Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

297
FXUS64 KFWD 092353
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and mostly rain-free weather will prevail through
  next week.

- The threat for more widespread grass fire activity increases by
  the middle and latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Another hot afternoon is underway across North and Central Texas.
Similar to the last several days, temperatures will peak in the
upper 90s to around 102 degrees with maximum heat index values
generally between 100-105 degrees.

Our region remains wedged between two areas of high pressure, once
over the Four Corners region and another over Florida. With a
relative weakness in place over us, we`ll have another low chance
of isolated showers and storms this afternoon. Satellite
continues to show a wedge of moisture that extends from west to
east, generally along the I-20 and I-30 corridors. As daytime
heating continues, the development of a few storms will be
possible in the vicinity of those two interstate corridors.
Confidence in exact location remains low given there is no focused
forcing mechanism. Another area to monitor for isolated showers
and storms will be across the Brazos Valley, where sea-breeze
induced activity may migrate north through the afternoon and reach
our Central Texas counties.

Any storm that develops today will be capable of producing gusty
outflow winds given a fairly well-mixed lower atmosphere. The
threat for any severe storm remains low. As the sun begins to
set, expect rain chances to diminish, leaving behind dry
conditions throughout the region.

Tomorrow, expect continued hot weather with a another low
potential for some showers and storms. Compared to today, the
overall weather pattern remains unchanged, however, a weak
shortwave will come onshore during the day and inch closer to our
region by the afternoon. This may help generate additional
convection to our south with outflows pushing north into our
region. This could once again lead to a few showers and storms
across the Brazos Valley in the afternoon/evening hours, however,
this activity will dissipate closer to or shortly after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A tranquil Monday night will give way to continued hot and mostly
dry conditions throughout the region. We`ll likely continue to
see a storm or two develop in the afternoon given a relative
weakness in the ridge over our region.

With most locations continuing to experience hot and precipitation-
free weather conditions, there will be an increasing risk for fire
starts by the middle of the week. Temperatures will remain in the
upper 90s to triple digits with afternoon relative humidity in the
mid 20% to lower 30%. In addition, wind speeds will be on an
upward trend, peaking Thursday and Friday. Should a fire start,
the potential for fire spread will be higher over this time period
compared to the rest of the week.

Models are in fairly good agreement that the ridge axis of high
pressure will gradually settle atop North and Central Texas by the
weekend, leading to continued hot and dry weather. Temperatures
across North Texas will be in the 100-102 range with 98-100
degrees in Central Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Isolated convection near the D10 airports will linger for the
next hour or so before dissipating with loss of heating. It is
unlikely that these cells would be capable of producing gusty
outflow winds immediately at any of the airports, unless a new
cell can develop right on top of the airfield. A southeasterly
wind around 10 kt will prevail with occasional higher gusts during
the daytime again tomorrow. There is a slim chance for MVFR
stratus to intrude on Waco in the morning, but cigs will most
likely remain to the south and will not be advertised in the TAF
at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79 101  79  99 /  10  10   0   0
Waco                76  98  76  97 /  10  10   0   0
Paris               75  97  75  96 /   0  10   0   0
Denton              77 100  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
McKinney            76  99  76  98 /  10  10   0   0
Dallas              79 100  80 100 /  10  10   0   0
Terrell             75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
Corsicana           75  98  76  98 /  10  10   0   0
Temple              74  96  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  99  74 100 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion