Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
047
FXUS64 KFWD 031045
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms will affect the area from this
afternoon through much of Saturday, with a threat for a few severe
thunderstorms and localized flooding.
- A cold frontal passage on Saturday will bring a few days of
near or below normal temperatures from Easter Sunday into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
IR imagery indicates one shortwave trough accelerating northeast
through the Great Lakes while a second moves slowly east through
the Rockies. The Rockies system will be the main driver of an
active period of convection across North and Central Texas, as it
sweeps through the Plains late Friday through Saturday. Return
flow has already begun to ramp up ahead of the system with the
development of a lee-cyclone, surface front, and dryline, which
will advect Gulf moisture northward through the region over the
next 18 hours. A moist and unstable environment should be in place
as the closed upper low surges east and synoptic scale ascent
first arrives. Convection is expected to initiate across the Big
Country along the dryline late Friday afternoon. Cells propagating
east off the boundary would need to overcome a capping inversion
in the 850-700mb layer. This may keep coverage isolated to
scattered in the evening, but storms would be capable of both
damaging wind an large hail (the highest potential west of I-35
and north of I-20).
A weakening trend will then occur late evening as storms approach
the I-35 corridor, with the loss of surface instability and re-
strengthening of the cap. This may create a brief lull in activity
before a second round of forcing arrives in the form of the
trailing shortwave and attendant cold front. Redevelopment of
showers and storms should occur near the Red River in the vicinity
of the cold front overnight, with convection spreading southward
through the area Saturday morning as the cold front pushes south.
Time of day and storms quickly becoming elevated behind the front
will mitigate the severe weather threat, but heavy rain may lead
to localized flash flooding where previous storms have already
occurred and where training convection may develop. Because of the
progressive nature of the front, however, will hold off issuing a
Flash Flood Watch at this time, but keep an eye on additional high
resolution guidance as it is received. All showers and storms will
exit to the south and east Saturday afternoon as the front heads
for Southeast Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night Onward)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Cooler and drier air will spread in from the north Saturday night
behind the front, with Easter morning lows falling into the 40s to
lower 50s. Another trailing shortwave will produce additional rain
chances during the day Sunday, though these will be largely
displaced south of the area, with only low-end rain chances across
far southern Central Texas. Easter will otherwise be nice with
highs ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Weak ridging
aloft will create dry weather and a gradual warming trend during
the midweek period. A developing trough along the West Coast will
bring the next chance for showers and storms around the end of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
MVFR ceilings developed over the past few hours in the DFW
Metroplex, while cigs have conversely remained VFR across Central
Texas (including KACT). Will hence keep the forecast low-end VFR
at KACT with MVFR expected at DFW area TAF sites until 18Z.
The focus will then shift to potential dryline-induced convection,
which will encroach on western portions of D10 TRACON after 00Z
this evening. Storms may be on a weakening trend as they approach,
but will still include a few hours of TS in a TEMPO group from
03-06Z in the Metroplex, with VCTS beginning at 02Z. With lower
probabilities of evening convection in the Waco area, will limit
the KACT TAF to VCTS at this time.
A lull in convection will occur overnight, with re-development
expected early Saturday morning with the arrival of a cold front.
FROPA in the Metroplex is looking like 12Z Saturday, warranting
an extra line in the extended DFW TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon
and this evening west of I-35. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 59 69 50 / 30 90 90 0
Waco 84 62 71 50 / 10 70 100 10
Paris 83 56 67 45 / 20 90 90 10
Denton 83 55 68 44 / 40 90 80 0
McKinney 83 57 67 47 / 30 90 90 0
Dallas 86 58 70 50 / 30 90 90 10
Terrell 83 61 69 48 / 20 80 100 10
Corsicana 86 64 73 51 / 10 60 100 20
Temple 86 65 73 51 / 10 60 100 20
Mineral Wells 83 55 69 45 / 50 90 80 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
