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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 030508
SPC AC 030506

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast for today across the
contiguous United States.

A mid-level trough will gradually progress eastward across the
northern Rockies and overspread the northern Plains as an upper low
continues to meander over the Mid Atlantic today. Building surface
high pressure and associated large-scale subsidence should limit
thunderstorm potential across much of the central Plains and
Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. Moisture
advection ahead of the northern Rockies upper trough should
encourage some thunderstorm development from late morning into the
evening hours across the northern Plains southwestward into the
central Rockies and desert Southwest. Buoyancy appears meager across
the central U.S., with mid-level flow and associated shear expected
to gradually weaken with the progression of the upper trough. While
a couple of strong storms with sub-severe wind gusts and hail are
possible from the northern Plains to the Southwest, any severe
threat that manages to materialize should be very isolated at best,
with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/03/2022