Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
745
FXUS64 KFWD 111027
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widely scattered showers and a few storms are expected again
this afternoon before diminishing this evening. More widespread
showers and storms will spread into North and Central Texas from
the west overnight tonight, a few of which could be strong,
before rain and storms diminish Sunday morning.
- Scattered storms are expected to redevelop across Central Texas
into parts of North Texas on Sunday afternoon into Sunday
evening. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with
damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a few tornadoes.
- An active weather pattern will continue to bring daily chances
for scattered rain and strong to possibly severe storms each day
next week, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today into Sunday night)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery early this morning
shows extensive low clouds have already formed from the Texas
coast across Central Texas to areas west of DFW. These clouds
should continue filling in towards the north and east through the
morning hours before breaking up around midday. Daytime heating
with highs reaching the upper 70s and 80s will allow for another
round of diurnal scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to
develop midday and continue into this afternoon before diminishing
during the evening. No severe weather is anticipated with this
activity, but some of the storms could have some small hail and
gusty winds.
More widespread showers and storms are anticipated to form along
the dryline near the Texas/New Mexico border later today as a 55 kt
jet max ejects out of northern Mexico. These showers/storms will
then spread eastward into North and Central Texas overnight into
Sunday morning. Models and CAMs vary widely on how extensive this
activity will be once it reaches us, ranging from the sparse
NAM/GFS to the higher coverage ECMWF/HRRR. Regardless, this
activity should weaken/diminish with time and eastward extent as
instability decreases to near zero towards the I-35 corridor. Even
so, a few storms could get on the strong side with gusty winds,
small hail, and locally heavy rain.
Dependent on how widespread showers and storms end up being on
Sunday morning, uncertainty exists on how much activity can
redevelop in its wake on Sunday afternoon. However, most guidance
does show redevelopment, and forecast soundings indicate MLCAPE
will dramatically recover into the 1500-3000 J/Kg range during the
afternoon, with 0-8km shear up to 60 knots and low level SRH
between 150-300 m2/s2. This suggests any storms that can
redevelop and sustain themselves Sunday afternoon/evening could
become strong/severe with damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes all possible. Global models and CAMs indicate the most
likely scenario is for activity to redevelop across Central Texas
on Sunday afternoon, which will be less impacted by the morning
round, with showers/storms spreading northeastward into parts of
North Texas later on. Other more isolated activity could also
develop across our western counties closer to the dryline during
the afternoon/evening on Sunday, which could also pose a strong
to severe storm threat, but this currently looks more uncertain
due to the morning convection. All showers and storms are
expected to move out of the area Sunday night as the upper wave
exits to our northeast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
The active weather pattern is expected to continue through all of
next week with daily chances for showers/storms and at least some
potential for strong/severe weather each day. However, Monday
continues to look like an overall lull in the daily activity as
our region sees height rises aloft due to shortwave ridging
between Sunday`s wave and the next one on Tuesday. In addition,
forecast soundings show a strong cap that will be difficult to
overcome from daytime heating alone. Even so, guidance suggests a
few isolated storms may form on the dryline across West Texas
which could reach our western counties during the late
afternoon/evening, with other WAA showers and maybe a storm or
two possible across the rest of our area. CAPE/shear parameters,
while not as high as Sunday, would be favorable for a
strong/severe threat if storms can occur.
Tuesday has more likelihood for a few strong to severe storms in
our CWA as a 55-60 kt H5 jet ejects out of northern Mexico across
Texas towards Oklahoma. Although the main forcing will be focused
to our north across the Central Plains and Midwest, and forecast
soundings show a sizable cap across our region, lift appears
strong enough for widely scattered storms to form on/near the
dryline during the afternoon/evening across our western counties.
CAPE/shear combo would once again be favorable for all severe
hazards should storms be able to form/maintain themselves.
Wednesday looks to have a similar scenario as Tuesday with the
main trough axis ejecting out of the Rockies into the Plains, but
like Tuesday uncertainty exists on how much storm activity can
form.
The rest of the week will see a secondary upper trough take shape
over the western CONUS, which 00Z guidance now shows ejecting out
into the Plains next weekend. This setup will provide two more
days of possible dryline storms on Thursday and Friday with low
pops warranted, although the lack of any notable shortwave on
Thursday likely will keep that day quiet. GFS/ECMWF show the
aforementioned upper trough pushing a strong cold front southward
across North and Central Texas from Friday night into Saturday,
bringing more widespread precip along with a return to much cooler
temperatures for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
IFR cigs have spread across all airports this morning per surface
obs and satellite imagery, and these cigs should continue through
14Z before some improvement to low MVFR cigs occurs. Low cigs
expected to break up around 17Z with VFR anticipated the rest of
the day. VCSH still anticipated at all airports this afternoon
into the early evening, with enough confidence for tempo -SHRA at
ACT. Overnight, a line of SHRA/TSRA will likely impact D10 and
based on the HRRR timing will have this line reaching DFW around
12Z with MVFR conditions. Strong westerly wind gusts are possible
with this line as it moves across D10 on Sunday morning. Outside
of any SHRA/TSRA, south to southeast winds from 5 to 20 knots are
expected through Sunday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026
Spotter activation may be requested on Sunday. Even if activation
is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 67 79 68 / 30 70 80 40
Waco 81 67 78 67 / 50 60 70 60
Paris 82 64 77 66 / 20 30 70 70
Denton 80 64 78 65 / 30 80 90 30
McKinney 81 66 78 68 / 30 60 80 50
Dallas 82 67 79 68 / 30 60 80 40
Terrell 82 66 78 68 / 30 30 70 60
Corsicana 84 68 81 69 / 30 30 70 60
Temple 81 67 78 68 / 40 60 70 60
Mineral Wells 80 64 81 65 / 40 90 80 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
