Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
226
FXUS64 KFWD 141042
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast again today with
hot and dry weather continuing into next week.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Seasonably hot and dry weather will continue through the short
term forecast period along with elevated fire weather conditions.
Highs will once again approach or exceed the century mark for most
of the CWA this afternoon, while dewpoints mix into the 60s, or
even upper 50s across the Big Country. While this aggressive
mixing will keep heat index values below 105 across our western
zones, the rest of the forecast area is likely to see values
exceed 105 this afternoon, and the existing Heat Advisory has been
expanded to include much of Central and East Texas with this
morning`s update. Slightly higher humidity of 40-45% across our
southeast may preclude elevated fire weather conditions from
materializing there, but the rest of North and Central Texas will
reach an elevated fire threat as breezy southerly winds combine
with lower RH values and dry fuel conditions amid the scorching
hot temperatures. A Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued
again today to address this concern. Slightly lower wind speeds
are forecast for Saturday as a weakening Central Plains surface
low loses some influence on local wind fields. However, a
borderline elevated fire threat will likely continue into the
weekend for west/northwest portions of the area due to very dry
fuels and low afternoon humidity.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
The long term forecast period may end up featuring the hottest
weather of the year should guidance come to fruition as a stout
598dam mid-level ridge axis becomes centered overhead. High
pressure and subsidence will maintain rain-free conditions while
temperatures climb over 100F on a daily basis. Additional heat
headlines will be necessary through a majority of next week as a
result, either due to heat index values reaching 105 or ambient
temperatures exceeding 103. Wind speeds may be a bit lighter
through this time frame which may mitigate fire weather concerns
to an extent, but low RH and increasingly dry fuels will likely
still support an above average number of wildfire ignitions. At
this time, there are no mentionable rain chances through the next
6-7 days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
VFR conditions and breezy southerly winds will prevail through
the period at D10 airports. Very ragged MVFR stratus has spread
into parts of Central and East Texas early this morning, and a
short Tempo group will be included for Waco where short-lived cigs
may exist through about 13z. This cloud cover is expected to
remain southeast of all Metroplex terminals. Winds will slightly
diminish in speed this evening, and will remain around 10-15 kt
sustained heading into Saturday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 101 81 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 100 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 102 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 81 102 82 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 99 76 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123-133>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
