Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas

FXUS64 KFWD 110025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
725 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

...New Short Term...


Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 remains in effect for areas along
and south of I-20 through 10 pm. Majority of the activity this
afternoon and evening has been along/east of I-35 across Central
Texas with DFW missing out on any convection for the most part.
Isolated activity cannot be entirely ruled out across North Texas
this evening, but additional development has become increasingly
less likely. Across Central Texas, however, multiple clusters
continue their southeastward trajectory, posing a severe threat
with multiple reports of damaging winds (to near 70 mph) and
large hail (up to 2.5") received. This threat will continue into
the evening hours with the bulk of the activity diminishing and
pushing outside of the forecast area around 10-11 pm. The
discussion below remains on track for the rest of the short term
period, with low (20%) storm chances across North Texas late
Sunday afternoon and night.


Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tomorrow/

An overnight MCS moved across the Central Plains last night with
the leading edge of its cold pool now draped across North Texas.
Deep convection still continues, but it has generally remained
across East Texas outside of our forecast area this morning. The
leading edge of the boundary is now situated from about Canton to
D/FW to Decatur to Mineral Wells. There is a sharp (for June)
temperature gradient along the boundary as well as a notable wind
shift...both of which should help with convective initiation over
the next several hours. Latest AMDAR/aircraft soundings out of
Dallas-Love Field indicate the morning stable layer is mostly
eroded, however there remains a modest amount of (waning) mixed
layer inhibition and mid-level subsidence at this time. Ahead of
the boundary, surface temperatures have climbed into the mid 90s
with a few more hours of heating to go. This heating will only
deepen the mixing, and point toward an increased severe threat
once storms are able to develop. Over the past hour or so, a
shallow cumulus field has developed along the stalled boundary.
There has been little to no vertical development with the Cu thus
far, but we do expect that to change in the coming hours as a weak
shortwave trough moves in from the west and subsidence on the back
side of the MCS loosens its grip.

We`re expecting the first storms to develop along the stalled
boundary as early as 2 PM with more expansive coverage through
the afternoon into the evening. MLCAPE values are forecast to
range between 2000-3500 J/kg with mid-level lapse rates between
8-9 deg C/km. Although the deep-layer shear is weak, there is
still plenty of instability and near liner 0-6 km hodographs to
support localized supercells, particularly at the onset of the
event. The storms will develop over a deeply mixed boundary layer
(about 3 km high) with a layer of mid-level dry air. Both of these
features will promote rapid downdraft acceleration, increasing
the threat of damaging wind gusts. Isolated hail up to 2-3" will
be possible this afternoon with any supercells and damaging wind
gusts upwards of 70 mph will be possible under just about any
storm this afternoon.

After the first storms develop, additional storms will develop
along outflow boundaries and create a rather messy convective
mode later in the day. Strong cold-pools will be the name of the
game, which favors upscale growth after just a couple hours of
convective initiation. Expect broken linear segments to develop
by late this afternoon into the evening roughly along/east of I-35
and south of I-20. The severe main threat will switch to damaging
wind gusts as the complex moves off to the east-southeast through
the evening, eventually exiting into East/Southeast Texas
tonight. Once the storms grow upscale, the flash flood threat will
ramp up as well. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be
possible, especially if any cold pools align from NW to SE and
promote training storms.

After the storms clear out this evening, south flow is expected
with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. Tomorrow is shaping up
to be another hot day with highs climbing into the upper 90s to
low 100s. A weak cold front is expected to sag into North Texas
in the afternoon. Similar to today, the front may serve as a
focused source of ascent for thunderstorm development. The main
difference between tomorrow and today is that there will be modest
mid-level ridging over the region that may squash any convective
attempts from materializing. For now, we have capped PoPs at 20%,
but there will be a conditional threat of severe weather if storms
are able to develop.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/

The discussion below is still largely on track, but it is worth
noting that the MOS guidance continues to undercut the NBM in
regard to high temperature almost each day this week. Given the
slight weakness of the mid-level ridge over the Southern Plains,
we have nudged the high temperatures down a degree or two each
day. The weaker ridge will also allow for a weak front to hover
near North Texas for much of the week with daily rain/storm
chances until late in the week and next weekend when the apex of
the mid-level high starts to shift over Texas.


Previous Discussion:
/Next Week/

Fortunately, the front will bring a brief reprieve from the heat
for much of North Texas on Monday, with afternoon temperatures
remaining in the mid 80s to low 90s. Further south across Central
Texas, a hot afternoon in the mid to upper 90s is expected, but
most locations will be spared from triple digit temperatures.
Storm chances will return Monday evening as a shortwave trough
passes over North Texas during peak heating, potentially resulting
in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms near the
stalled frontal boundary. Models offer a wide variety of solutions
Monday evening, which is likely attributed to significant
disagreement in available moisture. However, if storms are able to
develop, they would likely be severe, especially for areas south
of I-20 where hot temperatures will result in high instability.

The rest of the week will feature a warming trend, with widespread
triple digit temperatures expected Wednesday and beyond. A Heat
Advisory may be needed by late in the week, as heat index values
will likely exceed 105 degrees across portions of the area both
Thursday and Friday. A sub-tropical ridge over Mexico will keep
rain chances near zero for most of the area. The main exception
will be across eastern North Texas where a couple passing
shortwave troughs may bring some low chances for showers and
storms mid to late next week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 705 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/
/00Z TAFs/

D10.. Thunderstorms are ongoing primarily to the south of D10 as
of this hour with the earlier, main outflow boundary stalled west
of the metroplex and additional smaller outflows moving through
the metroplex currently. Although on-site impacts cannot be
entirely ruled out, the TEMPO for TSRA has been removed across all
of the D10 sites with this issuance as convection becomes less
likely; however, conditions will continue to be closely monitored
with updates issued as necessary. VCTS has been maintained
through 02Z, after which south flow prevails around 8-11 kts. A
weak front will move into North Texas Sunday, which may act as a
focus for thunderstorm development late tomorrow afternoon and
night. Have opted not to include any VCTS at the end of the period
for DFW`s TAF given the uncertainty and will defer to later TAF

Waco..Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing near and
north of ACT currently with additional storms moving in from the
west. Expect impacts on-site through ~02Z with VCTS carried
through 03Z. MVFR stratus will then invade portions of Central and
East Texas early tomorrow morning but should remain south and
east of ACT. Otherwise, expect south flow around 10-15 kts.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  99  73  92  74 /  50  10  20  20  20
Waco                71  99  73  96  73 /  70   5  10  10  10
Paris               68  93  69  85  68 /  50   5  10  40  50
Denton              68  99  69  91  70 /  40   5  20  20  30
McKinney            70  96  71  88  71 /  50   5  20  30  30
Dallas              72 100  73  93  74 /  60  10  20  20  20
Terrell             70  96  72  91  72 /  60  10  20  20  20
Corsicana           72  97  75  94  75 /  70   5  20  10  10
Temple              71  99  73  97  72 /  60   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       68 102  70  94  71 /  30  10  20  20  20




NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion