Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
735
FXUS64 KFWD 131827
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
127 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and rain-free weather will continue through much of this
week, with a low chance for storms returning on Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/
A broad ridge remains the controlling influence across North and
Central Texas, while a weak shortwave lifts across West Texas into
Oklahoma. Subsidence on the southern flank of this disturbance
will keep our area dry today. Expect passing cirrus across parts
of North Texas to continue to erode through the early afternoon.
Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees as
modest southeast winds near 5 to 10 mph prevail.
Lows will fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s tonight with a subtle
backing of surface winds to the east. This stagnant pattern
warrants a persistence forecast for Tuesday: mostly sunny and
dry with highs generally hovering within a degree or two of 90
degrees and light east to southeast winds.
12
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Late Tuesday Through Sunday/
High pressure aloft will center overhead midweek, maintaining a
quiet and warm pattern with little day-to-day variability. Expect
afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and morning lows in
the mid 50s and 60s. Late week, a large scale trough moving across
the southern Rockies into the Plains will lead to tightening of
the surface pressure gradient, drawing higher dewpoints back into
North and Central Texas by Friday. This will set us up for
returning low (20-30%) rain chances across North Texas late Friday
and early Saturday, spreading across the remainder of the region
Saturday afternoon and overnight into early Sunday as the
amplifying trough drives a cold front southeastward through the
region.
The better instability will likely be focused from the Ark-La-Tex
into the Lower Mississippi Valley during peak heating on
Saturday. If the current timing of the cold front verifies, local
impacts may be limited to increasing clouds, breezy prefrontal
southerly winds, and low storm chances in advance of the front,
mainly near and east of the I-35 corridor. Ensemble spread on
frontal timing remains on the order of 12 to 24 hours, which will
continue to shift rain coverage with the potential for some areas
to miss out on receiving measurable rainfall altogether. While
this front may not deliver the fall-like cool down that so many of
us where hoping for, this pattern change should be enough to
nudge temperatures towards climate normals late this weekend into
early next week.
12
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail at all TAF sites with southerly winds gradually
backing to the east-southeast late this afternoon and through the evening.
Speeds will remain at or below 10 kts through the end of the
period. No significant aviation concerns are expected.
12
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 67 88 65 87 / 0 5 5 0 0
Waco 87 62 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 87 62 88 61 86 / 0 5 5 0 0
Denton 88 62 88 60 86 / 5 5 5 0 0
McKinney 88 63 88 60 86 / 5 5 5 0 0
Dallas 90 67 90 65 88 / 0 5 5 0 0
Terrell 88 62 89 60 87 / 0 0 5 0 0
Corsicana 90 63 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 88 60 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 90 62 90 59 89 / 5 5 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
