Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
986
FXUS64 KFWD 151836
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
136 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The threat for flash flooding will continue through the
afternoon within the Flood Watch area.
- Hot weather conditions are anticipated by the middle of this
week, with a return to an unsettled weather pattern this
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Rain chances will linger across portions of Central Texas through
Tuesday afternoon, mainly along and south of a Sulphur Springs to
Killeen line. This is due to a broad area of low pressure,
currently centered over northern Mexico, which is expected to
translate towards the northwestern Gulf by Tuesday or Wednesday.
There should be a lull in activity through at least midnight,
before rain chances increase heading into Tuesday morning and
afternoon. While the highest moisture content will reside closer
to the Texas coast, precipitable water values around 2-2.5 inches
across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley will
support brief heavy rainfall with any showers or thunderstorms.
Increased cloud cover should keep highs on Tuesday in the low to
mid 80s. North Texas should remain mostly rain-free through the
forecast period, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. High res
guidance indicates theres a low chance of isolated showers this
evening across portions of the Metroplex, but confidence remains
low.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
Heat and triple-digit heat index values will become the main
weather story across North and Central Texas on Wednesday and
Thursday as the area of low pressure translates along the Texas
Gulf Coast towards Louisiana. Rain-free conditions are expected as
the region remains on the subsident side of the Gulf system. Low
level southerly flow increases with southerly winds around 10-15
MPH, which will keep humid conditions region wide. In combination
with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, heat index values will
approach 100-105 degrees Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Precipitation chances return by late Thursday or Thursday night as
an upper level trough across the Northern Plains sends a cold
front towards the region. As the front interacts with high
moisture content and instability, a few strong thunderstorms with
a primary threat of heavy rainfall and gusty winds cannot be ruled
out. Rain chances may linger into the weekend as weak forcing for
ascent spreads over the region, but there remains uncertainty
among guidance at this time. Otherwise, expect highs in the upper
80s to low 90s with heat index in the upper 90s to around 101
degrees.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026
VFR, with intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings, will prevail
through the evening hours across the TAF sites. Isolated
convection may develop across portions of the Metroplex late this
afternoon and evening, but confidence remains too low to warrant a
mention in the TAF at this time. Additional development across
portions of Central Texas is expected this afternoon, mainly
between 19Z-00Z. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings return late tonight into
early tomorrow morning. Improvement to VFR should return by mid
to late morning tomorrow.
Winds generally near or below 10 knots will remain out of the
north through late this evening, gradually becoming southeast late
tonight into tomorrow.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 90 74 93 / 10 0 10 0
Waco 72 86 72 89 / 40 20 0 0
Paris 69 86 72 89 / 10 10 0 0
Denton 69 89 73 92 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 70 88 73 91 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 73 91 74 94 / 10 0 10 0
Terrell 70 88 72 91 / 10 10 0 0
Corsicana 73 88 73 92 / 40 30 0 0
Temple 72 85 72 89 / 40 40 0 0
Mineral Wells 68 89 71 94 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ135-142>148-
156>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Garcia
LONG TERM....Garcia
AVIATION...Garcia
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
