Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
326
FXUS64 KFWD 101807
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
107 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will continue this week and into the
weekend with highs in the 90s and peak heat indices in the
100-107 range.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-60% chance) look to
return to the area the second half of this weekend into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Visible satellite imagery shows a scattered cumulus field across
central and eastern TX this afternoon with radar indicating a few
isolated showers primarily off to our southeast. The upper pattern
features weak flow aloft beneath stronger ridging over the
Southeastern U.S. and troughing over the Northern Plains. Aircraft
soundings over the last hour indicate a strong capping inversion
which should limit anything more than a few isolated showers
mainly east of I-35. Coverage should be 10% or less through the
early evening.
With troughing well to our north and a deepening surface low over
southwestern Kansas, the low level jet will strengthen to 40 kt
overnight and should usher in a swath of low cloud cover through
early Thursday morning. Overnight lows will generally be in the
mid to upper 70s.
On Thursday, the aforementioned surface low in Kansas will pull
off to the northeast and drag a cold front through Oklahoma. The
front will be the focus for convective development mainly to our
north during the day. As low clouds scatter out, we should see
mostly sunny skies by afternoon with temperatures climbing into
the low/mid 90s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Convection should be ongoing primarily to our north Thursday
night along the frontal boundary and although this boundary will
likely remain to our north, an axis of modest instability will be
present south of the Red River. While the low level jet won`t be
particularly strong, low level inflow of 20-30 kt should be
sufficient to keep some of these storms going south of the river
late Thursday night into early Friday morning. We`ll keep 40-60%
PoPs confined to areas mainly north of I-20 during this time. As
convection should be in the dissipating stage by this time, the
threat for severe weather should be generally low, although some
gusty winds can`t be ruled out.
Weak mid level ridging will be in place during the day Friday,
although any remnant outflow boundaries may serve as a focus for
isolated convection through the afternoon. While PoPs will
generally be 20% or less, temps in the mid 90s and weak deep layer
flow would support an isolated severe wind gust with any strong
storms that develop. Ridging should generally prevail on Saturday
with slightly drier air moving in from the west which should keep
any rain chances at less than 10%. Temperatures will respond
upward across the region during this time with highs in the mid
90s.
By Sunday, stronger ridging will be shunted southward as broad
troughing overspreads much of the Plains. Another frontal boundary
will be draped to our north during the afternoon and we should see
widespread storms develop along this boundary well to our north.
This potentially sets the stage for an active Sunday night as
stronger height falls move into the Southern Plains amidst
strengthening mid and upper level flow. With a broad area of
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in place ahead of the frontal boundary into
North Texas, there is increasing confidence in a complex of
thunderstorms spreading south out of Oklahoma into North Texas
late Sunday night into Monday morning. If these storms can become
organized, they would be accompanied by a severe wind threat
through the overnight hours.
As is often the case with this type of pattern, any complex of
storms would certainly dictate the forecast going into Monday with
PoPs favored across our southern counties where any residual
convection would either be ongoing or boundaries would linger.
We`ll maintain PoPs through this period and make adjustments as
necessary. Outside of the convective potential, temperatures will
be warm in the mid 90s through Sunday with heat index values
between 100-105 degrees. Cooler air is expected Monday through the
middle of next week, but likewise, is somewhat dependent upon
convection.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
VFR will prevail through late this evening with south winds
15G25KT and SCT040 cloud cover. A strengthening low level jet will
result in widespread MVFR cigs early Thursday morning which should
scatter out by late morning. No significant convective potential
exists until overnight Thursday night and that should generally be
across northern D10 toward the Red River.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 94 77 94 / 0 0 20 10
Waco 77 92 78 94 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 75 93 74 91 / 0 0 60 50
Denton 77 94 76 92 / 0 0 40 30
McKinney 77 93 76 92 / 0 0 40 30
Dallas 78 94 78 95 / 0 0 20 10
Terrell 77 92 76 94 / 0 0 10 10
Corsicana 77 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 76 92 76 94 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 75 95 75 94 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
