Dallasdawg.com Weather

537
FXUS64 KFWD 041945
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
145 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern will bring daily rain and storm
  chances today through this weekend.

- Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible
  this afternoon and evening across parts of North and Central
  Texas.

- After a relative lull in precipitation Thursday, multiple rounds
  of thunderstorms will bring a severe weather and flash flooding
  threat to much of North and Central Texas Friday into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The next couple days will be the start of an active 6-7 days across
the region. There is a risk of severe weather today, but the overall
severe threat is on the lower-end. Expect thunderstorms to develop
early this afternoon, increasing in coverage by the mid to late
afternoon and continue for parts of the area overnight into tomorrow
morning. Additional storms are forecast tomorrow, but the strongest
storms will remain to our west.

Warm and moist flow developed over the Southern Plains last weekend,
pumping plenty of available moisture into the region. A shallow cold
front is currently moving into Western North Texas while southerly
flow continues for the remainder of the forecast area in the open
warm sector. Aloft, broad ascent brought about by weak diffluence in
the upper-levels and a couple weak shortwave perturbations are
helping develop widespread light rain as of this writing (~1 pm).
Latest ACARS/Aircraft soundings still indicate a cap over the
region, so we haven`t seen many thunderstorms yet. However, as
lift works on the cap from above and below, we expect the cap to
erode over the next few hours. Breaks in the cloud cover will also
aid in destabilization/erosion of the cap and increased storm
potential as well.

We`ll be watching two main storm initiation zones today. One near the
front and another generally near/east of the I-35 corridor within a
broad region of low-level warm advection. Storms within the zone of
warm advection should start as showers that gradually blossom into
thunderstorms. Storms that develop near the front will develop a
little quicker.

The front should slowly move southwest this afternoon, stalling near
a line from Sherman/Denison to the DFW Metroplex to Stephenville a
couple hours before sunset. Once the front stalls, expect storm
coverage along the front to increase. Any storm that develops today
will have some severe potential. The main contributing factor to
severe weather is steep mid-level lapse rates and modest instability
with MLCAPE values between ~1500-2500. Deep-layer shear is weak and
disorganized, so expect a broken line of disorganized clusters or
multicells instead of organized supercells or a line of storms.
With that being said, a few zealous storms may be able to have
supercell characteristics and merging cold pools may form a
pseudo-line of storms, but the overall convective mode should be
messy. There will be a general movement of the larger-scale
cluster of storms that develops near the front this evening,
though. Expect it to slowly move east the first few hours after
development, then retreat north and west in the evening and
overnight hours with at least scattered storms continuing through
the night for portions of North Texas. The severe threat will also
be highest from about 4 pm to midnight, waning in the early
morning hours as instability decreases.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast to continue overnight
across North Texas as the front begins to wash out and waft north.
By daybreak, all precip should be near the Red River and eventually
move north into Oklahoma by about mid-morning. Since staunch
southerly flow will take hold of the region once again tomorrow and
the moist airmass hasn`t gone anywhere, a few warm-advection showers
or storms will be possible in the afternoon. We aren`t expecting any
of this activity to be severe, but will monitor the latest data to
assess the severe threat. The SPC does highlight an area of severe
weather tomorrow, but to our west near a dryline in West Texas and
the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Update...
The discussion below is still largely on-track and captures the
main threats. The key messages to take away is that we`ll remain
in an active pattern through at least Tuesday of next week. The
main severe threats will be Friday and Tuesday, while the threat
of flooding (both river and flash flooding) ramps up over the
weekend, especially Saturday, and early next week.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion...
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A more robust mid-level shortwave will enter the Central Plains on
Friday increasing a belt of southwesterlies over North and Central
Texas. A moist and unstable airmass will likely settle over the
region east of a dryline expected to reside west of I-35 by Friday
afternoon. The better synoptic-scale lift will remain north of our
forecast area, so low-level convergence along the dryline will
likely favor more scattered convection initially (especially with
concerns on how cloud cover impacts overall daytime
destabilization). 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and moderate
instability will promote the development of supercellular storms
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps even
a couple tornadoes. The greatest severe weather threat will exist
north of I-20 nearer to the Red River where sufficient low-level
SRH will likely overlap moderate instability for several hours
late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

More widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected Saturday into
Sunday as a cold front enters North and Central Texas and
persistent shortwaves move through the southwesterly flow aloft.
An anomalously moist airmass will lead to efficient rainfall rates
and localized flash flooding, especially in areas that observe
multiple rounds of storms and training storms. Keep an eye on the
forecast this week as we nail down the areas that may observe
higher rainfall totals (potentially 3+") this upcoming weekend.
This active weather pattern will likely continue into early next
week with rain chances in the forecast Monday through Wednesday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Ceilings this afternoon have largely lifted/scattered into a VFR
Cu/TCU field with south flow prevailing. Expect scattered showers to
continue through the afternoon, with showers gradually blossoming
into thunderstorms over the next few hours across much of the
region.

A cold front is currently northwest of D10 that will slowly move
southeast over the next few hours. Expect a cluster of storms to
develop near/over D10 near sunset when the front stalls over D10.
It`s hard to pinpoint exact thunderstorm timing and motions, but
generally expect storms to develop, move southeast, then move back
northwest a couple hours later. The chance of thunderstorm impacts
at the D10 TAF terminals themselves is pretty high, ~60%. Storms are
expected to continue pretty much all night for either northern D10
or over the northbound arrivals/departure gates.

For ACT...the front will stay well to the northwest, so the main
storm initiation will be due to the warm advection showers
blossoming into thunderstorms. These are much harder to predict,
but the most likely timing for storms on station is also late this
afternoon into the evening.

The cold front/thunderstorms will bring a northerly wind shift to
most of the D10 terminals this evening, but expect south flow to
return overnight along with MVFR ceilings. Additional scattered
showers, or perhaps a few isolated storms, are possible tomorrow,
but we will leave those details for future TAFs.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested across parts of North and
Central Texas this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  65  80  66 /  50  70  30  20
Waco                80  65  81  65 /  60  60  30  20
Paris               79  63  79  63 /  60  80  50  10
Denton              77  59  79  62 /  60  80  40  20
McKinney            78  63  79  65 /  60  80  40  20
Dallas              80  65  80  66 /  50  70  30  20
Terrell             80  64  82  65 /  50  70  30  20
Corsicana           82  67  84  67 /  50  40  20  10
Temple              81  65  83  65 /  50  40  30  20
Mineral Wells       74  60  81  63 /  50  70  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bonnette
LONG TERM....Bonnette/Langfeld
AVIATION...Bonnette