Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
112
FXUS64 KFWD 131042
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the area
today through Wednesday with primarily a threat for flash
flooding. A few strong storms may also produce gusty downburst
winds and small hail.
- Rain chances will gradually diminish through the midweek
period, before seasonably hot and dry weather resumes by the
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Showers and thunderstorms have affected portions of North Texas
overnight with very localized rainfall totals of as much as 3-5
inches. While some of this activity may decline after sunrise,
renewed widespread convective development will resume through
much of the daytime, with activity gradually shifting from north
to south into Central Texas by late afternoon and evening.
Isolated flash flooding will continue to be the main concern with
an environment supportive of very efficient rainfall on the order
of 2-3" per hour. PoPs were refined to capture these trends with
this morning`s update, and high temperatures were also lowered
slightly with cloud cover expected to be prevalent over much of
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will persist through
the entire short term forecast period in the presence of broad
mid-level troughing and rich Gulf moisture. This diffuse pattern
and weak dynamic ascent will allow convection to redevelop and be
maintained outside of peak heating hours, although coverage
should still tend to be maximized during the daytime both today
and Tuesday. With anomalously high moisture content in place
characterized by PW values over 2", all cells will be capable of
very heavy rainfall with observed rates on the order of 3" per
hour. Isolated flash flooding will continue to be the primary
forecast concern through the next 48 hours, with a much lower
potential for strong/severe convective wind/hail hazards. Due to
the very isolated nature of the flooding potential along with a
tremendous amount of spatial uncertainty regarding the highest
rainfall totals, no Flood Watch product is currently planned with
this forecast issuance.
The weakly forced nature of convection will continue to result in
below normal forecast confidence and precision since new
development will progressively hinge on small-scale features like
outflows and MCVs. However, the overall trend through the next 36
hours should be for convection to primarily affect North Texas
through this morning before gradually shifting southward mainly
into Central Texas this afternoon. Following a relative minimum
in thunderstorm activity overnight, a reblossoming of widespread
convection is expected across much of Central Texas on Tuesday,
while areas near and north of the I-20 corridor see more isolated
coverage of only 20-30%.
For many areas, this episode of showers and thunderstorms will be
a benefit, both in terms of rare mid-summer rainfall along with a
reprieve from the heat. Ample cloud cover along with the presence
of rain-cooled air during peak heating will keep high
temperatures below normal both today and Tuesday, and areas
affected by convection through a majority of the daytime may only
see highs reach the mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
While the greatest lift from the upper low/easterly wave will
gradually shift southwest of the forecast area heading into the
midweek period, the weakness aloft will allow for scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the forecast area
through Wednesday. However, this activity will probably tend to be
more diurnally driven in comparison to the preceding couple of
days in the absence of stronger ascent to sustain convection
overnight. Rain chances could linger into Thursday, with recent
guidance suggesting a slower southeastward expansion of the ridge
axis in comparison to previous model runs, although coverage
should steadily decrease heading into the second half of the
workweek. Seasonably hot and dry weather should resume by the
upcoming weekend as mid-level heights steadily build and
subsidence regains control. This will send high temperatures back
to near or above normal with readings in the upper 90s to around
100 through the extended forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Showers and thunderstorms remain in progress near the D10
airports as of 11z, and will result in TSRA impacts for at least
the next couple of hours. While there may be a brief lull in
activity through the late morning, renewed thunderstorm
development is possible from midday into the early afternoon
within D10, and will continue to advertise this general trend in
the TAFs. Category reductions due to a combination of cig/vis
degradations can be expected within bouts of heavier
precipitation. Most activity will shift southward into Central
Texas by mid/late afternoon which is when Waco will experience its
greatest TSRA chances. The evening and overnight period should be
more tranquil for all TAF sites with lull in convective activity,
but MVFR cigs and perhaps some fog may fill in during this time
period and persist into Tuesday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 73 91 73 / 60 10 30 20
Waco 88 74 87 71 / 60 20 70 40
Paris 88 71 90 70 / 40 10 20 10
Denton 90 72 91 70 / 50 10 20 10
McKinney 88 72 92 71 / 50 10 20 10
Dallas 90 74 91 73 / 60 10 30 20
Terrell 88 72 90 70 / 60 10 30 20
Corsicana 89 72 89 72 / 60 10 50 30
Temple 89 72 84 71 / 60 30 80 40
Mineral Wells 89 72 89 68 / 40 10 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
