Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
358
FXUS64 KFWD 141830
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
130 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered storms may impact our far western counties late this
afternoon and evening with a threat for severe hail and wind.
- An active pattern with chances for showers and storms will
persist this week. There is potential for strong to severe
storms again on Wednesday.
- A strong cold front on Saturday is expected to bring much cooler
temperatures and drier weather to end the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
While there is a threat of strong to severe storms today and
tomorrow, the threat in our forecast area will be isolated and
largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW.
Our entire forecast area is in an expansive open warm sector with
a dryline over West Texas. Ahead of the dryline, an open gulf is
promoting dense stratus that has pooled underneath a hearty cap
that was based around 880 mb on this morning`s sounding. Modest
lift from heating will deepen the boundary layer this afternoon
(latest aircraft sounding now has the cap around 860 mb), but the
absence of a more robust source of lift will limit deep convection
to areas near the dryline later today and this evening. The
dryline is forecast advance as far east as about Fredrick to
Snyder even down to the Big Bend region of Texas this afternoon by
the time thunderstorms initiate. Above the cap, quite steep lapse
rates and sufficient shear exist for supercells to develop
quickly, well to the west of our forecast area. The storms should
advance east-northeast off the boundary, likely growing upscale
into a few clusters or bowing segments overnight. These are the
storms that should move into the western parts of our forecast
area this evening, not the robust initial supercells that are
driving SPC`s Enhanced risk to our northwest.
The storms that move into our area this evening will be driven by
their own cold pools and moving into an increasingly stable
environment, particularly after about 10 pm local. So while a
few storms/clusters will be able to break the cap with the help of
their own cold pool, expect storms to decay as they advance east
toward the I-35 corridor. While not explicitly mentioned above, we
will also have to watch storms currently near the Big Bend area
that could move into Western Central Texas late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. The same caveats about moving into an
increasingly stable environment also apply to these storms.
Another warm and humid night, under dense gulf stratus, is
forecast tonight as the dryline retreats west. There is a chance
of scattered elevated showers, perhaps a few thunderstorms, across
North Texas tomorrow morning. The lift causing these storms should
be diffuse and broad, so pinpointing the exact location of this
activity is difficult, even at this time range. Given how steep
the lapse rates aloft are, we can`t rule out a few instances of
large hail if robust updrafts are able to organize.
There should be a lull in activity in the late morning into early
afternoon before thunderstorm activity ramps back up later in the
day. The dryline is forecast to nudge a little further east
tomorrow, stalling near Wichita Falls to Abilene with a triple
point in SW Oklahoma. We expect another round of storms to develop
near/east of the dryline (especially near the triple point) that
move east-northeast through the evening, weakening overnight. A
majority of the CAMs initiate simulated reflectivity returns, that
appear to be thunderstorms, in the open warm sector tomorrow
afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor, but forecast
soundings don`t really support deep/surface-based convection. It
appears that most of the simulated reflectivity blobs are showers
initiated within the boundary layer, while the deepest/strongest
convection remains to our west/northwest near the dryline. We`ll
be watching to see if the low-level stratus thins out and
promotes stronger surface heating, which would help a few more
updrafts break the cap ahead of the dryline. The chance of this is
around 10-20% if I had to put a number on it. All of this to say,
while there is another threat of strong to severe storms again
tomorrow, the severe threat in our area should be isolated and
largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Subtle ridging aloft is forecast to move over the state on
Thursday, choking thunderstorm chances as we head into Thursday.
Even though the surface pattern remains unchanged (staying in the
warm sector with a dryline to our west), we do not have any precip
mentioned in the forecast Thursday. As a result, it should be a
warm to hot day with high temps in the upper 80s and heat index
values in the low 90s. Similar weather is forecast Friday, but a
little cooler high temperatures as the wind field backs out out of
the south-southeast.
A cold front is forecast to slide down the plains Friday night,
moving through North and Central Texas Saturday. This will be a
rather strong cold front for this time of the year, lowering highs
from the upper 80s on Thursday to the low 70s/upper 60s Saturday
and Sunday. After about a week of sustained southerly flow, the
front will be able to squeeze some rain out of the atmosphere.
Most of the activity will develop near the front and last for only
a couple hours before moving south. Average rain amounts Saturday
are generally less than 0.25" due to the quick-moving and light
nature of the precip. A reinforcing high pressure system will move
into the region Sunday night and Monday, keeping below-normal
temperatures in place early next week. Southerly flow returns by
Tuesday, bringing temperatures to near the seasonal norms by the
middle parts of next week. We`ll have to watch for quick-moving
systems moving across the region that develop precip, but those
details will come into focus a little later.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026
A blanket of high MVFR/low VFR ceilings overspreads all TAF sites
at this time. Expect the ceilings to slowly lift over the course
of the afternoon, becoming VFR at all terminals in the hour or two
near sunset. Scattered storms are forecast to develop well west
of the D10 terminals that may impact Bowie arrivals and
potentially Glen Rose arrivals this evening, but we expect the
storms to dissipate before reaching D10.
Another round of low MVFR stratus is expected tonight/tomorrow
morning. Although we did not include it in the TAF, there is a
~30% chance of high IFR ceilings between ~12-16Z.
We did not include any precip in the TAFs for tomorrow. The large
scale sources of lift are too displaced from the TAF sites and we
simply do not have enough confidence of direct terminal impacts
at this time. Future TAFs will monitor the trends and add precip
as warranted.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 69 81 67 / 20 40 50 40
Waco 82 68 79 67 / 10 10 40 30
Paris 81 67 79 65 / 20 30 50 70
Denton 81 67 80 65 / 20 50 60 30
McKinney 81 68 80 66 / 20 40 50 50
Dallas 84 69 81 67 / 20 30 50 40
Terrell 82 68 81 66 / 20 10 50 50
Corsicana 84 69 84 68 / 20 10 40 40
Temple 83 68 83 67 / 10 10 30 30
Mineral Wells 82 66 81 64 / 20 50 60 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Bonnette
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
