Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
426
FXUS64 KFWD 261712
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot, dry and humid conditions will persist into early next week.
Afternoon heat index values could reach or exceed 105 degrees at
times this weekend into early next week.
- Windy conditions are expected this weekend into Monday, with
gusts between 30-35 mph likely each day. An isolated gust up to
40 mph is not out of the question.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Expect a warm, breezy, and mostly dry start to this weekend as
the Southern Plains upper-level ridge begins to expand to the
northeast. Light precipitation echoes are currently being seen on
radar near the Red River, however, dry air underneath the cloud
deck will evaporate most if not all precipitation before it
reaches the ground. We cannot rule out a sprinkle or two on the
ground, and have included a 10% chance for sprinkles through mid-
afternoon near and north of US-380. Otherwise, expect the rest of
today to be warm and dry, with afternoon highs in the mid-upper
90s. High humidity will push heat indices to between 100-104. Some
isolated spots may reach a heat index of 105. Lee cyclogenesis in
the Panhandles will tighten the surface pressure gradient,
resulting in elevated wind speeds and gusts. Gusts up to 30-35 mph
are likely this afternoon.
Continued breezy conditions overnight will keep the boundary
layer decoupled, resulting in warm overnight low temperatures in
the mid 70s. With increasing subsidence and little overnight
relief, high temperatures will once again peak in the low 90s to
around 100. Heat indices will remain in the upper 90s to around
104 tomorrow afternoon. Gusty south winds 15-25 mph with gusts
between 30-35 are likely, though isolated gusts to around 40 mph
are not out of the question. The majority of North and Central
Texas will remain below Wind Advisory criteria this weekend, with
only isolated spots reaching/exceeding the 2-hour criteria. At
this time, a Wind Advisory is not planned due to how isolated met
criteria would be.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Hot, humid, and dry conditions will persist through the rest of
the forecast area going into the first half of next week. Gusty
winds will remain through both Sunday and Monday, with peak daily
gusts between 30-35 (isolated gusts up to 40 mph) mph for most. A
Wind Advisory is not anticipated at this time, but we will
continue to keep an eye on future guidance. Eventually, the center
of the upper ridge will shift off to the northeast into the
Missouri River Valley, allowing the winds to recede in strength.
Expect heat to remain the biggest forecast concern, as high
temperatures begin to increase towards the triple digit mark. NBM
probabilities of > 99 degrees begin to increase across the region
next week. Out west, upper-level troughing will become
established over the western CONUS, with North and Central Texas
within south- southwesterly flow aloft. The forecast is generally
expected to remain dry, with majority of any precipitation staying
outside of the FWD CWA. Triple digit heat indices between 100-105
are likely for most, with some areas exceeding 105 degrees. A
Heat Advisory may be needed for some areas in North and Central
Texas later this weekend into next week, but this decision will be
made in future forecast updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026
Breezy southerly winds will prevail this afternoon with peak
gusts to around 28-30 kts. Overnight, winds will remain elevated,
but gusts will lighten up somewhat. Some MVFR cigs will approach
ACT towards daybreak, but terminal impact probabilities remain
around 30% or less. Therefore, have decided to keep VFR prevailing
at ACT between 11-14Z until confidence in direct impact is
higher. Otherwise, expect continued southerly winds tomorrow, with
increasing speeds and gusts around 30 kt beginning late tomorrow
morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 78 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 78 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
