Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
564
FXUS64 KFWD 061827
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
127 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist through the week with
heat indices near 105 degrees each afternoon.
- Isolated thunderstorms may develop across parts of our Red River
and Central TX counties this afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an expansive cumulus field
across southeast TX into the Hill Country associated with a weak
mid level disturbance. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are ongoing primarily across southeast TX but have expanded into
our central TX counties over the last few hours. Coverage will
continue to be about 20% through the afternoon with locally heavy
rainfall and lightning being the main threats. This activity will
wind down this evening with loss of daytime heating.
Farther north, a weak frontal boundary is draped across the mid
South into the Ozarks where convection has increased over the last
several hours. Modest northerly flow around the eastern periphery
of the mid level ridge should allow this boundary to sag south
through the afternoon aided by convective outflow. A few
thunderstorms may develop across the Arklatex and into our Red
River counties late this afternoon and evening where we`ll have
some 10-20% PoPs. Otherwise, any convective activity should wind
down after dark with mostly clear skies tonight and continued well
above normal temperatures.
Ridging will expand a bit during the day Monday and we should see
an overall decrease in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across Central TX. The heat will continue though with highs at or
just above 100 degrees. The current heat advisory will likely be
extended into Monday based on forecast heat indices near or above
105 degrees. We`ll keep PoPs at 10% or less during the day Monday.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
Mid level ridging will remain in place through the early part of
the week with continued well above normal temperatures. A weak
disturbance will round the periphery of the ridge mid week and
should again result in an uptick in convection mainly across
southeast TX. As we`re getting into the latter parts of summer
into fall, the upper pattern is becoming a little more active
across the Central and Northern Plains. As a result, we`ll see
frontal boundaries sag a little farther south with time. A fairly
stout shortwave spreads out of the Northern Plains into the Great
Lakes on Wednesday which will allow a front to move into Central
Oklahoma late in the day. This boundary may serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development into Thursday mainly to our north. We`ll
have some low PoPs across our northern counties to account for
this. Otherwise, there is a signal in the global models which
suggests that the pattern will become more active by early next
week which may bring some relief to the heat along with a slight
uptick in rain chances.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites through the
period. Winds will veer from ESE to SSW through tonight, backing to
SSE tomorrow in tandem with the diurnal oscillation. Expect fair
weather cumulus of bases ~6 kft this afternoon, clearing with the
loss of daytime heating tonight.
Isolated showers have developed around 20 miles south of Waco as
weak ascent lingers amidst an uncapped, moist airmass. Coverage is
expected to remain south of the ACT terminal, precluding the
inclusion of any VCSH at this time.
Visible satellite imagery indicates a separate area of developing
convection along a slowly moving stationary front draped across the
Ozarks. This front is expected to stall north of the Red River,
however convective trends and associated outflow will continue to be
monitored.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 101 81 101 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
Paris 76 99 76 100 / 20 10 10 10
Denton 77 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 0
Dallas 81 101 81 102 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 10
Corsicana 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 10
Temple 75 95 76 100 / 10 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 73 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-102>107-
118>123-133>135-146.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
