Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
867
FXUS64 KFWD 120630
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
130 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a cool Thursday, a warm-up will take place Friday and
Saturday.
- A strong cold front will arrive on Sunday, bringing
unseasonably cold weather to start next week.
- A quick warm-up will take place by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Strong winds behind yesterday`s cold front have partially
decoupled and dropped below Wind Advisory criteria, allowing the
advisory to be expired on schedule at 10 PM. A steady north breeze
will persist through daybreak before the post-frontal surface
ridge eases in and winds become light and variable later this
morning. Dry air, clear skies and a weakening wind field will drop
temperatures into the 30s and 40s by daybreak, making for a
seasonably cold start to the day.
A shift to south winds can then be expected by this afternoon as
the ridge slides southeast into the Texas and Louisiana Coastal
Plain. South winds of 5 to 10 MPH are expected late afternoon
through tonight. Despite the light return flow, moisture return
will be negligible, resulting in another cool night under clear
skies. Though not as cool as this morning, temperatures tonight
into Thursday morning will still drop into the lower and middle
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Starting Friday, ridging aloft will build in from the west, while
the surface pressure gradient narrows in response to a shortwave
translating the northern CONUS and subsequent lee-side surface
troughing. The resulting uptick in warm air advection and
strengthening high pressure aloft will lead to a warming trend,
with Friday highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s, followed by
Saturday highs ranging from the upper 70s in the east to near 90
west of Highway 281.
The upper level pattern will amplify Saturday night and Sunday as
an upper trough deepens dramatically across the eastern half of
the CONUS and a 500mb ridge intensifies along the West Coast. This
amplification process will send a strong cold front surging south
through the Plains Saturday night and through North and Central
Texas on Sunday. The National Blended Model has trended cooler the
past few runs for Sunday high temperatures due to a slightly
earlier arrival of the cold front in each consecutive run, and it
wouldn`t be surprising if this trend continues.
Whatever the Sunday highs end up being (likely 70s in the
morning), temperatures will fall fast Sunday night, with Monday
morning lows in the 30s expected area-wide (counties along the Red
River will likely see a light freeze). Wind chills will be in the
20s for the Monday morning commute, less than ideal for those on
Spring Break, followed by highs in the 40s and 50s. Fortunately,
the West Coast ridge will expand eastward starting Monday night,
generating a quick warm-up through the midweek period of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
North winds behind yesterday`s cold front will become light south
by 20Z Thursday afternoon, with a brief period of light east or
light and variable winds in between (17-20Z). South winds of 5 to
10 kt will continue through Thursday night, with otherwise clear
skies, VFR and overall quiet aviation weather expected.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 47 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 64 44 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 63 42 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 64 43 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 63 45 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 66 47 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 64 43 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 66 45 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 65 42 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 66 43 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
