Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
219
FXUS64 KFWD 250733
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
233 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very hot temperatures will continue this afternoon. An Extreme
Heat Warning or Heat Advisory is in effect for all of North and
Central Texas today.
- An elevated fire threat will continue today across Western
North and Central Texas.
- Low (10-25%) storm chances will return Wednesday afternoon,
bringing the potential for gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
06Z RAP analysis places a stationary front stretching across
southern Oklahoma toward the ArkLaTex, along which convection has
developed overnight. Showers may continue to develop and move south
into Northeast TX through this morning, but due to the very dry low-
level environment, most of this activity will remain virga. Gusty,
erratic winds are possible beneath these virga regardless of whether
or not rain makes it to the surface.
Otherwise, expect another very hot day today across North and
Central TX. While the mid-level ridge will begin creeping westward
today, its influence will only wane slightly, and winds will still
have a downslope component, contributing to compressional warming.
Thus, we expect all but the easternmost portions of North and
Central TX to exceed 105 degrees this afternoon. These areas remain
in an Extreme Heat Warning, while our eastern counties are in a Heat
Advisory. Regardless of the heat headlines in your local area, you
need to take this heat seriously by staying hydrated, taking breaks
during strenuous activity, and limiting time outdoors during the
hottest part of the day.
With exceptionally dry fuels, very hot weather, and minimum RH
values expected to once again drop to 15-25% across North and
Central TX, we will continue to have an elevated fire threat today.
Despite light to breezy winds (10-15 mph), large fires spread in
Palo Pinto and Hamilton/Coryell Counties yesterday. We have issued
another Grass Fire Danger Statement for today based on these
conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
By Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will have retreated enough to
allow a shortwave riding its periphery to approach North and Central
TX. This shortwave will help push the weak front in Oklahoma
southward through our area, bringing low (10-25%) storm chances
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning and lowering high temps
back to the upper 90s Thursday and Friday. Storms that form near the
front Wednesday afternoon may bring lightning and brief strong winds
due to steep low-level lapse rates.
Unfortunately, model guidance has indicated that the ridge will
return eastward into the weekend, pushing temperatures back up and
rain chances down. The CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day outlooks are
similarly unforgiving, indicating hotter-than-normal conditions will
likely continue into the first week of September.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
VFR conditions and south to southwest winds of 10-15KT will prevail
through the period. Although some short-term model guidance has
showers clipping the D10 this morning, we continue to expect any
activity that forms to be virga due to the very dry low-level
environment. Gusty, erratic winds are possible under these virga,
but any wind shifts will be local and short-lived. As such, we have
kept dry one-liners for this TAF cycle.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 82 102 80 / 10 0 20 10
Waco 103 79 103 78 / 0 0 10 20
Paris 102 77 100 75 / 10 10 10 20
Denton 105 80 102 76 / 10 0 20 10
McKinney 104 80 101 77 / 10 0 20 10
Dallas 105 83 104 81 / 10 0 20 10
Terrell 104 78 103 77 / 10 0 10 20
Corsicana 103 78 103 78 / 10 0 10 20
Temple 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 10 20
Mineral Wells 108 77 103 73 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094-
100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106-107-122-
123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fenske/Hernandez
LONG TERM....Fenske/Hernandez
AVIATION...Fenske/Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
