Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
842
FXUS64 KFWD 221041
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and heavy
rainfall will spread into parts of North Texas this morning.
Localized flash flooding is possible near and north of I-20.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop tonight into
Tuesday, with the highest rain chances across North Texas near
a stalled front.
- Seasonably hot and humid conditions will continue through the
rest of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The main concern through the short term period is the upstream
convective complex in Oklahoma as of midnight, which will move SSE
into parts of North Texas this morning. While some weakening of
this complex is expected as it outruns synoptic scale support
while encountering increasing nocturnal MLCIN, it will likely
remain capable of strong to marginally severe wind gusts upon
entering North Texas after 3-4AM. Would expect activity to at
least advance as far south of the I-20 corridor towards daybreak,
with some of the more aggressive guidance pushing an outflow all
the way into our southeastern zones by mid-morning. PoPs will be
highest across our northeast and taper off to the southwest with
western portions of Central Texas unlikely to be impacted by such
a complex this morning, but a large portion of North Texas should
expect to experience a stormy morning commute. Should this complex
begin to slow or stall, individual cells would begin training in
a west-east fashion, and this would increase the potential for
flash flooding in along a localized corridor. We will likely see a
relative minimum in convection by this afternoon and evening as
morning convection winds down towards midday. However,
redevelopment is possible later this evening and overnight along a
newly established and repositioned effective frontal zone, which
may be located near the Red River or even slightly farther south
through North Texas depending on the evolution of today`s
convection. PoPs will be indicated particularly near/north of
I-20 for the tonight/Tuesday period to account for this.
This morning`s convective complex does complicate the potential
need for heat headlines today. We`ll likely have a dense cirrus
canopy present across at least the eastern half of the CWA
through the first portion of the day. In addition, if the
convective outflow does surge all the way south into Central
Texas, this will help scour dewpoints by a few degrees which
would keep heat index values well below 105 this afternoon. If
this scenario does not play out and our south/southeast zones are
unaffected by remnant convection today, then these areas probably
will meet Heat Advisory criteria. Should this occur, a Heat
Advisory may still need to be issued later this morning for
roughly our southeastern quadrant of counties. This same area will
also be the most likely to reach criteria on Tuesday afternoon,
barring any additional effects from nearby convection later
tonight or Tuesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
With the upper ridge axis beginning to expand late Tuesday and
Wednesday, our potential for thunderstorm complexes will
diminish during the second half of the week as we transition to
weaker zonal flow aloft. The last potential for nearby
thunderstorm complexes will probably be on Wednesday, with no PoPs
mentioned from Thursday onward as the more active storm pattern
retreats northward into the Central Plains. Without convection
nearby to interrupt daytime heat and humidity, we should make a
more convincing return to clear-cut Heat Advisory levels,
especially heading into next weekend. Highs will be in the mid
90s to around 100 late in the week and next weekend, while
overnight lows fall into the mid and upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026
A weakening line of convection is approaching the Metroplex
airports from the north as of 11z and is still expected to result
in a brief period of TSRA at the TAF sites during the next few
hours. This activity will also likely be accompanied by a
temporary north wind shift with gusts as high as 25-30 kts.
Following the gradual dissipation of convection late this morning
and early this afternoon, VFR and a south wind will prevail into
the early evening. There is some potential for convective
redevelopment in parts of North Texas late this evening and
overnight, but confidence in placement and coverage remains far
too low to include additional period of TSRA in the remainder of
the TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 78 96 79 / 80 20 20 0
Waco 93 77 93 77 / 20 0 0 0
Paris 87 74 89 75 / 90 50 30 10
Denton 91 77 95 78 / 80 20 20 0
McKinney 90 77 93 78 / 90 30 20 0
Dallas 91 78 96 79 / 80 20 20 0
Terrell 91 76 94 77 / 80 20 20 0
Corsicana 91 77 95 76 / 40 10 10 0
Temple 93 77 94 76 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 91 76 96 77 / 50 10 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
