Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
515
FXUS64 KFWD 222307
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
607 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures near or over 100 degrees will continue through
next week, with the hottest days of the summer likely Sunday
through Tuesday.
- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for parts of North
Texas with a Heat Advisory across the rest of North and Central
Texas, and these will likely be extended into early next week.
- Hot temperatures and low humidity will contribute to increased
wildfire starts this weekend through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through tonight)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Latest radar imagery show the earlier showers and thunderstorms
that affect much of southern Oklahoma all day and oozed southward
into our area have mostly dissipated. However, this activity has
left thick high level cloud cover north of I-20 which has held
temperatures down especially closer to the Red River. Based on
this, have gone ahead and removed Jack/Wise/Denton/Collin Counties
from the Extreme Heat Warning and put them in the Heat Advisory.
Despite the cloud cover, highs should still easily reach well
into the 90s in our north and 100s elsewhere - with the hottest
temperatures expected in the EHW.
Although an isolated shower/storm could pop up this afternoon,
CAMs have backed off this idea in favor of the shortwave
currently moving southward across Kansas/Oklahoma. As this system
arrives tonight, CAMs such as the HRRR/HREF indicate isolated
showers/storms could move southward out of Oklahoma into North
Texas in the 03-09Z timeframe. Have adjusted pops to match this
possibility. Otherwise, another warm night in the 70s/80s is
anticipated areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Forecast reasoning for next week remains unchanged from previous
discussions. The strong upper level ridge centered over New
Mexico/West Texas will shift closer to us from Sunday into
Tuesday, before gradually shifting back to the west from Wednesday
through the rest of the week. This pattern will give North and
Central Texas three very hot days from Sunday to Tuesday with highs
reaching the hottest of the summer so far into the 103-113 range.
The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory will certainly need to
be extended through at least Tuesday of next week. Although a few
isolated showers or storms are possible in East Texas on Sunday
afternoon, the rest of this three day period will be hot and dry.
From Wednesday into next weekend, the center of the H5 ridge will
shift westward into Arizona with heights falling aloft and
somewhat stronger upper level northerly flow developing over North
and Central Texas. This pattern shift will "cool" our high
temperatures down into the 98-104 range for the remainder of the
week, while also bringing low rain chances each day. Don`t get too
excited, however, as most areas will stay hot and dry. Given the
continued heat and lack of substantial rainfall, drought
conditions are likely to worsen with a continued/increasing
threat of wildfire starts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Surface winds will remain southerly but will oscillate between SE
and SW throughout the TAF period at D10 sites (generally 140-220).
Winds will be light enough where there are no crosswind concerns,
and no flow changes are anticipated with the prevailing wind.
Between 00Z and 09Z there is a very low chance (~10%) for an
isolated shower in D10, but probs are too low to include in TAFs
at this time. Brief wind gusts of 15-25 knots will be possible due
to areas of virga during this same time frame, but confidence in
timing and location is too low to include in TAFs as well.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 83 107 85 / 0 10 10 0
Waco 105 81 106 81 / 0 10 0 0
Paris 100 76 103 80 / 10 20 10 0
Denton 103 81 107 84 / 10 20 10 0
McKinney 103 80 106 83 / 10 20 10 0
Dallas 105 84 108 85 / 0 10 10 0
Terrell 105 79 107 82 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 104 81 105 81 / 0 10 10 0
Temple 104 79 105 78 / 0 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 106 78 108 81 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-101>107-
122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ100-
115>121-130>134.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
