Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
338
FXUS64 KFWD 141058
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front will arrive on Sunday bringing gusty north
winds, sharply colder air, and a low chance for a few storms
in East Texas.
- Fire weather concerns will increase behind the front on Sunday
afternoon mainly near and west of I-35 amid the strong winds
and decreasing humidity. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for this area.
- Much colder weather will settle in Sunday night and Monday
night, followed by a quick warm-up and dry conditions by
midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
A warm and increasingly breezy pattern will persist across North
and Central today as the region remains firmly within the warm
sector ahead of a developing upper level trough over the Pacific
Northwest. Strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the High Plains
will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the Southern
Plains this afternoon, supporting strengthening southerly flow
across the region. With mostly clear skies and deep boundary layer
mixing, temperatures will climb well above seasonal normals this
afternoon with highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The
deepest mixing and a subtle downsloping component west of I-35 may
allow a few locations across our western counties to briefly
approach the upper 80s. South winds will increase into the 15 to
20 mph range with occasional gusts around 25 to 30 mph during the
afternoon. Despite the strengthening low-level flow, meaningful
moisture will remain somewhat limited through the day, keeping
precipitation chances near zero.
Mild and breezy conditions will continue tonight as southerly
flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front currently
organizing across the Central Plains. The increasing pressure
gradient will limit overnight cooling, with lows generally
settling into the upper 50s and 60s across the region. Some
increase in low clouds may occur later tonight as moisture slowly
deepens within the boundary layer, but the atmosphere will remain
capped and precipitation-free through the early morning hours
Sunday. Attention will then turn to the strong cold front expected
to surge south through North Texas during the day Sunday, which
will bring a rapid shift in winds aloft and the beginning of a
much more impactful period of weather across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
The primary forecast concern during the extended period will be
the passage of a strong cold front on Sunday followed by a period
of unusually windy and sharply colder conditions through Monday. A
vigorous mid-level trough ejecting across the Central Plains will
drive a rapidly advancing cold front southward through North
Texas Sunday afternoon before pushing through Central Texas by
early evening. Ahead of the boundary, continued warm advection and
breezy south winds will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s
and mid 80s again. However, the usual diurnal temperature curve
will be disrupted once the front arrives. This means several
locations will likely observe their daytime high temperatures
during the late morning or early afternoon with steadily falling
temperatures through the remainder of the day as strong cold
advection overspreads the region.
Wind will become the dominant impact immediately behind the
front. A sharp pressure rise coupled with strong cold advection
will produce a rapid shift to strong northerly winds Sunday
afternoon and evening. Sustained wind speeds of 25 to 35 mph with
gusts approaching or exceeding 50 mph appear increasingly likely,
especially across the northwestern half of the forecast area. The
most recent deterministic NBM guidance trended slightly lower with
wind speeds, however ensemble probabilities continue to highlight
a 30 to 50 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph across
much of North and Central Texas. As a result, forecast wind speeds
were increased closer to the 90th percentile of available
guidance to better account for the potential for these stronger
post-frontal winds. A Wind Advisory will likely be issued later
today as confidence continues to increase that sustained winds of
20 to 30 mph will persist for several hours Sunday afternoon and
evening.
The combination of these strong winds and rapidly drying air will
also create a period of dangerous fire weather conditions along
and west of the Interstate 35 corridor Sunday afternoon. Relative
humidity values are expected to fall into the 15 to 25 percent
range in the wake of the front while northwest winds of 25 to 35
mph (and gusts to 50 mph) develop. These conditions will support
rapid fire spread should any fires ignite. A Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for this area through the early evening.
By Sunday night and Monday morning, the full magnitude of the
cold air mass will become established across the region.
Persistent north winds combined with temperatures falling into the
upper 20s and 30s will produce wind chills in the teens and 20s
by daybreak Monday, an unusually cold start for mid-March. Monday
will remain blustery and much cooler than recent days with
afternoon highs likely confined to the upper 40s and 50s despite
mostly sunny skies. Winds should gradually diminish Monday night
allowing temperatures to fall once again into the upper 20s and
30s.
The broader pattern becomes considerably quieter through the
remainder of the week as the upper trough departs and mid-level
ridging gradually builds across the Southern Plains. Southerly
return flow will redevelop by Tuesday, initiating a steady warming
trend through midweek. Temperatures should climb back into the
70s and 80s by Wednesday with parts of the region even reaching
the low 90s on Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions are expected
to prevail through the latter half of the week, although a
combination of warming temperatures, breezy south winds, and
increasingly dry fuels may allow some elevated fire weather
concerns to reemerge across portions of the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
VFR conditions will prevail across the Metroplex airports through
much of the day today with south winds around 10-15 kts this
morning increasing through the afternoon as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the cold front. Expect sustained winds near 15
kts with gusts to 25 kts developing by mid afternoon at all
Metroplex terminals. Skies will remain mostly clear aside from
occasional high cirrus streaming north across North Texas this
morning.
Shallow low-level moisture has brought a narrow surge of stratus
into Central Texas this morning with MVFR ceilings possible at
Waco through roughly 15Z. Low-level flow is veering slightly which
should keep this plume of low cigs east of the Metroplex terminals
this morning. By late tonight into early Sunday morning, deeper
moisture return will support MVFR ceilings spreading north into
D10, most likely impacting KDFW, KDAL, and KGRK. Winds will also
continue increasing overnight with gusty south winds persisting
into Sunday morning ahead of the approaching cold front.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 63 80 34 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 81 63 85 35 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 78 59 75 29 / 0 0 30 10
Denton 80 60 77 27 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 79 62 78 31 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 82 64 83 34 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 80 61 78 32 / 0 0 10 0
Corsicana 82 64 81 34 / 0 0 10 10
Temple 82 62 84 34 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 85 61 79 29 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for TXZ091-092-100>103-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
