Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
235
FXUS64 KFWD 290741
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
241 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with highs mainly
in the mid and upper 90s and peak heat index values near 100 to
105 degrees.
- Breezy south winds will continue today with frequent gusts near
30 mph.
- Rain chances may return Sunday into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Another hot, humid, and breezy day is expected across North and
Central Texas, though recent temperature trends continue to
support staying a few degrees cooler than the blended guidance.
Highs should generally peak in the mid to upper 90s, with
persistent southerly flow maintaining enough moisture for heat
index values near 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon. This will
still be uncomfortable heat, but slightly lower afternoon
dewpoints should keep most locations below Heat Advisory criteria.
Any morning stratus will scatter by midday with quiet weather
expected through tonight. South winds will remain breezy through
the afternoon, before easing somewhat after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
The overall pattern will remain slow to change through much of
the week with upper ridging displaced just east of the Southern
Plains and western CONUS troughing lingering upstream. Persistent
south flow will keep warm and humid conditions in place, but
recent observed trends and MOS guidance support holding temperatures
below the triple digits for most, if not all, of the forecast
area. Afternoon highs will generally remain in the mid to upper
90s with peak heat index values near 100 to 105 degrees. Heat
stress will remain a concern for those outdoors for extended
periods, but current trends continue to keep most locations below
advisory criteria.
Rain chances should remain very low through the first part of the
holiday weekend as the better forcing associated with embedded
shortwaves remains displaced well north of the region. While a few
models begin to show low rain chances returning late next weekend
into the following Monday, confidence remains low this far out.
For now, the most likely outcome keeps Friday and Saturday rain-
free across North and Central Texas, with only low-end storm
chances returning late Sunday or Monday if deeper moisture and a
more favorable disturbance can overlap.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
Breezy south winds and occasional MVFR cigs remain the only
aviation concerns through the period. A deck of low clouds
continues to spread northeast from Central Texas towards D10,
with scattered 2500-3000 ft AGL clouds already noted near several
Metroplex terminals. Intermittent MVFR cigs remain possible at all
TAF sites through roughly 10-11Z, with Central Texas terminals
most favored for prevailing or more frequent low cloud cover.
These cigs should scatter by late morning with VFR expected for
the remainder of the period. South winds will persist at 15-20 kt
with gusts 25-30 kt through the afternoon and early evening. Gusts
should become less frequent by mid to late evening, but sustained
speeds near 15 kt will likely continue overnight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 96 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 94 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 98 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 97 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 98 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 96 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 96 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 96 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 98 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
