Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
365
FXUS64 KFWD 191119
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
519 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions may materialize across parts
of western North Texas during the day Thursday. Caution should
be taken to avoid any activities that may lead to new fire
starts!
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday for Young, Jack,
Montague and Cooke counties.
- Near-normal temperatures will briefly return to the region this
weekend behind a cold front.
- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
...Thursday...
A warm, dry and breezy day is expected across North and Central
Texas today with highs in the 70s and 80s. Due to afternoon RH in
the 15-30% range and west/northwest winds of 10-15 mph, fire
weather concerns will be elevated across the region.
Well to the north in the Central Plains, a surface low pressure is
expected to deepen and mature before running northeast into the
Upper Midwest. South of the surface low, a robust dry conveyer
belt is expected to push to the surface, mainly across Oklahoma.
Due to synoptic scale subsidence down to the surface in this dry
slot, boundary layer moisture is expected to quickly drop with RH
values likely ranging from 10-15%. The southern fringes of this
exceptionally dry airmass will nudge just south enough to bring
near- critical to critical fire danger for a localized area along
and north of US-380, and along and west of US-35. Surface winds in
this same area will be strong during the afternoon too owing to a
well mixed boundary layer with uni-directional flow through its
depth. As such, the combination of very low RH (10-15%),
sustained west winds of 15-20 mph and sufficiently dry fuels has
necessitated the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for Young, Jack,
Montague and Cooke counties.
...Thursday Night...
This evening into the overnight, a push of cooler air from the
north will allow temperatures to be some 10-20 degrees cooler than
they have been this week thus far. Overnight lows will range from
the upper 30s near the Red River to the 40s for much of North and
Central Texas. The Brazos Valley looks to be far enough south to
keep in the low 50s Thursday night into Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
...Friday through Monday...
Though still above average, temperatures on Friday will be much
closer to seasonal norms with most staying in the upper 60s and
lower 70s. For locations across Central and Eastern Texas,
moisture return in the wake of the Thursday night cold front over
the cooler post-frontal airmass will likely result in mostly
cloudy to cloudy skies during the day. While the exact coverage
and evolution of clouds on Friday remain somewhat uncertain,
should clouds be more sparse or shift further east, portions of
Central Texas may see highs closer to 80 degrees. This however is
a much less likely scenario (~30% chance). A weak disturbance may
also bring a stray light rain shower or two to portions of the
Brazos Valley. However, with warm temperatures aloft due to
southwesterly winds in the 850-700 hPa layer and the bulk of
synoptic forcing for ascent well displaced to the north/northeast,
rain chances Friday afternoon currently sit at 10% for this area.
Friday night, another cold front will approach the area from the
north with a surface low expected to traverse across North Texas.
Most likely frontal progression will put it in the Brazos Valley
by Saturday morning. Locations that can remain ahead of the front
will remain in the 60s overnight as boundary layer moisture
streams northward from the Gulf. Behind the front, expect lows in
the 40s and low 50s.
Near normal temperatures return to North Texas Saturday, and the
rest of Central Texas Saturday night through Monday night with
highs in the upper 50s and 60s, and lows in the 30s. Despite
several reinforcing surges of cooler air from the north, rain is
not expected due to meager tropospheric moisture (PWAT
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
