Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
001
FXUS64 KFWD 232019
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
219 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread travel impacts due to wintry precipitation are
expected to begin this evening across North Texas and Saturday
across Central Texas. Precipitation will end Sunday, but travel
impacts will linger into Monday and Tuesday.
- Strong winds along with ice on tree limbs and power lines could
cause sporadic power outages Saturday and Sunday.
- Life-threatening cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero
Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights will result in hypothermia
and frostbite if precautions are not taken.
- A long duration of below-freezing temperatures from tonight
through Tuesday will increase the risk of broken pipes and
water damage.
- Final preparations for the impending winter weather need to be
completed now!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
A major winter storm remains on track to impact North and Central
Texas beginning this evening and continuing through the weekend,
with impacts from the winter storm lingering into Monday and
Tuesday.
Latest surface observations show the Arctic cold front has pushed
southward into North Texas and is currently near a Bowie to
Sherman line. Temperatures have already fallen into the upper 30s
immediately behind the front, with the freezing line further north
from just north of Wichita Falls to north of Ardmore. The front
is anticipated to continue southward through North Texas this
afternoon/evening and into Central Texas tonight, with the
freezing line reaching DFW around 04-06Z and Temple/Killeen around
12Z tomorrow morning. Strong WAA aloft is underway across our
region ahead of a large upper low off the west coast of Baja
California, with radar showing widespread light to moderate rain
now across much of North and Central Texas.
As the Arctic front undercuts the ongoing rain this evening into
tomorrow, rain will change to freezing rain from north to south
with ice accumulations beginning fairly quickly on elevated
surfaces as temperatures continue to fall into the 20s tonight
into tomorrow. As the shallow cold air near the surface deepens
with time overnight into Saturday, freezing rain will transition
to sleet as the predominate precipitation type across North Texas.
For Central Texas, the cold air will remain more shallow with a
stronger warm nose aloft, so freezing rain is anticipated to be
the main precip type with sleet mixing in occasionally. CAMs such
as the HRRR also indicate a few thunderstorms could develop at
times within the broad precipitation shield, especially tonight
into Saturday morning, which could lead to thundersleet (TSIP) or
thunder-freezing rain (TSFZRA) and enhance precipitation rates.
Models indicate there will be somewhat of a lull in precipitation
on Saturday afternoon as the first upper wave exits the region,
but the main upper low will eject eastward quickly on its heels
and bring more widespread, heavy precipitation Saturday evening
through Saturday night. Despite temperatures falling into the
10s, sleet looks to be the main precip type across North Texas
during this timeframe with freezing rain across Central Texas due
to a strong warm nose aloft. A few thunderstorms also appear
likely which would lead to periods of heavy sleet/freezing rain.
As the main upper wave shifts over and east of us Sunday morning,
this should finally cool the warm nose aloft for a transition to
snow across North Texas before precipitation quickly ends across
the entire area from west to east Sunday afternoon.
Latest storm total ice, sleet and snow accumulations remain
similar to previous forecasts. Combined sleet/snow totals around
1 inch are expected in Central Texas, with 1 to 5 inch amounts in
North Texas. Ice amounts around 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected for
most of our area, although isolated 3/4 inch ice amounts are
possible in our East Texas counties. Given these higher ice
amounts in East Texas, along with the gusty north winds
anticipated Saturday/Sunday, and our neighbors changing hazards
to an Ice Storm Warning, have issued a small Ice Storm Warning for
our southeast counties to match with SHV/HGX. Despite the hazard
name change, our messaging and impacts remain the same for these
counties with hazardous travel and scattered power outages
anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Although all precipitation will end on Sunday, impacts from the
ice/sleet/snow will continue Monday into Tuesday as temperatures
remain well below freezing. Guidance continues to appear too warm
for lows both Monday and Tuesday mornings given the expected icy
ground, and have gone closer to the NBM 25th percentile numbers
with lows mainly in the single digits to near zero. Wind chills
will make it feel even colder with -5 to -15 wind chills expected
Monday morning and -5 to 5 Tuesday morning. Will likely have to
extend the Extreme Cold Warning through Monday night/Tuesday
morning in future updates. Temps look to finally warm above
freezing by Tuesday afternoon with highs in the mid 30s to mid
40s. This will end a roughly 80-90 hour period of below freezing
temperatures across North and Central Texas. However, no big
warmup is anticipated with cold dry weather continuing Wednesday
and Thursday with highs only in the 40s and lows in the 20s. 12Z
models indicate another potential winter weather maker next
weekend, but we`ll look more into that once we get through this
first one.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
No major changes to the latest aviation forecast with conditions
expected to continue to deteriorate through the late evening and
overnight.
For the rest of this afternoon, IFR will generally prevail with
cigs lowering into the evening. Rain will be the dominant precip
type through the afternoon and it`s not entirely out of the
question to see -TSRA intermittently, but we`ll hold off on any
TEMPO as lightning strikes will be pretty sporadic. Cold air will
continue to spill south this evening with the freezing line
expected to make it into the Metroplex in the 8-11 pm timeframe.
We`ll show a switch over to -FZRA at 3Z at DFW. There may be some
sleet pellets that mix in with rain during this time...but the
switch to mainly sleet will likely hold off until overnight.
Sleet should prevail early Saturday morning and intermittently
through the day, although there may be breaks in the precip
through Saturday afternoon before additional wintry weather
spreads in Saturday night.
Winds will gradually become more northerly through this evening
and intermittent gusts to 25 kt are expected during the overnight
hours.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1241 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 23 28 14 22 / 100 100 100 30
Waco 27 31 17 23 / 100 100 100 20
Paris 20 23 14 20 / 100 100 100 40
Denton 17 24 9 22 / 100 100 100 30
McKinney 22 26 13 21 / 100 100 100 30
Dallas 24 29 15 22 / 100 100 100 30
Terrell 22 28 15 22 / 100 100 100 30
Corsicana 27 31 20 25 / 100 100 100 30
Temple 27 32 17 27 / 100 90 100 20
Mineral Wells 18 23 10 22 / 100 100 100 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141.
Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Ice Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ122-135-147-148-162.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
TXZ142>146-156>161-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Dunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
