Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
649
FXUS64 KFWD 260053
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
753 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures will continue through tomorrow and a Heat
Advisory is in effect for all of North and Central Texas
tonight and tomorrow.
- An elevated fire threat will continue through tomorrow across
Western North and Central Texas, with smoke from ongoing
wildfires causing reduced visibility in some areas.
- Low (10-30%) rain and storm chances return Wednesday, bringing
the potential for gusty winds.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Latest radar imagery shows a few showers continue across the area,
although much of this is not likely reaching the ground per our
very dry 00Z sounding. Latest models and CAMs indicate some
additional showers and maybe a storm or two are possible tomorrow
near/after 12Z, so adjusted pops slightly to account for this
potential. Otherwise, added mention of smoke into the grids for
the Ross fire as dense near-surface smoke will continue to be an
issues across our western North Texas counties tonight into
tomorrow, with some patchy smoke aloft likely around the
Metroplex.
Shamburger
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
After a round of morning shower and thunderstorm activity, the
precip has largely come to an end with only a ragged sheet of
alto/strato-cumulus left in its wake. A few light rain showers or
sprinkles may still reach the surface over Central Texas this
afternoon, but the chance of measurable precip is 10% or less.
The main impact today will be hot, dry, and breezy weather across
North and Central Texas. A low pressure system is currently
analyzed to our northwest that will slowly slide east and settle
south of OKC this evening. A trailing cold front extends to the
southwest of this low, with a belt of hot, dry, and breezy air
ahead of the front that expands over Western North Texas. This
will promote a locally enhanced fire weather threat across all of
Western North and Central Texas, but especially for areas west
and north of the DFW Metroplex this afternoon and evening.
We are monitoring a weak shortwave trough/MCV moving across
southwest Oklahoma that is advancing toward our northwestern
counties. Most of this activity has been relatively shallow (cloud
bases around 10 kft and cloud tops around 20 kft), so this hasn`t
amounted to much more than a few sprinkles. We expect this trend
to continue through the afternoon and evening.
A (not as) cold front should move across the Red River tonight
into tomorrow morning then stall between DFW/Waco in the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, southerly flow will draw better
moisture north...although there will still be a narrow belt of
dry/breezy air over Western North Texas overnight that continues
to promote an elevated fire threat for some areas. The front will
bring "not as hot" (but still "hot") temperatures and slightly
higher humidity to the region. We have issued a Heat Advisory for
all of North and Central Texas tomorrow. For North Texas/north of
I-20, it will mainly be for heat index values climbing above 105.
For Central Texas/areas south of I-20, it will be for a combo of
temperatures between 103-105 and heat index values between
105-108.
For precip tomorrow...we`re monitoring a couple areas/times that
could impact the region. Any showers and storms tomorrow will have
to contend with a lot of dry air in the sub-cloud layer, so precip
amounts will be very light regardless. The first system will be
associated with a thunderstorm cluster that develops over West
Texas this evening and tonight. It will make a run at our west to
northwest counties near sunrise, but the latest guidance favors
this system becoming outflow dominant with very little precip by
the time is moves into our forecast area. However, the guidance
tends to "dry out" these systems too quick, so we have some 10-20%
PoPs in the forecast tomorrow morning to account for this. The
next focus area for precip tomorrow will be along/ahead of the
cold front where confluence along the boundary may be enough to
initiate a few showers/storms. The sub-cloud air will still be
pretty dry with cloud bases around 7-10 kft, so updrafts should
struggle to get organized into much more than scattered showers.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
The front is forecast to linger over North and Central Texas for
36-48 hours, helping produce scattered showers and storms
Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Most of the precip will
be triggered by transitory shortwaves moving overtop of the front
(usually in the early morning hours) and diurinally-driven popup
showers and storms near the front (usually in the afternoon and
evening hours). Coverage of all precip will be hit-or-miss with
very little rain actually reaching the surface, so although we
have the mention of showers and storms for a few days, I would not
get too encouraged that we will have widespread drought-busting or
even drought-improving rainfall. The front is forecast to wash out
and be replaced by southerly flow on the surface about the same
time that the mid-level high/ridge builds east over North and
Central Texas late this week. This will end rain chances in the
late-week periods with hot and dry weather forecast this weekend
and early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
VFR conditions are expected again this TAF period with mainly some
scattered mid level clouds and broken cirrus. Latest models shows
VCSH around D10 after 15Z and ACT after 20Z, with most likely
time for any impacts between 21-00Z. South winds up to 12 knots
tonight will veer to western then northwesterly with a fropa on
Wednesday morning, although speeds are expected to remain less
than 10 knots. Some smoke aloft will impact parts of D10 due to
the Ross fire about 60 miles west of FTW.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 102 80 99 / 10 20 30 20
Waco 80 104 79 100 / 0 20 20 30
Paris 79 100 74 96 / 10 20 30 10
Denton 82 101 75 99 / 10 20 20 20
McKinney 82 101 76 97 / 10 20 20 10
Dallas 85 104 80 100 / 10 20 30 20
Terrell 80 104 76 99 / 10 20 30 20
Corsicana 79 104 78 100 / 10 20 20 20
Temple 78 104 79 101 / 0 10 10 30
Mineral Wells 79 102 73 100 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094-
100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ095-106-107-122-
123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
