Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
807
FXUS64 KFWD 060018
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
718 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persits overnight
through Sunday with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours
each day. Occasional lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and
locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the strongest
storms.
- Warmer and predominantly rain-free weather will return for most
of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Only minor changes were made to the PoPs tonight and Saturday,
due primarily to the challenges the HRRR, and for that matter,
the NBM, appear to be having in locking in on the key periods of
precipitation. Cosmetic changes this evening were driven by the
current radar coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms,
primarily in areas along and south of the I-20 corridor. Still
most confident in seeing measurable rainfall across our Central TX
zones, mainly west of I-35 overnight.
Owing to the weak forcing aloft in association with the meandering upper
low, uncertainties in the location and timing of the key
convective areas will be substantial. In general, the pre-existing
50-80% PoPs from earlier today were retained, with the highest
values depicted closer to the Red River during the afternoon
hours. While widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, healthy
precipitable water values across most of the region, coupled with
the slow movement of cells, may promote some isolated 2-3"
rainfall totals. This may be sufficient to create some localized
flooding issues across North Central Texas on Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
A warm and humid airmass continues across north Texas today.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly cloudy
skies and a few showers around. This is mostly thanks to an upper-
level trough located over northwest Mexico keeping the region in
southwest flow aloft. Any breaks in the high-level cloud cover will
allow additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop.
PWAT values are between 1.8 to 2.2 inches so any storms that develop
could quickly produce locally heavy rainfall as they move northward.
The upper-level trough should lift out of Mexico and into west Texas
overnight. As this upper low approaches, lift will increase across
north Texas and allow for showers and thunderstorms to increase
during the night. The upper-level low should slowly move northward
into Oklahoma through the day and provide substantial lift across
north Texas. The dry slot looks to move into the Big Country
tomorrow and allow widespread clouds to clear out from the Metroplex
westward by late morning. The resultant heating in this area and
effect of being close to the upper low should lead to increased
chances for stronger storms to develop in the afternoon across the
Big Country and northwest of the Metroplex through the evening. In
addition to heavy rainfall, these storms will have the potential to
produce damaging downburst winds and large hail.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The upper-level low will push northeastward to near Kansas City on
Sunday. The trough axis should move from west to east across
north Texas throughout the day. This should provide lift for
another round of thunderstorms mainly along and north of the I-20
corridor. Chances for severe weather look low at this time, but
storms could still produce locally heavy rainfall.
The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley on Monday. In it`s wake, models show that a
subtropical ridge will build in across Texas and persist through
at least Wednesday. Rain chances look to dry up during this time,
but much hotter conditions are anticipated. Models show 500 mb
heights of 590 dam over east Texas with 850 mb temperatures around
20 deg C each day. This would translate to medium (40 to 60%)
chances for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In
addition, the humidity levels will still be rather high for much
of next week with dewpoints in the low 70s. This would lead to
heat indices between 100-105 each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
A sluggish upper level low over West Texas, coupled with abundant
Gulf moisture, will promote scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms across North Texas overnight into Saturday
morning. Across the D10 airspace, VFR conditions should prevail
at the TAF sites through at least 09z tonight, though patchy
transitory shower activity may promote some brief MVFR conditions
at times. After 09z, a renewed northward surge of stratus should
impact Waco and the DFW TAF sites, creating a sustained period of
MVFR cigs through 15z. At the same time, transient showers will
affect the vicinities of these sites.
Timing the onset of any substantial convection - particularly
thunderstorms - remains elusive due to the challenges the short-
term models are having in capturing the precipitation fields
associated with the slow moving upper low. There is general
confidence that the D10 TAF sites will experience thunderstorm
activity at some point Saturday, and for now, have opted to
include a TEMPO of TSRA in the 18z-22z period, if for no other
reason than due to the potential contribution of afternoon
heating through this time window. This timing will almost
certainly need to be refined in subsequent forecasts. Apart from
the storms, episodic shower activity will impact D10 and the Waco
areas through the 18-06z period Saturday/Saturday evening.
Ceilings should undergo some slow improvement from 15z onward
Saturday, transitioning to VFR conditions at all TAF sites after
18z.
Surface winds should remain fairly steady state tonight through
Saturday, due to the persistent nature of the pressure field
across the region. Southeast winds overnight, at speeds averaging
8-10 knots should veer slightly by Saturday morning, becoming
southerly at speeds of 9-12 knots after 18z.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 85 72 88 / 80 70 60 70
Waco 71 84 72 87 / 80 50 50 40
Paris 70 81 70 84 / 60 80 70 90
Denton 70 84 70 88 / 80 70 70 70
McKinney 71 83 71 86 / 70 80 60 80
Dallas 72 86 72 89 / 80 70 60 70
Terrell 71 84 71 86 / 70 70 60 70
Corsicana 72 86 73 88 / 80 70 50 60
Temple 71 85 72 88 / 90 50 50 30
Mineral Wells 68 85 69 89 / 70 60 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
