Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
735
FXUS64 KFWD 051140
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A relative lull in rainfall coverage is expected today with
isolated, sporadic showers (20-30% chance) and a few rumbles of
thunder remaining possible during the daytime.
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a couple of tornadoes will
be possible across parts of North and Central Texas Friday
afternoon and evening.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will continue to bring a threat
for severe weather and flash flooding this weekend and into next
week, especially Saturday and Tuesday-Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
Thunderstorms have diminished in intensity and have pushed toward
the Red River at this hour as southerly flow re-establishes across
North Texas and the cold front that settled near the I-35 corridor
earlier today retracts northward back into Oklahoma. The moist
airmass will remain overhead through Thursday with widespread low
clouds filling in later tonight across much of the region. Expect
overnight lows to remain in the low to mid 60s across much of
North and Central Texas tonight.
Isolated to widely scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder will
be possible during the daytime Thursday. It will be difficult to
pinpoint exactly where these showers may develop as they will be
tied largely to warm-moist advection in the lower levels of the
atmosphere, however the greatest rain chances (20-30%) will reside
generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. Low clouds will
hang around into at least the early afternoon hours with high
temperatures nudging into the mid 70s to low 80s. Most of the
region will remain dry through Thursday night with overnight lows
Thursday night falling into the low to mid 60s once again.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
By early Friday, an upper trough will slide southeast toward the
Four Corners region with a leading shortwave ejecting out into the
Central Plains. A surface low will likely develop near Central
Kansas by midday Friday with a cold front extending out into
southeastern Colorado. A dryline will rapidly mix east toward the
Highway 281 corridor near our Big Country counties by mid-
afternoon Friday with an expansive warm sector noted by low to mid
60s dewpoints stretching from Central Texas into eastern Kansas.
The better synoptic-scale lift and support will remain north of
our forecast area, thus circulations along the dryline and warm-
advection out in the warm sector will need to do some heavy
lifting to initiate convection once the atmosphere become uncapped
by 1-2PM Friday afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance is not
very excited with the degree of thunderstorm development late
Friday. Therefore, we expect thunderstorm coverage in our
forecast area to remain more isolated to scattered. Nonetheless,
any storm that does develop will feed off an environment favorable
for severe storms. 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear will support organized, supercell
thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts. A slightly higher tornado threat may materialize Friday
evening north of I-20 closer to the Red River as the low-level jet
ramps up and leads to large, low-level curvature in the forecasted
hodographs and 150-200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. However, a storm needs to
be present in this environment to do something interesting, and
the overall coverage in North Texas is still a bit uncertain.
More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected as we head into
Saturday and this system`s cold front pushes into North and
Central Texas, interacting with an anomalously moist airmass.
PWATs will be pushing 1.4-1.6" along and south of I-20 during the
day Friday which will allow for very efficient rainfall rates and
heightened flash flooding concerns, especially beneath training
thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected
across parts of Central and East Texas with localized 3-4+"
possible along and south of I-20 through early Sunday.
Rainfall coverage may decrease the latter half of Sunday into
Monday as mid-level height rises build over North and Central
Texas and the aforementioned cold front washes out and lifts back
northward. However, by Tuesday-Wednesday of next week, long-range
guidance highlights a deep trough building over West Texas which
would bring the potential for widespread rainfall and severe
weather back to our forecast area by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026
MVFR cigs are currently overspreading much of North and Central
Texas this morning and will fill in over the Metroplex within the
next hour. Low stratus will likely hang around through at least
midday, lifting to VFR status after 19Z-20Z. Most locations will
remain dry today but there remains a low 20-30% chance that an
isolated shower or two with a stray lightning strike moves within
the vicinity of the TAF sites. High-resolution guidance has been
more confident in this occurring over Central Texas early this
afternoon, thus a VCSH mention has been added to the KACT TAF
after 18Z. Otherwise, expect south winds at 10-15 kts gusting to
25 kts at times through much of this TAF period. MVFR cigs will
return once again late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected today. Activation may be
requested again late Friday into Saturday. Stay up-to-date with
the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 66 79 60 / 40 20 60 60
Waco 81 65 82 64 / 30 20 50 50
Paris 78 63 79 61 / 40 10 60 80
Denton 77 62 78 54 / 40 20 60 50
McKinney 78 65 79 59 / 40 20 60 60
Dallas 80 66 80 60 / 40 20 60 60
Terrell 80 65 81 61 / 30 20 50 70
Corsicana 84 68 83 67 / 20 10 50 60
Temple 82 65 82 64 / 20 20 30 50
Mineral Wells 80 63 82 54 / 30 20 60 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
