Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
702
FXUS64 KFWD 081102
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Non-severe thunderstorms will continue this morning across North
and Central Texas.
- The severe weather threat increases this evening, then again
Sunday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threats.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
Thunderstorms continue across parts of North and Central Texas
this early morning. Instance of small hail will continue to be
possible with the strongest storms, however, severe weather
remains unlikely.
This early afternoon`s rain chance have been slightly trimmed to
the east as guidance has backed off on the western extent of the
precipitation. Regarding this evenings severe weather potential --
the forecast remains unchanged. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop across Central Oklahoma and migrate south into North
Texas. Best timing for storms crossing the Red River remains
around 10pm. The main hazard this evening will be damaging winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
Early morning showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across North
Texas, along the leading edge of a northward surging moisture
plume. The moisture plume is largely confined above 6,000 feet,
keeping any thunderstorm activity elevated. With MUCAPE between
1000-1500 J/kg, the potential for some small hail cannot be ruled
out with this morning activity. However, severe storms are not
anticipated. Later this morning, additional thunderstorm activity
is expected across Central Texas as a shortwave emerges out of the
northern Mexican Plateau. Similar to the ongoing thunderstorms,
the activity across Central Texas is expected to remain elevated
in nature. Mid-level cooling will likely lead to increasing
instability, ranging from 1500-1800 J/kg. With effective shear
between 40-50 kts, a few strong cannot be ruled out through the
early afternoon hours along and south of I-20 through the early
afternoon hours. The shortwave responsible for this mornings
activity will quickly shift east of our region, leading to a
temporary lull in precipitation chances around sunset today.
Heading into the evening and tonight, the likelihood of
a line of storms moving in from the north has increased -- some
of these storms could be strong to severe. The origin of this
convective activity will be a cold front that is expected to stall
across Central Oklahoma. Individual supercells will grow upscale
and develop an MCS. Forward propagating vectors place this MCS
along the Red River as early as 10pm. The greatest storm hazard
will be straight line damaging winds along the leading edge of the
storms, however, a few instances of hail cannot be ruled out.
This activity will progress southward overnight, however, an
overall weakening trend is expected as it becomes farther removed
from the large scale forcing for ascent.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
A cut-off low will emerge out of northern Mexico Saturday morning,
moving across Central Texas throughout the day. Ahead of the low,
enhanced forcing for ascent will keep low storm chances confined
to Central and East Texas. The passing shortwave will increase
overall instability, however, weak deep-layer shear will keep the
threat for severe weather at bay. Nonetheless, a few quick-hitting
storms may temporarily disrupt any outdoor afternoon activities.
Longwave troughing across the Great Lakes will send a shortwave
south out of the Rockies on Sunday. A trailing cold front will
accompany this shortwave with another round of showers and
thunderstorms possible across North and Central Texas. The front
is now expected to approach our region by mid-afternoon, surging
southward through the evening. MLCAPE ahead of the front will
approach 3000 J/Kg with deep-layer shear between 30-40 kts. This
will once again increase the threat for strong to severe storms
with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. This front
will progress southward, driving the severe weather risk south of
our region early Monday morning.
Surface high pressure will settle in behind the cold front,
delivering a precipitation-free period across North and Central
Texas. Temperatures Monday will be in the upper 70s to around 80.
This "cooler" weather will be short-lived as temperatures rebound
to the 90s by the middle of next week as a mid and upper level
ridge move overhead.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
Concerns... TS ongoing across northern D10 and south of KACT.
A cluster of thunderstorms continues to impact northern portions
of D10. This highest thunderstorm potential will continue through
12z as additional convective elements have developed across
western portions of D10. There may be some storms in the vicinity
of the DFW Metroplex TAF through 14z, followed by a mostly
precipitation free late morning and afternoon.
For Waco, this morning`s thunderstorm activity has remained about
30-40 miles south of the TAF site. Latest trends show KACT
remaining mostly precipitation-free, however, a few storms may
approach the airport between 12-13 this morning.
A cluster of storms will be moving in from Oklahoma this evening,
however, there remains some uncertainty on the southern extent of
the thunderstorm potential. The latest thinking is that storms
will cross the Red River and begin decaying as they approach the
US-380 corridor. Given this uncertainty, no mention of
thunderstorm activity is being added to the 12z TAFs. However,
this will continue to be assessed through the day and may be added
if guidance trends in that direction.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening along and
north of US-380. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 65 86 68 / 20 20 10 0
Waco 79 66 84 67 / 20 20 20 0
Paris 78 60 82 64 / 10 30 10 10
Denton 80 62 86 67 / 10 20 0 10
McKinney 80 63 85 66 / 20 20 10 10
Dallas 81 65 87 68 / 20 20 10 0
Terrell 79 63 84 66 / 20 30 10 0
Corsicana 81 67 86 68 / 20 30 20 0
Temple 80 67 85 67 / 20 20 30 0
Mineral Wells 81 61 86 65 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
