Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
370
FXUS64 KFWD 052302
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through
the first half of next week.
- Chances for any rain in our east and southeast remain around
10% or less this weekend into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026
Expect a relatively quiet rest of the week across North and
Central Texas. Through Friday, expect afternoon highs to peak in
the mid 90s to around 102 amidst mostly sunny skies and southerly
winds. Afternoon heat indices will be hot, but somewhat manageable
as we mix out quite a bit, mainly staying between the mid 90s to
around 104 today and tomorrow. A few spots may reach or just
exceed the 105 degree mark today or tomorrow, but will be sporadic
and confined enough to forego any issuance of a Heat Advisory.
Nonetheless, make sure to stay cool and hydrated.
The upper level ridge will remain the dominant player in our
weather pattern over the next couple of days, though it will
gradually shift back to the west heading into the weekend. With
the ridge slowly receding and an emerging weakness to our east, we
cannot rule out a very isolated diurnally-driven shower or storm
approaching our east and southeast counties in the afternoons.
This probability remains quite low, around 10% or less at this
time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026
Going into the weekend, North and Central Texas will remain on
the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge within a subtle
weakness aloft. A cold front is expected to stall well to our
north near the Oklahoma/Kansas border by Friday, and much of any
MCSs that develop look to remain to our northeast going into the
weekend. Still can`t rule out very isolated diurnally-driven
development just to our east and southeast in the afternoons
heading into next week, but anything would likely be outside of
our area. The weakness in the ridge aloft will aid in keeping
afternoon temperatures each day in the mid 90s to around 100
degrees, which is near to just slightly above normal for this time
in early August. Afternoon heat indices will peak in the mid 90s
to around 104-105, and some areas may observe >105 degree heat
indices, which may initiate new Heat Advisories going into next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026
South winds of 10-15 kt will remain common at all airports as
North and Central Texas remain positioned between a Bermuda high
and a surface front in the Plains. At the upper levels, a
persistent strong ridge has been briefly compromised on its
northeast flank by a passing upper trough, which has allowed for
isolated convection over East Texas. Precipitation is unlikely at
any of the area airports, though some high based cumulus will
linger for a few hours into the evening. VFR and overall quiet
aviation weather is otherwise expected through Thursday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 0 0
Denton 79 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 78 99 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
