Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
879
FXUS64 KFWD 151840
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms are expected through this evening.
There is a risk for strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging winds generally near and north of I-20/I-30
across North Texas.
- A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied
by scattered showers and storms.
- Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before
temperatures begin to warm back up.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday Night)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Another cloudy and breezy start of the day as temperatures climb
into the mid to upper 70s early this afternoon. Recent radar
imagery shows light rain/drizzle across portions of North and
Central Texas. This is associated with a passing mid-level wave
and a moist environment in the lower levels. For this afternoon
and evening, we`re monitoring two areas for showers/storms to
develop. First, we will have our typical WAA showers and storms
across Central Texas. This activity should remain sub-severe with
occasional lightning as the main threat. The second area we`re
watching is our northwestern counties and along the Red River.
More organized storms are expected to develop near/along a
dryline to our west and move into portions of our area through
the afternoon and evening. While coverage of severe storms is
still uncertain, some of them will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is lower, but it can`t
completely be ruled out. Storms may merge into a cluster as they
move eastward through North Texas this evening. The best potential
for severe storms is expected to remain generally along/north of
US-380, but we can`t rule a storm or two farther south (near the
I-20/I-30 corridor) that could remain strong and/or severe. Our
confidence remains lower with the southward extend of this
activity as our environment remains more stable.
After this activity weakens and/or moves out of our area around
midnight, quiet weather is expected the rest of the night with
low clouds returning Thursday morning. Overall, quiet weather is
expected tomorrow with highs in the mid/upper 80s and clearing
skies.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
The long-term portion of the forecast continues to highlight the
well anticipated cold front on Saturday followed by quiet weather
through Sunday and low rain chances early next week.
We will wrap up the week with fairly quiet and warm weather. The
upper level trough responsible to push the surface cold front on
Saturday will approach the Four Corners with the surface dryline
staying far west of our area. We should remain mostly dry but
surface winds will increase during the day. The best lift for
organized storms is expected to remain to our northwest towards
Oklahoma. Outside of the windy conditions, highs will climb into
the mid/upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
The cold front is still expected to arrive to North Texas late
Friday night into Saturday morning with showers and storms
developing mainly behind the boundary on Saturday. A cooldown
will follow as well with breezy northerly winds continue all day
Saturday. This will keep temperatures in the 60s during the day
and overnight lows in the 40s Saturday night into Sunday. The
cooler weather and dry weather will persist on Sunday, but we
could see rain chances coming back to the region early next week.
A few upper level disturbances are forecast to swing by the
southern Plains and could bring some scattered activity through
at least mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Concerns...isolated storms this afternoon and evening with
another round of low ceilings Thursday morning.
Widespread clouds near 3-6 kft will to continue the rest of the
afternoon with more clearing in the evening. VFR should prevail
through the overnight hours before another period of MVFR
ceilings arrive Thursday morning (between 12-16Z). Scattered
showers and storms will continue to develop this afternoon and
early evening mainly along the Red River and northwest of the
sites. Some storms may become strong or severe with large hail
and damaging winds. As expected, this will impact some of the
northwestern arrivals/departures through the evening. Our
thinking is that most of this activity should remain north, but
we can`t rule a few storms to approach the vicinity of any of the
North Texas sites. ACT may also see a few showers and an isolated
storm or two develop later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
breezy south winds will prevail through the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested along and north of
the I-20/I-30 corridor through the evening. Even if activation is
not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 67 87 67 / 50 30 10 10
Waco 80 67 84 67 / 50 40 0 0
Paris 80 65 82 65 / 50 70 10 10
Denton 79 64 87 66 / 50 30 10 10
McKinney 79 66 85 67 / 50 40 10 10
Dallas 81 68 87 67 / 50 30 0 0
Terrell 81 66 84 67 / 50 50 10 0
Corsicana 83 68 86 68 / 50 50 0 0
Temple 81 67 86 67 / 40 40 0 0
Mineral Wells 81 63 88 65 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
