Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
137
FXUS64 KFWD 131912
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
212 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop across parts of
North Texas late this afternoon and evening, mainly west of
I-35. A few storms could become severe, capable of producing
large hail and damaging wind gusts.
- An active pattern will persist all week with storm chances and
potential for strong to severe storms both Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- A strong cold front this weekend is expected to bring much
cooler temperatures and dry weather for late weekend into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Weak ridging aloft between the departing shortwave and the next
western CONUS trough will maintain quieter conditions across much
of Central Texas today, but a more favorable setup for isolated
convection may evolve across parts of North Texas this afternoon
and evening. Morning low clouds are already scattering across
portions of western North Texas, and this increased insolation
ahead of the dryline should allow for greater destabilization
through the afternoon. At the same time, a subtle disturbance
lifting out of northern Mexico will approach the dryline and
provide a modest increase in ascent during peak heating. This
combination should be enough to support isolated thunderstorm
development late this afternoon and evening, with the best chances
focused across our western North Texas counties including areas
near the Big Country. PoPs have been increased across North Texas
after 7 PM to account for this evolving signal. If storms develop
and mature, steep lapse rates, moderate instability, and 40+ kt of
deep-layer shear will support a few supercells capable of large
hail and damaging wind gusts.
The main source of uncertainty will be storm coverage and eastward
persistence tonight. While confidence has increased that at least
isolated storms could develop near the dryline, it is still less
certain how far east activity will survive as it encounters a
more weakly forced and stable environment deeper into eastern
North Texas. A low chance remains that one or two storms could
persist into the I-35 corridor this evening, and if that occurs,
an isolated strong storm would remain possible there as well.
Otherwise, activity should remain scattered with most locations
staying dry. Tuesday will then feature another warm and breezy day
with the next, more organized round of storm chances holding off
until later in the day and especially at night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
The active pattern will take shape in earnest Tuesday night
through Wednesday as the main upper trough lifts into the Plains
and strengthens southwesterly flow aloft over the Southern Plains.
Scattered storms developing along the dryline to our west Tuesday
afternoon and evening may spread into our western counties
Tuesday night, although confidence in coverage remains tempered by
a stout cap and uncertainty in how long storms can survive as
they move east. Even so, the environment would support a few
strong to severe storms with large hail as the primary hazard,
along with damaging winds and a low-end tornado risk if any
discrete cells can persist into the richer low-level moisture.
Wednesday still appears to offer the better chance for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area as
the trough axis shifts overhead and the dryline presses farther
east. The main source of uncertainty will be any morning
convection arriving from the west, as this could limit daytime
destabilization and reduce the coverage and intensity of storms
later in the day. If enough recovery occurs, moderate instability
and strong deep-layer shear would again support organized
convection capable of large hail and damaging winds, with the
tornado threat increasing somewhat late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening as low-level flow strengthens. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible, though the greater concern at this
time appears to be localized swaths of heavier rain rather than a
widespread flooding setup.
A relative lull in precipitation is expected Thursday as the
midweek trough departs and weak ridging builds overhead. Attention
then turns to the end of the week as another upper trough
approaches from the west. Friday currently looks warm and more
capped, which may limit convective development across much of the
region despite a favored thermodynamic and kinematic environment
on paper. As a result, daytime storm chances may end up even lower
than the blended guidance would suggest.
Better rain chances should arrive Friday night into Saturday as a
strong cold front pushes south through the region. Current
indications suggest the front will move through the Metroplex
around daybreak Saturday before clearing Central Texas by the
afternoon. While showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the boundary, the severe weather potential appears
limited for now as instability weakens with time. In the wake of
the front, a much cooler and drier air mass will settle into the
region for the latter half of the weekend with lows dropping into
the 40s/50s and highs held into the upper 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
VFR conditions have returned across the Metroplex and Waco this
afternoon as morning stratus continues to lift and scatter. South
winds around 15 to 20 knots will persist through the period, with
occasional higher gusts possible this afternoon. The main
aviation concern today will be the convective potential this
evening across North Texas as isolated storms develop near the
dryline and attempt to move east. Given the rapid destabilization
occurring amid clearing skies and the subtle disturbance lifting
out of northern Mexico, a mention of VCTS/TSRA has been introduced
for the D10 terminals. Any storm that reaches a terminal could
produce brief visibility reductions, gusty winds, and hail.
Storm chances should diminish overnight with a return of low
clouds. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop around 06-07Z and
persist into Tuesday morning, with bases generally near 1500 ft
before gradually lifting by late morning into early afternoon. No
thunder mention was included at KACT where convective chances
remain too low to justify inclusion at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 83 68 81 / 30 20 40 60
Waco 68 80 66 80 / 10 10 20 40
Paris 67 80 66 79 / 20 10 20 50
Denton 66 82 65 79 / 30 30 50 70
McKinney 68 82 67 79 / 20 10 40 60
Dallas 68 82 68 81 / 20 20 30 60
Terrell 68 83 67 82 / 20 10 20 50
Corsicana 69 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 40
Temple 68 83 67 83 / 10 10 20 40
Mineral Wells 67 83 64 79 / 30 40 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
