Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
611
FXUS64 KFWD 080644
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1244 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday
with an upper low and the next cold front. Some severe storms
will again be possible.
- Dry and seasonable weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday,
followed by a warming trend Friday through next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
A positive tilt upper trough stretching from the Mid Atlantic to
the Deep South will continue dropping slowly southeast, shunting
all lingering precipitation east and south of the region. The
attendant cold front has also cleared the southern-most counties,
bringing seasonably cool air with current temperatures in the 40s
and 50s. Meanwhile, the positioning of a deep upper low off the
Baja California coast will place Central Texas beneath a zone of
weak upglide overnight and Sunday, keeping low clouds in place for
areas generally south of I-20 and a mix of clouds and sun for the
rest of the area. It looks like a nice Sunday regardless, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The Baja upper low will remain stationary for about another 24
hours, but will eject a lead shortwave which will bring a quick
round of showers and isolated storms Sunday night across Central
Texas. Storms will be elevated and sub-severe, but some pea sized
hail can`t be ruled out. The front will quickly wash out along the
upper Texas Coast, resulting in the return of light south winds.
This will keep Sunday night lows (55 to 60 deg) 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than tonight`s (40 to 55).
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
The low will begin advancing east across northern Mexico on
Monday, quickly reaching West Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture
return ahead of the low may lead to patchy fog Monday morning,
but the quick set-up doesn`t seem conducive for dense fog
formation. The upper level low will transition to an open trough
as it merges with a northern stream shortwave dropping southeast
through the Plains. The resulting larger scale upper trough will
propagate eastward through Texas and the Southern Plains late
Tuesday through early Wednesday, bringing with it another round of
widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may initially develop Tuesday
afternoon in an unstable, yet capped airmass. Thunderstorm
coverage is a bit uncertain and may depend on the strength of the
cap, which is forecast to be somewhere near the 700mb layer. Any
updraft which overcomes this cap will have a good chance to become
a severe.
By late afternoon, rapid development will be in progress across
the Big Country as synoptic scale lift becomes maximized in the
vicinity of a Pacific front. Convection should be focused along
the front as it develops upscale into a linear MCS while entering
the western zones Tuesday evening. Areas along and west of Highway
281 may have the best opportunity for severe weather when the
environment will be most unstable. Instability will be on a
downward trend as this line of storms encroaches on the I-35
corridor by midnight, which may mitigate the overall severe
threat, but damaging winds and a spin-up tornado or two may still
occur. This will continue to be the case as the QLCS continues
east of I-35 overnight into early Wednesday morning. Storms will
exit into East Texas by mid morning along with the front and
progressive upper trough. The fast-moving nature of the system
will lessen the overall river flood and flash flood threat, but
heavy rain could still cause flooding on a localized scale.
The cold front will have enough momentum to reach well south into
the Gulf, bringing dry and seasonable weather to the region
Wednesday and Thursday. Return flow and weak ridging aloft will
generate a warming trend Friday through next weekend, though it
should still be pleasant with lows in the 50s and highs in the
80s. The ridge will proceed to strengthen thereafter, which may
keep the dry and seasonably warm weather in place into the early
part of the following week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
Conditions have improved to VFR across the DFW Metroplex, but MVFR
may still linger across Central Texas and KACT for a few more
hours. Drier air behind Saturday`s front will eventually scour
the lower clouds, improving KACT to VFR by 12Z Sunday morning.
Light north winds will shift to the south Sunday afternoon as the
post-frontal surface ridge shifts into Louisiana. This return
flow may eventually bring another low cloud deck northward into
the area, but it would likely wait until near or after 12Z Monday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 59 82 68 / 0 30 20 10
Waco 72 60 81 67 / 10 20 20 10
Paris 73 55 77 66 / 0 30 40 10
Denton 72 54 82 64 / 0 20 20 10
McKinney 72 57 80 66 / 0 30 30 10
Dallas 74 59 82 68 / 0 30 20 10
Terrell 73 58 80 66 / 0 30 30 10
Corsicana 75 61 84 69 / 0 30 30 10
Temple 71 60 82 66 / 10 20 20 10
Mineral Wells 74 55 84 65 / 0 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/MB
LONG TERM....30/MB
AVIATION...30/MB
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
