Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
381
FXUS64 KFWD 072332
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
532 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of light rain and a few thunderstorms will continue across
parts of North and Central Texas through late this evening.
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will arrive late Tuesday
with an upper low and the next cold front. Some severe storms
will again be possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 516 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
Areas of light to moderate rain will continue across parts of
North and Central Texas beneath a broad area of ascent at least
for another few hours before stronger height rises spread into the
Southern Plains. We should see a gradual shift eastward in the
overall precipitation with a downtrend in intensity. Mostly cloudy
skies will persist for much of the night with northwesterly winds
decreasing in speed over the next few hours. While the surface
front has pushed well south of our area, the 850 mb front bisects
the region and will continue to serve as a focus for weak ascent
through the overnight hours. Both the surface front and the 850 mb
frontal zone will begin to lift northward during the day Sunday
with intermittent cloud cover expected to continue. Weak warm
advection and ample moisture may result in a few scattered showers
late tomorrow into tomorrow night across parts of North and
Central TX. We`ll keep PoPs at 20-30% at this time. Other than
some tweaks to PoPs/temps through this evening and overnight, no
significant changes are needed through the short term.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
The cold front will continue pushing through East and Central
Texas this afternoon, with a broken area of showers and elevated
thunderstorms lingering in its wake. This post-frontal activity
appears tied less to the surface boundary itself and more to a
lingering 850 mb front draped over the region, which should remain
sufficient to support scattered convection for several more
hours. The severe threat has quickly diminished as the cool air
behind the front continues to deepen and undercut updrafts. The
only area still worth watching for potential strong storm
development will be in our far southeastern counties, where storms
may remain surface-based just a bit longer before becoming fully
elevated. This would keep a brief window open for a strong or
marginally severe thunderstorm capable of producing hail and gusty
winds, mainly near Leon, Robertson, and Milam Counties.
Otherwise, expect a gradual weakening trend this afternoon as
convection shifts farther east and the shortwave trough continues
to pull away. Showers and thunderstorms should exit the forecast
area this evening, followed by steadily improving conditions
overnight. In the wake of today`s front, a cooler and quieter
airmass will settle in across the region tonight into Sunday.
Sunday should be a much less complicated forecast than the past 48
hours. Modest surface ridging and a drier post-frontal airmass
will support more pleasant conditions areawide, with afternoon
temperatures generally topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
The next round of active weather will arrive early next week as
the closed upper low currently over Baja California ejects east-
northeast into northern Mexico and West Texas. Before the main
system arrives, a lead perturbation along with strengthening warm
advection may bring a low chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. The more meaningful period
of convection will be Tuesday into Wednesday. By then, lee
cyclogenesis over the High Plains and a sharpening dryline/Pacific
front will focus thunderstorm development to our west, with
storms likely organizing and spreading into North and Central
Texas Tuesday afternoon and night as stronger height falls and a
belt of enhanced southwesterly flow overspread the region. This
setup continues to support the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms, with damaging winds appearing the most probable
hazard if convection evolves into a line or broken QLCS. Large
hail and a low-end tornado threat cannot be ruled out, but those
details will depend on how much instability can develop ahead of
the line and whether any discrete or semi-discrete storms can be
maintained before upscale growth takes over.
Rainfall and renewed flood concerns remain a meaningful part of
the midweek forecast, though there remains some spread in both
timing and placement of the heaviest totals. A widespread soaking
rain appears increasingly plausible. Convective mode will matter
quite a bit: a progressive line would tend to cap totals, while
any training segments or repeated development could quickly push
localized amounts higher. By Wednesday, the upper trough and
attendant cold front should be moving through or east of the area,
with lingering showers and storms exiting from west to east late
afternoon or evening. Quieter weather then returns Thursday with
cooler, drier air settling in behind the system and then a quick
warm up heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026
Areas of light rain will continue for another few hours across the
region with intermittent IFR/MVFR cigs. These lower cigs have
generally been tied to areas of rain/drizzle and it`s a little
uncertain how long they`ll linger. For now, we`ve maintained a
TEMPO through 03Z, but there is at least some low potential for
MVFR cigs to persist into early Sunday morning. Otherwise,
northwest winds around 10 kt will continue overnight with
southerly winds returning late in the day Sunday. VFR should
prevail for much of the period outside of these low clouds
tonight.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not needed at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 73 60 83 / 50 0 20 10
Waco 51 72 59 81 / 50 10 20 20
Paris 45 73 56 78 / 60 0 20 50
Denton 41 72 55 82 / 40 0 20 10
McKinney 45 72 58 81 / 50 0 20 20
Dallas 49 74 59 81 / 50 0 20 20
Terrell 48 73 58 81 / 60 0 30 30
Corsicana 53 74 62 83 / 60 10 20 30
Temple 51 71 60 82 / 60 10 20 20
Mineral Wells 42 74 56 85 / 20 0 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
