Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
744
FXUS64 KFWD 251805
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread hazardous travel impacts due to ice, sleet and snow
on roads will continue today. Travel impacts will continue into
Monday and Tuesday due to continued below-freezing temperatures.
- Strong winds along with ice on trees and power lines could
cause sporadic power outages today and tonight.
- Life-threatening cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero at
times through Tuesday morning will result in hypothermia and
frostbite if precautions are not taken.
- A long duration of below-freezing temperatures will continue
through Tuesday morning which will increase the risk of broken
pipes and water damage.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Our weekend winter storm is winding down as the bulk of
precipitation has now moved well east of our area, and the Winter
Storm Warning and Ice Storm Warning will be allowed to expire as
scheduled at noon. Even with the warnings expiring, hazardous
road conditions will continue through Monday and Tuesday as
temperatures remain below freezing.
For today, the low level atmosphere remains very cold and
saturated per the 12Z FWD sounding, with a weakly unstable
boundary layer beneath a strong temperature inversion aloft. This
setup is allowing for the development of low level HCRs/bands of
light snow showers and flurries across North and Central Texas
which can be seen on radar. Some lake-effect/lake-enhanced snow
is also likely occurring downwind of the still warm lakes across
our area. However, little or no additional accumulation is
expected from this activity. Today looks to be the coldest day of
the winter so far with highs only in the mid 10s north to mid 20s
south. Daily record cold maximum temperatures could be tied or
broken at both DFW (23 degrees set in 1940) and Waco (24 degrees
set in 1940) today.
This afternoon into early evening, a trailing shortwave trough
axis will move across North Texas and bring another round of
light snow to areas generally along and north of I-20. This
activity can currently be seen on regional radars across West
Texas heading eastward. 12Z models and CAMs are not handling this
afternoon activity well except for the NAM which was leaned
towards for today. Light snow accumulations appear possible this
afternoon, especially across our northwest counties which could
see up to one half inch. Given the already ice/sleet/snow covered
ground, any snow accumulations will have little additional impact,
and all light snow will end by early this evening.
Tonight looks to be the coldest night across North and Central
Texas since at least January 2024, and possibly since December
2022 or February 2021. The combination of continued gusty north
winds, Arctic airmass in place, widespread thick ice/sleet/snow
cover on the ground, and gradually clearing skies should allow
temperatures to drop into the single digits and teens. Parts of
our northwest counties could even fall below zero tonight if
clouds can clear out sufficiently. Have undercut NBM lows for
tonight given the ice/sleet/snow cover on the ground. Daily
record low temperatures will likely be tied or broken at both
DFW (12 degrees set in 1904) and Waco (14 degrees set in 1940).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Mostly sunny skies, lighter winds and warmer temperatures in the
20s/low 30s on Monday will allow for some melting of the
ice/sleet/snow cover on the ground/roads during the day. However,
any melting will refreeze Monday night into Tuesday morning with
another very cold night in the single digits and 10s expected.
Once again, undercut the NBM lows a couple degrees given the ice
on the ground and surface high pressure settling over Central
Texas. Daily record low temperatures could also be tied or broken
once again at both DFW (12 in 1963) and Waco (14 in 1940).
Full sunshine and southwest winds on the north side of the
surface high will allow for a more substantial warmup and
significant melting of the ice/sleet/snow on Tuesday with highs
reaching the mid 30s to mid 40s. Continued cold conditions are
anticipated for the rest of the week thanks to deep northerly flow
across the Plains and the entrenched Arctic airmass being slow to
modify, with lows in the 10s/20s and highs in the 30s/40s. Latest
GFS/ECMWF show another system passing across South Texas on Friday
which could bring some light rain or even light snow to Central
Texas, but models continue to flip-flop on this potential and will
keep pops low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
An area of flurries/light snow will move into DFW Metroplex TAF
sites between 21Z and 03Z. A band of lake effect snow will
continue to bring flurries/light snow to DAL until the more
widespread light snow moves in. MVFR cigs currently at all TAF
sites should clear out sometime between 00Z and 03Z. Have chosen
to end prevailing MVFR for Metroplex TAF sites at 00Z due to the
more scattered nature of cigs after this point. Winds will
continue to be NNW (330-350) at 10-15 kts for the duration of this
forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 21 8 29 10 / 40 20 0 0
Waco 24 11 29 11 / 10 10 0 0
Paris 20 7 28 7 / 30 10 0 0
Denton 19 2 28 7 / 40 20 0 0
McKinney 20 5 28 8 / 40 20 0 0
Dallas 22 10 29 11 / 40 20 0 0
Terrell 22 8 29 9 / 20 20 0 0
Corsicana 25 13 31 11 / 20 10 0 0
Temple 26 12 31 13 / 10 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 19 2 30 7 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
