Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
710
FXUS64 KFWD 052008
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
308 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Parts of North Texas are now in a Heat Advisory with heat index
values up to 106 this afternoon. The Heat Advisory will expand
on Sunday as more locations experience heat index values of
105-108.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected across
much of North and Central Texas through next week.
- Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will be across the Brazos
Valley each afternoon and evening this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
North and Central Texas are now beneath a building mid-level
ridge that spans across from the northern to the southern Plains.
This will keep most locations hot and rain-free through the
remainder of the weekend.
For the rest of today, temperatures will climb into the upper 90s
to around 103 across much of North Texas, while Central Texas
will remain a few degrees cooler due to lingering moisture and
slightly higher cloud cover. Afternoon mixing will keep much of
the region below Heat Advisory criteria. The exception is across
our far northeastern counties, where a Heat Advisory is now in
effect. With the ridge continuing to expand tomorrow, widespread
triple digit heat can be expected across North Texas with upper
90s elsewhere. Deeper moisture across the eastern half of North
Texas will have a hard time mixing out tomorrow afternoon, driving
heat index values between 102-107 degrees. Due to the widespread
nature of 105+ heat index values along and east of US-287 in
North Texas, a Heat Advisory will go into effect noon Sunday and
persist through at least 7pm.
A subtle shortwave is now moving east out of southern Louisiana
and is expected to mainly remain south of our region. Scattered
showers have developed to our southeast and will continue to move
west through the rest of the afternoon. There will be a 20-40%
chance of showers and storms across the Brazos Valley as this
activity progresses east. The shortwave will exit the region
tonight, however, a few additional showers and storms cannot be
ruled out Sunday afternoon. Tomorrow`s activity will largely be
driven by an abundance of moisture and warm temperatures with no
concentrated forcing for ascent. Therefore, rain chances will
remain lower than today and confined to Central Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
The ridge will continue to expand next week, shutting off
precipitation chances across the region. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal with nearly the entire region between
99-102 degrees. Additionally, thanks to slightly better moisture,
widespread heat index values between 105-110 degrees can be
expected. Additional heat headlines are likely to persist through
much of next week.
The persistent hot and dry weather will continue to promote fire
starts given an ignition source. Afternoon relative humidity will
range from the upper 20% to around 40%, with the lower readings
expected along and west of I-35. Winds are expected to remain
below 10 mph, which will help mitigate the risk for rapid fire
spread.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Concerns...None in the terminals. A few iso TSRA/SHRA east and
southeast of D10.
Southerly winds and VFR conditions are ongoing across North and
Central Texas TAF sites thanks a ridge of high pressure to our
north. Scattered showers and storms have developed across East
Texas and are slowly migrating west/southwest. This activity will
continue to impact the CYP arrivals, however, the expectation is
for the precipitation to remain southwest of the D10 airspace. By
this evening, all showers and storms will dissipate. No additional
precipitation is expected through the rest of this forecast cycle.
Winds will continue to be southerly and below 10 kts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 101 / 0 10 0 0
Waco 76 98 76 99 / 0 20 0 0
Paris 76 100 76 99 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 77 101 76 101 / 0 10 0 0
McKinney 77 99 76 100 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 80 101 80 102 / 0 10 0 0
Terrell 76 100 75 100 / 0 10 0 0
Corsicana 75 98 76 98 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 75 98 74 99 / 0 30 0 10
Mineral Wells 74 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ093>093-
102>104-118>123-133>135-146.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ094-095-105>107.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
