Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
027
FXUS64 KFWD 041838
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
138 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal this week
into the weekend.
- A stray shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out each afternoon
starting Wednesday through Saturday (~10-15% chance) mainly
east of I-35.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
Another seasonably hot summer day is in full swing today as the
mid-level ridge remains in control. Temperatures will continue to
warm into the upper 90s to near 103 degrees, but the dewpoints
will remain in the upper 50s/60s. This will keep the heat index
values only a few degrees above the actual temperature. Otherwise,
southerly flow will prevail the rest of the day with a mix of
daytime cumulus and high level clouds.
Little changes to the weather pattern will begin tomorrow and
continue through the rest of the week as the center of the ridge
moves towards the Desert Southwest. This will open the door to a
more steady southerly flow and increasing humidity in the lower
levels. Additionally, we could see a few diurnally driven showers
and storms develop across portions of East Texas and the Brazos
Valley tomorrow afternoon. Outside of the low rain chances
(10-15%), temperatures will still warm up into the upper 90s to
near 102 degrees in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
A split-flow pattern will dominate the rest of week,
characterized by strong upper-level ridging anchored over the
West/Southwest and a broad downstream trough across the East and
Northeast U.S. This will keep our area under persistent southerly
flow in the lower levels and increasing humidity through the
weekend. Temperatures will likely remain near or just a few
degrees above normal for early August with highs ranging from the
mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Heat indices may reach the 105-108
degrees by the end of the week and continue into the weekend which
will trigger Heat Advisories across portions of the region.
Outside of the summer heat, rain chances will remain fairly low
(less than 20%) Friday through the weekend. The best potential for
any decent precipitation will remain outside of our area as a
weak frontal boundary stays well to our north in Oklahoma.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026
VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon with
south/southwesterly winds around 11 kts or less. No significant
aviation concerns are expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 100 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 98 76 98 77 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 102 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 100 81 102 81 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 10 0
Corsicana 98 77 100 77 / 0 0 10 0
Temple 100 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 100 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
