Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
763
FXUS64 KFWD 200144
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
744 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-normal temperatures will briefly return to the region this
weekend behind a cold front.
- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
The main concern in the short term will be the elevated to
critical wildfire threat that is expected to materialize today
across much of North Texas. A surface low currently in eastern
Kansas will continue to move east through the remainder of the
day. Surface winds are strengthening in response to the tightening
pressure gradient across the Southern Plains along with strong
vertical mixing. As a result, sustained northwest winds between
15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph are expected along and north of
US-380 this afternoon. Additionally, a swath of dry air is
currently pushing into the area from the northwest, which will
result in very low relative humidity (15-20%) this afternoon.
Given the dry and breezy conditions, a critical fire threat is
expected to materialize in our far northwestern zones where the
lowest humidity and strongest winds are expected. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for Young, Jack, Montague, and Cooke
counties. An elevated wildfire threat will exist for most of North
Texas and may also extend into western portions of Central Texas.
While our recent rainfall should somewhat offset the wildfire
threat, it appears we still have fuels that are dry, cured, and
susceptible to burning. Therefore, proper precautions should be
taken to prevent any grass fire ignitions, as any fires that start
would be difficult to contain.
Aside from the wildfire threat, downsloping from west/northwest
winds will result in a warm day across the region with afternoon
highs in the 70s to mid 80s. A cold front will move through the
region tonight, dropping temperatures into the mid 30s to 40s for
most areas. Mild weather is expected behind the front on Friday,
with highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Following our prolonged stretch of spring-like weather, more
seasonable temperatures will return this weekend with the arrival
of another cold front on Saturday. Moisture will remain negligible
behind tonight`s cold front, which will keep frontal passage
rain-free. Much of Central Texas will see highs in the low to mid
70s ahead of the front on Saturday, but by Sunday, it will feel
much cooler across the entire region. Afternoon temperatures will
only warm into the upper 50s to low 60s both Sunday and Monday. A
light freeze is expected in our rural western and northern zones
Saturday night and Sunday, with lows in the mid to upper 30s
elsewhere.
Southerly winds will return late Monday or Tuesday, resulting in a
rather rapid warm up heading into the middle of next week with
afternoon temperatures returning to the 70s and 80s. Tuesday and
Wednesday are shaping up to be warm, breezy, and dry, which should
allow wildfire concerns to re-emerge towards the end of the
current forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
West-northwest winds behind a dryline will veer to the north-
northeast tonight as a trailing cold front pushes through North &
Central Texas, and north to northeast winds will continue through
Friday morning. Winds will further veer to the east Friday
afternoon, and east winds of 5 to 10 kt will persist Friday night
until a stronger cold front pushes through Saturday morning. A
scattered to broken low cloud layer from 030 to 050 may form on
Friday, but conditions are expected to remain VFR.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 66 48 65 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 46 69 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 41 64 47 62 / 0 10 10 10
Denton 38 65 41 63 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 40 65 44 64 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 44 68 49 65 / 0 10 0 0
Terrell 42 68 48 67 / 0 10 0 0
Corsicana 47 73 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 48 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 39 68 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
