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Categorical Day3 0830Z Outlook
  

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 Forecast Discussion

    
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ACUS03 KWNS 180505
SWODY3
SPC AC 180505

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening from northwest
Arizona into southern Nevada and Utah, along the northern Gulf
Coast, and in the vicinity of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

...Synopsis...
A strongly cyclonic 100-140 kt mid to upper level jet will dive
southeastward across the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley during
the day, with substantial cooling aloft across the Great Lakes. Cold
air aloft coupled with the relatively warm lakes may result in
low-topped thunderstorms from northeast Ohio into western New York
during the afternoon and evening.

To the south, an east-west oriented front will continue to push
south toward the northern Gulf Coast, where 65-70 F dewpoints will
exist supporting a few weak thunderstorms prior to the front moving
offshore.

To the west, a weak upper low will approach coastal central
California, with steep lapse rates aloft extending eastward toward
the Colorado river valley. Midlevel moisture will spread northwest
across Arizona and into the Great Basin during the evening, with
scattered thunderstorms expected. Small hail cannot be ruled out
with some of the cells due to cold air aloft and modest deep-layer
shear, but severe weather is not anticipated.

..Jewell.. 10/18/2018

$$