Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
872
FXUS64 KFWD 192257
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
557 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and isolated storms return to the region late Monday
through Wednesday.
- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve
late week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
After a cool morning, temperatures will climb into the lower 70s
under sunny skies this afternoon. An area of surface high pressure
is located off to our northeast and will continue to pull away
from the area later today resulting in easterly winds across the
region. Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies across
Central and North Texas, but overcast conditions are in place just
to our south. As low level flow become more southerly tonight, it
will tap into a moisture rich western Gulf and we should see these
low clouds begin to spread back to the north.
A weak disturbance will move across Baja California overnight with
weak height falls spreading into far west Texas. Modest isentropic
ascent will commence ahead of this disturbance and should result
in an axis of deep moisture oriented from southeast to northwest
through Central Texas. We`ll likely see low clouds spread into our
southwest counties by morning and scattered showers will develop
through midday. While we can`t rule out a few storms, most of this
activity will be higher based rain showers. There will likely be a
sharp gradient in rain/clouds across our southwest counties to
mostly sunny skies in our northeast counties which will result in
a gradient of high temperatures from near 60 to the mid 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
As the upper disturbance moves across Texas late Monday night,
stronger forcing for ascent will spread across the region and we
should see an uptick in showers and elevated thunderstorms late
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The bulk of this activity
should stay to the south of I-20 but we can`t rule out some
measurable rainfall as far north as the Red River. The threat for
any severe weather is very low given a lack of appreciable
instability, although the strongest storms could produce quite a
bit of lightning and perhaps a little small hail. Otherwise, this
precipitation should begin to move east during the day Tuesday as
the stronger forcing pulls away from North Texas. In the absence
of any clearing frontal boundary, low level moisture will remain
in place through mid week and weak lift will support some low rain
chances through Wednesday, particularly east of I-35.
By Thursday, we`ll see a setup more in line with a typical spring
pattern with ample low level moisture capped beneath a modest
elevated mixed layer to the east of a dryline. A shortwave trough
will be spreading into the Central Plains during this time and
severe storms should develop mainly to our north. With the
strongest forcing for ascent displaced to our north, it`ll be
difficult to get storms to develop south of the Red River with the
expected capping, but if one or two can develop, they would
likely be severe. As the main trough moves eastward, a weak
frontal boundary will slide south late Friday and should be a
focus for additional convective development. Right now, we`ll keep
PoPs around 20% late Thursday through Saturday and continue to
monitor for any severe potential.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
VFR and partly cloudy skies will prevail through the rest of this
evening before a thickening canopy of mid/high cloud cover
arrives from the southwest tonight. Showery precipitation based at
8-10 kft will begin spreading into the Waco TAF site by midday
tomorrow, but a drier sub-cloud layer to the north/northeast
within D10 should keep all precipitation as virga through the
daytime. Widespread cigs of 6-10 kft should be in place across the
entire region by Monday evening, with rain showers holding off at
Metroplex airports until after 06z Tuesday. A southeast wind will
prevail through the entire period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 73 58 68 / 0 0 40 50
Waco 49 67 57 65 / 0 20 60 70
Paris 47 74 51 68 / 0 0 10 20
Denton 46 73 54 67 / 0 0 40 40
McKinney 46 73 53 68 / 0 0 30 40
Dallas 53 73 58 67 / 0 0 40 50
Terrell 47 73 54 69 / 0 0 30 50
Corsicana 49 73 56 70 / 0 0 40 60
Temple 52 67 56 69 / 10 30 60 80
Mineral Wells 47 71 55 67 / 0 10 50 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Dunn
LONG TERM....Dunn
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
