Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
809
FXUS64 KFWD 200711
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
211 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and isolated storms return to the region late Monday
through Wednesday.
- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve
late this week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
With the post-frontal low-level ridge exiting to the east, a
return of south-southeasterly winds is expected to continue across
the state as we head through today. These south winds are
currently driving a slug of abundant Gulf moisture northward up
into the Permian Basin, which will eventually spread a bit further
east into our Big Country counties by daybreak. Aloft, a minute
shortwave is currently transiting across the state, spreading
enough lift to promote showers with occasional embedded lightning
strikes to our west and southwest. Elevated rain showers and
increasing cloud cover will slowly shift into our west and
southwest counties this morning, shifting further east across
North and Central Texas the rest of today. Highest coverage is
expected to remain across western portions of Central Texas, with
more scattered elevated showers further north. The dreary
conditions will in our west/southwest will aid in keeping
temperatures a tad cooler than elsewhere, with highs ranging from
the upper 50s/low 60s in our southwest to the mid 70s in our
northeast where drier and somewhat clearer conditions are
expected. A temporary lull in precipitation is expected this
evening across our region as we go in between shortwaves, though
low chances for rain will still exist at this time.
More widespread showery development is expected overnight through
Tuesday as a stouter shortwave (currently over the Desert
Southwest/Northern Mexico) advances east across the state. More
efficient lift with this disturbance will allow for a west-to-east
blossoming of showers and potentially a rumble of thunder. Once
again, highest coverage will generally be across Central Texas
where the higher moisture content remains. Continued cloud cover
and rain- cooled air will keep afternoon highs in the 60s region-
wide. The showers will exit out of much of the region by late
Tuesday as the shortwave exits into the Deep South, however,
lingering isolated to scattered showers will likely
remain generally near and east of I-35 overnight through
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Low rain chances will continue daily in portions of the region
through the weekend as multiple shortwaves round the base of the
parent longwave trough established over the western half of the
CONUS. With a sharpening dryline west of our North and Central
Texas counties, we`ll remain in the warm sector through Thursday.
While most of the region will likely remain dry on Thursday thanks
to being a bit removed from the best lift and a lingering cap
overhead in the afternoon, we cannot rule out a storm or two
developing in our eastern zones. If a storm is able to break the
cap, the environment would have efficient instability and shear,
as well as steep lapse rates, to promote a threat for strong to
severe hail and winds. The exact potential is quite conditional
and bears watching. Otherwise, a lee-side low will promote breezy
wind with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Thursday.
On Friday, the dryline will shift a bit further east towards the
US-281 corridor, with the potential for isolated to scattered
showers and storms mainly in our northeast. Yet another shortwave
will swing across the base of the trough, sending a cold front
south. Higher coverage of storms looks to remain out of our CWA to
the northeast where the cold front overtakes the dryline. The
front will move into North and Central Texas late Friday into
Saturday, but will likely stall and quickly surge back northward.
Chances for showers and storms will persist through this upcoming
weekend, but it is too early for any specifics on intensity and
location, so check back for more details as they become available.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
East-southeast winds will gradually shift further out of the
southeast later this morning underneath increasing VFR mid and
upper level cloud cover. Southeast winds are expected to continue
at all TAF sites the rest of today. Showers and perhaps an
isolated lightning strike will continue to spread southwest to
northeast over the day today, with impacts expected at ACT
beginning this afternoon. After a lull in precipitation at the
airports, additional, more widespread development is expected to
bloom across the region on early Tuesday, moving over ACT around
06Z and D10 closer to between 09Z. South to southeasterly winds
will persist. Lagging behind a couple hours from the onset of
precipitation will be a deck of MVFR and lower stratus. Highest
potential for IFR or lower cigs is just after the 30 hour extended
TAF and will be addressed in future issuances.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 55 66 59 / 10 50 60 20
Waco 67 55 64 59 / 30 70 80 40
Paris 74 52 65 55 / 0 10 30 20
Denton 72 52 65 56 / 10 50 50 20
McKinney 73 54 65 58 / 0 40 50 20
Dallas 74 56 66 59 / 10 50 60 20
Terrell 73 54 66 58 / 0 40 60 30
Corsicana 75 56 68 61 / 10 60 70 40
Temple 66 55 67 60 / 50 80 80 40
Mineral Wells 68 52 65 56 / 20 70 60 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
