Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
661
FXUS64 KFWD 081045
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and mostly rain-free weather returns for the majority of
this week with heat index values near 100 degrees each
afternoon.
- Isolated rain showers are possible in parts of Central and East
Texas this afternoon with coverage of around 10%.
- Chances for scattered showers and storms will resume from late
Thursday into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
Following a weekend of active weather, much more tranquil weather
is in store to begin the workweek as mid-level ridging resumes in
the wake of an ejecting upper low. Stout southerly low-level flow
will contribute to a widespread low stratus intrusion this
morning with cloud cover around through the first half of the day
before gradual clearing takes place heading into the afternoon.
While fairly strong subsidence through the mid and upper levels
will be present, sufficient low-level moisture and daytime
destabilization will allow isolated showers to percolate across
parts of Central and East Texas from late morning into the
afternoon with precipitation coverage of about 10% or less. We`ll
include mentions of rain showers roughly east of I-35 and south
of I-20 through this time period, although most areas are expected
to remain dry today. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will make it a rather muggy afternoon
with heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to around 102.
As the upper ridge axis becomes centered overhead on Tuesday,
precipitation chances will be lower, and none will be mentioned in
the public forecast at this time. Temperatures are likely to be a
few degrees higher than today, with readings mostly in the mid
90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
The midweek period looks seasonably hot and rain-free as a 590 dam
ridge axis remains anchored over the Southern Plains. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon with heat index values
around 100F. By late Thursday, medium-range guidance is suggesting
that a weak frontal boundary will sag towards North Texas
associated with a northern stream trough and low pressure system.
This boundary could serve to initiate convection in Oklahoma
which may attempt to build towards North Texas Thursday night or
Friday. Slightly deeper Central CONUS troughing may act to erode
the ridge axis further as we head into the weekend, and this may
allow the front to sag a bit farther south into North Texas. This
would offer higher convective chances over the weekend, and the
current forecast will indicate PoPs of about 20-30% from late
Saturday into Sunday. Should this scenario materialize,
temperatures would also be knocked down by a few degrees due to
increased cloud cover and the presence of precipitation through
the peak heating hours.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026
Low stratus has remained rather scattered so far this morning, and
cigs will likely be intermittent for the next few hours before
VFR permanently prevails by late morning. As a result, MVFR cigs
between 2-3 kft will be handled with a Tempo group for the first
few hours of the TAF. A southerly breeze of 10-15 kts and gusts of
20-25 kts can be expected through most of the daytime before
speeds decrease slightly this evening. There is slim chance for
rain showers mainly in Central and East Texas this afternoon, and
VCSH may be necessary at Waco in a later update. A brief stratus
intrusion may occur again Tuesday morning, and this will be
addressed at the very end of the valid forecast period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 76 92 77 / 10 0 0 0
Waco 90 74 90 75 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 90 75 90 76 / 10 0 0 0
Denton 92 76 91 77 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 91 76 91 77 / 10 0 0 0
Dallas 92 76 93 78 / 10 0 0 0
Terrell 90 74 92 75 / 10 0 0 0
Corsicana 90 74 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 89 74 91 75 / 20 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 93 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
