Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
917
FXUS64 KFWD 130932
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
432 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and a few storms will be possible today across
East Texas. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat.
- An active pattern will persist all week with storm chances and
potential for strong to severe storms both Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- A strong cold front this weekend is expected to bring much
cooler temperatures and dry weather for late weekend into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Radar imagery early this morning shows scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue across parts of Central Texas. This
activity is occurring along and south of the remnant outflow
boundary from last night`s QLCS. With the main upper shortwave now
shifting off to the northeast and the loss of daytime heating,
this activity should continue to diminish with time. Otherwise,
today will be much warmer across North and Central Texas as our
region sees heights rise aloft due to weak ridging between
yesterday`s system and the next system on Tuesday/Wednesday. Highs
will reach well into the 80s areawide with some 90s expected in
the our western counties as well. Will keep some low pops in our
eastern counties for today as guidance shows some redevelopment of
showers/storms this afternoon. Will also have some slight chance
pops in our northwest and north late this afternoon into tonight
as there is low but nonzero potential for some dryline activity to
make it this far east, but this seems very unlikely.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
The active weather pattern will ramp back up Tuesday and Wednesday
as an upper level trough over the Four Corners slowly swings out
into the Plains, leading to height falls over our region and
strengthening southwest flow aloft. The dryline will setup from
western Oklahoma southward into the Big Bend on Tuesday, and at
least widely scattered activity is likely to form along it Tuesday
afternoon/evening and make its way eastward towards our western
counties. It remains unclear how much storm activity will be able
to enter our forecast area and survive as forecast soundings show
a strong cap will be in place. However, MLCAPE around 1500 J/Kg
along with 0-8km shear up to 65 knots and 0-1km shear up to 30
knots indicates any storms could get strong or severe. Large hail
looks to be the main threat as mid level lapse rates peak over
8C/km, but some damaging winds and maybe an isolated tornado are
possible.
A better chance for rain and some strong/severe storms exists for
Wednesday as the main upper trough axis shifts across the southern
Plains, pushing the dryline into our western counties. Guidance
suggests some morning showers and storms may arrive from the west
on Wednesday morning, which makes the potential for strong/severe
activity later in the day uncertain. Even so, forecast soundings
show MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/Kg along with 0-8km shear up to 70
knots, which would be favorable for some storms to produce large
hail and damaging winds. Low level shear will remain weak during
the day but strengthen some from late Wednesday afternoon into
the evening as low level winds back and the LLJ increases, which
could allow for an isolated tornado.
Thursday appears likely to be a quiet day as the dryline shifts
well westward into West Texas and upper ridging builds in the
wake of Wednesday`s upper trough. A secondary upper trough looks
to eject out into the Plains on Friday shoving the dryline
eastward into our Big Country counties, but a giant cap will
likely prevent much if any activity from forming in our forecast
area despite strong instability/shear. Showers/storms are more
likely on Friday night into Saturday as a strong cold front
sweeps southward through the Plains, arriving in the Metroplex
around 12Z Saturday and pushing southeast out of our CWA by 18Z.
Strong/severe storms appear unlikely along the front as
instability will be weakening ahead of it. The front will usher
in much cooler temperatures and several rainless days for early
next week with lows in the 40s/50s and highs only in the 60s/70s.
The cooler weather looks to be short lived, however, as the
warmth and humidity returns by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
MVFR cigs will continue at D10 airports this morning with
IFR cigs at ACT. Improvement back to VFR is anticipated around
17Z with VFR conditions continue into Monday night before another
round of MVFR cigs arrives early Tuesday morning. No precipitation
is expected at airports this TAF period, with brisk south winds up
to 20 knots continuing.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 68 81 67 / 10 10 30 40
Waco 83 67 81 66 / 10 10 10 20
Paris 80 66 81 65 / 20 20 10 20
Denton 85 67 81 65 / 10 10 30 50
McKinney 83 67 80 67 / 10 10 20 40
Dallas 85 68 82 68 / 10 10 20 30
Terrell 83 67 81 67 / 10 10 10 20
Corsicana 85 69 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
Temple 83 67 83 67 / 10 10 10 20
Mineral Wells 88 66 81 64 / 10 20 50 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION...Shamburger
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
