Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
746
FXUS64 KFWD 110518
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1218 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing southerly winds, seasonably hot temperatures, and low
humidity will support an increasing threat for wildfires across
North and Central TX through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Mid level ridging will continue to promote seasonably hot
afternoons through the middle of the week with little chance for
rainfall. Some passing high clouds can be expected overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, low level moisture has
pooled along the TX coast into the Hill Country where PW values
have climbed to near 2 inches. This additional moisture may lead
to some low clouds that will try to spread into the Brazos Valley
through the morning. Otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 100 degrees both days.
Low level moisture will be a touch higher today despite modest
boundary layer mixing. Some of the moisture currently in Central
and Southeast TX will spread north through the afternoon and
dewpoints will likely tick upward a few degrees. This should
result in some heat index values between 104-107 degrees across
our northern counties where temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer. The current heat advisory configuration addresses this
potential and no additional changes are required at this time.
A deepening surface low over eastern Colorado will help tighten
the pressure gradient through the middle of the week and we`ll see
southwesterly winds increase in response. This should promote
deeper mixing on Wednesday afternoon and high res guidance shows
dewpoints falling back into the upper 50s and lower 60s which
should preclude the need for an additional Heat Advisory on
Wednesday. The increased winds will also result in cooler WBGT
values with readings in the 86-88 degree range Wednesday
afternoon.
We`ll also be monitoring an increasing threat for wildfire
activity through the week. Shortwave IR imagery shows the 2500
acre Bufford Creek fire in northern Stephens County at this hour.
Increasing winds and low humidity will continue to support
wildfire activity across the region through the week.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
Little change in the pattern is expected into the upcoming
weekend with hot and dry conditions expected to continue as mid
level ridging expands eastward. A weak mid level disturbance will
round the western periphery of this ridge axis on Friday and
Saturday spreading into Deep South Texas and eventually into the
Hill Country. While it`s unlikely that we`ll see any significant
precipitation associated with this disturbance, we may see a
slight increase in sea breeze convection across southeast TX which
may eventually spread into some of our southeast counties Friday
and Saturday afternoons. Otherwise, mid level heights will
continue to increase into the weekend with temperatures expected
to respond upward. We`ll likely see highs in the 101-105 degree
range by Sunday and Monday.
Concerning the fire potential, Thursday looks like the day when
we`ll see the strongest winds with minimum RH values as low as 20%
across parts of our western counties. Current median peak wind
gusts for Thursday are right around 30 kt which would certainly
raise the concern for any ongoing and potentially new fire
activity.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026
VFR will prevail through the period, although some MVFR cigs
currently in Central TX may spread north toward Waco through the
early morning hours. Otherwise, south winds around 15 kt will
prevail with some scattered afternoon cumulus clouds.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 80 100 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 98 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 77 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 80 100 80 101 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 98 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-
101>107-116>121-133-134.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
