Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
985
FXUS64 KFWD 210724
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
124 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms will continue to move through
portions of Central and East Texas this morning.
- Additional storm chances return Sunday into early next week,
that may lead to additional flooding.
- The middle and end of next week including Thanksgiving Day
looks cool and dry, with highs in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
One last wave of sub-severe showers and storms will continue to
move across portions of Central and eastern North Texas through
the rest of this morning as an upper level disturbance rounds the
base of the parent shortwave trough (currently located over the
TX/OK Panhandles). With moisture still hanging around, patchy,
sometimes dense fog will be possible this morning, but will
likely not be widespread in coverage due to continued cloud cover
across much of the region and scattered showers continuing in
Central Texas. As the parent shortwave continues to swing out
towards the Midwest, the system`s dryline/Pacific front will sweep
across the region, bringing drier air and effectively ending rain
chances as we head into the weekend. Under clearing skies and
west-to-southwesterly winds, afternoon highs today will reach the
70s. Eventually, the system`s true cold front will move through
later this evening, shifting winds out of the north and bringing a
slight drop in temperatures for Saturday. Expect tomorrow to
feature morning lows in the 40s and 50s, with high temperatures in
the 60s to low 70s. The frontal passage itself will remain dry,
but may be accompanied by a few low clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Over the weekend and into early next week, another closed low
will swing from the southwestern CONUS up into the Plains. As the
low moves closer, a rapid increase in moisture advection will
occur, bringing a return to overcast skies by Sunday. A similar
pattern to the recent system over North and Central Texas is
expected, with a couple of minute disturbances ejecting out ahead
of the parent shortwave, leading to waves of showers and storms
starting on Sunday and continuing through Monday.
At this time, the exact severe threat remains uncertain as
instability within forecast soundings is lackluster, but deep
layer shear is a bit more impressive, so we will continue to keep
an eye on this potential as our short-term high-resolution models
begin to cover this period. More confidence can be placed on
another increased threat for heavy rain and flash flooding,
particularly for those areas that were hard hit by this last
round of precipitation. Latest ensemble and cluster guidance
continues to show most likely precipitation totals from Sunday to
Monday between 1-2.5", with isolated higher amounts up to 4".
Uncertainty in rainfall totals and locations comes into play as
guidance remains undecided on whether or not a surface low will
develop near our area, which would influence rain amounts even
further. All in all, the above totals may still change and be
refined even further in the next couple of days as more guidance
comes in.
The parent shortwave will eject into the Midwest as we head into
Tuesday, ending rain chances. Going towards midweek, the longwave
trough that has been in residence over the western CONUS will
finally move east thanks to a stout upper low in the northern tier
of states, and will shunt a strong cold front south. Currently,
the Thanksgiving holiday is looking a bit chilly in the 50s and
60s, but dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025
Cigs will likely continue to oscillate across the board between
VFR and IFR the next couple of hours, before they fill in with
MVFR-IFR cigs around 8-9Z. IFR should be the main category for
airports, with south-southwest winds AOB 10 kts gradually veering
more west-southwest as we head through the morning push.
Occasional minor visibility restrictions due to BR may occur
through the morning hours, but should be temporary and spotty in
coverage. Therefore have excluded any BR mention from the
forecast due to the amount of uncertainty, but will continue to
monitor the potential in the coming hours. Cigs will gradually
lift over the rest of the morning, returning to VFR with west-
southwest winds around 9-10 kts over this afternoon. A cold front
will move through the region later today, though the northerly
winds shift will be a bit more gradual, not occurring until
closer to 01Z. VFR and northwest winds will prevail the rest of
the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 51 68 51 / 10 0 0 10
Waco 77 52 70 51 / 40 0 0 10
Paris 76 50 67 47 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 76 46 67 45 / 10 0 0 10
McKinney 77 48 66 47 / 20 0 0 0
Dallas 77 52 68 51 / 20 0 0 10
Terrell 77 51 68 49 / 30 0 0 10
Corsicana 79 54 70 52 / 50 0 0 10
Temple 79 51 72 51 / 60 0 10 10
Mineral Wells 79 46 71 47 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
