Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
928
FXUS64 KFWD 201051
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
551 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances return today and Monday with the arrival of a weak
cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and
damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening mainly in
North Texas.
- Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail
through the middle portion of the workweek.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
An undular bore emanating from convection in the Big Country has
entered western portions of the forecast area during the past
couple of hours. There has been a non-negligible southwesterly
response in low-level wind fields behind this feature, and ascent
near its leading edge is causing development of isolated showers
and storms roughly along and west of the Highway 281 corridor
early this morning. How much impact, if any, this feature may
have on afternoon convection is uncertain, but the bulk of
activity is still expected to initiate back to the north and west
in closer proximity to the stronger synoptic scale ascent. Low
PoPs will be indicated west of I-35 through the morning and early
afternoon to account for isolated showers and storms preceding the
deeper convection later in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
The short term forecast period will feature decent chances for
showers and thunderstorms across parts of North Texas from this
afternoon into tonight with an approaching weak cold front and
mid-level shortwave. These features are responsible for ongoing
overnight convection well northwest of the forecast area as of
midnight, although this activity along with its approaching
cirrus canopy are a harbinger of our own storm chances later
today. The upper ridge axis that brought hot and dry weather the
past several days has begun to break down and shift
southeastward, allowing mid-level height falls to spread overhead.
This ascent could result in isolated showers and thunderstorms in
our west/northwest zones as early as mid-morning, but deeper
convection will be delayed until mid/late afternoon when
destabilization along the upstream surface front aids in
initiation.
With a very unstable but modestly sheared warm sector in place
south of the surface boundary, convective mode should initially
consist of scattered single or multicell clusters which should
produce strong cold pools, likely leading to loosely organized
linear segments with time which will surge southeastward through
portions of North Texas. Strong/damaging wind gusts will be the
main concern from any more robust convection, but a few instances
of marginally severe hail are also possible. Overall, expect
coverage of 40-60% across the northwest tapering to 20-40% through
the DFW Metroplex and I-20 corridor later in the evening. The
intensity of convection should tend to wane after sunset with loss
of heating and increasing MLCIN, but the synoptic sources of lift
should be sufficient to sustain some scattered less robust
convection into the overnight hours.
The presence of the surface cold front as well as any residual
outflow boundaries will lead to additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday which should peak with daytime heating.
The front will likely be stalled through parts of North Texas
with the greater instability confined to Central Texas, and areas
south of I-20 should have the greater storm chances through
Monday afternoon and evening as a result. Downburst wind gusts
would once again be of concern with any activity through this time
period. Areas behind the front may only see high temperatures
reach the upper 80s due to a combination of slightly cooler air
behind the boundary along with increased cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Slightly cooler and drier weather is likely to prevail into the
midweek period as drier east/northeast low-level flow persists
behind the front. Some low chances for showers and storms may
continue in the vicinity of the old frontal boundary with weak
ascent and moisture advection resuming, but mid-level ridging
should tend to build overhead with time keeping most of the area
dry and subsident. Highs should mostly be in the lower 90s through
this time period with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
While still above normal, these temperatures will offer modest
relief from an exceptionally hot first half of the month as we
officially move into astronomical fall.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
The main concern for the TAF sites through the period will be
convective chances from late this afternoon into tonight. Isolated
showers will be present west of the airports this morning
associated with dissipating convection from West Texas overnight.
New thunderstorm development is expected northwest of the TAF
sites after ~21z this afternoon which should advance southeastward
and affect portions of D10. The most likely time period for the
North Texas TAF sites to be affected will be roughly from 23-05z,
although convective coverage immediately near the airports remains
uncertain. Even if storms do not occur directly at the TAF sites,
impacts due to outflow boundaries seem fairly likely, and the
Bowie and/or Bonham cornerposts may also be affected through the
late afternoon or evening hours. Outside of convective impacts, a
south wind will prevail with a steadily thickening cirrus canopy
through today.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 74 92 75 / 10 40 40 20
Waco 97 76 96 75 / 0 20 40 20
Paris 96 70 94 72 / 0 30 40 10
Denton 96 71 92 70 / 20 50 40 20
McKinney 96 72 93 70 / 10 40 40 20
Dallas 97 74 94 75 / 10 40 40 20
Terrell 96 72 94 73 / 0 30 50 20
Corsicana 97 74 96 73 / 0 20 40 20
Temple 96 75 95 73 / 0 10 40 20
Mineral Wells 96 71 91 68 / 40 60 40 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
