Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
785
FXUS64 KFWD 191914
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected along a cold front on
Tuesday across much of North and Central TX. Some of these
storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail.
- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will continue
Wednesday into the weekend. Locally heavy rain will be possible
but the severe weather threat appears low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
A relatively active pattern is starting to take shape over North and
Central Texas for the next several days. A cold front is currently
moving through North Texas that has a somewhat impressive
temperature gradient associated with it. The temperature in Bowie is
in the mid 50s, while the remainder of the CWA ahead of the front
has temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. Expect the front to slowly
move south this afternoon and eventually stall south of I-20 this
evening. Additional outflow boundaries should allow for a few storms
to develop across Western Central Texas later in the day, ahead of
the front. In addition, a strong and fast-moving outflow boundary is
moving south across eastern North Texas. Although this boundary is
not the aforementioned cold front, it is still providing sufficient
lift to produce scattered showers and storms along and behind the
boundary. We`re also monitoring the area east of I-35 and south of I-
20 where additional disorganized showers and storms may develop in
association with a remnant MCV over the Brazos Valley.
The pre-frontal airmass is very moist and unstable, with dewpoint
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across most of the area.
Instability aloft varies quite a bit across the region. The most
unstable airmass resides over western Central Texas with MLCAPE
values around 4000+ J/kg. Most of North Texas is still unstable with
MLCAPE values around 3000 or so, but the 18Z FWD RAOB sounding
indicates that lapse rates aloft are not as impressive as they were
earlier today, falling from 8.9 degC/km to only 7.2. Areas where MCV
convection is possible are even more stable with MLCAPE values only
around 1500.
The convection today has been and will continue to be disorganized
at best. For starters, the cold front is very shallow, so it is
undercutting the warm and humid air, forcing the updrafts to go up
well behind the boundary and lose access to the warm/unstable air in
short-order. Once the storms are able to develop, the deep-layer
shear is unfavorable for organized convection. The sheer amount of
instability will maintain our severe threat through the afternoon
and evening, but the threat will be isolated and dependent on
individual updrafts organizing instead of using the background
environment. The main threats continue to be large hail and damaging
wind gusts, mainly for areas south of I-20 and west of I-35.
To our west, a cluster of storms has developed near San Angelo that
will continue through the afternoon/evening. The cluster should
merge into a nocturnal MCS that takes a turn east-southeast toward
our Central Texas counties overnight. Depending on how far north the
storms develop, they may move into our Western Central Texas
counties around midnight, or they may just skirt our counties just
to the south. There may be an isolated damaging wind gust with
this activity, but the severe threat should be lower by this time.
While not mentioned in the discussion above...the very warm airmass
is allowing for efficient rainfall today. While we haven`t observed
any significant flooding, some areas have already received over 2"
of rain today. Expect ponding on roadways and minor flooding of
typical flood-prone locations with most storms today. There will be
an increased risk of flash flooding for areas that have
intersecting boundaries, where multiple updrafts can develop in
the same area simultaneously.
The cold front will remain stalled over North and Central Texas
tomorrow, but start to wash out as southerly flow starts to take
over in the afternoon. In addition, a weak mid-level shortwave will
start to move across the state, triggering additional showers and
storms late in the day into the evening. Instability looks to be
much weaker tomorrow, with little threat of strong or severe storms.
This would allow for the rare occurrence of beneficial spring-time
rainfall with little risk of severe weather. The counter, however is
that the airmass will still be capable of producing very efficient
rain-making downdrafts. If storms are able to form along the stalled
front and train in locations that received heavy rain today, there
would be an increased risk of flash flooding. Pinpointing where
these features will be is futile given the weak forcing aloft, so I
would consider this a very low confidence forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
The surface boundary should almost completely lift north by
Thursday as a more organized mid- and upper-level system is
forecast to move across the Southern Plains. This should trigger
an additional round of showers and storms across the region
Thursday into Friday. Limited instability and shear will keep the
severe threat very low, but the flood threat will be ratcheted up,
particularly for localized areas that receive heavy rain multiple
days in a row. Southwest winds aloft will remain in place through
the weekend, with some of the global guidance bringing in cut off
low features into early next week. While we are not confident of
exactly how the forecast will pan out in the extended-range, the
chance of beneficial rainfall across the region will continue
through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
A cold front is moving through D10, bringing a sharp NW wind shift
over the next couple hours. 30-60 minutes behind the wind shift,
thunderstorms are expected to develop. The storms are gradually
moving ENE. Expect storms INVOF the D10 terminals through at least
22-23Z before moving E and S. There is a chance that storms
linger a few hours beyond that, but decided to keep the forecast
a little more optimistic at this time. Gusty and erratic winds are
expected with any storm today!
Once the storms move E and S, north winds are forecast to prevail
with a scattering of low clouds. We are not confident if the
clouds will be MVFR or VFR, so kept ILS ceilings in the forecast
with a SCT MVFR deck. A nocturnal MCS is also forecast to move
across Central or South Texas tonight. It should remain south of
D10, but may impact ACT in the early morning hours.
We have MVFR ceilings in the forecast at all terminals tomorrow
morning, but there is a chance the ceilings fall to IFR with some
visibility restrictions as well. We will leave those details to be
added in future TAFs.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Limited spotter activation may be requested on Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 66 81 67 / 90 30 30 60
Waco 86 67 80 67 / 90 60 30 60
Paris 82 65 80 65 / 90 40 30 50
Denton 83 63 79 65 / 90 30 30 60
McKinney 84 64 80 66 / 90 30 30 60
Dallas 86 67 82 67 / 90 30 30 60
Terrell 85 66 81 66 / 90 40 30 60
Corsicana 87 67 83 69 / 90 50 30 60
Temple 88 66 81 68 / 80 70 40 60
Mineral Wells 85 62 78 63 / 90 50 30 60
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette
AVIATION...Bonnette
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
