Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
516
FXUS64 KFWD 040621
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
121 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance) are possible
Friday for portions of Central Texas and the Big Country.
- Elevated fire weather concerns are expected in the Big Country
Saturday into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
Today will be the last day of clouds and rain for portions of
North and Central Texas owing to the remnants of Edouard. With the
circulation nearly dissipated, any convection that develops today
will be isolated in nature (20-30% coverage). The area most
likely to see these pop-up storms will generally be along and west
of the I-35 corridor, and south of US-380. Cloud cover across
much of Central Texas will also keep highs in the low to mid-90s.
North Texas will have clearer skies and stronger daytime heating
resulting in afternoon temperatures in the upper-90s. A few
locations west of US-281 and north of I-20 may again flirt with
triple digit heat today.
Any showers/storms that are able to develop during the day today
should dissipate within 2-3 hours of sunset tonight. Conditions
should be warm and humid with lows in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
By this weekend, strong ridging aloft will shift back east over
much of the Great Plains. This will promote clear skies and hot
temperatures as surface high pressure and synoptic scale
subsidence dominates the region`s weather. As such, highs will be
above average (upper-90s and lower-100s) with most remaining dry
through next week. The one exception will be for locations in the
Brazos Valley. During this time frame, a weak tropical wave will
stagnate over the Gulf Coast. The weakness in heights over the
humid tropical airmass at the surface will promote isolated
(10-30% chance) daytime thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
this weekend into next week. The greatest chances for rain each
day will be east of I-35 and south of US-84, though a stray shower
or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out (10-20% chance) east of a line
from Mexia to Sulphur Springs Saturday afternoon.
Fire weather concerns will be elevated once again across the Big
Country beginning this weekend. With triple digit temperatures
likely each afternoon and dew points mixing down into the
low/mid-60s, min RH will drop into the 25% to 35% range. In
addition to the dry airmass in place, winds will be out of the
south/southeast 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph. Fuels
also remain cured across the region as little to no rain is
expected with the soon to dissipate remnants of Edouard.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
Isolated showers have developed on the southwest side of D10
prompting the inclusion of VCSH and TEMPO SHRA to FTW, AFW, and
GRK. The exact location of shower development and how fast they
will move towards the west is uncertain, so the end of VCSH may be
adjusted 1-2 hours sooner or later than what`s in the TAFs (same
with KACT). Between 12Z and 02Z, a stray shower or thunderstorm
(10-20% chance) can`t be ruled out at any of the TAF sites, but
probabilities are too low to warrant inclusion in the TAFs at this
time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 77 98 78 / 20 0 0 0
Waco 95 74 96 74 / 30 0 10 0
Paris 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 97 74 98 74 / 20 0 0 0
McKinney 95 73 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 97 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 0
Terrell 97 73 97 74 / 10 0 10 0
Corsicana 95 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 0
Temple 96 72 97 73 / 30 0 10 0
Mineral Wells 98 71 100 71 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
