Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
185
FXUS64 KFWD 232345
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
645 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through
the holiday weekend into next week. The severe weather threat
remains low overall, with locally heavy rainfall and lightning
the main recurring hazards.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Isolated storms capable of producing brief heavy rain and small
hail will continue to affect portions of Central Texas through
this evening before activity wanes with loss of heating.
Overnight, steadily dissipating convection currently located
between Midland and Lubbock will approach parts of North Texas,
but should fall apart rather quickly upon entering the forecast
area. Low PoPs of 20-30% will be retained roughly west of I-35 and
north of I-20. By early Sunday morning, a weak surface
trough/front will sag into North Texas, and a pooling of near-
surface moisture along this boundary could culminate in the
development of mist and fog. A mention of patchy fog has been
introduced to the gridded forecast with this evening`s update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
After a round of overnight and early morning convection, things
have been relatively quiet over the last several hours with the
exception of a few elevated showers/storms to the northwest. This
activity is diminishing quickly though and most areas should
remain dry into the evening. Some recovery behind the subsident
wake is occurring across our south and southeast counties as
evidenced by more pronounced mid level cloud cover and a small
cumulus field to the east. This will be the favored area for
additional showers/storms through the late afternoon and evening
where we`ll have some low PoPs, but an organized area of
convection is not expected at this time.
Persistent upper troughing and ample low and mid level moisture
will continue to support at least isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the region through tonight. We`ll also be
watching some convection out of West Texas overnight that may make
a run at our western counties, but we`re not expecting a repeat
of last night. PoPs will generally remain around 20% through the
overnight hours.
The upper trough axis will shift a bit eastward during the day
Sunday which would displace the better large scale forcing for
ascent to our east. Despite this, a broad weakness in the heights
aloft along with generally weak low and mid level flow will
support isolated to scattered convection along and east of I-35 on
Sunday. We`ll keep PoPs around 20% through the day Sunday. High
temperatures will top out in the mid 80s Sunday afternoon.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
With the upper trough just to our east by Sunday night and weak
shortwave ridging over North Texas, we`ll see an overall decrease
in convective activity through early Tuesday. The continued
exception will be across our far eastern counties where low level
moisture is best. We can`t rule out some scattered showers and
storms Monday and Tuesday east of I-35. Otherwise, the next
upstream disturbance will spread into Texas on Tuesday. We should
see thunderstorms develop across West Texas Tuesday evening and
spread east overnight with a pretty good coverage of showers and
storms across North Texas late Tuesday night and Wednesday. We`ll
have the high04est PoPs during this time with 60-80% coverage and
some low potential for a severe storm along with a continued heavy
rain threat. Rain chances will decrease through the end of next
week as the upper trough pulls away and ridging builds back in.
The pattern will remain progressive though and additional storm
chances will continue intermittently through the next 10 days.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Nearly calm winds are in place at all airports as of 23z, and
this trend will continue overnight with variable winds of less
than 5 kts. A weak surface trough will approach from the north by
sunrise causing a shift to light northerly winds, and pooled
moisture along this weak boundary may allow for the development
of patchy mist/fog roughly between 09-14z. A tempo group with
MVFR vis will continue to be advertised around this time window.
All overnight convective activity is expected to remain well west
of the TAF sites, with isolated storms on Sunday afternoon likely
remaining south of the airports. Following the dissipation of any
fog or low cigs tomorrow morning, VFR will prevail through the
rest of the daytime with a light north wind.
For Waco specifically, there is a small chance for the airport to
briefly be impacted by a nearby thunderstorm this evening.
However, with a low probability of occurrence due to limited
coverage, will address this with AMDs as necessary based on trends
with ongoing convection to the south/southeast of the airfield.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 84 68 84 / 0 10 10 20
Waco 67 82 67 83 / 20 20 10 20
Paris 65 80 65 79 / 10 20 20 50
Denton 65 82 66 83 / 0 10 10 10
McKinney 66 82 66 82 / 0 10 10 30
Dallas 69 84 69 85 / 0 10 10 20
Terrell 67 82 66 82 / 0 20 10 40
Corsicana 67 83 68 84 / 20 20 10 40
Temple 65 83 67 84 / 30 20 10 20
Mineral Wells 64 83 64 84 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dunn
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
