Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
378
FXUS64 KFWD 182331
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances return tomorrow and continue through early
Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this
period.
- Additional storm chances return late in the weekend into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Another toasty November afternoon is unfolding across the region,
with record-breaking temperatures expected. Optimal conditions for
compressional warming are in place, as winds have veered out of
the west to southwest ahead of a weak cold front in southern
Oklahoma. This is allowing temperatures to soar into the mid to
upper 80s for most locations this afternoon, with a few locations
west of I-35 potentially reaching the 90 degree mark. The record
high temperature at DFW Airport has already been broken as of
12:05 pm, breaking the previous record of 83 degrees set in 1973.
Waco briefly reached 85 degrees at 11:58 am, breaking the previous
record of 84 degrees set in 1905 and 1941.
A weak cold front in southern Oklahoma is expected to slide across
the Red River into North Texas late this afternoon and into the
evening. Surface winds will likely resume a southerly direction
this evening as the front enters the area, which may provide
enough convergence along the front to result in the development of
isolated showers across portions of North Texas. While there will
be an axis of instability oriented from southwest to northeast
across portions of North Texas, showers will either develop north
of the instability or encounter too much mid-level dry air to
amount to anything significant without a more substantial forcing
mechanism. On the off chance a more robust updraft is able to
develop, the main concern would be an isolated lightning strike. A
10% chance for showers and isolated storms has been introduced
with this update to reflect this potential.
Quiet weather is expected for most of the day Wednesday. Isolated
showers will be possible across Central Texas beginning Wednesday
morning, with some of this activity potentially continuing into
the afternoon. Storm chances will begin to increase across western
North and Central Texas late Wednesday afternoon (at the very
earliest) as large-scale ascent moves in from the west with the
arrival of a shortwave trough. However, most of the activity
associated with this shortwave will hold off until Wednesday
evening and will be discussed in the long-term discussion below.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 138 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Wednesday
evening through the overnight hours. Storms will begin across
western North and Central Texas and gradually expand east throughout
the night. Some of this activity (especially the initial activity)
will have the potential to become supercellular, which will pose a
threat for isolated large hail. This will primarily be for areas
along and west of the I-35 corridor. Low-level wind fields aren`t
particularly favorable for a tornado threat, but we`ll have to
monitor the effects of the low-level jet and thunderstorm timing.
There may be a very brief window where an isolated tornado can`t
be ruled out, especially if storms develop earlier in the evening.
Locally heavy rain will also be possible with any of the activity
Wednesday evening/night.
Coverage of showers and storms is expected to increase through
the remainder of Wednesday night as the parent trough of the
leading shortwave approaches from the west. Additional widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Thursday and
move east throughout the day. Given the minimal instability on
Thursday, severe weather is not currently expected. However,
occasional gusty winds can`t be ruled out, especially with any
clusters/lines of storms that are able to develop. On the other
hand, the threat for flooding will increase with this second round
of showers and thunderstorms, but where flooding is anticipated
will largely depend on where the heaviest rain occurs Wednesday
night, as these two rounds will likely compound to create drainage
issues for some locations. Expect rainfall totals between 1-2" on
average across the region, but areas that see multiple rounds of
heavy rain could receive upwards of 4"+ through Friday morning. A
Flood Watch may be needed in the near future, but there is still
some uncertainty in where these higher-end totals could occur.
Therefore, we have held off on issuing one at this time but will
continue to reassess, especially as additional CAM guidance comes
in.
Rain coverage will decline Thursday night as the trough eventually
exits to our north/northeast. A cold front will move through the
region on Friday and will be accompanied by cooler and drier air.
Pleasant temperatures are expected over the weekend with highs in
the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Low rain chances will
return on Saturday, with increasing chances Sunday into early next
week as another low pressure system moves in from the west. Timing
is still a bit uncertain given this is 5-7 days away, but latest
ensemble guidance suggests we may have another potential for heavy
rain. Stay tuned as more details come to light over the next few
days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
A slow moving surface front currently located near the Red River
will sag south towards the I-20 corridor over the next several
hours, likely stalling near the DFW Metroplex late this evening
before retreating to the north overnight. Will include a TEMPO for
VRB04KT from 05Z to 09Z tonight to account for the presence of
the front. South winds will return by daybreak as the front lifts
north in response to an approaching upper low off to the west. The
eastward advancing upper low will generate a round of convection
Wednesday night, but at this time it looks like the onset would be
just beyond the extended DFW TAF period. Will likely need to add
TS in subsequent forecast later tonight. Otherwise, will forego
the mention of MVFR cigs based on such low prob results from
recent guidance, but it does look like a VFR layer of stratocu
will be present for much of the day Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 83 67 74 / 10 10 70 80
Waco 65 81 68 76 / 10 20 50 80
Paris 62 82 65 74 / 10 10 60 70
Denton 60 82 63 73 / 10 20 70 90
McKinney 62 82 64 74 / 10 10 70 80
Dallas 67 83 67 75 / 10 10 70 80
Terrell 64 82 66 76 / 10 10 60 70
Corsicana 67 84 69 79 / 0 20 40 70
Temple 64 83 66 76 / 10 20 50 80
Mineral Wells 62 85 63 76 / 10 20 80 90
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
