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Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1630Z Outlook
  
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

  
000
ACUS01 KWNS 261555
SWODY1
SPC AC 261554

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over
parts of the inland Northwest, and from Mid Mississippi and Ohio
Valley region to the east-central Gulf Coast and southern
Appalachians.

...IL/IN...
A deep upper low will track slowly northeastward across MO today. 
The main surface cold front associated with this low extends roughly
along the MS River from northeast MO into southern IL.  Considerable
low-level moisture is present ahead of the front across parts of
IL/IN, where relatively strong daytime heating will take place. 
Given the cool temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates, scattered
thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon and track northward. 
The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind
gusts.  Please refer to MCD #923 for more details.

...KY/TN into OH...
The mid-level jet max associated with the aforementioned upper low
extends from AR into KY/TN.  Heating will be slow in the area along
the cold front over middle TN and central KY, but dewpoints in the
mid 60s and temperatures slowly warming through the 70s will yield
sufficient CAPE for thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.  Relatively
strong low and deep layer shear profiles will promote organized
storm structures including bowing structures and supercells. 
Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, along with a few
tornadoes.  This activity will move into eastern KY and southern OH
this evening before encountering a more stable air mass and
weakening.

...AL/GA/FL...
Isolated supercells have been occurring off the AL/FL coast this
morning.  Other storms are expected through the day along/ahead of
the cold front over western AL.  Extensive cloud cover across the
region will limit heating/destabilization.  Nevertheless, the
strongest cells in this area will pose a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

...OR/ID...
A progressive shortwave trough is approaching the OR coast.  Lift
ahead of this trough, coupled with full sunshine and surface
dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s will result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms from northeast OR into ID.  Hail and locally damaging
wind gusts may occur in the strongest cells late this afternoon and
evening.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/26/2022

$$