Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
121
FXUS64 KFWD 161043
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry weather will continue through tomorrow.
- A cold front will bring a chance of storms (20-40%) on
Saturday, followed by a brief cooldown on Sunday. A few strong
storms are possible.
- Warm and dry weather returns early next week, followed by
another cold front around the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/
/Through Friday/
The upper level pattern will undergo a shift over the next few
days as the persistent ridge responsible for our recent warm/dry
streak becomes shunted east by an evolving upper level storm
system to the west. The system to the west is currently in the
form of an upper low over the Great Basin. This low is progged to
split into two separate low centers now through Friday, with one
accelerating northeast to the Midwest while the other drops
southwestward into Arizona. Neither of these features will have a
significant effect on our local weather over the next 48 hours,
aside from creating southwest flow aloft and a narrower surface
pressure gradient.
The result will be continued above-normal temperatures, a shift to
south winds, breezier conditions compared to the past few days,
and warmer overnight temperatures. There is a weak disturbance
over Mexico that will lift north across the area Thursday night
around the west flank of the ridge, but an increase in clouds and
perhaps a sprinkle or two is about all it will amount to.
Otherwise, lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s will be the norm
through Friday.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025/
/Friday Night Onward/
Both upper lows will be overtaken by a larger scale shortwave
trough this weekend as it drops southeast out of Alberta and
deepens over the Plains. A weak surface front will already be in
place associated with the Midwest upper low. The front will
sharpen and advance southeast on Saturday as the upper trough
deepens and propagates east. Moisture return will initially be
modest, but will ramp up Saturday afternoon as the front draws
near, with a swath of 1.5-2" PWats pooling out ahead of the
boundary. Though the strongest synoptic scale ascent will be
northeast of the region, there should still be sufficient moisture
and lift to generate a band of scattered showers and storms
Saturday night along the front.
The best rain chances will be over the northeast quadrant of the
forecast area where the highest moisture content and strongest
ascent will reside. That being said, with the stronger ascent
bypassing North Texas, even those zones will be capped at 40%
POPs. Lesser rain chances can be expected the farther south and
west you go, with much of the area likely missing out on
measurable rain. Severe weather probabilities remain low at this
time, but deep layer shear and instability will be strong enough
to support strong storms with gusty winds and hail. An isolated
damaging wind and/or large hail event, however, cannot be
completely ruled out.
All activity along with the cold front will push south and east of
the region Saturday night into Sunday as the upper trough heads
east (while further strengthening) into the Midwest and Great
Lakes region. Cooler and drier air will make for a pleasant Sunday
behind the front. A brief warm-up will occur on Monday as a ridge
passes overhead, but a progressive pattern will bring another
upper level system and cold front through North and Central Texas
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Surface winds will veer to the southeast today, with speeds
increasing slightly (10-12kt) by midday. A weak upper level
disturbance may bring some mid and high clouds this afternoon and
tonight, but a dry and stable atmosphere will shut off any
convective attempts. VFR should otherwise continue into Friday.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 67 88 71 91 / 0 5 0 5 20
Waco 84 63 88 70 91 / 0 5 10 0 20
Paris 86 64 86 68 90 / 0 5 0 5 30
Denton 85 63 88 68 91 / 0 5 0 5 20
McKinney 86 64 87 69 91 / 0 5 0 5 30
Dallas 87 68 89 71 93 / 0 5 0 5 20
Terrell 87 63 88 68 91 / 0 5 5 0 20
Corsicana 88 66 89 71 92 / 0 5 10 0 20
Temple 85 62 89 68 91 / 0 5 10 0 10
Mineral Wells 87 62 90 66 94 / 0 5 0 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
