Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
917
FXUS64 KFWD 301817
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central
Texas through Friday. Heat index values between 105-109 can be
expected today and tomorrow.
- There is a low chance for showers/storms late Friday evening
into Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and
Central Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
The upper-level ridge will remain planted atop the Southern
Plains today. Continued subsident air, mostly sunny skies, and
southerly winds will allow temperatures to peak in the upper 90s
to around 102. We continue to mix out a bit more in the afternoons
compared to the NBM guidance, so have lowered dewpoints slightly
this afternoon. Nonetheless, modest humidity will push heat index
values into the upper 90s to around 109. The Heat Advisory
currently in effect for portions of North and Central Texas this
afternoon remains unchanged.
An upper-level shortwave is expected to move towards the Great
Lakes tomorrow, shunting the ridge back to the west over the day
tomorrow. This pattern shift will allow a cold front to slide
south over the day, approaching the Red River tomorrow evening.
Out ahead of the incoming front, surface winds are expected to
shift a bit more out of the southwest, which will promote
increased afternoon temperatures. Expect highs on Friday to peak
in the upper 90s to around 104, with the hottest temperatures
generally across North Texas. Heat indices will again peak in the
upper 90s to around 109, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for
much of North Texas and eastern Central Texas for heat indices
above 105.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
The front will continue to advance south Friday evening into
Saturday, shifting winds out of the north-northeast. Abundant
moisture looks to pool just along/ahead of the frontal boundary
late Friday, allowing for some isolated shower and storm
development near the Red River going into early Saturday morning.
Additional development looks to occur after the front pushes south
of the I-20 corridor during the day Saturday, with isolated-
scattered coverage likely. With any storm during the afternoon
hours, there may be a threat for gusty downburst winds and brief,
heavy rain. Caution should be taken if on or around area lakes as
lightning and gusty winds in/around storms will be hazardous to
those outdoors. The front will push south of the region late
Saturday, effectively cutting off any additional rain chances.
Expect slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend in the wake
of the cold front, with afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday
peaking in the low to upper 90s. Looking further into next week,
expect the upper-level ridge to gradually shift back over top the
Southern Plains throughout next week along with a return of
southerly winds, promoting a warming trend back to highs in the
upper 90s to around 101-102 early next week. Heat indices will
likely return into the triple digits for much of the region
Tuesday onward, and additional Heat Advisories may be needed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Expect southerly winds around 9-13 kt and VFR to prevail the next
24- 30 hours at all TAF sites. Cloud cover will consist of
occasional mid-upper level clouds and diurnal cumulus. No aviation
concerns are anticipated.
Towards the end of the period, a cold front will approach the Red
River late tomorrow night. This front will be accompanied by a
N-NE wind shift and a chance for isolated showers and storms. At
this time, it looks like the D10 terminals will remain dry, but
this wind shift will be included in future issuances.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 81 103 81 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 20
Paris 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 10
Denton 101 79 103 78 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 99 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 101 82 104 82 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 20
Corsicana 99 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 30
Temple 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 101 75 104 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-146>148-162.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ144-145-157>161-
174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
