Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
062
FXUS64 KFWD 120615
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
115 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Texas
this afternoon. Heat indices of up to 107 can be expected.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35
this afternoon.
- Above-average temperatures will continue into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
In the wake of the pair of shortwave troughs that transited the
region Thursday and Friday, subtropical ridging is once again
expected to build in this weekend. While associated subsidence
will act to hinder precipitation chances throughout the period,
10% PoPs have been introduced east of I-35 for this afternoon as
subtle ascent downstream of an embedded shortwave progresses
southeast across the ArkLaTex. Elsewhere, a few of the 00z CAMs
are hinting at isolated thundershowers developing in Central
Texas, likely suggestive of sporadic convective temperature
breaching. Confidence is too low to include in the official
forecast at this time.
Temperatures will climb in accordance with the increasing heights
aloft, ranging from the upper 90s across the Brazos Valley/extreme
Northeast Texas to the lower 100s elsewhere. A Heat Advisory has
been issued for most of North and Central Texas for the day on
Saturday to account for heat indices of up to 107. Local ambient
air temperatures will be maximized generally west of I-35 and
north of I-20, however southwesterly downslope flow in response
to lee cyclogenesis across the panhandle will act to reduce
surface dewpoint values with westward extent. Temperatures look to
be a few degrees cooler for Sunday and Monday, with partly cloudy
skies and light southerly winds prevailing.
Dornsife
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Persistent mid level ridging is expected to continue through the
latter half of the week resulting in continued above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation chances. The pattern
over the Central and Northern Plains will become increasingly active
through Friday. As it does, one or more cold fronts will sag south
through the Plains gradually resulting in increasing showers and
storms mainly to our north. While temperatures are likely to remain
in the upper 90s through much of the week, there is still some
indication that the ridging will begin to break down headed into
next weekend. This should eventually bring temperatures back down
closer to seasonal norms with an uptick in rain chances.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
VFR conditions with southerly flow around 10 kts and a few diurnal
cumulus of bases 6-8 kft are expected for the day on Saturday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible generally east
of I-35 during the afternoon. While direct impacts to any TAF
sites appears unlikely at this time, convective outflow and any
associated temporary wind shifts will be monitored should storms
develop.
Dornsife
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 98 75 99 75 / 20 0 0 0
Denton 102 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 81 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 100 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 100 77 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
