Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
615
FXUS64 KFWD 290431
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1131 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A couple of severe storms will continue for another few hours
before diminishing overnight. Very large hail is the main
threat.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across Central
TX on Wednesday. The threat for severe weather is considerably
lower on Wednesday.
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region
on Thursday and especially Friday with rainfall amounts of 1 to
3 inches expected. Some flooding will be possible during this
time.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
A couple of severe storms continue late this evening across our
far southern counties but these will weaken over the next couple
of hours with increasing inhibition. Our frontal boundary is
currently draped along the I-20 corridor and will continue to push
south through the overnight hours. There`s still plenty of MUCAPE
available for the ongoing convection to sustain itself for another
few hours, but a gradual decrease in intensity is expected. The
front should continue to push into Central TX overnight and will
be a focus for renewed shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
into the early morning hours mainly south of I-20. We`ll have PoPs
around 20% for any redevelopment of overnight activity in this
area.
With the frontal boundary draped to our south on Wednesday and
weak perturbations traversing the base of low amplitude troughing
through the Southern Plains, we`ll maintain persistent forcing for
ascent through the day. Combined with PW values >1.8" and
sustained low level warm advection atop the shallow frontal layer,
we`ll likely maintain some scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms through the day Wednesday mainly south of I-20.
While MUCAPE will be considerably lower during the day, we can`t
rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with hail being the
primary threat. Hail sizes would be considerably smaller that what
we saw on Tuesday. Rain chances will generally be 40-60% across
our southern counties and 10-20% north of I-20. Much cooler air
will be in place behind the front with highs expected to remain in
the 60s all day.
A period of active weather will continue into Thursday as a
stronger shortwave trough spreads out of northwest Mexico and into
far West Texas late in the day. Persistent isentropic ascent atop
our cooler near surface layer combined with ample deep layer
moisture will result in periodic showers and a few storms through
the day Thursday. While PoPs will be relatively high areawide
(50-60%), most areas will pick up 1/2" of rain or less on
Thursday. The heavier rainfall is expected late Thursday night
into Friday and is discussed below.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
With strong forcing for ascent overspreading all of North and
Central Texas late Thursday night, convection (mainly showers)
will increase in intensity near the remnant frontal boundary which
will still be across our southern counties. This activity will
slowly spread north through the night into early Friday morning as
the strongest height falls move into North Texas. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain is expected across much of the region
through the day Friday with periodic showers and thunderstorms.
The heaviest rainfall amounts will likely be near and south of
I-20 where 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected. Lighter but non-
trivial amounts are expected north of I-20 and should total 1 to
1.5 inches through Friday evening. While there is some potential
for flooding of low lying areas, the overall rain rates and speed
of the entire system should keep the threat of flash flooding
isolated to areas where any training convection sets up. All of
this activity will move to the east of the area late Friday night
into Saturday morning as the main upper trough pulls away. With
widespread rain and cloud cover, high temperatures will likely
remain in the upper 50s making for a cold first day of May.
A nice weekend is expected in the wake of all the rain on Friday.
Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s on Saturday and into the
upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Pleasant weather will continue into the early part of next week
with additional storm chances likely by the latter part of next
week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Clouds continue to develop in the post frontal airmass to the
north of I-20 and we expect a gradual transition to MVFR cigs over
the next few hours. MVFR cigs will likely persist for much of the
day Wednesday along with a redevelopment of showers mainly to the
south. At this time, we`ll leave precip out of the current TAF,
but may need at least some VCSH at some point on Wednesday.
Otherwise, north winds will prevail through the period with cigs
improving a bit late Wednesday evening.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 67 61 66 / 20 20 30 60
Waco 69 71 62 70 / 70 50 30 60
Paris 58 69 57 66 / 10 30 30 50
Denton 58 68 58 66 / 10 20 20 60
McKinney 59 68 58 66 / 10 20 30 60
Dallas 61 68 61 66 / 20 30 30 60
Terrell 62 69 60 67 / 20 40 40 60
Corsicana 67 70 62 69 / 40 60 50 60
Temple 72 73 62 73 / 40 60 30 50
Mineral Wells 58 67 57 66 / 20 10 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
