Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
238
FXUS64 KFWD 201129
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
529 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures will briefly return to the region this
weekend behind a cold front.
- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
A couple of cold frontal passages along with the presence of
mid/high cloud cover will drop temperatures to near seasonal
normals through the short term forecast period, with highs in the
50s/60s and lows mostly in the 40s/50s today and tomorrow. The
first of these front is making southward progress through the
forecast area this morning, and it will maintain north winds of
10-15 mph beneath a thickening canopy of high cloud cover into the
daytime. The resultant filtered insolation will only allow highs
to climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of the CWA, as
much as 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday. In addition, cannot
completely rule out a few sprinkles of rain falling from the mid
cloud deck across parts of Central/East Texas this afternoon, and
we`ll carry a mention of sprinkles with measurable rainfall being
very unlikely.
Winds will quickly return to easterly and southeasterly this
evening as the frontal zone pivots back northward. However, a
second stronger cold front will arrive overnight into Saturday
morning. This second boundary will feature stronger northwest
winds, with a very breezy Saturday in store for most of the area
following its passage. Cold advection behind this front will be
rather weak though, and with less cloud cover accompanying it,
Saturday afternoon`s highs will be very close to or even a couple
degrees warmer than today`s. The associated rain chances are also
expected to remain east of the forecast area, and PoPs will be
below mentionable levels through Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
As Saturday`s cold front thoroughly scours moisture away into the
Gulf, the following few days will be seasonably cool and dry as
dewpoints in the 20s and 30s settle in through the early portion
of the workweek. Efficient radiational cooling will allow for a
few crisp mornings, a reminder that winter isn`t over just yet.
Sunday and Monday mornings will feature low temperatures in the
30s, while some portions of North Texas even dip into the upper
20s. Despite the low humidity, the cooler temperatures and fairly
light winds will prohibit elevated fire weather conditions during
this time period. That may change heading into the middle portion
of the week though, as a sharp warmup occurs by Wednesday. Midweek
highs may climb as much as 15-20 degrees above normal into the
mid 80s, and this would culminate in additional fire weather
concerns during the extended forecast period. Rain chances will
remain near zero through most of the workweek, with another likely
dry cold frontal passage occurring towards the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026
A cold front has passed through all TAF sites as of 12z, with a
post-frontal northeast wind of 10-15 kts prevailing through the
morning. Mid/high cloud cover arriving from the west will result
in periodic VFR cigs through much of the afternoon and evening,
with lower cigs at 4-5 kft more prevalent south of D10. Winds will
already return to easterly/southeasterly by this evening, before
another shift to light northwest winds occurs after 06z tonight.
Gustier winds will accompany a stronger cold front through the
area beginning late Saturday morning, with gusts to around 30 kts
during the daytime.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 45 63 36 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 63 49 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 60 45 63 32 / 10 10 10 0
Denton 59 41 60 30 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 60 43 62 33 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 62 47 63 37 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 63 46 65 34 / 10 10 10 0
Corsicana 66 50 68 38 / 10 0 10 0
Temple 66 50 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 61 40 61 31 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
