Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
364
FXUS64 KFWD 171037
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening, though mos areas will stay dry.
- Daily rain and storm chances (30-60%) return to the region on
Monday and continue through the end of the week. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through
Monday, followed by cooler air mid to late week behind a cold
front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
A shift in the upper level pattern has begun and will continue to
take place through the rest of the of the weekend, as an upper
trough deepens across the western CONUS and a ridge strengthens
along the Eastern Seaboard. The subsequent lee-side troughing and
resulting tight pressure gradient will maintain the warm and
breezy weather through tonight. Afternoon temperatures should
approach 90, and a northward surge of gulf moisture will keep
tonight`s lows in the 70s. The latest suite of model guidance
continues to indicate a signal for isolated convection this
afternoon and evening associated with a shortwave embedded in the
southwest flow aloft.
A lack of a surface focusing mechanism (the dryline should be
well west of the area) will make it difficult for any convective
attempts to overcome a pronounced warm layer or "cap" at 700mb,
which should keep most areas warm and dry. That being said, it is
possible that an isolated storm or two may overcome the cap, and
any storm which develops could quickly become capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds. The latest CAMs have converged on
an area of enhanced moisture convergence roughly along the I-35
corridor, where 10-20% POPs will be in place late this afternoon
and this evening. Any convection which develops would likely
dissipate around midnight with the loss of instability and
strengthening of the cap.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
A stronger and more pronounced shortwave will eject northeast
through the Plains on Monday, which should drag the dryline a
little farther east to near the Big Country Monday afternoon. The
cap will still be well in place, but stronger ascent associated
with the shortwave and the proximity of the dryline should
increase potential for convection to overcome the persistent warm
layer. Coverage may still be low, but any isolated storm which
develops would have the potential to become severe. CAMs are not
too excited about development just yet, but the coarser scale
models have consistently indicated at least isolated development
east of the dryline late Monday afternoon. Storms would pose a
threat for large hail and damaging winds as they move east to and
across the I-35 corridor, eventually dissipating Monday night.
This will be a "hit or miss" scenario, and not everyone will
experience a thunderstorm (much less severe weather), but enough
of a threat exists to at least pay attention late Monday.
The main upper trough axis will slowly propagate east through the
Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing even better rain chances
to the region. Showers and storms will become focused along an
attendant cold front as it pushes slowly southeast through the
region on Tuesday, reaching the southern counties Tuesday night.
Activity would eventually dissipate overnight, potentially
bringing a brief lull in rain chances on Wednesday. The severe
threat appears fairly low at this time due to the positive tilt
characteristic of the trough, but there will be at least a low
end threat for damaging winds based on the amount of shear and
instability present.
The latest guidance now indicates that troughing aloft will
linger across the Desert Southwest within the southern stream of a
developing split flow regime, and the front may become quasi-
stationary somewhere near the southern border of the CWA.
Shortwaves emanating from the southern branch trough will keep
rain and storm chances going late in the week, with the main
trough eventually bringing at least one last opportunity for
thunderstorms next weekend. Multiple rounds of showers and storms
will make flooding an increasing concern the later in the week we
get, which will be another thing to keep an eye on over the next
several days. However it pans out, the front and continued rain
chances should bring a return to near normal temperatures for the
extended portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
MVFR ceilings have become fairly widespread across the region and
will hang around for most of this morning, eventually lifting to
VFR 16-18Z. Scattered warm/moist air advection showers across East
Texas should stay east of all TAF sites, but will keep an eye on
RADAR trends. Strong south winds will persist through tomorrow
with gusts to 30 kt late morning through the afternoon, and
perhaps again around midnight local with the development of the
low level jet. There is a low-end chance for an isolated storm
this afternoon and evening, but probabilities remain too low to
include in any of the TAFs at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026
Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports
of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 75 90 74 / 20 20 20 10
Waco 88 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 20
Paris 87 73 87 72 / 20 20 30 30
Denton 88 75 89 75 / 20 20 20 10
McKinney 88 75 90 74 / 20 20 20 20
Dallas 90 76 91 74 / 20 20 20 10
Terrell 89 75 90 73 / 20 20 20 20
Corsicana 91 77 91 76 / 20 20 20 20
Temple 90 77 91 76 / 20 20 20 20
Mineral Wells 87 73 89 72 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
