Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
537
FXUS64 KFWD 162312
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
612 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another freeze is expected for most of North and Central Texas
tonight with low temperatures ranging from 25 to 34 degrees.
Sensitive plants will need to be covered or brought inside.
- Much warmer and rain-free weather will return by late week
with highs mostly in the 90s from Friday through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
While still quite breezy, this afternoon will be much more
manageable than yesterday. Northerly winds with gusts up to around
20-30 mph will persist on and off through this afternoon,
gradually decreasing in intensity and cadence as the post-frontal
surface high continues to slide into Oklahoma and North Texas.
With the region situated on the back edge of the departing upper-
level trough, north to northwest flow aloft will keep pushing
occasionally dense cirrus clouds across North and Central Texas
today. With the influx of cloud cover and continued amplified cold
air advection, high temperatures this afternoon will only be able
to peak into the 40s and 50s. Even with the cooler conditions, we
remain within a very dry airmass. Continued breezy and dry
conditions will keep our threat for wildfires elevated across much
of the region this afternoon.
The aforementioned surface high is expected to be atop North and
Central Texas tonight into Tuesday morning, which will aid in
marked decrease in wind speeds and gusts to less than 10 mph
tonight. While the continued influx of cirrus may offset more
efficient radiational cooling, these light winds will still allow
temperatures across the region to plummet into the mid-upper 20s
to near freezing, outside of our more highly urban areas like DFW.
Wind chills will be in the 20s to around 30, so another morning
of protecting sensitive plants and bundling up on your morning
commute will be necessary. A late season Freeze Warning is now in
effect for all of North and Central Texas from 3 AM to 9 AM
Tuesday to account for these cold temperatures and the impacts
they will have on sensitive and new vegetation growth.
Southerly winds will have returned by daybreak tomorrow with
afternoon speeds increasing to 15-20 mph, gusting to around 25-30
mph. High temperatures will be able to reach the 60s and 70s. A
lag in moisture return will keep conditions dry as humidity drops
into the 15-25% range, allowing for another day of elevated fire
weather concerns, particularly near and west of I-35.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
After starting the week feeling more like winter, we will end the
week with summer-like conditions. The eastern CONUS trough will
continue to be shunted further east by a building upper-level
ridge over the western half of the country. The center of the
ridge will slowly advance east across the Desert Southwest and
northern Mexico, pushing more subsident air into North and Central
Texas as the week goes on. Continued southerly winds and
increasingly subsident air will promote quite the warming trend
over the long term forecast period. Over the latter half of the
week and into the weekend, low- mid level (850-500 mb) mean
temperatures are in at least the 90th climatological percentile,
and with efficient diurnal mixing each afternoon, these warmer
temperatures will be able to translate somewhat down towards the
ground. In response, temperatures are expected to reach into the
80s and 90s starting Thursday. These temperatures are expected to
near or even exceed daily high records for our DFW and Waco
climate sites.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
North winds are beginning to decrease in speed as of 23z, and will
remain near or below 10 kts through the overnight hours while
gradually returning to southerly. The return to south flow should
occur around 04-05z at Metroplex airports, and closer to 06z at
Waco. BKN/OVC cirrus will also vacate the area overnight, with
only a few high clouds remaining heading into tomorrow. Southerly
wind speeds will increase by late Tuesday morning, with a few
daytime gusts near 25 kts expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 33 66 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 26 65 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 28 60 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 27 66 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 28 64 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 34 66 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 27 64 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 32 66 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 28 67 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 29 69 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
