Dallasdawg.com Weather

265
FXUS64 KFWD 131726
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot weather conditions will continue through next
  week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.

- Decaying showers may briefly shift over locations west of
  Highway 281 Sunday morning before dissipating.

- There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

Seasonably hot and dry conditions will prevail today across North
and Central Texas as the region remains under the influence of
mid/upper ridging. Isolated to widely scattered showers and even a
couple thunderstorms may develop across parts of East Texas in the
deeper moisture later this afternoon but should remain largely
east of our forecast area.

Later this evening into tonight, an upper trough will shift over
the Four Corners region and into the Plains initiating widespread
convection across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Increasing CINH and dwindling synoptic-scale support as the trough
lifts northeastward will cause this system to gradually diminish
in intensity as it shifts eastward toward our Big Country
counties. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) that a few
lingering showers make it to our counties west of Highway 281
Sunday morning before completely dissipating. Therefore, expect
another hot mid-September day on Sunday with greater cloud cover
than the day before. We will need to monitor for spotty, isolated
showers (less than 10% coverage) across parts of North Texas
tomorrow afternoon, generally after 2PM, as a plume of 1.5" PWATS
settles over the area. The lightning potential will be very low
with any activity that is able to develop Sunday afternoon/early
Sunday evening.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday and Beyond/

A weakness in the height field aloft will remain over the Southern
Plains through Monday keeping the potential for a few isolated
showers (maybe a rumble of thunder) in the forecast near the Red
River through Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, the upper-level
pattern becomes rather benign with a pair of seasonably hot and
dry days Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Extended deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to
highlight the potential for a brief pattern shift on Thursday as
an upper trough dips southeast through the Plains. This would
allow for a quick round of isolated to scattered showers and
storms across parts of North Texas, primarily along/north of I-20,
on Thursday. Right now we will keep PoPs limited to 20-30%, but
continue to check back for forecast updates. Beyond Thursday,
ridging aloft looks to take hold once again keeping this mostly
dry and hot period going into the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south winds generally below 12 kts will
prevail through the TAF period for all North and Central Texas
terminals. Occasional gusts up to 15 kts will be possible this
afternoon.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  74  93  74  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                93  71  92  72  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               92  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              94  71  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            93  71  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              95  74  94  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             92  71  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           94  72  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       94  68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$