Forecast Discussion for Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
000
FXUS64 KFWD 111031
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Friday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of
100-105.
- Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with scattered
thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/
/Through Saturday/
A strong shortwave trough dropping southeast through the Plains
will force a cold front south through Oklahoma Friday night and
Saturday. Another seasonably hot and humid day can be expected
Friday out ahead of the front, with high temperatures in the
lower to mid 90s and heat indices from the mid 90s to around 105.
A broken line of convection will likely push south through
Oklahoma along or ahead of the front Friday night into Saturday
morning. Storms may weaken in the morning as a modest low level
jet mixes out, but should redevelop late morning into Saturday
afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. Activity would be
focused along outflow left over from the collapsing storms, with
said redevelopment occurring near the Red River and/or Highway 380
corridor.
In addition, an active seabreeze appears likely Saturday
afternoon, resulting in a second area of scattered showers and
storms across Central Texas. Those two areas will hence have the
highest POPs, but will still include at least a slight chance of
storms across the rest of the region in the event that the
seabreeze pushes farther north or outflow farther south. Severe
weather is not likely, but a few of the stronger storms will be
capable of 50 MPH wind gusts, heavy rain, and localized flooding.
All activity will start weakening after sunset and should
dissipate around midnight.
30
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/
/Saturday Night Onward/
The main shortwave trough responsible for Saturday`s convection
will continue its journey southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday
night and Sunday. However, a weak upper low, which is progged to
develop near the base of the trough, will be left behind and
become quasi-stationary somewhere across North Texas on Sunday.
Additional rounds of scattered showers and storms will be the
result for Sunday, and possibly into Monday. The highest POPs
will be on Sunday when the low is parked overhead, with slightly
lower POPs on Monday as the low starts to lift northeast of the
region. Weak flow aloft will preclude a severe weather threat both
Sunday and Monday, but heavy rain and localized flooding will
again be a possibility just about anywhere due to the expectation
of slow storm motions.
The low will accelerate northeast into the Midwest Monday night
and Tuesday, shutting off rain chances for the most part as a mid
level ridge builds in from the east in its wake. There may still
be isolated thunderstorms each afternoon, but increasing
subsidence should keep most locations seasonably hot and rain free
mid to late next week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
Through Tonight...
MVFR ceilings in the Hill Country have thus far struggled to make
any northward progress, but are still slowly encroaching on the
Waco area. Will hence keep the TEMPO for MVFR in at KACT through
16Z. The rest of the region will be VFR, and only have to contend
with a breezy south wind through tonight.
Saturday...
A stronger northward stratus surge Saturday morning will warrant
the introduction of MVFR starting 09Z at KACT and 12Z in the
extended portion of the DFW TAF. We will eventually need to
tackle the timing of potential thunderstorms late Saturday, but
any impacts will be beyond the current TAF cycle.
30
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 76 93 75 90 / 0 5 30 40 40
Waco 92 75 91 74 91 / 0 0 30 20 40
Paris 93 75 93 73 91 / 0 5 30 30 40
Denton 95 76 93 73 89 / 0 5 30 40 50
McKinney 95 76 93 75 90 / 0 5 30 40 50
Dallas 96 76 94 76 92 / 0 5 30 30 40
Terrell 95 75 93 74 92 / 0 5 30 20 40
Corsicana 95 76 94 76 93 / 5 5 30 20 30
Temple 93 74 91 74 91 / 5 5 30 20 40
Mineral Wells 95 74 92 73 88 / 0 0 30 50 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion
