Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
065
FXUS64 KFWD 142330
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be elevated fire weather concerns again Friday
afternoon owing to dry and windy conditions.
- Low rain chances (15-30%) return to portions of East and Central
Texas mid-week next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
In the wake of the cold front that swept through the region this
morning, windy north winds have developed across North and Central
Texas. Most will see sustained winds ~20 mph, with gusts in the
30-40 mph range through 4 PM, just short of Wind Advisory criteria.
There will also be elevated fire weather concerns today, as
relative humidities in the 25-35% range will overlap these gusty
winds. As the evening progresses with the loss of diurnally driven
PBL mixing, north winds will weaken greatly, to the 5-10 mph
range within 2-3 hours after sunset. CAA, low humidity and clear
skies will all help temperatures drop some 30 degrees by tomorrow
morning, with lows ranging from the upper-20s to the lower-30s.
On Thursday, the surface ridge axis will be situated along the
I-35 corridor. As such, there will be a bifurcation in afternoon
highs with mid-50s expected in the northwest flow regime across
Eastern Texas, and near 70 degrees possible west of the I-35
corridor where surface winds will back and become southwesterly by
the afternoon. With little moisture or lift to be seen, expect
sunny skies all day tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
By Thursday night, surface winds across the region all become
southerly/southwesterly. This will help keep overnight lows
slightly above average, ranging from the upper-30s to the mid-40s.
By Friday morning, another cold front is expected to dive south
across the region, associated with an amplifying upper-level
trough over the Mississippi River Valley. Just like today, with
tropospheric moisture and synoptic forcing for ascent remaining
well to the north and east of the area, another dry frontal
passage is expected. Currently, north winds on Friday behind the
front are not expected to be as strong as today, likely sustained
at 15-20 mph, gusting 25-30 mph. However, the incoming airmass
will be substantially drier, with RH values bottoming out into the
15-25% range by Friday afternoon. This will result in another day
of elevated fire weather concerns despite the cool temperatures
(highs in the upper 50s and 60s).
The Friday front will usher in a few days of near to slightly
below normal temperatures, as highs this weekend will largely
remain in the 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s. The
coldest morning will be Sunday morning, with a widespread freeze
expect as temperatures area-wide drop into the mid and upper-20s.
Model solutions diverge somewhat on the weather pattern next week,
as the exact evolution of the longwave trough over the Eastern
CONUS becomes more uncertain. Some model solutions suggest a weak
disturbance developing across the southern Mississippi River
Valley in response to strong divergence aloft in the right
entrance region of a jet streak over the southeastern US. In this
scenario, enough moisture and lift may be present for scattered
rain showers to develop across portions of Central and East Texas,
especially south of I-20 and east of the I-35 corridor. Other
model solutions maintain confluent flow in the upper-levels over
the Southern Plains, keeping the potential mid-week storm system
further to the east. As such, will maintain low rain chances
(15-30%) across portions of Central and Eastern Texas for
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026
Strong north winds behind today`s cold front have begun to subside
as the axis of a surface ridge approaches from the northwest.
Velocities should drop to around 10kt by 03Z or shortly
thereafter. Winds will become light southwest Thursday morning as
the ridge axis moves southeastward across Central Texas, with
speeds increasing to 10-15kt Thursday afternoon. South to
southwest winds will continue Thursday night ahead of another cold
front slated to arrive Friday morning. FROPA with the Friday cold
front will be beyond this TAF period. Otherwise, VFR will prevail
area-wide.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 33 60 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 31 61 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 26 53 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 26 61 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 28 58 40 59 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 33 60 46 61 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 28 58 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 33 60 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 32 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 30 67 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
