Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
467
FXUS64 KFWD 120014
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
714 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There will be an elevated threat for grass fires each afternoon
this week. Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected on
Friday along and west of Interstate 35 with strong west winds,
increasingly dry vegetation, and humidity between 10 to 15%.
- There is a threat for a few severe storms along and east of
Interstate 35 late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An active period can be expected through tomorrow evening, mainly
for an elevated to near-critical fire weather threat. This in
large part will be the result of above normal warmth, occasionally
gusty winds, and dry conditions with relative humidity values
falling between 10-20%. Fine fuels will continue to dry out as
well, further increasing the potential for a fire weather threat.
A sharpening dry line will push east, along which there is a low
to moderate chance for the development of showers and
thunderstorms starting as early as 3 PM tomorrow afternoon.
Conditions will be favorable for at least one or two strong to
severe thunderstorms, mainly for large hail and damaging winds.
The only uncertainty will be the strength of the cap, which may
keep thunderstorm development further to our east. We will
continue to assess the need for a Wind Advisory and/or fire
weather products this evening and overnight.
Reeves
Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/
Warm and breezy conditions are expected the remainder of the day,
with breezy south winds near 10-20 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph.
Afternoon highs will range from the mid to upper 70s east of the
I-35 corridor to low to mid 80s along and west of I-35. Very low
humidity near 10-20% combined with the breezy winds and above
normal temperatures will result in an elevated fire weather
threat this afternoon. This will only mark the beginning of an
extended period of fire weather concerns that will continue much
of this week.
A potent shortwave will traverse the Desert Southwest tonight into
Wednesday morning. A surface low will deepen in response and will
eject into the TX/OK panhandles Wednesday morning as its upper
level counterpart nears the NM/TX border. As the shortwave
approaches from the west, low-level moisture will be transported
inland ahead of its arrival by strong southerly winds. This will
allow a dryline to sharpen across western portions of the forecast
area which will be ushered eastward by the shortwave as it moves
overhead.
Nearly the entire suite of CAMs has jumped on board regarding the
potential for convective development late Wednesday afternoon. As
a result, there is increasing confidence in the development of
isolated to scattered strong to severe storms along/near the I-35
corridor after ~4-5 pm tomorrow which will move east through the
evening. While there is still some bust potential due to the
presence of a cap, it appears lift should be sufficient to
overcome any inhibition. Steep lapse rates and strong deep layer
shear will support primarily a hail and damaging wind threat
along/east of I-35. The tornado threat will be low, but a tornado
or two can`t be entirely ruled out.
Behind the dryline Wednesday afternoon (west of I-35), very low
humidity near 10-25%, strong winds, and above normal temperatures
will once again combine to result in an elevated to critical fire
weather threat. While fuels are dry, they`re not quite dry enough
to warrant the issuance of a Red Flag Warning (though that`s
expected to change later this week). While we will continue to
reassess, Wednesday`s fire threat should be sufficiently covered
by a Grass Fire Danger Statement which will likely be issued
tonight. Additionally, strong west winds behind the dryline across
our far western zones may allow winds to briefly reach Wind
Advisory criteria in a handful of locations. Given this will be
brief and fairly borderline, we will hold off on issuing a Wind
Advisory for now and continue to reassess as new data comes in
this afternoon and evening.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/
Any lingering isolated thunderstorm activity will quickly shift to
the east Wednesday evening as a Pacific front pushes through the
entirety of our forecast area. A much drier airmass will settle
over North and Central Texas behind this boundary setting the
stage for a prolonged period of rain-free conditions, poor
overnight RH recovery, efficient drying of live and dormant fuels,
and elevated to critical fire weather conditions.
Westerly winds will shift back out of the south by midday Thursday
as a deep upper trough shifts over the Desert Southwest and
initiates rapid surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies
over eastern Colorado. Winds will initially be quite light on
Thursday with speeds generally less than 10mph. That will soon
change by Friday, as a 100-120kt 500mb jet spreads over the
Southern Plains and an impressive ~975-977mb surface low develops
over the Central Plains and shifts east across northern Kansas
toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Strong westerly
gradient winds will develop by midday Friday across much of North
and Central Texas behind an easterly-progressing Pacific front.
Any thunderstorm development should take place east of our
forecast area Friday afternoon. Sustained westerly winds near 30
mph are expected for most locations along and west of I-35. Deep
mixing to ~750-700mb will promote frequent wind gusts of 45-55 mph
mph starting late Friday morning and persisting through 7-8PM
Friday evening (30% chance for 60+ mph gusts northwest of the
Metroplex). Fuels will become increasingly dry toward the end of
the work week with forecasted ERC values approaching
climatological maxima for this time of year by Friday. Very strong
winds, relative humidity dropping below 15%, and abundant dry
10-hr and 100-hr fuels will support volatile and dangerous fire
weather conditions Friday afternoon and evening along and west of
the I-35 corridor. Please do your part in preventing sparks and
new grass fire attacks as these conditions will encourage rapid
wildfire growth/spread and wildfires resistant to mitigation
efforts!
Dry and pleasant weather is expected over the weekend as this
system exits to the east and and a secondary trough reinforces
north-northwest flow across the region. Expect high temperatures
in the 60s and 70s Saturday and Sunday. Elevated fire weather
conditions will carry into Saturday despite the lower temperatures
due to the extremely dry airmass overhead and occasionally gusty
winds. Low rain chances will not return to the forecast until
Tuesday-Wednesday next week. Worsening drought conditions will
only lead to increasingly dry fuels into next week, and a couple
more critical fire weather days may materialize in the Monday to
Wednesday timeframe.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Concerns...Low chance for MVFR, VCTS potential tomorrow afternoon.
VFR conditions can be expected across all TAF sites through most
of the period. The only exception will be through tomorrow morning
where increasing moisture near the surface may lead to the
development of MVFR ceilings. While these should remain well south
of the D10 TAF sites, Waco may see a few hours of lowered
ceilings. Overall there is a low to moderate chance (30-50%) for
Waco, and generally less than 20-30% for the D10 TAFs.
Our attention turns to a sharpening dry line feature that will
move across the region through the mid to late afternoon. Gusty
winds upwards of 25 to 30 knots will be possible along and behind
this, with a low to moderate chance (20-40%) for the development
of showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be
strong to severe, mainly for large hail and damaging winds. It
will be difficult to pinpoint where any thunderstorms develop, if
at all due to a strong cap that will be in place. Any convection
will push well to the east through the late afternoon and evening.
Reeves
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 84 55 85 60 / 0 20 10 0 0
Waco 56 85 55 86 61 / 0 20 5 0 0
Paris 54 78 50 79 58 / 0 30 20 0 0
Denton 54 82 50 84 57 / 0 20 5 0 0
McKinney 55 80 51 83 58 / 0 30 20 0 0
Dallas 58 84 55 85 62 / 0 20 10 0 0
Terrell 55 79 51 83 58 / 0 30 20 0 0
Corsicana 57 82 54 85 61 / 0 20 20 0 0
Temple 55 89 55 90 59 / 0 20 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 53 87 51 87 57 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
