Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Tue, Nov 19, 2019 - Wed, Nov 20, 2019 D7Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - Sat, Nov 23, 2019
D5Wed, Nov 20, 2019 - Thu, Nov 21, 2019 D8Sat, Nov 23, 2019 - Sun, Nov 24, 2019
D6Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - Fri, Nov 22, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 160959
SWOD48
SPC AC 160957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will not exist from Tue/D4 through Fri/D7 across
the CONUS, as multiple shortwave troughs moving from Great Lakes
into the Northeast will maintain a dry surface pattern over the
central and eastern states, with little if any instability.

While predictability is low, deterministic ECMWF output suggests a
low-latitude shortwave trough may move eastward across TX, with a
warm front along the TX, LA, and MS coasts late Sat/D8 night. If
this scenario verifies, severe potential may materialize as
instability returns to the area, beneath strong winds aloft with the
upper trough. However, model spread is high for this time frame.

..Jewell.. 11/16/2019