Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
619
FXUS64 KFWD 161108
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
508 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Following a strong cold frontal passage this morning, elevated
fire weather conditions are forecast west of I-35 today with
gusty northwest winds and very low humidity.
- A few sprinkles or snow flurries could be observed in parts of
North Texas on Saturday.
- Rain chances of 20-30% return to much of the area on Wednesday
and Thursday along with more mild temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 504 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
A brief Wind Advisory has been issued for western North Texas
which is in effect from 6 AM to noon today. This is based on
upstream wind speed observations which have consistently been
exceeding previous model guidance, as well as more recent high-res
output which has begun catching up to these trends. Gusts to
around 40 mph can be expected west of I-35 and north of I-20 this
morning along and just behind the leading edge of our strong cold
front set to arrive during the next few hours. This boundary is
currently racing southward through Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle
at nearly 45 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions remain the
primary concern following the frontal passage, as RH values dip
into the teens this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
An Arctic cold front is making haste through the Central and
Southern Plains early this morning and will sweep through North
and Central Texas during the daytime. This will be a dry frontal
passage with no initial rain chances associated with it, as the
prefrontal warm sector is already moisture-starved. The boundary`s
passage will be accompanied by an abrupt northwest wind shift,
with gusts of 30-40 mph possible across western portions of the
CWA through midday. While a couple sites could briefly touch Wind
Advisory criteria, these occurrences presently appear too marginal
and scant to warrant any headlines, but trends will be monitored
the rest of the morning in case a small product is needed for our
western zones. The gusty winds and the arrival of much drier post-
frontal air will result in an elevated grass fire threat, and
these conditions will be worse west of I-35 where RH values should
dip to 10-20% this afternoon while highs reach the mid/upper 50s.
A Grass Fire Danger Statement has been issued for these areas. A
cold night will follow with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s, with
urban areas likely being the only locations to hold above
freezing.
On Saturday morning, the trailing mid-level trough axis will
pivot into the Southern plains, with a coincident band of
frontogenesis and 6C mid-level lapse rates materializing across
southern Oklahoma and North Texas. This strong ascent should
result in increased mid cloud cover, and could manage to squeeze
out some virga or even a few sprinkles/flurries north of I-20. Any
precip would be falling from a cloud deck at 8-10 kft AGL, and
the likelihood of any hydrometeors to survive a journey to the
surface is quite low given dewpoint depressions of nearly 30C in
the subcloud airmass. We`ll introduce a brief mention of sprinkles
and flurries into the public forecast for Saturday morning and
early afternoon, just in case a couple sightings occur somewhere
in North Texas. Temperatures should be in the mid 30s to lower 40s
during this time frame, and with a fair amount of cloud cover
present through the day, highs may struggle to climb above 40 in
some parts of North Texas. Saturday night is shaping up to be one
of the coldest nights of the season so far with widespread lows in
the 20s or even upper teens. This will be due to optimal
radiational cooling as the mid cloud deck exits to the east, while
surface dewpoints fall to the teens and single digits with
lessening wind speeds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026
Low-level flow will return to southerly on Sunday, prompting a
modest warmup for the second half of the weekend. After a
chilly Saturday, highs should rebound into the upper 50s and
lower 60s on Sunday afternoon beneath mostly clear skies. Friday`s
cold front will have scoured all meaningful moisture content well
into the Gulf, so despite the renewed southerly fetch, moisture
return will be delayed into the workweek. Another weaker frontal
zone may sag into the area on Monday accompanied by additional
mid/high cloud cover, and this may knock daytime highs back into
the 50s. Stronger southerly return flow and an overrunning regime
will become established late Tuesday into Wednesday, and this
will result in the next chances for measurable rainfall within the
CWA. The operational GFS remains a fast outlier with attempting to
generate widespread QPF already on Tuesday, and the official
forecast will side with the ensemble majority with rain chances
holding off until the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Temperatures
should hover near or slightly above normal through the second
half of the workweek with highs in the 50s/60s and lows mostly in
the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
A strong cold front is making rapid southward progress into North
Texas as of 11z, and this boundary will abruptly shift winds from
southerly to northwesterly between 13-14z at Metroplex airports
around 16z at Waco. Initial gusts with the boundary`s passage
could be as high as 35 kts, but should be lower through the
remainder of the daytime at 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts.
Speeds will lessen after sunset this evening with mostly clear
skies prevailing. An expanding mid cloud deck at 9-10 kft will
overspread North Texas airports Saturday morning, and VFR cigs
have been introduced for the extended DFW TAF.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 34 46 26 / 0 0 10 0
Waco 62 29 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 57 30 43 20 / 0 0 10 0
Denton 58 28 45 20 / 0 0 10 0
McKinney 59 29 45 22 / 0 0 10 0
Dallas 59 33 46 26 / 0 0 10 0
Terrell 59 30 45 22 / 0 0 10 0
Corsicana 62 31 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 64 32 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 58 28 46 22 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ091-100>102-115>117-
129>132-141.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
