Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
525
FXUS64 KFWD 160551
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across Central
Texas this afternoon with coverage of 20-30%.
- Hot and humid weather will prevail during the middle of this
week, with heat index values near or exceeding 105 on Wednesday
and Thursday.
- The arrival of another front late Thursday and Friday will bring
additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the
area for the end of the workweek and the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
A diffuse surface frontal zone which brought active weather to the
area the past few days will retreat northward as a warm front
today. The return to southeasterly low-lvel flow and warm/moist
advection will support a fairly widespread stratus intrusion
through the morning hours with even some patchy fog possible where
pooled moisture will be concentrated near this old surface
boundary. Steady clearing can be expected through the morning and
early afternoon, with a 20-30% chance for showers and
thunderstorms across southeastern portions of Central Texas. This
will be due to weak ascent on the outer fringes of a gradually
deepening upper low off the Texas coast which continues to become
more tropical in nature. The bulk of the precip through the short
term period will remain south of the CWA, confined to areas in
much closer proximity to the core of this low. The rest of the
forecast area will remain dry today with highs in the upper 80s
and lower 90s, while maximum heat index values climb to 94-98
degrees.
As the compact upper low traverses the Texas Gulf coast through
the midweek period, we will largely remain subsident on its
northern periphery on Wednesday with minimal rain chances within
the CWA. The main story will instead be heat and humidity as
low/mid 70 dewpoints are consistently resupplied within a
favorable southerly fetch. This will likely result in heat index
values of 100-105 Wednesday afternoon as high temperatures climb
into the low/mid 90s while dewpoints struggle to mix below 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Oppressive heat and humidity appears increasingly likely by
Thursday as dewpoints should hold in the low to mid 70s even
through peak heating while highs climb into the mid and upper
90s. This may be our first day of widespread heat index values
exceeding 105 degrees, barring any interference from residual
cloud cover from the nearby departing upper low. As this low
pressure system vacates the area to the east, a slow-moving
frontal boundary will sag southward towards North Texas by
Thursday night, and this feature is likely to be accompanied by
widespread convective activity. Threats for strong wind gusts and
heavy rainfall/flooding should materialize overnight into Friday
should this scenario unfold as currently projected. This would
also knock temperatures down by 5-10 degrees to end the workweek
and begin next weekend, with highs unlikely to surpass 90 degrees
for any area affected by rainfall on Friday. The eventual
evolution of this boundary is still unclear, but if it does indeed
stall through the forecast area, then additional scattered
convection would be a possibility through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
A return to ESE low-level flow will allow for development of
widespread low stratus this morning mainly at MVFR heights, with
a small window of IFR conditions possible through daybreak. Some
patchy fog is also a possibility, although this is more likely
across outlying areas removed from the airports themselves. A
gradual improvement to VFR will occur by late morning which will
then prevail into Tuesday night. Another stratus intrusion is
forecast for Wednesday morning, and this has been introduced in
the extended DFW TAF. All precipitation through the period is
expected to remain south of the TAF sites.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 84 72 90 75 / 40 20 0 0
Waco 81 72 87 73 / 70 30 10 0
Paris 80 69 86 71 / 30 10 0 0
Denton 85 69 88 73 / 20 10 0 0
McKinney 82 70 88 73 / 30 10 0 0
Dallas 85 73 90 75 / 40 20 0 0
Terrell 83 70 88 72 / 50 20 0 0
Corsicana 82 73 89 73 / 70 20 10 0
Temple 84 72 87 73 / 80 20 20 0
Mineral Wells 84 68 89 71 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
