Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
614
FXUS64 KFWD 241755
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another storm complex may impact areas near the Red River late
this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated
strong to severe winds are the main concerns.
- Dry weather with seasonably hot and humid conditions will
continue the rest of the workweek and weekend into early next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Thanks to continued northwesterly flow aloft, a complex of
showers and storms is currently pushing through Oklahoma into
Arkansas. While the majority of this activity should remain to our
north, weakening showers are trailing a bit further south into
North Texas. These showers are fairly high-based and will likely
not reach the ground. The bigger concern for today will be the
potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms clipping
our northeastern counties, where at least 8-10 inches of rain has
fallen over the last 72 hours. This activity may end up staying to
our north, but if storms are able to get going: ample instability
and PWATs upwards of 1.7", would allow storms to be capable of
strong to severe wind gusts and heavy rain that would exacerbate
already flooded spots. Reasonably, our northeastern counties could
expect another 0.50-1.00" of rainfall, with isolated higher
amounts where storms are able to train. Any rainfall would also
help to quell the afternoon heat by a few degrees. Elsewhere, it
will be a warm, muggy day with highs in the upper 80s in our
northeast to the mid- upper 90s near and west of I-35. Afternoon
heat indices will be a bit warmer than ambient temperatures,
ranging between the mid 90s to around 103.
While another complex may move through Oklahoma overnight into
Thursday as a shortwave transits across the top of the ridge just
to our west, this activity will likely skirt north of the Red
River. Over the day tomorrow, the upper level ridge will begin to
spread eastward across the Southern Plains, effectively staunching
additional rain chances through the end of the week into the
weekend. Afternoon highs tomorrow will peak in the 90s region-
wide, though slightly lower humidity will keep afternoon heat
indices in the mid 90s to around 101.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Hot, humid, and dry conditions are anticipated towards the end of
this week through early next week as the upper-level ridge
remains planted overtop the Southern Plains. The focus of the
forecast will turn to increasing afternoon temperatures, where
temperatures in the mid 90s to just above 100 degrees are likely
this weekend onward. with dewpoints remaining in the 60s and 70s
each day, high humidity will result in afternoon heat indices
ranging from the mid-upper 90s to around 106. However, a tightened
surface pressure gradient will result in increased wind speeds
Friday into Monday. Wind speeds between 15-25 mph and gusts up to
30-35 mph are likely for most each day, though isolated gusts up
to 40 mph are not out of the question. These higher wind speeds
may aid in making things feel a tad cooler over the weekend. We`ll
forego issuing a Heat Advisory this early on, though one may be
needed this weekend in portions of North and Central Texas.
Nonetheless, make sure to stay cool and hydrated this weekend,
particularly if participating in any outdoor activities.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
South to southwesterly winds will prevail at all TAF sites
through the next 24-30 hour period. A complex of storms will
continue moving from Oklahoma into Arkansas (well north of D10),
but may impact the Bonham cornerpost this afternoon into the
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow
morning. There is a low potential for MVFR cigs to approach ACT
early tomorrow, but cigs will likely remain south. With
probabilities below 30%, have opted to keep ACT VFR for the
period. Wind speeds and gusts will increase with the onset of
diurnal heating, with gusts around 25 mph possible after 16Z
tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 95 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 74 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 74 91 75 91 / 20 10 0 0
Denton 77 94 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 77 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 74 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 72 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
