Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

503
FXUS64 KFWD 120538
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1138 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High clouds will continue across the region Monday and Tuesday
  with a low chance for light rain/sprinkles in Central Texas.

- Seasonal temperatures will persist through the upcoming week
  with little chance for rainfall through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a slow moving upper low spinning over
Baja California with a steady stream of eastern Pacific moisture
continuing to spread high cloud cover across the state of Texas.
These clouds are intermittently thick across North Texas so we`ll
keep a fair amount of clouds in the forecast through Tuesday given
the slow eastward progression of the upper trough.

At the surface, high pressure has moved just east of our area and
winds are gradually becoming more southerly although several
locations are calm at this hour. Expect southerly winds to resume
on Monday as high temperatures climb a few degrees into the
low/mid 60s. As the upper trough out west moves in our general
direction, strong mid level height falls will overspread Texas
with a good amount of mid level forcing for ascent expected from
the Big Bend region into Central Texas. This will likely result in
some radar returns across the region, but a lack of more
appreciable low level moisture means that most of this will be
virga. We`ll have a low chance for sprinkles across our far south
and southwest counties this afternoon, but most areas will remain
rain free. A similar pattern is expected on Tuesday as the trough
finally ejects eastward into a broader trough over the eastern
CONUS.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

With a large eastern CONUS trough amplifying midweek, we`ll see
another cold front move through the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
As has been the case for much of the winter so far, a lack of
decent low level moisture will mean this front will come through
dry. Breezy north winds can be expected Wednesday afternoon along
with RH values dropping below 30%. Despite cooler temperatures,
there will be at least a low threat for fire starts in the dry
conditions mainly west of I-35 during this time. The upper pattern
will remain progressive through the end of the week and into next
weekend with another front moving through on Friday. Similar to
the previous one, little chance for rainfall is expected.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal norms through next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR will prevail with light and variable winds becoming southerly
10 kt or less. Thick high cloud cover will continue to stream
overhead through the period. No significant aviation concerns are
expected at this time.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  64  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                35  61  41  61 /   0   0   0  10
Paris               31  60  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              31  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            33  62  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              38  64  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             33  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           37  63  41  67 /   0   0   0  10
Temple              35  63  40  63 /   0  10   0  10
Mineral Wells       32  66  35  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion