Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
079
FXUS64 KFWD 161823
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
123 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central
Texas this afternoon. We do not plan to extend it into tomorrow
at this time.
- An elevated fire threat will exist primarily west of I-35
today.
- Slightly cooler weather and low rain chances return late Sunday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
This afternoon/evening should be largely wash, rise, repeat of the
past couple days as our area remains under large-scale subsidence
between areas of lift to the west and east. The area of lift to
the west should stay west and not impact the local weather much in
the short term, however subtle changes are expected tomorrow as a
faint moisture plume to the east starts to work into our area.
Some agitated cumulus over far East Texas may induce a few showers
this afternoon, but the chance of any thunderstorms or meaningful
precip is 10% or less. The fire threat is still slightly elevated
this afternoon, mainly along and west of US-281, but lighter wind
speeds should preclude significant resistance to control of any
fire starts.
Slightly better moisture should move into our forecast area from
the east tonight and tomorrow as a weak low-level trough moves
over the Texas Coastal Plains and the flow aloft becomes more
easterly. The main impact of this will be slightly lower
temperatures, but still hot in the upper 90s to low 100s, and
higher coverage of the afternoon cumulus field. We should also see
isolated showers develop across the eastern half of our forecast
area in the afternoon, mainly near any localized areas of low-
level confluence or subtle mid-level perturbations. Most precip
tomorrow should be shallow as updrafts remain sandwiched between
the deeply mixed boundary layer (LCLs/cloud bases around 7,000
ft) and strong subsidence aloft based around 12-15,000 ft).
Despite all of this attention on the precip, PoPs are only between
10-20% with even less chance of a thunderstorm (095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Bonnette
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
