Dallasdawg.com Weather

676
FXUS64 KFWD 021730
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1130 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week.

- Low rain chances return to the region Wednesday and Thursday of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The center of a surface low pressure system is located right along
the Red River north of the Metroplex. Gusty west winds have
overspread much of the region south of I-20 while areas to the
north have generally seen lighter winds. Sunny skies, west winds,
and lowering humidity will lead to a warm afternoon with highs in
the lower 80s across the southern half of the CWA. We`ll stay a
little cooler along and north of I-20 with highs in the lower 70s.

An upstream shortwave will move eastward this afternoon and our
surface low will eventually move east with it dragging a weak cold
front into the region this evening. Winds will gradually come
around to the north as cooler air spills southward. We`ll see
overnight lows fall into the lower 40s across the northwest with
mid/upper 40s elsewhere. Given the location of the surface low,
some wrap around moisture is expected to spread back into the
region late tonight into Saturday, mainly east of I-35. This may
result in some increased cloud cover across our eastern counties
through late morning Saturday. Cloud cover will gradually erode
into the afternoon with highs topping out in the 60s and lower
70s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

High pressure will briefly build into the Southern Plains late
Saturday with the upper pattern remaining fairly progressive.
Despite the progressive nature of the upper levels, ridging will
generally prevail across the Southern Plains through the middle of
the week. This will continue to support well above normal
temperatures with readings climbing back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s by Tuesday. Very dry air will also work into the I-35
corridor by Tuesday afternoon with RH values dropping to 15-25%.
With temperatures near 80 degrees and a west-southwest wind, we`ll
likely see an uptick in grass fire activity on Tuesday afternoon.
Wind speeds will generally remain around 10 mph which should
inhibit a more significant fire weather day.

By Wednesday, a fast moving potent upper shortwave will move out
of the Desert Southwest with strong height falls spreading into
West Texas. This will allow a surface low to quickly deepen across
the Panhandle, and low level moisture to surge northward ahead of
the upper trough. Strong forcing for ascent will overspread North
Texas late Wednesday night into early Thursday and should be
sufficient for showers and perhaps an elevated storm or two to
develop. We`ll keep PoPs at 30% for now given some uncertainty in
the handling of the upper trough amongst the guidance, but these
are likely to go up in the coming days.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR will prevail for much of the period with west-northwest winds
this afternoon gradually becoming more northerly this evening
behind a weak cold front. North winds will prevail through the day
Saturday across the region. The main concern for this period will
be the potential for some low clouds to wrap around a center of
low pressure late tonight into Saturday and impact parts of the
D10 airspace. Right now, we`ll keep the bulk of this cloud cover
to the east of the major airports and include a SCT015 at DFW/DAL.
MVFR cigs will likely prevail across east TX, so we`ll continue to
monitor this potential.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  48  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                80  50  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               70  47  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              72  43  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            72  46  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              75  49  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  47  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           80  50  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              83  50  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77  43  69  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$