Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
802
FXUS64 KFWD 260553
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1253 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas near/west of U.S. 281 will see an elevated fire threat
Thursday due to above normal heat, low humidity, and breezy
winds.
- A brief cool down will take place late Friday & Saturday with
a cold front. Conditions warm back to above normal Sunday
onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
A warm and breezy night is upon us as high pressure aloft holds
strong and the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of a
developing cold front in the Plains. Thursday morning lows in the
60s will be followed by a warm and continued breezy day, with
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Another
batch of morning clouds spreading in from the south will cover a
good portion of the area in the morning, but will scatter by
midday, giving way to a sunny afternoon. The warm and breezy
weather will create an elevated threat for wildfires late morning
through the afternoon.
A cold front will approach from the north Thursday night but
should remain north of the Red River until Friday morning. This
will ensure another warm and breezy night with lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
A shortwave rounding the northern periphery of our upper ridge
combined with a deepening upper trough along the East Coast will
drive a cold front south through North and Central Texas on
Friday. The front will cross the Red River shortly after daybreak,
continue south through the day, eventually clearing the southern-
most counties around sunset. Compressional warming ahead of the
front may need to be taken into consideration for high
temperatures across Central Texas, whereas cold air advection will
have the reverse effect across the northwest counties. This will
lead to a distinctive north-south high temperature gradient and an
abnormal diurnal temperature curve. Highs will ultimately range
from the 60s in the northwest to the mid and upper 80s in southern
Central Texas.
Windy weather behind the front will create an elevated wildfire
threat Friday afternoon, particularly across the northwest where
the driest conditions will be. A few post-frontal rain showers are
a possibility Friday evening as the weak shortwave continues
around the northeast flank of the ridge, but rainfall totals will
likely range from a trace to a tenth of an inch. A short period of
below normal temperatures will follow starting Friday night, as
lows dip into the 40s and 50s and Saturday highs remain
predominantly in the 60s. Mostly cloudy conditions and a modest
northeast breeze may make Saturday feel even cooler. Skies will
clear and winds will weaken Saturday night as temperatures fall
into the upper 40s to middle 50s.
A warming trend will begin on Sunday as return flow develops and
temperatures climb well into the 80s. Temperatures will remain
well above normal through at least Tuesday, before an upper
trough, the next cold front, and perhaps some better rain chances
arrive during the middle to latter part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Low clouds have rapidly developed across South Central and
Southeast Texas, and will be ushered north again overnight by 35kt
925mb winds. This swath of stratocumulus should reach KACT 08-10Z
and the DFW Metroplex 11-13Z. These clouds may be scattered in
nature for the first hour or so, but should thicken enough to
produce an MVFR ceiling for a few hours at all locations. Based on
the northward speed of these clouds, will bump up the onset by an
hour at KACT to 10Z, and the Metroplex 12Z. Cigs will scatter
16-18Z, giving way to VFR and breezy conditions, with south winds
of 15-20 kt (gusts 25-30kt) Thursday afternoon.
A repeat of breezy south winds and a northward-spreading low cloud
deck is expected Thursday night into Friday morning. A wind shift
will occur on Friday as a cold front arrives, which will need to
be addressed in later forecasts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 63 76 52 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 87 63 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 85 61 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 88 61 73 47 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 88 62 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 89 64 77 54 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 88 62 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 89 63 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 89 62 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 90 60 75 48 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
