Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
443
FXUS64 KFWD 241000
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
500 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another storm complex may impact areas near the Red River late
this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are the main concerns.
- Dry weather with seasonably hot and humid conditions will
continue the rest of the workweek and weekend into early next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Quiet, warm and humid morning across North and Central Texas with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the northeast to low
80s in the south. Much of the Red River counties saw significant
rainfall yesterday, especially Fannin and Lamar Counties, and
some patchy fog is likely in those areas through 14Z or so.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected across the forecast area
this morning into the early afternoon hours with temperatures
heating up well into the 90s. Dewpoints are expected to be lower
today than the past few days, which will keep max heat index
values down into the 97-104 range - so no heat advisory is
needed.
By late this afternoon into this evening, the ongoing
thunderstorm complex across Colorado is forecast to move
southeastward across Kansas and Oklahoma into northeast Texas per
much of the 00Z guidance and CAMs. Some of this activity may once
again clip our north/northeast counties near the Red River, but
the bulk of the activity is anticipated to stay off to our
northeast. Main impacts with any storms would be gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall, especially in Lamar County which received
up to 10 inches of rain yesterday per radar MRMS estimates.
However, storms will be moving at a quicker pace today versus
yesterday which would help limit any flood potential.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Rest of the forecast period will be dry, hot and humid as an
upper level ridge builds across the state. Highs are expected to
warm a degree or two each day with mid to upper 90s late week and
upper 90s to low 100s this weekend into early next week. As
mentioned yesterday, subsidence from the upper ridge overhead
along with dry air aloft will help to mix out dewpoints in the
afternoon and reduce peak heat index values. Even so, we will
likely get near or over our heat advisory criteria of 105 in
parts of North and Central Texas by this weekend and early next
week. One helpful factor regarding the heat will be the unusually
strong late June south winds anticipated Saturday through Monday,
which should help it feel not quite as hot. These strong winds
that could gust up to 40 mph at times will be thanks to a tight
pressure gradient across the Plains between a very deep, strong
out-of-season upper trough over the western CONUS and the upper
ridge across the South. After such a wet June, no rain appears
likely until the first few days of July when deeper Gulf moisture
may get brought up into the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Few/sct low clouds around 1.5k ft will affect D10 airports early
in the TAF period with MVFR cigs at ACT, before VFR conditions
return from 15Z onward. South winds 5-15 kts will continue
through the TAF period. Another TSRA complex may move southeast
out of Oklahoma this aft/eve but all SHRA/TSRA are expected to
remain well northeast of the Metroplex.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 95 74 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 90 74 91 76 / 50 10 0 0
Denton 95 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 93 77 94 77 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 95 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 96 74 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 95 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 96 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
