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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 2000Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 181941
SPC AC 181940

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Texas coast,
northeastern Florida, and parts of the central and southern Rockies
through tonight.  However, severe storms are not expected.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Some changes have been made to categorical (10 percent probability)
thunderstorm lines, most notably across Florida, in an attempt to
better account for latest trends in observational data and model

Across Florida, where forcing for ascent is generally weak beneath
mid/upper subtropical ridging, any appreciable risk for
thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight now appears generally
confined to northeastern areas.  This is where higher precipitable
water is focused  along/ahead of a slow moving then
stalling/weakening frontal zone, in the presence of somewhat weaker
mid-level inhibition (compared to central/southern Florida).

..Kerr.. 10/18/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018/

A closed low over the central Rockies will continue eastward and
begin to phase with an amplifying shortwave trough over the Upper
Midwest tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures, sufficiently steep
lapse rates, and weak buoyancy will support a threat for isolated
thunderstorms over the central Rockies, while other thunderstorms
will be possible across southern/eastern NM toward northwest TX.
Farther southeast, a weak low-level warm advection regime is
becoming established across TX, with isolated lightning strikes most
likely to occur along the coast and offshore waters. Otherwise,
despite negligible large-scale forcing for ascent, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible within the lingering tropical air
mass across FL, primarily along the front across north FL.