Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
029
FXUS64 KFWD 042308
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal this week
into the weekend.
- A stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out each afternoon
starting Wednesday through Saturday (~10-15% chance) mainly
east of I-35.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Another seasonably hot summer day is in full swing today as the
mid-level ridge remains in control. Temperatures will continue to
warm into the upper 90s to near 103 degrees, but the dewpoints
will remain in the upper 50s/60s. This will keep the heat index
values only a few degrees above the actual temperature. Otherwise,
southerly flow will prevail the rest of the day with a mix of
daytime cumulus and high level clouds.
Little changes to the weather pattern will begin tomorrow and
continue through the rest of the week as the center of the ridge
moves towards the Desert Southwest. This will open the door to a
more steady southerly flow and increasing humidity in the lower
levels. Additionally, we could see a few diurnally driven showers
and storms develop across portions of East Texas and the Brazos
Valley tomorrow afternoon. Outside of the low rain chances
(10-15%), temperatures will still warm up into the upper 90s to
near 102 degrees in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
A split-flow pattern will dominate the rest of week,
characterized by strong upper-level ridging anchored over the
West/Southwest and a broad downstream trough across the East and
Northeast U.S. This will keep our area under persistent southerly
flow in the lower levels and increasing humidity through the
weekend. Temperatures will likely remain near or just a few
degrees above normal for early August with highs ranging from the
mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Heat indices may reach the 105-108
degrees by the end of the week and continue into the weekend which
will trigger Heat Advisories across portions of the region.
Outside of the summer heat, rain chances will remain fairly low
(less than 20%) Friday through the weekend. The best potential for
any decent precipitation will remain outside of our area as a
weak frontal boundary stays well to our north in Oklahoma.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
North and Central Texas lie between a broad Bermuda high to the
east and a surface front to the northwest, which will maintain a
10-15 kt daytime and 5-10 kt nighttime wind out of the south
through the midweek period. The typical diurnal fluctuation,
however, will back winds to the southeast in the evening and veer
them to the southwest in the morning. Otherwise, mid level ridging
stretching from Southern California to Texas will provide VFR and
overall quiet aviation weather through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 78 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 100 77 99 / 0 10 0 0
Corsicana 77 100 77 99 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 76 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
