Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
929
FXUS64 KFWD 091049
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
549 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A stray shower or non-severe thunderstorm will be possible
(10-20% chance) across Central Texas Thursday afternoon.
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance) are expected
to develop Friday afternoon and evening.
- An active pattern will bring multiple rounds of storms to the
region this weekend into next week. Severe storms and flooding
will be possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
The forecast remains with just a few tweaks being made to the
Saturday portion of the AFD from the prior issuance.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...Thursday and Thursday night...
After a potentially cloudy morning, skies should clear by mid-day
allowing temperatures to warm into the upper-70s and lower-80s.
Thursday afternoon, a slow-moving subtle trough embedded in weak
zonal flow aloft will slowly nudge into the South Great Plains
with weak forcing for ascent across Central Texas (associated with
a small vorticity max coming off the Mexican Plateau). At the
surface, south-southeasterly flow will continue to feed Gulf
moisture into the area, allowing dew points to increase to the
upper-50s and lower-60s. Just above the boundary layer, some
guidance resolves weak isentropic ascent in this warm advective
regime. All these factors in combination with diurnal heating will
support isolated showers to develop Thursday afternoon and
evening primarily south of US-84. A stray thunderstorm, though
unlikely due to meager instability, can`t be ruled out.
Any convection that is able to develop and persist into Thursday
evening should quickly dissipate with the loss of diurnal heating.
As such, Thursday night looks to be dry but increasingly muggy
with continued moisture advection in the boundary layer. A surge
of low-level clouds is expected Thursday night in association with
the incoming humid airmass. While most will stay dry throughout
the night, some short range guidance has picked up on a localized
area generally south of US-84 and west of I-35 that could see
isolated showers develop around sunrise Friday morning (10-20%
chance).
...Friday...
Friday will be even more humid than Thursday with surface dew
points well into the 60s. Expect general cloudiness through the
morning with clearing again by around midday. Temperatures will
again warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region.
Friday afternoon synoptically will be very similar to Thursday,
with a weak shortwave trough over Texas and Oklahoma, a subtle
vort max traversing the state west to east, and a warm advective
regime near the surface topped by weak isentropic ascent. The one
difference will be boundary layer dew points ~5 degrees higher
than Thursday. This will result in a slightly more unstable
airmass than the day prior, leading to widely scattered diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms (30-40% chance) across Central
Texas. Coverage will be more isolated across North Texas (10-30%
chance). Some of the more aggressive guidance suggests SBCAPE over
1000 J/kg in Central Texas. Should this realize, a strong storm
or two with gusty winds and/or small hail can`t be ruled out. The
caveat to this scenario is whether clouds can clear in time for a
diurnally driven increase in instability like this despite weak
lapse rates aloft.
Similar to Thursday, convection should quickly wane into the late
evening and overnight with the loss of diurnal heating after
sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
...Saturday and Saturday night...
Saturday will be another warm and muggy day with surface dewpoints
in the mid and upper-60s, and highs again in the upper-70s and
lower-80s. By this point in the forecast period, longwave
troughing that is currently over the East Pacific will have
shifted over the West Coast and Great Basin. A jet streak looks to
round the base of this trough and extend northward throughout the
day into the Rockies and High Plains. Further east over much of
Central and North Texas, upper-level ridging will be in place, slowly
nudging east into the southern Mississippi River Valley.
Abundant boundary layer moisture and subtle, yet increasing,
forcing for ascent will lead to more persistent cloud cover in the
morning, potentially lingering into a large chunk of the
afternoon. Furthermore, the surface dry line will likely be well
to the west, extending roughly from Big Bend into the Texas
Panhandle. The combination of lingering cloud cover, meager
instability and primary forcing mechanisms remaining well to our
west will make strong/severe storms across North and Central
Texas unlikely during the day on Saturday. However, scattered
showers and non-severe thunderstorms may be possible owing to
weak synoptic scale forcing for ascent and abundant low-level
moisture. Should cloud cover clear earlier in the afternoon or by
late morning, there may be enough instability realized to support
a couple strong storms with gusty winds and small hail (10-20%
conditional chance).
The environment will generally be unfavorable for strong/severe
storms going into Saturday night as well for several reason:
1) Convective inhibition (capping) will quickly develop across the
region well in advance of any potential storm complexes coming off
the dry line from West Texas.
2) The jet streak will linger near the Texas-New Mexico border
Saturday night.
3) There will be little to no instability in place with MUCAPE
under 500 J/kg.
4) No surface based forcing mechanisms are expected as the dryline
retrogrades into eastern New Mexico.
Despite this environment being depicted both in the NAM and
amongst global models such as the ECMWF and GFS, the NBM has
still produced exceptionally high precipitation chances: 80+% for
locations generally west of I-35 and north of I-20 Sunday night.
To be a little informal here, I honestly have no clue where the
NBM is getting these PoPs. Though there is a chance a cluster or
two of storms can maybe make it to locations west of US-281
sometime after midnight, I find widespread rain and storms to be
unlikely. It looks like it is maybe being skewed by global models
like the ECMWF that have a much more aggressive solution with
regards to dry line convection and its longevity into the
nighttime hours. Even still, the ECMWF doesn`t bring this decaying
complex of storms into areas west of US-281 until well after
midnight. All this to say, I`m trusting the NBM as far as I can
throw it with regards to Saturday night storm potential, and as
such have drastically reduced the chances for precipitation into
the 40-60% range west of I-35. These probabilities fit better with
the more likely scenario in which a weakening complex of storms
embedded in light/moderate stratiform precipitation work their
way into areas west of I-35 after midnight. Small hail and gusty
winds may be possible in the stronger downdrafts, but at this
point in time severe weather seems unlikely.
...Sunday and Monday...
Storm potential on Sunday looks to be more substantial as the jet
streak out west will move across the South Great Plains this day.
The ECMWF and GFS are not only in general agreement on the
evolution of this upper-level feature in their latest runs, but
the last several iterations of both models seem to be converging
on this solution, lending more confidence into this scenario.
The core of this jet streak looks to be to the north-northeast
somewhere over the lower Missouri River Valley. As such, strong
flow (60-80 kts) and divergence aloft will provide widespread
synoptic forcing for ascent across the region. Moderate surface
based instability (1500-2500 J/kg) also appears probable,
especially along and west of the I-35 corridor. At the surface,
the dryline still looks to remain to our west, likely extending
from Big Bend up into western Oklahoma. As such, the most probable
scenario at this time would be scattered thunderstorm development
along the dryline and just east in the instability tongue across
the southern Great Plains (generally west of I-35 in North and
Central Texas).
There are a few complicating factors to the forecast for Sunday,
namely the potential for morning convection that would act to
mitigate destabilization into the afternoon, or at the very least
inhibit a more substantial severe weather threat. This signal in
medium range guidance may also be left-over from the likely
overdone convection Saturday night. Regardless, there will be a
conditional threat for severe weather generally along and west of
I-35 Sunday afternoon and evening as long as clouds and any
potential convection clear early enough for sufficient diurnally
driven destabilization.
On Monday, more substantial troughing looks to establish itself
over the Great Basin with strong southwesterly flow aloft
extending from the Desert Southwest into the Central Great Plains.
Near the surface, SBCAPE will again potentially rebound to the
1500 to 2500 J/kg range. The dryline also looks to generally have
the same configuration as Sundays. Similar to Sunday, cloud cover
will again be a complicating factor to storm potential Monday
afternoon and evening. As such, there will again be a conditional
threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across North
and Central Texas.
Regardless of how the severe weather plays out these days, PWAT
values look to be anomalously high for this time of year, likely
exceeding 1.5". As such, there will be the potential for flooding
with any storms that are able to train over the same location.
More confidence in flooding potential will come once storm motion
and dryline evolution becomes more clear (will storm motion be
more parallel to the boundary favoring upscale growth or not?).
...Tuesday and Wednesday...
There is some signal these two days for a more substantial threat
for strong to severe storms as the primary trough (with the most
robust vorticity max of the disturbances discussed in this
forecast period) finally ejects into the Great Plains. However,
uncertainty with regards to morning cloud cover and convection,
timing and intensity of the upper-level trough, and the
configuration and evolution of surface boundaries (namely the
dryline) all preclude any meaningful in depth discussion on
midweek severe potential. Nonetheless, this time period bears
keeping an eye on, so please check subsequent forecasts for any
updates as model guidance (hopefully) becomes more certain on a
potential scenario.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026
MVFR cigs have begun to develop across Central Texas and are
expected at KACT by 13Z. There is a chance (30-40%) for MVFR to
build in at KACT closer to 12Z, so will monitor for potential
amendments. The northward extent looks to stop right in the
Metroplex. As such, have kept but shortened the TEMPO MVFR at KDFW,
KDAL and KGRK, and removed it from KFTW and KAFW. There is still
a 20-30% chance that MVFR cigs extend north through the entire
Metroplex, returning to VFR by 16Z. After 12Z Friday, more
widespread MVFR/IFR stratus will develop across Central and North
Texas. It is already in the KDFW TAF, and expect it to be included
in the rest of the TAF sites with 18Z issuance.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 65 81 64 / 10 10 30 10
Waco 79 64 79 64 / 20 10 40 20
Paris 78 61 78 61 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 78 62 80 61 / 10 10 30 10
McKinney 79 63 79 63 / 10 0 20 10
Dallas 81 65 81 64 / 10 10 30 10
Terrell 79 63 80 62 / 10 0 20 10
Corsicana 80 63 82 64 / 10 10 30 10
Temple 79 64 80 63 / 20 20 40 20
Mineral Wells 78 62 80 61 / 10 10 40 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
