Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
021
FXUS64 KFWD 281852
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
152 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and non-severe storms will once again develop this
afternoon. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning will be
the main threats.
- Above normal temperatures are possible Friday through Monday
with many seeing highs in the low to mid 90s each day.
- Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will be possible in the
afternoon and evening hours the first half of next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
The slow moving mid-level trough that led to previous days`
showers and storms will slowly move out this evening, but not
before setting off another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. The main area for precipitation today will be
across North Texas, where the remnants of a morning cluster of
storms will continue to move southeast closer to the I-20
corridor. With daytime heating leading to a build up of
instability, expect the storms to develop by the mid-afternoon
hours and linger through around sunset. The severe weather threat
will remain low due to minimal wind shear in place, however,
gusty winds and brief heavy rain cannot be ruled out from any
thunderstorm activity.
Overnight, aside from a stray shower, most locations will remain
precipitation free with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 60s.
Similar to last night, isolated patchy fog may develop across
Central Texas closer to sunrise Friday.
Weak ridging will arrive tomorrow as the mid-level trough moves
to the northeast. This will lead to weak subsidence atop of North
and Central Texas, yielding dry conditions throughout much of the
day. A dryline will set up in the afternoon across West Texas
which may generate a cluster of storms with a general
east/northeastward movement. Given our weakly subsident regime,
the expectation is for all of this activity to wane as it
approaches our region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
The ridge that lead to a rather quiet day on Friday will move
east as troughing near the Four Corners inches closer to the
Southern Plains. With southwesterly flow increasing across our
region, we`ll begin to see additional shortwaves emerge out of
northern Mexico, moving to the northeast. A dryline is likely to
set up across West Texas Saturday afternoon, initiating
thunderstorms well to our west. Storm motion will be to the
northeast, where a few of those storms may move into western parts
of North and Central Texas by Saturday evening. A narrow corridor
of high instability will set up across our northwestern counties,
which may lead to a few strong to isolated severe storms. Overall
thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain low.
A similar set up is expected Sunday evening, however, the
placement of the dryline is like to be farther west. Although a
few showers or storms may approach our western counties after
sunset Sunday, overall rain chances are below 15%.
By the first half of next week, nebulous flow in the mid and
upper levels may keep a slow-moving shortwave atop our region
through the middle of the week. With deep southerly flow in place
leading to abundant moisture, afternoon heating and
destabilization may be the main driver for near daily storm
chances. Timing and coverage remain highly uncertain, however, the
mid-afternoon to evening hours will likely be favor. A slightly
stronger shortwave may approach our region late next work week,
providing stronger forcing for ascent, however, run-to-run
consistency remains low, thus, confidence in the timing/coverage
of precipitation is low as well.
Nonetheless, temperatures through much of the week will be in the
upper to 80s to mid 90s with the warmest weather expected to be
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures those two days will be in the
lower to mid 90s with heat index values near the triple-digit
mark.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026
A few showers continue to progress from northwest to southeast
this early afternoon across D10, generally just north of the North
Texas TAF sites. As we progress through the rest of the day,
expect additional thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Metroplex
TAF sites. Confidence remains low on exact placement, however,
latest guidance continues to suggest a showers and storms
developing closer to 21z and moving southeast through the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected with any
shower/storm INVOF the TAF sites. Outside of the convection, light
and variable winds can be expected through 00z.
After 00z Friday, winds will become established out of the
southeast near 05 kts with VFR conditions through the rest of the
TAF cycle. Winds will fluctuate between southeasterly to
southwesterly through tomorrow. Overall rain chance tomorrow will
remain low compared to the last few days. Although storms may
develop across West Texas and move east, they are not expected to
impact our TAF sites tomorrow.
For Waco, VFR and precipitation-free conditions are expected.
Light and variable winds will continue through the rest of the day
with southeasterly winds expected tonight. Similarly, winds will
veer out of the southwest tomorrow morning with high clouds
streaming over the area much of the day.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 91 75 92 / 10 0 10 0
Waco 70 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 66 86 71 89 / 20 10 10 0
Denton 69 90 75 91 / 10 10 10 0
McKinney 69 90 74 90 / 20 10 10 0
Dallas 71 92 76 93 / 20 0 10 0
Terrell 68 90 73 91 / 20 0 10 0
Corsicana 70 93 74 93 / 20 0 0 0
Temple 70 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 68 91 72 91 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
