Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sun, Dec 04, 2022 - Mon, Dec 05, 2022 D7Wed, Dec 07, 2022 - Thu, Dec 08, 2022
D5Mon, Dec 05, 2022 - Tue, Dec 06, 2022 D8Thu, Dec 08, 2022 - Fri, Dec 09, 2022
D6Tue, Dec 06, 2022 - Wed, Dec 07, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 010950
SWOD48
SPC AC 010949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Thu Dec 01 2022

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
Westerly flow at mid-levels is forecast in the central and eastern
states on Sunday, with a low-amplitude trough located in the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the
western and central Gulf Coast. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, but instability and
large-scale ascent will remain weak, suggesting that any potential
for severe will be limited.

On Monday, mid-level flow is forecast to become west-southwesterly
across much of the U.S. Low-level moisture is forecast to stream
northward into parts of the southern Plains, Arklatex and lower
Mississippi Valley. Model forecasts suggest that elevated
thunderstorms could develop Monday evening into Monday night along
the northern edge of the moist sector, in response to a developing
low-level jet. Although a severe threat could develop, any threat
would probably remain minimal due to a lack of instability. 

...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, the models are in reasonably good agreement, with a
mid-level jet moving into the Ohio Valley, and low-level flow
maximized across the southern Appalachians and Carolinas.
Thunderstorms could develop south of the mid-level jet from parts of
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the northern Gulf Coast states.
Although a severe threat will be possible, any threat would likely
be marginal due to a lack of instability.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the moist airmass is forecast to remain
over the Gulf Coast region as a shortwave trough moves across the
Desert Southwest. This feature is currently forecast to reach the
southern Rockies during the day on Thursday. Thunderstorms could
develop ahead of the trough in parts of the southern Plains Thursday
evening into the overnight period. Instability is forecast to remain
weak across the southern Plains Thursday and Thursday night
suggesting any severe threat would be limited.

..Broyles.. 12/01/2022