Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
146
FXUS64 KFWD 162329
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
629 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An isolated decaying storm or two may impact the far western
counties later this evening (~10% chance).
- A cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied by
scattered showers and storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Warm and moist weather conditions will prevail this afternoon
across North and Central Texas. The increasing moisture content is
evident by the partly cloudy skies across the region.
Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the mid to upper 80s
with a few spots likely reaching 90 degrees near the Graham area.
Most of the region will remain precipitation free this afternoon
thanks to weak and transient ridging aloft. This ridging is
coupled with a dry mid-level airmass shifting east across North
Texas. On the heels of this weak ridge is a weak shortwave that is
currently emerging out of the northern Mexican Plateau. This
shortwave, evident by the incoming layer of high clouds from the
west, will arrive to North and Central Texas late this afternoon.
In conjunction with the shortwave`s arrival, a dryline will
continue to sharpen from around Abilene to Wichita Falls, becoming
the focus for surface-level convergence. Given the warm
temperatures expected near the dryline, it`s conceivable that a
storm or two develops west of our region and becomes strong to
severe. Overall, the expectation is for any storm that develops
will move from southwest to northeast with little to no impact to
our North Texas counties. Having said that, there is a less than 15%
chance a storm or two may stream in from the west after sunset,
impacting our far western and northwestern counties. Given ample
instability and modest deep-layer shear, hail and gusty winds
would the main hazards with an overall low potential for hail
greater than 1" or damaging winds.
As we progress through the evening, any dryline activity will
subside and leave continued southerly winds across the region.
Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s with another surge of
low clouds arriving prior to sunrise.
The overall weather pattern will be similar tomorrow compared to
today, yielding another day of well above normal temperatures
along with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 80s
with breezy southerly winds developing late in the morning. The
southerly winds will be driven by the deepening surface low ahead
of a southward surging cold front. The dryline will once again
develop in the afternoon, setting up across our western-most
counties. Increased cloud-cover, coupled with a layer of warm air
between 850-700mb should keep North and Central Texas
precipitation free through the evening hours.
Closer to midnight, a cold front will be barreling southward out
of Oklahoma, paired with a line of thunderstorms. As this line of
thunderstorms moves south, it will become farther removed from the
strongest source of lift. This should lead to a weakening trend
from north to south early Saturday morning. The threat for severe
weather is low, however, we`ll have to monitor for strong winds as
this decaying line of storms shifts south.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
By sunrise Saturday, the front will likely be entering our Brazos
Valley counties with little to no precipitation along the leading
edge of the front. The gradual slope of the arriving airmass will
lend itself to increasing precipitation behind the front Saturday
afternoon. Given decreasing lapse rates and instability, severe
weather behind the front is not anticipated.
High pressure will be building over the Texas Panhandle on
Saturday, driving dry air southward into North and Central Texas.
This means precipitation will continue shifting southward closer
to the Texas coastline through the first half of Saturday night.
By Sunday, high temperatures will be in the 70s with light
northeasterly to easterly winds in place.
The surface ridge will move eastward through the first half of
the week, returning southerly flow to North and Central Texas.
Moisture will be on the rise along with a return of low rain
chances Monday and Tuesday south of I-20. Much of the week will
remain quite comfortable with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.
The latter half of next week is looking active once again as
another trough moves into the western CONUS with afternoon
thunderstorm activity firing off the dryline. Details regarding
next week`s storm chances are too uncertain, therefore, make sure
to check back in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
VFR conditions with FEW to SCT cigs near 5kft and overspreading
high cirrus will prevail through much of the evening and
overnight. Thunderstorm activity will remain well west of the
terminals. MVFR cigs will return to much of North and Central TX
early Friday morning; KACT by ~09Z and the Metroplex by ~12Z.
Expect SCT to BKN 012-025 cigs to persist through much of the
morning, lifting and diminishing in coverage after ~17Z midday
Friday.
Current south winds at 12-15 kts will increase during the day
Friday with occasional gusts up to 25-30 kts likely during the
afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 84 55 67 / 10 10 60 50
Waco 68 85 60 67 / 0 10 30 60
Paris 65 82 54 65 / 10 10 60 50
Denton 67 82 52 66 / 10 10 70 40
McKinney 68 82 55 66 / 10 10 70 50
Dallas 68 85 56 67 / 10 10 60 50
Terrell 67 84 57 68 / 0 10 50 50
Corsicana 69 87 61 70 / 0 10 30 60
Temple 68 87 61 70 / 0 0 20 60
Mineral Wells 65 85 52 66 / 10 10 60 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
