Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
318
FXUS64 KFWD 211952
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
252 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening with the
arrival of a weak cold front. There will be a continued threat
of strong to damaging downburst winds, as well as hail.
- Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will
prevail through the remainder of the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Scattered thunderstorm activity is ongoing across Central Texas
along an outflow boundary generated from this morning`s
thunderstorm complex in the Arklatex region. With strongly buoyant
parcels, vigorous updrafts have been able to develop, generating
isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds. As this
activity continues to move south, expect a similar threat through
the next few hours.
The true front is still lagging behind this activity with the
latest surface analysis placing the front just northwest of our
region. The front will continue to progress southward through the
rest of the afternoon with the potential for additional
thunderstorm development along the front. Similar to the
environment across Central Texas, there will be a threat for
strong to marginally severe storms capable of strong winds and
small hail. Overall, coverage should remain scattered, with
probabilities around 20-30% across North Texas. Storm chances will
continue to shift south through the evening, gradually decreasing
as daytime instability is lost. Most convection should dissipate
tonight, leaving mainly dry conditions overnight.
A drier airmass will begin filtering into North Texas on Tuesday
as northeast winds become established behind the front. The deeper
moisture axis will become displaced toward West Texas,
substantially reducing rain chances across most of the forecast
area. A few showers or storms may still develop Tuesday afternoon
near and west of HWY 281 where better moisture remains, but most
locations will remain dry.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Predominantly dry weather is forecast from midweek onward as
building heights aloft maintain above normal temperatures, while
large-scale subsidence limits rain chances. A reinforcing push of
dry air in east/northeast flow will maintain low dewpoints in the
50s and lower 60s, and this will result in less oppressive late
season heat with heat index values near or below ambient
temperatures. Highs will still be in the 90s for most of the area
through the extended forecast period, about 5-10 degrees above
normal for the first week of astronomical fall. Another breakdown
of the ridge axis and weak frontal intrusion could occur sometime
late this weekend or early next week which would be the next
mentionable opportunity for rain.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Widespread thunderstorms are ongoing across Central Texas,
generating along a southward surging outflow from this mornings
thunderstorm activity across the Arklatex. Much of this activity
is expected to remain south of the TAF sites. However, a few
storms cannot be ruled out within the vicinity of the TAF sites
this afternoon given a continued moist, hot and unstable
environment. Northeasterly winds are expected to persist through
the duration of this TAF cycle with VFR conditions remaining in
place. For Waco, a similar trend is expected, however, the bulk of
the activity is expected to remain east of Waco.
Winds across North Texas remain fairly light out of the
northeast. The northeasterly winds will persist across the region
thanks to a weak front moving south out of Oklahoma. Waco will
likely continue with variable wind speeds through the next few
hours before becoming established out of the northeast this
evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 95 75 95 / 30 10 10 10
Waco 74 96 74 97 / 30 10 10 10
Paris 71 94 71 93 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 71 94 70 95 / 20 10 10 10
McKinney 70 95 70 94 / 20 10 10 0
Dallas 76 96 76 96 / 30 10 10 10
Terrell 72 97 73 95 / 20 10 10 10
Corsicana 73 97 74 96 / 30 10 10 0
Temple 72 96 73 98 / 20 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 68 93 69 95 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
