Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
063
FXUS64 KFWD 141745
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
Texas through tomorrow evening.
- Hot and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the
work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Mid-level riding continues to influence the weather across the
region, evident by the overall lack of rainfall and widespread
triple digit heat. Today, expect afternoon temperatures to range
from the upper 90s to around 103 degrees. Given this afternoon`s
moisture, heat index values will range from around 101 to 106
degrees. The highest heat index values are expected mainly along
and east of the I-35 corridor, where a Heat Advisory is now in
effect.
Moisture content today will be highest across the Brazos Valley,
where a few showers and storms may develop this afternoon. Overall
coverage of precipitation will remain low -- 10% at best.
Nonetheless, if a storm is able to develop, gusty outflow winds
and lightning will be the main hazards.
Tonight, fairly warm weather conditions are expected with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s across the region. The
exception will be the immediate DFW metroplex, where temperatures
will likely stay in the lower 80s.
Tomorrow, weather conditions will be similar to today with
afternoon temperatures mostly in the triple digits. Heat index
values will be similar to today, therefore, the Heat Advisory has
been extended through Tuesday evening. A few showers and storms
may once again develop across the Brazos Valley, with overall
coverage expected to remain low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Ridging across the southeastern US will slowly expand westward
through the middle of the week, ensuring we keep our well above
normal temperatures through the weekend. Highs each day will stay
in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with heat index values
between 100-105 degrees. A tropical wave will round the base of
the ridge, moving westward across the Gulf. Latest model guidance
steers this tropical wave north across the Lower Mississippi River
valley, keeping our region impact free.
By the weekend, a longwave trough across the western CONUS will
slowly shift eastward, however, the competing ridge to our east
will keep our region hot and mostly dry. With southwesterly flow
in the mid-levels, some guidance members have a series of
shortwave moving across the region with low rain chances mainly
confined to our western-most counties. Confidence in any
precipitation this weekend or next week remains low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
VFR skies and southerly winds continue across North and Central
Texas. Afternoon cumulus clouds are now in the process of
developing, continuing through around sunset. A few showers and
storms may develop over CQY, however, direct impacts to D10 or
KACT are not expected.
Overnight, all low clouds will remain well south of our region
leading to no impacts at any of the terminal sites. Similar to
today, afternoon winds tomorrow will remain mainly out of the
south between 10-13 kts.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
Denton 78 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 102 80 101 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 100 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 74 102 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
