Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
762
FXUS64 KFWD 301836
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
136 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist through the week.
Increasing humidity may push heat indices near advisory levels
by Tuesday or Wednesday.
- Most areas will remain dry through Monday, with low rain chances
returning to eastern Central Texas Tuesday through Thursday as
Gulf moisture increases.
- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist, especially across
western North Texas, due to hot temperatures, low afternoon
humidity, and worsening drought conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
The subtropical ridge will continue shifting east toward the Mid-
Mississippi Valley through Monday while remaining the dominant
influence across North and Central Texas. Hot and dry conditions
will persist, though modest height falls and slightly cooler
low/mid-level temperatures should shave a degree or two off
Monday`s highs. Triple digit temperatures will still be common
across much of North Texas, with upper 90s more prevalent farther
south. Despite the eastward moving ridge, the better moisture and
convective signal should remain closer to the Gulf Coast and
Southeast Texas this afternoon, so no measurable rain chances were
included locally.
Southerly winds will be a little stronger this afternoon than in
recent days, while aggressive daytime mixing continues to lower
relative humidity across most of the region. Combined with very
dry fuels and worsening drought, this will maintain elevated fire
weather concerns through early evening, especially across western
North Texas. Apparent temperatures should remain fairly close to
the ambient temperature through Monday as afternoon moisture
continues to mix out efficiently, keeping heat headlines
unnecessary for now.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
The upper ridge axis will remain east of the region through much
of the week, keeping North and Central Texas hot while opening the
door for somewhat deeper Gulf moisture to spread inland from the
southeast. A weak surface low associated with a tropical wave will
move west beneath the ridge early to midweek. Guidance continues
to keep the surface reflection weak, but deeper moisture should
accompany the wave, allowing low rain chances to edge into our
southeastern counties from Tuesday through Thursday while North
Texas remains dry.
Temperatures should change little through the period, but
increasing low-level moisture may become more important for heat
impacts than the air temperatures themselves. Heat indices may
begin approaching advisory criteria by Tuesday or Wednesday,
particularly across the more humid eastern and southeastern
portions of the area. Confidence decreases somewhat toward next
weekend as guidance diverges on the eventual ridge placement, but
no clear signal yet supports a significant break from the
prevailing hot pattern.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the current TAF period with
mostly clear skies, southerly winds around 10 to 12 knots, and
occasional gusts to 15 to 20 knots through the afternoon. No
thunderstorms are expected near the D10 terminals or KACT through
the period, with the better moisture and convective potential
remaining well south and east of the region. Winds should ease
somewhat overnight with speeds settling around 8 to 10 knots
through Monday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
Paris 76 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 102 81 101 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
Corsicana 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 74 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
