Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
364
FXUS64 KFWD 291034
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
534 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly quiet and warm weather is expected through the weekend
with above normal temperatures and low rain chances (~10-20%).
- Scattered storms return to the forecast area-wide Tuesday
through Thursday of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Earlier convection across North Texas has dissipated leaving
behind warm and humid conditions with light southeast winds.
Scattered mid and high clouds will continue through the rest of
the overnight with a very low chance for an isolated shower prior
to sunrise.
Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough digging across the
southwest U.S. tonight. Ahead of this trough, weak mid-level
ridging is spreading into the Southern Plains which will bring
large scale subsidence to the region resulting in a warm but
mostly dry day Friday. Deep moisture will still be pooled across
East Texas however, and despite the weak subsidence, we can`t rule
out an isolated shower or storm, but coverage is expected to be
10% or less through peak afternoon heating. The ridge axis will be
quick to move east ahead of the upper trough and height falls that
will overspread the TX Panhandle by late Friday afternoon.
Increasing forcing for ascent in this region will likely result in
some thunderstorms developing across northwest TX during the late
afternoon and evening, but mid level flow should take these off
to the northeast where they`ll eventually encounter increasing
inhibition and diminish fairly quickly.
A quiet night is expected Friday night with scattered mid and high
cloud cover and lows in the low to mid 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
With the ridge axis to our east by Saturday and the aforementioned
upper trough spreading northeast across the Intermountain West,
we`ll be largely removed from the stronger synoptic scale forcing
for ascent during the first half of the weekend. That being said,
a dryline will sharpen Saturday afternoon and will be draped
across western Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. Thunderstorms
are likely to develop along the dryline mainly to our north and
west, with stronger capping in place across North Texas. We`ll
keep PoPs at 10% or less across our northwest counties, but these
may need to be bumped up a bit if it appears that convective
development will be possible farther south. With a departing upper
jet and stronger forcing well removed, it appears unlikely that
we`ll see much in the way of development in our area. It will be
hot and humid though with highs about 5-7 degrees above normal in
the low/mid 90s. Heat index values will notch up a bit as well in
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees for Saturday afternoon.
Sunday generally looks quiet as ridging over the northern Gulf
expands northwest into our area leaving North Texas warm again
with highs in the low/mid 90s. By Monday, this ridging will get
nudged east again by a weak disturbance spreading out of Northern
Mexico. Low and mid-level flow will remain quite weak, so large
scale forcing will also be weak but PW values will steadily climb.
With weakness in the mid-level heights present Monday afternoon
through Thursday, large scale subsidence will be largely absent.
This will result in an uptick in diurnal convection driven largely
by heating and mesoscale boundary interaction. As of now, it
appears that convective chances will be highest on Tuesday and
Wednesday when the upper low is nearly overhead. Strong afternoon
instability and deep moisture will support an isolated severe wind
threat with the strongest storms, but very weak flow will
encourage slow storm motions with a heavy rainfall potential. PoPs
will generally range from 20-50% each afternoon Tuesday through
Thursday across all of North and Central TX.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
VFR generally prevails across the region this morning except for
some low clouds in the Arklatex and some MVFR cigs spreading north
out of Central TX. None of this should impact the D10 airspace
through the morning. South winds around 10 kt will prevail through
the period with some variability in direction through the day
between 170-210 degrees. Otherwise...any convection should remain
well removed from the airports today.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 93 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 88 72 91 73 / 10 10 0 0
Denton 92 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 10
McKinney 91 74 92 76 / 10 0 0 10
Dallas 94 76 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 91 73 92 75 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 92 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 92 72 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
