Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
893
FXUS64 KFWD 232357
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
557 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms will increase in coverage and intensity
through the overnight hours. Heavy rainfall will be the main
threat along with frequent cloud to ground lightning.
- An increased potential for severe weather may materialize south
of I-20 and along/east of I-35 Monday afternoon into early
Monday evening. All severe weather hazards, including a couple
tornadoes, will be possible.
- A return to cool and dry conditions is expected by the middle of
the week through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and
60s. Rain chances return next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms increasing
in coverage mainly off to the west and northwest. This is in
response to increasing low and mid level warm moist advection. A
recent ACARS sounding from DAL shows this warm advection profile
through about 550 mb with elevated instability around 250 J/kg.
This will continue to support scattered evening showers and storms
mainly to the northwest of the Metroplex. There will likely be a
brief lull in the activity as this initial wave of ascent spreads
off to the north through late evening, but as strong height falls
overspread the region tonight, coverage of showers and storms will
increase again across the northern half of the CWA. While there
will continue to be modest elevated instability, the main threat
will be for heavy rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding
through early Monday morning. For the rest of tonight, PoPs were
adjusted to reflect latest radar trends and short term guidance.
No other changes are needed at this time.
Dunn
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
An upper-level low currently situated near the Four Corners region
will shift northeast toward the Central Plains later tonight.
Multiple embedded shortwaves on the southern periphery of this low
will traverse over the Southern Plains later this evening through
Monday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to North and
Central Texas. Strong low/mid-level moisture return is already
occurring ahead of this system across parts of West Texas and the
Texas Panhandle. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in
coverage this afternoon shifting east toward our Big Country
counties along/west of Highway 281 by the 3-4PM timeframe.
Sufficient shear, mid-level lapse rates near 7 degreeC/km, and
elevated instability on the order of ~750-1250 J/kg will support
an isolated large hail threat across our western counties into the
evening hours.
As synoptic-scale ascent expands over our region, expect shower
and thunderstorm coverage to increase across all of North Texas
after midnight tonight and into Monday morning. Unseasonably high
PWATs and the potential for training thunderstorms will lead to an
isolated flash flooding threat through Monday morning along and
north of the I-20 corridor. Expect a widespread 1-3" of rain
across North Texas with a 10% chance for totals greater than 4"
through midday Monday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this
area tonight through 3PM Monday afternoon. Note that all of the
overnight/morning activity will remain elevated, thus the severe
threat will remain very low. However, a few more robust cores
capable of producing small hail will remain possible.
A surface low will develop along the Oklahoma/Kansas border by
late Monday morning dragging an attendant dryline/Pacific front
east across our forecast area during the day. This boundary will
provide focus for a disorganized line of thunderstorms that will
shift toward East Texas during the afternoon hours. Ahead of these
storms, a surface warm front will quickly surge northward into
parts of Central and East Texas. Rich, boundary-layer moisture and
a plume of 1250-1750 J/kg SBCAPE will move over much of East-
Central and East Texas by the early afternoon hours behind this
boundary. Strong deep-layer and low-level wind shear will overlap
the uncapped warm sector for several hours tomorrow afternoon
promoting a severe weather threat for locations generally south of
I-20 and along/east of I-35 from 1-6PM Monday. Storm mode at this
time remains a bit uncertain, but confidence is increasing in a
few supercell thunderstorms developing along the tail-end of the
line of storms and ahead of the line within the open warm sector.
All storm hazards will be possible in this scenario, including the
potential for a couple tornadoes. If storm mode remains messier
and/or cloud cover inhibits the destabilization of the atmosphere
tomorrow afternoon, then the overall severe weather threat will
remain lower.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
All thunderstorm activity should exit into East Texas by 6-7PM
Monday evening as a much drier airmass ushers in over the region.
This system`s actual cold front will arrive early Tuesday keeping
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday afternoon. A
stronger push of cold air (dry frontal passage) will enter North
and Central Texas Tuesday evening-Tuesday night. This will allow
for cooler temperatures by the middle of the week, including the
Thanksgiving Holiday. Expect overnight lows in the 30s-40s and
afternoon highs in the 50s-low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Rain
chances may trend higher again next weekend as moisture increases
ahead of the next forecasted upper-level system.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the overnight
hours as cloud ceilings lower and rain/storm chances increase.
We`ll continue to see an east-southeast wind around 10 kt through
the overnight. MVFR cigs should develop and spread northeast into
the area by midnight with VCTS at 6Z. Prevailing -TSRA is expected
in the 8-9Z timeframe with the best timing for showers/storms
between 10-12Z. This activity will diminish in intensity through
the mid morning hours with IFR cigs continuing into the early
afternoon. Conditions will improve late in the day as drier
westerly winds move into North Texas around sunset.
Dunn
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 71 51 70 / 100 90 10 0
Waco 61 72 49 71 / 50 90 10 0
Paris 54 64 50 67 / 90 100 20 0
Denton 54 71 45 69 / 100 90 10 0
McKinney 56 68 49 69 / 100 90 10 0
Dallas 58 71 52 70 / 100 90 10 0
Terrell 57 69 50 70 / 80 90 20 0
Corsicana 61 73 53 72 / 60 90 40 0
Temple 61 76 49 74 / 40 80 20 0
Mineral Wells 55 76 46 74 / 100 90 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>120-123-129.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Langfeld
LONG TERM....Langfeld
AVIATION...Dunn
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
