Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
095
FXUS64 KFWD 272333
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
633 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening east
of a Lampasas to DFW to Bonham line. Large hail will be the
primary threat.
- Scattered severe storms are possible across much of the area
again on Tuesday with a primarily a large hail and damaging wind
threat.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
and Friday with some potential for heavy rainfall.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
A percolating cumulus field exists along and east of a dryline and
its associated weakly convergent axis, and has managed to produce
a few failed convective initiation attempts within the past hour.
This boundary may still serve as a focus for isolated convective
development through the early evening if enough low-level
convergent ascent can overcome modest mid-level height rises and
vague subsidence. The parameter space favors splitting supercell
convective mode with very large hail being the primary threat, if
deep convection is able to become established. Poor hodograph
structure may tend to limit the strength and longevity of
supercells as well, with negative impacts to pressure perturbation
dynamics.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
------- This Afternoon and Tonight -------
The forecast concern this afternoon and evening will focus on the
isolated severe thunderstorm potential along and east of the
dryline within a highly unstable but weakly forced environment.
A dryline has now developed near the I-35 corridor and will
continue nudging east through the afternoon. This dryline is
separating a moist airmass to the east from the dry air to the
west. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near mid 70F will
combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to yield strong
instability with MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg.
Despite this favorable thermodynamic setup, large-scale forcing
for ascent remains limited across much of North and Central Texas.
Recent model guidance continues to suggest low confidence in
sustained convective development across North Texas. Therefore,
storm chances through the rest of the afternoon will remain
between 20-30% for areas east of the I-35 corridor and north of
I-20.
If a storm develops, it will be capable of producing large hail,
potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter, along with damaging
wind gusts. Storm motion this afternoon will be relatively slow
with an increased potential for backbuilding isolated cells. If
storms develop, a highly localized flash flooding threat may
materialize this afternoon and evening. Storms may remain
relatively isolated into the early evening before gradually
weakening and shifting to the east.
Later tonight, increasing low-level warm advection, an
approaching shortwave and a cold front along the Red River may
allow for additional thunderstorm development. A limiting factor
that will work against storm development will be the presence of
an EML, restricting updrafts from ascending rapidly. If storms
develop overnight into the early parts of Tuesday morning, the
most likely location would be north of I-20 where surface features
may enhance forcing for ascent. Moderately strong deep-layer
shear, 3000+ J/kg and mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km will
lead to a threat for large hail and damaging winds.
------- Tuesday -------
On Tuesday, confidence has increased in a more active convective
day across the region with some locations experiencing
thunderstorm activity by sunrise. As mentioned above in the
"tonight" period, large hail and damaging winds will be possible
with the morning activity.
By the afternoon, strong diurnal heating is expected to result in
destabilization east of a dryline and south of the cold front.
Additionally, morning thunderstorm activity will likely leave
residual outflow boundaries, providing additional areas for
possible thunderstorm development. Scattered strong to severe
storms are now looking probable across parts of North and Central
Texas, especially along/east of I-35 and north of I-20. The
environment will be strongly sheared, with MLCAPE between
3000-4000 J/kg, leading to an initial threat for large to very
large hail. The stronger low-level shear will be across East
Texas, where the tornado threat will be slightly higher.
The initial individual supercells are expected to grow upscale
into a cluster of storms that will spread east/southeast through
the afternoon and evening. The threat will shift to include a
heightened damaging wind threat as the cluster of storms move
southeast. The threat will linger well into the evening before
storms are expected to exit our region by early Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
The weather pattern will remain unsettled into midweek, through
the most organized severe weather threat should shift east of the
region by Wednesday.
The cold front will be south of our region, however, elevated
moisture along with continued passing shortwaves will keep low
rain chances in place across Central Texas. Rain chances will be
between 20-40%. The severe weather threat will likely remain
southeast of our region as the instability drops off behind the
cold front.
Our next storm system will be approaching on Thursday, spreading
large scale forcing for ascent across all of North and Central
Texas. The elevated front is likely going to be bisecting North
and Central Texas, proving a localized area of ascent through much
of the day. Scattered showers and storms are expected to increase
in coverage through the evening and overnight. Abundant moisture
will lead to an increased threat for flooding going into Friday as
widespread precipitation amounts approach 3". The severe weather
potential will remain low through the late workweek event.
Much cooler weather is expected usher in to finish out this week
with afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s. Overnight, temperatures
will dip into the 40s and 50s this weekend. Make sure to grab a
light jacket is you plan on going out during the early morning
this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Isolated convective attempts have been underway near the TAF
sites the past 60-90 minutes, but have thus far failed to be
sustained in the presence of unfocused ascent. Isolated cells
capable of lightning remain possible mainly across eastern
portions of D10 through the evening hours, and we`ll retain a
brief VCTS to begin the period for eastern Metroplex airports in
case one of these attempts can eventually produce lightning
nearby.
Otherwise, an MVFR stratus intrusion can be expected
at all airports after 09-10z which will linger through much of
Tuesday morning. While some convective activity could develop in
North Texas as early as 15-16z as strong ascent and a boundary sag
into the area, storms at the airports themselves will be much
more likely in the afternoon and evening, and will include a
window of VCTS beyond 20z Tuesday afternoon. This timing will be
refined as better agreement in convective trends can be
identified, and it is likely that heightened Tempo or prevailing
TS mentions will be necessary in subsequent TAFs. Outside of
convective influence, a south wind around 10 kts will prevail
though most of the period, with some higher gusts during the
daytime tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 73 88 62 / 10 10 50 40
Waco 92 74 91 68 / 10 10 20 20
Paris 88 69 81 60 / 20 30 70 70
Denton 92 70 87 59 / 0 10 60 40
McKinney 92 71 85 61 / 10 20 60 50
Dallas 96 73 89 63 / 10 10 50 40
Terrell 91 72 87 63 / 20 30 50 60
Corsicana 92 75 91 68 / 20 20 40 40
Temple 92 73 92 68 / 10 10 10 20
Mineral Wells 94 69 91 59 / 0 10 40 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
