Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
184
FXUS64 KFWD 182303
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across
Central Texas through the evening, and will come to an end
overnight.
- Seasonably mild weather is expected through the middle of next
week.
- Daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible much of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Areas of rain, with embedded thunderstorms, continue to stream
across North Texas early this afternoon, roughly parallel with the
I-20 corridor. This activity is occurring in a zone of ascent
along a tight southwest to northeast-oriented 850-700 mb thermal
gradient. This axis of precipitation should shift southward and
slowly diminish in areal coverage through the mid to later
afternoon/early evening hours. Have kept fairly high pops from the
I-20 corridor southward, tapering to chance pops in the Central
Texas counties early this evening. Elevated instability is
steadily diminishing in our southern counties, but enough residual
CAPE may exist to promote some small hail with a strong storm or
two this afternoon.
Subsidence aloft will build southward across our region tonight
as a large scale trough over the Plains/Great Lakes shifts
eastward, and ridging commences from our area westward. Clouds
will steadily erode from north to south late this afternoon
through the evening, yielding mostly clear skies tonight and
Sunday.
Strong, gusty north winds, coupled with chilly temps and
intermittent rain, have created raw conditions over our region
today. These winds should abate this evening, allowing overnight
lows to dip well down into the 40s areawide. A few spots near the
Red River may actually reach the upper 30s, which is at least 10
degrees below normal for this point in April. Daytime highs Sunday
afternoon will rebound into the lower 70s under sunny skies,
leading to a picture perfect spring day in North Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
The first half of the upcoming workweek will feature near normal
daytime temperatures, as a broad upper level ridge develops over
the middle of the CONUS. Guidance suggests that at least one,
possibly two transient waves will zip eastward across Central
Texas within the base of the ridge during the first half of the
week. Increased moisture transport from the south, and weak
forcing for ascent will lead to scattered showers, and possibly
thunderstorms, across the southern half of the area Monday night
through Tuesday evening. Based on ensemble solutions, significant
additional rainfall amounts are not expected with this next round
of precipitation.
A drier and warmer trend is expected through the late week, with
daytime temperatures returning to the 80s in most areas. By week`s
end, a southwesterly flow regime will become reestablished across
the Southern Plains as a split trough moves into the Northern
Rockies and Intermountain Region. Another round of shower and
thunderstorm activity returns to the eastern portions of North
Texas from late Friday into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Lingering light high-based precipitation will come to an end
across D10 in the next hour or so, while showery activity is
likely to linger at Waco into the evening. While lightning
activity has ended in North Texas, a few of lightning strikes are
possible across parts of Central Texas through about 02z before
this potential comes to an end. A steady north-south clearing of
the mid cloud deck will occur tonight, with only a few high clouds
present through the rest of the TAF period. Winds are currently
light northerly in the wake of this morning`s cold front, but they
will return to ENE and eventually ESE during the daytime tomorrow
while remaining around 10 kts or less.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 74 52 75 / 10 0 0 10
Waco 43 72 49 68 / 20 0 0 20
Paris 40 72 46 74 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 41 72 45 74 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 43 73 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 46 74 51 75 / 20 0 0 10
Terrell 43 73 48 75 / 20 0 0 0
Corsicana 45 75 51 76 / 20 0 0 10
Temple 46 74 51 71 / 20 0 10 20
Mineral Wells 40 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
