Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
651
FXUS64 KFWD 111850
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above-normal temperatures expected today and Friday. Areas of
fog will be possible across the Brazos Valley Friday morning.
- A strong cold front will bring colder temperatures on Sunday
with highs in the 40s and 50s.
- Abnormally warm temperatures will return to the region by the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
South-southwesterly low-level flow will lead to a couple of days
of above-average temperatures in the short-term forecast period.
Expect high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s across most of
North and Central Texas both today and Friday. Boundary-layer
moisture will quickly increase early Friday across parts of
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley ahead of a weak cold front
that is expected to stall near the Highway 84 corridor by Friday
evening. Patchy fog will be possible Friday morning in our
southeastern zones. Little change but a light northerly wind shift
is expected with this frontal passage.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
Low clouds will increase in coverage across Central Texas into
Friday night with light precipitation possible near and south of
the aforementioned boundary, primarily in our Brazos Valley
Counties, Saturday into Sunday. A stronger push of cold and dry
air will arrive Saturday night dropping temperatures into the mid
20s along the Red River by early Sunday morning. Temperatures will
struggle to escape the 40s along and north of the I-20 corridor on
Sunday with low 50s likely down in Central Texas. Widespread
freezing temperatures are expected Sunday night with another
chilly day of widespread 50s likely on Monday. Increasing south-
southwesterly gradient flow ahead of our next compact upper trough
will draw greater quality moisture northward over the region and
tick temperatures back to above-average by Tuesday. Lift
associated with this passing synoptic feature may lead to the
development of isolated to scattered showers, primarily east of
I-35, Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if this upper-level
trough/low passes south of our region into northern Mexico (as
highlighted by the ECMWF), then rain chances will likely remain
near zero. Nonetheless, a prolonged period of southerly low-level
flow will lead to an extended stretch of above-normal temperatures
with afternoon highs approaching/exceeding 70 degrees by
Wednesday of next week. There is a ~40% chance that afternoon
highs approach 80 degrees in Central Texas by next weekend, which
would place temperatures near 20 degrees above average for this
time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025
VFR conditions and southerly surface winds generally below 15 kts
will prevail through much of the TAF period for all North and
Central Texas terminals. Low stratus and/or areas of fog may
develop across the Brazos Valley early Friday morning, but any
development should stay southeast of KACT (less than 15% chance of
terminal impacts). A weak front will shift into the Metroplex near
17Z Friday turning winds back out of the north at 5-10 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 45 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 65 44 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 61 42 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 66 41 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 64 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 65 46 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 64 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 47 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 67 43 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 71 42 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Langfeld
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
