Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
762
FXUS64 KFWD 122332
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
632 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering showers and storms will dissipate over the next 1 to 2
hours.
- Hot and humid conditions will continue on Saturday with highs
in the 90s and peak heat indices in the 100-105 range.
- More widespread showers and thunderstorms (60-90% chance) will
return to the area Sunday into Monday. Heavy rainfall and a few
strong storms will be possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Lingering scattered showers and a few storms will continue to
weaken over the next few hours and dissipate after dark while a
notable outflow boundary pushes off to the southwest. Northeast
winds will prevail behind the boundary for a few hours before
southerly flow returns overnight. This update will modify PoPs
through the late evening.
Otherwise, based on the latest forecast data, it appears that
temperatures and dewpoints will be a touch cooler than previously
forecast for Saturday which yields lower heat index values in the
99-102 degree range. As such, we have pulled the Heat Advisory for
Saturday. No other changes needed at this time.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across north Texas along an
outflow boundary this afternoon. Storms are not severe but could
produce brief strong wind gusts. Further south toward central Texas,
hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon. Temperatures are
in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
This puts heat indices between 100 to 103.
The frontal boundary should lift back northward into Kansas tonight
through tomorrow. This will allow southerly surface flow to resume
across north Texas and for hot and humid conditions to take center
stage. Chances for showers and thunderstorms should be minimal as
the upper-level ridge will build back in and suppress convection.
High temperatures look to reach the upper 90s with dewpoints in the
low 70s. This would push heat indices to between 100-105,
especially across the Metroplex. Anyone participating in outside
activities should take proper precautions to avoid heat exhaustion
by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the shade as
much as possible. Areas west of a line from Lampasas to Decatur
will be less humid so heat indices there will be in the mid to
upper 90s. A Heat Advisory has been issued for areas in and around
the Metroplex, where heat indices will be the highest.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
The pattern will quickly become active again for Sunday into Monday
morning as an upper-level trough axis will move to the Great Lakes.
This would place north Texas in northwest flow aloft with several
embedded shortwaves. At the surface, another cold front will move
into north Texas on Sunday morning which will substantially increase
chances for rain and thunderstorms. Storms will likely develop along
the Red River in the morning and slowly push south and east through
the day. Even if storms in the morning weaken or dissipate, a
second round could develop by the afternoon. Severe chances look low
at this time but localized flooding could become an issue with any
slow-moving storms or areas that see multiple rounds of rain.
The southern Plains should remain in a predominantly northwest flow
aloft pattern for the first half of next week. The frontal boundary
from Sunday should continue further southward on Tuesday and should
allow rain chances to be confined mainly to southeast Texas. Rain
and northerly winds should hold temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
for Monday, with some recovery for late Tuesday and Wednesday. The
return of southerly surface flow should allow high temperatures to
push back into the mid 90s with humid conditions for Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Convection has moved to the south and west of the major airports
this evening leaving VFR in its wake with winds recovering back to
south. VFR will prevail through the period with south winds around
15 kt. Some low cloud cover will spread north out of Central TX
late tonight with MVFR cigs expected to intermittently impact
Waco. At this time it appears these will stay south of the D10
airspace.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 94 78 90 / 10 0 10 60
Waco 76 92 76 92 / 10 0 0 40
Paris 73 91 74 84 / 10 0 30 70
Denton 78 93 76 87 / 10 0 30 60
McKinney 76 93 76 87 / 10 0 20 60
Dallas 78 95 78 91 / 10 0 10 60
Terrell 76 93 75 90 / 10 0 10 50
Corsicana 75 94 76 94 / 10 0 0 50
Temple 75 92 76 93 / 10 0 0 40
Mineral Wells 75 94 75 88 / 10 0 10 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kearney
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Dunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
