Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
002
FXUS64 KFWD 150625
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
125 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably hot temperatures will continue for the next several
days with highs reaching or exceeding 100 degrees each afternoon.
- Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days, and low
humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity through
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Hot and dry weather will prevail this weekend as mid-level
ridging remains in control. As 500mb heights approach 600dam, high
temperatures will easily climb to near or above the century mark
both today and tomorrow. While dewpoints will mix out fairly
aggressively, especially across the Big Country, the hot
temperatures will still be able to combine with low/mid 60s
dewpoints to yield heat index values near or above 105. Because
of this, a Heat Advisory has been issued for roughly the eastern
2/3rds of the CWA again this afternoon. Humidity will be lower on
Sunday which may cause heat index values to actually remain below
105 for much of the area. However, the drier air will heat up
readily with daytime insolation as well as veering southwesterly
winds, and ambient temperatures may exceed 103 for much of the
area. Therefore, a continuation of a Heat Advisory may be
necessary for meeting temperature criteria of 103 as opposed to
heat index criteria of 105. Low humidity may also continue to
support new wildfire activity, but slightly lighter wind speeds
compared to previous days may prevent the fire threat from
becoming truly elevated. Care should still be taken to avoid any
potential wildfire starts, as increasingly dry fuels and fast
onsetting drought conditions will support wildfire ignition and
spread.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Hot and dry weather will continue into the upcoming workweek,
with perhaps some of the hottest temperatures of the year. Monday
through Wednesday could feature readings near or exceeding 105
degrees for parts of North Texas as a stout upper ridge axis
becomes positioned directly overhead. Humidity will be lower
during this time frame as low-level wind fields become light
west/southwest, inhibiting substantial moisture recovery while
dewpoints mix in the 50s and lower 60s each afternoon. Heat
Advisory criteria will likely continue to be met via temperatures
rather than heat index values as a result. Low humidity of 20-30%
will also support additional wildfire activity, although wind
speeds look to remain modest through this time period. There is
some signal that the ridge may break down late next week or next
weekend, and this would be the next opportunity for any
mentionable shower or thunderstorm activity within the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
VFR will prevail through the period for D10 airports. There is a
small chance for brief MVFR cigs at Waco between roughly 12-14z
this morning, but this potential is too low to include in the TAF
at this time. Winds will be 10-15 kt with infrequent daytime gusts
up to 20 kt, before speeds subside in the evening.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 81 101 81 / 0 0 0 0
Waco 101 77 99 75 / 10 0 0 0
Paris 100 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
Denton 102 79 101 80 / 0 0 0 0
McKinney 101 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
Dallas 102 81 102 81 / 0 0 0 0
Terrell 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 101 77 100 75 / 10 0 0 0
Temple 99 76 99 73 / 10 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095-
102>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
