Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 241809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1209 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

/Tonight and Saturday/

Another seasonably cool, late January night is in store for the
area tonight. A vigorous mid level trough over the Ozarks and Mid
Mississippi Valley will continue pulling east, away from North
and Central Texas. Meanwhile, surface high pressure sliding across
Central Texas will shift over the Upper Texas Coast/ Northwest
Gulf of Mexico by this evening. Current northwest winds around 10
mph will become southeast around 4-7 mph tonight, as a weaker mid
level impulse drops across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
This impulse will only produce some sporadic thin cirrus
overnight. I expect temperatures to fall into the mid 30s to mid
40s, with the coldest temperatures across our northeast zones
where some patchy frost is likely to form by morning.

This second mid level impulse arrives across our area by Saturday
afternoon, inducing increasing pressure falls across West Texas
and limited moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. Increasing
clouds through the day are expected and we could see even a few
sprinkles across Central Texas in the afternoon. Measurable rainfall
appears unlikely as moisture will be relatively shallow and elevated
around 6-7 kft. What the increasing south winds and clouds will
accomplish is keeping temperatures from warming much beyond the
lower-mid 60s and have stayed near, or even slightly cooler than
blends with these atmospheric changes in mind.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020/
/Saturday Onward/

North and Central Texas will remain rain-free during the day on
Saturday, but rain chances will exist Saturday night as a
shortwave treks across the region. A surface low across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles will strengthen and slide eastward as
the shortwave approaches on Saturday. Our surface winds will
increase in response to the deepening surface low, and low-level
moisture will be advected northward. The combination of
increasing moisture and forcing for ascent associated with the
shortwave will result in scattered showers Saturday night and
Sunday morning, with the best chances across the eastern half of
the region. Rain will come to an end from west to east as a weak
cold front slides across the region.

We will begin the work week with rain-free conditions and
temperatures a few degrees above-normal in the mid to upper 60s,
but the arrival of another shortwave and cold front will bring
rain chances across the region beginning Monday night and ending
Tuesday night. The best chances will occur on Tuesday, mainly
along and east of the I-35 corridor. There will be a potential for
isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday as mid-level lapse rates of
7-7.5 C/km may be realized on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will
remain in the low to mid 60s due to increased cloud cover and weak
cold air advection behind the front.

A third system will be developing across the Desert Southwest
towards the end of the work week and may bring another round of
rain chances on Thursday. The details with this system are still
unclear, as model solutions continue to differ. Otherwise,
temperatures will be a few degrees above-normal through the end of
the week.



/18z TAFs/

Concerns: None through tonight. Minor for increasing southerly
gusts between 20-25 knots by 18z Saturday, as well as increasing
and lower VFR cigs before 00z Sunday.

Surface high pressure will continue to expand across the region
through 00z, before shifting southeast toward the northwest Gulf
of Mexico tonight. Sustained NW winds around 10 knots will become
briefly light and variable around 00z Saturday, before becoming
SE around 5 knots tonight. Deepening surface low pressure across W
TX on Saturday will result in S winds 10-15 knots, with gusts
of 20-25 knots at times across the D10 terminals.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    59  40  63  50  62 /   0   0   5  30  10
Waco                63  39  63  50  64 /   0   0  10  40  10
Paris               51  35  58  46  55 /   0   0   5  70  30
Denton              58  37  62  47  61 /   0   0   5  40  10
McKinney            56  35  61  48  60 /   0   0   5  40  20
Dallas              58  41  63  50  62 /   0   0   5  40  10
Terrell             57  36  62  48  61 /   0   0   5  50  20
Corsicana           59  39  62  50  62 /   0   0   5  50  20
Temple              64  40  63  50  65 /   0   0  10  40  10
Mineral Wells       61  39  64  45  61 /   0   0   5  30   5





NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion