Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
947
FXUS64 KFWD 292357
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
657 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be above normal for the next few days, with
no chance for rain through Tuesday.
- A pattern change will allow daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to return late Tuesday through next weekend. A
few strong or severe storms are possible during this time
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Much warmer conditions are ongoing at this time with temperatures
15-20 degrees higher compared to 24 hours ago. This will continue
to be the case through the rest of the afternoon thanks to the
quick return of southerly winds last night. With a surface high in
the East Coast and a surface low across the Northern Plains,
we`ll continue to see those southerly to southwesterly winds
through tomorrow night.
Similar to the warmer daytime temperatures, we`ll see a similar
trend overnight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s come early
Monday morning. Southerly flow in the lower-levels will help draw
a morning layer of stratus clouds that will gradually erode late
Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, temperatures will be in the
80s with breezy southerly winds near 20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
Tuesday will mark the beginning of a more typical springtime
weather pattern with periodic rain chances going into Easter
weekend. This shift will be driven by the arrival of a longwave
trough across the Western CONUS, not only enhancing our moisture
content throughout North and Central Texas, but also providing
elevated impulses that will provide waves of forcing for ascent.
The first wave of ascent is likely to arrive late Tuesday into
Wednesday. In the lower-levels of the atmosphere, a cold front
will be sliding south out of the Central Plains. As it does so,
there continues to be indications that a surface low will develop
along the leading edge of the front. This will promote the
development of a dryline that will also become a potential focus
for thunderstorm activity. The main question will be whether the
presence of an elevated mixed layer will inhibit the development
of thunderstorms. The global guidance suggest there will be a
potential for a few storms to stream in from the west late in the
evening and overnight. Regional models have a much stronger EML,
keeping North and Central Texas precipitation free. With ensemble
guidance favoring a few showers and storms, we`ll maintain
precipitation chances between 20-50%.
Going into Wednesday, we`ll once again need to monitor the
development of the dryline as it progresses east into parts of
North and Central Texas. A cold front will advance southward,
however, latest model guidance stalls the front across Oklahoma,
keeping North and Central Texas in a warm and moist environment. A
shortwave will be moving overhead during this time frame as well,
providing additional support for the development of thunderstorms
across the region. Once again, the parameter space will be
favorable for at least a few strong storms Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
We`ll maintain persistent troughing across the region through the
end of the week, continuing our rain chances going into Easter
weekend. Although it`s too early to confidently say when/where it
will rain this weekend, the pattern looks favorable for some
degree of thunderstorm activity mainly Friday and Saturday. By
Easter Sunday, a cold front is expected to move southward during
the day, driving thunderstorm activity south with cooler air
surging in behind the front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026
VFR conditions will continue this evening with south winds
decreasing to 10-11 knots. Overnight, MVFR cigs will spread
northward and reach ACT around 09Z and Metroplex airports around
12Z, with these cigs expected to last through 17Z before breaking
up. A return to VFR conditions is anticipated after 17Z tomorrow
with gusty south winds of 15-20 knots and a few gusts up to 30
knots at times.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 62 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 60 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 59 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 61 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 63 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 61 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 63 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 61 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 58 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
