Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
958
FXUS64 KFWD 080615
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
115 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and mostly rain-free weather returns for the majority of
this week with heat index values near 100 degrees each
afternoon.
- Isolated rain showers are possible in parts of Central and East
Texas this afternoon with coverage of around 10%.
- Chances for scattered showers and storms will resume from late
Thursday into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
Following a weekend of active weather, much more tranquil weather
is in store to begin the workweek as mid-level ridging resumes in
the wake of an ejecting upper low. Stout southerly low-level flow
will contribute to a widespread low stratus intrusion this
morning with cloud cover around through the first half of the day
before gradual clearing takes place heading into the afternoon.
While fairly strong subsidence through the mid and upper levels
will be present, sufficient low-level moisture and daytime
destabilization will allow isolated showers to percolate across
parts of Central and East Texas from late morning into the
afternoon with precipitation coverage of about 10% or less. We`ll
include mentions of rain showers roughly east of I-35 and south
of I-20 through this time period, although most areas are expected
to remain dry today. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will make it a rather muggy afternoon
with heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to around 102.
As the upper ridge axis becomes centered overhead on Tuesday,
precipitation chances will be lower, and none will be mentioned in
the public forecast at this time. Temperatures are likely to be a
few degrees higher than today, with readings mostly in the mid
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
The midweek period looks seasonably hot and rain-free as a 590 dam
ridge axis remains anchored over the Southern Plains. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values
around 100F. By late Thursday, medium-range guidance is suggesting
that a weak frontal boundary will sag towards North Texas
associated with a northern stream trough and low pressure system.
This boundary could serve to initiate convection in Oklahoma
which may attempt to build towards North Texas Thursday night or
Friday. Slightly deeper Central CONUS troughing may act to erode
the ridge axis further as we head into the weekend, and this may
allow the front to sag a bit farther south into North Texas. This
would offer higher convective chances over the weekend, and the
current forecast will indicate PoPs of about 20-30% from late
Saturday into Sunday. Should this scenario materialize,
temperatures would also be knocked down by a few degrees due to
increased cloud cover and the presence of precipitation through
the peak heating hours.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
MVFR cigs at 1-2 kft have overspread all TAF sites as of 05z and
will remain in place through much of the morning. Expect cig
heights to lift above 2 kft around or after 13z before becoming
VFR by midday. Isolated rain showers are possible mainly in
Central and East Texas this afternoon, but will not include a
mention at any TAF site for now. VCSH may be necessary at Waco in
a later update. Another round of low stratus is expected on
Tuesday morning, although the intrusion should be more brief than
this morning. A south wind at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts up
to 25 kts will prevail through the entire forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 76 91 76 / 70 0 10 0
Waco 91 77 90 74 / 10 0 10 0
Paris 86 74 90 75 / 70 10 10 0
Denton 90 77 92 76 / 70 0 0 0
McKinney 88 77 91 76 / 70 0 10 0
Dallas 90 77 92 76 / 70 0 10 0
Terrell 88 77 90 74 / 60 0 10 0
Corsicana 89 77 90 74 / 30 0 10 0
Temple 90 77 89 74 / 10 0 20 0
Mineral Wells 91 75 93 74 / 40 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
