Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
403
FXUS64 KFWD 282356
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
556 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazardous travel impacts due to lingering ice and re-freezing
on roads will continue across North Texas tonight into Thursday.
- Another round of freezing fog is possible tonight into Thursday
morning, mainly for areas near and east of Interstate 35.
- Much colder temperatures and frigid wind chills are expected
Saturday into Sunday. Wind chills on Saturday will range from
-5 to 15 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
A warmer, sunnier day is expected today as upper-level ridging
continues to build into the region in the wake of a departing
shortwave disturbance. Afternoon highs will be able to peak in the
upper 30s to upper 40s today, with much less dense cirrus
spreading in from the west. These conditions will prove much more
efficient for melting the snow/sleet and ice still coating much of
the ground. However, the fly in the ointment is that any slush or
water still on the ground will refreeze tonight as temperatures
drop below freezing once again. While the last couple of nights
have been cold, observations have been warmer than the base NBM
guidance. As such, I have warmed overnight temperatures a tad,
with morning lows expected to bottom out in the mid 20s to just
below freezing. Returning southerly winds will allow for better
warm advection tonight. This advection will promote another round
of patchy freezing fog, mainly near and east of the I-35 corridor.
One thing to keep an eye on is the temperatures and cloud cover.
If we end up even warmer than currently forecast, it may inhibit
fog formation. If freezing fog forms, light ice accumulations will
be possible, which would increase the potential for black ice on
roads. Make sure to give yourself plenty of time during the
morning commute and to drive carefully and slowly.
Tomorrow will fare even warmer, with highs expected to peak in
the 40s to around 60 degrees. A shortwave disturbance currently
moving towards Utah will continue its trek across the CONUS,
sending it`s attendant cold front south through the region over
the afternoon and evening on Thursday, bringing colder
temperatures and breezy winds with gusts up to 20-25 mph. A lack
of meaningful moisture ahead of the front will keep this frontal
passage dry as it moves through North and Central Texas. We`ll
continue the trend of melting in the afternoon, however, any
lingering melt/slush on the ground will refreeze Thursday night
as temperatures dip below freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
With the front expected to be south of the region, Friday will be
a bit cooler than the day before with afternoon highs in the low
40s to low 50s. A re-enforcing shot of cold air will be shunted
across North and Central Texas on Friday as an upper low to our
east swings from the Great Lakes towards the Carolinas. This will
result in even colder conditions as we head into the weekend.
The coldest conditions will be Saturday morning to Sunday
morning. Morning low temperatures will dip in to the teens and
20s both mornings. There is potential for another Extreme Cold
Watch or Cold Weather Advisory to be issued Friday night through
Saturday morning, as wind chills range between -5 and 15 degrees
due to breezy winds. Any Watch/Warning/Advisory will come in the
next day or so as we get closer in time. Saturday afternoon will
see highs only in the 30s, with much of North Texas at or slightly
below freezing. Latest NBM probabilities also show that much of
Central Texas has a 20-50% chance of staying at or below 32
degrees. We`ll continue to keep an eye on this potential as we go
through the next couple of days. Thankfully, this frigid cold will
be temporary as a rapid warm up is expected Sunday into early
next week.
Unsettled weather is in our future as long-range guidance shows
multiple shortwave disturbances breaking down the western CONUS
ridge, and eventually swinging across the Plains. Rain chances are
expected to increase beginning early next week across North and
Central Texas. Thankfully, we will be above freezing during both
the days and nights, so all precipitation at this time will remain
liquid.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026
North winds briefly became calm to light and variable as a
surface ridge moved southeast through the area. Winds have since
shifted to the south at 5 to 10 kt, and will remain as such for
the rest of the night as the ridge propagates southeast to the
Upper Texas and Louisiana Coasts. Clear skies and light winds
will lead to fog development in some areas, but the latest
guidance keeps the lowest visibilities north and east of the DFW
Metroplex. That being said, probabilities for MVFR vis are high
enough to include in all TAFs (4SM BR) late tonight through
Thursday morning.
Winds will veer to the southwest and increase to around 15kt after
15Z Thursday in advance of a shortwave (currently located near the
UT/CO border). The shortwave will be accompanied by another cold
front, which will push through the DFW Metroplex 20-22Z and KACT
22-00Z Thursday evening. Northwest winds of 15-20 kt, scattered
low clouds and colder air are in store Thursday night behind the
front. It is possible that clouds become thick enough to form MVFR
cigs for a few hours behind the front, but probs remain pretty
low at this time and will stick with SCT030 for now.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 31 52 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 28 57 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 27 49 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 25 50 22 44 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 29 50 25 42 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 31 54 28 45 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 28 52 27 44 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 30 56 30 47 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 27 59 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 26 52 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
