Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
821
FXUS64 KFWD 210625
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected across North and Central
Texas throughout the day on Thursday.
- Generally unsettled weather will continue through the weekend
into next week with several bouts of showers and thunderstorms
across the region. The severe weather threat is low at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
An area of stratiform precip with embedded isolated thunderstorms
will slowly migrate out of the Hill Country into portions of our
forecast area south of the I-20 corridor through the overnight
hours. With the primary upper-level disturbance still lagging to
the west over the Mexican Plateau, this complex will generally
weaken with time as it approaches the I-35 corridor. The
widespread cloud cover will also help moderate low temperatures
tonight with lows in the 60s.
By tomorrow morning, the primary vort max will move off the
Mexican Plateau into Texas resulting in additional shower and
thunderstorm development across the central part of the state.
Over the course of the day, this activity will slowly drift
east/northeastward with greatest thunderstorm coverage during the
afternoon hours likely around and north of the DFW Metroplex.
Though the lack of shear will result in a low severe weather
threat, there may be enough instability for a couple strong to
marginally severe storms with hail and/or strong winds (< 5%
chance). Some of these storms may also contain torrential rain,
but storm motions may be enough to mitigate higher flooding
concerns. Nonetheless, there will still be a low flash flooding
threat, especially in any urban areas. By Thursday evening, storms
should continue to move into the Ark-La-Tex region with most
beginning to dry out after sunset.
Thursday night will be generally cloudy with a stray shower or
thunderstorm possible (10-20% chance) east of the I-35 corridor.
Due to the rainfall that will have fallen during the day on
Thursday, increasing boundary layer moisture from low-level flow
trajectories off the Gulf, and light winds overnight, areas of fog
appear possible where clouds are able to clear. This potential
is greatest west of I-35 and south of I-20 at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
The prevailing weather pattern this weekend into next week will
continue to favor unsettled weather across the region. Longwave
troughing will persist across the western CONUS as a series of
subtle shortwave disturbances traverse across North Mexico into
the South Great Plains. The timing, frequency, and exact strength
of these disturbances remain uncertain. However, due to the rich
boundary layer moisture and coincident instability of the airmass
that will reside over North and Central Texas during this time
frame, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on a near
daily basis. Just like with the storms Thursday, a low but non-
zero severe weather threat will exist purely due to the
instability of the airmass in place. Weak shear will inhibit more
organized thunderstorm development, but the instability will be
sufficient for one or two storms to become strong/marginally
severe. Details on storm coverage, timing and intensity will
become more clear in the 24-48 hour time frame, so check back
each day for forecast updates regarding storm potential this
weekend into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
While there is confidence that MVFR cigs will return to all TAF
sites tonight, there is high uncertainty as to when. It will be
difficult to monitor due to high cloud cover across the region, so
will watch surface obs and may need to amend to include earlier
MVFR onset than originally thought. Storm timing is also somewhat
uncertain tomorrow. Have used VCSH to highlight times where
SHRA/TSRA are possible, and used TEMPO/FM groups to bring
attention to the times of greatest risk. Confidence will increase
by tomorrow morning once these storms develop to the west and move
towards the I-35 corridor. Surface winds will generally remain
light (under 10 knots) this TAF period but highly variable in
direction. Have gone with approximate mean flow for prevailing
flow but anticipate erratic wind directions and speeds as
thunderstorms develop and move through TAF sites, especially
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 65 84 67 / 70 60 10 60
Waco 78 66 84 68 / 50 30 30 40
Paris 77 65 81 64 / 40 80 10 50
Denton 76 63 83 65 / 80 50 10 60
McKinney 78 65 84 66 / 80 70 10 50
Dallas 79 66 84 68 / 70 60 10 50
Terrell 79 65 83 66 / 70 70 30 40
Corsicana 80 66 84 70 / 60 50 30 30
Temple 77 65 84 69 / 40 30 30 30
Mineral Wells 74 62 86 64 / 70 20 10 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
