Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
476
FXUS64 KFWD 041154
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
554 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily rain and storm
chances today through this weekend.
- Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible
this afternoon and evening across parts of North and Central
Texas near a cold front.
- After a relative lull in precipitation coverage Thursday,
multiple rounds of thunderstorms will bring a severe weather and
flash flooding threat to much of North and Central Texas Friday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
A warm, muggy early March night is expected tonight as southerly
low-level flow continues to draw Gulf moisture into North and
Central Texas. Low stratus will overspread much of the region by
sunrise Wednesday morning with temperatures bottoming out in the
mid to upper 60s across most of the forecast area.
A compact, mid-level shortwave will sweep across the Central
Plains on Wednesday pushing a slow-moving cold front into portions
of north-central Texas by midday. Steepening 700-500mb lapse rates
and continued warm-moist advection will lead to a plume of
2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE along and ahead of the frontal boundary
across much of North Texas by Wednesday afternoon. Subtle capping
centered near 750mb will likely keep more robust convection from
developing near and along the front until after 4-5PM Wednesday
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the front
earlier in the day will remain possible. The front will be
situated near the I-35 and I-20W corridors by the time conditions
become more supportive of deep convection. High-resolution
guidance varies in overall coverage, with the HRRR/RRFS solutions
acting more bullish on widespread thunderstorm activity and the
3km NAM remaining more bearish. Only 20-25 kts of effective bulk
shear will keep the potential for organized storms and the
overall severe weather threat on the lower end, however the
environment will support a few more robust cells capable of
producing isolated hail up to 1.5-2" in diameter and damaging wind
gusts up to 60mph. The main window for severe weather will be in
the 5PM to midnight timeframe. Although deep-layer shear will be
less than impressive for widespread organized storms, some modest
low-level shear and sufficient low-level instability may support
a quick spin-up Wednesday evening, especially north of I-20. Most
thunderstorm activity will diminish in intensity and shift north
of the Red River late Wednesday night (generally after midnight)
as the diurnal decrease in instability occurs and the front lifts
back northward.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
Favorable southwesterly flow aloft will remain overhead Thursday.
However, other sources of lift outside of warm-advection and
subtle mid-level shortwaves will be negligible keeping any shower
development more isolated to scattered during the day Thursday.
The best potential for scattered rain showers and perhaps a rumble
of thunder during the day Thursday will be across parts of North
Texas near the nose of better theta-e advection. We will be
monitoring decaying dryline thunderstorm activity out of West
Texas to see if it makes a run for our Big Country counties west
of Highway 281 late Thursday evening. There may be a brief window
for an isolated hail and wind threat in these counties.
A more robust mid-level shortwave will enter the Central Plains on
Friday increasing a belt of southwesterlies over North and Central
Texas. A moist and unstable airmass will likely settle over the
region east of a dryline expected to reside west of I-35 by Friday
afternoon. The better synoptic-scale lift will remain north of our
forecast area, so low-level convergence along the dryline will
likely favor more scattered convection initially (especially with
concerns on how cloud cover impacts overall daytime
destabilization). 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and moderate
instability will promote the development of supercellular storms
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps even
a couple tornadoes. The greatest severe weather threat will exist
north of I-20 nearer to the Red River where sufficient low-level
SRH will likely overlap moderate instability for several hours
late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected Saturday into
Sunday as a cold front enters North and Central Texas and
persistent shortwaves move through the southwesterly flow aloft.
An anomalously moist airmass will lead to efficient rainfall rates
and localized flash flooding, especially in areas that observe
multiple rounds of storms and training storms. Keep an eye on the
forecast this week as we nail down the areas that may observe
higher rainfall totals (potentially 3+") this upcoming weekend.
This active weather pattern will likely continue into early next
week with rain chances in the forecast Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026
MVFR cigs at 2-3kft now overspread all of the North and Central
Texas TAF sites. Expect low stratus to hang around through the
morning, lifting to VFR status by 19Z-20Z. Intermittent MVFR cigs
may still briefly overpass the terminals through the remainder of
today. Isolated to scattered showers may start to increase in
coverage later this morning into early this afternoon across parts
of the region ahead of a cold front that has shifted into parts of
western North Texas this morning.
This front will gradually push toward the I-35 corridor later
this afternoon, potentially shifting winds briefly out of the
northwest at the D10 terminals (especially western D10). This
front will also act as a focus for scattered thunderstorm
development later this afternoon and evening, thus a TEMPO TSRA
group has been added into the Metroplex TAFs in between 23Z-02Z
this evening. Some storms will carry a threat for hail and
damaging wind gusts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across parts of North and
Central Texas this afternoon and evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 65 80 66 / 50 60 50 20
Waco 79 65 82 65 / 40 30 50 10
Paris 77 63 79 63 / 50 60 60 20
Denton 77 60 78 62 / 60 70 60 20
McKinney 77 64 79 65 / 60 70 60 20
Dallas 79 65 81 66 / 50 60 50 20
Terrell 80 64 82 65 / 40 50 50 10
Corsicana 81 67 84 67 / 40 20 40 10
Temple 81 65 83 65 / 50 30 50 10
Mineral Wells 76 59 80 62 / 60 60 60 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
