Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 211106 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

12 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---None major. VFR. Northerly winds becoming easterly.

VFR is expected to prevail through the entire 12 UTC TAF cycle. A
gravity wave moved northward this morning and was the culprit for a
few showers near ACT and SW of the D/FW terminals. Most of this
activity has decayed and is unlikely to re-develop INVOF the TAF
sites---though some storms may develop later south of ACT.
Otherwise, northerly winds may turn to the northeast and east
through the day with speeds generally less than 10 knots. Mid
level clouds around FL100 will thin through the day.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

Low rain chances will linger across Central Texas today,
otherwise, it should be a warm, but pleasant day for most of the
area. Some areas of haze will also be possible across North Texas
thanks to fires across the Intermountain West and Pacific

Surface analysis this morning revealed that the diffuse cold front
that has ushered in drier air to most of the region was situated
along a line from Burnet to McGregor to Lufkin as of 230 AM. This
feature was slowly lifting to the north, however, its northward
progression should be halted later today as the main trough to the
northeast amplifies some and low level winds upstream become more
northerly---shunting the boundary back to the south. Until then,
there will be a risk for showers and a few thunderstorms near this
boundary and I`ll keep low PoPs across Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley. Most other areas will likely remain under the
influence of a building H5 ridge. If the H5 ridge builds quicker
to the east and southeast, it`s possible that little to no rain
will occur across Central Texas/Brazos Valley. Otherwise,
northerly winds should continue to support some dry air advection
for regions north of the front. With the dry airmass in place,
temperatures will likely climb quickly and top out in the 90s.
Across Central Texas, air temperatures may remain in the upper 90s
to near 100 degrees as little to no CAA is anticipated here. With
hot conditions in place, storms that develop may become strong
with mainly a downburst threat. Forecast soundings hint at some of
that mid-level warming and this may taper the vigor of convective
updrafts, so the downburst threat is conditional. The rain/storm
potential will decrease quickly after sunset.

Otherwise, expect hazy skies across North Texas as flow aloft
becomes more favorable for the transportation of a thin layer of
smoke from fires across the Intermountain West and Pacific
Northwest. Overnight conditions into Wednesday morning should be
comfortable with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/
/Wednesday Through Monday/

Wednesday will be a day of gradual transition in the low levels,
as the broad surface high pressure ridge over the area slowly
migrates east toward the Lower Mississippi Valley through early
Thursday morning. Wednesday will be seasonably hot with highs in
the 90s with winds veering easterly during the day, then to the
southeast as pressure falls increase along the lee of the
Rockies. The old surface front will initially be near the Colorado
River Valley during the day, before either losing definition or
moving back to the north as an ill-defined surface warm front.
Skies will be mostly clear through Thursday and though an isolated
shower or storm `could` develop briefly on the old surface front
across the far southwest counties, subsidence from the
strengthening upper high over the Southern Plains should limit
any convective potential.

Models are in good agreement with keep the upper high anchored
across the state and Southern Plains late in the week and into the
first part of this coming weekend, before slightly shifting the
center toward the Ark-La-Tex into early next week. This will not
bode well for any potential rainfall over the next 7-10 days, as
the high pressure cell aloft keeps subsidence across the area and
state with all systems being deflected well to the north. The
main theme will be above normal temperatures, breezy-windy
conditions, and mainly sunny. This is actually typical for mid-
late August across North and Central Texas. The hottest days will
be Thursday through Saturday when the center of the high is
directly overhead and subsidence is the strongest. Highs will
range between the mid 90s to 102 degrees. Deep mixing of dew
points outside of our far east and southeast counties, along with
gusty southerly breezes should keep any heat index values from
becoming overly oppressive Friday into the weekend. However, areas
along and east of a Bonham, to Terrell, to Corsicana and Hearne
line may briefly approach heat index values at or above 105
degrees due to higher dew points and will need to be monitored
closely. That stated, we do not expect widespread heat advisory
conditions moving into the weekend.

Finally, spotty areas including some of eastern Central Texas
counties and far northwest counties didn`t receive as much rain as
the remainder of the area last week. Small vegetation and grasses
remain drier across these areas and with the increasing
temperatures and wind speeds, will need to be monitored for at
least elevated grass fire conditions Thursday into the weekend.
With prolonged dry weather extending into much of next week, even
areas that saw substantial rainfall amounts will continue to see
continued drying with another potential increase in drought
conditions across the region.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  71  95  76  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco               100  68 100  75 102 /  20   5   0   0   0
Paris               91  67  91  70  95 /   0   0  10   0   5
Denton              95  66  95  75  99 /   0   0   5   0   0
McKinney            94  67  94  73  97 /   0   0   5   0   0
Dallas              96  73  95  77  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             95  68  98  75  99 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           97  72  95  73  96 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              99  73  99  75 100 /  30  10   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       97  68  97  73 100 /   0   0   5   5   0





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion