Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook

Images courtesy of the NWS Storm Prediction Center
 Forecast Discussion

ACUS02 KWNS 100556
SPC AC 100555

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z


The threat for severe thunderstorms is expected to be relatively low
on Thursday.

A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS on Thursday, while the upper ridge over parts of the Rockies
and High Plains and the upper low offshore of the Northwest are
expected to move little through the forecast period. A cold front is
forecast to move slowly southward through parts of the Mid Atlantic
and OH/TN Valleys into parts of the Carolinas and Southeast. A
nearly stationary front across parts of the Upper Midwest and
northern Plains may begin moving northward as a warm front Thursday
night, as a surface low moves slowly eastward across parts of the

...Carolinas into southeast VA...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across parts of the
Southeast into the Carolinas and southeast VA, as the
mid/upper-level trough amplifies and the cold front pushes into the
region. While deep-layer shear may be slightly stronger compared to
D1/Wednesday, it will still be weak, and somewhat cooler and less
unstable conditions will potentially limit the threat for strong
outflow winds and/or wet microbursts. Due to these factors, no wind
probabilities have been included, though isolated instances of
damaging gusts cannot be ruled out across the region.  

...SD into southwest MN and western/central IA...
A narrow zone of moderate destabilization will be possible Thursday
afternoon along and north of the nearly stationary front. Low-level
easterly flow veering to modest northwesterlies aloft will result in
a conditionally favorable wind profile for organized convection near
the frontal zone. However, the strongest large-scale ascent is
expected on the cool side of the boundary, and the potential for any
surface-based convection within this regime is too uncertain to
include severe probabilities at this time.

...Interior Northwest...
Along the eastern periphery of upper cyclone, a relatively favorable
overlap of weak-to-moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear
is again expected from northeast OR into eastern WA and
western/northern ID. However, with the upper cyclone expected to
remain well offshore, large-scale ascent is expected to be limited
across this area, with a reduction in storm coverage compared to
previous days. If robust convection can be sustained in this area,
then a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.

..Dean.. 08/10/2022