Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
018
FXUS64 KFWD 031043
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through the holiday weekend
with highs mainly in the mid and upper 90s and peak heat index
values of 100 to 105 degrees.
- Low storm chances are expected today through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
North Texas remains on the western periphery of stronger mid level
ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS at this time. Weak
southerly low level flow will persist allowing Gulf moisture to
remain in place across the eastern half of the state into the
weekend. As a result, hot weather will continue into the holiday
weekend with low rain chances across parts of the region.
GOES precipitable water imagery shows a plume of relatively deep
moisture along and east of the I-35 corridor into the Arklatex
where PW values range between 1.7 and 2.0 inches. With another day
of strong afternoon heating, little capping, and weak low and mid
level wind fields, we do expect isolated convection to develop
mainly along and east of I-35 this afternoon into the early
evening hours. Any storms that develop would be slow moving with
some potential for locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
Fairly large T/Td spreads would also support an isolated strong
wind gust with any of the convection this afternoon. Coverage of
storms will decrease during the evening with loss of heating and
PoPs will generally be 20% or less.
Highs will top out in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values
between 100-103 degrees. Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid
to upper 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
With a series of shortwave troughs spreading through the Northern
Plains and Great Lakes through the weekend, the mid level ridging
over the eastern CONUS will begin to reposition itself back over
the southwest U.S. into early next week. Hot weather will continue
during this time although we`ll see a slight uptick in the
coverage of showers/storms through Monday. Similar to today,
isolated thunderstorms are expected again on the 4th of July with
the best coverage along and east of I-35. PoPs will be around 20%
through the early evening hours. This trend will continue into
Sunday although weak troughing will begin to slide southward
through the Plains during this time. The bulk of any convection on
Sunday may be displaced to our north and east closer to weak upper
forcing for ascent. This troughing or weakness in the upper
heights will settle southward toward North Texas on Monday where
an axis of 1.8-2.0" PWs will be positioned along the I-20 corridor
during the afternoon. Coverage of scattered showers/storms will
likely tick upward a bit Monday afternoon into the evening hours.
With slightly more cloud cover around during this time, high
temperatures will generally hang out in the mid to upper 90s.
Mid level ridging will begin to build back into the region by the
middle of the week with rain chances falling back to less than 10%
and high temperatures remaining in the upper 90s.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds around
10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening mainly east of the major airports, however, there is a low
probability (~10%) that a storm could impact eastern parts of the
D10 airspace. Outside of this low convective potential and any
associated wind changes due to outflow, no significant aviation
concerns are expected through the period.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 80 98 80 / 10 0 10 0
Waco 97 77 97 76 / 0 0 10 0
Paris 91 74 93 74 / 20 0 20 0
Denton 96 78 98 77 / 10 0 10 0
McKinney 95 77 97 77 / 20 0 20 0
Dallas 97 80 98 81 / 10 10 10 0
Terrell 95 76 96 76 / 20 10 20 0
Corsicana 95 76 96 76 / 10 0 20 0
Temple 96 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
