Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Mon, Jan 22, 2018 - Tue, Jan 23, 2018 D7Thu, Jan 25, 2018 - Fri, Jan 26, 2018
D5Tue, Jan 23, 2018 - Wed, Jan 24, 2018 D8Fri, Jan 26, 2018 - Sat, Jan 27, 2018
D6Wed, Jan 24, 2018 - Thu, Jan 25, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 190902
SWOD48
SPC AC 190901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some differences exists within the medium-range guidance regarding
the progression of the mature system likely centered over the
central Plains at the beginning of the period (12Z Monday). However,
the overall progression is similar with the system moving off the
Northeast coast late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Some thunderstorms
are possible Monday as the front associated with this system
interacts with the more moist and unstable air along the Gulf Coast.
Some severe cannot be ruled out, particularly along the central Gulf
Coast, but limited instability should keep the overall severe threat
low.

Models are showing relatively good model-to-model and run-to-run
consistency regarding upper ridging across the Plains on Wednesday
and Thursday before another more substantial shortwave trough moves
into the region on Friday. Even so, uncertainty regarding moisture
return and resulting instability ahead of this system as well as
typical uncertainties at this range (i.e. Day 7) lead to low
forecast confidence.

..Mosier.. 01/19/2018