Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
072
FXUS64 KFWD 071735
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low storm chances will continue this afternoon and again Tuesday
mainly for areas east of I-35 and in Central TX.
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the rest of the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
Cumulus continues to develop across Central and North Texas early
this afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid 90s. GOES PW
imagery shows 2 inch PWs extending from the Hill Country through
southeast TX and into Louisiana with a small drop in values
farther north. We are drier today across North Texas than we were
yesterday. At the surface, an old remnant frontal boundary is
still present and draped across the Arklatex with light northerly
flow across parts of Arkansas and light southerly flow to the
south of the boundary. This area will feature persistent moisture
convergence through the afternoon and with continued heating we
should see some scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Some
of these may make it into our northeast counties over the next
several hours and we`ll maintain some 10% PoP there. Otherwise,
it`ll continue to be hot and humid with highs near 100 and heat
indices between 104-107 degrees.
The heat will continue into Tuesday and we`ll extend the current
Heat Advisory configuration through Tuesday evening. We may see a
little more shower/storm activity tomorrow afternoon as a weak
impulse moves out of the mid-South and around the southern
periphery of ridging over the Plains. Weak ascent associated with
this feature and ample deep layer moisture should result in a
notable uptick in convection to our south and east through the
afternoon. Some of this activity may spread into our far eastern
counties where we`ll have some 20% PoPs. Outside of slightly
higher rain/storm chances in the east, most areas will stay dry
with highs again 5-10 degrees above normal.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
Ridging will continue to flatten out a bit through the middle of
the week as a series of disturbances move through the Central and
Northern Plains. There is still a signal in the guidance that a
frontal boundary will sag south toward the area by Thursday.
Meanwhile, weak upper troughing associated with a westward moving
wave over the Gulf will be located across South Texas. We should
see showers and thunderstorms ongoing mainly to our north along
the frontal boundary on Thursday while sea breeze activity to the
south results in higher than normal coverage of showers and storms
across southeast TX. This pattern would favor at least a slight
uptick in rain chances for both our northern areas (mainly along
the Red River) and our central TX and southeast counties. In
addition, a little more cloud cover may knock a few degrees off of
afternoon highs. Otherwise, hot conditions will continue into next
weekend with perhaps a little more active pattern headed into the
middle part of next week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals for the
duration of the forecast period. SE winds of 7-12 kts will veer to
SW tonight, decreasing to 5 kts or less. Expect fair weather cumulus
of bases 7 kft to develop through peak heating, with skies becoming
clear after sunset.
There is a low chance for thundershowers across Central Texas during
peak heating this afternoon. Probability remains too low to include
in the KACT TAF. Isolated thundershowers may also develop across
northeast Texas later this afternoon as ascent tied to a shortwave
rounding the eastern periphery of the mid/upper level ridge
encroaches on a convergence axis. Any activity is expected to
remain well northeast of the D10 airspace.
The aforementioned shortwave will progress further into Northeast
Texas by tomorrow afternoon. Isolated thundershowers may accompany,
however activity is once again expected to remain east/northeast of
D10.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
Paris 76 100 76 99 / 10 20 10 10
Denton 78 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 78 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 10
Dallas 82 101 81 101 / 0 10 0 10
Terrell 77 99 76 100 / 0 10 0 10
Corsicana 77 99 76 99 / 0 10 0 10
Temple 77 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 75 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123-133>135-146.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
