Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
061
FXUS64 KFWD 011047
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rainfall is expected across all of North and Central
Texas today. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected
in parts of Central Texas with lower totals in North Texas.
- A Flood Watch is in effect for our southern counties in Central
Texas through this evening. Isolated amounts near 4 inches are
possible in the Watch area.
- Dry and seasonably cooler weather is forecast over the weekend
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Widespread showers and isolated storms are forecast across much
of the area during the next 18 hours, with the heaviest rainfall
expected to occur in our southern Central Texas counties. A Flood
Watch remains in effect for these areas with rainfall totals of
1-3 inches likely.
Several waves of convective activity will develop in response to
strong synoptic scale ascent ahead of a Four Corners upper low.
Lift will be accentuated by the juxtaposition of a right entrance
region of a nearby upper jet streak, along with modest isentropic
ascent near and above 700 mb atop the cooler near-surface layer.
Meager elevated instability is available across Central Texas
which will result in intermittent thunder, but North Texas is
unlikely to observe lightning activity today in the absence of
any noteworthy MUCAPE. Overall, the bulk of the heavy rainfall
will remain south of the forecast area, but areas roughly along
and south of a Killeen to Centerville line will have at least a
small potential for flooding impacts.
With overcast skies across the entire area today, high
temperatures will be held as much as 15-20 degrees below normal
in the 50s and lower 60s. Lingering light precip will taper off
from Central Texas this evening. Gradually clearing skies
overnight into Saturday will set the stage for a dry and pleasant
weekend. We`ll remain within in the cooler post-frontal airmass
to begin the weekend with Saturday`s highs in the 70s and
dewpoints mostly in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Southerly flow will resume on Sunday, but the 60F isodrosotherm
will remain scoured from the CWA until Monday when lagging
moisture return finally resumes. This will mean a continued
tranquil and pleasant couple of days through Monday afternoon
while a warming trend ensues. Highs will return to the 80s and
lower 90s by Tuesday aided by veering westerly flow ahead of
another cold front intrusion. The boundary may serve as our next
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms during the extended
forecast from Tuesday evening into Wednesday, although coverage
looks to be isolated/scattered in the absence of stronger forcing
and perhaps insufficient moisture quality. Extended global
guidance favors a persistent active pattern through the end of
the workweek, with possibly a more favorable setup for
thunderstorms by the Thursday/Friday period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
A swath of light/moderate rain is in the process of overspreading
parts of North Texas and most of Central Texas this morning, with
occasional precip expected at all airports today. The arrival of
drier low-level air within northeasterly flow should continue to
maintain VFR cigs at Metroplex airports through most of the day,
although degradations to MVFR cig/vis remains possible within
pockets of moderate precip. Waco on the other hand is likely to
remain socked in with IFR cigs through most of the day before
improving to VFR later this evening. A small amount of TSRA is
possible across Central Texas this morning, but lightning will
remain absent from D10. Skies will clear overnight into Saturday
morning with VFR and a light north/northwest wind prevailing
through the remainder of the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 50 73 53 / 70 30 0 0
Waco 58 49 72 50 / 100 50 0 0
Paris 62 47 72 47 / 40 20 0 0
Denton 60 46 72 49 / 60 20 0 0
McKinney 61 48 73 51 / 60 30 0 0
Dallas 60 50 74 53 / 70 30 0 0
Terrell 58 49 72 50 / 80 40 0 0
Corsicana 58 51 72 51 / 100 60 0 0
Temple 58 50 71 50 / 100 50 0 0
Mineral Wells 58 46 72 47 / 80 20 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ156-158-162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
