Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sun, Oct 21, 2018 - Mon, Oct 22, 2018 D7Wed, Oct 24, 2018 - Thu, Oct 25, 2018
D5Mon, Oct 22, 2018 - Tue, Oct 23, 2018 D8Thu, Oct 25, 2018 - Fri, Oct 26, 2018
D6Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - Wed, Oct 24, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 180835
SWOD48
SPC AC 180833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most models are in good agreement through about Mon/D5, depicting a
large, amplified upper trough exiting the eastern states on Sun/D4,
with another shortwave within the larger-scale area of cyclonic flow
aloft affecting the Great Lakes and Northeast beyond Mon/D5. This
will ensure relatively cool and dry conditions over the central and
eastern CONUS during this period.

Beyond Mon/D5, model solutions begin to diverge. There is some hint
of more organized thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern TX
across the Deep South in the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame, but both
predictability and potential for anything significant are low at
this time.

..Jewell.. 10/18/2018