Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
982
FXUS64 KFWD 200621
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
121 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Following a lull in rain chances during the daytime, additional
thunderstorms will spread into the area Wednesday night into
Thursday.
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue
through the weekend and into early next week. Locally heavy rain
is possible, with a low potential for strong or severe
thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Trailing stratiform precipitation lingers across portions of
Central Texas early this morning following the departure of
convective complexes along a cold front. This light rain and
occasional thunder will continue to taper off heading towards
sunrise, with a stabilized and worked-over airmass in its wake.
Without any well-defined MCV features present, there will be
minimal forcing for any new convective development within the CWA
through the morning aside from weak warm advection at the 850mb
level. With trailing subsidence in the mid-levels seemingly in
place between shortwave disturbances, it appears likely that most
of the daytime will be dry today while we await additional
thunderstorms arriving from the west later this evening. With
mostly cloudy skies along with post-frontal ENE winds, highs will
struggle to make it out of the 70s.
By late afternoon, the radar should become active across West
Texas in response to another pronounced shortwave pivoting
through parent large-scale mid-level troughing. This should send
one or more convective clusters towards the CWA late this evening
or overnight. A lack of deep-layer shear will result in storms
that struggle to organize despite moderate instability, and so the
overall potential for any organized severe weather is quite low.
However, an isolated storm could become strong or marginally
severe heading into Thursday as this slow-moving activity
continues to progress eastward across the CWA. This will be
especially true for any convection that may still exist on
Thursday afternoon when destabilization will be further aided by
daytime heating. However, the most prominent threat will likely be
flooding, as slow storm motions and efficient rainfall processes
support locally heavy rain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Although modest height rises may overspread the area heading into
Friday, the recovery of stronger southerly flow and a higher
theta-e airmass will still support scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity, most of which will likely be diurnally
driven. This airmass recovery will also mean a return to warmer
and more humid conditions, with highs in the mid 80s and heat
index values around 90 on Friday afternoon. By Saturday, a diffuse
upper-level low will drift into the Southern Plains where it will
linger for a few days while the synoptic pattern remains fairly
stagnant. This regime will allow for daily thunderstorm chances
to continue over the weekend and into early next week. While
activity would likely reach a maximum during peak heating each
day, the weakness aloft and occasional subtle shortwaves rounding
the low could support showers and thunderstorms outside of
traditional diurnal time periods. The presence of this low will
also mean very weak shear through the column, and most convection
would likely resemble activity more characteristic of summertime
thunderstorms. Strong instability but weak shear should lead to
mainly ordinary cell or multicellular storm modes with a reduced
potential for organized severe weather. Slow storm motions will
continue to support a flooding threat through, especially after
multiple consecutive days of rainfall for some locations.
Increased cloud cover will continue to provide below normal
temperatures through the extended forecast period with highs
mostly in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
MVFR/IFR cigs are expanding across D10 with this expected to
persist through daybreak, before IFR slowly improves to low end
MVFR. A reduction in visibilities is also likely to around 3-4SM.
Ceilings should improve to above 2kft early afternoon with a
gradual clearing and return to VFR around 21Z.
Lingering rain and remains across the KACT region with a few
lightning strikes in the vicinity. This will diminish over the next
couple of hours with low end VFR ceilings persisting, before the
onset of MVFR around 12Z. There`s a ~30% chance of IFR between 12-
15Z, but no mention has been included. Will be monitoring for
adjustments as needed with trends over the next few hours. MVFR will
also continue well into the afternoon before clearing for KACT, with
winds shifting more easterly through the period at all sites.
Beyond 06Z, chances for showers and storms will return to all of
North and Central TX as well as additional ceilings, but this
will be assessed in future TAF issuances.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 66 81 67 / 90 30 30 60
Waco 88 70 80 67 / 90 100 30 60
Paris 79 63 80 65 / 90 40 30 50
Denton 83 64 79 65 / 90 30 30 60
McKinney 81 65 80 66 / 90 30 30 60
Dallas 88 66 82 67 / 90 30 30 60
Terrell 84 66 81 66 / 90 40 30 60
Corsicana 84 68 83 69 / 90 60 30 60
Temple 90 69 81 68 / 80 70 40 60
Mineral Wells 82 63 78 63 / 90 50 30 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Gordon
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
