Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
763
FXUS64 KFWD 131740
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
Texas through 8 PM Monday.
- Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming work
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
As ridging builds over much of the southern and southeastern
CONUS, synoptic scale subsidence and surface high pressure will
allow dry conditions and above normal temperatures to persist
today into tomorrow. Despite strong diurnal mixing throughout the
afternoon, surface dew points in the 60s and low 70s along with
afternoon highs in the upper-90s and lower-100s will result in
peak heat indices ranging from 100-107 degrees. As such, a Heat
Advisory is in effect across much of North and Central Texas today.
Tomorrow, the Heat Advisory is confined to the I-35 corridor and
eastward. This area will see richer boundary layer moisture and
higher heat indices (105-107 degrees) compared to west of the
I-35 corridor (100-104 degrees) where strong mixing and gusty
southwesterly winds will help afternoon dew points drop into the
upper-50s and lower-60s.
The abundant boundary layer moisture and a weakness in heights
over the Gulf Coast will promote very isolated rain showers across
portions of Central and East Texas (~10% chance) Sunday and Monday
afternoons. Any shower that is able to develop will likely be
brief in nature due to the entrainment of very dry air above the
boundary layer.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Stubborn ridging aloft and the lack of any surface boundaries
across the region will result in the monotonous hot and dry
weather pattern across the region to continue through the work
week. Medium range guidance that resolved a potential weekend cold
front continues to shift it later into the following week with
the most recent model runs diminishing the potential for any
cooler airmasses to work south into the area by the end of this
forecast period. However, troughing over the western CONUS looks
to deepen this upcoming weekend, shunting the strong ridge
currently overhead to the east and bring in southwesterly flow
aloft. This flow regime change may favor the return of low rain
chances around or just after the end of this forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
MVFR cigs (BKN010-020) are expected to develop across portions of
Central Texas 10Z-15Z. There is a low chance (10-20%) these
clouds may develop north enough to bring brief reduced cigs to
KACT, however this scenario is too unlikely to include in TAFs at
this time. As such, expect VFR conditions and southerly flow at
9-15 knots to prevail at all TAF sites through the duration of
this forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 81 101 80 / 0 0 10 0
Waco 100 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10
Paris 100 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 10
Denton 101 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 100 77 100 77 / 10 10 0 0
Dallas 102 81 102 81 / 0 10 10 0
Terrell 101 77 101 76 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 100 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 10
Temple 100 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 101 75 101 75 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091-092-100>102-
115>117-129>132-144-157.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ093>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
