Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
485
FXUS64 KFWD 231031
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures and some cloud cover can be expected today
behind a cold front.
- Temperatures will warm back into the 80s and lower 90s through
mid week with a continued threat for grass fires across the
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Surface observations show a cold front slowly pushing through
North and Central TX tonight and is roughly along a line from
Comanche to Waxahachie to Paris. To the north of the boundary,
north winds and cooler air have settled in with dewpoints falling
into the lower 40s. This front will continue to slowly push south
overnight, likely becoming stalled out across our Central TX
counties by sunrise. This will set the stage for a fairly large
temperature gradient across the region Monday afternoon. Model
guidance continues to suggest that some moisture will wrap around
a weak area of low pressure with easterly winds maintaining a tap
into this moisture throughout the day. As a result, some lingering
cloud cover is expected mainly along and north of the I-20
corridor. Areas to the north will likely see highs stay in the
upper 60s and lower 70s, while farther south, we`ll see highs in
the mid 70s to perhaps as warm as the mid 80s across our far
southeast counties. This weak surface trough will linger through
Monday night before dissolving headed into early Tuesday morning.
With a large surface high over the eastern CONUS on Tuesday and
amplifying mid level ridging to our west, we`ll see southerly
winds return Tuesday afternoon with temperatures climbing back
into the low to mid 80s. Our northeast counties may still be
dealing with some lingering clouds and will see highs remain in
the 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Ridging should prevail Tuesday night through Thursday across much
of the Southern Plains and this will promote continued warming
through the week. High temperatures should climb through the 80s
on Wednesday and into the low to mid 90s by Thursday afternoon.
With increasing southerly winds and RH values dropping below 30%
again Thursday, we`ll see a continued threat for grass fire
activity across the region. Another strong trough will swing
through the Northern Plains late this week and send a cold front
southward on Friday. This should knock several degrees off of high
temperatures Friday into next weekend. Rain chances still look
limited at this time with no precipitation in the forecast through
Sunday.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
VFR will generally prevail throughout the region, although there
is a bank of MVFR cigs to the southeast and east of Waco at this
hour along and ahead of a weak frontal boundary that has stalled.
To the north of the boundary, north winds will prevail through the
day with intermittent SCT/BKN clouds around 5-6 kft. At Waco,
winds will eventually go northerly later this morning. Passing
clouds will continue through tonight with winds becoming more
easterly then southerly overnight. Other than the low clouds to
the southeast of the major airports, no significant aviation
concerns are expected through the period.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 79 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 72 54 72 56 / 0 10 0 0
Denton 71 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 72 56 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 75 59 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 75 57 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 79 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 80 57 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 72 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
