Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
048
FXUS64 KFWD 191018
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
518 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
continue this week, mainly across Central and East TX.
- Mild temperatures warm back to near/above normal mid to late
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Lingering post-frontal showers have largely exited Central Texas
as of midnight, with precipitation confined to our far southern
counties. This activity will continue to push south and east, and
is expected to fully exit our CWA in the next hour or two.
Through the rest of the early morning, cloud cover will also
continue to shift southward as drier air moves into the region on
the backside of the departing trough.
The rest of Sunday will be quiet as the post-frontal surface high
slides across the Southern Plains. Morning low temperatures will
be chilly mainly in the upper 30 to upper 40s. However, with winds
becoming light across much of North Texas amongst clearing skies,
it would not be surprising to see spots in our north and western
counties that drop a bit lower into the mid 30s. Usually, light
winds, clearing skies, and primed soils from recent rain would
promote the potential for patchy fog development. We may be a bit
too dry for any widespread development this morning, but I would
not be surprised if there was some occurrences of patchy fog in
low-lying spots that are able to drop a bit more in temperature.
The aforementioned surface high will slide to our east/southeast
later today, returning winds out of the southeast.
Ridging will continue to build atop the Southern Plains as we
head through today into Monday. Ample moisture remaining in the
Gulf will begin to surge northward across far west Texas starting
tonight. This increased moisture will slowly move east through
the day on Monday, while at the same time a shortwave disturbance
is expected to move overhead. The incoming lift and moisture will
promote a blossoming of scattered showers starting off to our west
in the morning, and will slowly spread east the rest of the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Additional higher-coverage showers are expected to spread across
the region going into Tuesday morning, with the majority of the
light rainfall occurring during this period. Highest coverage
will likely be confined to our Central Texas counties, where up to
around an inch of rainfall is most reasonable through midweek.
Further north, expect lower totals less than an inch. Most of the
activity will exit the region late Tuesday as the disturbance
shifts east, though lingering isolated showers are expected across
East Texas until Wednesday afternoon. With ridging once again
building into the region on Wednesday, temperatures are expected
to warm up back into the 70s and 80s. A return to unsettled
weather is expected late this week into the weekend as longwave
troughing sets up across the western CONUS and slowly spreads
east. Smaller disturbances are progged to eject out ahead of the
main trough, with a low-medium (ranging from 20-40%) potential for
daily isolated-scattered showers and storms Thursday through the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026
Mid-upper level clouds continue to stream atop the TAF sites this
morning, but will decline in coverage through the rest of the
morning and afternoon. Light northerly winds will gradually
transition to more of an east to east-southeast wind of 8-10 kt
mid-late morning, with north-south flow change likely around 15Z.
Late tonight, winds will veer even further out of the southeast,
becoming light in speed again overnight with returning mid-upper
cloud cover. Outside of the period, showers are expected to spread
from west to east over the day Monday, but any impacts will be
handled in future TAF issuances.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 52 75 57 / 0 0 0 30
Waco 73 50 69 56 / 0 0 10 40
Paris 72 46 75 52 / 0 0 0 10
Denton 72 46 74 53 / 0 0 0 30
McKinney 72 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 20
Dallas 75 52 75 57 / 0 0 0 30
Terrell 73 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 20
Corsicana 75 50 76 57 / 0 0 0 30
Temple 73 51 70 55 / 0 0 20 60
Mineral Wells 72 46 72 52 / 0 0 10 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
