Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
609
FXUS64 KFWD 211842
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
142 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record high temperatures are expected across parts of
North and Central Texas this afternoon and tomorrow.
- A grass fire threat will continue through next week given
above normal temperatures and very low relative humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Abnormally hot temperatures are ongoing across North and Central
Texas with temperatures maxing out in the upper 80s to 90s this
afternoon. The hottest conditions will remain west of I-35, where
the drier air currently resides. With a lobe of high pressure
extending eastward out of the Desert Southwest, relatively low
wind speeds are expected today.
By tomorrow morning, our morning low temperatures in the 60s will
quickly increase through the day, managing to climb to the 90s
and even some triple digits. The higher resolution model data
continues to suggest there will be a wide spread in temperatures
across the area with mid 80s in East Texas to around 100-101
around the Breckenridge to Graham area. This is largely due to a
similar sharp gradient in the humidity levels across the region.
The driest air mass will remain west of I-35, allowing for more
rapid warming compared to the slightly more humid air in East
Texas.
Breezy southwesterly winds are expected across much of the region
with a few gusts approaching 30 mph tomorrow afternoon. The
combination of the dry air mass, southwesterly winds and
compressional warming due to an incoming front will ensure we see
our warmest temperatures of the year so far!
To put this heat in perspective, normal high temperatures across
North and Central Texas in mid March are generally between 70-72
degrees. Our expected highs today and tomorrow are roughly 15-30
degrees above normal! Remember to continue hydrating and taking
frequent breaks if you plan on spending time outdoors through
tomorrow afternoon.
A cold front is expected to cross the Red River tomorrow
afternoon, moving southward through the evening. Latest model
guidance suggest the front will come to a screeching halt before
clearing all of our North and Central Texas counties. At this
time, the Brazos Valley counties may not see the front whatsoever
as it begins to retreat northward on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Areas behind the front will likely experience slightly cooler
temperatures on Monday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s in North
Texas. The Brazos Valley and East Texas counties will continue
experiencing warm conditions with highs climbing into the mid 80s.
If you`re wanting "cooler" weather, enjoy Monday because the heat
returns Tuesday onward thanks to the return of the mid-level
ridge. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be back in the 90s.
A gradual breakdown of the ridge continues to be advertised by the
end of next week, however, appreciable rain chances don`t look
likely until the first couple of days in April. Until then, we`ll
continue with above normal temperatures, dry conditions and an
increased potential for grass fire starts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
The rest of today will remain fairly tranquil with continued
southerly winds between 12-14 kts. Skies remain clear with
excellent flying conditions in place. Those same tranquil weather
conditions will remain in place through tonight, however, some
changes will begin to take shape tomorrow.
Gusty southwesterly winds will develop tomorrow afternoon ahead of
an incoming cold front. Gusts between 25-28 kts are expected with
overall wind direction out of the southwest. The cold front will
likely slow down significantly as it approaches the DFW Metroplex.
Although some areas in D10 may experience northerly winds, the
front is unlikely to reach the immediate TAF sites until after 00z
Monday. This frontal passage will remain dry with no low clouds or
precipitation expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 93 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 63 90 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 63 88 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 61 93 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 63 92 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 66 92 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 62 88 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 63 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 60 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 60 97 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
