Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
282
FXUS64 KFWD 132322
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
522 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread thunderstorms are expected to start early Saturday
morning, continuing through the evening across much of North and
Central Texas.
- The severe weather threat is low, however, hail and gusty winds
will be the main concerns through much of the day. A quick spin-
up cannot be ruled out in the Brazos Valley/SE Texas tomorrow
afternoon and evening.
- Well above normal temperatures will continue through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Another tranquil weather afternoon is ongoing across North and
Central Texas with mid and high level clouds continuing to stream
in from the west/southwest. This cloud cover is arriving ahead of
an approaching upper trough, currently over the Baja California
peninsula. Over the next few hours, temperatures will continue to
warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region. These
temperatures are roughly between 15-20 degrees above normal for
this time of the year.
The trough to our west contains a few embedded shortwaves which
will gradually work their way to the east starting this evening
and through the night. Increasing forcing for ascent will commence
overnight with a few light rain showers possible as early as
midnight across parts of North and Central Texas. Tonight`s
highest rain chances will be well west of our region, closer to
the Texas Panhandle. As the system moves east, the first shortwave
will likely arrive closer to sunrise with a quasi-linear complex
of storms just to our west. Instability during the morning hours
will be relatively low, generally on the order of 400-800 J/Kg.
Deep-layer shear, however, will be fairly strong. Therefore, the
greatest risk with any of the morning storms will likely be the
potential for small hail and gusty winds. A rogue isolated severe storm
cannot be ruled out, however, the severe weather potential
through the morning and early afternoon hours will remain low.
As we head into the latter half of the afternoon and evening
hours, southerly flow will increase ahead of the next wave of
ascent. By this time, a loosely organized line of storms will
likely be ongoing east of I-35. As the line encounters richer Gulf
moisture and slightly steeper lapse rates, the potential for
strong to severe storms will increase slightly across the Brazos
Valley and our southeastern counties. Slightly higher instability,
along with increasing deep layer shear will yield a higher threat
for large hail and damaging winds. Given the increasing 0-3 km
shear vectors across the Brazos Valley, there could be a slightly
higher risk for short-lived spin-ups along any north-south
oriented line segments. This potential will be low, albeit,
something we`ll continue to monitor in the next 24 hours.
As the line of storms continues to grow upscale tomorrow
evening, the main line will exit our region and enter far East
Texas after midnight. Although the highest risk for severe weather
will shift east, we`ll have the potential for additional storms
across North Texas through the first half of Saturday night. This
will be in response to lingering moisture, co-located with the
very steep lapse rates as the trough (by this time a closed low)
moves overhead. A few storms capable of small hail cannot be ruled
out through around 4 AM Sunday morning.
The overall flash flooding threat will remain low through tomorrow
night given absorbent soils in place due to a lack of appreciable
recent rainfall. Rain amounts will likely range between 1-2 inches
with some locations to the north of I-20 and west of US-75 picking
up closer to 2.5 inches.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
Sunday will be the beginning of a precipitation-free period that
will continue through at least next Friday. With the jet stream
shifting northward, North and central Texas will largely be
influenced by increasing heights and well above normal
temperatures. This will translate to an increasing risk for fire
starts by the middle of next week. The weather Tuesday onward
will be characterized by relative humidity values in the 20-30%
range and breezy southerly to southwesterly winds. Although
tomorrow`s rainfall may help mitigate Tuesday`s fire weather
threat, sufficient drying will continue through the middle of the
week, incrementally increasing the fire weather threat going into
Thursday as a precipitation-free cold front approaches the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026
VFR and south winds currently prevail, with a steadily thickening
mid-cloud canopy overhead. Strengthening southerly flow will send
MVFR and eventually IFR stratus into the area after 06z tonight,
with cigs reaching their lowest heights between 13-18z tomorrow
morning. A convective line will approach all airports from the
west/northwest by 17-18z, and this will result in TS impacts
through early/mid afternoon along with a temporary NW wind shift.
Winds should recover to south/southwesterly behind the initial
batch of precip (after perhaps a period of high variability due to
a wake low), while intermittent trailing stratiform rain
continues into the early evening. As the main upper low passes
overhead after ~02z, additional isolated thunderstorms are
expected within D10. This will quickly be followed by the system`s
trailing cold front and associated NW wind shift just beyond the
current valid forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested on Saturday due to
isolated strong or severe thunderstorms. Even if activation is
not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the
National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 69 53 67 / 40 100 70 0
Waco 63 70 55 68 / 20 90 50 0
Paris 60 67 55 64 / 30 100 90 10
Denton 59 68 49 67 / 60 100 70 0
McKinney 60 68 52 66 / 40 100 80 0
Dallas 63 69 55 67 / 40 100 70 0
Terrell 60 69 53 66 / 30 100 80 0
Corsicana 63 71 55 69 / 20 100 80 0
Temple 62 72 52 71 / 20 90 40 0
Mineral Wells 59 71 50 70 / 70 100 50 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
