Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
398
FXUS64 KFWD 121849
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
149 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will affect Central
Texas for the remainder of the day and into tonight. Heavy rain
producing flash flooding will be the main hazard. Across North
Texas, coverage of showers and storms will be more limited. A
few severe storms are possible.
- An active pattern will persist all week with storm chances and
potential for strong to severe storms both Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- A strong cold front this weekend is expected to bring much
cooler temperatures and dry weather for late weekend into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
The weather models are struggling with the expected trends for
rain and storms today, but continue to show a consensus for
training of storms and an increased potential for flash flooding
somewhere across Central Texas, the Hill Country, and/or the
Brazos Valley areas. For this reason and in collaboration with our
neighboring offices, we issued a Flood Watch from 1 pm through 4
am for four of our southernmost counties; but it`s possible the
Watch may need to be expanded north a row or two of counties.
The atmosphere remains very humid across the region with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s and PWAT values up to 1.5" (near the
maximum for this date). A weak upper level disturbance continues
to approach from the west and will be providing some larger scale
lift through the remainder of the day. Clouds have remained in
place across most of the region, limiting the amount of
destabilization so far, with some occasional scattering of the
clouds across western portions of our coverage area. The remnant
outflow boundary from this morning`s convection has washed out,
but the dryline can easily be identified in west Texas.
For the remainder of the day, the best coverage of showers and
storms is expected to be across Central Texas with more limited
coverage in North Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
should develop across Central Texas within the next few hours and
persist into the overnight hours. The models continue to suggest
the storms will consolidate along a band somewhere between Austin
and Waco, but the location is uncertain. Where this band sets up,
a higher threat for flash flooding will exist due to the slow
moving nature of the storms and efficiency for producing heavy
rainfall. The early morning model data placed the band of storms
just south of our coverage area, but newer high resolution data is
attempting to move the band farther north. If a more northward
location is realized, the Flood Watch will likely need to be
expanded north. Isolated rainfall totals up to 5" will be possible
in parts of Central Texas.
A low potential for strong/severe storms will exist in Central
Texas for the remainder of the day, but the area will struggle to
destabilize and the better environment will remain south of our
area. If storms become strong or severe, the main hazard will be
damaging winds and heavy rainfall, but hail and an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.
Another potential for isolated strong or severe storms will exist
through the early evening hours in our far western counties,
ahead of the dryline. This area is becoming more destabilized this
afternoon with CAPE and theta-e values increasing ahead of the
dryline. Shear vectors would be supportive of supercells, and any
storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail
and damaging winds, with a lower potential for tornadoes.
The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will persist into
the overnight hours near and where the band of storms forms in
Central Texas. The rain should dissipate and/or exit our area in
the middle of the night as the shortwave disturbance moves east
of the region. The potential for storms on Monday is much more
limited than today as we will be in shortwave ridging behind the
disturbance. However, there may be scattered small showers quickly
streaming from south to north during the morning hours with the
help of a strong low-level jet as ample moisture will remain in
place. Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur in East Texas
in the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Chances for rain and storms will continue Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday as another upper level trough approaches from
the west. On Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms are likely to form
along the dryline to our west and move into our area late into the
evening and overnight. A threat for severe storms will exist, but
the storms may be weakening as they move into our western
counties. The better potential for severe storms exists on
Wednesday as the upper level trough moves into the Plains. All the
ingredients for severe storms and heavy rainfall will be in place
on Wednesday, and all modes of severe weather will be possible.
It`s possible two rounds of storms may occur, and we will refine
the details on mode, location and timing over the next few days.
With yet another upper level trough moving into the western CONUS
Thursday and Friday, rain chances remain in the forecast Friday
through next weekend, and we may even have a few storms in our
western counties Thursday. It`s a little too early to assess the
severe storm potential beyond Wednesday with any confidence, but
we are in peak severe weather season now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
With ample moisture continuing to move into the region, ceiling
heights vary wildly across the region resulting in quick changes
between MVFR and VFR across the DFW Airports, and IFR and VFR at
Waco. This trend is likely to continue through the afternoon hours
and will be too much to chase in the TAF every hour so the 18Z
TAFs represent the most likely ceiling heights expected for the
remainder of the day. Overnight, low MVFR and IFR ceilings will
develop across the region and persist through Monday morning. IFR
cigs are more likely at KACT, and there`s about a 20-30% chance
for IFR ceilings at the Metroplex airports. The models also
indicate some light fog may develop overnight, but the wind speeds
may be too strong, and we`ll continue to take a closer look at the
fog potential.
Convective trends for the remainder of today also remain tricky
and uncertain. For the most part, convection should remain south
of the Metroplex airports, but a few showers or isolated storm may
pass through for the remainder of the afternoon or evening hours.
Will retain VCSH through 00Z, and we may not chase every little
shower or storm that moves through the DFW Airports with a TAF
amendment as their residential time near any airport is expected
to be limited/minimal.
Better chances for showers and storms will occur at and around
KACT. It`s possible a band of storms with heavy rain forms over or
very near the airport after 22Z, but this band could also form
south of the Waco area. With uncertainty in the placement of this
band of storms, opted for a Tempo group from 22-02Z for TSRA. It`s
possible the Tempo will need to be extended in time or TSRA
switched to prevailing once we see where the band of storms sets-
up.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026
Spotter activation may be requested across North and Central
Texas today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 68 85 68 / 50 20 20 10
Waco 78 68 82 67 / 80 50 20 10
Paris 76 66 80 66 / 50 40 20 10
Denton 79 66 85 66 / 40 10 20 10
McKinney 77 67 84 67 / 50 20 20 10
Dallas 79 68 84 68 / 50 20 20 10
Terrell 78 67 83 67 / 70 40 20 10
Corsicana 81 69 85 69 / 80 50 20 10
Temple 79 68 84 67 / 80 60 20 10
Mineral Wells 81 66 87 66 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ158-162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLDunn
LONG TERM....JLDunn
AVIATION...JLDunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
