Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
982
FXUS64 KFWD 270535
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quiet night is expected across North and Central Texas with
low storms chances on Monday.
- Scattered storms are expected on Tuesday with some severe
weather.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
and Friday with some potential for heavy rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
A warm and humid airmass is in place across the region tonight and
it should remain quiet with low cloud cover expected to overspread
most areas by morning. Water vapor imagery shows broad troughing
over the western CONUS this evening with sporadic shortwave
troughs forecast to eject into the Plains over the coming days.
The first will spread into the Central Plains by Monday afternoon
with a deep surface low moving through the upper Midwest.
Widespread severe convection is expected to be ongoing well off to
our northeast by late afternoon as the system spreads into the
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a trailing frontal boundary will extend
southwestward into the Arklatex while a dryline spreads eastward
toward the I-35 corridor. Today looks like a day where the dryline
will actually make it into the I-35 corridor by late afternoon.
That being said, warm dry air will spread eastward and should
inhibit any convective development for much of the area as
temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. An axis of warm humid
air will be positioned across our southeast counties by late
afternoon resulting in modest instability, but forcing for ascent
will be displaced well to the north and low level flow should be
strongly veered. This suggests that any focused convergence will
be limited as opposed to the last few days. We`ll maintain some
low PoPs across our southeast counties this afternoon in case a
storm or two can get going, but overall chances will be 20% or
less. While instability will be strong, 0-3 km wind fields are
rather unimpressive suggesting any convection will likely struggle
to remain organized. We can`t rule out a strong storm or two but
widespread severe weather is not expected. Any isolated storms
will diminish in coverage after dark.
As the dryline retreats westward Monday night, warm humid air will
spread back across much of North Texas as the low level jet
strengthens to 35-40 kt. This will set up an axis of strong
focused theta-e advection across our north/northwest counties
extending from near Paris to Denton to Breckenridge late Monday
night. With the aforementioned frontal boundary draped near the
Red River, this sustained low level convergence may be sufficient
to fire off a storm or two overnight Monday night into Tuesday
morning across our northwest. With strong instability aloft, any
isolated convection would be capable of some large hail. Storm
chances will actually be higher later in the day on Tuesday as an
upstream disturbance moves into the Southern Plains in the
vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Thunderstorms will
develop during the afternoon and spread southeast with time along
the front across the eastern half of the CWA. Some of these
storms are likely to be severe with a large hail and damaging wind
threat. This activity will spread southeast with time,
diminishing in coverage Tuesday night.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Any lingering storms will continue to diminish overnight Tuesday
night with the frontal boundary now draped across Central Texas by
early Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely to develop again along this boundary in Central TX
Wednesday afternoon and we`ll maintain some 20-30% PoPs to account
for this. While instability will be lower, there will still be the
potential for a few strong to severe storms across our southern
counties Wednesday afternoon and evening.
By Thursday, a strong compact shortwave will spread out of
northwest Mexico and into far West Texas. With the remnant frontal
boundary lingering across our southern counties and a moisture
rich airmass in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage late Thursday into Thursday night
across all of North and Central Texas. The strongest forcing will
arrive early Friday with showers and thunderstorms continuing
through the first half of the day, including some potential for
heavy rainfall. The severe weather threat during this time appears
to be considerably lower than the last several days, but we`ll
monitor chances for greater instability to work northward into the
region. All of the showers and storms are expected to move out of
North and Central Texas by early Saturday with cooler and drier
air overspreading the region for the weekend. Highs on Friday and
Saturday will remain in the 60s.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Widespread MVFR cigs are expected to develop in the next 1-2
hours and overspread much of North and Central TX. These low cigs
will linger into the late morning hours before quickly scattering
out as low level winds become more southwesterly. VFR should
prevail around midday through the late evening hours before
another round of MVFR cigs develop Monday night. Scattered storms
should stay mainly east of the major airports through the period.
South winds 15 to 20 kt will persist through late morning before
decreasing a bit ahead of a dryline.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 73 93 72 / 10 10 10 10
Waco 87 72 90 72 / 0 10 20 20
Paris 83 70 87 68 / 60 20 20 20
Denton 86 71 92 69 / 10 20 10 10
McKinney 85 72 92 70 / 20 10 10 10
Dallas 87 73 94 72 / 10 10 10 10
Terrell 86 72 90 71 / 10 10 20 20
Corsicana 87 74 92 73 / 0 10 20 20
Temple 87 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 20
Mineral Wells 89 70 94 68 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
