Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4 - 8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook. A depicted severe weather area indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a point.
D4Sat, Aug 13, 2022 - Sun, Aug 14, 2022 D7Tue, Aug 16, 2022 - Wed, Aug 17, 2022
D5Sun, Aug 14, 2022 - Mon, Aug 15, 2022 D8Wed, Aug 17, 2022 - Thu, Aug 18, 2022
D6Mon, Aug 15, 2022 - Tue, Aug 16, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
  1. 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
  2. 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
  3. 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

    
000
ACUS48 KWNS 100743
SWOD48
SPC AC 100742

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to be relatively
low through the extended-range period. A seasonably deep
mid/upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the eastern
CONUS into next week, and possibly retrograde slightly into portions
of the central CONUS. Periodic frontal passages associated with this
trough are expected to keep richer low-level moisture confined to
near the Gulf Coast, limiting the potential for substantial
destabilization east of the Rockies. Any notable severe potential
would most likely evolve from the northwesterly flow regime that
will be in place from the northern Plains into the mid-MS Valley and
Southeast, but confidence in the likelihood, location, and timing of
any such scenario remains quite low at this time.

..Dean.. 08/10/2022