Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
512
FXUS64 KFWD 111825
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few storms may develop behind the front this afternoon across
portions of Central TX and the Brazos Valley. The severe threat
has decreased for our area, but we can`t rule out some small
hail.
- Much cooler and windy conditions are expected this afternoon
and tonight behind a strong cold front.
- A warm-up will take place Friday and Saturday, followed by
another strong cold front late Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The last round of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
out of our area this afternoon as the upper level low finally
pushes across our state. At the same time, a surface cold front
is moving across our northern counties with gusty north winds
behind it. While we continue to watch the potential for a few
strong storms as the front approaches across our southern
counties this afternoon, the overall threat has decreased. Any
storm that develops should remain elevated. Latest high-res
models show some decent lapse rates supporting some small hail,
but the overall threat will remain fairly isolated. The main
window for any strong to marginally severe storm will be between
2 pm and 7 pm before this activity moves out of our area.
Outside of the rain/storm chances this afternoon, we continue to
highlight the gusty north winds behind the front this afternoon
and evening. The Wind Advisory will be in effect for portions of
North and Central Texas from 1 pm until 10 pm this evening. The
front will bring dry and cooler weather this evening and tonight
with temperatures dropping to the 30s/40s by Thursday morning.
Winds will decrease during the day tomorrow as a surface high
pressure moves in from the west. Nevertheless, expect nice and
below normal temperatures tomorrow with highs in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The long-term forecast continues to highlight the warming trend
Friday into the weekend followed by a strong cold front late
Sunday and much cooler temperatures into early next week. As the
mid-week system departs to the southeast U.S, large scale
troughing will continue to dominate the pattern through the
weekend. At the surface, south winds will return to the region on
Friday helping daytime temperatures reach the upper 70s and 80s
by Saturday. A few locations across our western zones may even
reach 90 degrees Saturday afternoon.
A strong cold front will move south into our region Sunday
afternoon or evening, bringing another round of gusty north winds
and cooler weather behind it. This front will likely be dry, but
we can`t rule out a few showers across portions of East Texas and
the Brazos Valley Sunday night. The notable feature will be the
much cooler temperatures Sunday night and Monday with lows in the
30s/40s and highs only in the 50s on Monday. As expected for this
time of the year, these "cool-downs" don`t last too long. A mid-
level ridge is forecast to approach the southern plains by mid
week, and so the return of warmer and more seasonal weather.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Concerns...gusty winds through the evening.
A cold front will continue to move through the region this
afternoon with strong north winds behind it. Gusts between 25-35
kts will prevail through 07-09Z tonight, diminishing to around 11
kts or less by early tomorrow morning. FEW to SCT MVFR ceilings
(018-025) and light rain may accompany the front as it moves over
the DFW Metroplex sites this afternoon, but should quickly move to
the east/southeast of the sites.
The ongoing line of showers and storms will continue to move across
portions of Central and East Texas this afternoon and evening.
Expect impacts to some of the eastern arrivals/departures through
the evening before everything moves out of the region.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 42 66 48 / 30 0 0 0
Waco 77 41 63 43 / 50 0 0 0
Paris 71 38 62 43 / 60 0 0 0
Denton 71 37 64 43 / 20 0 0 0
McKinney 72 40 64 45 / 40 0 0 0
Dallas 72 42 65 48 / 40 0 0 0
Terrell 73 40 64 43 / 60 0 0 0
Corsicana 74 42 66 46 / 70 0 0 0
Temple 77 41 66 42 / 50 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 70 37 66 43 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
