Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
209
FXUS64 KFWD 252334
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
634 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe weather is possible across parts of North Texas through
this evening with areas along and north of I-20 having the
highest chances for storms. Very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes will all be possible.
- An unsettled pattern will continue through next week with
additional storm chances expected across the region,
particularly Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The primary forecast challenge through the short-term period
continues to be the convective initiation potential versus
expected storm intensity, though confidence in at least scattered
development has increased near the Red River.
A quasi-stationary boundary across North Texas will gradually
lift northward through the afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface low
will deepen across northwest Texas with a dryline extended
southward through Central Texas. This will result in a favorable
triple point configuration near the Red River by late afternoon.
Strong to locally extreme instability is expected to develop
across the region with MLCAPE values of 2500-4000 J/kg and steep
mid-level lapse rates. While large-scale ascent remains modest at
best, the approach of a shortwave trough and associated mid-level
speed max will provide sufficient forcing for thunderstorm
initiation, especially near the Red River (triple point).
The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight areas along and
north of the Red River in a Moderate Risk, with far North Texas
residing along the southern fringe of this higher-end threat.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are now expected to develop this
afternoon into early evening, with the highest coverage near the
Red River.
Given 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear, storms will quickly
organize into intense supercells capable of producing very large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The tornado threat will be
maximized near the warm front where locally enhanced low-level
shear and backed surface winds will exist.
Farther south, storm chances remain more conditional due to
lingering capping along the dryline. However, the environment
remains highly favorable, and any isolated storm that develops
will have the potential to rapidly become severe.
Through the evening hours, storms are expected to track east-
southeast along and south of the Red River. With time, some
upscale growth into clusters is expected, resulting in an
increasing threat for damaging winds as the cluster of
thunderstorms moves from northwest to southeast. Storm chances
will linger in the east through the night thanks to a slow-
moving outflow boundary that will keep ascent over our eastern-
most counties.
The surface low responsible for the development of the triple
point will linger into Sunday, once again sharpening the dryline
in the afternoon. Abundant low-level moisture will be in place,
however, a lack of forcing for ascent will keep the chance of
storm initiation low. Some CAMs hint at a few convective attempts
across Central Texas in the afternoon, however, the capping
inversion will likely prevent the updrafts from rapid growth. For
now, we`ll maintain storm chances across Central Texas at 10-15%.
The odds favor a precipitation-free day for North and Central
Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. With a dryline persisting
through the night and a shortwave moving overhead, a few isolated
storms cannot be ruled out Sunday night into Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
The active weather pattern will persist going into next week as
large-scale troughing continues to impact the western United
States. This will keep south to southwesterly flow in the lower-
levels, supplying continued moisture into North and Central
Texas. The dryline will once again be draped from north to south
across the region, keeping the threat of isolated thunderstorms
alive in the afternoon.
Rain chances will increase on Tuesday as a slow-moving cold front
slides south of of Oklahoma. This front will supply strong forcing
for ascent and a blossoming of showers and storms is becoming
more probable Tuesday afternoon. Instability values above 3000
J/kg and strong effective shear will increase the potential for
strong to severe storms. Exact location and timing is unclear
this far out but areas east of I-35 may have the greatest threat.
The cold front is expected to continue sliding southward by the
middle of the week, ushering in cooler temperatures areawide. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s,
with 60s and 70s to finish out next week. Passing shortwaves will
lead to periodic rain chances each day, with an overall low severe
weather threat.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026
Main concern through the near-term is potential thunderstorm
activity near the TAF sites mainly between 01-04z this evening.
While convection struggled to develop farther south on the dryline
late this afternoon, thunderstorms are underway near a triple
point in Northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma which should have a
tendency to advance ESE with time. While the potential for
thunderstorms immediately at the TAF sites remains rather low this
evening at about 10-20%, impacts due to thunderstorms nearby are
possible as one or more convective clusters is likely to encroach
on areas just north of the TAF sites at a minimum. While a brief
wind shift due to nearby outflows is possible, this scenario is
too low of a probability to formally include in the TAFs at this
point. Storms may continue to impact arrivals/departures for
eastern parts of D10 beyond 04z as convective activity advances
into East Texas tonight.
Otherwise, another round of MVFR cigs can be expected tomorrow
morning before scattering to VFR occurs by midday. Outside of any
convectively induced wind shifts at the TAF sites, a southerly
wind at 10-15 kts will prevail with a few gusts over 20 kts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across North Texas this
evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 91 73 93 / 20 10 10 10
Waco 71 90 71 90 / 10 10 10 10
Paris 64 85 69 87 / 80 30 20 20
Denton 67 90 71 93 / 30 10 10 10
McKinney 68 89 72 92 / 40 10 10 10
Dallas 71 93 73 93 / 30 10 10 10
Terrell 70 88 71 91 / 30 10 10 20
Corsicana 72 91 74 93 / 20 10 10 20
Temple 70 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 67 95 70 94 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
