Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
145
FXUS64 KFWD 251944
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
244 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very hot temperatures will continue this afternoon. An Extreme
Heat Warning or Heat Advisory is in effect for all of North and
Central Texas today and tomorrow.
- An elevated fire threat will continue today across Western
North and Central Texas.
- Low (10-25%) storm chances will return Wednesday afternoon,
bringing the potential for gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
After a round of morning shower and thunderstorm activity, the
precip has largely come to an end with only a ragged sheet of
alto/strato-cumulus left in its wake. A few light rain showers or
sprinkles may still reach the surface over Central Texas this
afternoon, but the chance of measurable precip is 10% or less.
The main impact today will be hot, dry, and breezy weather across
North and Central Texas. A low pressure system is currently
analyzed to our northwest that will slowly slide east and settle
south of OKC this evening. A trailing cold front extends to the
southwest of this low, with a belt of hot, dry, and breezy air
ahead of the front that expands over Western North Texas. This
will promote a locally enhanced fire weather threat across all of
Western North and Central Texas, but especially for areas west
and north of the DFW Metroplex this afternoon and evening.
We are monitoring a weak shortwave trough/MCV moving across
southwest Oklahoma that is advancing toward our northwestern
counties. Most of this activity has been relatively shallow (cloud
bases around 10 kft and cloud tops around 20 kft), so this hasn`t
amounted to much more than a few sprinkles. We expect this trend
to continue through the afternoon and evening.
A (not as) cold front should move across the Red River tonight
into tomorrow morning then stall between DFW/Waco in the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, southerly flow will draw better
moisture north...although there will still be a narrow belt of
dry/breezy air over Western North Texas overnight that continues
to promote an elevated fire threat for some areas. The front will
bring "not as hot" (but still "hot") temperatures and slightly
higher humidity to the region. We have issued a Heat Advisory for
all of North and Central Texas tomorrow. For North Texas/north of
I-20, it will mainly be for heat index values climbing above 105.
For Central Texas/areas south of I-20, it will be for a combo of
temperatures between 103-105 and heat index values between
105-108.
For precip tomorrow...we`re monitoring a couple areas/times that
could impact the region. Any showers and storms tomorrow will have
to contend with a lot of dry air in the sub-cloud layer, so precip
amounts will be very light regardless. The first system will be
associated with a thunderstorm cluster that develops over West
Texas this evening and tonight. It will make a run at our west to
northwest counties near sunrise, but the latest guidance favors
this system becoming outflow dominant with very little precip by
the time is moves into our forecast area. However, the guidance
tends to "dry out" these systems too quick, so we have some 10-20%
PoPs in the forecast tomorrow morning to account for this. The
next focus area for precip tomorrow will be along/ahead of the
cold front where confluence along the boundary may be enough to
initiate a few showers/storms. The sub-cloud air will still be
pretty dry with cloud bases around 7-10 kft, so updrafts should
struggle to get organized into much more than scattered showers.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
The front is forecast to linger over North and Central Texas for
36-48 hours, helping produce scattered showers and storms
Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Most of the precip will
be triggered by transitory shortwaves moving overtop of the front
(usually in the early morning hours) and diurinally-driven popup
showers and storms near the front (usually in the afternoon and
evening hours). Coverage of all precip will be hit-or-miss with
very little rain actually reaching the surface, so although we
have the mention of showers and storms for a few days, I would not
get too encouraged that we will have widespread drought-busting or
even drought-improving rainfall. The front is forecast to wash out
and be replaced by southerly flow on the surface about the same
time that the mid-level high/ridge builds east over North and
Central Texas late this week. This will end rain chances in the
late-week periods with hot and dry weather forecast this weekend
and early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period.
An alto-cumulus cloud deck continues to shift south and out of the
D10 TRACON area, with southerly winds prevailing through the rest
of today and tonight.
Wednesday/tomorrow morning, a weak front looks to move into the
D10 across the OK/TX border, with winds veering from southerly to
westerly and then to northwesterly between 14 and 18Z. PoPs
tomorrow morning still remain low (30%), but an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Given this uncertainty, opted
for a PROB30 -SHRA mention, but our confidence is much higher for
the overall wind pattern shifting southerly to northwesterly.
There is also a low (20% or less) chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms developing in the early to mid afternoon tomorrow.
However, we are not confident enough in either the development or
location of precip to include this in the TAFs ATTM.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 85 102 80 / 20 10 20 30
Waco 103 80 104 79 / 20 0 20 20
Paris 102 79 100 74 / 40 10 20 40
Denton 105 82 101 75 / 20 10 20 20
McKinney 104 82 101 76 / 30 10 20 20
Dallas 105 85 104 80 / 30 10 20 30
Terrell 104 80 104 76 / 40 10 20 30
Corsicana 103 79 104 78 / 20 10 20 20
Temple 103 78 104 79 / 10 0 10 10
Mineral Wells 108 79 102 73 / 20 0 20 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094-
100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ095-106-107-122-
123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Bonnette/Davis
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
