Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
092
FXUS64 KFWD 270700
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
100 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow.
- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms return late Friday
through early Sunday. Rainfall totals are expected to range
from less than 1/10 inch in the Big Country to around 1 inch in
East Texas. A few strong storms with hail are also possible on
Saturday, mainly in Central Texas.
- A strong cold front will move through the area late Saturday
into early Sunday, bringing strong and gusty north winds along
with the coldest weather of the season so far from Sunday
through Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning will drop into
the mid 10s to mid 20s.
- Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. A brief
window for light rain to mix with some sleet/freezing rain may
occur late Monday, but this appears unlikely due to marginally
cold-enough temperatures and very light precipitation amounts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Cool night across North and Central Texas with currently
temperatures in the 40s areawide. Satellite imagery shows an
expansive deck of clouds around 5-7k ft has developed and
continues to spread across the region. These clouds will act as a
blanket and may keep lows from falling to the current forecast of
mid 30s north to low 40s south by sunrise. For now will keep
forecast lows as is given they should continue to shift
southeastward with time. Otherwise, today looks like a fantastic
Thanksgiving Day with highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s and
light winds. High clouds will begin increasing tonight ahead of
weekend weather system, but currently dos not appear they will be
thick enough to prevent lows from dropping into the mid 30s to
low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
Clouds will continue increasing and thickening during the day on
Friday as a weak shortwave trough emerges out of northern Mexico,
followed by a much stronger shortwave diving southeast from the
Central Rockies. WAA will begin strengthening during the day
across West Texas, with showers expected to develop off to our
west. This activity will spread into North and Central Texas
from Friday evening into Saturday morning while increasing in
intensity, with a few thunderstorms also mixing in. Additional
scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening ahead of a strong cold front racing south across
the Southern Plains. No big changes were made to precip chances
during this timeframe, and QPF still looks to be in a similar
ballpark as previous runs with less than 1/10 inch in the Big
Country up to around 1 inch in our southeast counties.
As far as any strong storm potential, guidance overall has
trended weaker with this system and shows less WAA,
destabilization and shear on Saturday. Even so, MUCAPE from
500-1000 J/Kg on Saturday morning may be enough for a few
elevated storms to produce sub-severe hail in parts of North and
Central Texas. By Saturday afternoon, SBCAPE values rise into the
500-1000 J/Kg range across Central Texas, which could also be
favorable for a few storms to produce hail and strong winds.
However, with the surface low moving away from the state,
tendency will be for instability/shear to weaken with time and
precipitation to move out of our cwa. Thus the strong storm
potential both Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon appears
low.
The coldest airmass of the season so far is expected behind the
late Saturday cold front, with lows dropping into the upper 20s
to mid 30s by Sunday morning. Strong, gusty north winds will make
it feel even colder with wind chills falling into the mid 10s to
mid 20s. Highs on Sunday look to only reach the 40s, with lows
Sunday night once again falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s.
00Z guidance continues to depict a positive-tilt upper trough
swinging through the southern Plains from Monday into Tuesday.
This system is anticipated to bring us some light rain Monday into
Monday night, although PoPs and QPF have also trended lower with
this system. A narrow window of opportunity could setup across our
far northern counties near the Red River late Monday for a mix of
light rain with sleet or freezing rain before all the
precipitation moves out of our area Monday night. However, given
the marginally cold-enough temperatures and very light QPF, even
if a wintry mix does occur there would be no accumulations or
impacts. As mentioned in previous discussions, a much better
chance for wintry precipitation will exist to our north across the
Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma where temperatures will be
significantly colder.
Tuesday morning appears it will be the coldest morning of this
cold snap with lows falling into the low 20s in our northwest to
near 30 in our southeast. Highs once again look to only reach the
mid 40s to low 50s by Tuesday afternoon. However, temperatures
will begin to rebound Tuesday night/Wednesday into the rest of
this week as flow aloft becomes southwesterly and southerly winds
return at the surface, with our next rain chances likely arriving
by late week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with light northeast
to at times variable winds up to 5 knots today, followed by a
shift to light southeast winds this evening/tonight.
Scattered/broken clouds around 6-7k feet will affect airports this
morning, but just cirrus clouds are expected the rest of the TAF
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 42 59 50 / 0 0 10 90
Waco 62 41 60 53 / 0 0 10 70
Paris 57 34 57 44 / 0 0 0 90
Denton 59 36 58 47 / 0 0 10 80
McKinney 59 38 58 48 / 0 0 0 90
Dallas 60 41 59 49 / 0 0 10 90
Terrell 60 38 60 49 / 0 0 0 90
Corsicana 63 42 63 53 / 0 0 0 80
Temple 64 41 63 54 / 0 0 10 60
Mineral Wells 64 39 61 49 / 0 0 20 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
