Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
594
FXUS64 KFWD 251139
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The elevated fire threat will continue today and Thursday, but
lower wind speeds will limit the overall threat.
- Warm and rain-free conditions continue the rest of the week with
no significant rain chances through the weekend.
- There is potential for unsettled weather to return to the region
towards the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 1257 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
With the stout surface low still located to our northwest, winds
will remain breezy across the region as we head through the early
morning hours. The surface low will track into North and Central
Texas over the day today, shunting the gustier winds further into
central/eastern portions of Central Texas. At this time, these
winds look to remain below our Wind Advisory criteria, so have not
issued any headlines with this forecast package. There will be
elevated fire weather concerns for areas near and west of I-35
this afternoon where humidity drops to between 15-25%. Lighter
wind speeds will help to preclude a higher threat, but an
abundance of cured fuels will make ignition of any fires quite
easy. Higher humidity is expected east of I-35, which will help
to temper the fire threat further even in the presence of those
aforementioned gusty winds. As we head into Thursday, a digging
shortwave disturbance will shunt a weak cold front south through
the region. This FROPA will remain dry, but it will knock a few
degrees off of Thursday highs compared to today`s. Thursday will
feature another afternoon of elevated fire concerns near and west
of US-281.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Slightly "cooler," but still above-normal conditions will persist
through the rest of this week in the wake of Thursday`s weak cold
front, with highs remaining in the mid 70s to low 80s. Over the
weekend, southerly winds will return and broad upper-level ridging
will spread east over Texas and Mexico, culminating in a warming
trend as we head into next week. Long-range guidance continues to
show a pattern shift across the Southern Plains towards the middle
of next week, as upper-level troughing becomes established over
the western CONUS. This will force the upper ridge to our east-
southeast and allow a couple shortwave disturbances to bring
returning rain chances to North and Central Texas during the
early-mid week period. Exact timing, locations, and amounts still
remain uncertain at this time, so continue to keep updated with
the forecast as we go through the rest of this week and weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026
Southerly breezy winds continue at all TAF sites this morning,
with dense cirrus streaming overhead. There are some MVFR cigs
that have developed in East Texas this morning, but should stay
east of ACT. A surface low to our northwest will track SE across
the state today, eventually shifting winds in D10 out of the
north-northeast closer to between 00-02Z this evening. Exact
directional trends are a bit uncertain and will have to be watched
due to the location and track of the low. DFW looks to remain
more NNE, while DAL looks to have a window of more NE-ENE flow
tonight. Nonetheless, north-to-northeast flow is expected this
evening through tomorrow morning in D10. ACT is expected to remain
out of the south through the period, with the wind shift not
occurring until closer to 12Z tomorrow. There will be another
round of MVFR cigs developing near daybreak across East Texas, but
it is uncertain how far west the cigs will spread. Due to this
uncertainty have not included any MVFR cigs at D10, but this will
need to be watched.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 54 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 85 57 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 76 54 77 48 / 0 0 0 10
Denton 82 49 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 80 53 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 83 56 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 81 55 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 84 59 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 86 55 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 85 49 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
