Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
868
FXUS64 KFWD 211046
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot and humid weather resumes today into the
upcoming week with heat index values mainly of 100-105 degrees.
- Expect breezy south winds with gusts up to 30 mph today, with a
20-30% chance for rain showers east of I-35.
- Thunderstorm chances exist in North Texas each day through the
upcoming week with a potential for locally heavy rainfall and
flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
As lee cyclogenesis occurs today associated with a progressive
Central Plains shortwave, low-level southerly flow will strengthen
locally in response. This will send a swath of low stratus into
parts of Central and East Texas later this morning, while surface
winds steadily increase with the onset of daytime mixing. The
result will be a warm, humid, and breezy afternoon with heat index
values of 100-105 and sustained winds of 15-20 mph gusting to
around 30 mph at times. There will also be some precipitation
chances mainly east of I-35 and south of I-20 through the daytime
as abundant moisture content results in a percolating cumulus
field and some showery activity from late morning into the
afternoon. Occurrences of thunder should be rather scarce with
this activity, or perhaps even absent entirely.
The majority of the forecast area looks to stay below Heat
Advisory criteria today, although there probably will be a couple
of sites that briefly touch a 105F heat index. Across our
southeast, dewpoints will likely hold in the upper 70s to near 80
through the afternoon, but some residual cloud cover will cause
high temperatures to struggle to even reach 90F. Stronger mixing
will occur across our northwest with dewpoints falling into the
lower 70s which will combine with highs in the mid 90s to also
yield 100-105F heat indices. Max WBGTs are only forecast to reach
about 86 this afternoon, and while not an official contributor to
Heat Advisory decision-making, these fairly modest values do
capture the component of wind relief while favoring the decision
of no heat headlines for today.
By tonight, our attention will turn to the north where MCS
activity will be ongoing along a stalled frontal boundary through
parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. There will be a potential for some
of this activity to build southward towards the TX/OK border by
daybreak Monday, although this potential overall still looks to be
on the low side based on the suite of 00z guidance. The majority
of the CAMs want to keep any such complexes north/northeast of the
CWA, while only the coarser ECMWF guidance favors sending a
complex into North Texas, even as far south as the I-20 corridor.
A more likely scenario may be that a gravity wave or outflow
emanating from such activity will advance into the CWA
unaccompanied by convection initially, but instead serving as a
focus for new convective development later in the day. We`ll
indicate 20-40% PoPs across North Texas from Monday morning
through the afternoon hours to advertise each of these
possibilities. Any such activity could be strong to marginally
severe with primarily a wind threat. In addition, any cells within
North Texas could begin training in a W-E or NW-SE fashion during
this time period which would lead to a risk for localized
flooding. Areas unaffected by convection, especially parts of
Central Texas, could experience a rather hot Monday afternoon with
heat index values exceeding 105, and at least a small portion of
the CWA could require heat headlines.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
The synoptic pattern through the upcoming week will favor
additional upstream MCS activity as the upper ridge axis remains
displaced to our west with northwesterly mid-level flow
prevailing. The result will be occasional thunderstorm complexes
originating along a quasi-stationary frontal zone in Central
Oklahoma which should have a tendency to advance southeastward
towards North Texas on nearly a daily basis. Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings currently have the highest chances for this
potential to come to fruition, with chances decreasing later in
the workweek as the upper ridge axis strengthens and expands
eastward slightly. Our primary concerns with any such activity
will continue to be strong/severe wind gusts and heavy
rainfall/flooding. Areas unaffected by convection could approach
or exceed Heat Advisory criteria on a daily basis, although this
potential often can get interrupted by the arrival of upstream
anvil cirrus or even the passage of surface outflow boundaries, so
confidence in the necessity of heat headlines through the
upcoming week is still rather low at this time scale.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through most of the period. Cigs have
been slow to fill in across D10 this morning, and the Tempo group
for Metroplex airports will be removed with low stratus likely to
remain FEW/SCT. Waco will still experience a few hours of low
MVFR cigs though about 16z where these conditions will be
prevailed. Expect breezy south winds through most of today with
occasional gusts of 25-30 kts during the afternoon hours. All rain
shower activity is expected to remain east/southeast of the TAF
sites. An intrusion of MVFR cigs appears increasingly likely at
all sites heading into Monday morning which has been introduced
at the end of the valid TAF period. There is also a chance for a
weakening thunderstorm complex to move southward into North Texas
after 12z tomorrow, but this potential is currently still too
uncertain to address in the extended DFW TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 79 96 78 / 0 10 20 10
Waco 91 78 93 77 / 20 0 10 0
Paris 90 77 90 75 / 10 30 50 50
Denton 93 79 95 77 / 0 20 20 30
McKinney 92 78 93 77 / 0 20 30 30
Dallas 94 79 96 79 / 10 10 20 10
Terrell 91 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 10
Corsicana 90 78 95 78 / 20 0 10 0
Temple 91 77 94 77 / 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 93 77 95 76 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
