Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

430
FXUS64 KFWD 120652
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday,
  before a strong cold front brings colder temperatures on Sunday
  with highs in the 40s and 50s.

- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Above normal temperatures will continue today, with a weak cold
front sagging into North Texas during the daytime. Aside from a
north wind shift around 10 mph, this boundary will have little
impact on sensible weather with minimal cold advection behind it.
Prior to the front`s arrival, increasing moisture content within
strengthening southerly low-level flow should send a swath of low
stratus and perhaps some fog into parts of Central/East Texas
this morning which will mix out with daytime mixing as surface
winds veer westerly. Some of this fog may even briefly become
dense roughly southeast of a Temple to Palestine line before
visibilities quickly improve by mid-morning. Highs will be in the
70s south of the frontal boundary and mostly in the mid/upper 60s
across North Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Low-level flow will already begin recovering to southerly on
Saturday which will allow temperatures to climb above normal once
again with highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Since today`s front
will not scour moisture from Central Texas, renewed warm
advection should provide sufficient lift for some light
precipitation across our southern zones during the daytime on
Saturday with chances for measurable rainfall of 10-20%. The vast
majority of the area will remain dry and unseasonably warm. A much
stronger cold front is progged to move into the area late
Saturday night and Sunday morning associated with a stronger
Northern Plains trough and surface high pressure becoming anchored
over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Post-frontal gusty north
winds will keep temperatures much cooler on Sunday with highs
likely only reaching the 40s. Rain showers could accompany this
boundary through parts of Central Texas where lingering moisture
will still exist, but the frontal passage will be dry for most of
the CWA. A renewed warm advection regime will take shape through
the first half of next week, but it remains unclear how much
moisture recovery will be able to occur ahead of another midweek
system. For now, rain chances through the remainder of the
forecast are below mentionable levels, and a return to warm and
dry weather is the most likely solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with passing
cirrus. This morning`s fog and low stratus will remain well
southeast of Metroplex airports, but could briefly encroach on
Waco after sunrise. A weak cold front will result in a north wind
shift around midday for D10 TAF sites and closer to 22z for Waco,
but speeds will remain light at 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  45  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                69  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               64  41  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              67  40  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  42  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              67  46  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             65  43  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           67  47  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              67  44  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       70  42  69  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion