Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
771
FXUS64 KFWD 130622
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1222 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain and a few thunderstorms are expected late Friday
night and Saturday across most of North and Central Texas.
- Patchy fog will be possible in the Brazos Valley early Friday
morning.
- Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough over Southern
California extending into the Eastern Pacific late tonight. This
system is expected to spread eastward over the next 24 hours and
will bring North Texas some much needed rainfall by Saturday.
Ahead of the trough, widespread high clouds continue to stream
into the state and we`ll steadily see an increase in cloud cover
across the region through the day Friday. Meanwhile, as surface
pressures fall across West Texas later today, low level southerly
flow will strengthen and begin to pull deeper moisture northward.
Dewpoints will gradually climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s by
this afternoon which will be a notable increase over the last
24-36 hours. Modest isentropic ascent in the 950-800 mb layer is
already occurring across North Texas and may actually lead to a
few light radar returns north of I-20 Friday morning, but this
band of low level warm advection will shift north into Oklahoma
around midday and any light rain should gradually lift northward
as well. Friday should be mostly quiet across the region with
clouds increasing and temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and
lower 80s.
By tonight (Fri night), strong height falls will begin to spread
into West Texas ahead of the upper trough and widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late evening
hours well to our west. As strong forcing for ascent overspreads
North Texas after midnight, we`ll gradually see showers and
thunderstorms move into our west/northwest counties through the
late overnight. Areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to increase across most of North and Central Texas
through the day Saturday as the upper trough continues eastward.
While most areas will pick up beneficial rainfall, amounts will
generally vary from around 1/2 inch in our southwest to around 1.5
inches in our northeast counties. Some isolated spots will pick up
more than 2 inches in areas that see training convective bands,
but the overall threat for flash flooding is low given the speed
of the system and the overall recent lack of rainfall.
There will be a threat for a few strong storms on Saturday despite
generally weak instability. Wind fields will be sufficiently
strong to produce long straight hodographs, especially south of
I-20. This could result in a few instances of hail or gusty winds
with the stronger convective activity. All of these showers and
storms will move east of the area Saturday night with clearing
gradually occurring into Sunday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Beyond the Saturday system, a quiet weather pattern is shaping up
for the latter half of the weekend and much of next week. A deep
upper trough will reside over the western CONUS through mid week
with a series of disturbances passing well to our north. North
Texas will remain on the southern periphery of the storm track
keeping things mainly dry and breezy through the middle part of
the week. With temperatures expected to continue to run 15 to 20
degrees above normal and afternoon RH values dropping to 20% or
less, we`ll have to keep an eye on an uptick in fire activity,
particularly west of I-35 Wednesday and Thursday. Recent rainfall
(Saturday) may help mitigate this threat a bit, but we`ll continue
to monitor over the coming days.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
VFR will generally prevail through much of the period with an
increase in high cloud cover expected through the day. South winds
around 10 kt are expected but will increase Friday night into
Saturday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
approach the area late Friday night and will prevail across the
region on Saturday just beyond the current TAF period. We`ll
introduce a VCSH at DFW by 10Z Saturday with BKN/OVC011 cigs.
Poor flying conditions are expected most of the day Saturday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 55 79 62 / 0 0 10 60
Waco 78 57 78 62 / 0 0 0 40
Paris 69 49 74 59 / 0 10 20 50
Denton 73 53 79 59 / 0 0 20 70
McKinney 71 53 78 61 / 0 10 20 60
Dallas 75 56 79 62 / 0 0 10 60
Terrell 73 54 79 61 / 0 0 10 50
Corsicana 75 58 80 63 / 0 0 10 30
Temple 79 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 40
Mineral Wells 77 54 80 59 / 0 0 10 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
