Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
226
FXUS64 KFWD 180718
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front will move through North and Central Texas
this morning. Scattered storms are expected along and behind the
front. A few storms could be strong with primarily a hail and
strong wind threat.
- Much cooler weather is expected through the middle of next week.
- Daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
A strong cold front is currently moving south through the
Southern Plains, generally draped along an Ardmore-Nocona-Snyder
line as of 2 AM. Near and just behind the surface boundary is a
messy MCS that is expected to continue to develop back towards the
west. The front and its associated storm clusters will advance
south through the morning as its upper level support swings into
the Great Lakes region, reaching our northwestern counties around
1:30-2 AM, the DFW Metroplex/I-20 corridor around 3-4 AM, and
Waco/Central Texas closer to 6-7 AM. Gusty winds and
showers/storms will occur shortly after FROPA, sticking around
through the morning.
While overall coverage and intensity of the storms are expected
to wane as they advance south, the environment will continue to be
supportive of isolated elevated strong to severe storms capable
of hail and strong winds thanks to MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, 7-8
C/km lapse rates, and 40-50 kts of deep layer shear. The threat
for hail and winds this morning is greatest across North Texas and
western portions of Central Texas. Scattered elevated showers and
storms are expected to linger on and off near and south of the
I-20 corridor through this afternoon and evening, generally moving
from SW to NE. Lapse rates between 6.5-7 C/km will continue a
threat for small hail in any of the more robust cores. The
overall severe threat this afternoon in Central Texas remains
marginal, though we cannot rule out a couple instances of 1" hail
during this time. All showers and storms will eventually come to
an end late tonight, leaving behind much cooler post-frontal air.
Tomorrow will be a much cooler, quieter day as morning low
temperatures bottom out in the 40s to around 50 degrees.
Northerly winds will gradually shift out of the east as the post-
frontal surface high slides through the region, and will aid in
keeping afternoon temperatures mainly in the low-mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
North and Central Texas will find themselves on the western
periphery of the surface high by Monday, marking the return of
southerly flow. Continued ample Gulf moisture will quickly be
advected northward across Texas as a shortwave disturbance moves
across the Southern Plains. This will allow for scattered showers
and storms mainly across our western counties on Monday,
spreading eastward on Tuesday. Upper level ridging will nudge into
the region, promoting the warm up of temperatures mid-late next
week. Unsettled weather will make a return towards the end of the
week as troughing becomes established over the western CONUS and
shifts east.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
A cold front is currently moving south into North Texas as of 2
AM, with north wind gusts up to 30 KT expected as well as an MCS
continually developing just behind the surface boundary. Wind
gusts of around 35 KT will be a bit more sporadic and isolated
behind the front. This wind shift is progged to move through D10
between 08-09Z, and ACT closer to 1130-12Z. Expect cigs and vis
to quickly deteriorate as the storms move through, with MVFR cigs
and gusty north winds lingering until late morning/early
afternoon. IFR cigs and vis are also not out of the question, but
probabilities are low enough to just keep an eye out for now.
The highest period of concern for TSRA impacts is generally
between 08-11Z in D10, though rain and thunder will remain
possible through 14Z. Coverage and thunder potential will continue
to lessen in D10 as we go into the afternoon. ACT will have more
spotty showers and storms just behind the front this morning, with
showers continuing into the afternoon. Redevelopment of showers
and storms is likely this afternoon in Central Texas, which will
impact ACT and remain generally south of the D10 sites. All
precipitation will come to an end later this evening, with
northerly winds gradually decreasing in speed the rest of the
period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 47 74 52 / 40 10 0 0
Waco 64 45 72 50 / 70 30 0 0
Paris 63 42 72 45 / 40 0 0 0
Denton 64 40 72 46 / 20 0 0 0
McKinney 64 43 72 48 / 40 10 0 0
Dallas 65 48 74 51 / 40 10 0 0
Terrell 63 43 73 48 / 50 10 0 0
Corsicana 65 46 75 50 / 70 30 0 0
Temple 65 47 73 51 / 50 40 0 0
Mineral Wells 65 40 72 45 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
