Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
113
FXUS64 KFWD 261828
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of North and Central Texas
today.
- The overall fire threat will be lower today due to increased
cloud cover and lower wind speeds. However, continue to take
caution to avoid sparking wildfires. Smoke from ongoing
wildfires will continue to reduce visibility in some areas.
- Low (10-30%) storm chances today, bringing the potential for
gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Widespread mid level cloudiness has persisted across the western
half of North Texas, in association with a weak remnant MCV which
originated in the Panhandle last night. Where thickest, these
clouds have retarded the diurnal temperature somewhat, though
virtually all locations should still attain the century mark
today. At the surface, a weak front has pushed eastward into the
I-35 corridor, bringing winds around to a west to northwest
direction across our western counties. The boundary will slow its
progression this afternoon, but overtake most of North Texas by
sunset before stalling. The mid clouds will continue to spill
eastward across I-35 during the afternoon, while eroding gradually
due to afternoon heating/mixing. Scattered showers accompanying
this MCV during the morning have largely fizzled out as of midday.
That said, a low end chance of additional convective development
will exist across most of the area, owing to residual lift from
the MCV, and modest instability.
Later tonight, short-term models are promoting a slightly better
chance of shower and isolated thunderstorm development across our
Central Texas zones. Chance PoPs were introduced across most of
this region, with lesser chances farther north into the DFW area.
Thursday will bear some similarities to today, while likely
featuring a bit more sunshine. A weak surface low will evolve
over Southeast Texas, creating a north to eventually northeast
low level windflow across North and Central Texas from late
morning through the afternoon. With the center of the persistent
upper level ridge drifting westward this week, daytime high
temperatures will be tempered slightly, with afternoon readings
topping out in the upper 90s to lower 100s areawide.
Heat indices will top out in the 105-110 range across the bulk of
the area this afternoon, necessitating a continuation of the Heat
Advisory for most of the area. An advisory was extended through
tomorrow afternoon, though its western extent was trimmed back
slightly due to the presence of drier air across Western North
Texas.
Smoke from the wildfires across Western North Texas will continue
to affect many areas west of I-35 through at least Thursday.
Visibilities in a few spots, mainly in the closest proximity to
the Ross Fire, will be reduced today and tonight, but should not
intensify enough to warrant any Dense Smoke Advisories.
Nevertheless, this will remain a noticeable factor across these
areas over the next 2 days at least.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
The semi-permanent upper high which has afflicted most of the
southern U.S. all month long will continue to drift westward
through the remainder of the week, helping to take a little edge
off of the hot temperatures across North Texas. Day to day highs
will remain a few degrees cooler than the readings endured a few
days ago. Unfortunately, the high center will reverse course and
move back over OK/TX by the weekend. The increased subsidence
associated with this center will promote a return of daily highs
in the lower 100s over most of North Texas from the weekend on
through mid week. Farther south, slightly weaker subsidence
coupled with higher moisture will result in daily highs in the
upper 90s. With normal highs now running in the mid 90s, these
ongoing afternoon readings will remain anywhere from 3 to 8
degrees above normal through most of next week. As of now, no
appreciable forcing mechanisms are apppearing in the extended
guidance, and thus rainfall chances will remain nearly zero.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through the period.
A weak cold front has cleared D10, and will move into eastern
North Texas through 00z, bringing veering westerly to northwesterly
winds in its wake. Smoke from the Ross Fire in Palo Pinto County
will continue to impact visibilities in some areas through
tonight, primarily west of D10.
The advancing boundary, coupled with a weak upper level
disturbance spawned by earlier convection upstream, may trigger a
few showers or thunderstorms from D10 eastward this afternoon.
The peristence of mid level cloudiness and reduced instability
has impacted the likelihood of this development, and confidence in
this scenario has diminished. That said, have opted to continue
both the VCSH and the PROB30 TSRA mentions in the case that some
stray convection does develop. Any storm that can form will be
short lived, with a marginal threat for lightning and moderate
LLWS due to any storm outflow.
Into the overnight and the day tomorrow, expect northerly winds to
continue as a surface low evolves over East Texas and into
Louisiana. Low storm chances are expected to return in the
18Z-00Z period Thursday and beyond, but for now we will table any
SHRA/TSRA mention for a later update.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 99 78 99 / 20 10 10 0
Waco 77 100 75 98 / 20 30 10 10
Paris 74 97 72 95 / 20 10 10 0
Denton 75 99 73 99 / 20 10 10 0
McKinney 75 98 73 98 / 10 10 10 0
Dallas 80 101 78 100 / 20 10 10 0
Terrell 75 99 73 99 / 20 10 10 0
Corsicana 77 100 75 98 / 20 20 20 0
Temple 77 101 75 99 / 30 30 20 10
Mineral Wells 73 100 71 100 / 20 30 20 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ093>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ130-141>143-156.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
