Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
612
FXUS64 KFWD 041726
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and dry conditions are expected through the holiday weekend
with low storm chances today through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026
Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper trough spreading across
northwest TX at this hour with only some passing high clouds
evident in satellite imagery. This feature will slowly slide
eastward through the day keeping North Texas within a weak
subsident zone around the eastern periphery of stronger ridging
over West Texas. As a result, we should remain mostly
precipitation free through the day and see temperatures nudge
upward about 1-2 degrees this afternoon. The exception to this may
be our eastern counties again where deeper moisture and strong
heating may lead to a few isolated thunderstorms in a generally
uncapped environment. We`ll have some 10-20% PoPs to account for
this isolated activity. Otherwise, another hot day is expected
with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Deep afternoon
mixing has generally kept dewpoints manageable, but slightly
warmer temperatures this afternoon will push heat indices up to
102 to 105 degrees. Given the tendency for dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s during peak heating within this pattern and recent
observed and forecast wet bulb globe temperatures in the 86-89
degree range, we`ll forego the issuance of a Heat Advisory at this
time. Any afternoon convection will diminish in coverage with loss
of daytime heating this evening leaving mostly clear skies and
a warm night in store with lows in the upper 70s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026
By Sunday, troughing will amplify a bit over the mid-Mississippi
River valley and effectively shunt stronger mid level ridging over
Texas farther to the west. This will open the door for convection
to our north to drive a weak frontal boundary southward into the
region during the day Sunday. There is a little disagreement among
the guidance as to how far south this boundary will make it on
Sunday, but most show some weak northerly winds across the Red
River during the afternoon. With strong afternoon heating, weak
capping, and moisture expected to pool along any boundary, we
should see widely scattered thunderstorms develop by late Sunday
afternoon. somewhere along and north of I-20. While coverage is a
little uncertain, we`ll have PoPs at 20-30% during this time.
Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer with MLCAPE
~3000J/kg and surface T/Td spreads approaching 35 degrees which
will be more than supportive of isolated severe wind gusts with
any convection that can develop. This activity would also have
some upper level support to sustain itself later into the evening
as opposed to our typical diurnally driven summertime convection.
Remnant boundaries from any convection on Sunday would likely play
a factor in storm chances on Monday. With the weak upper trough
sliding southward a bit, it`s likely that any scattered convection
on Monday would be a bit farther south as well and we`ll keep PoPs
confined to areas mainly along and south of I-20 for Monday
afternoon. By Tuesday, mid level ridging will attempt to build
back eastward a bit and we`ll keep any PoPs confined to our far
eastern counties where moisture will be a little better. Beyond
Tuesday, rain chances appear fairly low with ridging allowing
temperatures to climb back to near 100 degrees through the rest of
the week.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026
VFR conditions prevail with southerly winds around 11kts. Some
pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35
this afternoon but will likely diminish this evening. Model
guidance is trending toward an outflow boundary moving southward
into the region in the hours surrounding daybreak on Sunday, which
would shift winds northeasterly for a few hours before returning
to southerly flow. This outflow is highly conditional based on the
convection that occurs in OK tonight, so it hasn`t been included
in this package. Should this outflow develop, there is a chance of
redeveloping showers and thunderstorms along this boundary in the
afternoon. Models are generally highlighting the I-20 corridor,
but not enough confidence on location and timing exists to include
just yet.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 100 80 99 / 0 30 20 20
Waco 79 99 79 97 / 0 0 20 20
Paris 75 95 73 92 / 0 20 30 10
Denton 80 100 77 98 / 0 30 20 10
McKinney 79 98 77 96 / 0 30 20 10
Dallas 82 101 80 100 / 0 30 20 20
Terrell 78 99 77 97 / 0 30 20 20
Corsicana 79 100 79 99 / 0 10 20 30
Temple 77 99 78 98 / 0 0 20 10
Mineral Wells 77 99 75 98 / 0 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
