Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
139
FXUS64 KFWD 110630
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
130 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Some storms will linger into Wednesday mainly along and east of
I-35 with a continued threat for hail, winds, and flash
flooding.
- Much cooler and windy conditions are expected this afternoon
and tonight behind a strong cold front.
- A warm-up will take place Friday and Saturday, followed by
another strong cold front late Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The line of severe thunderstorms earlier this evening has moved
well east of North Texas. However, a second round of storms which
developed across the Hill Country earlier this evening may pose
a low-end threat for winds and quarter sized hail as it pushes
east across areas generally near and south of I-30 overnight into
early Wednesday morning. The overnight convection will eventually
exit into East Texas Wednesday morning, creating a lull in
activity mid morning through around midday. A final round of
storms will fire directly beneath the upper low as it passes
overhead Wednesday afternoon, with activity being focused
primarily along a trailing cold front. Large hail and damaging
winds may accompany a few of these storms, mainly for areas near
and east of I-35 and near/south of I-30. Isolated storms may also
occur west of I-35 Wednesday afternoon, though the severe threat
will be much lower. All activity will finally exit to the east and
south by sunset Wednesday evening as the front surges south and
the upper low heads for Louisiana.
Windy conditions can be expected behind the front Wednesday
afternoon and evening along with much cooler air, with low
temperatures dropping into the 30s and 40s late Wednesday night.
Gusty north winds will create wind chills in the 30s area-wide
overnight into Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
A nice, cool Thursday will be in store following a cold start to
the day as high pressure settles in. Winds will become light and
skies should clear, giving way to sunny skies and highs in the
60s. South winds will return Thursday night and Friday as the
surface ridge exits to the east. Return flow along with weak
ridging aloft will lead to a warming trend starting Friday, with
highs in the 70s and 80s both Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, a
large scale upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the
CONUS, driving another strong cold front south through the Plains
and eventually into North Texas Sunday afternoon. The front will
surge south through all of the area Sunday evening, initiating
another round of cold and breezy weather. Sunday night lows in the
30s and 40s will lead to wind chills ranging from the upper 20s
in the northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast by daybreak
Monday. High pressure aloft will amplify dramatically Tuesday
onward, quickly warming things up by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
The upper low driving the ongoing convection is currently moving
east from the Big Bend region to South Central Texas. Following
the earlier evening convection, a second line of storms is
currently moving through the Metroplex TAF sites. These storms
will eventually exit to the east during the overnight hours. Will
hence keep VCTS in the TAF until about 09z with a TEMPO for TSRA
from 06-08Z. The rest of the overnight into Wednesday morning
period will be comparatively quiet, with additional storms
expected to remain southeast of the area on Wednesday.
A cold front will then push through the area on Wednesday,
reaching the Metroplex 16-18Z and KACT 18-20Z. Gusty north winds
will follow behind the front along with VFR conditions for the
rest of the period.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026
Spotter activation is unlikely. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 42 66 47 / 20 0 0 0
Waco 79 42 64 43 / 40 10 0 0
Paris 77 39 63 43 / 50 10 0 0
Denton 75 37 65 43 / 10 0 0 0
McKinney 76 40 64 44 / 30 0 0 0
Dallas 79 43 66 48 / 30 0 0 0
Terrell 78 40 64 43 / 50 10 0 0
Corsicana 80 43 67 46 / 50 20 0 0
Temple 80 42 67 42 / 40 10 0 0
Mineral Wells 75 37 67 42 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
