Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
842
FXUS64 KFWD 121912
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
112 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist through the middle of
next week.
- Widespread showers and storms are expected late Friday through
late Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
particularly east of the I-35 corridor.
- An isolated, conditional threat for strong to severe storms with
hail and gusty winds may materialize Saturday afternoon, but
there is high uncertainty at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
Spring-like weather will continue as we close out the work week,
with afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in
the 50s tonight. Some high clouds are expected today, but we`ll
see a more significant increase in cloud cover tomorrow as
moisture surges northward ahead of our next rain-producing system.
A lead shortwave trough ahead of its parent system could bring
some isolated showers to areas along the Red River as early as
Friday afternoon. However, the bulk of any rain with this system
will occur beyond the current short term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
A potent upper level trough will sweep eastward through the
Southwest CONUS and northern Mexico through Friday night,
eventually reaching West Texas on Saturday. As large scale ascent
overspreads the region as the system approaches, widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop across
western portions of the state Friday night and will gradually
move east through the forecast area on Saturday. One final round
of showers and storms may develop Saturday afternoon ahead of a
cold front, perhaps just to our west. This round would move
through the forecast area late Saturday afternoon through the
evening hours, with most of the precipitation ending from west to
east late in the evening. There could be a few lingering showers
and storms on the backside of the system as the upper trough makes
its final departure, but all activity will exit to the east by
Sunday morning.
Most of the region will receive beneficial rainfall with this
system, with rainfall totals still expected to be between 0.5 and
1.5 inches on average. Isolated totals in excess of 2" will be
possible, mainly for areas east of the I-35 corridor. We`ll have
to monitor the threat for minor flooding for any areas that see
localized heavy rain, especially in urban and low-lying areas.
Most of the rain that`s expected will be quite welcome though
following our prolonged period of below normal precipitation.
Not much has changed regarding the potential for strong to severe
storms. It still looks like there will be an isolated, conditional
threat Saturday afternoon, but this is contingent upon whether we
destabilize and when the late afternoon/evening storms develop and
move through the region. It`s possible these things will not
align optimally to support much of a strong/severe threat, but
we`ll have to monitor this potential now that we`re starting to
get within range of hi-resolution guidance/CAMs. If a threat for
strong to severe storms does materialize, the main threats would
be hail and gusty winds.
Beyond the weekend system, slightly cooler temperatures are
expected on Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures will quickly rebound into the 70s and low 80s early
next week, with above normal temperatures continuing for the
foreseeable future.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026
VFR conditions will continue with south to southeast winds near 5
to 10 knots through the period. MVFR stratus is expected to
develop across portions of the region Friday morning and could
impact the KACT terminal. Any ceilings are expected to remain
south/east of the Metroplex terminals at this time.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 55 80 60 71 / 0 10 60 100
Waco 56 79 61 72 / 0 0 30 100
Paris 50 76 59 66 / 10 20 50 100
Denton 51 79 58 70 / 0 20 70 100
McKinney 52 79 60 69 / 0 20 60 100
Dallas 57 80 62 71 / 0 10 60 100
Terrell 52 79 60 70 / 0 10 40 100
Corsicana 57 82 62 73 / 0 10 30 100
Temple 55 79 60 74 / 0 0 30 100
Mineral Wells 52 82 58 74 / 0 10 80 100
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Barnes
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
