Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
635
FXUS64 KFWD 271840
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central
Texas today.
- The overall fire threat will be lower today due to increased
cloud cover and lower wind speeds. However, continue to take
caution to avoid sparking wildfires. Smoke from ongoing
wildfires will continue to reduce visibility in some areas.
- Storm chances will be low today, mainly across western North
Texas and Central Texas. There will be a potential for small
hail and strong outflow winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Residual cloudiness associated with this morning`s convective
complex over SW Oklahoma and the western Red River Valley will
continue to erode as it drifts southeastward into DFW and the
northern I-35 corridor this afternoon. Lingering showers just west
of DFW with this earlier activity will soon fizzle out. However,
additional isolated showers and storms are still a small possibility
across most of North Texas, owing to the presence of remnant
boundaries, some cloudy/clear differential heating, and an overall
unstable environment. Any cells that do form have the potential
to produce brief periods of strong gusty winds as well as
occasional lightning. Any activity that develops should dissipate
shortly after sunset.
The healthy northwesterly flow regime in place over the Southern
Plains will start to get displaced Friday as the upper high center
over the Desert Southwest edges back over the region. This
should severely limit any renewed convective development across
North Central Texas tomorrow. Daytime highs will edge up a degree
or two vs. today`s readings, with maxima in the 100-102 degree
range common. Dewpoints will decrease slightly tomorrow, but
should stil remain a few degrees above the drier values we saw a
few days ago. As such, heat indices should remain in the lower
100s to 106 degree range for the most part. We`ll hang onto the
current Heat Advisory for this afternoon, but will hold off on
issuing a new product for tomorrow, given marginal nature of the
ambient temperatures and heat indices. That said, these values may
be highest across the Central Texas counties Friday, and residents
should continue take precautions against the ongoing heat.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
The center of the sprawling upper high over the Southern United
States will become re-established over the Southern and Central
Plains from this weekend through next week. The resultant sensible
weather should contain no mystery whatsoever for anyone at this
point. Subsidence from the ridge will facilitate mostly clear
skies and a near total absence of rainfall through the middle of
next week. The only exception may be across our Central Texas
counties, where some potential limited afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity may occur due to the presence of weak
easterly upper flow and possible inland sea breeze penetrations.
Despite the reinforcing ridge, thicknesses won`t increase all that
much, so daytime highs should "only" top out in the lower 100s
through the period. Afternoon heat indices in some areas may flirt
with the 105-108 degree range next week, potentially necessitating
additional heat advisory issuances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through Friday. A
remnant outflow boundary from early morning convection northwest
of our region has penetrated into the far western and northern
fringes of D10. Late morning convection along this boundary has
currently fizzled as of early afternoon, but renewed development
in D10 is not totally out of the question. Have included VCTS
wording in the 19-22z time frame, though confidence obviously is
not high. Any storms that do manage to form, however, will again
have the potential to produce variable and brief gusty winds.
Othewise, a light north to northeast surface flow will continue
into the evening hours at the D10 sites and Waco, veering to an
east southeast flow closer to daybreak Friday.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 72 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 79 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 75 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 75 100 75 100 / 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ102>107-117>123-
131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
