Dallasdawg.com Weather

506
FXUS64 KFWD 121112
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
512 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through the middle of
  next week.

- Widespread showers and storms are expected late Friday through
  late Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
  particularly east of the I-35 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A tranquil and mild night is underway as surface high pressure
shifts east of the region. Winds have gone near calm, and
efficient radiational cooling is already occurring. As of late
evening, many areas have already dipped into the 40s, with some
sheltered spots even falling into the upper 30s. Overnight lows
have been adjusted toward the cooler end of guidance (NBM 25th
percentile) to better capture current trends. By Thursday,
southerly flow will be firmly reestablished, allowing temperatures
to rebound quickly into the 70s areawide. The warming trend will
occur beneath building upper ridging, with only thin high cloud
cover drifting overhead. Increasing humidity will also keep fire
weather concerns minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Our next weather system arrives Friday into Saturday as a
progressive upper trough sweeps across the Southern Plains. This
feature is currently moving inland along the West Coast and will
continue its eastward progression over the next 48 hours.
Meanwhile, the same cold front that moved through North Texas
earlier has since stalled along the Gulf Coast. As return flow
ensues on Thursday, this boundary will begin lifting northward as
a warm front. Exactly how far north it gets will influence where
the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up Friday into Saturday.

Guidance continues to support a scenario where rain begins
developing late Friday afternoon and into the evening, initially
along the northwest fringes of the forecast area. Coverage and
intensity will increase overnight as the upper trough and
associated jet dynamics spread across the region. Widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday night
through much of the day Saturday.

QPF Forecast:
Rainfall totals through Saturday night are still expected to be
beneficial across most of the area. The most likely range of
accumulated rainfall is now between 0.5 to 1.5 inches with a
20-30% chance that localized totals exceed 2 inches, particularly
across the southeast. This is supported by stronger moisture
return and greater convective potential in that region. Overall,
guidance has continued to focus higher rainfall totals across East
Texas into Louisiana. This may be tied to the unfavorable timing
of the cold front, which displaces the frontogenetic lift just
east of our area around peak heating.

While some training of showers and storms may occur locally, the
broader southwest flow aloft may steer most convection steadily
eastward, reducing the potential for prolonged downpours across
any one area. However, elevated rainfall rates could still produce
localized flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying areas,
and this potential will be monitored closely over the next 24-48
hours.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany this system,
with the best overlap of instability and shear likely occurring
Saturday afternoon ahead of the trailing cold front. That said,
the cold front may arrive too late to fully capitalize on peak
destabilization, keeping the threat for strong or severe storms
marginal and conditional. If sufficient buoyancy does materialize,
isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds or small hail
cannot be ruled out, especially across Central and eastern North
Texas.

Rain will taper off from west to east Saturday night into early
Sunday. Temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler on
Sunday, but remain seasonably mild with highs in the 60s and low
70s. By early next week, high pressure will become reestablished
aloft brining back dry and warmer weather through at least
Wednesday. Afternoon highs will climb back into the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds remain
light and variable early this morning, generally under 4 knots,
but are expected to settle out of the southeast by mid to late
morning as boundary layer mixing increases. Speeds will remain
modest through the day, generally 5 to 7 knots. No significant
aviation impacts are expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  55  80  60 /   0   0  10  60
Waco                77  56  79  61 /   0   0   0  30
Paris               69  50  76  59 /   0  10  20  50
Denton              74  51  79  58 /   0   0  20  70
McKinney            73  52  79  60 /   0   0  20  60
Dallas              75  57  80  62 /   0   0  10  60
Terrell             74  52  79  60 /   0   0  10  40
Corsicana           77  57  82  62 /   0   0  10  30
Temple              80  55  79  60 /   0   0   0  30
Mineral Wells       80  52  82  58 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12