Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
291
FXUS64 KFWD 010035
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
735 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a low chance for showers/storms late this evening
through Saturday as a weak cold front moves through the region.
Rain chances are 20% or less.
- Hot but considerably drier conditions are expected over the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is currently located
over parts of northwest Texas and Oklahoma along a southward
moving cold front, aided by weak ascent from a shortwave moving
into the Mid South. While it is not affecting our immediate area
at this time, the front will begin to move into our northern
counties later tonight. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
diminish with loss of daytime heating leaving PoPs in our area at
or below 20% through the late evening. As the front moves south on
Saturday and with the help of daytime heating, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are again expected to develop along the boundary
during the afternoon. By that time, the cold front will have
moved into Central TX and this will be where the highest PoPs
occur. Any storms that develop will have the potential for gusty
winds and lightning.
Unfortunately, this cold front will not bring much relief with the
maximum temperatures still expected to be in the high 90s but
considerably drier air will spill southward resulting in heat
index values closer to actual air temperatures. As a result, we`ll
allow the current Heat Advisory to expire this evening with no
extension planned at this time. However, we will be monitoring
our southeastern counties, as some higher dewpoints may linger
into the afternoon.
Borst
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
With continued northerly winds, expect slightly cooler
temperatures in the 90s once again on Sunday. However, this
respite to the heat will not last long as the upper-level ridge
will begin to build eastward over next week. Additionally,
southerly winds will return Monday onward, so a warming pattern
with little in the way of rain is expected across much of next
week. Afternoon highs will perk back up into the mid 90s to around
101-102 each day next week, with increasing humidity pushing heat
indices into the triple digits across much of North and Central
Texas. Unfortunately, we will likely have to deal with Heat
Advisories starting back up next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026
A cold front is currently located across southern Oklahoma with
scattered thunderstorms ongoing. This front will move southward
into the D10 airspace overnight resulting in northerly flow
between 10z and 11z for the major airports. For ACT, we expect
this wind shift to occur around 17z to 18z Saturday. North flow
10-15 kt will prevail behind the front.
Thunderstorms should diminish north of the airports late this
evening so we`ll leave TS out of the current TAFs at this time,
but will continue to monitor. Showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to develop along the front Saturday afternoon mainly
south of ACT, so we`ll leave TS out of the ACT TAF as well.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail behind the front.
Dunn/Borst
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 79 101 74 98 / 10 20 0 0
Paris 75 95 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 77 98 72 98 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 77 98 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 81 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 77 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 78 99 73 98 / 0 10 0 0
Temple 77 99 74 99 / 10 20 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 99 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
116>123-131>135-144>148-159>162-175.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
