Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sun, Apr 22, 2018 - Mon, Apr 23, 2018 D7Wed, Apr 25, 2018 - Thu, Apr 26, 2018
D5Mon, Apr 23, 2018 - Tue, Apr 24, 2018 D8Thu, Apr 26, 2018 - Fri, Apr 27, 2018
D6Tue, Apr 24, 2018 - Wed, Apr 25, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 190731
SWOD48
SPC AC 190729

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A considerable amount of convection is expected to develop across
portions of the Gulf States during the day4-5 time period. Latest
guidance continues to suggest a low-latitude upper trough will eject
across TX toward the FL Peninsula as substantial mid-level flow
spreads across the northern Gulf basin, along with weak height
falls. This scenario supports the potential for significant
thunderstorm activity over the northern Gulf which would impede
northward advance of more substantive moisture/instability. Current
thinking is buoyancy may be limited near the Gulf coast which,
despite the strengthening shear, may be inadequate for organized
severe thunderstorms. Will not introduce 15% severe probs along the
Gulf coast for Sunday/Monday time period for these reasons. Beyond
day5, severe threat appears low across the CONUS.

..Darrow.. 04/19/2018