Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
312
FXUS64 KFWD 042330
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot conditions will prevail across the region over the next
week, with widespread triple digit temperatures returning for
the Labor Day holiday.
- Low rain chances will exist most afternoons across portions of
Central Texas. Rain-free weather is expected elsewhere.
- Elevated fire weather concerns are expected in the Big Country
Saturday into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
This morning`s cloud cover and precipitation continues to diminish
in coverage as the influence of Edouard is now confined to a mid-
level weakness that will continue to shift west through the rest
of today. With this weakness mainly to our south, additional
isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop through the
afternoon across Central Texas. Overall, expect coverage to remain
low (20-30%). Gusty outflow winds cannot be ruled out, however,
storm related winds should remain below 30 mph.
With drier conditions across North Texas, temperatures will
continue to rise in to the mid to upper 90s today. Similar to the
past couple of days, the lowest relative humidity values will
remain west of US-281, where mid to upper 30% can be expected.
By tomorrow, North and Central Texas will be located on the
southern periphery of the mid-level high pressure system. Easterly
flow will bring another weak shortwave across the region during
the late morning to early afternoon hours. With tomorrow`s shortwave
moving just south of our area, a few showers and storms will once
again develop across the Brazos Valley. Similar to today,
coverage will mainly remain between 20-30% through around sunset
before precipitation dissipates in the evening. For North Texas, a
warming trend will commence with temperatures a few degrees
warmer compared to today (Friday).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
On Sunday, a well amplified ridge will be in control across much
of the plains, leading to a warming trend that will persist
through the rest of the forecast period. A few showers and storms
may once again develop in the afternoon across the Brazos Valley,
however, coverage is expected to once again remain low.
Widespread triple-digit heat can be expected on Labor Day across
North Texas with readings generally between 100-103 degrees.
Slightly cooler conditions are expected across Central Texas
thanks to a more humid airmass. This same pattern will then
persist through the rest of the work week as the area of high
pressure refuses to move, leading North and Central Texas under
hot and dry conditions.
The persistence of the hot and dry weather will continue through
the rest of the week, leading to a continued elevated fire
weather threat across western parts of North and Central Texas.
Afternoon relative humidity will drop to around 30% each
afternoon. Light winds will continue to mitigate the potential
for rapid spread, however, the potential for fire starts will
remain in place.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
VFR conditions will continue through the period with no major
aviation concerns. South to southeast winds will prevail between 5
to 10 knots, with light and variable winds expected late tonight
through Saturday morning. Guidance has backed off on the
potential for fog near the Waco terminal. If any fog were to
develop, it should remain south/east of the terminal. Any showers
or storms on Saturday will also remain well east/southeast of the
terminals.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 78 99 79 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 99 74 97 75 / 30 0 10 0
Paris 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 99 74 99 75 / 20 0 0 0
McKinney 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 100 79 100 79 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 98 74 98 74 / 10 0 10 0
Corsicana 96 74 97 75 / 10 0 10 10
Temple 98 72 97 73 / 30 0 10 0
Mineral Wells 99 71 100 72 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Barnes
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
