Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
873
FXUS64 KFWD 021859
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue through the holiday weekend
with highs mainly in the mid and upper 90s and peak heat index
values of 100 to 105 degrees.
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon through
Saturday, with better rain and storm chances Sunday through
Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
A more active day today across North Central Texas compared to
earlier this week, with a chance of a few late day showers and
thunderstorms mainly north and east of the DFW Metroplex. Current
visible satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field located
roughly to the north and east of a Greenville to Sherman line. This
is consistent with CAM guidance, which have consistently shown
widely scattered convection along a confluence boundary, confined to
areas primarily north of I-20 and east of I-45. Current SPC
mesoanalysis and the latest ACARS sounding out of KDAL show an
uncapped environment combined with 1000-1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE. With
the lack of CINH across the region and current satellite trends,
convective initiation is likely to occur by 19Z. Due to high
confidence in convective initiation and overall coverage, but large
uncertainty in the exact placement of convection, have opted for
deterministic (i.e. isolated or scattered) wording of thunderstorms
in the forecast rather than probabilistic phrasing. Forecast
soundings continue to indicate 25-30 degree surface dewpoint
depressions in the vicinity of these storms and inverted-V profiles,
which should result in widespread cold pool formation and gusty
winds near any thunderstorms. Further, DCAPE values around 1000 J/Kg
also suggest the potential for some stronger gusts of 35-45 mph,
especially with any collapsing thunderstorms. The potential for
severe wind gusts looks minimal at this time as 700 mb flow is
around 10 knots, therefore we won`t be mixing any stronger winds
down to the surface within any downdrafts. As these storms will be
diurnally-driven, expect thunderstorm coverage to decrease shortly
after sunset. In terms of temperatures, expect highs to be similar
to what we have seen the past few days with maximum temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the low 100s. Overnight,
expect mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 70s for the
Metroplex, and low to mid 70s elsewhere.
A similar pattern will be in place for Friday, as we remain under
the influence of an elongated mid-level ridge. While most locations
will stay dry, there is a similar threat for a few afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms, especially along any residual
outflow boundaries from convection the previous day which will serve
as a focal point for additional development. Like today, PoPs are
highest toward areas north and east of the Metroplex, but cannot
rule out one or two thunderstorms within DFW especially if there are
numerous boundary interactions from ongoing convection.
High temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today and just short
of heat advisory criteria, as we have remained below the 105 degree
heat index threshold.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
The long term period starts out with another seasonably hot day to
celebrate the 4th of July underneath a 591 dam 500 mb ridge,
yielding slightly above average high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s across North Central Texas. With weak flow aloft (around
10 knot 500 mb flow), and ample low-level moisture with surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, we can expect another chance
for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Most areas will
likely stay dry as coverage isn`t anticipated to be widespread, but
those who are impacted by a storm can expect briefly heavy rain,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Those who do stay dry may still
experience gusty winds in the vicinity of any storms, especially if
impacted by any outflow boundaries. The holiday will again remain
seasonably hot and humid, with high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s and feels-like temperatures ranging from 100-105 degrees. Rinse
and repeat...
The pattern becomes more active on Sunday through Tuesday, when
precipitation chances increase and become more widespread as the
ridge becomes centered over West Texas and New Mexico, with a few
weak shortwave troughs embedded in NW flow moving across North
Texas. The greater synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will likely
result in greater thunderstorm coverage across North Central Texas
relative to the previous few days, which will hopefully provide a
little bit of heat relief later in the day. Long range ensemble
guidance has PWAT values ranging from the 70-80th percentile each
day, so heavy rain is a threat from any storms during this time
frame. Severe weather is not anticipated as deep-layer shear
remains weak underneath the ridge.
On Wednesday, seasonably hot and humid conditions will continue over
North Central Texas. However, with some lingering moisture
underneath the ridge, can expect a slight chance for a few late day
showers and thunderstorms across the region, with low confidence in
exact coverage.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with mainly a
few cumulus over the Metroplex terminals and KACT. Most of the
thunderstorm coverage is expected to be well to the north and east
of KDFW and KDAL and have opted to not include VCTS in the TAFs as
these are expected to remain greater than 25 miles to the north and
east of these terminals. There is a slight (15-20%) chance that an
isolated shower or thunderstorm impacts mainly the eastern half of
the Metroplex, but confidence isn`t high enough to mention these in
the TAFs. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies tonight with SSE
winds ranging from 10-15 knots.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 79 98 80 / 10 10 10 0
Waco 95 77 97 77 / 0 0 10 0
Paris 92 74 91 74 / 40 20 20 10
Denton 97 78 97 79 / 10 10 10 0
McKinney 96 77 95 78 / 20 10 10 0
Dallas 98 78 99 80 / 20 10 10 0
Terrell 95 75 95 77 / 30 20 10 10
Corsicana 97 77 97 77 / 10 0 10 0
Temple 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brauer
LONG TERM....Brauer
AVIATION...Brauer
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
