Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
451
FXUS64 KFWD 231908
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms are expected this evening through
Monday evening. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding are the
primary threats, although some storms west of I-35 could produce
isolated large hail this evening into tonight.
- An increased potential for severe weather may materialize south
of I-20 and along/east of I-35 Monday afternoon into early
Monday evening. All severe weather hazards, including a couple
tornadoes, will be possible.
- A return to cool and dry conditions is expected by the middle of
the week through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and
60s. Rain chances return next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
An upper-level low currently situated near the Four Corners region
will shift northeast toward the Central Plains later tonight.
Multiple embedded shortwaves on the southern periphery of this low
will traverse over the Southern Plains later this evening through
Monday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to North and
Central Texas. Strong low/mid-level moisture return is already
occurring ahead of this system across parts of West Texas and the
Texas Panhandle. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in
coverage this afternoon shifting east toward our Big Country
counties along/west of Highway 281 by the 3-4PM timeframe.
Sufficient shear, mid-level lapse rates near 7 degreeC/km, and
elevated instability on the order of ~750-1250 J/kg will support
an isolated large hail threat across our western counties into the
evening hours.
As synoptic-scale ascent expands over our region, expect shower
and thunderstorm coverage to increase across all of North Texas
after midnight tonight and into Monday morning. Unseasonably high
PWATs and the potential for training thunderstorms will lead to an
isolated flash flooding threat through Monday morning along and
north of the I-20 corridor. Expect a widespread 1-3" of rain
across North Texas with a 10% chance for totals greater than 4"
through midday Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this
area tonight through 3PM Monday afternoon. Note that all of the
overnight/morning activity will remain elevated, thus the severe
threat will remain very low. However, a few more robust cores
capable of producing small hail will remain possible.
A surface low will develop along the Oklahoma/Kansas border by
late Monday morning dragging an attendant dryline/Pacific front
east across our forecast area during the day. This boundary will
provide focus for a disorganized line of thunderstorms that will
shift toward East Texas during the afternoon hours. Ahead of these
storms, a surface warm front will quickly surge northward into
parts of Central and East Texas. Rich, boundary-layer moisture and
a plume of 1250-1750 J/kg SBCAPE will move over much of East-
Central and East Texas by the early afternoon hours behind this
boundary. Strong deep-layer and low-level wind shear will overlap
the uncapped warm sector for several hours tomorrow afternoon
promoting a severe weather threat for locations generally south of
I-20 and along/east of I-35 from 1-6PM Monday. Storm mode at this
time remains a bit uncertain, but confidence is increasing in a
few supercell thunderstorms developing along the tail-end of the
line of storms and ahead of the line within the open warm sector.
All storm hazards will be possible in this scenario, including the
potential for a couple tornadoes. If storm mode remains messier
and/or cloud cover inhibits the destabilization of the atmosphere
tomorrow afternoon, then the overall severe weather threat will
remain lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
All thunderstorm activity should exit into East Texas by 6-7PM
Monday evening as a much drier airmass ushers in over the region.
This system`s actual cold front will arrive early Tuesday keeping
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday afternoon. A
stronger push of cold air (dry frontal passage) will enter North
and Central Texas Tuesday evening-Tuesday night. This will allow
for cooler temperatures by the middle of the week, including the
Thanksgiving Holiday. Expect overnight lows in the 30s-40s and
afternoon highs in the 50s-low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Rain
chances may trend higher again next weekend as moisture increases
ahead of the next forecasted upper-level system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all North and Central Texas
terminals through this evening. SCT to BKN cigs near 4-5kft will
increase in coverage later this afternoon as greater quality
moisture shifts from west to east over the region. Chances for
showers and storms and MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will gradually increase
after 05Z-06Z tonight within D10. Expect MVFR in D10 by ~07Z and
IFR by ~11Z-12Z. TSRA impacts at the Metroplex terminals are most
likely within the 12Z-16Z timeframe Monday morning. Pockets of
heavy rainfall, gusty winds to 25 kts, and small hail will be the
primary hazards.
By midday Monday, thunderstorm chances will shift into parts of
Central and East Texas with TSRA impacts at KACT likely toward
the end of this TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 58 72 51 / 10 100 90 0
Waco 68 61 73 50 / 10 50 90 10
Paris 65 54 65 50 / 0 90 90 20
Denton 66 54 71 46 / 10 100 90 0
McKinney 66 55 70 49 / 0 90 100 10
Dallas 68 58 72 52 / 10 90 90 10
Terrell 69 57 71 51 / 0 80 90 10
Corsicana 70 62 76 54 / 0 40 80 20
Temple 69 61 76 50 / 10 40 90 10
Mineral Wells 70 55 76 46 / 40 100 90 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Monday afternoon
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>120-123-129.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
