Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
620
FXUS64 KFWD 220021
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread travel impacts due to wintry precipitation are
expected to begin Friday afternoon and will continue into Sunday
morning.
- Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 10 below zero could
result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Extreme cold
will become life threatening to people and animals especially
Saturday and Sunday nights.
- Very cold temperatures will increase the risk of broken pipes
and water damage due to a prolonged period of sub-freezing
temperatures Friday afternoon through Tuesday.
- Make winter preparations today and tomorrow!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
A weak cold front will continue to push through the area this
afternoon with light northerly winds behind it. As drier air
arrives, clouds will steadily shift to the east as they
lift/scatter out. Afternoon highs will likely reach the mid/upper
60s for many as the sunshine returns but some locations may still
stay in the upper 50s. Rain chances will also come to an end this
afternoon with only some light rain/drizzle expected across our
southern counties.
A surface high will settle across the region this evening keeping
the winds light and variable through tonight. Overnight lows will
be a few degrees cooler (upper 30s to low 40s) for portions of
North Texas due to weaker winds and mostly clear skies. Clouds
will begin to spread across Central/East Texas early Thursday
morning keeping the lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. As the
surface high departs our area tomorrow, clouds will continue to
spread across the entire region. Mostly cloudy skies will keep
daytime highs in the upper 50s and 60s with light easterly winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
...Widespread mixed precipitation and dangerous cold likely Friday
into the early next week...
What changed:
An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all North and Central
Texas from Saturday evening through Monday morning.
Discussion:
Our attention remains on the late week and weekend system as a
winter storm will impact all of North and Central Texas. Not much
has changed in the overall timing of the system with a strong
shortwave arriving early Friday followed by the very cold arctic
airmass later in the day. Isentropic ascent will spread across the
region increasing the coverage of rain throughout the day.
Precipitation is still expected to begin to transition to a more
wintry mix (predominately sleet) along the Red River late Friday
afternoon or evening. The transition should steadily shift south
into North Texas and eventually Central Texas from Friday night
into Saturday morning as the colder airmass arrives.
Multiple round of mixed precipitation (mostly sleet) will
continue Saturday through Sunday morning as strong synoptic
ascent remains across our region. We should finally see the
precipitation come to an end late Sunday morning or early
afternoon as the upper level disturbance departs our region.
Unfortunately, even as the precipitation ends...the very cold
temperatures will continue through early next week with dangerous
wind chills expected. We`re looking at low temperatures in the
single digits and teens with wind chill values as low as 5 to 10
below zero Saturday and Sunday nights.
While we could see a couple of hours near or above freezing on
Monday, prepare for below freezing temperatures through Tuesday
morning or early afternoon.
What`s still uncertain:
As expected, there is still plenty of uncertainty on when rain
will give way to wintry precip for each location and the exact
accumulations expected for each p-type. Now that we`re in the
realm of medium-res (and eventually high-res) model guidance,
confidence is increasing in what vertical thermal profiles might
look like over the duration of this event. The latest guidance
continues to be in good agreement that sleet will likely be the
predominant precipitation type for North Texas with better
chances for freezing rain across Central Texas. While the
official forecast will show a range of snow/ice accumulations, be
aware that those will likely change as new data arrives. While
most of the accumulation across North Texas will likely be in the
form of sleet, freezing rain can`t be ruled out just yet.
What to do:
- Continue your winter weather preparations today and tomorrow.
Prepare your home and business, especially those unprotected
pipes. Make sure to check on friends and family, and consider
delaying weekend travel plans.
- Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you
must go outside. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do
not use generators or grills inside.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
VFR conditions will prevail this evening beneath light northerly
flow as weak surface high pressure settles over North and Central
Texas. Winds will become light/variable overnight, then trend
easterly by Thursday morning. Stratus will redevelop late tonight
with MVFR ceilings spreading across the Metroplex terminals
between 10-14Z. Probability of a brief IFR window is increasing
(now up to 30-50%), so a TEMPO group for IFR cigs has been
introduced for 14-17Z at DFW/DAL/FTW/AFW/GKY. The greatest
confidence in IFR remains across Central Texas including KACT
where low clouds and BR are expected to arrive earlier (by 09Z)
with occasional LIFR possible before improvement begins late
morning. Ceilings should lift but largely remain MVFR (BKN015)
into the afternoon as low-level moisture lingers, with gradual
improvements expected beyond this TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 42 61 43 / 20 0 0 40
Waco 71 46 64 51 / 40 0 0 20
Paris 57 37 54 39 / 50 0 0 40
Denton 66 35 59 38 / 10 0 0 40
McKinney 64 38 59 40 / 30 0 0 40
Dallas 65 42 61 44 / 20 0 0 40
Terrell 64 41 61 42 / 50 0 0 40
Corsicana 61 46 65 49 / 60 0 0 30
Temple 71 45 67 52 / 40 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 64 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
