Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
472
FXUS64 KFWD 241103
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic storm chances will remain in the forecast through the
upcoming week including the threat for some severe weather.
- Most areas will remain rain free this weekend with storm
coverage expected to be low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
A warm humid night is in progress across North Texas with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and breezy southerly winds. A
surface low is located across far northwest Texas with ongoing
severe convection displaced well to our north across northern
Oklahoma. Despite strong instability across North Texas, the 00Z
FWD sounding and several ACARS soundings over the last few hours
show strong capping in place. With the strongest forcing for
ascent well to our north, we`ll remain quiet through the rest of
the night.
The ongoing convection across Oklahoma which is tied to a frontal
boundary will continue to develop south and east through the rest
of the overnight hours and spread into the Arklatex by morning.
Some of this lingering shower/storm activity could clip our far
northeast counties during the mid/late morning hours, however the
associated boundary will likely be the main driver of new
thunderstorm development into the afternoon hours. High resolution
guidance shows this boundary pushing as far south as the I-30/I-20
corridors by early Friday evening. With ample heating, it`s
expected that capping will be weakened significantly and low level
convergence along this boundary may be sufficient for an isolated
storm to develop. With large scale forcing for ascent largely
absent, probabilities of storm development during the late
afternoon/evening are only around 10% with slightly higher chances
across our eastern counties. While forecast soundings do show the
capping eroding during the afternoon and strong instability
present across the region, low level wind fields are pretty weak
suggesting that any isolated severe storms would mainly be large
hail producers. Storm chances would diminish fairly quickly after
sunset.
Saturday will feature another dryline setup across our far western
counties during the late afternoon with a surface low over the TX
Panhandle and warm front draped across southern Kansas and
northern Oklahoma. Large scale forcing again appears to be weak
across North Texas, but flow aloft does strengthen through the day
across the Southern Plains and severe storms are expected to
develop across parts of Oklahoma by late afternoon/evening. Most
of this activity will remain to our north and east with storms
organizing into a complex and spreading into the Arklatex after
dark. We`ll maintain some 20-40% PoPs across our northeast
counties late Saturday to account for this. Otherwise, an isolated
storm or two may develop along the dryline itself across our
western counties. We`ll keep PoPs at 10% for this activity, but if
a storm can develop it would likely be severe.
Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s both Friday and
Saturday with warm overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Any lingering storms Saturday night across our northeast counties
will continue to move east of the area into Sunday morning. Sunday
will feature a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Four Corners
region during the afternoon into the Central Plains. A surface low
will be located across Kansas with a dryline extending southward
into Texas, likely draped across our far western counties during
the afternoon. Similar to the previous two days, convective
development will be dependent upon breaking a capping inversion.
With the strongest forcing again displaced well to our north,
convergence along the dryline will be the main forcing mechanism
for thunderstorm development. We`ll keep PoPs at 10% on Sunday,
but again, any storms that develop would likely be severe.
As we get into next week, storm chances will increase a bit by
Tuesday and especially into late Wednesday and Thursday as a
frontal boundary slides south through the Plains and will provide
additional focus for storm development along with more upper
support from several passing shortwave troughs. While the severe
threat is a little more unclear by mid week, it`s safe to say
that there will at least be a low threat for severe storms during
this period.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Widespread MVFR cigs prevail across the region this morning but
these should be fairly short lived as a dryline advances into the
region and low level flow become more southwesterly. We`ll have
VFR returning by mid/late morning at all sites. The main concern
today outside of some low convective chances will be the winds.
Winds will gradually veer to the west through late morning then to
the north behind an outflow boundary/front this evening. There
could be an isolated storm or two along this boundary this
evening, but chances are only around 10% for the major airports.
Winds will become southeasterly again tonight with a return to
MVFR cigs by early Saturday morning.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 67 87 70 / 10 10 10 20
Waco 88 69 88 69 / 10 10 10 10
Paris 83 62 83 65 / 40 20 20 50
Denton 85 63 86 67 / 10 10 10 20
McKinney 87 65 86 68 / 20 10 10 30
Dallas 89 67 88 69 / 10 10 10 20
Terrell 86 66 86 69 / 20 20 10 30
Corsicana 85 70 87 71 / 10 10 10 10
Temple 85 68 88 69 / 10 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 88 63 90 67 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
