Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
730
FXUS64 KFWD 051913
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
213 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms will occur today through Sunday
with coverage peaking during the afternoon hours each day.
Frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy
rainfall can be expected with the strongest storms.
- Warmer and predominantly rain-free weather will return for most
of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
A warm and humid airmass continues across north Texas today.
Temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s with mostly cloudy
skies and a few showers around. This is mostly thanks to an upper-
level trough located over northwest Mexico keeping the region in
southwest flow aloft. Any breaks in the high-level cloud cover will
allow additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop.
PWAT values are between 1.8 to 2.2 inches so any storms that develop
could quickly produce locally heavy rainfall as they move northward.
The upper-level trough should lift out of Mexico and into west Texas
overnight. As this upper low approaches, lift will increase across
north Texas and allow for showers and thunderstorms to increase
during the night. The upper-level low should slowly move northward
into Oklahoma through the day and provide substantial lift across
north Texas. The dry slot looks to move into the Big Country
tomorrow and allow widespread clouds to clear out from the Metroplex
westward by late morning. The resultant heating in this area and
effect of being close to the upper low should lead to increased
chances for stronger storms to develop in the afternoon across the
Big Country and northwest of the Metroplex through the evening. In
addition to heavy rainfall, these storms will have the potential to
produce damaging downburst winds and large hail.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
The upper-level low will push northeastward to near Kansas City on
Sunday. The trough axis should move from west to east across
north Texas throughout the day. This should provide lift for
another round of thunderstorms mainly along and north of the I-20
corridor. Chances for severe weather look low at this time, but
storms could still produce locally heavy rainfall.
The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley on Monday. In it`s wake, models show that a
subtropical ridge will build in across Texas and persist through
at least Wednesday. Rain chances look to dry up during this time,
but much hotter conditions are anticipated. Models show 500 mb
heights of 590 dam over east Texas with 850 mb temperatures around
20 deg C each day. This would translate to medium (40 to 60%)
chances for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In
addition, the humidity levels will still be rather high for much
of next week with dewpoints in the low 70s. This would lead to
heat indices between 100-105 each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
On and off showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue near
all terminals in the Metroplex this afternoon before diminishing
later this evening. MVFR ceilings with occasional showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm should re-develop by 06Z. Some locations
could see IFR conditions especially in heavier showers. Ceilings
should start to improve after about 15Z tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 85 72 88 / 80 70 60 70
Waco 71 84 72 87 / 90 50 50 40
Paris 70 81 70 84 / 60 80 70 90
Denton 70 84 70 88 / 80 70 70 70
McKinney 71 83 71 86 / 70 80 60 80
Dallas 72 86 72 89 / 80 70 60 70
Terrell 71 84 71 86 / 70 70 60 70
Corsicana 72 86 73 88 / 80 70 50 60
Temple 71 85 72 88 / 90 50 50 30
Mineral Wells 68 85 69 89 / 80 60 70 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kearney
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Kearney
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
