Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Convective Tornado
Hail Wind
Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS01 KWNS 061240
SPC AC 061239

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z


Thunderstorm potential appears minimal.

A progressive, somewhat high-amplitude wave train will characterize
the mid/upper-level pattern through the period.  A strong shortwave
trough -- initially over the inland Mid-Atlantic region -- will move
offshore around midday to early afternoon, developing a closed
500-mb cyclone well offshore thereafter.  Upstream, a trough was
apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the northern High Plains
across WY, UT, southern NV, and southern CA.  This feature will
split through the period, with the northern segment reaching the
Upper Great Lakes by 12Z tomorrow.  Meanwhile, the southern portion
will move slower and to the east-southeast, forming a closed cyclone
over parts of AZ and NM by 12Z.  Isolated, brief lightning cannot be
ruled out this afternoon over northern/eastern AZ to northwestern NM
in a zone of increasing large-scale ascent preceding the mid/upper
trough.  However, low/middle-level theta-e appears too weak to
support a general/10% thunderstorm area.  Lack of low-level
moisture, instability and/or lift will preclude thunderstorms
elsewhere in the CONUS.

..Edwards.. 02/06/2023