Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
347
FXUS64 KFWD 222334
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
634 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms will spread into portions of North Texas overnight
into early Saturday morning. A few strong or marginally severe
storms are possible with hail and wind threats.
- Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend into next
week with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.
The severe weather threat is low at this time. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the main threats.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Upstream convective activity in West Texas and the Panhandle
continues to increase in coverage as of 6pm, and this will be the
area to watch for the next several hours (in particular, the
convection near Lubbock) as it attempts to organize and push
towards North Texas overnight. As discussed in the Short Term
forecast below, weak flow through the column and lackluster shear
are rather unfavorable for a robust line of convection to be able
to organize and push east while maintaining intensity. However,
sufficient instability exists such that new updrafts should be
able to progressively develop along a leading edge outflow,
allowing such a convective complex to move/propagate eastward
while also containing strong or marginally severe hail/wind
hazards. The main time period of interest will be roughly midnight
to 5am, while remaining convection continues to weaken over time
and with eastward extent by daybreak Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Water vapor and satellite imagery show North Texas beneath weak
shortwave ridging this afternoon which has allowed weak subsidence
to dominate the region. Light and variable low level flow within
a moist environment has led to a fairly expansive cu field across
the region, but things should remain relatively quiet through the
late evening hours. Farther west, clear skies prevail across most
of West Texas, but isolated thunderstorms have developed over the
last hour along a dryline in far West Texas. Storm development is
expected to increase in coverage through the late afternoon and
evening hours as broad large scale forcing for ascent increases
ahead of a shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico. Modest
instability as a result of steep mid level lapse rates across
West Texas should encourage some storm organization through the
late evening hours, however generally weak low and mid level flow
will inhibit a more significant organized severe weather threat.
The level of storm organization through late evening will likely
have some impact on our weather during the late overnight hours.
As the upper disturbance spreads northeast, we should see a small
complex of thunderstorms spread east into North Texas after
midnight. It`s likely that this line of storms will lose some
intensity as it approaches the I-35 corridor around 3-4 am.
Nonetheless, it does appear likely that we`ll see a decent
coverage of storms during the overnight hours into early Saturday
morning.
That being said, this complex of storms will have impacts on the
forecast for Saturday. As it`s currently advertised, we should see
a lull in additional scattered storms during the first half of
Saturday, and we`ll keep PoPs
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
