Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
963
FXUS64 KFWD 271910
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
110 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread hazardous travel impacts due to remnant ice, sleet,
and snow on roads will continue through today.
- Freezing fog is possible Tonight into Wednesday morning which
could cause light ice accumulations.
- Wind chills as low as 7 degrees above zero are possible in
western Central Texas tonight.
- Below normal temperatures will persist through the next 7 days,
but no additional precipitation is expected through the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to get several degrees
above freezing region-wide for the first time in a handful of
days, peaking in the 30s and 40s. Unfortunately, dense high cloud
cover that is expected to linger for much of the afternoon and
evening will inhibit efficient melting of the lingering ice and
snow/sleet on the ground. Roads will still be slick, particularly
for both untreated and smaller side roads, so make sure to
continue to give yourself plenty of time during your commute.
Anything that is able to melt or become slushy today will quickly
refreeze once again tonight as temperatures dip below freezing,
worsening road conditions.
A minute shortwave disturbance will continue to swing across the
Plains today, shunting a weak cold front south later tonight into
Wednesday morning. As this front moves through, moisture is
expected to pool along and ahead of the front. This moisture,
coupled with light winds overnight, will allow for freezing fog to
develop across much of the region Wednesday morning. Greatest
visibility restrictions will be across North Texas, though light
ice accumulations may occur on surfaces in any location where the
fog develops. All this being said, the Wednesday morning commute
will remain hazardous.
Outside of the fog, morning low temperatures will bottom out in
the mid teens to mid 20s, with wind chills ranging between 7 and
22 degrees. The Cold Weather Advisory for western portions of
Central Texas remains in effect from midnight tonight to 9 AM
Wednesday for those cold wind chills. A sunnier, warmer day is
expected on Wednesday afternoon, with high temperatures expected
to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s. More efficient melting is
expected during this time, but any liquid or slush on roads will
refreeze Wednesday night. Another round of freezing fog will be
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though this is a
little more uncertain as wind speeds will be a bit faster than
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
After the aforementioned shortwave (see short term discussion
above) exits to our northeast, upper-level ridging will build in
across the region. Expect cold sub-freezing mornings to continue,
with afternoon highs warming into mid-late week. Afternoon highs
will peak in the 40s and 50s on Thursday, marking the warmest day
of this week. However, another shortwave disturbance will swing
across the Plains and send another cold front south later in the
day on Thursday. Conditions will be cooler on Friday, with highs
only in the 30s and 40s. A digging upper low across the eastern
CONUS will shunt a re-enforcing push of cold air advection across
the region on Friday. Frigid early weekend conditions will be the
result of that push, with weekend morning lows in the teens to
near 20s, and Saturday high temperatures ranging from the upper
20s to upper 30s. Thankfully, latest model guidance continues to
come in dry during this time, so no precipitation is expected for
North and Central Texas when we get into those much colder weekend
temperatures. In the coming days, we will need to take a closer
look at an Extreme Cold Watch for portions of the region, as
Saturday morning wind chills will be in the single digits to near
0. A quick warm up is expected as upper-level ridging builds back
into the region as we head into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026
S-SW winds will prevail underneath dense high-level cirrus this
afternoon and evening. A frontal boundary will approach and move
through the airports overnight into Wednesday morning, shifting
wind direction out of the northwest. The front will be accompanied
by the potential for lowered IFR/LIFR cigs and BR / FZFG
overnight, beginning around 09Z. Worst conditions are expected
near daybreak through much of the morning on Wednesday when > 1 SM
visibility and LIFR cigs are more likely. ACT will remain south
of the worst conditions, but will still likely get down to IFR vis
and/or cigs during this same time frame. Conditions will be slow
to improve until closer to 18Z, when fog erodes and lifts back to
VFR. Northwest winds will persist through the rest of the period.
Some guidance keeps reduced cigs/vis a bit later into the
afternoon, but this longer stretch is less likely at this time. We
will continue to monitor the potential of being socked in for
longer and amend as necessary.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1049 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 23 43 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 22 43 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 21 42 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 17 41 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 20 41 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 25 43 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 20 41 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 23 44 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 21 46 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 18 44 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
Wednesday for TXZ142>145-156>160-174.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
