Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
953
FXUS64 KFWD 121815
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
115 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a cool Thursday, a warm-up will take place Friday and
Saturday.
- A strong cold front will arrive on Sunday, bringing gusty north
winds across the region and unseasonably cold weather to start
next week. Fire weather concerns may also increase on Sunday
due to low humidity and gusty winds.
- A quick warm-up will take place by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
After a fairly cool start of the day, pleasant and quiet
conditions will prevail the rest of the day. Clear skies and
light winds will continue as surface high pressure remains in
control. This afternoon`s highs will stay in the 60s with
southerly winds returning later today. Tonight`s temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer than this morning with lows in the 40s.
South flow will become established tomorrow as the surface high
moves to our east. It will also become breezy by late morning
given an increase in the pressure gradient with a weak low to our
northwest. With plenty of sunshine and breezy south winds,
temperatures will warm into the 70s to lower 80s by the afternoon.
Lows Friday night will also stay on the mild side, in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
The warming trend will continue on Saturday ahead of the strong
cold front on Sunday. Zonal flow will dominate aloft with breezy
south-southwest winds in the lower levels. This will bring
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal with highs mainly in the
80s. A few locations across our western zones could reach 90
degrees.
For Sunday, model guidance continue to show a fairly strong cold
front arriving some time during the afternoon or early evening.
Gusty north winds will spread across the region with sustained
winds around 20-30 mph and gusts up to 35-40 mph. The combination
of the low humidity (RH between 20-35%) and gusty winds may
increase the fire weather threat across the region. One limiting
factor will be the recent rainfall, but at least we could see
some elevated fire concerns materialize Sunday afternoon.
While we won`t see much precipitation with the front, a few light
showers may able to sneak into a few locations east of I-35
Sunday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, we`re expecting the cold
airmass to track south into our area Sunday night and Monday.
We`re looking at lows near or below freezing for much of North
Texas by Monday morning. The cooler weather will stay with us all
day Monday with highs in the low to mid 50s.
After a chilly start of the week, above normal temperatures
will return during the mid to late week period. A mid-level ridge
is expected to dominate the pattern over the southern Plains. This
will bring the more seasonal/warmer weather with the return of
highs in the 70s and 80s by next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Quiet weather with no aviation concerns expected. SKC with
southerly winds will prevail through the period. Overall, light
winds are anticipated through tonight but will increase to around
11-13 kts tomorrow morning and continue throughout the day.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 48 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 64 44 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 63 43 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 63 43 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 63 45 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 65 48 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 63 44 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 64 46 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 64 42 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 65 43 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanchez
LONG TERM....Sanchez
AVIATION...Sanchez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
