Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
297
FXUS64 KFWD 092353
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot and mostly rain-free weather will prevail through
next week.
- The threat for more widespread grass fire activity increases by
the middle and latter part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Another hot afternoon is underway across North and Central Texas.
Similar to the last several days, temperatures will peak in the
upper 90s to around 102 degrees with maximum heat index values
generally between 100-105 degrees.
Our region remains wedged between two areas of high pressure, once
over the Four Corners region and another over Florida. With a
relative weakness in place over us, we`ll have another low chance
of isolated showers and storms this afternoon. Satellite
continues to show a wedge of moisture that extends from west to
east, generally along the I-20 and I-30 corridors. As daytime
heating continues, the development of a few storms will be
possible in the vicinity of those two interstate corridors.
Confidence in exact location remains low given there is no focused
forcing mechanism. Another area to monitor for isolated showers
and storms will be across the Brazos Valley, where sea-breeze
induced activity may migrate north through the afternoon and reach
our Central Texas counties.
Any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty
outflow winds given a fairly well-mixed lower atmosphere. The
threat for any severe storm remains low. As the sun begins to
set, expect rain chances to diminish, leaving behind dry
conditions throughout the region.
Tomorrow, expect continued hot weather with a another low
potential for some showers and storms. Compared to today, the
overall weather pattern remains unchanged, however, a weak
shortwave will come onshore during the day and inch closer to our
region by the afternoon. This may help generate additional
convection to our south with outflows pushing north into our
region. This could once again lead to a few showers and storms
across the Brazos Valley in the afternoon/evening hours, however,
this activity will dissipate closer to or shortly after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
A tranquil Monday night will give way to continued hot and mostly
dry conditions throughout the region. We`ll likely continue to
see a storm or two develop in the afternoon given a relative
weakness in the ridge over our region.
With most locations continuing to experience hot and precipitation-
free weather conditions, there will be an increasing risk for fire
starts by the middle of the week. Temperatures will remain in the
upper 90s to triple digits with afternoon relative humidity in the
mid 20% to lower 30%. In addition, wind speeds will be on an
upward trend, peaking Thursday and Friday. Should a fire start,
the potential for fire spread will be higher over this time period
compared to the rest of the week.
Models are in fairly good agreement that the ridge axis of high
pressure will gradually settle atop North and Central Texas by the
weekend, leading to continued hot and dry weather. Temperatures
across North Texas will be in the 100-102 range with 98-100
degrees in Central Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Isolated convection near the D10 airports will linger for the
next hour or so before dissipating with loss of heating. It is
unlikely that these cells would be capable of producing gusty
outflow winds immediately at any of the airports, unless a new
cell can develop right on top of the airfield. A southeasterly
wind around 10 kt will prevail with occasional higher gusts during
the daytime again tomorrow. There is a slim chance for MVFR
stratus to intrude on Waco in the morning, but cigs will most
likely remain to the south and will not be advertised in the TAF
at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 101 79 99 / 10 10 0 0
Waco 76 98 76 97 / 10 10 0 0
Paris 75 97 75 96 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 77 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 0
McKinney 76 99 76 98 / 10 10 0 0
Dallas 79 100 80 100 / 10 10 0 0
Terrell 75 99 75 98 / 10 10 0 0
Corsicana 75 98 76 98 / 10 10 0 0
Temple 74 96 75 98 / 10 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 99 74 100 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
