Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
311
FXUS64 KFWD 042353
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
653 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms are possible again tomorrow with
the best coverage mainly along and east of I-35. Lightning,
gusty winds and locally heavy rain will be the main threats.
- Widespread rain and storm chances are forecast Friday night
through Sunday. The severe weather threat is low, but strong
storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall.
- Warm and dry conditions will return next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
Recent radar and satellite imagery show scattered showers already
developing across the region. This will continue to be the trend
through this evening as we remain in this fairly moist and
unstable airmass. The highest coverage (50-60%) is still expected
across Central TX and the southern zones with rain chances
decreasing west of I-35 towards West TX. Similar to what we`ve
seen over the last few days, the main hazards will be lightning,
gusty winds, and locally heavy rain. Rain chances will decrease
tonight, but a few isolated showers/storms may linger into
tonight, mainly east of I-34 towards East TX.
Friday: We will see slightly better lift as an upper level low
ejects from northern Mexico into the region. This will translate
into a more widely scattered showers and storms during the day,
especially in the afternoon and evening. While the overall risk for
severe weather remains low, we could see some gusty winds, small
hail, and locally heavy rain in addition to the lightning threat. An
isolated threat for flash flooding can`t be ruled out, especially if
the same areas see more than one round of heavy rain. Rain and storm
chances will continue into Friday night with the best coverage
across Central TX.
Outside of the rain and clouds, expect temperatures to remain below
normal with highs staying in the 80s today and tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Early Next Week)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
As we been highlighting over the last several days, an unsettled
weekend is in store for us with multiple round of showers and
storms across the region. The upper level trough to our west will
continue to move northeastward Saturday and Sunday spreading
decent large scale lift for widespread rain and scattered storms.
Depending on how fast the upper low moves over across the region,
is when we will see the highest coverage of precipitation. At
this time, it looks like Saturday through Saturday night will be
the most widespread precipitation over North and Central TX. This
doesn`t mean all of us will see rain all day, but plan for
occasional interruptions of outdoor activities as lightning will
be a threat. Additionally, pockets of heavy rain are forecast
before the system moves out the region late Sunday. Average
rainfall totals between 0.5-2.5 inches are expected with isolated
higher amounts up to 3" possible. Details will continue to be
refined as new data arrives. With the clouds and rain chances,
temperatures won`t be as warm as our typical early summer day.
Highs may stay in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees through Sunday.
Low rain chances will linger into Monday, mainly across East TX.
However, we will begin to transition into a more stable weather
pattern as an upper ridge spreads across the region. With that,
temperatures will warm back into the low to mid 90s by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026
VCSH/VCTS will continue near the North and Central Texas terminals
for the next hour with several outflow boundaries lingering
overhead (may lead to some variable winds at times over the next
couple of hours). VFR conditions will prevail until MVFR/IFR cigs
overspread much of the region by 07Z-08Z early Friday morning.
Expect MVFR/IFR cigs to remain overhead until late Friday morning,
potentially extending into the early afternoon for some
locations. There is a low chance for a few isolated showers Friday
morning, but little impacts to the terminals are expected. We
will also be monitoring for a VCTS addition to the TAF tomorrow
afternoon, but confidence is too low for an inclusion at this
moment. Otherwise, expect southeast winds at 5-10 kts gusting to
15 kts at times through the TAF period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 86 72 85 / 20 30 50 80
Waco 71 84 71 84 / 20 30 60 70
Paris 70 83 70 83 / 30 30 30 70
Denton 71 86 71 84 / 10 20 50 70
McKinney 71 85 71 84 / 20 30 40 80
Dallas 72 87 72 86 / 20 30 50 80
Terrell 70 85 71 85 / 30 30 40 80
Corsicana 72 87 73 87 / 30 30 40 70
Temple 71 85 71 85 / 30 30 60 70
Mineral Wells 70 85 69 84 / 10 30 60 80
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
