Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
886
FXUS64 KFWD 031845
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
145 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and storms will affect the area from this
afternoon through much of Saturday, with a threat for a few severe
thunderstorms and localized flooding.
- A cold frontal passage on Saturday will bring a few days of
near or below normal temperatures from Easter Sunday into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
The weather pattern across the country is largely influenced by a
low pressure system currently moving east across the Rockies.
Ahead of this area of low pressure, height falls are leading to a
northward mass response evident by the low clouds currently
impacting much of North and Central Texas. With deep-layer
southerly flow in place, abundant moisture will continue to work
its way into our region. By this evening, precipitable water
values will increase to near daily maximum values.
A surface low is now deepening across Central Kansas along a
sharp temperature gradient. Temperatures behind the front are in
the 40s and 50s, meanwhile, ahead of the front, they are in the
70s. This ongoing deepening will lead to two distinct features
that will each cause precipitation across our region over the next
24 hours.
The first feature that will develop will be a dryline across the
Big Country. This dryline will continue to sharpen this
afternoon, marking the rapid transition from the moist airmass
across our region to the dry airmass to our west. The dryline is
expected to set up well west of our region, near the Midland area.
As afternoon destabilization occurs, thunderstorm activity will
develop well to our west. Storms will then begin shifting eastward
arriving at our western-most counties closer to 9-10pm. This
initial wave of thunderstorm activity will be pushing into higher
CIN due to the stronger layer of warmer air at around 5000 feet
AGL. However, sufficient instability and shear will be in place to
continue to warrant a mention of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Instability on the order of 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear closer
to 40 kts will support rotating updrafts capable of large hail and
damaging winds. Something to note is that as storms move east
this evening, the low-level jet will strengthen supplying slightly
more shear to the lower atmosphere. Although not overly high,
there will be a low potential for a tornado or two.
The next wave of precipitation will arrive with the incoming cold
front currently slated to cross the Red River closer to 2-3AM
Saturday morning. With about 1000 J/Kg of instability in place,
the threat for strong to isolated severe storms will persist.
Given this convection will be attached to the incoming cold front,
a few line segments capable of damaging winds cannot be ruled
out. Additionally, the shallow nature of this front will keep
strong forced ascent behind the surface front which will promote
periods of heavy rain. Rainfall amounts will most likely fall
between 2-3 inches across a large portion of North Texas. Having
said that, there are indications that a slow-moving storm, or
cluster of storms, may produce isolated amounts of 3-5" of rain
before the rain moves completely out of the area. The latest model
iterations continue to keep the threat for 3-5 inches of rain
below 20%. Nonetheless, given this is an overnight heavy rain
event, if you drive up on a flooded roadway, remember to turn
around and seek alternate routes.
The cold front will continue its southeastward trajectory
tomorrow, pushing precipitation chances to the southeast. By the
late morning hours, a drying trend is expected from northwest to
southeast with breezy northerly winds in place. Winds will be
between 15-20 mph with a few gusts closer to 30 mph. Additionally,
cooler weather is expected with daytime highs in the mid to upper
60s in North Texas and lower to mid 70s in Central Texas.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Thanks to the arrival of the post-front dry air, a precipitation-
free Easter is in store across all of North and Central Texas.
Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s with partly to mostly
cloudy skies.
Surface high pressure across the Central Plains will keep the
quiet weather in place through the first half of the week. As the
high shifts to the east next week, return flow will make its way
back into the region supplying increased moisture and warmer
conditions. This should set the stage for another round of
precipitation the latter half of next week as troughing begins to
take shape across the western CONUS. For now, we`ll keep PoPs
20-40% Thursday and Friday with higher rain chances next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
A VFR ceiling is in place across North and Central Texas,
however, expect poor flying conditions to commence tonight as
thunderstorm activity inches closer to the region.
Prior to the arrival of the thunderstorms, gusty afternoon winds
will continue with a few gusts approaching 25-30 kts. This
evening, expect a MVFR deck to slide in from the south, impacting
KACT first, followed by all of the D10 TAF sites.
A dryline in West Texas will become the focus for thunderstorm
activity west of D10. Storms are expected to gradually weaken as
they move east with minimal impacts within the D10 TAF sites. A
cold front will be sliding south out of Oklahoma early Saturday
morning, leading to a line of thunderstorms across all TAF sites.
As the front moves through expect gusty northerly winds to move in
with a line of thunderstorms and IFR ceilings. For North Texas,
the latest timing of the front is around 10z. For Waco, the front
is likely to arrive closer to 14z with similar conditions compared
to North Texas.
Dry air will filter in from the north late tomorrow morning,
leading to a return of VFR conditions. Northerly breezy conditions
are expected with mid-level clouds remaining in place throughout
the day.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon
and this evening west of I-35. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 68 50 71 / 90 100 0 0
Waco 60 70 49 67 / 70 90 10 0
Paris 55 66 45 70 / 90 100 0 0
Denton 53 67 44 70 / 100 90 0 0
McKinney 56 67 46 70 / 90 100 0 0
Dallas 57 69 50 71 / 90 100 0 0
Terrell 58 69 47 70 / 80 100 10 0
Corsicana 62 72 50 72 / 70 100 10 0
Temple 62 72 50 70 / 60 100 10 10
Mineral Wells 53 68 45 70 / 90 90 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
