Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
420
FXUS64 KFWD 262343
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
543 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions are expected today through Friday.
- Chances for showers and a few storms will return late Friday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Rainfall totals are expected
to range from 1/10 inch to over 1 inch. A few strong storms are
also possible on Saturday, mainly in Central Texas.
- A strong cold front will move through the area late Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night, bringing the coldest weather
of the season so far through the first half of next week. A few
showers will be possible Monday and Tuesday behind the front.
- While there may be a very brief window for winter precipitation
Monday night and Tuesday night, marginal temperatures will make
any accumulation or impacts very unlikely. It`s likely the
timing and location of sub-freezing temperatures and
precipitation chances will fail to align.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Chilly air will continue to filter into the region today in the
wake of last night`s cold front. Temperatures will remain in the
50s for most locations this afternoon with north to northeast
winds near 5 to 15 mph. Expect chilly temperatures overnight, with
lows falling into the mid 30s to low 40s. Light southerly winds
will return early Thursday, but cool conditions will persist.
Thanksgiving Day is shaping up to be quite pleasant, with
afternoon highs mostly in the mid 50s to low 60s and clearing
skies throughout the day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1204 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Moisture will begin to return to the region Thursday night into
Friday ahead of our next approaching system. As a result, mostly
cloudy to overcast skies will blanket the region Thursday night
and persist throughout the day Friday. Despite the return of
warm/moist advection, the dense cloud cover will offset daytime
heating on Friday, resulting in another cool day across the
region with afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. By Friday
afternoon, a weak shortwave trough aloft combined with
strengthening warm air advection may be enough to squeeze out a
few showers late in the afternoon, mainly across our western
zones. Warm air advection will intensify Friday night, resulting
in an increase in showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight
through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will be
barreling through the Texas Panhandle Saturday morning, entering
North Texas during the afternoon. Showers and storms will likely
see another uptick in coverage and intensity as the front
approaches, with the best potential for showers and storms
expected roughly along and east of the I-35 corridor. The front
will continue to sweep through the remainder of the forecast area
through the afternoon/evening, bringing an end to any rain
chances sometime Saturday night.
A few strong storms can`t be ruled out Saturday afternoon,
primarily across Central Texas. An isolated severe threat may
materialize, and the primary hazard would be hail. While dew
points will potentially be in the low to mid 60s across Central
Texas prior to the front`s arrival with abundant low-level shear,
it will be rather difficult for any storms to become surface-
based, as daytime destabilization will be difficult due to mostly
cloudy to overcast skies. IF for some reason storms were able to
become surface-based Saturday afternoon, there would be a small
window in which an isolated tornado could be possible across our
far south/southeast zones. However, this appears rather unlikely
at this time. Additionally, rainfall is expected to be rather
light with this system, with current rainfall totals ranging from
1/10th of an inch to just over 1 inch. Therefore, flooding is not
expected with the weekend rain and storms.
Winter will make an early appearance as the coldest temperatures
of the season so far are expected behind Saturday`s cold front.
Afternoon highs will be in the 40s for most areas Sunday through
Tuesday, with cold mornings in the 20s and 30s. Moisture return
may happen slightly faster behind this weekend`s front, which
could open the door for rain chances to return Monday and Tuesday
as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Yes, the rumors
are true - there will be a very brief window in which wintry
precipitation will be possible both Monday night and Tuesday
night, mainly near the Red River. However, temperatures likely
will not be cold enough for any noteworthy impacts, if wintry
precipitation were to occur. It`s also entirely within the realm
of possibilities that precipitation will fail to align in time
and/or space with the sub-freezing temperatures. Either way, just
keep an eye on the weather to stay informed over the next few
days, but don`t go buying up all of the bread and milk just yet!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025
Surface high pressure centered over Oklahoma will maintain
northeast winds around 5KT through Thursday. Winds will eventually
shift to the southeast Thursday evening as the surface ridge
shifts east towards the MS Valley. High pressure aloft will
otherwise provide VFR and overall quiet weather through the end
of the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 41 60 41 58 / 0 0 0 10
Waco 40 60 41 60 / 0 0 0 10
Paris 37 57 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 34 59 36 57 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 37 58 36 58 / 0 0 0 10
Dallas 41 60 41 58 / 0 0 0 10
Terrell 37 60 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 41 62 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 39 62 41 62 / 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 37 63 38 60 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
