Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Wed, Jul 25, 2018 - Thu, Jul 26, 2018 D7Sat, Jul 28, 2018 - Sun, Jul 29, 2018
D5Thu, Jul 26, 2018 - Fri, Jul 27, 2018 D8Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - Mon, Jul 30, 2018
D6Fri, Jul 27, 2018 - Sat, Jul 28, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 220836
SWOD48
SPC AC 220834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models continue to indicate that a significant short wave impulse
will dig across the central Canadian/U.S. border by mid week, before
turning eastward and northeastward across Ontario and the upper
Great Lakes, through Quebec and portions of the Northeast early this
weekend.  In the wake of preceding, increasingly sheared troughing
accelerating across the Atlantic Seaboard, it remains unclear as to
the extent to which associated forcing for ascent may interact with
a residual seasonably moist air mass to the lee of the Appalachians.
A risk for strong/severe thunderstorms does not appear out of the
question Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the northern
Mid Atlantic into New England, but due to large uncertainties,
severe probabilities remain below 15 percent.

Otherwise, the medium-range guidance indicates that upper ridging
will build to the north of the prominent Southwestern subtropical
high, through the Pacific Northwest, northern intermountain region
and Rockies by late next weekend.  A coinciding upper trough
amplification may take place across the middle Mississippi into
lower Ohio Valleys, perhaps accompanied by frontal wave development.
However, appreciable organized severe thunderstorm potential is not
readily apparent at this time.

..Kerr.. 07/22/2018