Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
817
FXUS64 KFWD 192326
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
626 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures will continue to exceed 100 degrees for the
next several days. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
remain in effect for portions of the area.
- There is a low chance for thunderstorms in parts of Northeast
Texas Thursday afternoon and evening, but most areas will remain
rain-free into next week.
- The hot temperatures and low afternoon humidity may contribute
to increased wildfire starts for the next few days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Very hot conditions will persist today and tomorrow, with high
temperatures climbing to 100-108 degrees. Dew points will mix out
once again, keeping heat index values within a few degrees of
actual temperatures for most areas. The Extreme Heat Warning and
Heat Advisory were both extended through Thursday evening.
Eastland and Erath counties were removed from the Extreme Heat
Warning and added to the Heat Advisory as observations from the
past couple of days have fallen short of meeting warning
criteria, with very similar conditions expected today and
tomorrow.
Thursday afternoon, north/northwest flow aloft will allow a weak
frontal boundary to slide into northern portions of the forecast
area. This boundary will serve as a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Have advertised 10-20% PoPs across these areas, though most
locations are expected to remain rain-free. Lightning and gusty
winds will be the main hazards with any thunderstorm activity
tomorrow. Additionally, while wind speeds will remain relatively
light (10-15 mph or less), wildfire starts will continue to be a
concern given the ongoing heat and low relative humidity (20-30%).
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Triple digit heat will continue through the period. Generally
rain-free conditions are expected, but there remains a weak signal
for some precipitation potential over the weekend. Our forecast
will remain dry for now, but keep an eye out for any changes,
especially if you have outdoor plans this weekend. Otherwise,
we`ll likely continue with some variation of heat headlines
through the weekend or even into early next week as
temperatures/heat index values will be well into the triple
digits each day.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds
generally around 10 kts or less.
A weak frontal boundary will remain north of the Red River
overnight, before sagging slowly south on Thursday. While several
CAMs develop convection along the nearby boundary, nearly every
solution requires storms to survive in an increasingly unfavorable
environment before reaching the Metroplex. As a result, the
probability of direct terminal impacts remains too low to warrant
a TAF mention. Likewise, any appreciable wind shift would most
likely be tied to convective outflow rather than the weakening
frontal boundary itself.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 106 82 105 / 0 10 10 10
Waco 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 80 104 76 104 / 0 20 20 0
Denton 80 105 79 105 / 0 10 10 10
McKinney 80 105 79 104 / 0 10 10 10
Dallas 82 106 82 106 / 0 10 10 10
Terrell 78 104 78 105 / 0 10 10 0
Corsicana 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 10 0
Temple 76 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 77 106 76 106 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-131>134.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ129-130-135-141>148-
156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
