Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
774
FXUS64 KFWD 281743
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1243 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered severe storms are expected along a sagging cold front
late this afternoon and evening. Very large hail (>3-3.5") and
damaging winds will be the main threats although a tornado or
two will also be possible.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
and Friday with some potential for heavy rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
No major changes this morning other than the severe thunderstorm
watch issued for parts of our northwest and Red River counties.
Isolated severe storms have developed in a region of focused low
level warm moist advection within a broad area of weak large scale
forcing for ascent. This activity will tend to spread northeast
with time. More significant surface based severe thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a sagging cold front this afternoon
and evening from the Red River southward. Westward extent of this
convection is a little uncertain at this time, but the I-35
corridor is well within the threat area. No major changes to
severe mode is needed that this time.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Earlier convection across the region has died off with nocturnal
cooling and increasing inhibition leaving behind a warm and humid
night with passing high cloud cover. At the surface, a complex
pattern of boundaries will be the primary focus for additional
convection possibly as early as this morning, but more likely
Tuesday afternoon and evening. An area of low pressure is
currently spreading into the Great Lakes region with a trailing
cold front draped back to the southwest across southeast Oklahoma
and along the Red River. Meanwhile, a dryline extends from a weak
area of low pressure near Wichita Falls southwest toward San
Angelo. Dewpoints are in the mid 70s across much of North Texas
while they`re in the 20s and 30s behind the dryline. The dryline
will slowly retreat northwestward overnight tied to this weak area
of low pressure that will remain persistent near Wichita Falls.
This sets up a loosely organized triple point area across
northwest Texas and will become a focus for strong low level warm
moist advection during the overnight hours into early Tuesday
morning. Water vapor imagery shows an upstream shortwave trough
moving out of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. Weak
synoptic forcing for ascent associated with this feature and its
trailing trough axis along with the strong focused low level warm
advection may be sufficient to fire off a few elevated early
morning storms across our northwest counties. With MUCAPE in
excess of 2000 J/kg, any storms that can get going prior to
sunrise would be capable of large hail. Additionally, if coverage
is greater than currently forecast (approx 20% as of now), or if
we get any deviant storm motions, then we`ll have to watch for a
few early morning surface based storms which would be capable of
all modes of severe weather. This scenario seems a little less
likely, but worth monitoring over the next few hours. We`ll
maintain 20% PoPs late overnight into early Tuesday morning for
this potential.
Of greater concern will be later this afternoon and evening when
the aforementioned shortwave spreads into the Plains and the
frontal boundary starts to sag southward into North Texas. It`s a
little uncertain how convection evolves through the afternoon
with any morning activity possibly disrupting development near the
Red River by early afternoon. Nonetheless, there is a good
probability of supercells developing during peak heating along and
ahead of this southward moving boundary from the Metroplex
northeast into the late evening hours. The airmass ahead of the
front will feature dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, yielding
MLCAPE of 4000-4500 J/kg with long straight hodographs supportive
of instances of very large hail (>3-3.5") and damaging winds. While
there will certainly be a tornado potential given the amount of
instability we`ll be working with and the proximity of the frontal
boundary, low level winds are veered early in the event which will
tend to limit a greater overall threat. That being said, this
environment will favor splitting supercells with right movers
likely enhancing tornado potential during the early evening hours
when low level winds strengthen. Coverage of storms will be
highest across the eastern half of the CWA with areas from the
Metroplex northeast having the greatest threat for severe weather.
Also of concern through the evening will be the potential for
instances of flash flooding given PW values approaching 1.9 inches
and at least some potential for training convection along the
frontal boundary. Convection will continue into the late evening
hours before encountering decreasing instability and eventually
waning during the early morning hours on Wednesday.
The frontal boundary will be draped across our southern counties
during the day Wednesday with zonal flow aloft and cooler air to
the north of the boundary. Highs will be in the low 70s to the
north of the boundary while a moist airmass will remain in place
across our far southern counties. While forcing for ascent will
remain weak during this time, low level warm advection atop a
slightly cooler surface airmass should result in at least some
scattered showers and storms across our far southern counties on
Wednesday. We`ll have 20-30% PoPs to account for this.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
The frontal boundary will continue to serve as a focus for
additional development of showers and a few storms primarily
across our southern counties on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough will dig out of the
eastern Pacific and across northwest Mexico by early Thursday.
Strong forcing for ascent will begin to spread across West Texas
during the day Thursday and into North Texas by Thursday night.
We should see a gradual uptick in the coverage of showers and a
few thunderstorms across the region during this time. With a
moisture rich atmosphere featuring PWs approaching 1.8 inches
again late Thursday night, periods of heavy rainfall will be
possible. The heaviest rainfall and greatest coverage of
showers/storms will be on Friday as the upper disturbance passes
over North Texas. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
will be possible with most of North and Central Texas picking up
some beneficial rain amounts. North winds, overcast skies, and
periods of rain will lead to a cool day on Friday with highs in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rainfall should taper off late Friday
night into Saturday as the upper trough moves away. North winds
will persist into Saturday with the weekend looking dry. Highs on
Saturday will be in the lower 70s and upper 70s for Sunday.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Concerns...Thunderstorms including the potential for severe
weather later this afternoon into the evening. Low ceilings
return overnight.
Ceilings should continue to lift to VFR early this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are still expected to develop near and along the
front as it moves through the area. Not a lot of changes were
made to the timing of the storms impacting the DFW Metroplex
sites, with VCTS starting at 22Z and a TEMPO of TSRA between
23-01Z this evening. While some isolated activity may develop
before the broken line of storms, confidence in timing and
coverage is too low to include it in the TAF. In addition to the
lightning threat, some of the storms will be capable of producing
very large hail (greater than baseball size) and damaging winds.
This activity should be south of D10 after 03Z with northerly
winds expected through the night. While the potential for TS to
impact Waco is lower, we can`t rule out some VCTS between 03-06Z.
Another round of MVFR ceilings will develop overnight into much
of the day Wednesday. We could also see some light precipitation
impacting some of the sites during the day Wednesday.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Spotter activation is likely across North Texas on Tuesday
afternoon and evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 60 71 61 / 60 60 20 20
Waco 92 66 74 63 / 20 30 50 40
Paris 81 58 71 57 / 70 60 30 20
Denton 88 56 69 57 / 60 40 10 20
McKinney 87 58 70 60 / 70 50 20 20
Dallas 90 61 73 62 / 60 60 20 20
Terrell 87 62 72 61 / 60 70 30 30
Corsicana 91 66 76 64 / 40 60 50 40
Temple 92 68 78 63 / 10 20 50 40
Mineral Wells 93 57 70 57 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
