sometime Saturday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 44 48 27 30 / 30 90 100 100
Waco 50 54 31 34 / 20 70 90 100
Paris 41 43 22 25 / 10 70 100 100
Denton 39 45 24 28 / 20 90 100 100
McKinney 41 46 25 28 / 20 90 100 100
Dallas 45 49 27 30 / 30 90 100 100
Terrell 43 48 27 30 / 20 80 100 100
Corsicana 49 52 32 35 / 20 60 90 100
Temple 51 57 35 38 / 20 60 90 100
Mineral Wells 42 48 24 28 / 20 90 100 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ135-142>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Schroeder
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Bonnette
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
