Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
071
FXUS64 KFWD 151053
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front on Sunday will bring strong north winds with gusts
to around 50 mph. Unsecured outdoor items may be blown around
in the wind and driving on area roadways may become difficult
for high-profile vehicles.
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected near and west of
Interstate 35 on Sunday due to high winds and low humidity.
Extreme care is urged during all outside activities where there
is a potential for grass fires to get started.
- There remains a low chance for a couple strong to marginally
severe storms with a wind and hail threat in far East Texas
Sunday Afternoon.
- A late season freeze is expected for portions of North and
Central Texas Sunday and Monday nights.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
A strong cold front will sweep south through North and Central
Texas today, replacing the current unseasonably warm airmass with
a much colder, very windy, and much drier post-frontal airmass.
The large scale pattern remains straightforward, with a vigorous
trough ejecting through the Central Plains and strong pressure
rises spreading south behind the front. This setup will support a
rapid increase in north winds immediately behind the boundary,
along with a sharp drop in temperatures and a corridor of critical
fire weather conditions near and west of I-35. While most of the
forecast area will remain dry, there will also be a narrow window
for a few showers or storms to develop across our far eastern
counties before the front overtakes the warm, unstable air and
pushes the convective threat east of the area. In other words,
Sunday will begin feeling more like a breezy spring day, but it
will not end that way.
Cold Front/Temperatures...
The front and strongest post-frontal winds should reach Graham
and Sherman areas between 10 AM and noon, then progress into the
DFW Metroplex and nearby portions of North Texas between noon and
2 PM. Farther south and east toward Terrell and Waco, the most
likely arrival window is between 2 PM and 4 PM, with the far
southern and southeastern parts of the forecast area seeing the
strongest winds arrive between 4 PM and 6 PM. This progression
will disrupt the usual diurnal temperature trend, so many
locations will likely observe their high temperatures during the
late morning or early afternoon before readings fall steadily
through the rest of the day. Areas across North Texas will see the
most pronounced drop, while Central Texas may hold onto warmth a
bit longer before the colder air arrives late in the afternoon and
evening.
Winds...
Non-thunderstorm winds will be the dominant impact for most of
the area. Behind the front, a rapid increase in north winds is
expected with sustained speeds generally between 25 to 35 mph and
peak gusts of 40 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the entire forecast area through 1 AM Monday, and this still looks
well justified given the expected strength and duration of the
post-frontal wind field. Ensemble guidance continues to support
widespread advisory level winds, though a few spots across the
northwestern half of the area may briefly overperform if post-
frontal mixing taps into stronger momentum just above the surface.
While gusts above 50 mph are not expected to be widespread, they
cannot be ruled out entirely in a few locations during the first
few hours behind the boundary when pressure rises and cold
advection will be strongest. These winds will create difficult
travel for high-profile vehicles, especially on east-west roads
and for northbound traffic. Additionally, these winds will blow
around unsecured outdoor furniture, decorations, and trash cans.
Anything lightweight left outdoors today should be secured before
the front arrives.
Fire Weather...
In the wake of the front, very strong non-thunderstorm winds will
combine with relative humidity dropping into the 15 to 25 percent
range. Despite recent rainfall, fuels remain receptive enough to
support rapid fire spread, so any ignition in this environment
could become difficult to control quickly. A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for areas along and west of the I-35 corridor
through 9 PM. Farther east, higher humidity and low storm chances
should temper the fire weather threat somewhat, but the wind shift
and drying trend will still be noticeable as the front pushes
through. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged regionwide today.
A low-end but non-zero severe threat will also exist across our
far eastern counties this afternoon where a narrow ribbon of
better moisture may overlap the frontal lift for a short period of
time. Most of the forecast area should remain dry, but a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out near the eastern fringe of the
CWA before convection is undercut by the front and shifts into
East Texas. Damaging winds would be the primary concern with any
storm that develops, though overall storm coverage should remain
limited. By Sunday night, the convective threat will have ended,
but the post-frontal impacts will continue as strong north winds
persist and temperatures continue to fall. Lows by daybreak Monday
will drop into the upper 20s and 30s, and with sustained winds
still around 10 to 20 mph and higher gusts, wind chills in the
teens and 20s appear likely. The abruptness of the change from
Sunday morning to Monday morning will be one of the more notable
aspects of this forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
By Monday morning, North and Central Texas will be on the back
side of the late weekend system though the impacts will continue
to linger through the afternoon. Although winds should be lower
than Sunday afternoon, it will remain breezy with north winds
around 10 to 20 mph and occasional gusts to near 25 mph through
much of the day. Continued cold advection will lead to a cold
start with afternoon highs only reaching the 40s and 50s despite
abundant sunshine. Wind chills in the teens and 20s early Monday
will gradually improve through the day, but Monday will still feel
much more like winter than mid March. Any lingering fire weather
concern should be lower than Sunday, though dry air and breezy
north winds may still support localized elevated fire weather
conditions.
Monday night into Tuesday morning will likely be the coldest
temperatures of the extended forecast as winds gradually ease and
high pressures settles over the region. After that, the broader
pattern becomes much quieter as the upper trough pulls away and
ridging begins to build over the Southern Plains. Southerly
return flow should return by Tuesday allowing temperatures to
quickly rebound into the 70s and 80s by midweek with widespread
highs in the 90s moving in just in time for the weekend. If the
current forecast verifies a few daily temperature records may be
in danger. Dry weather is expected to prevail through the end of
the period with no meaningful precipitation signal at this time.
Even though the long term turns quieter quickly, fire weather
concerns may not disappear entirely. The combination of warming
temperatures, dry fuels, and periodic breezy southerly flow later
in the week may allow elevated fire weather conditions to reemerge
in parts of the area, especially west of I-35 where deeper mixing
tends to dry the boundary layer more efficiently. For now, the
main message is that the most impactful weather ends in stages
rather than all at once: the strongest winds diminish Sunday
night, but the cold and breezy conditions will still be with us
through Monday before a quieter and much warmer pattern returns
later in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026
MVFR ceilings around 1.5-2 kft will continue at all TAF sites
through mid morning before lifting and scattering from west to
east by 14-15Z. South winds remain strong early this morning, and
while the more frequent 30+ kt gusts associated with the
strengthening low-level jet have eased some over the last hour,
sustained winds near 15-20 kt will persist until boundary layer
mixing increases again and gust frequency picks back up by late
morning. Winds will veer to the south-southwest and then west
ahead of the approaching cold front, with a brief period of minor
crosswind impacts between 17-19Z. The front should move through
the Metroplex around 19Z and Waco near 20Z, bringing an abrupt
shift to strong north-northwest winds with sustained speeds around
30 kt and gusts near 40 kt through the afternoon and evening.
Winds will ease some overnight, but gusty north winds will
continue through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 34 52 35 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 86 38 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 75 30 47 28 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 76 28 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 32 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 82 36 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 80 33 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 83 36 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 88 36 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 78 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>121-123-129>134-141>146.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Monday for
TXZ122-135-147-148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
