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 Forecast Discussion

    
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ACUS03 KWNS 250835
SWODY3
SPC AC 250834

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level
convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.

For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.

..Broyles.. 02/25/2024

$$