Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
744
FXUS64 KFWD 110021
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
721 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few storms will diminish this evening.
Widespread cloud cover is expected late tonight into Saturday
morning.
- An active weather pattern will bring daily chances for rain and
storms to the region from Saturday through most of next week.
Strong to severe storms and localized flooding will be possible
Sunday through Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
No major changes to the forecast through this evening other than
to hang on to some low PoPs for another hour or so closer to the
I-20 corridor. A few scattered showers persist but will diminish
in coverage after sunset. Also made some tweaks to PoPs for Sunday
based on latest guidance. It looks like we`ll have activity move
through late Saturday night and Sunday morning with several hours
of lull in between additional convection later in the day Sunday.
Sunday`s activity is discussed further below.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
A broad fetch of deep layer moisture has enveloped all of North
and Central Texas today, borne northward from the Gulf by steady
southeast winds. A shield of stratocumulus this morning has mixed
out to scattered cloudiness as of midday, with a gradual increase
in sunshine expected through the rest of the afternoon. Isolated
to scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will
continue to develop across our Central Texas zones within an area
of modest mixed layer instability, aided by a weak trough in the
mid layers. No severe activity is expected this afternoon,
however.
A resumption of mild, cloudy conditions will occur late tonight,
continuing into the late morning hours Saturday. The large scale
upper flow pattern will become increasingly amplified from the
West Coast into the Plains through Saturday, with a pronounced
southwesterly flow regime becoming established across our area by
afternoon. With some modest forcing for ascent overspreading the
region ahead of a broad trough over the Desert Southwest,
scattered showers and thunderstorms should evolve across North
Central Texas Saturday afternoon. The highest pops will be
depicted over our far western and southern counties, where surface
convergence, upper lift and instability will be preferred.
Ingredients for active severe weather should be limited across our
region, however, with some weak capping likely remaining in place
through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
The latter half of the weekend, through the upcoming work week,
will feature an extended period of unsettled weather as mean
troughing persists over the Western U.S. Multiple shortwaves
will move out of the Southern Rockies across North Texas Sunday
through Thursday. Model solutions in the relative short term are
advertising an initial organized round of convection developing
over the Big Country region to our west late Saturday night,
moving eastward into North Texas by Sunday morning. High PoPs have
been depicted areawide on Sunday, though the bulk of the activity
will most likely impact areas west of I-35 prior to midday. A
secondary round of scattered showers and storms may also develop
east of I-35 later Sunday evening into early Monday morning. With
a reasonable combination of shear and instability, the potential
for damaging wind and large hail will exist primarily over western
North Texas during the day Sunday. Isolated tornadoes can`t
totally be discounted either.
Monday should feature a relative lull in convective activity, as
the region finds itself between upper level disturbances. Aside
from some leftover showers and storms over the eastern counties
early in the day, coverage across the rest of the forecast area
should be rather sparse.
A resumption of active convection will likely occur Tuesday and
Wednesday, as multiple shortwaves transit the region. With the
dryline remaining a fixture over West Texas through midweek,
thunderstorm activity is likely to initiate to our west, and move
eastward across North Texas both days. For now, scattered PoPs
have been depicted across mainly our western and northern zones
both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Instability, shear and lift
will be in good supply both days, and severe thunderstorms,
producing all forms of hazards, are possible. This is the primary
period to be prepared for active severe weather during this
extended period.
Model guidance becomes a bit more dispersed as we reach the end of
next week, though a generally southwesterly flow pattern and
abundant moisture should facilitate continued scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity.
Widespread multi-day rainfall totals at this time are not
expected to be in the range to warrant major concern for flash
flooding. In particular, the Euro Ensemble mean totals through
Thursday are confined within the range of 2-3 inches. That said,
precipitable water values will remain in the 75-90% climatological
category through the entire period. Any areas that experience any
slow, training activity will face the threat of at least
localized flash flooding. This is an impact that will need to be
monitored through the entire event, and enhanced totals (beyond
what`s expected at present) are not out of the question.
The combination of persistent low level warm advection, limited
subsidence and periodic cloudiness and rainfall should
collectively yield daytime highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This
is a bit above normal for mid April, but not unusual by any means.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
VFR prevails across the region at this hour with southeast flow
around 10 kt and some widely scattered showers ongoing. This
activity has encroached upon the D10 airspace but should
diminish in coverage over the next hour or so. Widespread low
cloud cover is expected later tonight and we`ll prevail MVFR cigs
after 9Z with a TEMPO for IFR cigs right around sunrise. These
clouds will gradually scatter through the late morning and early
afternoon with cigs lifting to around 3500 ft by afternoon. We`ll
also see an uptick in scattered showers through the afternoon
along with an increasing potential for TS. For now, we`ll keep
VCSH in the latest TAF but this may need to be tweaked in later
issuances. Southeast winds will continue through the period with
rain/storm chances increasing further beyond the latest TAF
period.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 82 67 79 / 10 30 50 80
Waco 65 81 67 78 / 20 40 50 80
Paris 60 82 64 77 / 0 20 20 70
Denton 62 80 64 79 / 10 30 70 80
McKinney 63 81 67 78 / 10 30 50 80
Dallas 65 82 67 79 / 10 30 50 80
Terrell 63 82 67 79 / 10 20 20 70
Corsicana 65 84 68 81 / 10 30 20 70
Temple 65 82 67 79 / 20 40 50 80
Mineral Wells 62 80 64 81 / 10 30 80 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Dunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
