Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Fri, Feb 21, 2020 - Sat, Feb 22, 2020 D7Mon, Feb 24, 2020 - Tue, Feb 25, 2020
D5Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - Sun, Feb 23, 2020 D8Tue, Feb 25, 2020 - Wed, Feb 26, 2020
D6Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - Mon, Feb 24, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 180909
SWOD48
SPC AC 180908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 6-8/Sun-Tue -- Southern Plains through the Southeast...

A closed low/upper shortwave trough will move over southern CA by
Day 5/Sat, and continue progressing eastward across the southern
Plains this weekend, before lifting east/northeast toward the
central Appalachians early next week. As the trough emerges over the
southern High Plains on Day 6/Sun and the mid/lower MS Valley on Day
7/Mon, thunderstorm chances will increase as a surface low and
attendant cold front shift east across the south-central U.S. 
Strong surface high pressure over the eastern half of the CONUS, and
a cold front permeating deep into the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean
in the Day 2/3 time frame, will likely stunt higher quality moisture
return ahead of the surface low on Sunday. By Days 7-8/Mon-Tue there
is considerable spread in medium range guidance regarding how the
warm sector will evolve eastward across the lower MS Valley and
Southeast. At this time, severe potential appears too limited and
uncertain in the Day 6-8/Sun-Tue period to include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 02/18/2020