Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
097
FXUS64 KFWD 170635
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1235 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Occasional light rain, mist, and drizzle will affect portions
of the area today and tonight, especially near and east of the
Interstate 35 corridor.
- A cold front will move through on Thursday, but temperatures
will remain near or above normal even after its passage.
- Abnormally warm and mostly rain-free weather will resume for the
weekend and into next week, including through the Christmas
holiday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
A swath of rich low-level moisture will continue to be drawn
northward through the forecast area during much of the short term
forecast period ahead of an approaching mid-level trough axis,
and this has begun to support light rain across our southeastern
zones as of midnight. A small amount of elevated instability also
exists within this corridor which may support a few rumbles of
thunder, but lightning activity overall should be infrequent.
Widespread cloud cover will inhibit radiational cooling overnight,
and most areas will begin the morning in the upper 40s to mid 50s
while pockets of mist/drizzle increase in coverage across parts
of Central and East Texas. While some partial clearing may occur
during the afternoon, particularly in North Texas, a rapid
northwestward expansion of cloud cover should resume after sunset
along with an uptick in drizzle activity along the I-35 corridor
as isentropic ascent within the 900-800 mb layer strengthens.
Precipitation will begin to taper off after midnight as the upper
trough axis and resultant ascent begins to shift east of the CWA.
By early Thursday morning, low-level flow will begin veering
southwesterly ahead of a second stronger Central Plains trough.
Unlike its predecessor, this trough will be accompanied by a
stout cold front, and this boundary will sweep through the
forecast area during the daytime Thursday. Skies will clear out in
response to dry advection within northwest winds of 15-25 mph and
some higher gusts. However, due to the tepid nature of the
upstream cP airmass, there will not be a significant cooldown with
this front`s passage. It will serve to knock overnight lows down
into the 30s on Thursday night before a quick return to above
normal temperatures heading into Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
A quick resumption of southerly flow on Friday will result in
continued above normal highs to end the workweek with readings in
the 60s and lower 70s. By the weekend, the synoptic pattern will
begin resembling one more reminiscent of mid-September than mid-
December as a strong 590+ dam ridge gains strength along the 30N
parallel. Breezy south winds and the building upper ridge will
send highs into the 70s and lower 80s on Saturday, while
moisture/humidity also begins making a return within the southerly
fetch. A weak frontal zone will approach the area on Sunday.
However, its southward progress will be stalled by the upper
ridge axis while its parent trough remains displaced far to the
north as the polar jet retreats northward into Canada. The nearby
stalled frontal zone will increase cloud cover locally for Sunday,
while also shaving a few degrees off of temperatures with highs
still in the 60s and lower 70s. The ridge should continue
amplifying heading into next week while reaching nearly a three
sigma standard deviation in strength across the Central CONUS.
This should set the stage for a very warm Christmas holiday,
perhaps in the top 10 or even top 5 warmest on record. Rain
chances through the extended period are currently less than 10%.
Sorry kiddies, no white Christmas!
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025
Degraded flying conditions will prevail through most of the
period. MVFR cigs will give way to IFR cig heights after sunrise
this morning which will remain anchored across most of the TAF
sites through midday. Following some brief improvement to MVFR in
the afternoon, cigs should quickly fall after sunset this evening
to IFR/LIFR heights while increasing lift begins to support
pockets of mist and drizzle. This light precipitation should also
act to reduce visibilities to the 1-3SM range through the
evening. A veering to southwesterly flow will occur overnight into
early Thursday morning which will shunt low clouds eastward ahead
of an approaching cold front, with VFR resuming during the
extended DFW TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 52 65 56 / 0 0 10 20
Waco 61 56 66 60 / 0 20 20 20
Paris 58 50 61 55 / 10 0 20 30
Denton 61 47 64 51 / 0 0 0 20
McKinney 61 50 63 55 / 0 0 10 30
Dallas 61 53 65 57 / 0 10 10 20
Terrell 59 52 64 57 / 10 10 20 20
Corsicana 61 57 67 60 / 0 30 40 20
Temple 62 54 67 57 / 0 20 30 20
Mineral Wells 66 48 69 50 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
