Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
280
FXUS64 KFWD 210600
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances of 20-30% will continue today with the
arrival of a weak cold front. A few thunderstorms may produce
strong downburst wind gusts and small hail this afternoon and
evening.
- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will
prevail through the remainder of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Ascent from a mid-level shortwave brought scattered showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the forecast area on Sunday, and
modest lift from this feature may continue to support isolated
precip through the early morning hours today. The synoptic scale
frontal boundary and surface trough axis remains northwest of the
forecast area this morning draped through the TX Panhandle and
southern Oklahoma, but they`ll make southward progress into North
Texas later today resulting in a subtle north/northeast wind
shift. There will be minimal temperature contrast across this
boundary however, and highs will still reach the 90s across the
entire area. Additional convective development is expected through
the peak heating hours as strong destabilization occurs, and
coverage should be maximized near the convergent surface trough
axis as well as any residual outflow boundaries still in place
from convection on Sunday evening. Activity will be scattered and
disorganized, but the thermodynamic environment will be supportive
of strong or marginally severe downburst wind gusts along with
small hail. PoPs of 20-30% will be broad-brushed across most of
the region, with any activity beginning to progress off to the
south by late this evening.
Drier northeasterly low-level flow will advect lower dewpoints
into the area on Tuesday as the surface moist axis pivots into
West Texas. This should keep convective chances confined mainly
southwest and west of the CWA, but low PoPs of 20% or less will be
carried roughly along/west of Highway 281 through Tuesday
afternoon. Along with the arrival of slightly drier air, a return
to mid-level ridging should keep most of the region subsident and
rain-free heading into the midweek period while above normal
temperatures persist.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Predominantly dry weather is forecast from midweek onward as
building heights aloft maintain above normal temperatures, while
large-scale subsidence limits rain chances. A reinforcing push of
dry air in east/northeast flow will maintain low dewpoints in the
50s and lower 60s, and this will result in less oppressive late
season heat with heat index values near or below ambient
temperatures. Highs will still be in the 90s for most of the area
through the extended forecast period, about 5-10 degrees above
normal for the first week of astronomical fall. Another breakdown
of the ridge axis and weak frontal intrusion could occur sometime
late this weekend or early next week which would be the next
mentionable opportunity for rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Shower and thunderstorm activity from Sunday evening has subsided
at the TAF sites with a mostly rain-free overnight and Monday
morning period expected. Following gusty and erratic winds from
nearby convective outflows earlier, winds have returned to light
east/southeasterly where they should remain into the morning.
Additional isolated convection is possible later this afternoon
and early evening as a trailing weak cold front moves into North
Texas, and a short window of VCTS will continue to be advertised.
This boundary will also result in a very gradual northeast wind
shift later today, while sustained wind speeds mainly remain light
around 4-8 kts. Any convection would dissipate with loss of
heating this evening, while a northeast wind prevails through the
end of the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 76 97 75 / 30 50 30 20
Waco 101 74 97 74 / 20 30 30 30
Paris 95 71 95 71 / 20 40 40 10
Denton 98 72 97 71 / 30 40 30 20
McKinney 97 71 95 70 / 30 50 30 20
Dallas 98 76 98 76 / 30 50 30 20
Terrell 95 74 97 72 / 20 40 40 20
Corsicana 95 76 96 73 / 10 20 40 30
Temple 97 74 98 72 / 10 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 95 70 98 68 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
