Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
891
FXUS64 KFWD 101847
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
147 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wildfire threat will gradually increase this week in tandem with
the return of gusty south winds and continued low afternoon
humidity.
- Heat indices will gradually increase across most of North Texas
through the week, requiring Heat Advisories for parts of the
area during the afternoons and early evenings.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
North Texas will remain under a subtle col region early this
week, lodged between an upper high center over the Rockies and
another center over the North Central Gulf. This will promote a
continuation of very warm daytime temperatures, with highs
topping out in the lower 100s across most of the northern half of
the forecast area. A subtle increase in dew points will result in
heat indices peaking in the 105-108 degree range Tuesday
afternoon, mainly in areas north of I-20. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for most of this area Tuesday afternoon, and additional
advisories will likely be required later in the week.
Development of the cumulus cloud field across much of the area has
been more restrained than in previous days, and the expectation
for isolated convection later this afternoon is quite low. As a
result, PoPs have been omitted across the entire area for today.
Sea breeze-related activity over Southeast Texas may potentially
take a run at our far southeast counties later this afternoon, but
confidence in this development is low enough to warrant omission
of PoPs here as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Only subtle changes in the large scale pattern are expected
through the weekend, as the mean ridge slides east of North Texas
by the end of the period. Day to day high temperatures will vary
only slightly, with max readings consistently exceeding 100 across
most of the area. Forcing mechanisms will be virtually non-
existent through the period, and rainfall potential will
essentially be nil through next Monday. One growing concern will
be the potential for new fire starts from mid week onward, owing
to a decrease in afternoon relative humidities and an uptick in
gusty winds. These increased fire weather parameters are mapping
on a region with fuels which are steadily curing due to the
protracted absence of widespread rainfall. Elevated fire concerns
are likely to be a growing problem through the remainder of the
month, and on into September, given the likelihood of continued
rainfall deficits and positive temperature anomalies.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions will prevail areawide through 00z Wednesday. Unlike
the past couple of days, upper level ridging and an absence of
surface forcing should largely preclude any convective development
this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. With that said, isolated
sea breeze-related shower or thunderstorm activity may work
inland from Southeast Texas into areas well southest of D10, after
21z. Lee troughing over eastern Colorado and New Mexico should
facilitate a persistent southerly wind flow, at speeds averaging
7-12 knots through Tuesday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 81 101 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 76 100 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 76 97 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 100 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 101 81 102 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 76 99 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 99 78 100 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 75 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-
101>107-116>121-133-134.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
