Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
480
FXUS64 KFWD 052102 AAA
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
402 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storm chances are expected this afternoon and evening
mainly along and north of I-20. A few severe wind gusts will be
possible through the early evening hours.
- Hot and dry conditions will persist next week with low storm
chances south of I-20 on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
An area of showers and thunderstorms has been moving southeastward
into North Texas over the past several hours. These storms are
expected to intensify as daytime heating takes hold during the mid
afternoon hours. In addition, more convection is expected to develop
along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle
to Deep East TX. The primary risk will be damaging wind gusts,
especially west of I-35 where temperature/dew point disparity will
be the greatest, but some large hail can`t be ruled out. Storms
that develop in the eastern half of the region are likely to
dissipate in the hours after sunset, but recent CAM guidance is
suggesting that the more organized storms out west will persist
into the early overnight hours.
Warm temperatures will continue to impact the region tomorrow, with
widespread heat indices of 100-105. The typical summertime pop-up
convection will begin as daytime heating sets in. However, there
may be some lingering outflow boundaries from tonight`s convection
that could act as a focus for development. The location and exact
timing will become more apparent as tonight`s storms progress.
Showers should quickly diminish soon after sunset and leave lows
to fall into the mid and upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Upper-level ridging will begin to build back northeastward from
the Desert Southwest, pushing rain chances out to our far eastern
zones on Tuesday and out of the region for much of the rest of
the week. There still may be some summertime pop-up convection but
nothing particularly widespread. Long-range models are depicting
a shortwave trough moving through the Midwest late Friday into
Saturday, which could push more organized rainfall into the
region over the weekend. This would be highly dependent on the
position and strength of the ridge by the end of the week, since a
greater eastern extent would work to keep the forcing at bay.
The dry conditions this week will make heat the front page story.
Expect temperatures to continue climbing to the mid to upper 90s
and adequately prepare for any outdoor activities to prevent
heat-related illness.
&&
.AVIATION...
(21Z TAFS)
Issued at 404 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026
Have decided to pull the TEMPO group from all terminals except
for KDAL as thunderstorms are struggling to initiate behind the
boundary that has moved WSW across the Metroplex this afternoon.
The main concern outside of the reduced visibility and lower
ceilings from thunderstorms will be strong outflow winds.
Confidence is lower on if TSRA will make it to KACT, but lingering
showers in the area is expected as the line pushes southward this
evening. The ENE wind shift associated with the driving boundary
should return to be light and southerly during the early overnight
hours with VFR conditions continuing through tomorrow morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 98 78 99 / 30 10 20 10
Waco 79 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
Paris 73 93 72 93 / 30 10 10 10
Denton 75 97 75 98 / 30 10 10 10
McKinney 76 96 75 97 / 30 10 20 10
Dallas 79 99 78 99 / 30 10 20 10
Terrell 75 97 74 96 / 30 20 30 10
Corsicana 78 98 77 98 / 20 30 20 10
Temple 78 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10
Mineral Wells 73 97 73 98 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Crumbacher
LONG TERM....Crumbacher
AVIATION...Crumbacher/Brauer
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
