Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
486
FXUS64 KFWD 131043
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today with hot and
dry weather expected to continue into next week.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Hot and dry conditions will persist to end the week as mid level
ridging remains in firm control over Southern Plains weather.
Sunny skies, temperatures at or above 100 degrees, low humidity,
and breezy winds will all lead to a continued grass fire threat
across the region Thursday and Friday afternoons. Persistent lee
side troughing across the Central Plains will help maintain a
modest pressure gradient across North Texas and southerly winds
will remain breezy as a result. Low level flow above the surface
will be a little more southwesterly Thursday afternoon which
should promote deeper mixing, but also some warmer temperatures.
While dewpoints should fall appreciably in the afternoon, actual
air temperatures will climb to 103 degrees or higher in several
locations, particularly across our northwest CWA. As a result, the
current Heat Advisory looks good and no changes are planned at
this time.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough moving westward across
the western Gulf toward Deep South Texas at this hour. While there
isn`t much surface reflection and we likely won`t see any
precipitation out of this feature, low level wind fields tied to
the low are a little stronger. This may allow some higher dewpoint
air to spread a little farther inland on Friday across our Central
TX counties where additional heat advisories may be needed.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
No meaningful pattern change is expected through the middle part
of next week with mid and upper level ridging remaining in control
of North Texas weather. The center of the ridge axis will shift
westward from the lower Mississippi River Valley on Saturday back
to the Four Corners region by Tuesday. While this will allow weak
summertime fronts to slide southward across the eastern CONUS,
any associated rainfall will be well removed from our area. Mid
level height anomalies will continue to support above normal
temperatures and below normal rainfall through Wednesday.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026
VFR will prevail through the period with breezy south winds around
20 kt along with some higher gusts. Patchy MVFR cigs in Central TX
may skirt Waco this morning, but no significant impacts of
duration are expected. Breezy conditions will continue into
tonight.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 79 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 100 78 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 101 76 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 102 77 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 80 101 81 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 101 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 100 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
