Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
489
FXUS64 KFWD 192319
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances return from Sunday into Monday with the arrival of
a weak cold front. A few strong to severe thunderstorms with
hail and wind threats are possible Sunday afternoon and evening.
- Slightly cooler temperatures with low rain chances will prevail
through the middle portion of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
High pressure, centered atop North and Central Texas, will once
again lead to well above normal temperatures throughout the
region this afternoon. Although the area of high pressure has
remained nearly stationary over our region, heights have gradually
been on a downward trend resulting in sub-100 degree weather
across a large part of the region. Today`s weather should be no
different as the ridge continues to weaken, evident by the 4dm
decrease of the 500mb heights over the last 24 hours.
Effective low-level mixing will keep afternoon heat index values
at or slightly below actual temperature, preventing the need for
any heat-related products. Unfortunately, effective low-level
mixing will result in afternoon minimum relative humidity between
25-35%. The threat for additional grass fires will increase this
afternoon as winds pick up between 10-15 mph. For that reason, a
Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon.
Overnight, tranquil weather conditions are expected to continue with
southerly flow in place. Temperatures tonight will be in the
lower to mid 70s across much of the region with the exception of
the DFW Metroplex, where upper 70s will prevail.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
A pattern change will commence on Sunday as shortwaves move from
west to east across the Central Plains. A cold front will move
south into Oklahoma, stalling along the I-40 corridor. A weakly
defined surface low may also develop through the day, aiding in
northward moisture transport across the region. With the area of
high pressure shunted south, subsidence will be on the downward
trend, allowing for a few isolated mid-day showers west of I-35.
By the afternoon, a trough axis will progress westward with
embedded shortwaves adding mid-level forcing for ascent. As
instability increases, scattered thunderstorms are looking
probable just west/northwest of our region. With general storm
motion expected to be south to south/southeast, this activity
will likely work its way into our region by late in the afternoon
and evening hours. The thermodynamic environment will become
favorable for a few strong to severe storms capable of producing
isolated damaging winds and hail. The greatest coverage of
precipitation will remain along and west of I-35. With the stalled
front nearby and the shortwave still overhead, convection may
persist overnight and into early Monday morning, however, the overall
severe weather threat decreases overnight.
On Monday, the frontal boundary will remain stalled across the
region, leading to additional showers and storms in the afternoon.
Exact location of where the storms may develop remains uncertain
and will vary on the placement of outflows. However, there will be
a potential for strong winds with any storm that develops given
the continued warm weather and dry near-surface air.
A shallow front may move into North Texas on Tuesday, helping to
maintain a low probability of precipitation generally west of
I-35. This front will once again lack significantly cooler air as
post-frontal temperatures will still be in the 90s across the
region.
By Thursday, ridging will once again begin to build across the
Southern Plains, deflecting any shortwaves away from the region
and reducing our rain chances to near 0%. This also means we will
begin to see an upward trend in afternoon temperatures as highs
return to the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows remaining in
the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
High pressure aloft will remain in control for another 18 to 24
hours, before weakening late Sunday as an upper trough sweeps
through the Plains and a weak cold front approaches. Until then,
VFR and south to southeast winds around 10kt will continue.
The aforementioned pattern shift will affect the local weather by
Sunday evening, with a broken line of thunderstorms initially
developing near the Bowie (UKW) corner post sometime near or
shortly after 21Z Sunday. This convection will advance southeast
towards the DFW Metroplex late afternoon into Sunday evening, with
the front being enhanced by southeastward-propagating outflow
boundaries. Recent CAM guidance indicates a weakening trend as
storms encroach on the Metroplex airports, due to decreasing
instability and increasing subsidence the farther south and east
you go.
With that being said, it is likely that at least a few storms will
survive, warranting VCTS from 21/00Z to 21/03Z for the extended
portion of the DFW TAF. Will also indicate a shift to north winds
during the VCTS period associated with the passage of the gust
front. Convection will continue to weaken Sunday night, with all
activity likely dissipating by 21/06Z or shortly after. Winds will
return to light south or light and variable for the rest of the
night, before shifting to light north on Monday as the front eases
through.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 99 77 96 / 0 10 30 40
Waco 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 10 20
Paris 73 99 73 94 / 0 0 20 30
Denton 77 99 72 94 / 0 30 50 40
McKinney 75 98 73 94 / 0 10 40 40
Dallas 79 100 78 96 / 0 10 30 40
Terrell 74 99 75 97 / 0 0 30 30
Corsicana 73 98 75 98 / 0 0 10 30
Temple 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 20
Mineral Wells 74 99 69 95 / 0 40 40 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
