Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
478
FXUS64 KFWD 161918
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily rain and storm chances (30-60%) return to the region on
Monday and continue through the end of the week. Strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through
Monday, followed by cooler air mid to late week behind a cold
front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Another warm and breezy afternoon is underway across North and
Central Texas as lee-side troughing persists across the High
Plains and maintains a fairly tight pressure gradient across Texas
and the Southern Plains. The larger-scale pattern is preparing to
turn more active as an upper trough digs toward the Rockies, but
meaningful height falls and stronger ascent will remain well
northwest of the forecast area through tonight. Locally, the 12Z
FWD sounding sampled a stout capping inversion, which should keep
the area dry despite continued moisture return and daytime
heating. South winds will occasionally gust to around 25 to 30 mph
this afternoon. There may be a dryline storm or two to watch well
to our west late this afternoon or evening, but weak synoptic
ascent, the warm elevated mixed layer, and weaker instability with
eastward extent should cause any activity to weaken before
reaching our western counties.
Low clouds will expand northward late tonight into Sunday morning
as low-level moisture continues to deepen. These clouds may be a
little stubborn to scatter, and daytime temperatures Sunday have
been nudged a bit below deterministic NBM guidance as a result.
This also matters for the convective forecast. Lingering cloud
cover would temper destabilization, keep inhibition stronger, and
further limit storm coverage across North and Central Texas. If
clouds scatter more aggressively, the dryline and any remnant
boundaries would have a better chance to support isolated
convection by late afternoon or early evening. A lead shortwave
will eject northeast from Northwest Texas into the Southern Plains
Sunday evening, but the strongest ascent should remain north of
the forecast area. The best storm chances will be along and north
of the Red River, with Central Texas more conditional. Coverage
should remain isolated, but any storm that develops or moves into
North Texas could become severe and capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Any isolated storms across North Texas Sunday evening should
weaken and move east after sunset as the lead shortwave lifts
northeast and instability wanes. A few elevated showers or storms
may linger across parts of Central Texas Sunday night where warm
advection increases, but coverage should remain limited. Low
clouds are expected to return Sunday night into Monday morning,
and (similar to Sunday) daytime temperatures for Monday have been
nudged slightly below the NBM where lingering cloud cover may slow
heating. The cloud cover will also matter for Monday`s convective
forecast, since slower erosion would limit destabilization and
keep inhibition stronger into the afternoon.
A stronger shortwave will lift into the Central Plains on Monday,
sending broader height falls and stronger ascent into the Plains
while still keeping the best forcing north of North and Central
Texas. Even so, dryline convergence and weakening inhibition
should make storm development more plausible than Sunday,
especially across western and northern portions of the region
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage remains uncertain with
southern extent, but any sustained storm could become severe in an
environment supportive of organized convection. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the main hazards, with a lower but non-
zero tornado threat where storms can interact with any remnant
boundaries or locally backed surface winds. Storm mode is not
especially clean-cut at this range. With the strongest upper-level
support displaced north, storms that develop locally may have a
tendency to become messy with time, including mergers or outflow-
influenced clusters rather than remaining well-separated discrete
storms.
The main trough axis will progress eastward through the Plains
Tuesday into Tuesday night, sending a cold front south/southeast
into North and Central Texas. The front should provide the most
coherent forcing of the period, with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of it. Exact frontal
timing remains a meaningful uncertainty this far out, and recent
guidance will likely continue to shift some from run to run. A
slower frontal progression would increase storm chances Tuesday,
allow more of the warm sector to remain in place longer, increase
the potential for multiple rounds in some areas, and keep the
severe threat active farther into Tuesday evening or Tuesday
night. Shear should remain supportive of organized convection
along and ahead of the front, though storm mode should become more
linear or clustered as forcing consolidates along the boundary.
Damaging winds may become the more prominent hazard, but hail will
remain possible with stronger embedded updrafts. The increasing
moisture depth will also support higher rainfall efficiency, so
locally heavy rain will be possible where storms train along the
front or interact with remnant outflow boundaries.
By Wednesday, vertical motion becomes increasingly tied to post-
frontal overrunning and additional perturbations embedded within
the subtropical jet. Elevated showers and storms may continue,
especially across Central Texas, as the positively tilted upper
trough lingers with its southern flank extending back toward
Northwest Texas. Severe potential should be lower than Tuesday,
and any stronger storms would likely to produce hail if enough
elevated instability remains. The forecast becomes more nebulous
Thursday into Friday. The front may settle near the Gulf Coast
Thursday, keeping the better rain chances south of the forecast
area, but another subtropical shortwave could bring renewed ascent
as the boundary begins to retreat north Friday. This is why the
gridded forecast may show PoPs each period through much of the
week, but it should not be interpreted as nonstop rain. Instead,
the late-week pattern favors periodic rounds of showers and
storms, with coverage depending on the position of the front,
timing of passing disturbances, and how quickly richer moisture
returns northward. Confidence in the day-to-day details is lower
late week, but the broader unsettled pattern should continue into
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Breezy south winds will continue through the afternoon with
sustained speeds around 15 to 20 KT and occasional gusts near 25
to 30 KT. VFR will prevail through this evening. A more
substantial surge of low clouds will arrive early Sunday morning,
bringing MVFR ceilings to KACT around 07Z and the Metroplex
terminals around 08Z. These ceilings will likely linger through
Sunday morning before gradually lifting toward low VFR by early
afternoon.
The combination of the lingering cloud deck and a stout cap should
limit destabilization through the day Sunday. While isolated
convection may develop near or west of the region late Sunday, the
probability of direct impacts to any TAF site remains too low for
a mention this cycle. South winds will remain elevated overnight
and become gusty again Sunday afternoon as boundary layer mixing
improves.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 89 75 89 / 0 20 10 20
Waco 73 87 75 89 / 0 10 20 20
Paris 71 86 73 87 / 0 20 40 40
Denton 73 87 75 88 / 0 20 10 20
McKinney 72 88 74 88 / 10 10 10 30
Dallas 73 89 76 90 / 10 20 10 20
Terrell 71 88 74 88 / 10 10 20 20
Corsicana 74 89 77 89 / 10 10 20 20
Temple 74 88 77 91 / 10 10 20 20
Mineral Wells 70 87 73 87 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
