Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
003
FXUS64 KFWD 221805
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous heat will continue with widespread heat index values
of 105 to 120 degrees expected this afternoon.
- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect
across North and Central Texas and will likely continue to be
extended through the remainder of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
A strong upper level ridge combined with high humidity will
continue to bring dangerous heat to the region. Temperatures have
already climbed into the mid to upper 90s as of midday, with heat
index values already between 105-110 degrees for many locations.
Actual temperatures will peak between 100-105 degrees this
afternoon, with dew points only mixing out into the upper 60s to
mid 70s for most of the forecast area. This will result in peak
index values between 105 and 120 degrees, making for rather
dangerous conditions. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
remain in effect through this evening, and the Extreme Heat
Warning was expanded to include Fannin, Delta, and Lamar counties.
It will be best to limit time spent outdoors this afternoon.
A weak cold front will slide into the region from the northeast
through the afternoon, but will unfortunately offer little to no
relief from the heat today. Despite strong subsidence beneath the
upper ridge, there remains a low (10-20% chance) for isolated
showers or storms to develop late this afternoon through early
evening as the front moves through the region. However, most
locations will remain rain-free. East to northeast winds are
expected to prevail behind the front through Thursday. This
subtle shift will be enough to turn the intense heat down just a
tad, with much of the area actually remaining below 100 degrees
Thursday afternoon. While the front will bring a brief period of
drier air to the region tonight into Thursday morning, moisture
ahead of TS Bertha in the Gulf will advect inland throughout the
day, resulting in high humidity and peak heat index values between
100-109 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory remains in effect
for most of the area through Thursday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
Hot conditions are expected to persist through early next week.
Following a brief reprieve from the intense heat we`re currently
experiencing, the upper level ridge will strengthen a bit over the
weekend, resulting in the return of widespread triple digit
temperatures. A shortwave or two may round the upper ridge into
the region over the weekend but will be rather inconsequential
outside of perhaps a slight increase in cloud cover. Heat
headlines will likely be needed over the weekend and perhaps into
next week for portions of the area (primarily North Texas) as heat
index values will continue to climb above 105 degrees on a daily
basis. There is no strong signal for rain chances through the end
of the month, so the doldrums of summer appear to be upon us as we
close out the month of July.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. North/northeast
winds will become more east/northeast as a weak front moves
through the region this afternoon and evening and will remain
generally out of the east through the end of the period. Wind
speeds will mostly be between 5 to 10 knots but will see a brief
increase to 10 to 12 knots between 21-01Z. There is a very low
potential for isolated showers or storms to develop late this
afternoon through early evening. The potential is too low to
include any mention in the TAFs at this time, but we will monitor
trends over the next several hours.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 100 81 101 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 80 98 80 97 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 74 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 100 80 101 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 98 79 98 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 80 99 79 97 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 77 100 76 101 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ100>105-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ129-141-142-156.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
