Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
328
FXUS64 KFWD 200025
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
725 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms will re-develop overnight and Saturday morning,
mainly across Central Texas. Heavy rain will be the primary
threat.
- Isolated storms are possible Saturday afternoon near the I-20
corridor.
- Hot and humid weather will continue across North and Central
Texas through next week with occasional thunderstorm chances and
locally heavy rain mainly in North Texas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Convective evolution and the potential for additional thunderstorm
and flooding impacts is the main concern for the rest of the
afternoon and into the early part of the evening. Of interest is a
line of storms that currently extends from near Stephenville to
Temple and has been moving to the northeast at around 25 mph. On
this course, it will approach the Metroplex, which has already
seen considerable flooding earlier this morning. POPs and QPF
through the afternoon have been adjusted from the NBM
initialization to account for this feature. Additional showers and
thunderstorms continue near and north of the Red River within the
850 mb moisture axis. The heavier rains associated with this
activity have shifted to the north and east of the forecast area
and should remain there given the location of the more favorable
moisture transport. Finally, a separate batch of thunderstorms
have developed late this morning in the Brazos Valley along the
cold front. An overall east to southeastward shift in the
thunderstorm activity through the afternoon and into the evening
is expected, although given the position of the upper level
disturbance, may linger and even rejuvenate some across eastern
portions of the forecast area into Saturday morning. Some diurnal
development is also expected Saturday afternoon.
The widespread convective cloud cover is keeping temperatures down
today from earlier expectations. As a result, dangerous heat index
values are no longer expected across southern portions of the
forecast area, and the Heat Advisory has been cancelled. With less
cloud cover expected tomorrow, temperatures will be slightly
warmer in most areas and triple digit heat indices should result.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Upper level high pressure will extend eastward across the region
for the latter part of the weekend and into early next week.
Sunday and Monday will feature hot and humid conditions, with a
likely need for additional Heat Advisories in at least a part of
the area. The main storm track will shift farther north, with only
low chances for showers and thunderstorms on Monday across Texoma.
Toward the middle of next week, a cold front will sag southward
and likely push through at least northern parts of the forecast
area. This will push potential for showers and thunderstorms
farther south and lead to cooler temperatures in some spots.
Locally heavy rain will remain an issue given the continued high
PWATs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
A highly worked-over atmosphere from today`s showers and storms
has brought a reprieve in the convection, which should last
through the evening hours. Additional storms are expected to
develop overnight into Saturday morning, however, as the low level
jet brings Gulf moisture northward across the area. The
overnight/Sat morning storms will be confined mainly to Central
Texas where a lingering upper trough will reside, and have added
VCTS to the KACT TAF for 12-16Z. Outflow from the morning
convection may lead to isolated thunderstorms development farther
north Saturday afternoon, which may require a few hours of VCTS
for the DFW area TAFs, likely in the 19-23Z time frame as
advertised in the latest runs of the HRRR.
Outside of the thunderstorm concerns, MVFR ceilings will be common
overnight/Saturday morning starting 07Z at KACT and 09Z in the
Metroplex, with conditions improving to VFR 16-18Z. Otherwise,
light east to southeast winds tonight will veer to the south
Saturday morning as today`s weak surface front lifts to the north
and eventually washes out.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 721 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 91 77 96 / 50 20 10 0
Waco 75 90 76 95 / 50 40 10 0
Paris 72 87 74 91 / 50 40 20 10
Denton 73 90 76 95 / 50 20 10 0
McKinney 73 89 76 93 / 50 30 10 0
Dallas 75 92 77 95 / 50 30 10 0
Terrell 73 90 75 94 / 60 50 20 0
Corsicana 76 91 77 93 / 60 50 10 0
Temple 76 91 77 95 / 40 30 10 0
Mineral Wells 72 90 74 97 / 40 20 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hatfield
LONG TERM....Hatfield
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
