Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
983
FXUS64 KFWD 262222
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms will continue through tonight. The
severe threat is low, but a few strong storms with gusty winds
and heavy rain may occur.
- Rain and storm chances will continue Thursday through the
weekend, though coverage and timing will vary each day. Flooding
concerns may increase where repeated rounds of storms occur.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
For the rest of the afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible, mainly across North Texas.
Forcing over our area remains modest, so coverage should stay
scattered and somewhat disorganized. Lightning, brief gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall will the main hazards. Given the
overall slow-moving nature, isolated flash flooding will also be a
concern.
The more organized round of thunderstorm activity is expected
this evening into tonight as a lead shortwave moves out of West
Texas and into North and Central Texas. Storms have developed and
will continue to organize to our west late this afternoon and
evening before moving east into the forecast area. Current timing
brings storms into western counties late this afternoon - early
evening, the I-35 corridor around mid to late evening, and eastern
counties closer to or shortly after midnight.
By the time this activity reaches the area, storm interactions
should favor a loose line or cluster rather than a more discrete
severe storm mode. Instability will remain sufficient for a few
strong storms, but weak low-level shear and modest deep-layer
shear should limit the overall severe threat. Gusty winds and
small hail will be possible with the stronger storms.
The bigger concern tonight into Wednesday morning will be locally
heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, weak
storm motions at times, and the potential for repeated rounds of
rain may support localized flooding. The initial line may weaken
or fragment overnight, but rain chances will not end entirely. The
shortwave will continue moving through the Southern Plains while
deep moisture remains in place, supporting additional showers and
embedded storms into Wednesday morning.
A lull in activity may occur during part of the morning hours on
Wednesday, but lingering ascent, residual boundaries, and a moist
airmass should support additional showers and storms through the
afternoon. The highest coverage should gradually shift east and
southeast with time, but scattered activity may linger across much
of the region.
Low rain chances will continue Wednesday night, depending on the
evolution of Wednesday afternoon`s thunderstorm activity.
Similarly, we`ll continue to monitor for heavy rain that could
result in flash flooding.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Rain chances will continue into Thursday as the mid-week
disturbance slowly exits and residual boundaries remain in place.
The highest coverage should be along and east of I-35, while
western North and Central Texas begins trending drier. Thursday`s
thunderstorm activity could produce brief heavy rainfall.
Additional shower and thunderstorm activity on Thursday could
produce heavy rainfall, increasing the risk for additional flash
flooding -- especially in areas that received heavier rain over
the last couple of days. Coverage should become lower and more
focused across eastern portions of the area Thursday night into
Friday as weak ridging begins to build across western parts of
Texas.
A brief break in the scattered showers and thunderstorms appears
possible late Friday, but low rain chances will return over the
weekend as moisture remains in place. Another weak disturbance
will be approaching from the west, spreading forcing for ascent
throughout the region. Timing and coverage remain uncertain at
this range.
Temperatures will trend warmer late this week into the weekend,
with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s in many
locations.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Scattered showers and storms will continue to shift north of DFW
TRACON, but a second batch of convection over the Big Country will
spread east through the region this evening associated with a
shortwave trough. The latest guidance suggests potential direct
impacts across all TAF locations starting around 03Z (when VCTS
begins), with a TEMPO for TS 04-06Z. Storms may form a loosely
organized MCS, but modest instability and 20kt of effective shear
should mitigate the severe threat. That being said, some 40-50 MPH
wind gusts may accompany the preceding outflow. Activity will
exit to the east overnight, followed by a deck of MVFR
stratocumulus Wednesday morning. Conditions will return to VFR
around midday Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
again Wednesday afternoon, but probabilities are too low to
mention in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026
Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 81 68 85 / 90 50 30 30
Waco 69 80 68 84 / 80 50 20 30
Paris 67 78 66 81 / 50 80 50 60
Denton 67 80 66 83 / 90 50 30 40
McKinney 68 79 67 83 / 80 60 30 50
Dallas 70 81 69 86 / 90 50 30 30
Terrell 68 79 67 84 / 70 70 30 40
Corsicana 70 81 69 86 / 70 70 20 30
Temple 69 81 69 86 / 80 50 20 30
Mineral Wells 65 81 65 84 / 80 50 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
