Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
077
FXUS64 KFWD 161059
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front will move through on Saturday, accompanied
by scattered showers and storms.
- Much cooler conditions will linger into early next week before
temperatures begin to warm back up.
- Additional chances for rain are expected the first half of next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Overall, no major changes were made to the forecast this morning,
aside from putting in some patchy fog across our northwest where
visibilities have sporadically dropped.
One thing of note to add for this afternoon`s forecast is the
several-run trend in some of the CAMs that brings a couple of
dryline-induced storms into our northwestern counties late this
afternoon. I am not truly convinced of this due to the influx of
subsident air overhead and the lack of a more focused lifting
mechanism, unlike with yesterday where we had the shortwave
provide the ascent. I cannot rule out convection along the
dryline, but how much is quite uncertain. Added a silent 10% PoP
for the low chances this afternoon and evening, and we will
continue to keep an eye on any development this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
A much quieter couple of days is in store for North and Central
Texas as we head into the latter half of the week. The majority
of our earlier storms have fully exited the region to the
northeast, with a few lingering light showers in East Texas and a
rogue storm still tracking east south of the I-20 corridor. This
activity will continue to shift east as its upper-level shortwave
swings through the Midwest. All remaining rain should come to an
end later this morning as upper-level ridging builds into the
region in the wake of the departing shortwave. With the dryline
remaining to our west and subsident air increases overhead, expect
this afternoon to be fairly warm in the 80s to near 90 in some
spots.
A deepening upper low currently located in the PAC-NW will
traverse along the US-Canada border going into Friday, with
shortwaves digging further south into the Plains as the system as
a whole moves east. This will offset the ridge and send a strong
cold front southward through the Plains on Friday. This front is
not expected to impact the region until the overnight hours into
Saturday, so Friday will be another warm day as we remain east of
the dryline. A lee-side low is expected to develop and shift into
the Panhandles by the afternoon, promoting increasingly breezy
conditions with gusts to 25-35 mph in the afternoon.
We may observe a few showers and storms in our northwest on
Friday as increased lift out ahead of the incoming system spreads
further east into Texas and Oklahoma, and have continued to
advertise isolated chances during the day. Just how much
convective initiation we will see is uncertain as most CAMs and
medium resolution guidance have an elevated cap in place during
the afternoon, which would ultimately inhibit storm development.
However, we will need to remain cognizant as forecast soundings
show efficient instability and shear along with steep lapse rates
in the warm sector environment. All this being said: during the
day most of us will likely remain dry, but if a storm is able to
develop and break through the cap, it would have the potential to
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the
primary hazards. The highest severe threat is currently displaced
to our north closer to the triple point of the surface low and
various surface boundaries/fronts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
The front will move through North and Central Texas overnight
into Saturday morning, bringing cooler conditions and gusty north
winds. With ample moisture out ahead of the incoming boundary,
showers and storms are expected to develop along and behind the
front through Saturday as it advances south. While the overall
severe threat with the frontal activity is low, the aforementioned
pre-storm environment in the short term discussion above would
allow for the potential for a couple strong to marginally severe
storms along the front mainly capable of hail and wind gusts.
Again, the higher severe threat remains out of our CWA to the
north where better lift resides. Anything that lingers behind the
front would be elevated in nature, with potentially some small
hail falling out of any more robust cores. Post-frontal showers
will gradually shift south of our area, eventually coming to an
end by Sunday. Sunday morning is progged to be the coolest part of
the forecast, with morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Cooler post-
frontal conditions in the 60s and 70s are expected to persist into
this next week, though building ridging will call for a warm up
towards the end of the forecast. Additional chances for rain
continue to be present the first half of next week as shortwave
disturbances travel across the Plains, but it is too early to go
into specifics.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
MVFR cigs are beginning to develop and spread northward, though
just east of the TAF sites as of 11Z. These cigs are expected to
continue to develop and build in over the next several hours,
eventually moving overtop the airports around 12-13Z. The westward
extent is a bit more uncertain as latest HRRR and SREF guidance
keeps lower probabilities for cigs at FTW/AFW, so have
transitioned to a TEMPO group at those two sites. Otherwise,
expect cigs to gradually lift and scatter out later this morning,
becoming VFR by around noon. Southerly winds will prevail the rest
of the period, with another deck of MVFR stratus once again
expected to encroach the terminals near daybreak tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 67 85 58 / 0 10 10 50
Waco 85 66 86 60 / 0 0 0 20
Paris 83 65 83 56 / 10 10 10 50
Denton 86 66 83 53 / 0 10 10 60
McKinney 85 66 83 56 / 0 10 10 60
Dallas 88 67 85 57 / 0 10 10 50
Terrell 85 66 85 60 / 0 10 10 40
Corsicana 87 68 88 63 / 0 0 0 30
Temple 87 66 88 62 / 0 0 0 20
Mineral Wells 88 65 85 53 / 10 10 10 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Prater
LONG TERM....Prater
AVIATION...Prater
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
