Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
277
FXUS64 KFWD 112327
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
527 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will persist through the middle of
next week.
- Widespread showers and storms are expected late Friday through
late Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
particularly east of the I-35 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail through the short term in
the wake of Tuesday`s cold front. North winds will continue
today, with slightly cooler temperatures (but still above average)
in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Following another cooler night with
lows in the 40s, the return of southerly winds will result in
warmer temperatures on Thursday, with afternoon highs returning to
the 70s areawide. There will continue to be a slightly elevated
threat for grassfires for areas west of I-35 this afternoon due to
low humidity and above normal temperatures. Fortunately, wind
speeds will be relatively light, which will mitigate fire spread
should any fires develop. Increasing humidity tomorrow will keep
any fire weather concerns to a minimum.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Our next rain-producing system will be approaching the region
Thursday night into Friday as a cut-off low moves eastward through
the Southwest CONUS and northern Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms
may develop as early as Friday afternoon near the Red River.
However, the greatest chances for showers and storms will hold
off until Friday night and Saturday when widespread showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop and gradually move
east across the region as the upper low moves overhead. This will
make for a rather rainy Valentine`s Day, so ensure you`re
monitoring the weather, and plan for disruptions to any outdoor
plans.
Nearly the entire region is expected to receive beneficial
rainfall with this system, with average rainfall totals ranging
between 1/2" and 2". The highest rainfall totals are generally
expected to be east of the I-35 corridor where moisture will be
the most plentiful. However, there could be the potential for
multiple rounds of showers and storms along the Red River, which
would result in higher totals for these areas as well. Reasonable
high-end amounts are currently expected to be upwards of 2.5-3".
Drought conditions have redeveloped as a result of the
precipitation deficit across the region, which should allow for
some mitigation of any flooding concerns. However, the extent of
our flood threat will likely depend more on how quickly any
heavier rain occurs. With the potential for embedded, locally
heavy rainfall, we`ll have to monitor the potential for flooding,
especially within any urban areas.
There still appears to be an isolated potential for severe
weather, but this threat is rather conditional at this time.
Meager instability will keep the threat low overall, but it`s
possible any surface forcing mechanisms may not align with
afternoon instability, as the cold front associated with this
system isn`t expected to arrive until Saturday night. This
introduces uncertainty as to how intense these storms will be, but
as it currently stands, isolated strong to marginally severe
storms can`t be ruled out. This threat would be highest across
Central Texas but could extend towards the Red River depending on
how far north an axis of instability is able to develop.
The aforementioned cold front will bring an end to most of the
showers and storms Saturday evening/night, though a few showers or
storms may linger through Sunday morning until the upper low
eventually departs to our east. Slightly cooler weather is
expected on Sunday with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s.
However, the cool-down will be short-lived, as highs will return
to the 70s and 80s early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026
Weak north flow at 5-10 kts will become near calm overnight. When
winds return around sunrise tomorrow, they will generally be out
of the SE (130-160) at ~5 kts. Just beyond the TAF period (After
06Z tomorrow night), patchy fog may develop in portions of E and
SE TX, but should remain away from TAF sites. As such, expect VFR
conditions to prevail for the duration of this forecast period at
all TAF sites.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 46 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 70 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
Paris 67 44 70 50 / 0 0 0 10
Denton 66 40 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 66 42 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 68 47 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 68 44 74 53 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 71 48 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
Temple 72 46 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 68 42 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM....Barnes
AVIATION...Darrah
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
