Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
749
FXUS64 KFWD 272336
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
636 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A relative lull in storm activity is expected Friday and
Saturday with highs near 90 and rain chances generally under
30%.
- Sunday into next work week will potentially see another uptick
in daily rain/thunderstorm chances.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
The majority of the precipitation from our earlier MCV has
crossed the Red River into Oklahoma as of 6:30 PM. With subsident
air moving in behind it, it should be a relatively dry night for
North and Central Texas. There remains a low chance for storms
originating from the Panhandle to move southeast towards our
northwestern counties, but there is uncertainty on just how far
these storms will make it before dying off. Will continue to
advertise 10% chances for rain in our northwest early tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the previous
forecast and the discussion below remains valid.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
A Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) developed early this morning
across Central Texas and has now managed to migrate north into
eastern parts of North Texas. Concentrated forcing for ascent
around the vortex led to heavy rain producing thunderstorms that
generated areas of flooding earlier today. As we progress through
the afternoon, continued ascent in an unstable airmass around the
MCV will generate additional scattered thunderstorms that will
progress north into Oklahoma.
With a continued weakness in the pressure field atop North and
Central Texas, a few isolated showers or storms may develop by the
mid-afternoon hours. The location with the highest rain chances
this afternoon will be in the eastern portions of North and
Central Texas where moisture is most abundant.
For tonight, much of the guidance continues to show minimal
precipitation across North and Central Texas. With weak synoptic
forcing aloft still in place, an isolated shower or two cannot be
ruled out closer to sunrise, however, most locations will be
precipitation-free. Patchy fog may develop closer to sunrise
across Central Texas, leading to temporary reductions in
visibility.
A weak shortwave will be moving closer to North Texas late
Thursday morning which may generate a few additional showers and
isolated storms across North Texas. Confidence in the morning
round of precipitation is low, but it`s something that will
continue to be monitored through the rest of today and tonight.
Temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s with weak
winds in place.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
As the weak trough aloft moves to the east on Friday, we`ll be
left with temporary ridging across North and Central Texas. Most
locations will remain precipitation free with mostly sunny skies
in place. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s
with light southerly winds.
Upper ridging will likely persist through the first half of the
day on Saturday before another period of troughing moves overhead.
This next trough will once again bring low precipitation chances
across much of North and Central Texas as weak embedded
shortwaves move overhead. Confidence in the timing and coverage of
any potential rain remains low this far out.
Going into next week, we`ll maintain deep southerly flow across
the region which should keep a mention of precipitation in the
forecast. No organized thunderstorm activity is expected at this
time given a lack of concentrated strong forcing. This pattern is
more reminiscent of summer-like storms where afternoon
destabilization will lead to a few storms, weakening around
sunset. Given highly local factors will influence the location of
thunderstorm development, the details regarding next week`s
precipitation remain highly uncertain. Make sure to check back in
the coming days for additional information regarding next week`s
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
VFR will prevail the rest of tonight, and streaming upper level
cirrus will continue to spread northward at all TAF sites. Winds
around D10 will continue to be variable in direction with speed
around 5-6 KT or less overnight as a surface low continues to
shift north, while ACT will remain out of the south. Some patchy
mist/fog may develop near daybreak tomorrow, mainly across Central
Texas, and have persisted with the TEMPO group at ACT. D10
terminals have lower chances for this patchy mist, and will keep
them VFR for now. Winds will remain out of the west-northwest much
of the day tomorrow before settling out of the south-southwest
after 00Z.
There continues to be low chances for isolated shower/storm
development tomorrow afternoon across portions of North and
Central Texas, but there is considerable uncertainty in where
convective development will occur. Better chances look to be to
the east of the airports, but will be dependent on any remnant
outflow boundaries from the dissipating storms that approach the
Bowie cornerpost tonight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 87 71 89 / 10 20 10 10
Waco 68 85 70 88 / 0 10 0 0
Paris 66 83 67 84 / 20 30 20 20
Denton 66 85 68 88 / 10 20 20 10
McKinney 67 85 69 88 / 10 20 20 10
Dallas 70 88 72 90 / 10 20 10 10
Terrell 67 86 68 88 / 10 20 20 10
Corsicana 70 88 71 90 / 10 20 10 10
Temple 69 87 71 89 / 0 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 65 86 67 88 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
